Russian Politics Thread

[Jimbuna]

We already have a UK, US and German threads so here is the Russian one.

Please remain courteous and polite toward contributors or failing that don't forget the rules of this forum.

[Skybird]

Vodka...! :Kaleun_Cheers:In exactly these glasses!

[ikalugin]

Well I guess I can look on the bright side - I can post all the aricles and videos that I like in one place now. Such as those ones:
https://youtu.be/8X7Ng75e5gQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z5TMi82LmIo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-DpW9yaSXiI

[Mr Quatro]

Cheers! May we be friends till the end :up:

http://gaia.adage.com/images/bin/image/x-large/0102-p21-russian-beer.jpg

[Bilge_Rat]

So I guess this is the right place to discuss the implications of the Ivan Golunov case?

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/06/ivan-golunov-putin-puppet-master-myth/591469/

That case and other similar incidents have some wondering if Putin's hold on power is slipping.

“There is a joke popular among the Moscow elite,” Dmitry Gudkov, a Russian opposition politician, told me, “that Putin is only an avatar of the Russian secret service—he lives in a bubble, he is fed by the system, and he cannot control it any longer.”

thoughts?

[Sailor Steve]

Well I guess I can look on the bright side - I can post all the aricles and videos that I like in one place now. Such as those ones:
The bright side for me is getting to see what interests Russians about their own system. It will be awhile before I can watch them in their entirety, but thanks for posting those.

[Catfish]

Well, i took all this time and watched the first of those videos with Mr Pozner, and i found myself agreeing to some of his points alright. Let's say he almost "got me" until the last question, about the poisoning. There were multiple cases, just to remind.. body language, he does no believe what he's saying.
I found myself agreeing to lot of other points though. Very interesting and a good start i'd say, but will need time for the other videos.

Just before long i believed there could be more exchange (also students) and trade with Russia, while promoting and comparing "civilian society" in Russia during those "Petersbruger Gespraeche", but it all came to nought after the Crimea annexation.. umm ..'incident'. No dialogue, comment, let alone critic or anything was allowed by the russian participants. I was somehow indirectly involved, and i saw a lot of germans completely baffled after decades of meetings. Only talk about trade questions anymore, it was a direct backfall in cold war times.
The next will be 18th "Petersburger Dialog" 18. to 20ieth july 2019 at the Petersberg in Koenigswinter. Let us hope there will be some progress :hmmm:

[August]

Cheers! May we be friends till the end :up:

http://gaia.adage.com/images/bin/image/x-large/0102-p21-russian-beer.jpg




OK I get the four to the right but what's Russian about Tuborg?

[ikalugin]

So I guess this is the right place to discuss the implications of the Ivan Golunov case?
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/06/ivan-golunov-putin-puppet-master-myth/591469/
That case and other similar incidents have some wondering if Putin's hold on power is slipping.
thoughts?
Gudkov lives in his own make belief world, but the bulk of the article is correct.


If I were to use an analogy (which is not entirely correct but serves the task of illustrating the point) we have a quasi feudal system, where different groups (and even different levels within the same group) operate under the own agenda and understanding of the greater Russian interests, without much cooperation (ie my vassal's vassal is not my vassal - you do not really know what subordinates of your subordinate are doing).
This leads for example to FSB backed hackers leaking Medvedev's emails, amongst many other things.

[Mr Quatro]

OK I get the four to the right but what's Russian about Tuborg?

Perhaps it was based on the photographer's taste more than anything else the article had something to do with too much drinking alcohol in Russia.

[ikalugin]

I mean it is sold/advertised in here. (I think, I don't drink beer)

[ikalugin]

Is anyone here not aware of the 2007 Munich speech first hand (ie reading the speech itself rather than various, ehem, second hand interpretations of it)?

[Catfish]

^ I hope most are aware, though even when those responsible heard it back then, it seems they were not listening :03:

Quoting Wiki, ok, but the text is correct (Putin's Munich Conference of security speech):
https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Speech_and_the_Following_Discussion_at_the_Munich_ Conference_on_Security_Policy

No western 'politician' would clearly state points like that, explain it and make proposals. Another chance lost by the west.

Germany is of course again wiggling along between its own interests, economy, US trade interests and blunt pressure from all sides.
When i heard that speech and what followed (nothing, by the west) i had for the first time the strong impression of german (and western) political incompetence.
Again: Another chance lost by the west.

I am aware the US has its own strategies, and democracy is not the main driving interest. Wolfovitz, Cheney, the late(!) Zbigniew Brzezinski (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zbigniew_Brzezinski) etc.. enough said.


But what could have had become of it, with a little more courtesy. Sad.

[STEED]

I know this is not a political question but it is a Russian question. Is it true Russian drunk is vodka champagne vodka? Granted that bit of info was from the spy series Smiley's People.

[ikalugin]

I have seen this happen, however the norm (amongst civilised people that is) is:
- not to go down in ethanol content
- not to mix differently sourced drinks

[ikalugin]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mBf2nMVeWps
Good video on Russian Navy, though I disagree on some points.

[ikalugin]

So did anyone watch all of the videos that I have linked yet? :)

[Catfish]

Hi, not the last yet, too much to do and difficult during work :03:

But will.

[ikalugin]

Hi, not the last yet, too much to do and difficult during work :03:

But will.
This implies that you have watched all but the last :)

[ikalugin]

https://www.rbc.ru/rbcfreenews/5d1f50249a7947e791da7571
An aid to the presedent's representative in Ural region arrested for treason. Allegedly he worked for american and polish intel.

[ikalugin]

https://www.forbes.ru/obshchestvo/379281-u-rossiyan-mogut-poyavitsya-elektronnye-pasporta-v-dvuh-versiyah

Apparently we are getting the new IDs, which can take form of an app on your smartphone.

[Dmitry Markov]

ikalugin, I’m very terrified of that - I hope there would be an option to reject electronic ID. Even without it there are news on mail.ru of private property ( flats mostly) being stolen from common people by fraudery with electronic signatures. And electronic signature has less importancy than passport.

[ikalugin]

ikalugin, I’m very terrified of that - I hope there would be an option to reject electronic ID. Even without it there are news on mail.ru of private property ( flats mostly) being stolen from common people by fraudery with electronic signatures. And electronic signature has less importancy than passport.
The app seems to be voluntary, for the time being atleast. The signature is going to be issued with the card, on the chip.

Fraud was always common, so the question is how much easier/harder it is to commit fraud when compared to old methods. The other trade off is between ease of use and security, ideally there should be several settings I guess, for the individual to decide.

[Rockstar]

We have what used to be known as The People's Access Security Service Card (PASS), issued to U.S. citizens only. Probably sounded to Stalinist or 1984-ish so they changed the name to United States Passport Card. It's a National ID card used for domestic travel and between Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative member states. (emphasis mine)

For international travel a paper passport is still issued but nowadays it has a bio-metrics chip embedded in it which probably contains everything your new ID card will have. There is also an option to download a mobile app, its designed for a traveller to answer all the questions normally asked at the border to help cut down on processing time. But it doesn't replace the Passport or Passport card. The way I see it, paper, plastic or mobile app I dont think it matters really. It's all in place just to keep the honest people honest. Criminals can always find a weakness and a way in.

[Mr Quatro]

We have what used to be known as The People's Access Security Service Card (PASS), issued to U.S. citizens only. Probably sounded to Stalinist or 1984-ish so they changed the name to United States Passport Card. It's a National ID card used for domestic travel and between Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative member states. (emphasis mine)

For international travel a paper passport is still issued but nowadays it has a bio-metrics chip embedded in it which probably contains everything your new ID card will have. There is also an option to download a mobile app, its designed for a traveller to answer all the questions normally asked at the border to help cut down on processing time. But it doesn't replace the Passport or Passport card. The way I see it, paper, plastic or mobile app I dont think it matters really. It's all in place just to keep the honest people honest. Criminals can always find a weakness and a way in.

In other words the future is here starting with the upper class which will in turn become normal for the lower classes sooner or later. Already California is offering (not mandatory yet) a certified Drivers License that must be in your hand by October 2020 to be used to be able to fly in or out of California airports which I suppose is in reality a Homeland Security measure that will be mandatory sooner or later.

The 666 number as described in the Book of Revelations (last chapter of the New Testament) is gaining on us. Which I believe will become mandatory after a major earthquake or nuclear confrontation with another nuclear power to prove that you are a US citizen and therefore entitled to health care benefits. :yep:

[ikalugin]

We have two passports:
- internal
- external


Former is a mandatory ID you need, for, well, everything. It is, ofc, free of charge, as asking payment for a state issued mandatory ID is silly. The new system would replace said internal passport. As you may guess we are not paranoid about state issued IDs the same way americans are and yes, you need one to vote.

[Jimbuna]

Is it mandatory to vote in Russia?

Quite honestly if it isn't I don't see the point in bothering.

[ikalugin]

Is it mandatory to vote in Russia?

Quite honestly if it isn't I don't see the point in bothering.

No, you can stay at home.

As to bothering, well ironically that is one of the reasons why Putin gets the votes - some of the opposition got demoralised and did not vote against him. Locally the current establishment did not do as well as they would like.

[Catfish]

With the right rfid chip or nfc installed, the presence of said card can be sensed and identified everywhere.
So it is not only good for voting, but so to speak a private "Gestapo to carry along".
Nations' governments like to know where everyone is, or does. But don't smirk, London is much much worse :D

[Rockstar]

...As you may guess we are not paranoid about state issued IDs the same way americans are and yes, you need one to vote.


unlike most I guess, I see it simply as using existing technology. No different than when cameras invented and they started placing your picture on the ID card. Can it be abused, yes. I just to follow my banking institution's security recommendation, apply some common sense and exsisting tech to protect my accounts and personal information.

[Jimbuna]

Nations' governments like to know where everyone is, or does. But don't smirk, London is much much worse :D

That only came about as a result of the Blitz :)

[Catfish]

That only came about as a result of the Blitz :)
You guys are just jealous we invented the nazis before you did :O:

[Jimbuna]

You guys are just jealous we invented the nazis before you did :O:

Touche :)

[ikalugin]

With the right rfid chip or nfc installed, the presence of said card can be sensed and identified everywhere.
So it is not only good for voting, but so to speak a private "Gestapo to carry along".
Nations' governments like to know where everyone is, or does. But don't smirk, London is much much worse :D
I mean like the state couldn't already do this via phones. And let us be honest - people are going to carry their phones more often than their IDs.


So it becomes the matter of resources and motivation and fortunately, Russian state has neither to the extend that security service was lobbying for softening up survailance legislation.


Plus you can always buy an RFID envelope if you are turbo paranoid.

[August]

RFID chip? No problem.


https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/2102/8057/products/lockwalletallsmall650x650_1024x1024.jpg?v=15414364 44

[ikalugin]

Remember that official arrested for treason?
https://www.rbc.ru/society/09/07/2019/5d24a44c9a794710572b26bd?fromtg=1
Well, allegedly he was sending transcripts of the security council meetings abroad.

[August]

What official? All I see is some guy in a ski mask surrounded by foreign writing.

[ikalugin]

What official? All I see is some guy in a ski mask surrounded by foreign writing.
It was reported by me here earlier.
https://www.rbc.ru/rbcfreenews/5d1f50249a7947e791da7571
An aid to the president's representative in Ural region arrested for treason. Allegedly he worked for american and polish intel.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Presidential_Administration_of_Russia
You can read about the regional representatives (envoys) in there.


Essentially they have a key macro-regional coordination role for the executive branch.

[August]

Yeah Russian language links don't help me but I was mainly curious about the ski mask. That's the same guy in the small inset pic just below right? What exactly is he or the state trying to conceal?

[ikalugin]

Apparently yes. That is not reported.

[August]

Apparently yes. That is not reported.


What do you mean not reported? That would generate considerable coverage and discussion over here.

[ikalugin]

What exactly is he or the state trying to conceal? That is not reported.
What do you mean not reported? That would generate considerable coverage and discussion over here. You have asked two questions. I have answered them in the order they were asked. I am not aware of any reporting about the mask. Not sure why it would be newsworthy. One reason I can think of - he may have been trying to conceal his identity and it may have worked, considering how there are restrictions on the case materials due to it's nature.

[ikalugin]

First S-400s got delivered to Turkey. I wonder what the US reaction is going to be.

[Jimbuna]

One of or all three possibly :hmmm:

Exclusion from the F-35 programme.
Possible sanctions.
Eventual expulsion of Turkey fro NATO.

Who can predict how Trump will react.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-48962885

[Rockstar]

There is no rule which prohibits NATO members from purchasing Russian weapon systems. War is big business, and Turkey just gave Russia a truck load of money for these missiles. I'd bet, NATO members are just getting their panties in a wad because Turkey isn't buying their products.

What Russia needs to be wary of is Turkey providing NATO S-400 technology and capabilities. Because lets face it the divide in Turkish Russian relations has run deep for a very long time with no substantial improvements in sight.

[ikalugin]

S400 is a mature system. We would sell them to US if US was buying.

[Rockstar]

Well, then it probably boils down to missed business opportunities. :yep:

[ikalugin]

Well, then it probably boils down to missed business opportunities. :yep:
US alleges that Turkish use of S400 is going to compromise US&co security.

[Rockstar]

From what I've read about it. Some say no matter how mature it is, the S-400 system is continually upgraded and is still very capable and dangerous weapon, difficult to locate and deactivate. However on the flip side countermeasure systems are very closely guarded secrets. People like us will not know what can be done about the S-400 until the shooting starts.

The main argument against Turkey having them seems to be the S-400 detection system can transmit data about our newest aircraft. Problem I see with that argument is Turkey isnt the only one in the area with a S-400. I've read Saudi Arabia, India, China have spent multi-billions of (U.S.) dollars acquiring them. Belarus got there's for free!

General Joseph Votel told a Congressional hearing that certain allied nations are now looking to fulfill their arms needs elsewhere due to political considerations, cost, or delivery speed. "When our partners go elsewhere, it reduces our interoperability and challenges our ability to incorporate their contributions into theater efforts," he explained. Joint operations become harder to plan and manage, as the difference in weapons’ performances, handling procedures, and training of personnel mounts. It still seems to me war is big business and for Turkey and others in their eyes it just made good political and business sense. Turkey in a historically deep divide with Russia and pissing off NATO might soon find itself being the target of both.

[Jimbuna]

There is no rule which prohibits NATO members from purchasing Russian weapon systems. War is big business, and Turkey just gave Russia a truck load of money for these missiles. I'd bet, NATO members are just getting their panties in a wad because Turkey isn't buying their products.

What Russia needs to be wary of is Turkey providing NATO S-400 technology and capabilities. Because lets face it the divide in Turkish Russian relations has run deep for a very long time with no substantial improvements in sight.

Yeah, I suppose winds tend to blow both ways :yep:

[Skybird]

The divide in Turkish Russian interests I consider to be less prominent than is claimed. In the end the shared political opponent both want to reduce in infliueunce - Europe - is compensating. And I think Putin is fitter than Europe to handle Erdoghan's overblown ego.

I doubt however that it is strategic or economic calculation that made Turkey go for the Russian system. Its simply about Erdoghan'S blown-up ego. He is a supreme, great, superior leader who knows it all better, who take sno advice, and cannot stand to back down, you know.

As I said in the other thread, I like the way things go. If the Americans stick to their announcement, Turkey is out of the F35 programn, has lost a lot of money that Trump will not pay back, Erdoghan will be pissed, turkey is closer to leaving or getting kicked from NATO, and Europeans will need to finally realise that they have a big problem with Turkey, and with their southern military flank. I like any of these details, and if becoming real in a pack, the better! The louder the wakeup call to the EU and NATO, the greater the chance that finally somebody will wake up. Merkel has pushed Europe into great dependency from Erdoghan's good will in the migration route issue. I will find the sight of Europeans squirming and writhing before Erdoghan and then paying him more money and concessions, most entertaining.

[ikalugin]

S400 is a capable, but as I have said, a mature system. The data argument is weak because as a rule we provide source codes for software our equipment runs.

[ikalugin]

https://ic.pics.livejournal.com/colonelcassad/19281164/2155105/2155105_900.jpg
Ukrainian parliamentary elections. The green party is the one that is run by the current president - Zelensky and is named after the TV show he stared in (he was playing the role of Ukrainian president).


I wonder if they are the democratic regime with checks and balances that the Western nations seeked to build :hmmm: .

[Jimbuna]

Surely can't be any worse than that in Russia, surely :hmmm:

[Skybird]

In several places in Europe parties of non-established newcomers are blossoming. The Ukrainian result could become a problem for the EU if Selenski accepts to normalise relations with Russia at the price of accepting the russian strategy in the Donbass region, which would in fact be a justification for Putin's strategy. Selenski campaigned with the slogan of wanting to end the war in the East. The EU cannot like it, although the EU lacks the power and tools to challenge Putin over his way of playing the big game. It seems that Selenski's fans are a very diverse group, from Europe-friends to people who want a stronger tie with Russia again.

