IAEA Safeguard Inspector assess Iran

[Skybird]

https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=de&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=de&ie=UTF-8&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.achgut.com%2Fartikel%2Fdie_bes ondere_verantwortungslosigkeit_deutschlands&edit-text=


Europe's opportunistic optimism can be safely rated as a crime against mankind. Iran ambitions for nuclear tehcnology by all what they do show, reveal and prove that they are ofert the military use of it.Not just "civilian use of nuclear tehcnology". It has never been different, and it is not different now, and is not planned to ever become different.



Why did the 5 + 1 signers participate in the game? One has to assume that here either real ignorance or „purposefulness“ prevailed. Because the 5 + 1 are also interested in undisturbed trade relations with Iran. And that with the bomb will not be so bad. Did Federica Mogherini, the high representative of the EU, know exactly what she was signing? She studied Philosophical Sciences and started her political career at the Youth Organization of the Communist Party of Italy. But surely she had a top-class team of experts in the background. The liberated trade with Iran was celebrated by Obama with the transfer of part of the now thawed Iranian assets; it was a first tranche of $ 1.7 billion, at the recipient’s request in cash. That’s 17 million banknotes of $ 100 each. It is allegedly the desired form of payment to buy the necessary equipment for nuclear projects from AQ Kahn (https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=1&hl=de&ie=UTF8&prev=_t&rurl=translate.google.com&sl=de&sp=nmt4&tl=en&u=https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abdul_Kadir_Khan&xid=25657,15700022,15700124,15700149,15700186,1570 0191,15700201,15700214&usg=ALkJrhgsYARe8gFNKcCBl0Pue3ObHGOWIw) in Pakistan, such as ballistic missiles or electric detonation systems for warheads. Good, if you have to get the cash for such a purchase then not only from the ATM.

(...)
This good impression was disturbed in early 2018 when Israeli intelligence in Iran came across documents that unequivocally revealed the military nature of the nuclear program. Among them was a PowerPoint presentation, apparently intended for policymakers, in which scientists report on plans to design, build and test five atomic bombs of 10 kilotons each, as well as suitable launchers.
Although the documents were dismissed as obsolete, they nevertheless constituted a breach of the contract that required the handover of all pre-JCPOA documents to the IAEA. This finding, as well as obvious efforts to acquire rockets were reason for the US to terminate the agreement. From August 2018, severe trade sanctions were again imposed - not only against Iran, but against any companies that are now still doing business with the country.
The acclaimed Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action was thus in smoke, which did not prevent the governments of the remaining „4 + 1“, however, to emphasize that they would hold on to the agreement in any case.
You shall not arm an exporter and financier of Muslim global terrorism with nuclear weapons. What brain-extracted scumbags rule Europe that they rate money profits higher than this good, reasonable, vital advise?

[Skybird]

And at New York, Netanyahu just has accused Iran of a secret nuclear storage site in Teheran.



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More scruples to bomb it out of there, that's the calculation behind that, like Hezbollah hides ammo dumps and command posts under schools and in buildings with civilian infrastructure.

[Jimbuna]

Israel could well be paying someone a 'flying' visit pretty soon perhaps.

[Skybird]

Iran is even for Israel a big bite and a long jump. And as Syria gets S-300s right to deny the IAF area access, advanced Russian air defence showing up in Iran as well imo are only a question of time. In fact they are already there. They already have S-20c since 2016 - LINK (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-07/iran-s-russian-anti-aircraft-missile-now-operational-u-s-says)- and got provided an advanced command HQ for Iran's AD this year. It is operational since two or three months.

On other news I read that Iran also got S-300 already in 2017. They did not say which version. The latest of it seem to be very capable, non-fully-stealthed aircraft may find it difficult to defeat it. And even stealthed aircraft are whsipered behind raise dhands to be anything but untouchable for latest systems like modern S-300 and S-400.

Or did anyone think the Russians would not try hard to react to the building of the F-35?


Anyhow, striking Iran without massive Americna help might be too much even for Israel these days. Wasn't this in the making some years ago, and failed due to American rejection?

[ikalugin]

From what I remember Iran got Syrian order S-300-PMU-2 which is the newest mod of that line bar the S-400.


Syria would also get the same PMU-2 mod from what I understand, however the greater factor would be how Syria would get modern C4 means and thus create an actual IADS (and avoid the future RED on RED incidents).

[Mr Quatro]

From what I remember Iran got Syrian order S-300-PMU-2 which is the newest mod of that line bar the S-400.


Syria would also get the same PMU-2 mod from what I understand, however the greater factor would be how Syria would get modern C4 means and thus create an actual IADS (and avoid the future RED on RED incidents).

