Hurricane Dorian

[Rockstar]

So many possibilities. First thought was that it may cross the peninsula into the GOM. Now a trough is moving in which might produce an opening for Dorian to drive straight up into Disneyland eventually then curve back out towards the Atlantic and up along the coast to Hatteras.

hat tip: https://www.spaghettimodels.com/


GFS model: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=mslpaNorm
EURO model: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=mslpaNorm

[em2nought]

Yeah, not good for me.

[Mr Quatro]

Slow moving hurricane too ... what they call the Space Coast has never had a hurricane in September :hmmm:

[Rockstar]

There's been a few that hit Key West in August/September. Historically hurricanes in this time frame have headed straight for the Space Coast but turned Northward and made landfall elsewhere. Some models are beginning to indicate Dorian may do that too. Prepare for the worst, hope the best.

[mapuc]

Take care, for those of you who may be affected by this hurricane.

You know better be safe, than sorry.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

Best wishes and hopes for safety to everyone in the area.

[Kptlt. Neuerburg]

By the looks of things the hurricanes track is going to take it up the East Coast rather then it making landfall here in Florida. But that could also mean it might become a Cat 5 while it slowly moves up the coast during it's interaction with the Gulf Steam. Even so with it being a Cat 4 and it possibly not making landfall it's still going to be nasty. I remember the last hurricane and even though it stayed on Florida's west coast it still caused a lot power outages and downed trees both of which took what seemed like ages to take care of.

[Rockstar]

Dorian is still too far to be certain of track. Sooo many variables in play here, Youtube video explains them. Florida may still get wacked by Dorian.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IhOmkDxmcOY


https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/FLOATER/data/AL052019/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-AL052019-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif

[Jimbuna]

Hurricane Dorian has become a catastrophic category five storm, and is expected to hit the Bahamas with devastating winds and very heavy rain.

The "extremely dangerous" storm is expected to slam the north-west of the island chain on Sunday, the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) said, before heading to the US east coast.

Grand Bahama residents have been evacuating from its predicted path.

The storm surge could be as high as 15ft (4.6m), officials warned.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-49541485

Stay safe people :salute:

[Onkel Neal]

Reported 185 mph winds now.

[Rockstar]

... and moving at an agonizing slow 5-MPH/8-KPH an hour :(


https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/sessions/GOES16_1km_ir_201909012255_20.25_32.50_-89.25_-65.25_ir1_ltng16_hgwy_warn_weathernerds.png

[Mr Quatro]

I've been watching the weather channel for two days now ...
The eye of the storm is still tracking West even after the eye came into contact
with the Bahamas.

I thought it would've turned toward the North by now, but now it's only going 5mph ... Could this thing refuse to turn and wreck the entire East coast of Florida up to North Carolina?

Perhaps it just keeps tracking right across Florida?

Just a few more hours till we know, but at 5mph it's not going to hit anything for a long time ...:yep:

[em2nought]

Good luck to everyone. It's been pointing directly at me for the past several days. LOL

[Rockstar]

I've been watching the weather channel for two days now ...
The eye of the storm is still tracking West even after the eye came into contact
with the Bahamas.

I thought it would've turned toward the North by now, but now it's only going 5mph ... Could this thing refuse to turn and wreck the entire East coast of Florida up to North Carolina?

Perhaps it just keeps tracking right across Florida?

Just a few more hours till we know, but at 5mph it's not going to hit anything for a long time ...:yep:


Latest from Tropical Tidbits (https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/) where this fella will explain the possibilities much better than the weather channel has time for


https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=291&v=E4BAXqEcGYk

[Onkel Neal]

Good luck to everyone. It's been pointing directly at me for the past several days. LOL

Where are you?

[em2nought]

Where are you?


About twenty miles above Lake Okeechobee, but at least I'm in the center of the state. :up:

[Mr Quatro]

Hurricane Dorian is now stalled over Freeport, Bahamas at 3am in the morning
with the storm still CAT 5 wind speed 175mph gust up to 200 mph and on top
that the storm is only going 2mph still tracking West ...:o

Those poor people in it's path must be hurting and scared for their lives :yep:

[Reece]

I have a small idea what they are going through, we had a small tornado go through right next to our house, trees came down and we lost part of our verandah. I was outside huddled against the wall praying, it was the scariest thing I've been through, this thing though is a monster!! I pray no one gets hurt but that is probably not likely.:doh::hmmm:

[Jimbuna]

I have a small idea what they are going through, we had a small tornado go through right next to our house, trees came down and we lost part of our verandah. I was outside huddled against the wall praying, it was the scariest thing I've been through, this thing though is a monster!! I pray no one gets hurt but that is probably not likely.:doh::hmmm:

The first victim is reported to be an eight-year-old boy and his sister is still missing.

