View Full Version : The Turkish-Kurdish Dilemma
I know we are discussing this in our US-Politics thread
I feel after hearing and watching the lastes news on this subject, a separate thread is needed.
In the lastest news I have heard the Syrian government have sent troops to engage the Turkish military who have invaded Northern Syria.
Immediately some questions popped up in my head.
1. Iran, Iran is what I know Syria's closest allied.
When and how will they assist Assad, if he need support ?
2. Russia, Russia is also one of Syria's closest allied and friend.
How will they assist Assad, if he need support ?
They are also in selling-mode friend with Turkey.
Markus
Skybird
10-13-19, 04:31 PM
1. Usually the Shia-Sunnio rivalry between Saudia Arabia and Iran gets a lot of attention - that Turkey also has ambitions to be the ruling dominator in the region often is overlooked. However, the Turks are no Arabs, and have a bad reputation amongst Arabs due to their brutal tyranny during the Ottoman empire. Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey all are rivals. Syria wanted to be that as well, so wanted Egypt, but both are busy with their own homework now.
Iran already supports Assad, with logistics, training, wepaons, special troops, intel. They probbaly will not themselves confront Turkish troops, since they already are in danger of getting a collision with the US in the Gulf. And why should they want that? For Iran, Syria is its proxy.
2. Russia, they will keep in mind that Turkey is a NATO member, formally at least, which of cours eis just a bad joke by now. Opening fire on Turkish military themselves could be the opening to an article 5 scenario, something that Turkey tries to trigger already now for its invasion of Syria. On the other side Moscow will not forget that the rifts between the US and Turkey are widening, and if they see a realistic chance to benefit from that rift and get away with striking Turkey due to Washington being too pissed by Turkey as if it would care any longer, they maybe will do. Syria for them is not just a proxy, but also a standing leg in the Mediterranean, they must balance between pleasing Assad and not getting drawn into a brawl that they do not want.
In other words: things are a bit complicated. Which is an understatement.
Note that I do not metion Europe. It plays no role here and is busy with dwarfening itsel further and further.
The Turks once again give evidence for why I am so strictly disliking them.
Bad fate for the Kurds. But they could have known that Washington would betray them. If I weere Europe, I would deliver them really strong SAM and ATGM weapons to knock turkish military out. And I would close the border to Turkey and send a strionbg fleet into the Adraeatic sea, selaing it off for migrants and Turkish navy as well. NBote that Turkey plays with fire offshore Cyprus as well, they want to claim the control of the gas fields there.
As I said, its all a bit complicated. The Kurds do pay the price once again. Its a ####### shame.
Libertarian that I am I of course support their natural right to decide for themselves if they want to be governed by foreign dictators or not. The claim by Turkey is invalid and a crime in itself. I am consistent there with my earlier opinions on independence movements in other regions.
I agree with the American pullout in principle. I however strictly oppose the conditions and circumstances and timing by which Trump has agreed to do so because Erdoghan wanted it. He took the most brutal way out, and not Americans but Kurds are bleeding for it. That is cyncial, and murderous.
Moscow giggles. And delivers Russian SAMs to Turkey and widneing the gap between the US and Turkey by that. Yes, they have no imminent need to react to anything, they collect dividends best by simply doing nothing and leaving their diplomatic game to like it is. Probably nobody in Syria is in such a comfortale position, like Russia. Putin realised the potential of the Syrian option early, long before the EU or Washington did, and set his bet on playing it strong. It pays off.
You are right it's very complicated
As some military expert said on Danish TV earlier
Now where Assad have sent his troops to engage the Turkish invasion the situation may turn from bad to worse.
Edit
Iran-I don't think the government in Teheran will send ordinary troops and equipment. I think they will encourage Iranian who have the skill to fight, to help Assad
I don't know how and if the R.G. will act if Assad needs help.
End of edit
Markus
Mr Quatro
10-13-19, 07:03 PM
@Sky Europe does play an important role they have taken in over a million refugees ... :yep:
@Sky Europe does play an important role they have taken in over a million refugees ... :yep:
I'll bet they will be taking in a whole lot more too once Erdogan opens the floodgates.
Skybird
10-13-19, 07:56 PM
The Arab League has condemned the Turkish invasion. Interestingly, Quatar, which was supported by Erdoghan in its conflict with Saudi arabia, shared the condemnation. So did the Palestinian Arabs - while in the past Erdoghan had posed as their advocate. Erdoghan can forget to "bribe" Arabs into liking the Turks by using soft power in their interest, so to make the Ottoman terror reign forgotten and a memory of the past - the old Arab ressentiment and even hate for the Turks has been revived by Erdoghan, already since his hidden support for the IS.
Many radical Islamists are fighting for the Turks, and reports have emerged that they are not any less barbaric and inhumane as the IS was. There are reports of mass executions of civilian Kurds, murdering of prisoners, and torture and atrocities. Mind you, Erdoghan already assisted the IS and granted them safe havens, medical treatment and supply centres on Turkish soil close behind the border years ago.
Kick Turkey out of NATO. What else must Erdoghan do to make Westerners understand what war criminal and terroist they pay court to? I think in no other country on the globe so many journalists and academics have been thrown into rpisonk, like in Erdoghan's AKP-Turkey. Oh, and stop gpoing o9n vacation in Turkey. Nothing threatens his power as much as big parts of business people and entrepreneurs turnign against him. Its wrong to argue that they are innocent and shall be saved. Give them a reason to be existentially angry at Erdoghan. Boycott their businesses.
The water and land border to Turkey must also be sealed off and militarily guarded - by forces from all across of Europe. Erdoghan threatens since days to open the floodgate. All credits go to Merkel. Europe's vulnerability to the Turkish blackmailing is her work and her "deal".
Another big deal maker. Oh my, there are already three of these... :doh: While the political order of the West is splitting up into pieces, these populists seem to enjoy a nesting boom.
Skybird
10-13-19, 08:07 PM
@Sky Europe does play an important role they have taken in over a million refugees ... :yep:Thats not the kind of role it should play. Most of these "refugees" will not go back, never. And in germany the govenrments sdtatistics just recently showed that the overhwelming majority of them doe snot work and actively refuses both working and integration. Less than 20% are currently work - and in the low wage sector. Jobs that will be the first being shut down once recession strikes in full. Migrant-committed crime however is thriving.
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/14911/scandinavia-crime
Its not different in Germany.
Else, what Europe does, is: nothing and by that displaying its impotence and weakness. Not even the money paid to Ankara gets stopped. Not even the status as formal EU candidate gets altered. NOTHING.
https://translate.google.de/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.andreas-unterberger.at%2F2019%2F10%2Fund-was-tut-europaij%2F
Skybird
10-14-19, 07:02 AM
Severla European polticians, Asselblom leading them apparently, wanred that is Syrian troops confront Turkish troops, this would trigger article 5 of the NATO treaty. But that trigger is in case of an attack on a NATO member. Turkey is not th eone being attacked, it is the one attacking others, violati8ng the sovereignt yof another nation unprvoked, and is the one thjat syria rightfullyx reserves the right to defend against.
How the hell could Turkey be rewarded by article 5 when they attack others first...?
Meanwhile, the German foreign minster showed the skillful art and high potence of German diplomacy in this crisis. He suggested that one should have a dialogue with Ankara. Bravo. Germany does once again what it does best. Please be so kind and excuse me for my nationality - I had no word in choosing the place of my birth.
Since decades the Germans have armed Turkey up from toes to teeth, warning them that they should not use the material and weapons in a conflict. But the whole German posture always was just carrots without whips.
Anyhow, activating article 5 means little if the Americans do not play in that team, and I doubt they would. And the Europeans would be insane to launch war against Russia in Syria. Washington has mad eit clear with the recent day'S events that they intend to leave problems in the backyard of Europe - to the Eurpopeans if these feel concerned.
Skybird
10-14-19, 07:18 AM
That the Kurds struck a deal with assad most likely also means the end of their current amount of autonomy. Profiteers are Assad, Russia, and Iran.
Loosers are the Kurds (but not as much as if they would face Turkey all alone), and indirectly Israeli interests.
For Turkey it possibly could, and hopefully will, turn into a boomerang.
ikalugin
10-14-19, 08:34 AM
I think we may be seeing some sort of mediation that would allow everyone to save face.
Jimbuna
10-14-19, 08:37 AM
The Kurds are on a hiding to nothing whichever way it pans out and as sad as it sounds, only Assad can save them.
They could always repay their western 'friends' by releasing all those IS people in the camps.
Skybird
10-14-19, 10:25 AM
"A Mr. Maas from Germany asks if we could maybe
brush over the lettering on the tail."
https://www.tagesspiegel.de/images/made_in_germany_ts2/25112904/2-format1007.jpg
(Maas is the apprentice at the top of the German foreign ministry whom hopeless optimists do not mind to refer to as the "foreign minister".
He is the one I mentioned before who suggested to react to Ankara's invasion by having a dialogue with Erdoghan).
Skybird
10-14-19, 11:01 AM
US special forces commanders feeling ashamed.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/13/world/middleeast/kurds-syria-turkey-trump.html?action=click&module=Top+Stories&pgtype=Homepage
Troops and officers also felt ashamed when being ordered to sit on the fence in 1991 and watching Saddam'S gunships massacring the Shia rebels. I recall a message in Newsweek from back then that really went under my skin, how it pushed the mood into the dumps, and stirred quite some anger at Bush. At that time, Saddam was not allowed to operate his air force in the embattled region. The gunships however were left to him - to make his massacre more effective. Those who were slauightered there, dared toi rise only due to encouragement and promise for assisdtane by Washington.
A big power wanting to be a biog power, will turn agai8nst its allies if it sees the need and interest to do so. Else it wiull neve rbecome and cannot stay a majopr playxer in the big global arenma. Still, when it acts like a traitor this way, it nevertehless gives a pitiful sight. And what it means for the moral of US troops on the ground in the region - well, use your imagination. Some may be happy to go home. But I tell you, many feel ashamed as well.
And Trumps tweets on the issue, quite some of them, are so sick and disconnected from reality and illustrate such a derranged, confused mind that they are simply just infuriating and leaves one wondering why any American can still believe that he is not mentally insane, sick.
As I have stated strongly before, and just to reiterate, if Turkey does anything that I, in my great and unmatched wisdom, consider to be off limits, I will totally destroy and obliterate the Economy of Turkey (I’ve done before!).
A German word comes to mind: Caesarenwahn. We once had a little Gefreiten from Austria who thought himself to be the greatest Heerführer ever. It later showed he wasn't.
The Kurds are on a hiding to nothing whichever way it pans out and as sad as it sounds, only Assad can save them.
They could always repay their western 'friends' by releasing all those IS people in the camps.
I have a feeling that those IS people, along with a whole lot more refugees that the Turks are holding will be headed Europe's way very soon no matter how this latest war pans out.
By reading Skybird's comments and the rest in my thread and watching the news I wonder if Turkey have, by starting this invasion of northern Syria, opened the Pandora's Box. Not fully open but a tiny bit.
What can our politicians or Presidents do ?
They can put sanction, embargo and some other diplomatically stuff against Turkey.
No fly-zone would this be an option ? Well knowing that bureaucracy is a high factor in every country, it could take years before this would be a reality.
And if it happened -the UN decided to create a no fly-zone over the Northern part of Syria, how eager would the western politicians be to give the order to attack an another member of NATO ?
Oh forgot something.
Can remember which one of you, my memory says Skybird, who once wrote that in the case a NATO member is attacked this Article 5 is not given...the politicians in the rest of the NATO, would hire/engage lawyers and Jurist to do what is needed to prevent or questioning this article 5.
Markus
US special forces commanders feeling ashamed.
That's too bad.
Special Forces commanders also felt ashamed when we abandoned the Montagnards and the Hmong and the Cuban Democratic Front or any number of others through the years and they'll be upset when we finally pull out of Afghanistan too. Mark my words.
I'm sure that SF commanders and other professional military types will decry the lost opportunities for promotions and medals but we can't stay over there forever playing terrorist group whack-a-mole and loosing our own people in the process. Maybe if we were making progress it'd be different but we aren't.
The mere 50 troops that we had on the Syrian/Turkish border were nothing but a tripwire to start a shooting war between us and Turkey.
Jimbuna
10-14-19, 12:35 PM
Syria's army has started to reach the north of the country, hours after the government agreed to help Kurdish forces facing Turkey.
State media said government forces, which are backed by Russia, had entered the strategic town of Tal Tamer, 30km (19 miles) south of the Turkish border.
For now, Syrian forces will not be deployed between Tal Abyad and Ras al-Ain, where Turkey has focused its efforts.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-50039106
It looks like neither side want to create a major conflict so heaven only knows what will happen next.
Skybird
10-14-19, 01:55 PM
By reading Skybird's comments and the rest in my thread and watching the news I wonder if Turkey have, by starting this invasion of northern Syria, opened the Pandora's Box. Not fully open but a tiny bit.
Turkey has had fighter son the ground south of the border since years. Only the scale of the operation has chnaged.