Today's unmanned drones are not afraid of S-300-PMU-2's after the drones are shot down come the Hornets F-18's and then to add to the confusion come the cruise missiles from Israel's long range SSK submarines. After that it becomes a land war with the UN yelling stop stop :yep:

[ikalugin]

Today's unmanned drones are not afraid of S-300-PMU-2's after the drones are shot down come the Hornets F-18's and then to add to the confusion come the cruise missiles from Israel's long range SSK submarines. After that it becomes a land war with the UN yelling stop stop :yep:
Yet as the IL-20 incident shows the non mobile S-200 sites still live, even after shooting down an Israeli aircraft and "half of Syrian air defense system" being destroyed.


I think between mobility, decoys and land based ECM the PMUs would surivive just fine and deny the air to manned platforms, especially now that they actually have the means to C&C this whole mess. And I think Israel would just suck it up and deal with it, by shifting back to using the true stand off weapons.
Because we all know how the war between two nuclear armed states would end.
https://i.postimg.cc/SxJ7HZ5m/2018-09-25_19-12-59.png

[Bleiente]

...to add to the confusion come the cruise missiles from Israel's long range SSK submarines.
Another German submarine from HDW/TKMS...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KenWOkS9qLs

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dolphin-class_submarine

[ikalugin]

Good subs, probably the only real survivable part of their triad.

[Skybird]

5 x 10kt bombs is Iran's aim, the article says. Considering the size of Israel, that is overkill capacity, when taking fallout effects into account as well. Even just one bomb could, if wind stands badly, end Israel's existence as a functioning, inhabitable state.


Also, the resources of Israel are very limited, due to its smallness. Its military ressources as well.


And as Herman van Creveld gets not tired to point out, the nimbus of invincibility of Israel, the robustness and competence of its ground forces, the determination, are in doubt. This is not the Israel of the founding era or the past big wars with its Arab neighbours. We already saw that during the last Lebanon war. Compared to earlier times, so says Creveld, they have become soft. A mentality problem as well. In favour of Israel speaks the intellectual cleverness of its people, and engineers. They take equipment from America or Germany - and make it better. Against it speaks that the wide availability of modern technology shrinks their technological lead over hostile neighbours, and brings it into their reach nevertheless. One of the reasons why van Creveld is so much disliked in Israel is that he speaks this out quite frankly, saying that in the long term israel's strategic position is so exposed that it becomes more and more unsustainable with time going by. With an Islamophile anti-Israeli UN and nuclear wepaons spreading in the region, nothing good can come from this.

[Bleiente]

Good subs, probably the only real survivable part of their triad.
I guess you mean explicitly the problems of the German Federal Navy.
These difficulties can be attributed to the German political leadership alone.
The Schildbürger in Berlin found it particularly smart to buy the boats of the type 212A without the necessary maintenance contracts, because you could eventually save 300 million per boat.

HDW aka TKMS had discouraged this and categorically rejected a "just in time" model.

So it's not the devices - they are extremely good.


:salute:

[ikalugin]

No, I meant that the Israeli submarines are the only survivable part of their nuclear triad, which would not be as vulnerable to a damage limitation strike by say Russia.

[ikalugin]

5 x 10kt bombs is Iran's aim, the article says. Considering the size of Israel, that is overkill capacity, when taking fallout effects into account as well. Even just one bomb could, if wind stands badly, end Israel's existence as a functioning, inhabitable state.


Also, the resources of Israel are very limited, due to its smallness. Its military ressources as well.

You want significantly more than 5*10kt weapons for a dammage limitation strike.

[Skybird]

To contaminate a country that spans over roughly 360 (N-S) x 80 (W-E) km (most of that beign the empty desert in the South), and has the vast majority of its industrial and business and science and population centres concentrated in an area of just around one third of that, a single 10 kt is more than sufficient if the wind plays ball and you maybe even build a bomb such that it maximises the contamination effect by intention.


The radiation present in Fukushima is much, much less than what you expect in case of a 10 kt detonation.


Also, 5 such bombs are enough to immediately bring life in Tel Aviv, Haifa, Ashdod, Petah Tikva and Reshon Leziyyon to a lasting end, becasue the fallout at place would be such that even those not beign directly affected by blast and fire would not be able to stay and hold out in the coming years. These are the five biggest cities after Jerusalem. 1.3 million people alltogether just in these five cities. Thats roughly one seventh of the total population.


BTW, who says that once Iran got 5 x 10kt, they would not get appetite for more and bigger candy? And delivering nuke tech to terror organizations for suitcase dirty bombs?

[ikalugin]

I wasn’t talking about the counter value strikes, I was talking about damage limitation strikes.