The general orientation is something that the Ukrainians must settle amongst themselves. And I am the last who argues on behalf of EU interests - I only recognise them as what they are, not more. That I do so does not mean I sympathise with them.

Selenski will become very uncomfortable for the EU, I think. Not because he is so strong, but because the EU is so weak.

[ikalugin]

The issue for Zelensky is in Crimea, not in Donbas. While there are plausible ways to get Donbas back in some capacity or another (though even that would be hard considering mutual de-humanisation between Kiev loyalist and Donbas separatists), Crimea is not going back into Ukraine.

[ikalugin]

Surely can't be any worse than that in Russia, surely :hmmm:
Same patern that is developing across the whole Eastern Europe really. Except that in some cases (Ukraine) it is supported by the West and in some (Hungary) it is not.

[Skybird]

The issue for Zelensky is in Crimea, not in Donbas. While there are plausible ways to get Donbas back in some capacity or another (though even that would be hard considering mutual de-humanisation between Kiev loyalist and Donbas separatists), Crimea is not going back into Ukraine.
Indeed, thats why I do not even mention Crimea any more here. He cannot win anything on the Crimea issue, but he could maybe get a peace deal with Russia over the Eastern Ukraine, with Ukrainian people probably being very tired of the ongoing war there. If he gets it, it would be a de facto recognition of the Russian strategy on both Donbas and Crimea - and in stark contrast to the official position of the EU which sees both areas as Russian annexations and does not want it getting recognised for that reason. If Selisnky gets a poecae in the east anbd leaves the Crimea as it is, Russia wins and the diplomatic psotiion of the EU is in ruins.



Another EU diplomatic strategy disaster, after Syria, Egypt, Libya, Turkey, migration, Iran, Trumponomics, and no resistance worth the name to China. :har:

[ikalugin]

The issue is not so much with Russia - the issue is with the locals in Donbas, as Russia has already agreed on a path we would follow if Kiev does it's part. Ofc that path was unacceptable to Poroshenko's regime, which relied on the war for justifying it's actions.

If you deny their agency (that they themselves desired to rebel over legitimate cause), if you de-humanise them (by calling them drunks and drug addicts), punish civilians materially by denying pensions etc (and I am not even mentioning dubious behaviour by various non state actors like the infamous rape mansion) they are going to resent you.

And that resentment is not going to go away easily or quickly even if there are established pathways ie the Minsk set up.

[Skybird]

That clean the issue is not, the separatists in the east are far more pro-Russian and Russia-supported and -controlled than you want to admit. ;) Moscow probably is as deep into the Donbass story as it was and is into the Crimea story. Many names that emerged over the past years as associates of the separatists or leading personnel of theirs, had very close ties to Moscow, and the Russian intelligence services, also organised crime. Even when consideri8ng the weklaness of the Kiev governments and their own corruption problems and links to organised crime in the Ukraine, I doubt there would have been a big rebellion in the Donbass like there was (and still is) without strong Russian motivation and assistance.


Putin just days ago outlined his udnerstanfing of that Russia and Ukraine, Russians and Ukrainians are practically just onew people, Western media reported. For Ukrainian ears this must sound like an unhidden threatening with things to come in the close future.

[ikalugin]

The problem with separatists in Donbas is that they have agency and are not simple extension of Putin's will. Many of them are not even (quasi) state actors, but non state actors, though there are fewer of those now, after there was some internal clean up.

Much like say Kurds (or any other number of factions) in Syria - while their backers can influence them to an extend, they still have their own agendas that they prioritise. And if Kiev can't (or won't) work with them, Donbas is not going to get solved. So Kiev really needs to get it's act together, rein in their own non state groups (they did that to an extend - the rape mansion got closed down few years ago for example) and go ahead with Minsk style steps.

Unless ofc we are considering some sort of one sided military scenario, but even those are less plausible now (if Russia allows them to happen ofc), with locals setting up their own officer schools, repair shops and the like.

[Jimbuna]

^ Why delete?

I wouldn't have, it's all over the news here in the UK.

[ikalugin]

^ Why delete?

I wouldn't have, it's all over the news here in the UK.
What happened?

[Catfish]

Was about demonstrations in Moscow, i deleted the post because the videos showed too much violence or so i thought. But they are all over the internet as mentioned. Probably not in RT of course.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-politics-protests/russian-opposition-plans-new-protest-despite-over-1000-arrests-idUSKCN1UU0G1

[Jimbuna]

The BBC footage showing what a growing number of people are calling 'Russian democracy in action'

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-49218726

[Catfish]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-49125045

[Jimbuna]

To put it simply: Covert Sptsnaz training :)

[Skybird]

Tzars and peasants - was it ever different in Russia? I don't think so.

[Jimbuna]

^ How can you say that when it is estimated that Putins personal wealth stands somewhere in the region of a meagre $200 billion?

[ikalugin]

Ahh, those, yea they were so well covered by western media (in a very specific one sided way but still) that I forgot to mention it, my entire twitter feed was full of virtue signalling on that front, even had a discussion on them just over a week ago with an expert on constitutional law.

[ikalugin]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-04/putin-s-pledge-to-ditch-the-dollar-is-slowly-becoming-a-reality
This article may be of interest. In short - Russia is making progress in moving from trade in USD to trade in local currencies.

[Dmitry Markov]

Importancy of those clowns on protest actions is well-illustrated by the fact that an event " Шашлыки live" in Gorky Park this weekend was visited by over 300 000 people even in far from good weather while unauthorised protest action attracted less than 6000... As our classic has once told about Decabrists : " They were too few and they were too far from people ..." However, mentioning Decabrists in context with modern hipster-protest-clowns is to give the latter too much credit. Anyway the size and importancy of these actions is exaggerated in Western press just as actions of nationalists in Georgia are exaggerated by our press. With all my dislike to modern power in Russia (due to several reasons) - modern "opposition" does everything to earn my disdain rather than to make me their apologist.

My attention this weekend was toward Tank Biathlon - and especially toward our ladies crews diving T-80UE-1 for the first time in these competitions - that was a thing I've been watching on our TV :-) "Girls Und Panzer" come alive ))
This video is a true eye-candy for every sofa-militarist
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fUngtBRogWM

Interesting that for most part these girls aren't professional tankists - they are military personnel of course but have other specialities - medics, comms etc and they deliberately volunteered to participate ( either for fun and for bonuses of course ) when MD announced they'll allow women crews.

[ikalugin]

http://atominfo.ru/newsz/a0009.htm
Rosatom's investment strategy to 2035 includes construction of only 19 reactor blocks with 21,4 GW power output.

[Catfish]

Thanks for the warning.

[ikalugin]

Thanks for the warning.
If anything this is good news, as RBMKs are (finally) getting replaced by gen 3+ reactors instead of having life extensions. And while RBMKs are pretty cool to visit I would rather have 3rd/3rd+ gen reactors or better still 4th gen reactors replacing them (and other 2nd gen).


And those gen 3+ reactors are pretty safu. You can read more here:
https://www.oecd-nea.org/ndd/workshops/innovtech/presentations/documents/ii-1a-maltsev.pdf

[Catfish]

Thanks, this is interesting.
But I still think that nuclear power as mankind uses it is inherent unsafe, and no one knows how to deal with the remnants. B.t.w. Chernobyl is said by experts to have killed between 43 and 14000 People, indirectly of course and hard to prove.
“The risk projections suggest that by now Chernobyl may have caused about 1,000 cases of thyroid cancer and 4,000 cases of other cancers in Europe, representing about 0.01% of all incident cancers since the accident,” it reads. “Models predict that by 2065 about 16,000 (95% UI 3,400–72,000) cases of thyroid cancer and 25,000 (95% UI 11,000–59,000) cases of other cancers may be expected due to radiation from the accident.”
Meaning if one country plays with radio nuclides, the whole world will have to face the consequences of incompetence.

Not entirely off topic, what happened in Archangelsk two days ago? Radioactive spike?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/10/russian-nuclear-agency-confirms-role-in-rocket-test-explosion
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-49295521

Seems Rosatom is involved. I really had to laugh when i heard that the european branch of "Rosatom" is called "NUKEM". How fitting.

[ikalugin]

Coal power plants release more radioactivity per MW of installed power due to them constantly burning large quantities of coal which contain small proportions of radioactive materials. But as with the frogs people do not notice themselves being slowly boiled so to speak.

As to the waste - with fast reactors you can close the fuel cycle and more or less re-use the fuel. One of such set ups would be BREST-300-OD and BN-800 and BN-1200 though only BN-800 made it so far and the others have uncertain fates.

As to the incident near to Severodvinsk - it is unclear as to what has happened there, but 5 Rosatom (well, their subsidiery) employees died, most likely from radioactive exposure and there was a small/short time period spike in gamma radioactivity in the nearby Severodvinsk but no tell tale signs of reactor mulfunction (ie no radioactive Iodine).
My hypothesis from available reporting is that they have had a chemical explosion of some sort in close proximity to radio-thermal power source they were working on.

[Catfish]

Seems it was one of Russia's nuclear-powered drones that exploded in Archangelsk
https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article198466225/SSC-X-9-Skyfall-Russische-Riesendrohne-mit-Atomantrieb-explodiert.html


Google translate:
https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=de&sl=de&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.welt.de%2Fwirtschaft%2Farticle 198466225%2FSSC-X-9-Skyfall-Russische-Riesendrohne-mit-Atomantrieb-explodiert.html

[Dmitry Markov]

Thanks, this is interesting.
But I still think that nuclear power as mankind uses it is inherent unsafe, and no one knows how to deal with the remnants. B.t.w. Chernobyl is said by experts to have killed between 43 and 14000 People, indirectly of course and hard to prove.
“The risk projections suggest that by now Chernobyl may have caused about 1,000 cases of thyroid cancer and 4,000 cases of other cancers in Europe, representing about 0.01% of all incident cancers since the accident,” it reads. “Models predict that by 2065 about 16,000 (95% UI 3,400–72,000) cases of thyroid cancer and 25,000 (95% UI 11,000–59,000) cases of other cancers may be expected due to radiation from the accident.”
Meaning if one country plays with radio nuclides, the whole world will have to face the consequences of incompetence..

As for Chernobyl Disaster - better read true experts like Dr. Robert Gale https://cancerletter.com/articles/chernobyl/ - totally proven number of victims of this tragedy is 31 person. All other numbers are fruit of speculation. Hundreds of former Liquidators had contacts with medicine of different seriousness but most part of them are still alive. And these were the people who were in the most dangerous zone. As for cancer - there is nice tab in Dr Gale's article showing which part of all possible causes radiation takes.

[Catfish]

If you say so.

[ikalugin]

Seems it was one of Russia's nuclear-powered drones that exploded in Archangelsk
https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article198466225/SSC-X-9-Skyfall-Russische-Riesendrohne-mit-Atomantrieb-explodiert.html
Media reporting is a bit hasty right now.

[Dmitry Markov]

A Miracle in a corn field near Zhukovsky ( LII airfield in Moscow Region used as a newest international airport in addition to previous three: SVO, VNU, DMO): yesterday pilots of A-321 with 200+passengers onboard after collision with birds in both engines managed to belly-land on a corn field - everyone SURVIVED ))) Great crew!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3zsoBt3I5B8

[Dmitry Markov]

Very good and un-biased article about tragedy in Nenoxa polygon:

https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/the-medias-russian-radiation-story-implodes-upon-scrutiny/

[Aktungbby]

A Miracle in a corn field near Zhukovsky ( LII airfield in Moscow Region used as a newest international airport in addition to previous three: SVO, VNU, DMO): yesterday pilots of A-321 with 200+passengers onboard after collision with birds in both engines managed to belly-land on a corn field - everyone SURVIVED ))) Great crew!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3zsoBt3I5B8I wonder what is the Russian word for 'Sully', :k_confused::yeah:whether the Hudson River or a nice tall well-stalked cornfield after an engine-kill birdstrike to soften the belly landing...I wonder if the Russian pilot remembered to announce "brace for impact" to the crew and passengers?:D:Kaleun_Salute:

[ikalugin]

Well Erdogan was in Moscow yesterday on MAKS-2019.

[ikalugin]

https://translate.google.ru/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.kommersant.ru%2Fdoc%2F4094365
Belorussia pursues deeper integration with Russia.


https://strategy.csr.ru/user/themes/standart/files/csr.compressed.pdf
Russian developmental program. Not sure how to autotranslate it :(

[ikalugin]

https://youtu.be/Vo86J1WlgJ0
A good video, but sadly without translation, on Russia and Ukraine.

[Catfish]

Russian court to rule in trial of historian who found Stalin-era graves (Reuters)

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-historian/russian-court-to-rule-in-trial-of-historian-who-found-stalin-era-graves-idUSKCN24N0CZ

[Jimbuna]

The Kremlin has said it is not involved in the case. Asked about whether it is driven by politics, state prosecutors have said it based on real evidence.

Then the band played 'Believe it if you like'

[Dmitry Markov]

I don't think his case has anything with his gulag research - taking into account all that anti-stalinism and anti sovietism in our official media. If you'd live here you'd thought that our authorities are kind of shizo: We celebrate Victory, but we cover Lenin's Mausoleum with plywood; We are proud of Soviet space program but we make films about bloodthirsty Soviet officials who do everything to hopple engineers and cosmonauts; We are proud of Soviet sports program - but we make films about sportsmen who dreamed of defecting westwards; We hate 90-s and Perestroika but we build multi-billion Yeltsin-center and we let Gorbachev to live on rent from his fund. :o With all that films by Yury Dud' ( Colyma - a motherland of our fear) and tons of other antisoviet bsht which is on every corner, omnipresent museums of Gulag where eager attendants would tell you that "half-of-country-was-sitting-and-the-other-half-was-guarding", Ministers of Culture and Head of administration who take part in opening a memorial plates to Carl Mannerheim ( in St Petersburg! in a city which he helped to starve to death! )... to sue a person for anti-Stalin views or for gulag diggings in modern RF is a nonsence - (it's like in US someone would sue a person for resarches of McCarthysm ). I'd rather think that he either has done something wrong to his adopted daughter or there could be some disputed property - which is most frequent ground in cases with adopted children/harassment etc.

[Jimbuna]

Russian opposition figure Alexei Navalny is unconscious in hospital suffering from suspected poisoning, his spokeswoman has said.

The anti-corruption campaigner fell ill during a flight and the plane made an emergency landing in Omsk, Kira Yarmysh said, adding that they suspected something had been mixed into his tea.

The hospital said Mr Navalny was in a stable but serious condition.

Mr Navalny, 44, is a staunch critic of President Vladimir Putin.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-53844958

Makes a change from falling off balconies to the pavement below I suppose :hmmm:

[Skybird]

Exotic poison? Russia.

[Dmitry Markov]

I don't see any profit in poisoning this clown for our authorities - he has been known for some very strange "business" schemes which can be called "risky" at least and became so-called "oppositioner" after having problems with his shady deals. So as I always say - look for some property arguments in his inner circle. Or he must have drunk bad alcohol - doctors say that they've found alcohol in his blood (while his friends say otherwise - but as I've said - look into inner circle at first - cannot those "friends" be themselves associated?).
Another suggestion why government doesn't have anything in common with it - they've always freed him from police after multiple illegal meetings and always let him to have vacations on foreign 5-star resorts while some his followers who were arrested during those illegal meetings arranged by him were sentenсed to effective deprivation of liberty. According to Russian laws he also should have been sentenced to real imprisonment as constant organiser of illegal actions - but he always was freed after couple of days at police office. That makes think of his real role in political life...

But western press narrative would no doubt be: " Putin did it"...

[Mr Quatro]

But western press narrative would no doubt be: " Putin did it"...

Same here Dmitry ... whenever someone that opposed the Clintons people would say that Clinton did it :hmmm:

But what if both cases (US and Russia) have a left wing/right wing nut in powerful positions that take it upon themselves to correct the problem without a higher up being involved?

They would of course have to have some authority in order to get away with it.

Thank you for your input Dmitry :yep:

[Dmitry Markov]

Same here Dmitry ... whenever someone that opposed the Clintons people would say that Clinton did it :hmmm:

But what if both cases (US and Russia) have a left wing/right wing nut in powerful positions that take it upon themselves to correct the problem without a higher up being involved?

They would of course have to have some authority in order to get away with it.

Thank you for your input Dmitry :yep:

I was about to say the same about Clintons - in our social media they usually mentioned in discussions about suspicious misfortunes of public persons.

Sure I get your idea :yep:

Meahwhile a video from CCTV in Tomsk airport shows that notorious tea was brought to Navalny by his assistant - so again see what I've said: take a look into inner circle :ping:

Our President's head of PR Dmitry Peskov wishes well to Navalny and says that should Navalny need a transfer to Europe for healing - authorities would look into that matter and help. So Alexey once again will travel to 5-star foreign resort :-)

[Jimbuna]

After what happened to the Skripals a great many in the west have suspicions and arguably correctly so.

[Catfish]

^ I agree to a 100 percent. Clear message to all other critics, typical signature.