[Onkel Neal]

Hurricane Dorian is now stalled over Freeport, Bahamas at 3am in the morning
with the storm still CAT 5 wind speed 175mph gust up to 200 mph and on top
that the storm is only going 2mph still tracking West ...:o

Those poor people in it's path must be hurting and scared for their lives :yep:

God Almighty, the only thing worse than a monster hurricane is a monster hurricane that stalls right on top of you.

[Kptlt. Neuerburg]

It's now a Cat 4 moving at 1 mph heading WNW.

[Mr Quatro]

Dorian is going to be somewhere on the East coast for the rest of the week :yep:

[Rockstar]

Live ZNS News Bahamas.

https://www.facebook.com/znsnewsofficial/videos/490417911754774/?hc_ref=ARSKYqeKlojsDgiDRm5gnbtgJRIeOa0JwTlI9wQhEn 7AtpZfhfsQCtn9HxPtxRCrjdE


Tropical Tidbits update

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=116&v=_K5L-ezGq4Y

[Jimbuna]

It's now a Cat 4 moving at 1 mph heading WNW.

1 mph :o

[Onkel Neal]

I do not remember ever seeing one this powerful stall before. It's bad enough to be hit by a hurricane, it's worse for one to camp out on you. This is legendary.

[Mr Quatro]

Hurricane Dorian is finally on the move this morning's update has her as a CAT 3 hurricane with winds up to 120mph headed northwest at the speed of 1 mph :o

At this rate Dorian should make land fall sometime in October :D

[Kptlt. Neuerburg]

So now that it's finally moving at a pace that would make a sloth look fast there's also four more, that's right FOUR more storms moving across the Atlantic and they all have the potential to be the next hurricane! I also should note that Dorian's eye wall has collapsed and so far this is been the most unpredictable hurricane that I've ever seen. It has done almost every time the exact opposite of what the forecasters said it would do.

[Mr Quatro]

Whooe! Dorian is up to 2mph now :o

[Mr Quatro]

Dorian has left the Bahamas behind and is now headed northwest as a cat 2 storm of 110 mph @ 6mph ... This is what she left behind ... Unbelievable!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rv08_dzb_Xw

[em2nought]

The golf course and carts seem to have done pretty well. I expected to see lots of boats strewn about, but it was hard for me to identify anything as a boat from that footage. :hmmm:

[Rockstar]

Jeebus, It's unrecognizable but I think that's whats left of Marsh Harbor. Scary part is there is absolutely no sign of life :(

[Mr Quatro]

I don't know how many people live in the Bahamas, but I do know they are all without food, water or a hospital. They need help right away.

The Bahamas are still ruled by the UK, right? The UK should send their new aircraft carrier to help them stabilize.:yep:

[Buddahaid]

Horrible, but entirely believable. Looks to be on a course to land near Cape Hatteras after intensifying. Hope it finds an off shore death.

[Jimbuna]

I'm amazed the current death toll is as low as seven but that figure is expected to rise.

[mapuc]

Using the history from the disaster in Haiti

I know that people without morale will pop-up.
(they are on the net all the time, but at huge disasters the numbers multiplies)

Giving the impression they are collecting money for the people in Bahamas.

Markus

[Rockstar]

I'm amazed the current death toll is as low as seven but that figure is expected to rise.


I would expect so, there just isn't that many places to run too on an island. Below is before and after satellite imagery of Grand Bahama. What I think was Marsh Harbor in video from post #29 is further east on Great Abaco.


https://miami.cbslocal.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/15909786/2019/09/Grand-Bahama-Island-Before-and-After-Dorian.jpg


Anyway, on a side note. Looks like the eye wall of Dorian has broken up some. Some computer models indicate wind speeds may be lowering to tropical storm force within 48 or so hours

[Mr Quatro]

There is a better video of all the boats thrown about over on MSNBC, but I don't know how to transfer it over here. So many boats and nice ones to.

I think Jim's son's cruise ship was even docked here one time for bottom cleaning.

[Jimbuna]

There is a better video of all the boats thrown about over on MSNBC, but I don't know how to transfer it over here. So many boats and nice ones to.

I think Jim's son's cruise ship was even docked here one time for bottom cleaning.

I don't remember but I'll ask him tonight.

[Jimbuna]

There is a better video of all the boats thrown about over on MSNBC, but I don't know how to transfer it over here. So many boats and nice ones to.

I think Jim's son's cruise ship was even docked here one time for bottom cleaning.

Just spoken to my boy and you are indeed correct. His company dry-docking facility is there and it was back in 2015 when he was last there.