What can our politicians or Presidents do ?Nothing. Militarily too weak, too afraid, too much driven by special self itnerests (selling weapons, etc etc)
They can put sanction, embargo and some other diplomatically stuff against Turkey. Just today the NATO governments could jto even agree to stop all wepaon deioveries to Turkey. Stoltenberg left it to a vague suggestion not to döeiver them any weapons. Evberybody is afraid that The Turkish attack will be relabeled by An kara has a defence against Kurish terror and so: article 5. Nobody has the guts to confront the Turks and tell them: this way no way! Becasue Erdoghan threatens to open the floodgates that Merkel helped him to build to be used for future - and now present - blackmailing of Europe.
No fly-zone would this be an option ? Well knowing that bureaucracy is a high factor in every country, it could take years before this would be a reality.Who to enforce it? The Russian have established strong SAM umbrellas there. Any European attempt - not to mention the German attempt LOL - to enforce a no fly zone with own fighters there would totally depend on the Russians showing good will. Russia has not so much good will - Russia has interests. I totally object to military operations - always - of any kind that depend on the good will of a rival or potential enemy.
And if it happened -the UN decided to create a no fly-zone over the Northern part of Syria, how eager would the western politicians be to give the order to attack an another member of NATO ?The Europeans do not even stop the official EU membership candidate status of Turkey, nor do they even threaten to stop payments to Ankara. German foreing minister suggst a dialogue instead.
Oh forgot something.
Can remember which one of you, my memory says Skybird, who once wrote that in the case a NATO member is attacked this Article 5 is not given...the politicians in the rest of the NATO, would hire/engage lawyers and Jurist to do what is needed to prevent or questioning this article 5.Yes, both true. It was me, and article 5 indeed is not automatically forcing every member to indeed agree to that its conditions are fulfilled and so every nation must send help to the attacked nation. That is still so. A governbment can weasel out by disagreeing that the preconditions for activating article 5 are met. A very important legal criterion - not left in the formulation for no reason. States are not obligated to participate in NATO's military reaction because one members claims to be under attack or because the other states activate article 5, but because the individual goverment agrees to that article 5's necessary preconditions - a memeber is indeed under attack - is fulfilled.
Its the individual government's option to agree or disagree with NATO that an article 5 situation is given. The formulation is such that indeed there is a vagueness allowing to use a backdoor as an escape hatch. ASnd I absoltuely think that wa sintgentionally done this way. No government likes to be at the full mercy of others and to give up power over its own military policy. For this reason and due to its ties to the Balkan states states and culutrla closeness to the Russian orthodox church and its own pllticla closeness to marxism (it has always had a strong political left), Greece for example always was seen as an uncertain NATO member during the hot years of the cold war. Of course noboody admitted that. But I doubt that in case of the cold war turnign hot, indeed all NATO members would have been one united strong family.
Its not me saying this on article 5, but it has been law experts and historians alike. I just repeat what some of these said and wrote. Diplomatic pressure of course would be immense, so would be the threat of cretaing plltical costs and falloput even by sanciuto9nsiing the nation refusing to agree with an article 5 scneairo when alkl others agree to it.
But what if several nations refuse to accepot its valid activation...? LOL Like some natiosn also refuse to accept Brussels' commands on enforced migration.
Skybird
10-14-19, 02:52 PM
Heard on NPR today "the Kurdish militia" has sided with Bashar Hafez al-Assad's government to stand against attacks by Turkey into Syria. However what they failed to mention was WHICH Kurdish militia faction did so.
The Kurdish self-administration and its structures were based mainly on the YPG, and already has almost completely collapsed after the past 4 days. Having been the core of this structure, its most likely remnants of the YPG now being left.
The Kurds having run one third of Syria and self-administration without doubt now gone, this is a very good deal for Assad. But even if the Turks get driven out, the Kurds must then flee again - from Assad.
Rockstar
10-14-19, 02:55 PM
I also heard on the news that Russia, Turkey and Syria were in talks attempting to construct a demilitarized zone between Syrian and Turkish forces.
Catfish
10-14-19, 02:58 PM
If Erdoghan did anything positive it was to finally unite the Kurds.
Turkey obviously is hell-Bound for a genocide, and the Kurds did the only thing they thought helped them, after the West has betrayed them.
Assad and Putin must be celebrating.
Skybird
10-14-19, 03:19 PM
I also heard on the news that Russia, Turkey and Syria were in talks attempting to construct a demilitarized zone between Syrian and Turkish forces.
Yes, and it means that Putin is the biggest winner of all this. It installs Russia as the indispensable mediator in Syria. Nothing goes anymore without his nodding and against his will. Bringing Turkey away from the west also means mounting tensions inside NATO, by these a distraction of NATO from the Black Sea region (where there is Turkey'S coastline and the Crimnean peninsula), and more wedges pushed deep into the rift between America and Europe.
Champagne in Moscow these days.
ikalugin
10-14-19, 03:23 PM
The Kurdish self-administration and its structures were based mainly on the YPG, and already has almost completely collapsed after the past 4 days. Having been the core of this structure, its most likely remnants of the YPG now being left.
The Kurds having run one third of Syria and self-administration without doubt now gone, this is a very good deal for Assad. But even if the Turks get driven out, the Kurds must then flee again - from Assad.
Under Assad Kurds can work out a better deal for autonomy, etc, as Assad has many other problems to work with and he does not have any Kurd specific grievances from what I recall.
Same applies to Russia - we have been flexible in the past, with pro-Turkish groups for example.
Read this in the Swedish news some hours ago
(have used google translate)
It is still unclear what role Russia will play since its allies in the Syrian army decided to fight against Turkey's offensive.
Contacts have been made between the countries, both at political and military level, said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov
at a press conference on Monday.
Peskov also said that they "do not want
think of "a military conflict
with Turkey, writes the Moscow Times.
(should this happen. I'm almost 100 % sure the other NATO members would say
things like You(Turkey)provoke this attack article 5 is not activated)
Relations between the countries have
improved in recent years, despite the fact that they
supports various sides of the war in Syria.
Markus
Rockstar
10-14-19, 04:25 PM
If Erdoghan did anything positive it was to finally unite the Kurds.
Turkey obviously is hell-Bound for a genocide, and the Kurds did the only thing they thought helped them, after the West has betrayed them.
Assad and Putin must be celebrating.
For years we have told to believe to see the Kurds as one group fighting for, can you guess? That's right, freedom and democracy!
But I tend to think there are divisions, tribes within tribes and uniting the Kurds I doubt could ever happen. In fact Id wager the faction which sided with Syria is probably all too happy to see the others now considered as rebels and get shot too pieces by Syria or by Turkey.
Skybird
10-14-19, 04:45 PM
Under Assad Kurds can work out a better deal for autonomy, etc, as Assad has many other problems to work with and he does not have any Kurd specific grievances from what I recall.
Same applies to Russia - we have been flexible in the past, with pro-Turkish groups for example.
We know since years that where the Syrians won in the past years, and Kurds were defeated and stayed, identified opponents of Assad got brought down. They have all reason to fear retaliation. Like the father, so the son.
And now General Bone Spurs and his unmatched wisdom, has opened a highway for Iran to send weapons to Hezbollah, with no one to stop it. Got to puke over his so called wisdom!
Wow those 50 US troops were sure busy!
Jimbuna
10-15-19, 04:11 AM
The US has imposed sanctions on Turkish ministries and senior government officials in response to the country's military offensive in northern Syria.
President Donald Trump also phoned his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan to demand an immediate truce, Vice-President Mike Pence said.
Mr Pence said he would travel to the region "as quickly as possible".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-50050264
What was it Todd/Lehmann once taught me the meaning of?
'A day late and a dollar short'
Skybird
10-15-19, 06:17 AM
Obviously Erdoghan has seen no reaosn at all to understand his earlier phone call with Trump the way Pence now describes that it had been back then. Somebody tries to get the toothpaste back into the tube after he squeezed it.
Rockstar
10-15-19, 06:37 AM
And now General Bone Spurs and his unmatched wisdom, has opened a highway for Iran to send weapons to Hezbollah, with no one to stop it. Got to puke over his so called wisdom!
No one? Take your pick of Syrian rebels or government forces all are accepting volunteers. You'll fit in better if you grow a beard and don't forget your sunscreen. Go for it, you only live once put your money where mouth is and dont forget to write. btw we still have troops in Iraq and Saudi Arabia.
"I'm fed up to the ears with old men dreaming up wars for young men to die in." ~ George S. McGovern
Jimbuna
10-15-19, 06:39 AM
The UK government is to suspend arms export licences to Turkey amid concerns over its military operation in northern Syria, Downing Street has said.
Speaking in the Commons, Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said the UK would keep its exports to Turkey under "very careful and continual review".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-50056358
'A day late and a pound short'
Catfish
10-15-19, 07:04 AM
"Trump sanctions fail to slow Turkey assault; Moscow's allies advance.
Trump’s unexpected decision to withhold protection from Syria’s Kurds after a phone call with Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan a week ago swiftly upended five years of U.S. policy in the Middle East, giving a free hand to Washington’s adversaries in the world’s deadliest ongoing war."
America's adversaries maybe, but not Trump's.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-syria-security-turkey-usa/trump-sanctions-fail-to-slow-turkey-assault-moscows-allies-advance-idUSKBN1WU1D8
Mr Quatro
10-15-19, 07:16 AM
It could've gone the other way:
"Breaking News"
"Turkey attacks Kurds killing all fifty US defenders
Bracketing the 1,000 man Special Forces nearby
Putting them on the run"
"Congress demands immediate military action"
Jimbuna
10-15-19, 07:19 AM
It could've gone the other way:
"Breaking News"
"Turkey attacks Kurds killing all fifty US defenders
Bracketing the 1,000 man Special Forces nearby
Putting them on the run"
"Congress demands immediate military action"
True that but there are many out there who would have taken that chance I suspect.
Rockstar
10-15-19, 07:35 AM
Ok here's what I have understood so far. In brief, our reason for being in Syria I was first told was to stop ISIS. Then it appeared we were actually there to assist the many militant political factions oust Syrian president Bashar Hafez al-Assad. The U.S. I think wisely removes itself form that crap hole. Now from what I've read Turkey, a NATO member, has been for years arming anti-Assad forces and is currently encroaching on Syrian territory with the removal of Assad in mind. Now it is the Iran-led Shiite ideology and the Turkey-backed Muslim Brotherhood movements fighting.
With Russia back on the defensive standing in between the two trying to protect their interests in Syria again. удачи :har:
ikalugin
10-15-19, 08:12 AM
Our interests are mostly in Alawite coastal areas and thus safu.
u crank
10-15-19, 08:16 AM
America did not get involved in Syria to be the Kurds bodyguards. Kurds and Turks have been fighting for centuries. Are Americans going to have a permanent military presence in Syria to accomplish this goal of 'protecting the Kurds'? How much will it cost? How long will it last? How many (God forbid) American lives will be given up to accomplish this? The neocon war mongers who criticize Trump's withdrawal never address these questions. The correct answers by them are ... the more the better, the longer the better and don't care.
Skybird
10-15-19, 08:26 AM
Ok here's what I have understood so far. In brief, our reason for being in Syria I was first told was to stop ISIS. Then it appeared we were actually there to assist the many militant political factions oust Syrian president Bashar Hafez al-Assad. The U.S. I think wisely removes itself form that crap hole. Now from what I've read Turkey, a NATO member, has been for years arming anti-Assad forces and is currently encroaching on Syrian territory with the removal of Assad in mind. Now it is the Iran-led Shiite ideology and the Turkey-backed Muslim Brotherhood movements fighting.
While I can see, and to major parts support, the American attitude of wanting to get out there, my quarrel is with the timing and conditions under which this pulling out has been initiated, not minding to break lots of glas and porcellaine and not caring for betraying an ally who already had bled for you and now you throw him before a monster that has in principle genocide on mind. Trump obviously did not warn Erdoghan of attacking into Northern Syria, and did not tell him of crippling sanctions or any other means that would have stopped Erdoghan from doing what he did. Not before the global echo condemned Trump as well, even parts of his own party tunrign against him over Syria, he suddenly wanted to push the paste he squeezed out back into the tube again. And while he starts to do his wonderful Trumponian magic again, born out of his great and unmatched wisdom (tm) of course, Kurds already got killed by hundreds if not thousands, and atrocities and acts of genocide are already being carried out by Erodghan's fundamentalist allies. Trumps uses his great and ummatched wisdom (tm) - and the Kurds pay the price in blood and lives and torment.
You can leave a lame party you do not like, and do so with some tactful choosing of opportunity and wording, or you leave like an elephant in a glasshouse, smashing evertyhing, breaking everything, demolating the furniture and all windows, not minding the hosts' family and friends slashing their hands and feet in all the broken glass, and not caring for it. I accept America wanting to choose the first, and then following that line. I dispise it for having chosen the latter and not minding the damages it leaves behind for others to get along with.
Rockstar
10-15-19, 08:35 AM
"Trump sanctions fail to slow Turkey assault; Moscow's allies advance.
Trump’s unexpected decision to withhold protection from Syria’s Kurds after a phone call with Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan a week ago swiftly upended five years of U.S. policy in the Middle East, giving a free hand to Washington’s adversaries in the world’s deadliest ongoing war."
America's adversaries maybe, but not Trump's.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-syria-security-turkey-usa/trump-sanctions-fail-to-slow-turkey-assault-moscows-allies-advance-idUSKBN1WU1D8
I dont think sanctions placed by any NATO member is meant to slow Turkey down. It's just meant to look good in front of the camera.