[Jimbuna]

Russian doctors say leading opposition figure Alexei Navalny remains too ill to be transferred to Germany for treatment after a possible poisoning.

Mr Navalny has been in a coma since Thursday when he fell ill on a flight and his supporters called the doctors' decision "a direct threat to his life".

They have cited a report of "a deadly substance", dangerous not only to Mr Navalny but to all around him.

However, a doctor now says "no poisons have been detected" by the tests.

Mr Navalny is a prominent critic of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

His team suspects a poisonous substance was put in his tea at an airport cafe.

Activists in Germany have sent a plane to bring Mr Navalny to Berlin for treatment.

The head doctor at the hospital in Siberia where he is being treated said Mr Navalny's condition had improved a little, but that he was still unstable. Alexander Murakhovsky said legal questions would need to be resolved before Mr Navalny could be moved.

But Mr Navalny's team said it was "deadly" for him to remain in the hospital.

"The ban on the transportation of Navalny is an attempt on his life, which is being made right now by doctors and the deceitful authorities who sanctioned it," Mr Navalny's spokeswoman Kira Yarmysh wrote on Twitter.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-53857563

[Skybird]

Alexej Nawalny

Pjotr Wersilow

Sergej and Julia Skripal

Wladimir Kara-Mursa

Alexander Perepilichny

Alexander Litwinenko



Just the poison-related assassinations/attempts counted.

[Catfish]

^ You forgot Zelimkhan Khangoshvili in the Tiergarten Berlin.

Of course, the Kreml never has anything to do with poisoning or removing critics, why would Putin do that?

Putin conspirative action. Putin's interest is not always Russia's interest, but most fail to see that.

:03:

[Jimbuna]

Alexei Navalny: Putin critic arrives in Germany for medical treatment
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-53871617

There are growing rumours that the delay for travel permission was carried out so any elements of whatever was in his blood would no longer be found.

[Bilge_Rat]

according to many Russia Watchers, if Navalny was poisoned, it was probably not ordered by Putin, but by another group jockeying for power. This is based on the response from the Kremlin which appears to have been surprised by the move.

Navalny was a nuisance, but more of a headache dead than alive, which is why it is unlikely to have been ordered by Putin.

Again, there seems to be a consensus among many Russia watchers, based on recent actions, that Putin will probably step down after his current term ends in 2024 and that he is busy laying the groundwork for his eventual successor. Putin also seems to be taking an increasingly hands off approach to running internal affairs.

Because of that, there is an "end of Regime" feel in Russia and many groups are maneuvering to increase their power base in anticipation of the "new" regime.

You have had many similar actions in the past few years, like the murder of Boris Nemtsov, which would have been unthinkable 10 years ago. Most go unreported in the West.

[Skybird]

Why then the move on changing the constitution? That has a longtime perspective.

[Catfish]

" ...the hospital said Navalny had fallen ill because of contamination from a cholinesterase inhibitor, adding that the specific substance was not known and analysis was ongoing. Cholinesterase inhibitors block an enzyme that is necessary for the proper function of the nervous system."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/24/alexei-navalny-was-probably-poisoned-says-germany

b.t.w. “The world’s most famous cholinesterase inhibitor is called novichok (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novichok_agent).”

[Mr Quatro]

Again, there seems to be a consensus among many Russia watchers, based on recent actions, that Putin will probably step down after his current term ends in 2024 and that he is busy laying the groundwork for his eventual successor.

Putin also seems to be taking an increasingly hands off approach to running internal affairs.

Because of that, there is an "end of Regime" feel in Russia and many groups are maneuvering to increase their power base in anticipation of the "new" regime.


A sure sign of Putin giving up the throne would be when he starts moving his assets to another country :yep:

[Bilge_Rat]

Why then the move on changing the constitution? That has a longtime perspective.

Depends who you read. Technically, he could remain president until 2036, but according to this article, the recent Constitutional changes is more a sign that he will step down in 2024 and retain some sort of "informal power":

The amendments strongly suggest that Putin will give up the presidency for good after 2024. “The same person cannot hold the post of president of the Russian federation for more than two terms,” the proposed text says. This drops the old formula, “two consecutive terms,” which allowed Putin to return to the presidency in 2012 after a four-year hiatus. Some legal commentators have suggested that the amendments may be tweaked to wipe the slate clean, allowing Putin to run again, but that would be the kind of brute-force move that Putin has eschewed, unlike the authoritarian lifetime rulers of some Central Asian states and Belarus.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/01/22/putins-biggest-surprise-seeking-a-strong-successor-a69001

Obviously, no one knows for sure, but Putin is smart enough to know that trying to hold on to power forever is a recipe for disaster. It is much smarter to follow the Chinese model where a new leader is appointed every 10 years or so.

[mapuc]

It would not surprise me if Russia ends in a Political vacuum when Putin withdraw from office.

Not only a vacuum, also a political chaos..Hopefully it will not end in a civil war.

Markus

[Mr Quatro]

It would not surprise me if Russia ends in a Political vacuum when Putin withdraw from office.

Not only a vacuum, also a political chaos..Hopefully it will not end in a civil war.

Markus

I pray for peace between our nations, but I don't see that happening ... :hmmm:

this Covid-19 thing has cost America a lot of tax revenue meaning we can't be sure of a strong economy to prop up our military more than it already is.

Not sure what it has cost Russia or China ... doesn't sound like much though.

[mapuc]

I pray for peace between our nations, but I don't see that happening ... :hmmm:

this Covid-19 thing has cost America a lot of tax revenue meaning we can't be sure of a strong economy to prop up our military more than it already is.

Not sure what it has cost Russia or China ... doesn't sound like much though.

First I thought I had posted my comment in the wrong thread(The US-thread)

Then I understood what you meant.

If it should happen-Russia end in a political chaos, I would say this to our leaders in the West:
STAY OUT Keep your fingers away from the beehive.

Markus

[Skybird]

Putin must made himself very many archenemies inside the apparatus and amongst the oligarchs on whom he onc ehad cracked down so determined after taking over form Yeltzin. He must know that, and he does know it, I recall that some years ago in some interview he indicatwed that. So how long will he still live if giving up the full powers that he has now? There are many weho may want to settle their open bills with him. In that interview, I saeem to recall, he indicated that he would be surprised if he ever dies of a natural death.


But I am not certain on the details of that interview anymore, my memory is vague. Its many years ago already.

[Skybird]

A sure sign of Putin giving up the throne would be when he starts moving his assets to another country :yep:
He is of the profession, KGB, he knows he cannot escape for example a Nawalny-style attack, means: exotic toxins finding their way into his food.

No, I think his only chance is to find a successor who indeed will actively keep a protecting hand over him and will not betray him. Justr trying to avoid threats will not be enough if somebody really wants revenge on him.

[Catfish]

May i add that Navalny is the only challenger, for Putin.

[August]

Wasn't Putins successor supposed to be Dimitri Medvedev? What happened?

[Skybird]

May i add that Navalny is the only challenger, for Putin.
Thats why he is not being considered. Putin will not pick amongst challengers, but followers.

[mapuc]

Could the perhaps be some unknown Politicians hiding behind the political curtain. A politician unknown to us...and who will be the one leading Russia after Putin ?

If my memory doesn't play tricks with me..Putin was also kind of unknown when Jeltsin was in charge.

Markus

[ikalugin]

May i add that Navalny is the only challenger, for Putin.


So the issue is that western media:

1) presents Navalny as a viable challenger when he is not, he has around 2-4 percent trust level (https://www.levada.ru/2020/07/29/odobrenie-organov-vlasti-i-doverie-politikam/), then there are name recognition problems, etc.

2) presents him as an honest politician. This is not the case, in addition to embezlement of donations for legal support of protestors (who he incited to protests in a way that lead to crack downs) he came from a background of writing smear pieces for money in the internal political game, he works with the patronage networks.

3) presents him as a politican the West could work this. This is not the case, because he is an ethno-nationalist (though this has been dialled back a bit in the public) authoritarian.


The (2) is the reason why he has been allowed to leave the country despite having the ban to do so issued by the court, normal COVID-19/SARS-2 related limitations on travel.
And this is not the first time either when he was given preferential treatment by the powers that be.


As to why he has been (allegedly) poisoned - this is simple, he has been investigating alleged corruption in the Siberian region and did so covertly.

[Catfish]

Ah, now he has been poisoned ? I have read this different before in russian media.

Yes, it cannot have been Putin because as russian protesters proclaimed "poison is the weapon of a woman, a coward and a eunuch!"
I guess you do not see sarcasm so easily, but believe me, this is.
What is true however is, that the whole transport and medical aid would not have happened without Putin's approval, for whatever reason he did that..

So you say Navalny is no challenge for Putin. Who would be a legal and approved (by Putin??) candidate for the next russian president? If we exclude Medwedew.

[Skybird]

I do not know Russian internal poltics, can only rread what the media writes. Defence minister Schoigu gets speculated about a lot, the governor of Kaliningrad Arachnov who grew up completely under and in Putin's system, or the mayor of Moscow. The Russian state is a state centering and focussing on Putin, he designed it to be like that, so any leave by Putin necessarily is a system change. Herein lies a big risk for instability.

And Russia is a nuclear power.

We do not want a failed transition attempt like under Yeltzin. The migration of Russian nuclear scientists to dubious new employers was breathtaking. Preventing this is and must be the top priority of the West, before anything else. I fear however that many politicians in the wEst have not understood this.

[Dmitry Markov]

My two cents more:

If Navalny was really an important figure in Russia - where are those thousands of his so called "followers"? Why we don't see them on our streets with demands of investigation (except couple of clowns (or idlers) with placards)? Abscense of those kind of public on our streets shows what place this guy really occupies in our hearts and minds :-)

[Catfish]

I have no idea how many "followers" Nadalny has, also i do not know whether he was the head of the 65,000 protesters in the march demonstration 2017, when a thousand or so were arrested. I am also not sure whether his nationalist leaning would be good for Russia, or if he just does that to amass more people against Putin or "the corruption".

I do not see any other independent candidate. Medvedvev? Lol. I just saw a video where Medvedvev and Putin were practicing in a gym, before having breakfast together.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/21/who-tried-to-kill-alexei-navalny-400063

[Skybird]

As I indicated before, Catfish, its not about independent, challenging candidates, but followers chosen by Putin. The Russian way does not obey Western standards, like it or or hate it - but it will not happen the Western way.

What we as Wetserners must prioritize is stability and control of the military and the nuclear sector, both brain power and existing weapons. And we are well advised in the West to support that outcome in Russia that maximises the chance that these factors are safe. Also we have a legitimate and vital interest in fighting back the massive Russian destabilizing interference in our political and social-communal proceedings. If we cannot even protect our own societies from Moscow'S destructive influx, how less are our options to influence their own society and state'S stability...?!

That all is not ideal, that is not idealistic, but that is how things are, and we do not have the power to enforce things being different. We are on the defense already. And America's Moscow-assisted self-destruction is not helpful either.

[Catfish]

As I indicated before, Catfish, its not about independent, challenging candidates, but followers chosen by Putin. The Russian way does not obey Western standards, like it or or hate it - but it will not happen the Western way.
You could have said that any dictatorship led by one man chooses (or tries to choose) its successor. Other standards have nothing to do with this basic principle.

I just brought that up because certain people keep saying that Russia would be a democracy, or as former chancellor Schroeder asserted "Putin is ein lupenreiner Demokrat." (Putin is a flawless democrat)
That is plain Bull.S.

[Jimbuna]

Vladimir Putin set out a clear path to Russian military action in Belarus for the first time on Thursday, announcing that he had agreed to assemble a “law enforcement reserve” at the request of the country’s embattled autocrat Alexander Lukashenko.

Such forces, used only if the situation went “out of control”, would be provided under the terms of a joint security treaty, Mr Putin said.

https://www.independent.co.uk/independentpremium/world/belarus-news-putin-lukashenko-russia-troops-minsk-a9692116.html

[Von Due]

Out of control for whom?

[Bilge_Rat]

Apparently Russian FSB agents have been arriving in Belarus in large numbers over the past week. Looks like any intervention will be disguised as a deployment of police forces. I think we can foresee that if Lukoshenko does survive, Russia will probably wind up with more control over Belarus.

[mapuc]

Vladimir Putin set out a clear path to Russian military action in Belarus for the first time on Thursday, announcing that he had agreed to assemble a “law enforcement reserve” at the request of the country’s embattled autocrat Alexander Lukashenko.

Such forces, used only if the situation went “out of control”, would be provided under the terms of a joint security treaty, Mr Putin said.

https://www.independent.co.uk/independentpremium/world/belarus-news-putin-lukashenko-russia-troops-minsk-a9692116.html

In the Swedish news it was said, that Putin never would accept a western friendly government in Belarus.

Markus

[Von Due]

In the Swedish news it was said, that Putin never would accept a western friendly government in Belarus.

Markus

Operation Storm-333 pt 2

[mapuc]

(I put it here-It's about Russian military)

I know they are sending a message to USA/NATO with this exercise.

“We are holding such massive drills there for the first time ever,” Yevmenov said in a statement released by the Russian Defense Ministry.

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/russian-navy-conducts-major-maneuvers-alaska-72676034?cid=social_fb_abcn&fbclid=IwAR0iJolbPRhvXt672z9SjlMGrp-ygqwFQoQ_eLfFx8KCVwMPYb7o3aihkiE

Markus

[Catfish]

Apparently Russian FSB agents have been arriving in Belarus in large numbers over the past week. Looks like any intervention will be disguised as a deployment of police forces. I think we can foresee that if Lukoshenko does survive, Russia will probably wind up with more control over Belarus.
Well one of those commandos seems to have failed:
Ukrainian intelligence lured suspected Russian mercenaries to Belarus, journalists report (https://meduza.io/en/feature/2020/08/18/ukrainian-intelligence-lured-suspected-russian-mercenaries-to-belarus-journalists-report
but it seems this was not)

But you are right it is the usual russian procedure already witnessed in Ukraine, maybe the russian maoeuvres near Alaska want to divert the US from what is going on with Russia and Belarus? :hmmm:
With the conditions in the US Russia has it exactly where it wants it. Maybe just trying out what is possible.. Putin has won his gambling before.

[mapuc]

To keep it short

Have read a lot of article in Swedish and some Danish.

Russia is having an exercise in the Baltic Ocean Shield 2020

Sweden has sent troops, tanks and airsupport to Gotland.
A Swedish officer have said to SVT(Swedish television)
It's a sharp situation

I have tried to interpret all this information

I decided to believe what a Danish expert said.

It's all about mark territory nothing else.

Russia would loose more than they would win by invading Gotland.

Markus

[Catfish]

[...] Russia is having an exercise in the Baltic Ocean Shield 2020
Sweden has sent troops, tanks and airsupport to Gotland. [...]
Russia would loose more than they would win by invading Gotland.
Markus
But Gotland is beautiful :)

Russia also has an exercise near Alaska, to "secure resources" (in international waters).

[mapuc]

But Gotland is beautiful :)

Russia also has an exercise near Alaska, to "secure resources" (in international waters).

I want to change some words from my last comment.

Russia would not loose much if they decide to invade Gotland.

EU-Sweden is a member. But from reading some of Skybirds comment regarding EU and other member like Greece-Greece Turkey crisis.
So the only thing Sweden can hope for is lots of moral support and nothing more.

NATO-Well here I'm uncertain-Gotland and the Danish island Bornholm is of very high military importance.

I can therefore not say how NATO would react.

But it's not going to happen.

Back to Russian domestic politics.

Markus

[ikalugin]

Ah, now he has been poisoned ? I have read this different before in russian media.

Yes, it cannot have been Putin because as russian protesters proclaimed "poison is the weapon of a woman, a coward and a eunuch!"
I guess you do not see sarcasm so easily, but believe me, this is.
What is true however is, that the whole transport and medical aid would not have happened without Putin's approval, for whatever reason he did that..

So you say Navalny is no challenge for Putin. Who would be a legal and approved (by Putin??) candidate for the next russian president? If we exclude Medwedew.


At the time I added the term (allegedly). Now it seems that there was some sort of phosphoorganic poison, but sadly those are all too common - from insecticides to WW2 to Cold War era to present day neurotoxins.


In terms of candidates this is hard to say, realistically we would know only very close to the elections, most likely it would be a person we would not expect.
Navalny apparently began working on shifting his immage to be more electable, but that probably wouldn't help him. Still, we would probably see some one build a campaign on Navalny's martydom narrative.

[ikalugin]

I have no idea how many "followers" Nadalny has, also i do not know whether he was the head of the 65,000 protesters in the march demonstration 2017, when a thousand or so were arrested. I am also not sure whether his nationalist leaning would be good for Russia, or if he just does that to amass more people against Putin or "the corruption".

I do not see any other independent candidate. Medvedvev? Lol. I just saw a video where Medvedvev and Putin were practicing in a gym, before having breakfast together.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/21/who-tried-to-kill-alexei-navalny-400063


The irony is that this was a short term move to generate money. Back in 2017 he misinformed his base and provoked them to protest at the wrong location etc. Then after the useful idiots got arrested he pocketed donations send to fund their legal representation.


Medvedev (like Navalny) is indeed a member of the same patronage networks.


Vladimir Putin set out a clear path to Russian military action in Belarus for the first time on Thursday, announcing that he had agreed to assemble a “law enforcement reserve” at the request of the country’s embattled autocrat Alexander Lukashenko.

Such forces, used only if the situation went “out of control”, would be provided under the terms of a joint security treaty, Mr Putin said.

https://www.independent.co.uk/independentpremium/world/belarus-news-putin-lukashenko-russia-troops-minsk-a9692116.html

This is not military action, this is potential police support. Military support (ie under CSTO) has been specifically denied, the same way it was denied to Kurgyzia a while ago. Unless Belorussia comes under a credible external military threat (and Lukashenko is trying to present the situation as such very hard) they are not getting military help via CSTO.


What did happen recently was a series of nuclear posturing/signalling moves, such as the strategic bomber exercise, first joint Iskander-12th GUMO exercise (the later handles nuclear weapons) and so on, the standard re-assurance of allies stuff.


Well one of those commandos seems to have failed:
Ukrainian intelligence lured suspected Russian mercenaries to Belarus, journalists report (https://meduza.io/en/feature/2020/08/18/ukrainian-intelligence-lured-suspected-russian-mercenaries-to-belarus-journalists-report<br />but it seems this was not)

But you are right it is the usual russian procedure already witnessed in Ukraine, maybe the russian maoeuvres near Alaska want to divert the US from what is going on with Russia and Belarus? :hmmm:
With the conditions in the US Russia has it exactly where it wants it. Maybe just trying out what is possible.. Putin has won his gambling before.

The difference between Belorussia and Ukraine is that there is no real anti-Russian drive so far in the mainstream opposition. Using hard military force would change this, hence why in Belorussia we are likely to act as a mediator of power transition, like we did in Armenia (another Russian CSTO ally).

[Skybird]

So it is Novichok.



Difficult to track down the attacker then, Novichok is so wide-spread that it is kept in practically every household around the world.:doh:


Ah - wait...:hmmm:

[Jimbuna]

So it is Novichok.



Difficult to track down the attacker then, Novichok is so wide-spread that it is kept in practically every household around the world.:doh:


Ah - wait...:hmmm:

I never knew sarcasm was one of your skills :hmmm:

:03:

https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showpost.php?p=2693344&postcount=145

[Catfish]

So it is Novichok. [...] :hmmm:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-politics-navalny-germany/germany-says-putin-critic-navalny-was-poisoned-with-novichok-idUSKBN25T272

The russian government condemns this attack in the strongest terms and will find the one(s) responsible for this.
Next: Some russian doctors fear for their lives.

[Skybird]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novichok_agent

"Developed by the Soviet Union (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_Union) and Russia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia) between 1971 and 1993."


And now I am not sarcastic. But laconic.

[Jimbuna]

If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck.

[Skybird]

Der Tagesspiegel:

"
The Russian government critic Alexej Navalny has been poisoned with the chemical nerve agent Novitschok according to studies by a special laboratory. The federal government announced on Wednesday that the laboratory tests provided “unequivocal evidence”.

Novichok is a group of highly effective fourth-generation neurotoxins and warfare agents that were developed in the Soviet Union from the 1970s and further researched in Russia until at least the 1990s. Some of these are warfare agents whose existence was unknown to the public until October 1991. In a broader sense, numerous other highly toxic variants, also developed in Russia, are referred to as the "Novitschok" type. What they have in common is that they inhibit acetylcholinesterase.

Cholinesterase is an enzyme that the body needs to process a very important substance: acetylcholine. It is primarily necessary for the transmission of signals from nerve cells to other nerve cells, but also to muscle cells, and is to a certain extent "reactivated" by the cholinesterase after each transmitted stimulus.

If the enzyme is prevented from doing this because it is blocked by inhibitors (cholinesterase inhibitors), the transmission of stimuli no longer works - the muscles cramp, which can lead to death if the respiratory or heart muscles are affected.

The inhibition of the enzymes can be demonstrated comparatively easily by testing the activity of the cholinesterase enzymes, preferably those in the blood plasma. If they no longer or hardly work, they must have been inhibited.

The substances that can inhibit cholinesterases include "the most important chemical warfare agents - nerve gases such as sarin, VX, soman, taboo, cyclosarin - but also certain pesticides - E605, chlorpyrifos," said Thomas Hartung, toxicologist at the American Johns Hopkins University.

Victims' first symptoms are usually smaller pupils, increased salivation and profuse sweating, spasms, cramps, paralysis, breathing problems and finally heart failure - depending on how the poison gets into the body. “The outlook for treatment depends on how much of which substance was administered and how quickly the correct therapy was initiated,” says Hartung.

Few details are known about Novichok. Presumably it consists of two components which are inherently non-toxic and only develop their deadly danger when mixed. The relic from the Cold War is said to be five to ten times more potent than the chemical warfare agent VX. With this, the half-brother of the North Korean ruler Kim Jong Un was murdered in Malaysia in February 2017. Novitschok, which is often used in the form of an extremely fine powder, enters the body through the skin or the respiratory tract.

A neurotoxin from the Novichok group was also used in the poisoning of former Russian double spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter Julia in Salisbury, UK in 2018. The two only barely survived. "I said at the time that the Russians could have left a business card at the crime scene because the substances can be so clearly assigned," said Hartung.
"

[mapuc]

It has now been proven Alexej Navalny has been poison.

What can our leader in the west really do ?

As I see it......not much

Impose embargo-which doesn't have much affect on Russian economy
(maybe it would due to world wide economy crisis)
Break diplomatically with Russia.

I think some of you will tell a lot more and what tools EU and NATO have.
(NO not war)

Markus

[Bilge_Rat]

It has now been proven Alexej Navalny has been poison.

What can our leader in the west really do ?

As I see it......not much

Impose embargo-which doesn't have much affect on Russian economy
(maybe it would due to world wide economy crisis)
Break diplomatically with Russia.

I think some of you will tell a lot more and what tools EU and NATO have.
(NO not war)

Markus

easy, Merkel could just cancel the Nord Stream 2 pipeline to punish Russia. :03:

[Skybird]

... and reward Trump'S Holterdipolter policy and increasing energy dependency from overpriced American liquid gas deliveries and paying too much for these?? No, thanks, the one option is so unlikeable like the other.

Also, like it or not, Russia is needed in many things and regards. Syria. Libya. Even on Erdoghan he has huge influence, since Turkey cannot ignore Russia.

The simple unwelcomed fact is that the West has arranged itself for too long with Russia and now sits in a trap, cannot move out, cannot stay put.

Well. That is what Realpolitik is about. To differ between what can be done in reality and what should be done in an ideal world. Lets face it, Russia is our continental land neighbour. The US is not.

Merkel certainly once again now gets the bill for a policy of 15 years syytematcally incraiosng Germany'S dependencies and vunerabilities for short-sighted oppotunism and lack of realistic longterm strategy. Germany has more important thigns to do. Savign the pkanet all by itself, for exmaple. The Energiewende. And making the world follow our moral abolutism. :haha:

A dilemma for Germany and the EU. Home-made.

[Catfish]

[...] I think some of you will tell a lot more and what tools EU and NATO have. (NO not war) Markus
Danes summon Russian envoy over airspace violation: https://apnews.com/d1548c0db19992d20e99bab06dba9f0e

Seems Putin does not care much :)
He wants a multipolar world without international consent towards a united world, he got it. He wants a cold war again, he got it. He wants confusion and doubts about democracy and life in the US, he got it. Russian tsar shtronk!
Does he want war? Not yet. But peace is not on his agenda.

US republicans and Trump at the helm should normally mean competition and a hard hand towards Russia, but no! The US is weak as never before, ignoring its allies, retreating everywhere, basically betraying what has been done and held up for decades.
Putin's support against the democrats (which are not politically "left" at all, in the US) means that he sees the USA weaker that way, and he has been proven right. Certainly with a bit of internet and troll help (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/29/technology/russia-troll-farm-election.html), but it works. People in the west are so unbelievably dumb. And Putin uses this to its full potential.

[mapuc]

Heard something interesting in the news which I have been thinking of too.

This poison isn't exactly a substans you can buy in every shop or on every corner. It's controlled by the government and only trusted employees have access to it.

Which mean either is Putin behind it or he and the government does not have fully control over their intelligence service like FSB.

Markus

[Skybird]

Putin wants Trump, becasue Trump takes an efficient, focussed America out of world affairs. Its destracted and so busy withg it self that it is no obstacle to Russian powerplay.

Xi wants Biden, toi get rid of those needless trade wars that hinders the soft conquest of the world via the Silk Road project. Trump is seeking too much confrontation at all costs, because that is his elixier of political survival to score with his crowds. He delivers the plebs panem at circensis, and the ylove him for that, even if it means not much. Biuden would noit confront China as tough anymore, but wpould do the usual diplomatio bubble and appeasement most likey.

So China's and Russia's interests in the US election are quite different.

And the EU? Is a leaf on thew water, moving up and down and back and forth according to how the wind from Russia blows, the tidings from china flows, the dysfunctional weather control system from America manipulates.

It will either learn in this chaos to grow stronger, or it will fall. Just continuing like it had in the past 30 years - that is no option expect for rendering itself impotent and menaingless.

The EU defends way too long borders, I mean that ideologically, not geographically. It claims to be too much. It will need to signficiantly cut back its claims for what it wants to be, and focus on financial and military strength and rebuildign industrial (=IT-related and nuclear power related) core competences. All that cultural, idealistic, socialist mumbo-jumbo - forget it, its a millstone around its neck. The world of the 21st century is not less an arena as it was before. Thick wallets, hard fists, strong muscles and mental shrewdness are what counts. Wolves and sheep. Just wolves and sheep. And the overboarding wellfare system - simply is not sustainable.

All in all I see the world massively moving not towards but away from democratic societies, and moving towards growing totalitarianism and collectivism. And nowhere faster than in Europe and America. The longterm consequences and financial costs of Corona have ultimnately shoiwn the debt crisisa to be unsolvable, and the structural changes it means for the money system will see for that. Becasue onyl with totalitarian govenrment powers the collapsing money system can be still enforced without the masses going into open civil war. The intolerance and madness in Americas is obvious. And China and Russia must not be convinced of the charms of totalitarianism.

[ikalugin]

So it is Novichok.



Difficult to track down the attacker then, Novichok is so wide-spread that it is kept in practically every household around the world.:doh:


Ah - wait...:hmmm:

Not only did some stocks go "missing" in 1990s (with some notable assasinations following, such as the banker getting poisoned via his phone) the formula and the means to manufacture it are known, including via ex-Soviet defectors.

In fact because one of the goals of Novichok series was ease of manufacture it is easier to make than VX, which was manufactured in small quantities by a certain Japanese death cult from what I recall.


p.s. also, yes, it was obvious more or less straight away that the poison narrative would blosson into the Novichok one, regardless of what actually happened to Navalny.

[skidman]

Seems Putin does not care much :)
He wants a multipolar world without international consent towards a united world, he got it. He wants a cold war again, he got it. He wants confusion and doubts about democracy and life in the US, he got it. Russian tsar shtronk!
Does he want war? Not yet. But peace is not on his agenda.


Agreed. A intelligence man playing by Machiavellian rules. America and Europe tongue-tied, weak and powerless. Had the West not broken the promise to not expand NATO eastwards we could stand united against China. Ah well...

[Skybird]

One has taken note of with what naturalness the Russian govenrment and some Duma dude used Trump rhetorics (or does Trump use Russian rhetoric patterns?) and already lay doubt on the Germans. It was with greatest naturalness implied that while Nawalny showed no signs of poisoning (so the zussian narration) when being transported out of Russia, it must have been the Germans themsleves who poiusoned him with Novichok afterwards.


No matter what you throw at these sort of agitators - they always u-turn it and throw it back and leave it to that, posing as innocent victims themselves.


The Germans meanwhile have "demanded" that Russia fully cooperates and does all possible to secure transparency and a solving of this case. They demanded it with much detmerination. And Merkel said it herself, that must impress!


Russia said it will do right that. :D



Like they did after their assassintion of a Chechnian in Berlin Tiergarten, which also caused the Germans to be very determined. And Russia was very impressed. :D

[Mr Quatro]

"You reap what you sow" is one of the oldest laws known to mankind :yep:

It's just a matter of time till the truth is out into the open :yep:

[Catfish]

Once more
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/29/technology/russia-troll-farm-election.html

Look especially at the Trump/white supremacy/Texas independence pictures :D. Reading those hate comments on some sites i am now sure where they come from.

Re Mr Quatro - truth: If there is a theme or event which shows inconvenient truths regarding Russia, the troll farms now generate 30+ spins of this message on the 'net, some may even be true if a bit "shifted", most are lies and even obvious, but the result is a flood of inherent desinformation; people confronted with a hundred 'truths' cannot decide what to believe anymore or just give up research because of being bored. Trump also rides this wave of desinformation, he has a good mentor.

This was 4+ years ago, so they are developing and using different strategies by now. It is not an open war, but war it is.

[Dmitry Markov]

I must admit that so called "Novichok" is pretty ineffective ((( All its supposed victims have survived (except one misfortunate woman in UK ). If there's a hand of our authorities behind these events than I must also admit that supposed "agents" have lack of qualification. More than this - why the hell they agreed to transfer this clown to Germany ? To deal with all this bsht with "irrefutable proof from unbiased Western authorities" and risking North Stream even more ? Risking to loose support of North Stream from Merkel against US gegemony we've had all these last months? I think they've chosen pretty good moment to get rid of clown... Awful incompetence ((.. I think even if this guy couldn't just pass quietly due to poor health - better was to heal him quietly somwhere in Omsk or Novosibirsk and then to show him healthy to cameras - so there would be less ground for Western media to pour all this rain of sh-t on our heads (Even when he would be declaring - "They've poisoned me!" - he would look even more pathetic ). I mean - we hardly can stop US from trying to end North Stream with all their dirty ways, but why help them ruining this extremely important project ? Awful incompetence ((

[Catfish]

Well, petrol is not instantly deadly either, but it serves ok to make people sick enough to quit (see Yushchenko).
Anna Politkovskaya, another outspoken critic of Putin.. she survived the attempt to kill her with poison, but was shot to death in her Moscow apartment building elevator two years later.
Polonium-210 is more suited to kill, if slowly (Litvinenko).
Laughing gas (nitrous oxide) can also be used to kill (Stanislav Bogdanovich und Alexandra Vernigora).

Let's say poison has long been a weapon of the Russian security services.

A list of poisoned Kremlin critics:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/20/alexei-navalny-russia-long-history-of-poisoned-kremlin-critics
https://abcnews.go.com/International/navalny-long-history-russian-poisonings/story?id=72579648
https://www.newsweek.com/alexei-navalnys-suspected-poisoning-just-latest-when-it-comes-russian-history-1526468
Of course there may be some retaliation now and then, done by others.

So it looks like a human life still does not count much in Russia?

Navalny was already too prominent to just kill him?

Maybe some of this poisoning stuff is more of a warning that any critic, traitor or defector is not safe even abroad? ("We let you go but if you do not keep your mouth shut..")
Also serves as a warning against other possibloe critics, seems the message has been delivered once more here.

Why did they hold back Navalny (they let the plane headed for Germany land in Moscow), before letting him go again?

Maybe the doctors were tasked to make sure that no residue of said poison could be found, and when they thought so they let him go?
(I take it Putin will ask them some questions now ?)

All this desinformation to confuse causes a lot of work.. mabe it is so effective that even Russia does not understand it any more?


So many questions, and so many "variations of answers" :)

[Skybird]

Novichok ineffective? thats spin-doctoring in itself. It may be about application and dosis, but chemically Novichok, as a nerve agent, is described in literature as 5-10 times more effective than VX.

And who said that detah always was the penultimate goal of the operation? A crippled, feared victim teaches more lessons to the opponent than a simple fast death. Why else had they let Navalny out then? Germany had no pressure tools against Russia to enforce handing the man over.

And I wonder whetehr Germany really was so well advised to volunteer for that job, considering our intrerest in relations with Russia. The assassination by Russian agents in the Berlin Tiergarten over one year ago already showed the German helplessness. And now they make Navalny their case, too?

That is moral megalomania, and it will lead the germans nowhere. Like with the Tiergarten assassination.

[Dmitry Markov]

Seems you don't get me well - ok, I'll try to put it in another words - how the situation looks from my sofa:

We are in great need to finish the North Stream successfully - it's the most important project for the whole country as well as Force of Syberia. US and it's satellites in EU is doing it's best not to let us build last kilometers. They've already made the work of previous contractor impossible due to sanctions. With most hardest efforts Gazprom have found solutions to dodge this strike: it took almost a year to find legal solutions, to negotiate with Denmark and Germany, to find new contractor, to find new ships. And now almost everything is ready, US develops new sanctions one after another, but Germany and Merkel personally helps to withstand all that shots from US, but still perspectives for this all-important project are unsteady. And of course it's THE ONLY RIGHT moment to start another roughhouse around insignificant (in our real life, not in Western media) 3-rd rate media clown.
Quite a strange dichotomy: according to Western media our President is evil genius who has lesser resourses but always overplays because he is a) evil and b) because he is smart ( and maybe genius even). And now this evil genius makes absolutely stupid move in a situation when the stakes are very high and balance is very delicate....