Skybird
10-15-19, 08:43 AM
WP reports Russian troops are now patrolling the spaces separating Syrian and Turkish forces.
Russia starts to completely fill the vaccum the Americans left behind. Putin must find it hard these days to stop grinning.
Mr Quatro
10-15-19, 08:50 AM
I just saw that 5 minutes ago couldn't believe it ... This is no port city :hmmm:
Jimbuna
10-15-19, 09:00 AM
I just saw that 5 minutes ago couldn't believe it ... This is no port city :hmmm:
Many will see it as American overseas influence in dramatic decline.
Rockstar
10-15-19, 09:03 AM
While I can see, and to major parts support, the American attitude of wanting to get out there, my quarrel is with the timing and conditions under which this pulling out has been initiated, not minding to break lots of glas and porcellaine and not caring for betraying an ally who already had bled for you and now you throw him before a monster that has in principle genocide on mind. Trump obviously did not warn Erdoghan of attacking into Northern Syria, and did not tell him of crippling sanctions or any other means that would have stopped Erdoghan from doing what he did. Not before the global echo condemned Trump as well, even parts of his own party tunrign against him over Syria, he suddenly wanted to push the paste he squeezed out back into the tube again. And while he starts to do his wonderful Trumponian magic again, born out of his great and unmatched wisdom (tm) of course, Kurds already got killed by hundreds if not thousands, and atrocities and acts of genocide are already being carried out by Erodghan's fundamentalist allies. Trumps uses his great and ummatched wisdom (tm) - and the Kurds pay the price in blood and lives and torment.
You can leave a lame party you do not like, and do so with some tactful choosing of opportunity and wording, or you leave like an elephant in a glasshouse, smashing evertyhing, breaking everything, demolating the furniture and all windows, not minding the hosts' family and friends slashing their hands and feet in all the broken glass, and not caring for it. I accept America wanting to choose the first, and then following that line. I dispise it for having chosen the latter and not minding the damages it leaves behind for others to get along with.
I dont like it either. Other than the 'freedom and democracy' rhetoric it never was very clear to me why we were in Syria to begin with but I'll say this it sure as hell wasn't to make friends. We cant achieve goals if there were no clear goals stated so I dont see how our departure could have been any different. As u crank mentioned the wars and animosities between tribes and political factions in the middle east are centuries old. Nothing really changed, it was a quagmire when we arrived and still a quagmire when we left and nobody here ever said they had to keep fighting and killing each other.
The neocon war mongers who criticize Trump's withdrawal never address these questions. The correct answers by them are ... the more the better, the longer the better and don't care.
Then there is the Orange Man Bad crowd who claim to care what happens to the Kurds but only because it targets Trump. Politics makes strange bedfellows.
Was thinking of asking if some of you could foresee what would happen if this Turkish invasion of Northern Syria turns into a regular war between these two countries.
So far they have been fighting against each other by proxy.
Later in the evening I heard on the News Russian forces have placed them between Turkish and Syrians forces.
Trying to negotiate a cease fire
I doubt they will succeed. Erdogan is firm in his goal.
Furthermore, if Syria engage Turkish forces, wouldn't Turkey not see this as:
Ok we have to eliminate the Syrian threat to reach our goal.
Just a thought.
Markus
Skybird
10-15-19, 05:33 PM
I think it is the other way aorund than you thik. Most likely Erdoghan currently learns that he can do little without Putin's approval. The Russian defence ministry is in close contact with the Turks. America is in a weak poosition now toweards Ankara, their sanction thread is a weak threat. Pence and Pompeo have no clubs and sticks to carry when they travel to Ankara soon. Washingtoin is pissed, and relatiosn are quickly eroding further. Moscow is filling the seat the more the more it becomes vacant, its a great opportunity to erode and weaken NATO from within.
What we see in Syria is not just a changing of regional game rules. Its the end of "the West" as it once was known. America is in self-chosen withdrawel. Europe is militarily too impotent to pose as an actor on the world stage. "The West" as a political infleunce and military force to count with, is no more.
Syria has become for Russia much more than just a foothold in the mediterranean. I do not know and am not certain whether Putin has indeed forseen that when he started to play the Syria card many years ago - if he had planned this outcome, then I have to compliment him for that strategic foresight. Well played. Not to our European pleasure, but in Russia'S own Russian interest: damn well played. Shows good strategic instinct. Considering that Russia is under eocnomic sanctions still, and some years ago they already sung requiems for its economy - and today they are stronger than ever before since the USSR collapsed, and have gotten rid of their dollar reserves practically completely, and buy gold like crazy.
The requiem definitely was sung too early.
America weaklens itselkf with Trumpo. Europe ios weak as always, and yearns to becom e ever weaker. They now want to get Albania and North Mazuedonia as new EU members. Not really new members with a net contribution to the EU. In other words: the EU turns weaker.
I think that historians in the future will see Europe's failure in Syria as an important timestamp marking a significant achievement in its ongoing fall into irrelevance.
And then there is Israel. It must really hate what is taking place in recent years. It must hate it.
^ If those Middle east expert who now and then appear on Danish and Swedish tv are correct, then you are right-USA are loosing more and more influens in the Middle East.
Another thing-reading some of your comments like the last one gave me a sort of Deja Vu.
Like history is repeating itself.
Markus
ikalugin
10-16-19, 03:46 AM
@skybird
Our strategy in Syria is emergent not deliberate, ie beyond few core goals (fighting terrorism, securing coastal bases - both of which have already been achieved) we are open to whatever deal is available. Back after the Su24M shot down we were open to, for example, supporting Kurds against Turks, up to and including Yemen style deal with Tochkas popping up in Kurdistan.
Now I think Russia is mostly playing a powerbroker, in this case negotiating a compromise where Kurds surrender to Assad (the least evil for them) on terms of good autonomy, but restrictions on political activity (esp cross border kind), with a buffer zone where Turks can dump their refugee/imigrant camps.
Jimbuna
10-16-19, 05:52 AM
I think it is the other way aorund than you thik. Most likely Erdoghan currently learns that he can do little without Putin's approval. The Russian defence ministry is in close contact with the Turks. America is in a weak poosition now toweards Ankara, their sanction thread is a weak threat. Pence and Pompeo have no clubs and sticks to carry when they travel to Ankara soon. Washingtoin is pissed, and relatiosn are quickly eroding further. Moscow is filling the seat the more the more it becomes vacant, its a great opportunity to erode and weaken NATO from within.
What we see in Syria is not just a changing of regional game rules. Its the end of "the West" as it once was known. America is in self-chosen withdrawel. Europe is militarily too impotent to pose as an actor on the world stage. "The West" as a political infleunce and military force to count with, is no more.
Syria has become for Russia much more than just a foothold in the mediterranean. I do not know and am not certain whether Putin has indeed forseen that when he started to play the Syria card many years ago - if he had planned this outcome, then I have to compliment him for that strategic foresight. Well played. Not to our European pleasure, but in Russia'S own Russian interest: damn well played. Shows good strategic instinct. Considering that Russia is under eocnomic sanctions still, and some years ago they already sung requiems for its economy - and today they are stronger than ever before since the USSR collapsed, and have gotten rid of their dollar reserves practically completely, and buy gold like crazy.
The requiem definitely was sung too early.
America weaklens itselkf with Trumpo. Europe ios weak as always, and yearns to becom e ever weaker. They now want to get Albania and North Mazuedonia as new EU members. Not really new members with a net contribution to the EU. In other words: the EU turns weaker.
I think that historians in the future will see Europe's failure in Syria as an important timestamp marking a significant achievement in its ongoing fall into irrelevance.
And then there is Israel. It must really hate what is taking place in recent years. It must hate it.
Most insightful Sky.
Skybird
10-16-19, 06:44 AM
@skybird
Our strategy in Syria is emergent not deliberate, ie beyond few core goals (fighting terrorism, securing coastal bases - both of which have already been achieved) we are open to whatever deal is available. Back after the Su24M shot down we were open to, for example, supporting Kurds against Turks, up to and including Yemen style deal with Tochkas popping up in Kurdistan.
Now I think Russia is mostly playing a powerbroker, in this case negotiating a compromise where Kurds surrender to Assad (the least evil for them) on terms of good autonomy, but restrictions on political activity (esp cross border kind), with a buffer zone where Turks can dump their refugee/imigrant camps.
I see Putin's cleverness in the fact that he ran from beginning on a strategy in Syria that optimally manipulated chances to maximise his degrees of freedoms in the future, no matter how the specific details of such future would look. It compares a bit to how you play Backgammon: you cannot forsee all the dice results coming in the future, but you can lay out your own pieces as optimal as you can with te diece you already got, to optmise your options for any dice result coming in the future. In this understanding, yes, his strategy was an emerging one, as you called it - but also one with a very well laid fundament. I think he has seen the deep-reaching geostraeteic relevance of Syria very early, thats why he e,barke don it so early and with such brute detem,rination, leavign no doubt that Russia's interest to keep syria was absolutely serious. Compared to that the European and American stomping blindly around in the Middle East, is clueless and shortsighted. It is here where Russia has had a strong interest for sure to get a headless, emotion-driven shortsighted stupdi like Trump into the WH - if the psychological profile they must have done of him was correct (and apparently it was!), then he was the ideal American opponent for Russia in that he would allow Russia by his decision-making and general attitude to do what russia wanted to do, and to run its own game with no serious american opposition, and America not even preventing that the rift between the US and Europe, the rift inside NATO, is widening. I am convinced that the Kremlin did what it could to influence the elections and make Trump the winner. They must have wanted him, else they would have been stupid. And look what Russia got: an America that is almost taken off the global playfield and is fully engaged in playing with its own little Willie, while doing so being no threat to Russia's game of dealing new cards in the ME, and Europe. The opposition in America also is deadlocked and taken out, is fixiated on Trump and does not have time left to direct attention to foreign policies.
Seen this way, Russia is currently the by far most aggressively acting player at the table beside China. And it is extremely clever and competent in hiding this. Trump on the other hand collects translucent wins. Putin also can build on a revival of the youth's strong interest and love for left, socialist conceptions throughout the Westm, the money crisis and debt crisis play sinto Russia hands again, for it raises anger at the capitalist base structure of the West, weakening it further. . Herr ein germany, Germans are kind of Americaphobe by genes it seems, and Russophile at the same time. Putin might not be able to indeed serve to these interests (he is no old Marxist and also no Stalinist, but he knows how to use the popularity of the Stalin cult for his purposes), but they provide him an inherent willingness to give Russia the benefit of doubt under circumstances where America already would have been condemned once again. A subtle game. A game with high pay-offs. A game of long breath and foresight. None that Trump knows how to play. He is just marching from day to day, on stomping feet.
Everybody doing martial arts knows that cowboy-walking with wide legs and long steps - gives you a very weak stand. Its not strength, but just posing.
ikalugin
10-16-19, 08:19 AM
About the strategy, here is a good take:
https://eng.globalaffairs.ru/book/What-Kind-of-Victory-for-Russia-in-Syria-19404
By Kofman&co
In general I would point out that we tend to lack a long term strategy, the leadership style of Putin is that he solves issues as they arise.
p.s. Remember the West backed Syrian rebels (FSA&co)? I don't either.
Skybird
10-16-19, 10:13 AM
In general I would point out that we tend to lack a long term strategy, the leadership style of Putin is that he solves issues as they arise.
That could very well be so. But he tries to manipulate chances for issues rising so that once they rise they are more in his favour or of a kind that he can handle them. My comparison to Backgammon desroibes best, imo, what I mean. You cannot forsee the dice results coming,. but you can optimise your pieces' positions so to maximise your degrees of freedom for eny future dice rolls coming, no matter what they are. By that you are prepared for a greater number of possible dice results, you have more possible good moves in a higher number of possible dice results. You will still lose some single games that way, when in one game the dice are too often against you - but by laws of probability, over the many games of a full match you will win the match nevertheless.
Jimbuna
10-16-19, 10:28 AM
Could this be a partial consequence of what has happened regarding the Kurds?
This week has seen a full ceremonial 21-gun salute for President Vladimir Putin in the capital, an audience with the king and crown prince, a host of bilateral deals and a seismic strategic recalculation in the region as Saudi Arabia's US allies effectively abandon the Kurds to their fate in northern Syria.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-50054546
Skybird
10-16-19, 10:34 AM
The article you linked to, focusses, amongst others, on why Russia went into the Syrian match so determined, and lists the factors in the years before. That is what I mean by my earlier epxlanations: to see the current situation emerging form the olpast events (your hinting) and trying to influence the present and the imminent future for getting better chances to get an outcome in the distant future by taking influence with all determination on the curren situation - my hinting. Back then the West was clueless over what to do in the face of such a drastic Russian detmeirnaiton by which Putin made it clear that Russia engaged itself in sYria and meant to stay, many in the West had not expected that and thought it was almost irrational. In those early years I said that the West would be best advsied to stay out of Syria compoletely, and leave it to the Russians, sincer they had more solid and - at least in my opinion -obvious interests there. The article describes these quite well. I was against the Wetsen engagement, becasue as I saw it it would just help the rebels to extend the duraiton of the war tzhat envertheless they could not win once the Russia started to do what was needed to do in order to guarantee Assad surviving - and even victoriously so. But for the West, prjecting this outcome was thing never wans meant to be because it never should be, and so the Russian interests got ignored and almost ridiculed.