[Onkel Neal]

Hey, I just read the German govt accused the Russian dictator of using a nerve agent to poison another of his opponents.

[vienna]

I do believe, in Russia, that's known as Thursday...




<O>

[Skybird]

Last night I had an insane idea.

Navalny is not the first critic who falls victim to an assassination attempt in Russia. And this deed was committed not in Germany, but on Russian soil. It was Merkel's government then fighting hard for getting Navalny to Germany.

A year ago or so, another intimate enemy of the Russians was assassinated by Russian agents in the Berlin Tiergarten. There was some diplomatic rush and push, and that was it. It was an attack carried out inside Germany, in a park in the German capital.

The reactions to me do not really compare. Why was it so urgent for the Germans to get Navalny to Germany, right while it must have been known to them that this would mean to seat themselves in a most umcomfortable position between "punish the Russians!" and "continue Nord Stream 2!" ?

What if Merkel has done another of her complete and total U-turns she is famous for by now (after all she is mercielssly opporutnsitzic, that is the only principle she consistently has followed in her career) - and decided to use the case of Navalny as an excuse to prepare the shutting down of the Nord Stream 2 project, finally giving in to America's bullying? If so, she would need an excuse, no matter how fabricated, to save her face. It falls into the patterns of rhetoric cheats and tricks that just days ago she voiced her adament determination to see Nord Stream 2 completed - and then bringing Navalny into the formula, so that she could say afterwards: "I was fully determined to get Nord Stream 2 done and not reward Trump - but you see, the circumstances with the Russians changed due to them trying to kill another of their critics, he is being treated in germany and that puts us into a special responsibility, and so it was our moral esponsibility and we had no other choice but to cancel it: Russia forced us. Its a loss for us, but we sacrifice evertyhing to fulfill our moral obligation to punish the Russians." - While in reality, if this narration shows to become true, it may just be about appeasing the Americans.

It really stuns me how sharp the reaction over an assassination attempt in Russia is now, and how imo way too mild the reaction was back on that public murdering in Berlin back then. It just does not calculate smooth. I dont get it.

[Skybird]

FOCUS online:


The words Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU) chose on Wednesday were unusually harsh. Merkel is rarely clear about what she believes it is about: an “attempted poisoning” of one of Russia's leading oppositionists: “He should be silenced.” Merkel speaks of “serious questions” that Moscow “has to answer”. The Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny was poisoned with a chemical nerve agent.

Now the facts are on the table - and the Navalny case is becoming an endurance test for German-Russian relations. Merkel holds out the prospect of a reaction - together with the EU and NATO. What this reaction should look like remains to be seen.

As soon as details about the Navalny case became known, the pipeline debate broke out in Germany. In the opposition in particular, voices are increasing to break off Nord Stream 2 "The apparent attempted murder by the mafia-like structures of the Kremlin can no longer just worry us, it must have real consequences," said Green Party leader Katrin Göring-Eckardt. For FDP leader Christian Lindner it is clear: "A regime that organizes poisonous murders is not a counterpart for large cooperation projects, not even for pipeline projects."

The head of the Munich Security Conference, Wolfgang Ischinger, said on the Bayern 2 station that the whole spectrum of possible measures must now be on the table. This also included “economic projects”. Nord Stream 2, however, is “a difficult point” - “because if we don't finish this pipeline we would of course shoot ourselves in the knee, so to speak”. Merkel herself had emphasized on Tuesday that she wanted to complete the project.

But the pressure on Merkel is now increasing. It had enforced Nord Stream 2 against the will of numerous European partners - and always defended it against the USA. US President Donald Trump is a thorn in the side of the pipeline. Washington imposed sanctions in late 2019 to prevent completion of the pipeline. In mid-July, the US government threatened further sanctions.

The US argue that Germany and Europe would become energy-dependent on Moscow. Germany would “throw billions” into Putin, criticized Trump recently. Critics accuse the USA of only wanting to export its own liquefied gas at the highest possible prices.

Merkel is therefore in a dilemma. It needs a good relationship with its NATO partner USA, but it is also dependent on Putin when it comes to the future of the Middle East, for example. Without Moscow, little can be achieved here, and his influence on Turkish President Erdogan is also important for Europe.

In addition: Germany is dependent on Russian natural gas. The parallel phasing out of nuclear power and coal will even increase the demand for natural gas. The completed pipeline is to ensure the gas supply to Germany and the European Union (EU) over a distance of 1230 kilometers. The capacity of the line is 55 billion cubic meters per year. That corresponds to the loads of 600 to 700 liquid gas tankers. According to the operating company Nord Stream 2 AG, this gas is necessary to close the EU's increasingly large import gap.

Of course there is also a lot of money involved. Former Chancellor Gerhard Schröder (SPD) - who chairs the Supervisory Board at Nord Stream AG - therefore issued an emphatic warning at a hearing in front of the Bundestag Committee on Economic Affairs and Energy in July. According to Schröder, investments of twelve billion euros would have to be written off if the project should still fail.

Both Russian and German companies would then have to bear these losses. Five European groups - Wintershall, Uniper, OMV, Engie and Royal Dutch Shell - each contributed 950 million euros. The rest was financed by the Russian energy giant Gazprom, which is also the 100 percent owner of Nord Stream 2 AG.

An end to the pipeline would also have consequences for the German economy and consumers. According to Schröder, who of course speaks in the interests of the companies involved, without the pipeline there would be additional costs of five billion euros a year for the procurement of gas. And Germany has to do it one way or another: imports make up over 90 percent of German natural gas consumption.

In addition, deliveries from Russia are likely to increase one way or another. This was pointed out by the economist André Wolf from the Hamburg World Economic Institute (HWWI) at the Schröder hearing. Given the dwindling resources in the North Sea, Russia's share of deliveries will increase - even without Nord Stream 2.

In case of doubt, German companies and households will continue to use Russian gas - only that it is more expensive.
Legal consequences could also be added to the economic consequences. The smeared companies should not want to sit on the losses - and make recourse claims against the federal government. This means that it cannot be ruled out that a failure of the project over the last few kilometers would ultimately even affect the German taxpayer.


https://www.focus.de/politik/ausland/fall-nawalny-projekt-mit-putin-druck-auf-merkel-steigt-doch-nord-stream-ausstieg-ist-fast-unmoeglich_id_12390875.html

[Dmitry Markov]

Skybird - interesting point and it comes more interesting together with my previous post - if Merkel really decided to make U-turn - then why Putin plays along with her by allowing transfer of Navalny to Germany ? This swindler has more than once been probationary convicted and has always been allowed to go abroad while in according to Russian law you are banned from leaving the state territory if you have unpaid fines or debts circa 116 Euro ( in today's exchange rates) not to say about criminal record with an active conviction... I cannot understand - what possible "humanitarian" considerations have driven our authorities as out of mind as to let the West produce any "unbiased" media they want without being able to fend off objectively ?

[Skybird]

Its not as if Russia is completely desinterested in the pipeline. Having no competitive industrial production economy and depending heavily on the export of ressources, the fall of ressource prices early this year and last winter and that year as well, and the cost pressure this meant for Gazprom puts Putin under certain success pressure as well. Pissing the Germans by refusing to hand over Navalny maybe was a risk in his eyes to threaten relations with the Germans who usually are Russia' closest advocate in the Western world.

The same cost pressure pushes the Americans, their fracking industry as well got seriously hit by the low in ressource prices earlier, and now their frakcing industry is in seriuous financial troubles, thats why they want tzo sele their overpriced gas in Europe, no mamtter what pressure it needs. In the end the whole conflict about the pipeline is a powerplay between Russia and America, and over oney, becasue the strtageic interest of the uS in Europe is quickly declining since years (thats why Trump cares so little to piss Europe all the time). Germany was just so stupid to allow becoming the punching ball in their match - amongst others by eliminating coal and nuclear power simultaneously in Germany and so raising the demand for gas.

[Skybird]

https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/did-putin-order-russia-s-latest-poison-attack-what-navalny-ncna1239143



Russian President Vladimir Putin is often carelessly portrayed as the singular force behind all violent actions carried out by Russia's state organs and its proxies. This picture is overly simplistic, as the Russian state — just as in America — is not monolithic, encompassing a number of competing actors pushing and pulling for influence.
(...)
After news of Navalny's poisoning broke, speculation as to whodunit circulated like a morbid game of Clue — was it Kadyrov, as payback for an investigation from years ago, or Prigozhin, who has long waged a campaign to destroy Navalny's Anti-Corruption Foundation (https://www.occrp.org/en/daily/11006-navalny-s-fbk-must-pay-1-4m-to-putin-s-chef)? Now that the poison has been revealed, the only mystery is exactly which Russian state security organ carried out the plot — and why now.
Pieces like this are helpful to remind me of that my thinking about how Russia ticks maybe is too linear and non-dynamical - ironicaly born from the desire to shed light on it rationally. Maybe my approach is wrong, and should try to see it more "chaotic".

[mapuc]

Reading your comments, reading and hearing the news here..lead me to this:

Is Putin in full charge ? Is everyone under him 100 % loyal to him. ?

Markus

[Skybird]

^ Its a BIG machine. Can anyone even be in full command and awareness of what is going on any moment?

I assume not even Stalin was fully aware all the time and always in full control - and compared to him Putin still is relatively tame in chosen methods and brutality.

[Dmitry Markov]

Gents, what are we talking about? What Stalin? What Putin? In any case only working deduction method is "cui prodest". The only side who gains proftit from this situation is US (plus some EU officials). The sides that bear maximum costs are Russia and Germany. Putin isn't insane to shoot our own leg. This is an under-table game of US against North Stream. File closed.

However I cannot fully reject the possibility of some kind of treason inside our officialdom as Skybird sais - but that's again works only in favor of US, not in interests of Russia and our people...

[Skybird]

You want to imply that Navalny was ppoisoned by the US to give Putin a bad name (as if he does not already have that) and to bring Germany to giving up Nord Stream 2?

I thought of that already. But that I did not voice it, I think tells clear enough what I think of that scenario currently: unlikely.

Russia'S top has a long and established record of poisoning its opponents with "signature poisons" and then deny any responsibililty, spread doubt, deflect. Possible maybe that this time somebody in command overestmated the chances to get away with it like the many times before: some diplomatic I-go-you-go, and thats it. And after the many weak replies from Europeans in the past, I can even understand that.

[Skybird]

German investigators say that a bottle belonging to Navalny showed signs of the poison, but did nto contain it originally. the bottle was collected by relatives of Navalny and brought to Germany together with Navalny. This means that Navalny already was poisoned when he drank from that bottle. Thus he was not poisoned afterwards and outside Russia, in Germany, but in Russia for sure.


Russian official try to rasie doubts on that from beginning on, implying that the germans had poisoned him once Navalny was in Germany. What Russian bull####.

[Dmitry Markov]

Ha ha ha :-) Navalny relatives brought some bottle into Germany and Germany tells it contains poison :haha: That's what I call an indisputable proof )) Confirmed by truly unbiased source... They have an official declaration that they've brought this bottle from Russia? Or they can somehow indisputably prove how exactly they've managed to bring this bottle to Germany after all investigative actions from SK in Russia ( or didn't bought it in German territory ;-) )? Very weak :O: That is again a word against a word. Look cui prodest - the only side that gains from that is US, not Russia and not Germany. Gazprom, Putin and whole our people won't gain nothing from stopping the North Stream. To be honest I personally care for North Stream much more than state of Navalny's health ( hope he gets well, of course) or who and why could wish him to not be well. North Stream means our quality of life - food, water, education, medicine etc, Navalny doesn't mean nothing - since he cannot provide neither education, nor food, medicine, nor water, nor heating.

[Skybird]

Obviously your job is to cleanwash the Russian top, the by far main suspect, no matter what, and in best Trump fashion. Or Putin fashion. Or whomever showed up first with this "style".

And the bottle did not contain the poison. It showed traces of poison, but it was ruled out that it contained the poison that struck Navalny. When he drank from that bottle, he already was poisoned. And that is nerve agent you cannot buy just in a pharmacy.

Live with it, almost everybody is convinced that your state'S political leadership is behind this attack, like behind so many others conducted in this way, too. These endless Russian deflections just do not catch on. Althoigh they are tiresome and repetitive, what probably is their main purpose.

[Dmitry Markov]

Skybird, my job is to sell enough digital signage equipment to fulfill the KPI for this quarter :-) Not to cleanwash anybody - that's another department's job.
What exactly was/is in the bottle doesn't matter - what does matter is the proof of the fact of border crossing of this bottle which could be registered by both German and Russian sides - only when the fact of border crossing is registered by both sides it could be possible to talk about the said bottle as of material evidence. Until then it's just another media-plays when either side can declare anything and everyone stays with what they are initially persuaded in. Neither Russia can prove the bottle is bought on German territory and Navalny's relatives or US agents, or German police smeared it with Novichok, nor Navalny's relatives can prove that bottle was taken from Russia. Standoff :-)

[Skybird]

Oh, official Russian authority papers. That impresses! If they say it was so, then it must have been so. :har: Even more since they have not and never had anything to hide...

[Skybird]

Der Tagesspiegel:

In the case of the poisoned Russian Kremlin critic Alexej Navalny, the Russian judiciary has requested legal assistance from the German authorities. This was sent to the Berlin State Justice Administration on Friday, as announced on Twitter. The responsibility of Berlin results from the fact that Navalny is being treated in a Berlin hospital.

A German phrase: cheek wins!

[Skybird]

from Die Welt:

Empty Threats


"
George F. Kennan, the father of containment policy vis-à-vis the Soviet Union, warned the West decades ago that foreign policy must not be “the grimacing of public opinion” - especially not with regard to Russia. Moscow has a feeling for empty threats, empty phrases and the verbalism of hastiness.

The Kremlin knows how to expose the sounding emptiness as such and to counter it with well thought-out tactics. The West is often not up to it. Europeans have forgotten how to think strategically. And the Americans? Well, they don't think at all at the moment - or only think of themselves.

After the Chancellor took Russia into court more harshly than she ever did before, one could have expected that a policy of small steps would now be followed by cleverly devised penalties. However: So far, the decision was made to cut the face in the mirror of public opinion. NATO called its foreign ministers together. Her general secretary threatened grandmotherly “This will have consequences”, but no one is wondering whether the Western military pact is the right body.

What should NATO do? Threaten with war? Suspend the already asleep NATO-Russia Council? Transfer troops to the Baltic states? Those who show their teeth but cannot bite should never forget that there is a gap behind them. NATO even revealed this at the end of its session when it sternly stated that Russia had to answer serious questions. Vladimir Putin will shiver with fear.

The art of crisis diplomacy is based on always viewing threats as potential possibilities and leaving the enemy in the dark as to the extent of what is threatening him. If you leave out the big hammer, NATO has absolutely no way of making this kind of threat. So the conflict must be carried out exclusively in the field of politics.

The EU is written on it. As an economic power, it has the appropriate tools. Can she talk to Putin? A person who is used to commanding finds it difficult to learn how to negotiate, because negotiating means recognizing your limited power. So it is only possible with solid warnings. Should Russia block itself, it must expect the end of Nord Stream 2. But it is hard to believe that the federal government will agree to it. In contrast to her Sunday speeches about Europe, she is as selfish on this issue with European partners as Trump is with his allies. So all that remains is cutting the face.
"
https://www.welt.de/debatte/kommentare/article215062630/Fall-Nawalny-Europa-hat-fuer-Putin-nur-leere-Drohungen.html

[Catfish]

Germany will threaten Russia with a forever debate. Be afraid, be very afraid. :D

[mapuc]

I have so to say retired and this is because:

1. Was he(keep on forgetting his name) poisoned or not
2. Was it this nasty military chemical stuff or not ?
3. Was it Putin who gave the order or not ?

Since I can't get a clean answer on most of these I stay neutral.

Markus

[Skybird]

I have so to say retired and this is because:

1. Was he(keep on forgetting his name) poisoned or not
2. Was it this nasty military chemical stuff or not ?
3. Was it Putin who gave the order or not ?

Since I can't get a clean answer on most of these I stay neutral.

Markus
1. Nawalny. Yes.
2. Novichok. Yes.
3. The Russian state at top level. If Putin did not comamnd it, it certainly has nevertheless not been done against his will or without him knowing it.

How many poison attacks on critics and opposition leaders there have been in the past 15 years? I listed some of them some pages earlier. Quite some. Not even counting the extensive Russian cyber attack on the German Bundestag and the govenrment some years ago which led to a compöete shut down and repacement of the computer infratructure, and the murdering in Berlin Tiergarten Park last year.

Do not be "neutral". You become guilty yourself is staying neutral on this. You react exactly as the Russians calculate people like your to react: reasonable and thus: neutral. Because they do not admit it, don't hand over evidence, don't prove themselves beign guilty. Accuse the other of what they are being accused of. Total deflection. Their tactic is: strike, and then raise doubts, deflect, deny, so that people like you stay "neutral", and in doubt, becaysue you want to be "reaosnable". They hold you by your nose and lead you around in circles!

About the pipeline Nord Stream 2, there cna be no doubt that due to Germany deletign nculear energy and coal energy simulkatenbously, gas and energy demand will raise in the coming years, and all across Europe and the world, btw, not just in Germany. There will be rising gas import from Ruzssia anyway, Nord Strema 2 beign sue dor not. There are revialing pipelinbe projects, and each is suppported by other natiosnw ith toher economic itnerests. Turkey. Israel , Cyprus. Greece. Italy. Ukraine. Poland. All want the pipeline to be theirs so that they cna have a grab on it, can milk coins from it, and can threaten the eU in n egotiations with shrotages if they do nto get what they want. Nord Stream 2 is algical reaciton to that, the German reaosnign behind it is fully rational: bypassing uncertain candidates like the Ukraine, Poland, Turkey, and have a transit for gas directly from Russia to the distribution network starting in a German port, no in-between intermediates who raise the costs, or could potentially blackmail the eU if they do not get more moenya form the eU. More debt collectivization. More of whatever theywant. And the US want a.) to sell their own overpriced and inferior-quality gas, want b.) no rivalry and at best a so strong stand on the European energy market that they could blackmail the EU, and they want c.) to cut another source of income for Russia be spoiling a business deal for them. Mind you, the US is sanctionizing Russia already now.


I never lived in the illusion that Russia is Germany'S friend or that Germany is having a special relation to Russia. I oinly said, becaue it is a fact, that Russia has always hoinorued economic and trade treaties with us, even at the height of the cold war. It did so because it was a chance for them to increase tensions between Germany and the US that way. Beside this, Russia is attacking us on multiple secret and not so secret fronts day in, day out. So, the arrangement between us and them is such that the net benefits currently still outweighs the disadvantages. States have no friends. States have interests.



Unfortunately, the US does like the Russians as well. And maybe they are even more effective in attacking us and spying on us than the Russians. Economically they are in a better psoition to do so, since they can claim the whole German IT infrastrtxcure thewir playgorund - they build and created it, all software beign use don it, is theirs - they created that as well. The US is in the comfortable seat of beign able to act in the same way löikme they accuse Huawei it would act if only one lets them.



There are reasons why I do not prefer any of the three - Russia, China or the US - to the two others anymore. They are all the same.

[Jimbuna]

I have so to say retired and this is because:

1. Was he(keep on forgetting his name) poisoned or not
2. Was it this nasty military chemical stuff or not ?
3. Was it Putin who gave the order or not ?

Since I can't get a clean answer on most of these I stay neutral.

Markus

As I previously stated in #139

"If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck."

[Onkel Neal]

Can't get better proof than this from Putin's murder squad itself. (https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/21/europe/russia-navalny-poisoning-underpants-ward/index.html)

https://cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/201220163951-peskov-putin-presser-super-169.jpg

[Catfish]

Good there is evidence now, but did anyone really have a doubt? :03:

Two days ago:
"Putin said recent reports that Russian state security agents had poisoned Navalny were part of a US intelligence plot to discredit him."

"Putin: If Russia poisoned Navalny he'd be dead"
https://www.dw.com/en/putin-if-russia-poisoned-navalny-hed-be-dead/a-55975433

[ikalugin]

The *evidence* is of, ehem, varying quality.


https://tarkhil.medium.com/два-слова-о-двух-отравлениях-d0fb5db37473
A good longread (in Russian) on the general phosphoorganic poison topic.


That said - the recent events do rise valid questions about things such as illegal personal data markets, so maybe some good would come out of them.

[Mr Quatro]

The *evidence* is of, ehem, varying quality.


https://tarkhil.medium.com/два-слова-о-двух-отравлениях-d0fb5db37473
A good longread (in Russian) on the general phosphoorganic poison topic.


That said - the recent events do rise valid questions about things such as illegal personal data markets, so maybe some good would come out of them.

The bait worked Neal :up:

Keep up the good work :D

[ikalugin]

Do you mean to say that it was an intentional trawling attempt?


I am trying to engage here, and on other platforms in good faith.
If I was being trawled intentionally by the moderator team here I am not sure if it would be worthwhile to stay.

[Mr Quatro]

^ You Russians are so funny ... we love you comrade :up:

[Onkel Neal]

Do you mean to say that it was an intentional trawling attempt?


I am trying to engage here, and on other platforms in good faith.
If I was being trawled intentionally by the moderator team here I am not sure if it would be worthwhile to stay.

I assure you comments by Mr Quatro are his thoughts only.

My post is not part of the moderation team, it is my personal interest in world news events, same as you and everyone else.

[Skybird]

Nawalny's coup is a coup indeed, and may be true most likely at least, but there was little doubt on Russia'S guilt, if any, already before that. Their defence attemnpts and claims bordered bith hilariousness and impertinence.

Consequences for the future should be: no further new treaties and deals between Europe and Russia. But its the EU, always in good faith, always in good-willingness, always in good hope, so... dont count on it.

Puts Germany again into an uneasy seat regarding Nord Stream 2, but I think it will nevertheless see it through. Possible however that it will be the last treaty or deal done with Russia for a long time to come.



The Russian reaxctions are just what they always do: when gettign caugfht, putting another load of BS on top of the previous one. Its an old pattern.


On the other hand the EU is about signing a trade deal with China, that way rewarding China'S aggressive Uighur, South Chinese Sea and Hongkong policies and its bullying in its neighbourhood, and also rewarding the aggressive digital expansion along their silkroad project that in reality is not so much about just trade flow, but getting the international currency system under their control and by that using their currency as a wepaon to ionfleunce other nations, like the dollar regime stll does today.

Germany notoriously thinks it could influence the development of China towards a more liberal and democratic society by being extremely permissive in its economic policy and even still paying China development aid (!!). Well. Well-meant idiocy nevertheless is idiocy. And the Germans can stick to it for decades - proven fact.


We will reap what we sow there. The harvest will be as deserved.

[Skybird]

Russia's federal prison service has given Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny an ultimatum that he either report to its office by Tuesday morning or face jail if he comes back to Russia after the deadline.

The Federal Prison Service (FSIN) issued a statement on Monday accusing Navalny of violating the terms of a suspended prison sentence he is still serving out in relation to a conviction from 2014.

https://www.dw.com/en/russia-tells-kremlin-critic-navalny-to-return-or-face-jail/a-56079126

This now probbaly means he is to stay in Germany, I assume?! His assistant has been arrested two days ago already, in obvious retaliation against Navalny.

Meanwhile, the Russian government delivers retaliatory strikes over EU sanctions against German, Dutch and other European diplomats who are being banned from visiting Russia.

Nord Stream 2 yes or no - its a yes, as it seems, the Germans have already indicated that they will not change their stand even after Biden's inauguration -, this cannot hide that Russian-German relations are as bad as they have ever been since WWII. And they should be that bad. Pacta sund servanda for existing treaties - but new treaties and deals between Germany and Russia, or the EU and Russia, really are in no way wanted or needed, and I cannot see this changing any time soon. Not under Putin. It may change - or not! - once we know who comes after Putin.

[Catfish]

The russian government (or better Putin) does not deliver "retaliatory" strikes by banning diplomats, the western answer to his provocation and assasssination attempt was retaliatory. What Putin did and does is unilaterally attacking and killing of inconvenient persons all over the world.

[Skybird]

Dont give this a twist again, I think you know very well what I said and how I meant it.

Of course the Western sanctions are legitimate, though not effective. And of course a Russian Retourkutsche, or retaliation if you want, was to be expected sooner or later. The Kremlin is a bit too heavy as if it needs to just sit put and presenting a target. The question is to what degree Germany or the EU are willing to ecalate it, considering their own light weight.

Moralising alone does not change the reasoning of the brutal offender. And a German operational ready state of military platforms and carrier systems of less than 40% while telling the public and NATO HQ it is above 75%, does not raise one's own credibility to be determined to deter the other if he chooses to mount more robust threats. That moscowphile and extremely radical pacifists have hijacked the SPD helm, does not help either.

No further expansion of relations and trade probably is the only thing that Germany really can do (and loosing a lot of moeny in that). If we would have better relations to Washington I maybe would even consider to stop NS2, it would deliver Russia a sting (for which it would seek retalation again), but as things stand right now, these relations are detoriating as well, with our lacking military committment in NATO we give Washington no reason to trust or respect us, nor does Washington give us any reason to trust and respect it in return - not after the past couple of years. With Biden, the tone will become more polite again: but not the substance of things.

The EU is on its own. We should trust neither Russia, nor America anymore, nor China (and not Turkey anyway...) Merkel unfortunately puts a lot of trust into China, still.

German illusions of how relevant one is.

[Rockstar]

Gents, what are we talking about? What Stalin? What Putin? In any case only working deduction method is "cui prodest". The only side who gains proftit from this situation is US (plus some EU officials). The sides that bear maximum costs are Russia and Germany. Putin isn't insane to shoot our own leg. This is an under-table game of US against North Stream. File closed.

However I cannot fully reject the possibility of some kind of treason inside our officialdom as Skybird sais - but that's again works only in favor of US, not in interests of Russia and our people...

Funny you should mention NordStream, on 30 September 2020 the New York Times ran article also thinking it may have had something to do with that.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/03/world/europe/navalny-poisoning-merkel-nord-stream.html?campaign_id=2&emc=edit_th_20200904&instance_id=21900&nl=todaysheadlines&regi_id=65464666&segment_id=37448&user_id=ade7f49dcd26312e695b1d9810638625

I dont think it really matters to Germans if they get their energy from the U.S. Saudis, Russia via Ukraine or Nord Stream 2, they need outside sources to drive their economy and heat their homes in the winter, without it they will collapse. In my opinion thanks to Schroeder and his old east German contacts and current Russian connections. Putin able to give Russia better control over their own product and prevent U.S. use of Ukraine as leverage against Russia. I'd bet big money the Biden's are very upset right about now.

[ikalugin]

I'd bet big money the Biden's are very upset right about now.


From inability to profit on the Ukrainian energy transit, sure.

[Rockstar]

From inability to profit on the Ukrainian energy transit, sure.

Yep, along with all the other usual suspects. ;)

The preceding list, and the text which follows, enumerate forty-eight Americans - in legislative politics, diplomacy, law, business, and the military - who likely have ties to Ukrainian business interests (usually the energy market) and/or corruption in Ukrainian politics and/or military affairs.

These include persons who testified, and have stated willingness to testify, at the impeachment inquiry hearings regarding President Trump's possible collusion with Russia and/or Ukraine. Not all persons mentioned below have investments in Ukraine; but they are still worth mentioning for other reasons. For example, Alexander Vindman and Alexandra Chalupa don't have any known investments in Ukraine, but they are Ukrainian-American.

1. Adams, David
2. Archer, Devon
3. Biden, Hunter R.
4. Biden, Joseph R. “Joe” Jr.
5. Black, Joseph Cofer
6. Bolton, John
7. Carey, Laura
8. Chalupa, Alexandra
9. Clinton, Hillary Rodham
10. Clinton, William Jefferson “Bill”
11. Davis, Richard H. “Rick”
12. Freedman, Matthew C.
13. Gates, Richard “Rick”
14. Gucciardo, Charles
15. Giuliani, Rudolph “Rudy”
16. Giustra, Frank
17. Heinz, Christopher
18. Kent, George P.
19. Kerry, John
20. Kerry, Teresa Heinz
21. Leiter, David J.
22. Luzzatto, Tamera Stanton
23. Manafort, Paul J.
24. Mulvaney, John Michael "Mick"
25. Nuland, Victoria C.
26. Nunes, Devin
27. Obama, Barack Hussein
28. Pelosi, Alexandra
29. Pelosi, Nancy
30. Pelosi, Paul Jr.
31. Pelosi, Paul Sr.
32. Pence, Michael “Mike”
33. Podesta, John
34. Podesta, Tony
35. Pyatt, Geoffrey
36. Romney, Willard Mitt
37. Romney, Tagg
38. Schiff, Adam
39. Sondland, Gordon D.
40. Taylor, William Brockenbrough "Bill" Jr.
41. Trump, Donald J.
42. Vindman, Alexander
43. Volker, Kurt
44. Waters, Maxine
45. Weber, Vin
46. Williams, Jennifer
47. Yovanovitch, Marie
48. Zeldin, Lee

https://aquarianagrarian.blogspot.com/2019/10/thirty-american-politicians-with-ties.html

[edit] Seems everyone involved in the last politcal boondoggle had connections to Ukraine. Now this is just a guess, but maybe Trump and his circle were trying to muscle in for a bigger piece of the Ukraine pie but was met with a media storm of accusations, investigations, jail time and impeachment from those listed above? Putin however found a way to completely avoid all the drama and just ran a new underwater pipeline. LOL

[Onkel Neal]

Navalny, victim of Putin's agents using nerve poison, returns to Russia, he's arrested. His wife arrested. His brother arrested. Over a thousand people demanding democracy in Russia, arrested. Subways and buses stations closed, restaurants and bars closed.

How long until the security forces under Putin's order get tired of attacking their friends and neighbors?


Mass arrests in Russia of protesters demanding Navalny's release (https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/31/russia-arrests-navalny-putin-464032)

[mapuc]

What I wonder is

Are Russia heading towards a civil war like situation ?

Markus

[Jimbuna]

At least one source is claiming 4000 have either been detained or arrested.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55876033

[Mr Quatro]

Navalny, victim of Putin's agents using nerve poison, returns to Russia, he's arrested. His wife arrested. His brother arrested. Over a thousand people demanding democracy in Russia, arrested. Subways and buses stations closed, restaurants and bars closed.

How long until the security forces under Putin's order get tired of attacking their friends and neighbors?


First I have heard of the Druzhina :hmmm:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-rises-up-against-putin-as-thousands-defy-kremlin-s-medieval-castle-crackdown/ar-BB1dfuD2?ocid=BingNews

Joining the law enforcement officials in Moscow were hundreds of civilian guards wearing the red arm bands of the Druzhina, a Soviet-era people’s militia.

Let me know when it gets this bad :o

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3PJuIVIZ72k

[Onkel Neal]

First I have heard of the Druzhina :hmmm:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-rises-up-against-putin-as-thousands-defy-kremlin-s-medieval-castle-crackdown/ar-BB1dfuD2?ocid=BingNews



Let me know when it gets this bad :o

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3PJuIVIZ72k

Hah, I was in Moscow when that happened. I can't say any more.

[ikalugin]

Hah, I was in Moscow when that happened. I can't say any more.


To that end there is a great lecture by Pozner which discusses how the west created Putin. You can see it here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8X7Ng75e5gQ


In general you could see that in part the foundations for the current environment in Russia were formed by that constitutional crisis which lead to Russia having a super-presidential republic and the 1996 elections where massive fraud was funded by privitising state property on the cheap in favour of key oligarhs such as Berezovsky who later would seek refuge in London.


But hey, Yeltsin was a good guy, wasn't he?
So undermining the young Russian democracy to support him must have been totally worth it.



Navalny, victim of Putin's agents using nerve poison, returns to Russia, he's arrested. His wife arrested. His brother arrested. Over a thousand people demanding democracy in Russia, arrested. Subways and buses stations closed, restaurants and bars closed.

How long until the security forces under Putin's order get tired of attacking their friends and neighbors?


Mass arrests in Russia of protesters demanding Navalny's release (https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/31/russia-arrests-navalny-putin-464032)


Technically Navalny is not under arrest, he is being held under guard untill the court hearing on his breach of parole (I think?). As to the protestors they were charged with violating COVID-19 related restrictions on public gatherings.


But hey, lets support an authoritarian ethno nationalist who entered the politics by working the smear jobs as part of the intrasystem competition. And who embezles donations for legal representation of protestors (who he incited to protest outside of agreed upon time and place and thus created conditions for their arrest and the need to gather donations for their legal representation) to go on nice holidays.


What could possibly go wrong?



As to the security forces - this is unlikely, the security forces believe that they have a shared destiny with the elites and the Berkut purge after second Maidan did not help that. Same reason why Belorussian operatives are doing what they are doing. In general the scale of protest movement is fairly small, if only because it is winter time right now, so not a real threat right now.

[Catfish]

While the rest (like intervention or holding back by the west shortly after 1990) may have some truth in it, the following has not – or rather is echoing official Putin talk.
(I do not know any internal secrets of Putin, all i know he is a somehow dependable man towards other nations, governing with an iron fist hidden in a velvet glove, sometimes forgiving in personal matters or in things that interest him, well trained as a spy knowing all those special methods to guarantee obedience and how to set the machine of mutual distrust within the government and externally to work. Maybe this is the man Russia needs, but then i think this is the usual convenient justification for the same old methods going on in Russia forever, or at least back to the Tsars. Ex chancellor Schroeder likes him, but then he also said Putin was a flawless democrat. Ahem.)