And now we are where we are. Well. I stick to it: game, set and match Putin. The Kurds, and politically also the EU, are the big loosers in all this. The EU's diplomatic "strategy" over this issue, is in ruins, and all mockery is at the EU's cost. And deservedly so. To say their way to play it was amateurish, would be an understatement. But look closer at their political top staff, and you hardly can be surprised.
Heard some very interesting stuff on the radio today.
It was in the 3 o'clock news.
A Danish Journalist from a Danish Newspaper said in an interview that this Turkish invasion of the Northern Syria was due to some secret agreement between these two states.
Hmm very interesting theory I must say.
Lets play some war game scenario.
1. The Syrian government carry out a full-scale attack on the Kurds, with military support from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and this terrorist group (forgot their name) And perhaps with logistical help from the Russians.
What type of response could we expect from USA and Europe(NATO)
2. Syria carry out a full-scale attack on the Kurds, with military aid from Russia, Iran and this terror group
Response from our Western leaders ?
There could be many more scenarios.
Markus
Mr Quatro
10-16-19, 01:35 PM
Israel is concerned: https://biblehub.com/jeremiah/50-3.htm
Jeremiah 50:3
For a nation from the north will come against her; it will make her land desolate. No one will be living in it-- both man and beast will escape. For a nation from the north will go up against her. It will make her land into an object of horror, and no one will live in it.
Christians have long held that the true enemy of the Holy Land of Israel will be Russia, but I go a step farther and think perhaps Turkey after a nuclear war with Russia leaves them too davasted to fight a normal war.
Did you know that Turkey is holding 50 old cold war nuclear weapons in storage and that America has been trying to negotiate a way to remove them for years?
Skybird
10-16-19, 01:41 PM
Did you know that Turkey is holding 50 old cold war nuclear weapons in storage and that America has been trying to negotiate a way to remove them for years?
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/14/world/middleeast/trump-turkey-syria.html
Because that is a subscription site now, here is the text:
President Trump’s acquiescence to Turkey’s move to send troops deep inside Syrian territory has in only one week’s time turned into a bloody carnage, forced the abandonment of a successful five-year-long American project to keep the peace on a volatile border, and given an unanticipated victory to four American adversaries: Russia, Iran, the Syrian government (https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/13/world/middleeast/syria-turkey-invasion-isis.html?module=inline) and the Islamic State.
Rarely has a presidential decision resulted so immediately in what his own party leaders have described as disastrous consequences for American allies and interests. How this decision happened — springing from an “off-script moment” with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey, in the generous description of a senior American diplomat — probably will be debated for years by historians, Middle East experts and conspiracy theorists.
But this much already is clear: Mr. Trump ignored months of warnings from his advisers about what calamities likely would ensue if he followed his instincts to pull back from Syria and abandon America’s longtime allies, the Kurds. He had no Plan B, other than to leave. The only surprise is how swiftly it all collapsed around the president and his depleted, inexperienced foreign policy team.
Day after day, they have been caught off-guard, offering up differing explanations of what Mr. Trump said to Mr. Erdogan, how the United States and its allies might respond, and even whether Turkey remains an American ally. For a while Mr. Trump said he acted because the Islamic State was already defeated, and because he was committed to terminating “endless wars” by pulling American troops out of the Middle East. By the end of the week he added 2,000 — to Saudi Arabia.
One day he was inviting Mr. Erdogan to visit (https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/08/us/politics/trump-erdogan-turkey-visit.html?module=inline) the White House; the next he was threatening to “totally destroy and obliterate” Turkey’s economy (https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/11/us/politics/turkey-sanctions-syria-kurds-trump.html?module=inline) if it crossed a line that he never defined.
Mr. Erdogan just kept going.
Mr. Trump’s error, some aides concede in off-the-record conversations, was entering the Oct. 6 call underprepared, and then failing to spell out for Mr. Erdogan the potential consequences — from economic sanctions to a contraction of Turkey’s alliance with the United States and its standing in NATO. He has since threatened both, retroactively, and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said later Monday that the president had signed an executive order (https://twitter.com/SecPompeo/status/1183870172211437569) authorizing sanctions on individuals or associates of Turkey’s government who “endanger civilians or lead to the further deterioration of peace, security and stability in northeast Syria.” But it is not clear whether Mr. Erdogan believes that poses a real risk.
The drama is nowhere near over. Out of necessity, the Kurds switched sides (https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/13/world/middleeast/syria-turkey-invasion-isis.html?module=inline) on Sunday, turning their backs on Washington and signing up with President Bashar al-Assad of Syria, a man the United States has called a war criminal for gassing his own people. At the Pentagon, officials struggled with the right response if Turkish forces — NATO allies — again opened fire on any of the 1,000 or so Americans now preparing to retreat from their positions inside Syria. Those troops are trapped for now, since Turkey has cut off the roads; removing them may require an airlift.
And over the weekend, State and Energy Department officials were quietly reviewing plans for evacuating roughly 50 tactical nuclear weapons that the United States had long stored, under American control, at Incirlik Air Base in Turkey, about 250 miles from the Syrian border, according to two American officials.
Those weapons, one senior official said, were now essentially Erdogan’s hostages. To fly them out of Incirlik would be to mark the de facto end of the Turkish-American alliance. To keep them there, though, is to perpetuate a nuclear vulnerability that should have been eliminated years ago.
“I think this is a first — a country with U.S. nuclear weapons stationed in it literally firing artillery at US forces,” Jeffrey Lewis of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies wrote last week.
For his part, Mr. Erdogan claims nuclear ambitions of his own: Only a month ago, speaking to supporters, he said he “cannot accept” rules that keep Turkey from possessing nuclear weapons of its own.
“There is no developed nation in the world that doesn’t have them,” (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-nuclear-erdogan/erdogan-says-its-unacceptable-that-turkey-cant-have-nuclear-weapons-idUSKCN1VP2QN) he said. (In fact, most do not.)
“This president keeps blindsiding our military and diplomatic leaders and partners with impulsive moves like this that benefit Russia and authoritarian regimes,” said Senator Jack Reed, the Rhode Island Democrat and longtime member of the Armed Services Committee.
“If this president were serious about ending wars and winning peace, he’d actually articulate a strategy that would protect against a re-emergence of ISIS and provide for the safety of our Syrian partners,” Mr. Reed added. “But he has repeatedly failed to do that. Instead, this is another example of Donald Trump creating chaos, undermining U.S. interests, and benefiting Russia and the Assad regime.”
The other major beneficiary is Iran, perhaps Mr. Trump’s most talked-about geopolitical foe, which has long supported the Syrian regime and sought freer rein across the country.
Mr. Trump tried another defense on Monday, via Twitter. Clearly sensitive about the critique that he was abandoning a longtime ally, he wrote (https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1183822494031065088) that “anyone who wants to assist Syria in protecting the Kurds is good with me, whether it is Russia, China, or Napoleon Bonaparte. I hope they all do great, we are 7,000 miles away!”
It was another example of Mr. Trump’s taking a 1930s view of how to defend the nation, ignoring the power vacuums filled by adversaries and making the case that distance is the ultimate protection. The lessons of economic interdependency, the Sept. 11 attacks and the era of cyberconflict suggest otherwise.
As the situation continued to devolve, senior administration officials stepped forward to try to reverse the damage.
In an unscheduled appearance in the White House driveway, Vice President Mike Pence told reporters that Mr. Trump had asked Mr. Erdogan for an immediate cease-fire — part of the executive order that Mr. Pompeo announced — adding that the president had not given a “green light” for Turkish forces to invade Syria.
“The United States of America wants Turkey to stop the invasion,” Mr. Pence said, “to implement an immediate cease-fire and to begin to negotiate with Kurdish forces in Syria to bring an end to the violence.”
He said the president had directed him to lead a delegation to Turkey alongside Robert O’Brien, the president’s new national security adviser, to negotiate directly with Mr. Erdogan.
The horrors that have played out with lightning speed were clearly not anticipated by Mr. Trump, who has no fondness for briefing books and meetings in the Situation Room intended to game out events two or three moves ahead. Instead, he often talks about trusting his instincts.
“My gut tells me more sometimes than anybody else’s brain can ever tell me," he said late last year. He was discussing the Federal Reserve, but could just as easily have been talking foreign policy; in 2017 he told a reporter, right after his first meeting with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, that it was his “gut feel” for how to deal with foreign leaders, honed over years in the real estate world, that guided him. “Foreign policy is what I’ll be remembered for,” he said.
But in this case the failure to look around corners has blown up on him at a speed that is rare in foreign policy and national security. The closest analogue may date to 1950, during Harry Truman’s administration, when Secretary of State Dean Acheson described America’s new “defense perimeter” in a speech, saying it ran from southern Japan through the Philippines. That left out the Korean Peninsula, and two weeks later Joseph Stalin, the Soviet leader, appeared to have given Kim Il-sung, grandfather of the current North Korean leader, permission to launch his invasion of the South. The bloody stalemate that followed lives with the United States today.
At the time, the United States kept a token force in South Korea, akin to the one parked along the Turkish-Syrian border. And it is impossible to know whether the North Korean attack would have been launched even without Mr. Acheson’s failure to warn about American action if a vulnerable ally was attacked — just as it is impossible to know if Mr. Erdogan would have sent his troops over the border if that phone call, and Mr. Trump’s failure to object, had never happened.
It was Mr. Trump himself who, during a presidential debate with Hillary Clinton in 2016, blamed President Barack Obama for a similar error. “President Obama and Secretary Clinton created a vacuum the way they got out of Iraq,” he said, referring to the 2011 withdrawal. “They shouldn’t have been in, but once they got in, the way they got out was a disaster. And ISIS was formed.”
Even his allies see the parallel. “If I didn’t see Donald Trump’s name on the tweet I thought it would be Obama’s rationale for getting out of Iraq,” Senator Lindsey Graham, one of Mr. Trump’s most vociferous defenders in recent years, but among his harshest Republican critics for the Syria decision, said last week.
As James F. Jeffrey, who worked for Mr. Obama as ambassador to Turkey, then to Iraq, and now serves as Mr. Trump’s special envoy for Syria, noted several years ago, it is debatable whether events would have played out differently if the United States had stayed in Iraq.
“Could a residual force have prevented ISIS’s victories? (https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/behind-the-u.s.-withdrawal-from-iraq)” he asked in a Wall Street Journal essay five years ago. “With troops we would have had better intelligence on Al Qaeda in Iraq and later ISIS, a more attentive Washington, and no doubt a better-trained Iraqi army. But the common argument that U.S. troops could have produced different Iraqi political outcomes is hogwash. The Iraqi sectarian divides, which ISIS exploited, run deep and were not susceptible to permanent remedy by our troops at their height, let alone by 5,000 trainers under Iraqi restraints.”
Mr. Trump may now be left to make the same argument about Syria: That nothing could have stopped Mr. Erdogan, that the Russians would benefit in any case, that there are other ways to push back at Iran. Perhaps history will side with him.
For now, however, he has given up most of what little leverage he had.
:)
Well. Instinct cannot replace intellect and insight, Donald. ;) And sometimes claiming "instinct" serves as a foul excuse for lacking intellect and insight.
Mr Quatro
10-16-19, 02:18 PM
He (meaning VP Pence) said the president had directed him to lead a delegation to Turkey alongside Robert O’Brien, the president’s new national security adviser, to negotiate directly with Mr. Erdogan.
Just one problem Mr Erdogan has said that he won't order a cease fire nor will he meet with VP Pence and that he will meet with President Trump only.
Rockstar
10-16-19, 03:44 PM
OK gents, I know in the news "the Kurds"seem to be the latest most talked about subject. And I think have lead you all to believe there is some united front for an independent state founded on freedom and democracy who got screwed, blah blah. But when you say' the Kurds' were this or 'the Kurds' were that, 'the Kurds' were our friends etc. etc. Which tribe of Kurds are you speaking about?
The Jalali, Milan, Ḥaydaranlu, or the Shiʿite Turki-speaking tribes Calabianlu, Moḥammad Ḵanlu, Ḥosaynaklu, Ḥaji ʿAlilu, Ḥasan Beglu, and Qaracorlu? What about the Sarsiv, Tilakuʾi, Bani Ardalan, Jaf, Hulilan, Guran, Kalhor, Sanjabi, Sarafbayani, Kerindi, Bajalan, Nanakuli, and Zangana? The ones I mentioned above are only a small fraction of the others I did not. Which ones even give a rats arse about independence or what going in Syria? Which Kurdish tribe are you all lamenting over and paying so much attention too here when the headlines and news outlets keep bringing up "the Kurds"?
ikalugin
10-16-19, 04:50 PM
Could this be a partial consequence of what has happened regarding the Kurds?
This is probably more related to the increased weight of Iran and Iran/KSA proxy war (including the whole line of tanker related incidents) and the desire of KSA to negotiate a settlement of sorts.
That US obviously cannot help with due to the recent sanctions against Iran etc.
OK gents, I know in the news "the Kurds"seem to be the latest most talked about subject. And I think have lead you all to believe there is some united front for an independent state founded on freedom and democracy who got screwed, blah blah. But when you say' the Kurds' were this or 'the Kurds' were that, 'the Kurds' were our friends etc. etc. Which tribe of Kurds are you speaking about?