"Technically Navalny is not under arrest, he is being held under guard untill the court hearing on his breach of parole (I think?). As to the protestors they were charged with violating COVID-19 related restrictions on public gatherings."
Technically? I'd say practically and really Navalny is under arrest, whatever you try to call it.
So they said Navalny should come back, otherwise he would be arrested the next time he set foot on russian ground. So he officially returns, and is being arrested. Not even a fake court decision, right into prison. :shucks:
A later court hearing on his "breach of parole", sure. Does anyone really believe this, even in Russia? What exactly does Putin or the FSB say about the poisoning attempt? Should not THEY be before court for attempted murder?

The protestors charged and arrested because of "violating Covid 19 restrictions". Easy, then by any civilian standard they can get a fine and immediately be released.

Whatever the rulers say about Navalny, anyone else says that he always speaks the truth. This is why they support him. This is what everybody says. Sans the apparatchiks and trolls of course.
Poisoning Navalny somehow did not work out, so he has to be reduced to an "authoritarian nationalist" (:haha:), trying to become a political leader himself (oops some things do not fit), and his reputation has to be destroyed, so everyone forgets about him?
Hint: Won't happen.

[ikalugin]

There is a legal difference between administrative arrest (punitative measure) arrest, being set under guard, etc Hence the term "technically".


My personal view is that while Navalny's arrest would be entirely justified by his violation of parole terms (and other reasons, ie embezlement I mentioned above) the execution by the powers that be was poor. Say giving him court summons or setting him under guard from home instead of the circus that happened at the airport would have been better ways to do it.


To the protestors - those COVID-19 related restrictions, when introduced, had punitative measures written in, including criminal charges and prison time depending on severity. Sure they could be waved for such protests but the state is not making the exception there, same (I seem to recall?) as say the Swedes for the same protests.


As to the poisining attempt - I have my own personal opinion here and I would love to see the Germans sharing their data with the Russian investigation, the British lady that was on scene being questioned, as a poisoning of a Russian citizen on the Russian soil should be properly investigated and the ones responsible held to account.
Yet somehow all (non-lethal) cases of Novichok use are UK connected.
But hey, a consistent demonisation narrative is simpler.


To Navalny's views - I have been following his career since his live journal days, this (ethno nationalism) was what gave him entry into the 2012 protests and thus into the larger scale political career. They were since then dialled down (as he is not as radical as his wife), but the authoritarianism/populism ("I would place them into jail" instead of "I would see due process play out") and the ethno-nationalism roots are not particularly controversial.
Try searching for "Narod", "Russian March" and other such movements, you would see his participation there.


More recently though (right before the incident) there was a shift away from patriarcho-authoritarian populism, driven by the results of focus group studies and the Belorussian political technologies experience.


But hey, it is easier to find a "good guy" and support him, despite him being, ehem, a flawed character. But I would rather see Russian people make their own choices, instead of being victims of foreign (and I would be charitable to say that it could be well intended) interference.


p.s. implying that some of is a troll or otherwise acts in bad faith in response to said person holding different opinions is a poor way to conduct a debate.

[Catfish]

p.s. implying that some of is a troll or otherwise acts in bad faith in response to said person holding different opinions is a poor way to conduct a debate.I apologize .. hoping you are not a troll.

For Navalny, i am sure that for Putin he is an "enemy of the state", or better someone challenging his position. So Putin is of course trying all to pull Navalny's public esteem down so that the population changes its mind about him, thus eliminating him and his influence without killing (or only later).
Navalny has been arrested several times by Russian authorities, usually for what he attacks others for: corruption. They want to make him untrustworthy, and in your case it seems to have worked. Or.. the other explanation.
Navalny received two suspended sentences for embezzlement as you said, but it is quite sure that they were politically motivated and intended to bar him from running in future elections.

Regarding the attempted poisoning, it is not so that Russia has not quite a record of these.. "techniques". And i remember this telephone call.

[ikalugin]

Navalny is viewed as a traitor I would expect, not as an enemy. But this is going into speculations into the state of the mind for Putin and other actors.

About charges - political motivation doesn’t mean that Navalny did not participate in such activities, only that the law is selectively applied.

Is that bad? Sure.
Does this mean that Navalny is innocent and worthy of support by a classical liberal such I? Not really.

Hence why I get tired of such people get white washed and sanctified. In the end Navalny is not going to be better for Russia, but then I can’t say who will be and I am against revolutions in all forms and for a steady, peaceful, evolution and development.

As to poisonings - yes, this is an established narrative and, ironically, people who actually died to Novichoks (like 1990s bankers) are not a part of it. Ironic, plus the British proximity to all of the cases in it.

The phone call (same as the bellingcat report) was an element of political theatre amplified by media.

I wish there was a better response to this, but historically we have been bad at this, for example back in the Korean airliner times Soviets did not respond to US publishing a doctored voice comms tape despite knowing its nature.

[Catfish]

:hmmm: ok.
Who do you think would be better for Russia than Navalny, or Putin?

[August]

I wish there was a better response to this, but historically we have been bad at this, for example back in the Korean airliner times Soviets did not respond to US publishing a doctored voice comms tape despite knowing its nature.




Is that the time your Air Force brutally murdered an entire jumbo jet full of civilians then tried to weasel out of responsibility for it?

[ikalugin]

:hmmm: ok.
Who do you think would be better for Russia than Navalny, or Putin?

At the moment my preferred option is gradual transition post 2024 to a third person. Who that person would be is not yet clear.

[ikalugin]

Is that the time your Air Force brutally murdered an entire jumbo jet full of civilians then tried to weasel out of responsibility for it?

I am familiar with the US narrative, yes., but hey, who cares about the greater context and say the US Aegis crew few years later did nothing wrong ;).

[August]

I am familiar with the US narrative, yes., but hey, who cares about the greater context and say the US Aegis crew few years later did nothing wrong ;).


Yeah I'm quite aware of using deflection as a tactic for diverting attention from ones own crimes. ;)

However, even if the two incidents were comparable, which they really aren't, that has absolutely nothing to do with your country knowingly destroying a civilian airliner. That stands on it's very own.

FWIW in the Vincennes incident our gunners incorrectly identified and reacted to what they believed was an imminent threat, whereas your pilots knew what they were shooting at and did it anyways because their government was as paranoid as a Democrat member of congress standing next to a Republican with a suspicious bulge on their hip.

[Skybird]

The formal claims about Nawalny and the reason for his re-arrest, are just this: formal. If it wpould not be these reaosns, than some othe rreaosns woukd have been found. Of course he is the arch enemy of Putin and Putin tries to get rid of the problem in any way necessary. Thats why the police is so ultra-brutal against the demonstrators: fix the danger while it still is small.

The US is not in a moral position to morally lecture Russia for that. And the EU is in an indifferent position anyway, being ridiculous in any attempt to moralise. Both he American and European moral credibility are corrupted, for different reasons. The US acted in similiar ways regarding Assange: giving formal foul excuses for persecuting him, constructing a sexual offence case where there most likely is none, and never has been, the whole story has always stunko rotten form beginning on, th Swedish women starting it beign dubious at best. Formalities gave the operation to lock down and get hand on Assange an apparent legal, justified claim. But it never was that, it was about getting him into American arrest, and about revenge, and turning him into an intimidating example to scare others following him.

Putin is not Mr Kind Guy, nor will he ever win a price for fairness and sportsmanship, he does what he sees necessary to secure his power. His recent calculations however maybe are not as sdharpo and precise anymore as they once have been. He overstepped the limit with his hjabit to notoriously poison critics and unwanted people. He overestuimated his cards, maybe.

Maybe he becomes another old man who misses the right point in his life to leave it all behind, and live unknown, but safe until a natural death. Or he does what he does becasue that is the only way to become old and one day die a natural death, I dont know. But he is turning old.

And I think that mid and late Putin is a result of Western politics on Russia 20, 25 years ago, yes. Putin was always KGB, but once held a more Europe-oriented, positive, constructive attitude towards the West. I recall the times when even in Washington some saw in him someone like a new Peter the Great, and her ein Germany anyway. That time did not last for long, however. Its just that he saw the West, namely the US and NATO, betraying Russia, and I agree with that Russian perception. He also had to keep the organised crime and the oligarchs in check that under Yeltzin really where about taking over the state completely.

There is a tendency in the West to overlook faults and dark spots in the biographies of people opposing the Russian state and Putin. True for some oligarchs in the past Putin cracked down on, whom always were seen as innocent victims only with their shady sides being ignored, and I red rumours at least about Nawalny not being that harmless a guy, too, but a radical nationalist. He would not be the first saint coming to power and then revealing himself as a demon instead.

I do not defend Putin, nor his ways, I simply try to cold-bloodedly explain his actions by the needs he faces, and the motive of his to save himself and to protect - an autocratic, Putinesque - Russia. It makes no sense to want to define Russia'S interests from a Western view. One needs to look at it from a Russian view, only then you can see the predictability in it, and only then you can form a realistic policy towards it. Neither naive optimism nor demonising nihilism helps in this.

I think however that Putin sooner or later enters his end game now. He does not become younger. But who wants to predict who comes after him? And whether that somebody will be better or worse - and from what perspective? Western priority must be the stability of the state, and the safety of the nuclear and biological weapons, and the prevention of another nuclear scientists drain like after the collapse of the USSR. These and nothign else are the West'S essential interests. Evertyhign else beyond that is sentimental and luxurious, is bonus. Maybe not from the Russian people's perspective. But from ours. Leave Russia to the Russians - as long as it is not at our cost. Especially the EU is well-advised with that motto. It has demonstrated its impotence quite often now in the recent decade and imminent present. it must not bite off once again more than it can chew and make a joke of itself. Always trying to lift more than one can bear only ruins the intervertebral discs.

P.S. There is somethign about Navalny that has me being on my guard against him. I do not trust him more than I would trust Putin. Not at all, that is. He does not show the West all that he is, I have the feeling.
__________________

[Rockstar]

A bit of news and opinion who Navalny is.
https://thegrayzone.com/2021/01/28/alexei-navalny-myth-wests-russian-opposition-figure/

KK: Despite his 15-year-old crusade against Putin, his government, and corruption, Navalny is still mostly recognized only for his investigative work. Even though trust in him grew in the wake of the poisoning, the number of people distrusting him has also grown along with awareness. Overall, in the last poll about the number of people trusting significant political figures taken in August 2020, he scored two per cent, in third place after Vladimir Putin’s comfortable 40 per cent and Vladimir Zhirinovsky’s four per cent. However, some politicians who trailed behind him belong to parties in the Russian Duma that enjoy way more support as whole entities, including the CPRF and LDPR.
RK: Why is this happening now?
KK: His support in Russia has been greatly exaggerated by the Western press. The Navalny supporters, who are not as numerous, have been galvanized by the attempt on his life and his arrest... Then the idea that liberty, freedom, democracy in Russia is in jeopardy. Well I just don't see it if sites like OVDInfo is still allowed. This site kinda reminds me of the U.S. based Democracy Now and Amnesty International all wrapped into one.

https://ovdinfo.org/

[ikalugin]

A bit of news and opinion who Navalny is.
https://thegrayzone.com/2021/01/28/alexei-navalny-myth-wests-russian-opposition-figure/
Then the idea that liberty, freedom, democracy in Russia is in jeopardy. Well I just don't see it if sites like OVDInfo is still allowed. This site kinda reminds me of the U.S. based Democracy Now and Amnesty International all wrapped into one.

https://ovdinfo.org/


Russia is a strange country where one of the platforms for the opposition (Echo of Moscow radio station) is owned by Gazprom subsidiery - Gazprom media.


But if you think of it in terms of a pseudo-feudal system it can make sense, a vassal of your vassal is not you vassal, thus people couple of ranks below can be doing harmful things to people couple of ranks above.

This is how some hackers with FSB backing where hacking Medvedev's accounts and making him look bad, despite their handlers being under him in the chain of command so to speak.


Yeah I'm quite aware of using deflection as a tactic for diverting attention from ones own crimes. ;)

However, even if the two incidents were comparable, which they really aren't, that has absolutely nothing to do with your country knowingly destroying a civilian airliner. That stands on it's very own.

FWIW in the Vincennes incident our gunners incorrectly identified and reacted to what they believed was an imminent threat, whereas your pilots knew what they were shooting at and did it anyways because their government was as paranoid as a Democrat member of congress standing next to a Republican with a suspicious bulge on their hip.



Thanks to sticking to the standard US narrative, which is both false in claiming that the pilot knew it was the airliner and in setting one rule set for US and the other for USSR (the rules for thee, not the rules for me aka American exceptionalism).



The Korean airliner shot down happened against a background of a maximum pressure campaign by US, which used civilian airliners as cover both literally (by flying in close proximity to) and figuratively (by adopting the signature of) airliners.
This resulted in the air defence crews, which were being exhausted-out but those practice, making the error.

[Onkel Neal]

Alexei Navalny, leading Putin critic, sentenced to nearly 3 years in jail
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/alexei-navalny-leading-putin-critic-faces-trial-100-supporters-arrested-n1256440

As screwed up as Russia's political system is, the US is just as screwed up, maybe worse, just in a whole different way.

[Catfish]

They poison him, he lies in a hospital abroad almost dying, and then they complain he did not report back :haha:

^ Absolutely ridiculous. As state of lawlessness, they do not even pretend to use any reasonable or legal procedures :nope:

[ikalugin]

Ironically keeping him secure under guard is the appropriate response if the incident was not caused by the senior political leadership.


As otherwise a third party may re-attempt. And Navalny becomming a martyr is not in elite's interests right now, just keeping him out of sight and out of mind.

[Catfish]

^ "... if the incident was not caused by the senior political leadership..."
who pretends it was not? The senior political leadership? :yep:

A third party could have been responsible, sure. Or maybe extraterrestrials?
"Navalny becoming a martyr is not in the elite's interest", this is of course true. How very unfortunate for them :03:

[Dmitry Markov]

My complain in this Navalny story remains the same: when a simple (non-media) person breakes the rules of conditional detention only one time - there's 90% that he goes to jail immediately. Why Navalny was allowed to break those rules so many times all these years and was finaly put to jail only now using a very formal occasion ? He was allowed to provide non-approved meetings, tens times been detained then freed ( while according to Russian laws he should have been put to jail immediately after administrative detainment since it breaks rules of conditional detention most severly)? More to say - after beeing magically freed after these detainments he somehow was allowed to spend his vacations on expensive resorts abroad - being there he missed his scheduled check-ups in FSIN - which is also a severe breakage of rules of conditional detention. So for six years he was allowed to do everything he wanted with Russian laws and only now he is put to jail... To me it's all about that "some animals are more equal than the others" thing. Wonder who is really standing behind this figure in our "hights". As an "opposition" he is very so-so since he
a) doesn't show any programme and only tells that "those guys are wrong and I'm a D'Artagnan" and "hey, schoolchildren - those old men have taken everything that's in fact yours" - no suggestions how to improve economy or social sphere or else. Argument that "He is not allowed to show his programme" - can be rejected since his platform is an internet mainly - he adresses to the youth and they do not watch TV - only youtube where everyone can see his videos in which he never tells what to do to improve life other than blame current powers in all sins and calls for illegal anti-social actions.
b) even within his target audience he cannot gather enough followers to influence authorities to change their decisions - latest "protests" weren't any multiple (I don't know what pictures were translated to Western TV but in reality it was nowhere near close to even 2011/2012 years). Where are your millions, Лёша ?

Just like that :-)

[Catfish]

If he is just a wannabe revoluzzer, why does the FSB try to kill him then.
"Hunting the hunters" (https://www.bellingcat.com/resources/2020/12/14/navalny-fsb-methodology/)

[Skybird]

^ "Wehret den Anfängen." Thats why.

[Rockstar]

How not to help the Russian opposition.
https://irrussianality.wordpress.com/2021/01/26/how-not-to-help-the-russian-opposition/


“Two narratives are currently competing for attention. The first is that Navalny is the innocent victim of a brutal murder attempt. The second is that Navalny is an agent of foreign powers (The two aren’t necessarily incompatible).”


I'll add that I have yet to see independent verifiable proof of a poisoning. Anyone seen the Skirpals lately?

[Jimbuna]

On 16 February 2019, The Sunday Times reported, without identified sources, that Sergei Skripal "has suffered a deterioration in his health and is being treated by doctors". On 7 June 2020, The Sunday Times reported that Sergei and his daughter have been settled in New Zealand under new identities.

[ikalugin]

About Navalny - I said my piece.
Personally I am getting tired about every online resource that I frequent bombarding me about the man.



https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/assumption-testing-series/assumption-1-revisionist-states-are-the-cause-of-great-power-competition/
An interesting paper on IR topics.


p.s. full text below:
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/Ashford-Assumption-Assumption-1-Revisionist-States-Great-Power-Competition_Issue-Bief_210127_FV.pdf

I would highly recommend it, esp for US users.