The Jalali, Milan, Ḥaydaranlu, or the Shiʿite Turki-speaking tribes Calabianlu, Moḥammad Ḵanlu, Ḥosaynaklu, Ḥaji ʿAlilu, Ḥasan Beglu, and Qaracorlu? What about the Sarsiv, Tilakuʾi, Bani Ardalan, Jaf, Hulilan, Guran, Kalhor, Sanjabi, Sarafbayani, Kerindi, Bajalan, Nanakuli, and Zangana? The ones I mentioned above are only a small fraction of the others I did not. Which ones even give a rats arse about independence or what going in Syria? Which Kurdish tribe are you all lamenting over and paying so much attention too here when the headlines and news outlets keep bringing up "the Kurds"?
What an ignorant analogy,lol
What an ignorant analogy,lol
What an ignorant observation, lol.
Mr Quatro
10-16-19, 06:51 PM
OK gents, I know in the news "the Kurds"seem to be the latest most talked about subject. And I think have lead you all to believe there is some united front for an independent state founded on freedom and democracy who got screwed, blah blah. But when you say' the Kurds' were this or 'the Kurds' were that, 'the Kurds' were our friends etc. etc. Which tribe of Kurds are you speaking about?
The Jalali, Milan, Ḥaydaranlu, or the Shiʿite Turki-speaking tribes Calabianlu, Moḥammad Ḵanlu, Ḥosaynaklu, Ḥaji ʿAlilu, Ḥasan Beglu, and Qaracorlu? What about the Sarsiv, Tilakuʾi, Bani Ardalan, Jaf, Hulilan, Guran, Kalhor, Sanjabi, Sarafbayani, Kerindi, Bajalan, Nanakuli, and Zangana? The ones I mentioned above are only a small fraction of the others I did not. Which ones even give a rats arse about independence or what going in Syria? Which Kurdish tribe are you all lamenting over and paying so much attention too here when the headlines and news outlets keep bringing up "the Kurds"?
You went to a lot of trouble to make your point Rockstar ... I don't have an answer cause I am a redneck that wonders why we would care about Muslims's anyway. :hmmm:
Mr Quatro
10-16-19, 07:59 PM
https://thehill.com/policy/international/europe/466137-erdogan-agrees-to-meet-with-pence-pompeo-on-their-trip-to-urge
Erdoğan confirms he will meet with Pence after initial confusion
A spokesman for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on Wednesday confirmed that the president would meet with Vice President Pence during their trip to Ankara amid bipartisan backlash in the U.S. over President Trump's decision to withdraw troops from Syria.
The announcement came after initial confusion following an interview Erdoğan gave to Sky News in which he appeared to say he would talk only to Trump.
I bet Erdogan has something on Trump that he can't talk about on the phone :yep:
I bet Erdogan has something on Trump that he can't talk about on the phone :yep:
I wonder how many CIA whistleblower spies the Democrats are sending along. :hmmm:
I wonder how many CIA whistleblower spies the Democrats are sending along. :hmmm:As many as you have tinfoil hats.
Rockstar
10-17-19, 10:37 AM
What an ignorant analogy,lol
Ummm its not an analogy. It was a question, with probably 50 or more Kurdish tribes scattered throughout Persia which ones are you speaking of and lamenting over? Or in your case, because you seem such a war hawk, plan on taking up arms with when you go to Syria? The ones that fought against Assad or the ones who joined him against Turkey? The, Sunni or the Shia Kurdish sects .
This is a war between a multitude of alliances and political factions such as the Muslim brotherhood, Sunni and Shia tribes and divisions within divisions. Its been going on since the days of Ishmael.
Rockstar
10-17-19, 10:41 AM
You went to a lot of trouble to make your point Rockstar ... I don't have an answer cause I am a redneck that wonders why we would care about Muslims's anyway. :hmmm:
Care about Muslims? We should try to look beyond that and care about our fellow man PERIOD. I am by no means a pacifist but I find absolutely no reason to send our young men and women over there to get involved in their centuries old wars and power struggles between dictators and religious zealots.
Skybird
10-17-19, 10:48 AM
Rockstare is right - there ARE many different branches and tribes of Kurds. Some maintain alliances and relations of years and decades of duration, others opportiunisically turn their heads constantly, depending on from where the wind blows every new morning. Personally, for what ever its worth all my experiences with Kurds in South-Western Turkey were positive, we depended on them on some occasions, and never were let down or betrayed. So from a subjecitve point of view I cannot tell anythign bad about them. This does not mean that there might not also be others. Every herd has its black sheep. And the Kurds certainly have good reasons to feel bitterness about their historical fate. Its like with other people as well: watch carefully out whom you deal with, caution pays off. Not all Kurdish groups are the same, some are friendly, some are less so.
Jimbuna
10-17-19, 01:16 PM
Turkey has agreed to a ceasefire in northern Syria to let Kurdish-led forces withdraw, US Vice-President Mike Pence has announced.
All military operations will be paused for five days, and the US will help facilitate an "orderly withdrawal" of Kurdish-led troops from what Turkey has termed a "safe zone" on the border.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-50091305
I doubt this will mean the return of the 50 or so US service personnel now that the Russians are involved.
1. Cause a problem
2. Fix the problem you caused
3. Bend over
4. Receive kisses from your supporters
Skybird
10-17-19, 02:23 PM
1. Cause a problem
2. Fix the problem you caused
3. Bend over
4. Receive kisses from your supporters
What "fix"?
Rockstar
10-17-19, 02:51 PM
True, there are Kurds in the U.S. happy to be here being out of a warzone. There are Kurds in Turkey who really dont even consider themselves, nor are looked upon by the Turks as Kurds anymore. There are kurds content at trying to scratch out living with what they have where ever they might live in the world. Then there are religious and political zealots who for whatever reason will kill, even each other, for power and as long those exsist we western nations even the U.S. will have power to influence affairs in tbe middle east.
Saddens me too seeing congress do what they did, no sensible reason, plan or goal why we should have our troops remain. Public just goes along with it cheering their party /team with empty meaningless catch phrases. The vote was nothing more than an act of political self preservation.
Skybird
10-17-19, 03:12 PM
Sure, when you go sailing with a friend and then decide you have enough of it and him/her, you have the right to say so and to separate from him/her. Just that you need to return to the beach or harbour and put the other back on land would be the correct and acceptable way to exceute the splitting up - not to throw the other into the water on high sea and then sail away yourself.
The Russian presence has created new faqcts, and the whole going allows Assad to reclaim much of the lost terriories again. Penc emight have been successful, apparently, to convince Erdoghan that here was a chance to agree to an escaqpe option for the Kurds without loosing his face. I cannot see that the Americans had any pressing argument there to which Erdoghan must obey. It was the Russians' weight he had to react to. The Russians on their behalf once again score: profilating themselves as a peace-enforcing factor, and securing for Assad the retaking of some of the lost territories, without too much cost and battle so far. To go into the breach between Turks and Syrians and telling Erdoghan they would nto allow any clashing of the two, was once again a good move of theirs.
As many as you have tinfoil hats.
Shush now, let the adults talk. Go back and play with your little friends.
Saddens me too seeing congress do what they did, no sensible reason, plan or goal why we should have our troops remain.
I think the plan, the real Bi-partisan plan, is to keep us militarily involved over there forever. How else can you explain allowing mission creep so bad that it turned a 30 day temporary deployment into a decade long boondoggle with no end in sight?
Says the 'adult'. :haha:
Who has been sent to forum time out? Me or you hmmm?
I have.
Does that have something to do with your crackpot theory of democrats sending CIA to spy on Pence?
I have.
Does that have something to do with your crackpot theory of democrats sending CIA to spy on Pence?
No it doesn't Dowly, the question was who is a child. Thanks for playing but do try to keep up won't you?
As for my "crackpot theory" it was part joke and part recognition of the secret CIA spy, er,.. I mean "whistle blower", who reported directly to the Democrats about Trumps call with the Ukrainian PM before his own IG.
Of course you strike me as a humorless person and probably wouldn't spot a bit of levity if it were to bite you on the butt.
Mr Quatro
10-17-19, 06:39 PM
Think about it the enemy wouldn't move on those big bad fifty (50) men guarding the Kurds with 1,000 brothers stationed nearby.
Fear means respect and I feel the USA will get it back ... too much smoke to see the good in all of this yet. :yep:
Buddahaid
10-17-19, 08:51 PM
...As for my "crackpot theory" it was part joke and part recognition of the secret CIA spy, er,.. I mean "whistle blower", who reported directly to the Democrats about Trumps call with the Ukrainian PM before his own IG.
Of course you strike me as a humorless person and probably wouldn't spot a bit of levity if it were to bite you on the butt.
As you so bluntly put earlier, it's only common courtesy to let people know what you're intent is. Trump is an idiot, and even if he is right about something, he's too stupid to make it work without stepping on his "twitter" in the process.
As you so bluntly put earlier, it's only common courtesy to let people know what you're intent is. Trump is an idiot, and even if he is right about something, he's too stupid to make it work without stepping on his "twitter" in the process.
You know the Trump is an idiot meme keeps getting pushed by the left but I seriously doubt that an idiot could survive the constant attacks being made against him. He has outwitted them at every turn with little help from his own party's leadership, yet they all continue to underestimate him by calling him stupid.
How stupid will he be when he wins reelection?
Probably just as stupid as when he gets impeached...
<O>
Skybird
10-18-19, 08:36 AM
Oh look, that big deal of the little boy did not held for even one day. Cease-fire broken, Turkish air force is fully engaged again. Massacres of civilians during their withdrawing from the territory that Little Boy has sold to Erdoghan for nothing get reported.
Enjoy the show, Little Boy! Clap clap clap clap hands. Its the fruits of your great, unmatched wisdom (tm) and pedagogic efforts.
Jimbuna
10-18-19, 12:00 PM
James Mattis mocks Donald Trump at gala dinner.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-us-canada-50094679/james-mattis-mocks-donald-trump-at-gala-dinner
Certainly no love lost between these two then.
Yes there are several fraction of the Kurds
I don't think Turkey is seeing it this way- I think they are planning on cleaning this area from all type of Kurds.
Markus
Yes there are several fraction of the Kurds
I don't think Turkey is seeing it this way- I think they are planning on cleaning this area from all type of Kurds.
Markus
But the area is only a small fraction of Kurdish lands and only one or two of the many Kurdish tribes live there.
Skybird
10-19-19, 02:01 AM
The speaker of the Republican majority in senate Mitch McConnell attacks grrreat Lil' Boy's policy as a "strategic nightmare" and a "grave strategic mistake" He called the uS retreat by its name, . He said sticks and carotts should be used to bring Turkey back in line.
I wonder: what stick? Lil' Boy threw it away. The US has no sticks against Turkey in Syria anymore. Sanctions will not intimidate Erdoghan, since he is as much at a loss of reality, as Lil' Boy himself is. The plebs is in overwhelming, hysterically patriotic support of the war and Erdoghan. Or as a commentator in a German opinion piece wrote two days ago: The US can just simulate to be a superpower anymore. And Russian soldiers posed recently with standing in US bases in Syria, with Syrian troops on their heels. Anyone expecting they move out again if the Americans say they want them back...?
Mr McConnell is the latest Republican to criticise the president over Syria. Senator Lindsey Graham - normally a staunch ally of Mr Trump's - has vociferously opposed the administration's troop withdrawal.
"A buffer zone is acceptable to the Kurds but a military occupation that displaces hundreds of thousands is not a safe zone," Mr Graham said on Thursday after speaking to Kurdish forces. "It is ethnic cleansing."https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-50103605
And Lil' Boy blew the whistle to start it.
Jimbuna
10-19-19, 05:28 AM
I know we can all agree that the whole situation is a right mess but whichever side or viewpoint you take there is one question I'm currently thinking and that is.....who will or can ever trust this current US administration again?
I'm now forming the opinion that many top level decisions are changed simply on a whim without any detailed consideration of the potential consequences.
Russia and China must be thrilled that there western opponents appear to be self harming themselves.
Skybird
10-19-19, 05:40 AM
I know we can all agree that the whole situation is a right mess but whichever side or viewpoint you take there is one question I'm currently thinking and that is.....who will or can ever trust this current US administration again?
Eh - nobody. And not just this adminbistraitonm but any follow on administrations as well, no matter which party and name. The fission funghus that wa sset free, already ha spenetreated too deep into the basic substance of the whole structure as if it could get cleaned out again. The post-war order of the West, the strogn hegemone in America leading and protecting the alliance in Europe - is dead.
I'm now forming the opinion that many top level decisions are changed simply on a whim without any detailed consideration of the potential consequences.
What took you so long? It has been like this since almost three years. Since all beginning of the little boy's playing session.
Russia and China must be thrilled that there western opponents appear to be self harming themselves.Putin probably remembersa a quiote form the "A-Team": I love it when a plan works out . China enjoys the benefits for free. Lil' Boy still seems to be convinced that he has trumped China with the recent trade agreement on pork meat. :har: It costs the Chinese nothing to leave him in this illusion while they in fact found a nice way to deal with their homegrown pigs problems this way. Lil' Boy diod not trump them - the Chinese simply adressed a certain homegrown problem of theirs: between 25 and 55% of their pigs hads to be culled due top an epidmay, and pork meat is a basic food in China. Trump could have demanded so much more from them!! :haha:
If he ever understands that, I bet money on that he will start to twitter about that he suddenly discovered what a good-hearted man he was, that nobody in the world has a better heart than he has, and that he felt like wanting to help China out. LOL
Rockstar
10-19-19, 06:24 AM
I know we can all agree that the whole situation is a right mess but whichever side or viewpoint you take there is one question I'm currently thinking and that is.....who will or can ever trust this current US administration again?
I'm now forming the opinion that many top level decisions are changed simply on a whim without any detailed consideration of the potential consequences.
Russia and China must be thrilled that there western opponents appear to be self harming themselves.
#1. He said he was going to this during his campaign for president. If someone didn't it see it coming they are blind or were not paying attention.
#2. What exactly are we missing out on by not being there if nobody really knows why we were there to begin with? Freedom, democracy, prestige, honor, truth, justice and the American way, or being best buds and bosom buddies with Muslim extremists etc, etc, are not reasons. Its fluff.
Skybird
10-19-19, 06:43 AM
For the third or fpourth time,Rockstar - you stabbed them. It is a difference to pull out in a sorted order, prepare it, installing safeties that your "ally" survives your manouver. Instead, Lil' Boy telephones with Erdoghan, and within hours has his troops almost fleeing from their psooitions, and leave the door wide open for the Turks who did not wait long before srarzting to go on a shooting frenzy and sen ding in their radical fanatic lalies who are as bad as the IS.
Go back to the harbour and have guest you do not want to have any longer leavign there. Do not just throw them intot he coean and watch as the streuggle for their lives and drown and do not dare to tell them " I told you so. You could have seen this coming."
Really, Rockstar. Its cheap. And a stinking foul excuse. Mind you, I said severla times I undertand and even support the pulling out of the US. Years ago I even said you and Europe should not even get in, but leave it to the Russians, but you did not want to leave it to the Russians, you wanted to punish Assad instead, you did not want to leave the prey to the Russians, lecturing them as well by refusing them the reward they planned for. And so you went in. I said: "Leave Syria to the Russians. They have stronger interest there, and they are willign to do the dirty work. They will not fall back from your moral demands."
And this manouver now by the little boy is the sh!tt!est way to pull out again one can imagine. 150-300 thousands on the mkove. Hundreds dead. Torture. Atrocities. Ethnic cleansing. This is your work: you opend the door, your told the Turks: come in, you moved the obstacles aside.
And you cannot mend what you have bend there.
u crank
10-19-19, 06:48 AM
#1. He said he was going to this during his campaign for president. If someone didn't it see it coming they are blind or were not paying attention.
#2. What exactly are we missing out on by not being there if nobody really knows why we were there to begin with? Freedom, democracy, prestige, honor, truth, justice and the American way, or being best buds and bosom buddies with Muslim extremists etc, etc, are not reasons. Its fluff.
The Endgame in Syria.
The pattern was established well before Donald Trump took office. It will persist after he departs. There is nothing so consistent as American ambivalence toward our superpower status. Most great powers covet hegemony. We hate it. The costs are too high, the demands too stressful.
https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/10/the-endgame-in-syria/
Trump is getting America out of a country we were never really in. Our presence in Syria was not enough to deter Turkey. One thousand troops do not constitute a tripwire. They are chips in a high-stakes game. Erdogan called the bluff.
Our footprint was light because the last two administrations wanted it that way. That is why criticism of Trump’s policy from left-wing noninterventionists and former Obama officials is ridiculous. Where were they when Assad killed hundreds of thousands of people, when he and Erdogan used migration to Europe as a weapon, when civilians were gassed, when ISIS formed, when Russia moved in? Did they think Syria was peachy keen up until Sunday, October 6? Are we really to take lectures from them on the value of forward presence?
Pete Buttigieg is right to say that what is happening in Syria is a consequence of American withdrawal. But if what’s happening is a betrayal of American values, it’s one Americans voted for.
Skybird
10-20-19, 06:17 AM
Welt am Sonntag writes that NATO found agreement on that if Syria strikes Turkey, Turkey will not get NATO assistance, article 5 will not be activated.
Wonder oh wonder, some logic in politics. At least by words, and by now.
France said it will not station Frnch SAMs in Southern Turkey as originally wa splanned. spain will withdraw its SAMs from there. It can be expected that Turkey thus will speed up the stationing of the Russian S-400 SAM system along the border to Syria.
Germany still acts schizophrenic, making a distinction between wepon deliveries that Turkey can use in the conflict, and wepaons it cannot use in the conflict. How to control that and what the difference between such weapons and material, is after so many years still one of the best kept secrets of the Germans. I have seen German wepaons in Turkey, rifles and vehicles, trucks for the most. But I noticed no characteristic hardware features that would prevent them from being used in the North, West, South or East of Turkey, and being shuttled around. I Tlso never ntoiced any German minitors watching over that the Turks do not do with these equipments like the Germans claim they do not want them to do. - The sad thing is - the Germans do like at least 40 years this way. And all the other weapon deliverers probnaby as well. Good news is that this will end sooner or later: the tehcnolgox transfer to Turkey has allowed thme to mount their own tnak industry, and their first major MBT design is close to enter mass production. They do not need German Leopards anymore. They also build their own rifle production. Anb their own truck prioduction. They plan to do the same with artillery. And Erdoghan no longer hides his nuclear ambitions. Thats where endless European and American appeasement and cowardice towards Turkey has led to. They now want back the Balkan, parts of the Aegean, the gas fields around Cyprus...
Jimbuna
10-20-19, 08:13 AM
Aren't there American nukes stockpiled/stored there already?
IIRC there has been an issue about the Americans wanting to remove them.
Rockstar
10-20-19, 09:08 AM
Why remove the nukes? They have been a treaty ally for over 67 years.
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/turkey-has-legitimate-security-concerns-nato-chief/1613310
Even NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has said, and I quote "Turkey has "legitimate security concerns" ... "no other ally suffered more terrorist attacks," and "no other ally is more exposed to instability, turmoil and violence from the Middle East"
Note the word he used ally
https://www.hudson.org/research/15380-turkey-has-legitimate-grievances-against-the-u-s
Why on one hand are we are saying Turkey has legitimate security concerns and on the other get our panties in a wad when they act. On top of that I'd wager we are most likely supplying arms to the YPG and PKK. Brits are still in Syria are they not? Why are they still there? Exactly what in hell is our foreign policy, what are the goals? Anyone? just dont get all teary eyed and tell me its about freedom and democracy or independence for a very small minority group of militant shia muslim Kurds and Trump bad. Im not so much interested in your personal opinion rather Im interested in what your government has told you what your foreign policey is. Its OK to say I dont know 'cause I really dont either LOL
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DbBn61rbKYI
Skybird
10-20-19, 10:01 AM
Aren't there American nukes stockpiled/stored there already?
IIRC there has been an issue about the Americans wanting to remove them.
Yes, I linked to it some days ago. US papers reported the Pentagon indeed mulls plans for emergency evacuations of the 50 nuclear bombs stored at Incirlik. Erdoghan has indicated he might want toi hiujack them, after the oublicatio9n of the Pentagon acivities he said that even if the wepains would be withdranw Tukrey would now start to after its own nukes.
It was thought about repeatedly, but considered to be a too hot topic as if Clinton or Obama seriously pressed for it. But the Rdoghanisation has advanced sinc erthen, and can no longer be ignored. Tukrey is a danger to the region now. And to NATO.
Its way over ten years ago when I predicted that it would be just a question of time before either Turkey or Saudi arabia would embark on getting nuclear arsenals and by that launching a nuclear arms race in the region. Egypot I also listed as a candidate, and of course Syria. And I still say: it will happen. Erdoghan was always my top pick for getting the show started.
No, Rockstar, they are no ally anymore. They are also no democracy anymore. No secular country anymore. You are cherishing a poisenous vicous snake in your bosom. Stoltenberg is a di0plomat, and not the first diplomat making a fool of himself. Thjats his job. Those 67 years of the past - well, they mean nothiugn now. Your coutnry als i not that of 67 years ago anymore, is it? It was a completely different Turkey, a totally diferenbt Turkey that was allowed and urged to sign in to NATO. It was a Turkey were Islam was in enforced hibernation mode. You are not dealign with Atatpürks' heritage anymore. You are now dealing Ersdioghan, and Erdoghan has deleted Atakürk formn Turkish history, and onely babbles about coinquering oarts iof Europe, the Ottoman claims for territory, and ethnic cleansing of Greeks and Austrians.
With allies like this you need no enemies anymore. Its not that they will betray us in the future. THEY ALREADY DO, since years.
Rockstar
10-20-19, 10:17 AM
Diplomat or not just 6 days ago in front of 65th NATO Parliamentary Assembly in London NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said they were. Maybe Turkey has been given the green light to 'neutralize' YPG and PKK terrorists. At the same time world opinion is being directed against Turkey. Should Turkey step over the proverbial line in the sand public opinion is primed for dropping another salvo of freedom bombs but this time on Turkey.
Erdogan is also strongly supported by the friends of Khashoggi a.k.a. the Muslim Brotherhood what else can you expect of him? He's just parroting the brotherhoods mantra "It is the nature of Islam to dominate, not to be dominated, to impose its law on all nations and to extend its power to the entire planet". Not much different than the Kurdish Y.P.G. or P.K.K. shia militants in Syria I suppose. Like I said before this is a war between Islamic factions and their struggle for power. Which side did you say you are supporting?
Skybird
10-20-19, 10:33 AM
You might not think they are an ally. But 6 days ago in front of 65th NATO Parliamentary Assembly in London NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said they were.
Politbabble. Our chancellor also says the Turks are our most precious friends and allies. Lil' Boy says they are our bets freinds. everybody says that NATO is fione, all is opkay, things are tgreat.
And you believe it!
Stoltenberg btw is the political top represenative of NATO. Expecting him to talk against NATO is like expectign the pope to form an unbbiased view of the church.
Politbabble does not interest me. What I am interested in, is the long list of deeds that we by now know of Erdoghan, in all regards, in all political fields. And that speaks volumes.
Politbabble. Its nothing to be taken as truth and honest meaning. Mostly, its lie and deception. The rest is posing.
ikalugin
10-20-19, 02:14 PM
Aren't there American nukes stockpiled/stored there already?
IIRC there has been an issue about the Americans wanting to remove them.
There are about 50 weapons there yes, with new secure storage completed fairly recently.
They have been there on the standard NATO nuclear sharing agreements (which sort of violate the spirit of the NPT if not the letter) for a long time.
It's not only in Northern Syria they are fighting.
Heard on the news that there have been clashes between Turkish people and Kurdish in Germany. I did not hear where.
Markus
Skybird
10-20-19, 03:18 PM
It's not only in Northern Syria they are fighting.
Heard on the news that there have been clashes between Turkish people and Kurdish in Germany. I did not hear where.
Markus
There were Kurdish demosntrations today that remained peaceful and triggered much less violence than pllcie expected.
However there is a climate of constant Turkish-Kurdish aggression. Turks in Germany are predomianntly pro Erdoghan and conservative in their religious attitude - later generations in migrant families more so than the first generation - and racism is integral part of Turkish nationalism. Also, insiders often said that the Turkish intelliance services maybe are more active in Germany than in any other country outside Turkey, chasing opponents of the regime and pursuing offensive opionions by standards of Erdoghan. On earlier demonstration, there were clashes between Turks and Kurds, and the climate between them is generally poisoned. For reaosns that are beyond me Turkey is allowed to run its own mosques and imams in Germany, and in many of their msoques the Turksih imams preach turkish ultranationalsim, haste and racism and openly clal for violence against Germany, the Germans, the infidels, enemies of Erdoghan, and Kurds. These Imams get sent form the Turkish relgion m inistry, usually do not speak German, and suually do not get mionitored by Germany. The Turkish state can do what they want, and Germany does not care - that is the unbelievable truth. We are kind, you know. We are understanding. We are tolerant. We take the Turks not serious, but understand that it is just part of their cultural character. Its harmless.
Again, intel and police knows it. Politicians ignore it and act as if it is not so. Scumbags. I do not dispise poltician-breed this much for no reason, this is just one of the many reasons.
Albanian, Libanese and Turkish clans pose the biggest problems over here, also Afghan and Iraqi family clans (with sometimes hundreds of members). The police and the state does not have them under control anymore. the police knows it and warns of it, the politicians ignore it and try to hide it. In the metropoles where such clans are present, police does not enter certain areas anymore where the clans have the say. Even just traffic controls or checks for papers are enough to have clans now atacking policemen and injuring them and calling in clan help by the dozens and dozens. Every week you can find news ons uch incidents in the emdia if you look in regional press, but onyl the really serious big ones make it into the national news anymore. It has become routine of the day, at least rotuine per week. The "journaille" in germany is under very strong left and state influence, and so reports mostly politically correct.
But for today I do not know of any Turkish-Kurdish clashes in Germany.
Bring the boys back home, so says Trump...
..and like virtually all things Trump says, it is a lie:
US troops leaving Syria will go to Iraq, says Pentagon chief --
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-50117765
So much for "Promises Kept"...