[Catfish]

"Russian doctor who treated Navalny after poisoning has died"

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/04/europe/russia-navalny-doctor-maximishin-dies-intl/index.html

Purely aacidental of course.. Honi soit qui mal y pense :hmmm:

[Jimbuna]

'suddenly passed away' :hmmm:

[Von Due]

No doubt the doctor stumbled and fell repeatedly on a cheese slicer. Accidents happen.

[Skybird]

Ukraine war. Nawalny. Nord Stream 2. Sputnik-V.


Enjoy the constellation. Fate will maybe never show this strong sense for comedy again in your life. :yeah:

[Catfish]

Moscow expels Polish, Swedish, German diplomats

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55954162

https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2021/02/05/Moscow-expels-Polish-Swedish-German-diplomats-Ministry

[Jimbuna]

^The question being.....will there be reciprocal action taken?

[Catfish]

I guess the Eu will become even more "unreliable" now towards Russia.

[Skybird]

^The question being.....will there be reciprocal action taken?
No, the quesitoin is will there ever be meaningful action? Action that means something. Will Nord Stream 2 be canclled by Germany? Will Sputnik V not b e bought? Will gas imports be stopped?

Tit for tat with living pawns is just - well, comedy.

Russia expelled those three while they conerenced with that EU jester sitting with them at the table. I think there is no way how they could have told the EU any clearer what they really think of the EU. They do not take it any serious at all. And why would they want to do that?


Germany's Russia diplomacy has exploded into its face. Germany's Middle East diplomacy has exploded into its face. Germany's China diplomacy has exploded into its face. Germany's Iran diplomacy policy explodes into its face. John Lee Hooker's song should maybe become our new national anthem. "Boo-boom-boom-boom".

[ikalugin]

Moscow expels Polish, Swedish, German diplomats

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55954162

https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2021/02/05/Moscow-expels-Polish-Swedish-German-diplomats-Ministry


Those diplomats if memory serves showed up in support of Navalny during hiw court hearing.


Immagine a team of Russian diplomats comming to a court hearing over say German political protestors, or the recent US capitol hill rioters.


So it is not entirely unjustified, but who would mention that sort of thing?

[Rockstar]

I wonder if those European Navalny fans are aware of a New York Times article written in 2011?

https://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/10/world/europe/the-saturday-profile-blogger-aleksei-navalny-rouses-russia.html

MR. NAVALNY has Nordic good looks, a caustic sense of humor and no political organization.

Five years ago, he quit the liberal party Yabloko, frustrated with the liberals’ infighting and isolation from mainstream Russian opinion. Liberals, meanwhile, have deep reservations about him, because he espouses Russian nationalist views. He has appeared as a speaker alongside neo-Nazis and skinheads, and once starred in a video that compares dark-skinned Caucasus militants to cockroaches. While cockroaches can be killed with a slipper, he says that in the case of humans, “I recommend a pistol.”

video (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oVNJiO10SWw)
“Revolution is unavoidable,” he told the Russian edition of Esquire, in an interview published this month. “Simply because the majority of people understand that the system is wrong. When you are in the company of bureaucrats you hear them talking about who has stolen everything, why nothing works and how horrible everything is.”
He was less definitive about the future he envisioned for the country, saying only that he hoped it would “resemble a huge, irrational, metaphysical Canada.”

The new Russia of Navalny's dream "a huge, irrational, metaphysical Canada" :har:

[Skybird]

I wonder if those European Navalny fans are aware of a New York Times article written in 2011?

https://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/10/world/europe/the-saturday-profile-blogger-aleksei-navalny-rouses-russia.html

The new Russia of Navalny's dream "a huge, irrational, metaphysical Canada" :har:


Yes, that points at some of the reasons for my reservations about him.

[ikalugin]

I wonder if those European Navalny fans are aware of a New York Times article written in 2011?

https://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/10/world/europe/the-saturday-profile-blogger-aleksei-navalny-rouses-russia.html

The new Russia of Navalny's dream "a huge, irrational, metaphysical Canada" :har:


Yes, people often forget his ethno-nationalist roots, etc.


He is the good guy after all.

[Catfish]

Yes, people often forget his ethno-nationalist roots, etc.
He is the good guy after all.
"All is relative."

[mapuc]

In the eyes of the Politicians in EU and USA he is now the good guy.

Markus

[Rockstar]

In the eyes of the Politicians in EU and USA he is now the good guy.

Markus

After comparing the article from 9 December 2011
https://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/10/world/europe/the-saturday-profile-blogger-aleksei-navalny-rouses-russia.html

to today's article from 2 February 2021
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/02/opinion/navalny-russia-prison-putin.html

I believe the correct term to describe our neo-nazi good guy would be 'useful idiot'


What I really want to know, is 'Neo-nazi good guy' considered an oxymoron or a paradox?

[Skybird]

Lavrov is notorious for not giving his negotiating partners an inch, but this time he even managed to rob Borrell of his political dignity.
https://www.dw.com/en/opinion-russia-rejects-eus-olive-branch/a-56483003


Well, the EU stumbles over its own naivety and impotence. Myself, I do not even understand why Borrell went to Moscow. The EU got what it has asked for - Moscow did not let the invitation pass unused, but dished out a spanking. Of course it did - what did they expect in Brussels? Thats the Brussels that wants Russia to investigate the poisoning of Navalny and declare itself the guilty perpetrator that way. Serious...?

[Catfish]

Maybe Navalny is a useful idiot, a nationalist (b.t.w. what does the US or UK have against this :D?). But you cannot deny him courage and a harsh treating by the russian government, even admitted by Russia.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/russian-embassy-admits-imprisonment-alexei-navalny-harsh

Also of course the ridculous accusation:
“You were obligated to provide documents and provide proper explanations for not attending,” a prison official told Navalny while describing his parole violation during the hearing.

Navalny reminded the official that he had been indisposed due to his poisoning, as governments and human rights activists around the world knew.

“How about I was in a coma?” Navalny said. “Then I was in intensive care. I provided medical documents. You had my place of residence and contact information.”


So EU's Borrell followed an invitation from Lavrov. Logical he would mention Navalny. So this "invitation" was intended to punish and discredit him, ah.
Still it is not exactly a PR coup for Russia.

[Skybird]

Still it is not exactly a PR coup for Russia.
In a way it was. Depends on who their target audience was.


It certainly was a spanking for the EU. Russia invited them: "drop your pants!". And so the EU went there and dropped its pants. And got the spanking.



I had a good laugh. They practically asked for it. Yeah, there will be precious more of sanctions. Doesnt seem to impress anyone else outside Brussels.

[ikalugin]

The irony ofc is that sanctions are by now an instrument of signalling displeasure and only reinforce confrontation.


If EU wanted to change the Russian behavior then presenting a credible realistic path to lifting the sanctions would be the way.

[Rockstar]

Maybe Navalny is a useful idiot, a nationalist (b.t.w. what does the US or UK have against this :D?). But you cannot deny him courage and a harsh treating by the russian government, even admitted by Russia.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/russian-embassy-admits-imprisonment-alexei-navalny-harsh

Also of course the ridculous accusation:
“You were obligated to provide documents and provide proper explanations for not attending,” a prison official told Navalny while describing his parole violation during the hearing.

Navalny reminded the official that he had been indisposed due to his poisoning, as governments and human rights activists around the world knew.

“How about I was in a coma?” Navalny said. “Then I was in intensive care. I provided medical documents. You had my place of residence and contact information.”


So EU's Borrell followed an invitation from Lavrov. Logical he would mention Navalny. So this "invitation" was intended to punish and discredit him, ah.
Still it is not exactly a PR coup for Russia.


Don't get me wrong I'm not a Russian spy. It's just that I don't support neo-nazis with homicidal tendencies anymore than they do. And yes, it does seem the U.S. and U.K. might. But don't ignore the four politicians who publicly supported the neo-nazi. and where they came from.


Russian Foreign Ministry - МИД России (https://www.facebook.com/MIDRussia/?__tn__=-UC*F)

JainutairsSpy ocSelan1m7 at h1n:i5dsnoirnefd0 aimdPMm (https://www.facebook.com/MIDRussia/posts/3102594309839989?__tn__=%2CO*F) ·

https://static.xx.fbcdn.net/images/emoji.php/v9/tfd/1/16/1f4c4.png Official Press-Release of the Moscow Directorate of Russia's Federal Penitentiary Service

17 January 2021

Federal Penitentiary Service of Russia, Moscow Directorate, hereby informs:

On January 17, 2021, at the Sheremetyevo airport, officers of the Investigation Department of the Operations Department of the Moscow Directorate of the Federal Penitentiary Service of Russia took into custody Mr. Alexey Navalny who had been previously given a suspended sentence by a court of law and who has been on the Service’s wanted list since December 29, 2020 for multiple violations of his probation terms.

A court of law shall rule on the restriction measures for Mr. Navalny’s violations. Until the ruling is passed, Mr. Navalny shall remain in custody.

Mr. Navalny was taken into custody on the order issued by the Head of the Moscow Directorate of the Federal Penitentiary Service of Russia on December 29, 2020 that effectually put Mr. Alexey Navalny on the Service’s wanted list as a convicted person who committed systematic violations of his probation terms. The order prescribed taking Mr. Navalny into custody as soon as his whereabouts were located.

Previously, Mr. Navalny’s lawyer was informed of both the order putting Mr. Navalny on the wanted list and the order issued by the Department of Corrective Services of the Federal Penitentiary Service’s Moscow Branch to the Simonovsky District Court of Moscow effectively revoking Mr. Navalny’s suspended sentence and reinstating the actual sentence.

Earlier, on 30 December 2014, Zamoskvoretsky District Court of Moscow sentenced Mr. Navalny to serve 3 years and 6 months in prison and pay a fine of 500 thousand rubles on the charges of fraud and money laundering. The court ruled the sentence to be suspended with a 5-year probation term. On August 4, 2017, Simonovsky District Court of Moscow extended Mr. Navalny’s probation period by twelve more months.

However, Federal Penitentiary Service of Russia has registered multiple violations of the probation terms by Mr. Navalny during the year 2020; namely, Mr. Navalny has failed to check in for registration at the Department of Corrective Services of the Federal Penitentiary Service’s Moscow Directorate twice a month as per the assigned schedule. There were two registration appointments missed in January 2020, and one in each of the following months: February, March, July and August, 2020. Last time Mr. Navalny checked in with the Department of Corrective Services was on August 3, 2020. All this time the Department of Corrective Services has been warning Mr. Navalny that these violations could lead to his suspended sentence being revoked and replaced with an actual prison term.

Department of Corrective Services suspended the requirement for Mr. Navalny to check in for registration for the duration of his treatment at the Charité Hospital in Berlin, Germany. However, Charité Hospital’s official statements indicated that Mr. Navalny’s treatment there was completed on September 23, 2020. Later, Mr. Navalny confirmed this fact in a notification he sent to the Federal Penitentiary Service of Russia. In the apparent absence of any valid reasons Mr. Navalny has not appeared for any of the regular check-in appointments with the Federal Penitentiary Service of Russia from October 2020 until the end of his probation period, thus violating the probation terms again.

Article 190, Section 4 of the Penal Enforcement Code of the Russian Federation maintains that in case of a suspended sentence, systematic violations of the probation terms or evading the Federal Penitentiary Service’s control warrant an order by the Head of the Department of Corrective Services to the court effectively revoking the suspended sentence and replacing it with the actual sentence as ordered by the court.

All Russian citizens shall be equal before the law, scrupulously abide by it, aware of the inevitability of responsibility for the crimes committed.

In 2019, Russia’s Federal Penitentiary Service revoked suspended sentences in relation to more than 15,000 people, sending them to prison to serve the sentence.

More than 23,000 convicts have had correctional work replaced with incarceration.
This practice has been used in the case of those convicts who had a chance to serve their sentence out of jail but failed to use it.

Issued by the Press Service of the Moscow Directorate of the Federal Penitentiary Service of Russia, Moscow Directorate
УФСИН России по г. Москв (https://www.facebook.com/ufsin77/?__tn__=kK*F)

[Skybird]

There is no doubt for mne that Russia makes abusive use of its lawcode to get hand on Nawalny and lock him away, out of sight and out if mind. Catfish is right when he ridicules the Russian authporities for Nawalny not reporting in prresenc ein Russia while he laid more dead than alive in a German hpsital after heavign been poisoned - and most likely by right those who hold court over him. Laws can be used in good faith, and for abuse, the latter is the case here. Many regimes of the oast and present did and do so, then claiming law and order for their own suppression of opposition and unwnated opinion, and trying to escape being accused for it. However, tis a knbown method in Western states as well. Assange being a prominent example. The crimes committed by the Stasi in the gDR, all were covered by the GDR'S laws, so where the crimes committed by the GeStapo.


States are the coldest of all monsters. ALL states.

[Rockstar]

There is no doubt for mne that Russia makes abusive use of its lawcode to get hand on Nawalny and lock him away, out of sight and out if mind. Catfish is right when he ridicules the Russian authporities for Nawalny not reporting in prresenc ein Russia while he laid more dead than alive in a German hpsital after heavign been poisoned - and most likely by right those who hold court over him. Laws can be used in good faith, and for abuse, the latter is the case here. Many regimes of the oast and present did and do so, then claiming law and order for their own suppression of opposition and unwnated opinion, and trying to escape being accused for it. However, tis a knbown method in Western states as well. Assange being a prominent example. The crimes committed by the Stasi in the gDR, all were covered by the GDR'S laws, so where the crimes committed by the GeStapo.


States are the coldest of all monsters. ALL states.


You are absolutely correct every state will act, sometime harshly, to maintain uninterrupted continuity and stability. It could be said even in the freest of nations its a necessary evil if it wants to survive.


The more I read about this Navalny character he's just a ne'er-do-well, a 'zero' promoted to useful idiot. Western media is in high gear and working overtime turning him into a saint for revolution, freedom and democracy. Yet when Russia does like any other state would do. We cry foul?

Is it true Russian authorities suspended check-in and did Navalny not check-in as he was required too by law? If so, that would completely debunk the washington examiners article and this would be a case where media is attempting to shape public opinion. Which would lead to my next question, why?

“We’re an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you’re studying that reality — judiciously, as you will — we’ll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that’s how things will sort out. We’re history’s actors . . . and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do.”- Karl Rove

[Catfish]

"Vladimir Putin formalises Russia's withdrawal from Open Skies Treaty citing 'lack of progress'"

https://www.firstpost.com/world/vladimir-putin-formalises-russias-withdrawal-from-open-skies-treaty-citing-lack-of-progress-9695171.html

"Trump pulled out of the pact last year, arguing that Russian violations made it untenable for Washington to remain a party, and the United States completed its withdrawal in November."

"Biden initially signalled his administration could reverse his predecessor Donald Trump's move to quit the accord, but then confirmed late last month that Washington will not revisit the decision."

Not good.

[mapuc]

^ I think something good will come out from this action taken by both countries.

In a few years from now-They will meat and make a deal both like.

Markus

[August]

"Vladimir Putin formalises Russia's withdrawal from Open Skies Treaty citing 'lack of progress'"

https://www.firstpost.com/world/vladimir-putin-formalises-russias-withdrawal-from-open-skies-treaty-citing-lack-of-progress-9695171.html

"Trump pulled out of the pact last year, arguing that Russian violations made it untenable for Washington to remain a party, and the United States completed its withdrawal in November."

"Biden initially signalled his administration could reverse his predecessor Donald Trump's move to quit the accord, but then confirmed late last month that Washington will not revisit the decision."

Not good.


You think so?


To me allowing surveillance overflights is meaningless in the age of high definition spy satellites, we can see just as much from orbit. Better to keep their aircraft and whatever they might be carrying out of our airspace I think.

[Rockstar]

You think so?


To me allowing surveillance overflights is meaningless in the age of high definition spy satellites, we can see just as much from orbit. Better to keep their aircraft and whatever they might be carrying out of our airspace I think.


I was thinking the samething, technology has evolved beyond peoples wildest dreams when Open Skies was first suggested. Even the last ten years have seen methods and capabilities improve.

Arial photography is ancient tech. Good chance Russia or Ukraine would 'mistakenly' shoot them down like they do commercial airliners anyway, so why risk it?

[Catfish]

You are all right technically, i just think of the general 'climate'.

[Rockstar]

You are all right technically, i just think of the general 'climate'.


The climate around Russia is in my opinion already kind of hot. Im thinking Russia may not permit flights over certain areas now, not because we might see something. But because there may be a good chance of some trigger happy unkown who fires a rocket at our surveillence plane with the intention of kick starting a major international incident or war. Thats my guess.

[Reece]

They will meat and make a deal.

Markus
What type Markus? I love lamb or beef!! :up:

[Jimbuna]

What type Markus? I love lamb or beef!! :up:

Oh dear :doh:

[mapuc]

What type Markus? I love lamb or beef!! :up:

:oops: Once again I forgot to connect my brain before writing. The word I would have written was - meet


Markus