...particularly when the promises are made by a well-documented liar...
Interestingly, Trump, during his residency, has been sending more troops to the Middle East, belying his puffery about wanting to defend our borders instead of other countries' borders:
“Some people want the United States to protect the 7,000 mile away Border of Syria, presided over by Bashar al-Assad, our enemy,” he tweeted. “I would much rather focus on our Southern Border which abuts and is part of the United States of America.”
Trump’s Middle East Policy Is a Fraud --
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/10/trump-fool-us-middle-east/600010/
Note that the above article was published some 5 days before the Pentagon released the news US forces in Syria were not 'going home', but, rather, being reposted to Iraq; what was already fraudulent has become even more so, with a layer of hypocrisy added...
<O>
Rockstar
10-21-19, 04:04 AM
oh look the one trick pony returns, read the topic header. Its the Turkish-Kurdish dilema. Since world war II we have always had a crap ton of troops stationed around the world I have absolutley no problem that. The question is why Syria? Why are the U.S., Brits and France involved? Why are we supporing one Islamic militant faction over another. With your self proclaimed treasure trove of facts, study and law do you have a clue why? Which islamic militant faction do you support? Im begining too understand the goal and I also have come to the conclusion there is no such thing as isolated incidents over there. I would love to hear your opinion why we are over there and why we should stay. If you say its for freedom and democracey or mention Trump you go on my list of people to ignore.
Yes I know we do not have ground troops there now. But I'll bet ya dollars to donuts we are paying for most of this endevour and still supplying arms and technical support to the Kurds. The fight is not over neither is our involvement.
oh and to Skybird buddy oh friend of mine :) . I dont for a moment care what the NATO GenSec says. I know why he did, appeasement as you say politbabble. Same reason why Trump did what he did appease his voters and poltibabble. But as I said I believe we still very much involved. Hell three of worlds largest arms dealers U.S. Europe and Russia are neck deep in it.
Europe is now crawling with angry Turks. If say Germany openly supported operations against Turkey you all would probably have a major uprising on your hands. Poor Germany, in an attempt to atone for the sins of their fathers. Have invited with open arms a culture just like that of their fathers and even have been known to admire their ideology.
Rockstar
10-21-19, 05:01 PM
A couple of years old but gives you an idea what our taxpayers are spending their money on. It is common knowledge that most of the weapons the US has supplied to these fighters has ended up in the hands of Al-Qaeda and ISIS. Told ya you had to be careful about supplying weapons as they might be pointed back at you.
https://balkaninsight.com/2017/09/12/the-pentagon-s-2-2-billion-soviet-arms-pipeline-flooding-syria-09-12-2017/
Interesting thing I found out too since before 2017 Turkey and Iran both stand against Saudi in respect of the Qatar crisis. This of course persuaded the Saudis to become a thorn in Turkey's side and they now support Kurdish independence. Which I think may have also been a reason why the execution of Jamal Kashoggi in 2018 became such a media sensation. Used by Turkey and the Muslim Brotherhood in an attempt to alienate the Saudis from the western political, economic and military support. It almost worked.
And I will say too that I agree wholeheartedly everything that Skybird has said about Turkey and Erdogan. But how and why we are in Syria is a freaking hard story to grasp right now. But I'm putting together some pieces.
How we got there was for the purpose of regime change. When then President Obama announced back in 2011 that Assad had to go, unfortunately he did little if anything at all to make this happen. Syrians I think expected that when the leader of the world's superpower made such a statement, it would have value. Obama talked big but in 2015 Putin called his bluff and Assad remains in power to this day. Joe Biden, admitted: "Big nations don't bluff." that was embarrassing.
Next plan for regime change was around 2015, recruit and arm a U.S. backed Free Syrian Army in Syria this became formal in the spring of 2016. A nice present to our current president. Unfortunately this predominately sunni army could not stand up and survive against Syrian and Russian forces.
Here we are in 2019. After two failed attempts at regime change it seems its time to support Kurdish nationalism in an attempt to undermine Turkish ambitions and Syrian, Iraqi, Iranian, Hezbollah grasp on the region a.k.a. the “Shia crescent” . The results of this new strategy is obvious as we see escalating conflicts between the Kurdish militia and Syrian and Turkish armies. U.S. forces may have moved out of Syria but I bet ya dollars to donuts they are now in or very near the Kurdish area of Iraq. I expect to see in the media a 'reason' to go back into Syria. This could really turn into a big sheet storm in the middle east if that happens though.
So, the way I see it if we cant conduct a simple regime change operation. We will instead create a new nation in order for us to have someone to protect and to use to advance our national interests! Saudi Kingdom not happy with Muslim Brotherhood influence in their own state and a predominately a Sunni nation I'm sure will agree.
Onkel Neal
10-23-19, 10:41 AM
The sooner we pull out if the ME, the better.
Jimbuna
10-23-19, 10:54 AM
The Shadow Home Secretary is acting herself again :haha:
https://i.postimg.cc/mDCZTGP1/73495281-1393589470819472-459020820124008448-n.jpg (https://postimages.org/)
I'll get my coat :oops:
Few days ago I read Mike Pompeo sayin
Trump would not hesitate to attack Turkey if needed.
This made me wonder what would happen-geopolitical and strategy in the long run, if USA did or do attack Turkey.
Markus
Jimbuna
10-23-19, 11:23 AM
Read the entire article Markus, it may help you come to your own conclusion.
Russian President Vladimir Putin meets his Turkish opposite number to underscore Moscow's role as the would-be guarantor of stability in the region. Russia and Turkey will soon be mounting joint patrols to help delineate the boundary of the new, so-called security zone. Meanwhile, withdrawing US special forces vehicles are pelted with vegetables and rubbish as they leave their erstwhile Kurdish allies to their fate.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-50152390
Mr Quatro
10-23-19, 11:54 AM
Few days ago I read Mike Pompeo sayin
Trump would not hesitate to attack Turkey if needed.
This made me wonder what would happen-geopolitical and strategy in the long run, if USA did or do attack Turkey.
Markus
Now Russia and Turkey are patrolling the former border the USA was defending. If you attack Turkey ... you attack Russia. :yep:
What a great nation Syria has become fighting rebels using Iran, Russia, Turkey and their own poor pitiful army and they still can't control their own destiny. :o
Catfish
10-23-19, 12:35 PM
I get the impresson that as soon as the Kurds have withdrawn from the border, they will be crushed by Assad, with a smiling Putin and Erdoghan being as proud of their betrayal as Trump.
Skybird
10-23-19, 01:29 PM
Could also be that they dissolve into Assad's army.
Meanwhile, the little boy in the big white house has stopped sanctions against Turkey, saying that his big bad buddy Erdoghan has whispered something to him. He also claims that all is good, everybody was saved from everything, and that all this good is only due to his ingenious leadership. And things in Normandy go well, too, thanks for asking. :har:
Yeah Donny, you're the greatest once again, we once again dig it. The rest of the universe was only build to worship your unbelievable greatness and wisdom. :up:
em2nought
10-23-19, 02:07 PM
The sooner we pull out of the ME, the better.
It's too late, we've already impregnated 'er. :D
Could also be that they dissolve into Assad's army.
Meanwhile, the little boy in the big white house has stopped sanctions against Turkey, saying that his big bad buddy Erdoghan has whispered something to him. He also claims that all is good, everybody was saved from everything, and that all this good is only due to his ingenious leadership. And things in Normandy go well, too, thanks for asking. :har:
Yeah Donny, you're the greatest once again, we once again dig it. The rest of the universe was only build to worship your unbelievable greatness and wisdom. :up:
(Pure speculation)
What do you think will happen when or if Trump sees he's been dragged around by Erdogan or perhaps Putin ?
Markus
Skybird
10-23-19, 03:13 PM
(Pure speculation)
What do you think will happen when or if Trump sees he's been dragged around by Erdogan or perhaps Putin ?
He will never see it that way, he stands too dark in his own ego's giant shadow. So dont worry, your question is hypothetical only and will never become relevant.
Meanwhile, the little boy in the big white house has stopped sanctions against Turkey, saying that his big bad buddy Erdoghan has whispered something to him. He also claims that all is good, everybody was saved from everything, and that all this good is only due to his ingenious leadership. And things in Normandy go well, too, thanks for asking. :har:
Is your real name Schiff?
Skybird
10-23-19, 03:15 PM
The Shadow Home Secretary is acting herself again :haha:
https://i.postimg.cc/mDCZTGP1/73495281-1393589470819472-459020820124008448-n.jpg (https://postimages.org/)
I'll get my coat :oops:
Really, I have no clue - joke or real?
Skybird
10-23-19, 03:18 PM
Is your real name Schiff?
No. Believe it or not, but my real second name deals with hellfire. :) No joke. But since I already got murder threats in real life once, I must not make it known in public here. ;)
No. Believe it or not, but my real second name deals with hellfire. :) No joke. But since I already got murder threats in real life once, I must not make it known in public here. ;)
Well I just asked because we have a congressman with your penchant for hateful fantasy. Figured you might be related.
Skybird
10-23-19, 03:35 PM
Well I just asked because we have a congressman with your penchant for hateful fantasy. Figured you might be related.
I know. I linked to some news about him some time ago. That you do not like him probably says not more than that he maybe just does something right. I assume Little Boy also does not like him, and would also not like me. These days, thats a compliment. I would hate to be liked by him. Or by you.
I know. I linked to some news about him some time ago. That you do not like him probably says not more than that he maybe just does something right. I assume Little Boy also does not like him, and would also not like me. These days, thats a compliment. I would hate to be liked by him. Or by you.
Well we might as well make it 100% no?
Onkel Neal
10-23-19, 06:02 PM
Here as well, cut out the personal stuff, stay on topic.
Rockstar
10-23-19, 09:12 PM
The sooner we pull out if the ME, the better.
Not likely. I think its in our best interests to remain allied with and continue to support the KSA militarily. As well as Sunni Kurds lead by Massoud Barzani from Northern Iraq WHICH incidentally were the ones we were supporting in Syria fighting against Assad. Those poor defenseless and betrayed YPG and PKK shia Kurds still in Syria well, they have pretty much always been aligned with the Syrian Ba'athist regime of Assad. Turkey and the Muslim Brotherhood doesn't like Assad the YPG, or the PKK and would love to oust Assad. Unlike Obama or Trump they appear to want to do something about it. However Russia is doing a good job protecting their Syrian interests. We have done our job basically leveling the countryside and creating instability on a grand scale in Syria. Making it so that those which support Syria cant afford to rebuild it.
Catfish
10-24-19, 01:22 AM
(Pure speculation)What do you think will happen when or if Trump sees he's been dragged around by Erdogan or perhaps Putin ? Markus
As usual he will tie a red bow around it all and sell it as a personal 'victory'.
Trump is his own foreign policy crisis.
Onkel Neal
10-24-19, 05:49 PM
Joe Kent is a retired US Army Special Forces chief warrant officer three, who spent more than 20 years in Special Operations and completed 11 combat deployments. He is also a Gold Star husband; his wife Senior Chief Petty Officer Shannon Kent was killed in 2019 conducting Special Operations against ISIS in Syria.
After Donald Trump announced the withdrawal of US troops from northeastern Syria, pundits, politicians, foreign policy experts and fearless keyboard warriors expressed vociferous disapproval and attempted to portray this issue as a simple binary choice.
The President's detractors on both sides of the aisle are frantically arguing that we have "abandoned" the Kurds and that without a permanent US presence in Syria ISIS will return.
These emotional arguments ignore reality on several key issues. First and foremost: the nature of our relationship with the Syrian Kurds. The US partnered with the Syrian Kurds to defeat ISIS's territorial caliphate; the US air power controlled by skilled Special Operations Forces (SOF) saved the Kurds from being slaughtered by ISIS.
The Kurds valiantly fought against ISIS not because we showed up and convinced them to, but because they had their backs to the wall and we saved them. Our interests intersected.
We have absolutely nothing to gain and don't need anything from the wastelands of northeast Syria. This is not a strategically important location to the most powerful nation in the world.
https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/24/opinions/syria-kurds-trump-withdrawal-kent/index.html
Skybird
10-24-19, 06:51 PM
https://www.militarytimes.com/flashpoints/2019/10/23/what-trump-gets-wrong-about-war-against-the-islamic-state/
Well, we are supposed to be keeping 200 special forces in the eastern part of Syria now, mainly to keep ISIS under control plus protect the oil fields there. Now word is out that we will heavily reinforce them with some armor too.
Joe Kent is a retired US Army Special Forces chief warrant officer three, who spent more than 20 years in Special Operations and completed 11 combat deployments. He is also a Gold Star husband; his wife Senior Chief Petty Officer Shannon Kent was killed in 2019 conducting Special Operations against ISIS in Syria.
https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/24/opinions/syria-kurds-trump-withdrawal-kent/index.html
Sounds pretty similar to what Tulsi Gabbard has been saying. Does that mean he is a Russian asset as well?
Skybird
10-25-19, 06:26 AM
It seems somebody tries to talk some changing of minds into the WH leadership. German media report, refering to American news sources, that the Pentagon mulls 30 M-1 tanks and supporting combat troops being send back into Syria' east. Not the first time the little boy is uturning and zig-zaging like a drunk. But Lil' Boy's choice of words still refers to the oil fields there as "our oil".
In the end it all may have been a conspiracy between Erdoghan and the WH to displace the Kurds from an economic basis of theirs.
Edit. Eddie beat me to it.
Mr Quatro
10-25-19, 10:14 AM
Sky! It just means that President Trump is listening to his advisors ... Give him some credit as the head of the greatest free country in the world, except for England of course and I'm not too sure about them. :D
Skybird
10-25-19, 10:27 AM
Giving credit for intentionally, mindlessly smashing the porcellaine, and afterwards saying Sorry! and investing into a small tube of glue - and claiming the few pieces left intact as "our porcellaine"?
That porcellaine was saved "from Syria". "From Iran". "From the IS". So they say. And the Kurds are put on the run, for them it cannot have been saved then, obviously. So I ask for whom has it been "saved" then? Turkey...? Russia...???
Mr Quatro
10-25-19, 10:45 AM
Not too sure about the history of the Kurds, Turkey and Syria about how long they have been friends are enemies, but when the USA was in a war between North Vietnam and South Vietnam there had only been 100 years of peace in that area in it's entire history. :o
Let them duke it out without us :yep:
Yesterday I suddenly remembered a documentary on Danish tv.
This documentary was send some years after first Iraq war and it was about the Kurds in Northern Iraq.
Those Kurds helped USA and it's allied and after Bush had declared war is over-those Kurds was left behind.
My memory could have fooled me.
If not, then why does USA do this to some of their allied ?
I know after the second Iraq war, their situation improved.
Markus
Skybird
10-25-19, 11:21 AM
Not too sure about the history of the Kurds, Turkey and Syria about how long they have been friends are enemies, but when the USA was in a war between North Vietnam and South Vietnam there had only been 100 years of peace in that area in it's entire history. :o
Let them duke it out without us :yep:
You know what? We agree on nthat, I completely agree. Alreadsy years ago I said: Russia wants sYria, leave Syria to the Russians, let them sort issues out. But the West could not just leave Assad to himself, it shall not be that the slaughterer claims the prioze, no, a moral lesson was about to be lectured, and then the IS, and so... I always was agauinst this Syrian engament, by US, by Europe. Go back in the forum, read it, I said we shall stay out and leave them to themselves, and that any assistance to Assad'S opponents only would make the war last longer. My problem with this story today only was about the timing of the pulling out. Not what has been done, but how it was done. I described it in a metaphor in my reply to Rockstar: when you have guests on your boat, do not just throw them into the ocean and watch them drowning when you have enough of them. Go back to the beach and unload them there, and then have them not as guests anymore. And dont take in new guests, of course.
The Germans - of all things the Germans! :haha: - now talk about an international UN-sanctioned protection force in that area. The area where there are Turkish and Russian patrols already claiming ground. I can only shake my head about such naivety. Not to mention that the German army should have other priorities, considering the pitiful state it is in. Overstretched in too many out of area missions aleady now, low in personnel , and so many itnernal issues and deficits. Rumour has it that the German Pentagon already has plans for 2400 troops. While the whole mission was claulated to need around 40 thousand. Bah!!! The Germans... Well, it has more to do with internal German politics and the race for the next chancellory, and after a clueless blonde girlie we now have an even more clueless brunette wannabe-girlie as defence ministress. Well. Weiberwirtschaft.
Skybird
10-25-19, 01:16 PM
Gunnar Heinsohn about why Turkey and Syria are fighting.
https://translate.google.de/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.achgut.com%2Fartikel%2Fankara_ und_berlin_in_der_fluechtlingsfalle
Regardless of the up to 500,000 civil war deaths, between 2010 and 2020 Syria’s total population is growing from 21 to 25 to 26 million. Of these, 17 to 19 million live within national borders (https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=1&rurl=translate.google.de&sl=auto&sp=nmt4&tl=en&u=http://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/syria-population/%3B%25C2%25A0https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/sy.html&xid=17259,15700022,15700186,15700191,15700256,1570 0259,15700262,15700265,15700271&usg=ALkJrhgRsfCr6iDFIU_b0KB03QE5Tv0NtA) . That’s still six times more than in 1945. By 2040, it should be with 30 million internally even ten times as many (https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=1&rurl=translate.google.de&sl=auto&sp=nmt4&tl=en&u=https://population.un.org/wpp/DataQuery/&xid=17259,15700022,15700186,15700191,15700256,1570 0259,15700262,15700265,15700271&usg=ALkJrhg7DC28-vM61NRPcrpi-BKpJSdOjA) . Syria’s government can not want the back soon 7 million exiles. Her youthful pressure would instantly transform the slaughtering slaughter back into full-scale warfare. Since Sunni Muslims were predominant, the Alawite, Christian and Kurdish minorities would also have to fear bloody revenge. Bashir Assad has expressed this concern unequivocally: „Although we have lost the best of our youth, we have become more homogeneous and healthier as a society.“ (" We lost the best of our youth.“) a healthier and more homogeneous society ; ")
Most important points - completely ignored in the usual debates about Syria.
Gunnar Heinsohn taught war-related demography at the NATO Defense College (NDC) in Rome from 2011 to 2019. In Stavanger in 2018 he gave the Perspectives on the 15th anniversary of the Joint Warfare Center (JWC) of NATO. Further info on the author: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gunnar_Heinsohn
The "war index" mentioned in the essay, Heinsohn described in this essay from 2017 like this:
A nation’s war index indicates its capacity for violent struggle. For example, Afghanistan’s index jumping from 4.6 to 6.5 meant that every 1,000 males aged 55 to 59 were being replaced by 4,600 to 6,500 young men aged 15 to 19. These young men were ready and eager to compete for success in society and victory on the battlefield. The Soviets, with their falling birth rates, could not match Afghanistan’s endless supply of military replacements and its unwavering willingness to fight.
Neither war, nor civil war, in Afghanistan weakened its ability to endure losses on the front lines. Their demographic advantage is enormous, and in times of conflict has grown. Even after suffering appalling casualties against the Soviets, Afghanistan’s war index increased, enlarging its capacity to absorb even higher losses. A decade after the Russians retreated, Afghanistan’s pool of fighting-age males (15 to 29 years) grew from 1.65 to 2.73 million. The unbreakable fighting spirit of young men had defeated the hardware of modern war.https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/weekly-standard/afghanistan-russia-and-the-war-index
The war index for the US two years ago was just 0.96. That for Germany even weaker at 0.65. It means that 1000 males age 55-59 are followed by just 960 (650) young males age 15-19. In 2017, Syria'S war index was 4.02 (probably has changed dramaticlaly), and Turkey's 2.00
Rockstar
10-25-19, 02:55 PM
Rockstar: when you have guests on your boat, do not just throw them into the ocean and watch them drowning when you have enough of them. Go back to the beach and unload them there, and then have them not as guests anymore. And dont take in new guests, of course.
Skybird I do appreciate your point of view, even this. But nobody in the U.S. invited anyone for cruise on our boat. I think we invited ourselves to oust Assad under the pretext of defeating ISIS. We may not have acheived that goal of regime change but we certainly left Syria and Assad in an extremely unstable state.
Supposedly we coordinated with the YPG faction in order to defeat ISIS. Seems to me we both used each other in order to get what we both wanted in regards to ISIS only. Oh Im sure we may have even tried to persuade the YPG to come to our side and that of the Kurds of Northern Iraq. But that was probably asking to much of them. Especially since those socalled guests have historically aligned themselves with Assads Syrian Ba'athist regime.
Can you imagine what the comments would be like here if we stayed and fought side by side with the YPG (who actuallt support Assad) against Turkey and Russia?
Catfish
10-25-19, 03:33 PM
[…] to oust Assad under the pretext of defeating ISIS. We may not have acheived that goal of regime change but we certainly left Syria and Assad in an extremely unstable state.
Can you imagine what the comments would be like here if we stayed and fought side by side with the YPG (who actuallt support Assad) against Turkey and Russia?
I do not think that any group supporting dictator Assad would ever have fought against the Russians. Maybe it would have been better to help overturn Assad, after all the initial uprising had that in mind, and it would have granted the US and the west a positive image and a deciding stance not only in the Middle East.
Which was ecactly what Obama had had in mind before, b.t.w. .
And i was at least worth a try, what happens now is ridiculous.
Skybird
10-25-19, 03:38 PM
The Russians would have thoguht twice and three times before going to war with yoiu. And Turkey - they are in very urgent need to get a serious bump as wake-up call from their Western "partners". Erdoghan bullied Trump out of the game, that simple it is. The american troops shoudl ahve stayed were they were- and yes, if the Turks would have struick them, they shoud have fired back at themn, and not just weanring shots, beleoive me. Force is the most common means of communicaiton in that bvregion, and that is especially true when you "talk" to baddies like Erdoghan. You know I see them not as allies. While you and me talk, they mull buying even more weaponry from Russia. Both you ASmericnas and the Europeans have dangeorus iullusions about the state of things regarding Turkey. I am saying this a decade. Turkey is not our friend anymore. This is not the Turkey that once signe dintio NATO, LONG time ago. Its a completely different, a totally different country. There are two countreies amognst the places wher eU have been that I learned to know better than the others I cme though, the one is Iranl the other is Turkey. Anmd that was in the 90s and Erdoghan still was rising and had not yet fully arrioved - and already then it was clear to me where turkey would head. The Eurpeans act as if Erdoghan'S Turkey and how it does and behaves, were a surprise. Not, it has not been a surprise at all. Not since 20 years. In principle: nothing in what Erdoghan has done in these 20 years, has surprised me. And the country went pretty much exactly that way that I had more or less vaguely imagined back then, when I was there. My strong hostility to Turkey comes not from nowhere.
You Westerners, both Americans and Europeans - you must stop to feed your illusions about Turkey. You are in absolutely urgent need to do so. Turkey is lost for you. Its gone. It was gone since Erdoghan was allowed back into politics because the Europeans told the Turkey of back then it should disrespect its own laws after Erdoghan left prison and should allow him to become politically active again. Back then it was beleived that Turkey would be Kemliat and secular enoigh to not be brought down by Erdoghans relgious conservatism. And today? Kemlaism gone, secular base order gone, racist nationalism blossoming, aggressive expansiknistic dreams and open talking about a retaking of previously Ottoman conquests that got lost in the past. America: several times being embarrassed by stubborn Turkish provokations. Europe: endlessly appeasing it and papmering it financially. What erdoghan doe sion the past years and the present, is not just provokation anymore - it is dangerous and a challenge to the West.
All you people thinking you can appease Turkey and keep it in line with the West - you all are wrong. The EU lost it. NATO lost it. And they are orienting towards Russia, very openly.
In principle, the whole Western ME policy paradigms are in ruins. One only still tries to ignore it, but its true.
Forget Turkey. Its gone. Gone, gone,gone. Learn it. Live with it. Adapt to the new fact which by now already is at least one decade old!
Rockstar
10-25-19, 08:13 PM
I do not think that any group supporting dictator Assad would ever have fought against the Russians. Maybe it would have been better to help overturn Assad, after all the initial uprising had that in mind, and it would have granted the US and the west a positive image and a deciding stance not only in the Middle East.
Which was ecactly what Obama had had in mind before, b.t.w. .
And i was at least worth a try, what happens now is ridiculous.
Those poor betrayed Kurds in Syria everyone laments over are YPK and PPK minority shia factions. From information Im reading appear to support the Syrian Ba'athists. They will not overturn their master Assad. They are more afraid of the Muslim Brotherhood and the Turkish military who wants to see all three disappear.
IMO Obama's idea of regime change was to use the western supported 'free syrian army. It basically consisted of a loose mish mash of armed islamic militant political factions. It was bound too fail. and it did.
From the time Obama said "Assad has got to go" he had many years to act with a focused western and well equiped military action but it was only threats and Putin saw it for what was and called his bluff. Afterwhich the free syrian army got their arses kicked by Syrian government and Russian forces. THAT IMO was betrayal as many a Free Syrian fighters were left holding the bag.
Though regime change didnt workout we destablized the state instead, whats the difference? We, the U.S., British and French forces left a train wreck for Syria and Russia. Of which neither has the economy to rebuild and takes little effort on our part to keep it that way.
please note I really dont want make this about Trump Obama. Just trying to make sense of it all.
ikalugin
10-26-19, 06:45 AM
Syrians would have to rebuild themselves.
Maybe we would find some arab or Chinese money to do it.
Skybird
10-26-19, 08:06 AM
Why not Germany? Is German money suddenly not good enough any more? :D
ikalugin
10-26-19, 08:35 AM
If Germans want it - why not.
If Germans want it - why not.
"Just get the money up front" - xoxo NATO.
Skybird
10-26-19, 09:48 AM
If Germans want it - why not.
And are you really sure you do not mind? :D Germany dies for paying out others!
ikalugin
10-26-19, 10:36 AM
And are you really sure you do not mind? :D Germany dies for paying out others!
I mean it is no like this would compromise our position in Syria, it would just place economic pressure on Germany.
Rockstar
10-26-19, 08:35 PM
The United States of America, Britain, France and Russia. Four out of the five of worlds largest arms dealers directly involved in Syria. Business is booming! C'mon Germany join us there is money to be made. Arms dealers shall inherit the earth because everyone is too busy killing themselves.
(China #5)
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