[Skybird]

And I am talking about a Drive-the-Jews-into-the-ocean strike. Nothing else it all is about.

[ikalugin]

For reliable counter value you may also want more weapons, such as the 1 R36M2 scenario that I have provided (Russia currently has 46 of those).


For example in the recent book on the nuclear war (THE 2020 COMMISSION REPORT ON THE NORTH KOREAN NUCLEAR ATTACKS AGAINST THE UNITED STATES A SPECULATIVE NOVEL) 7 deliverable 200kt weapons were not sufficient to deter an adversary.

[Skybird]

A single 10 kt device already would make Europe pay any sum of money demanded if threatened with this device being brought to explosion in any European major city.



And what do you get if you have for example wind from north to south and you detonate a dirty 10 kt bomb over the beach in the North? Look at a map, then you know what would happen. Radioactive fallout travelling 100 km and more with the wind is nothing mysterious. This scenario would contaminate most of the vital Israeli state and economy and supply infrastructure and most of the currently inhabitated areas. The econiomical heart of Israel is in the North - where it is the smallest in West-East-spanning.



Consider nuclear contamination moving with south-bound wind when occuring durign an explosion in Haifa, travelling 100-120 km.


(map is gone)


Must not be further explained, I think. The map speaks for itself. Scale in the top left corner.




Why these academic finger exercises, ikalugin? It leads nowhere. For a small country like Israel, already a single small nuclear detonation is absolutely life-threatening.

[ikalugin]

I think we have different understandings of the nuclear weapon effects.


The radiation clean up, while non trivial, would be simpler than the historical cases (Hiroshima/Nagasaki) due to the new technology and much simpler than significant powerplant failures (Chernobyl) due to the smaller scale and well within the means of a developed country.


https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/432595736035852288/496019019846123540/Screen_Shot_2018-09-30_at_20.59.05.png

Same logic applies to the direct casualties, while they would be significant, they would still be less significant than the casualties from a major war, ie compare this with the war in Syria in terms of both absolute and relative casualties.


In essense I think you over estimate, even mystify the effects.

[Mr Quatro]

And I am talking about a Drive-the-Jews-into-the-ocean strike. Nothing else it all is about.

I don't think that will happen at least not with nuclear weapons. Y'all have been talking a lot about the physical applications of war and the impact that the use of nuclear weapons would have, but we are talking about an area of the world that is Holy to the Jews and to the Muslims and to the Christ followers.

If Israel were to be nuked it would keep it from being Holy for 99 years minimum and start looking like Chernobyl looks like today with no vegetation.

The Palestinians would suffer, the Jews would suffer, the entire region would suffer for decades.

With that in mind lets talk about the leaders of Israel and the leaders of Iran are the real problems. I have enough problems with spell check and their names, but you know what I mean, right?

The leader of Israel has bumping this threat to attack Iran for years and the leader of Iran has warned that if you do we will destroy you.

Iran can't afford to attack first due to the retaliation from Israel ... Iran already has a small civil war going with discontent of the younger generation complaining that too much money is being spent on the military and terrorism and basically hatred of the state of Israel.

That leaves the leader of Israel to attack first and he is already under attack by his own countrymen for bribes and payoffs and accused of being dishonest.

I don't think either side will do each other the disfavor of attacking first, but I could be wrong. Iran certainly is up to no good in Syria and inching closer and closer to a land war supplying rockets to Hamas in the Gaza strip.

Plus if there was a war what would Russia and America do? Stare at each other in disbelief and shrug.

I don't think so :o

We can't afford a war ... heck America can't even afford another hurricane. Russia isn't ready yet (even though they act like it) to finish off the human race with an all out nuclear war over Israel/Iran problems.

Let it slide ... we have all been here before. Wasn't there a movie where the two leaders duked it out at the end. That's what I would like to see ... get these two leaders into a ring together and let them duke it out.

Winner takes all instead of killing off 1/3 of the human race :yep:

[Skybird]

We are talking about religion, Mr. Quattro. Religion is irrational, Muhammad encouraged martyrdom, and Islam dispises Jews since Muhammad'sdays. And Palestinians - outside their lovely little piece of land they are absolutely disliked in the Arab world, since their little intermezzo in Jordan at the latest. Other Arabs instrumentalise them, but they do not like them nor want to support them.

Muhammad did want Jerusalem for just one reason: because the others also wanted it, and he wanted to deny it to them. That simple. ;)

Anyhow, a people that has suffered the attempted genocide of the holocaust hardly will base its fate on good faith and the hope that the others will not commit any mean acts against them. And who would call them out for that? Considering the also mentioen ddnager of proliferaiton of nculear devices and tehcnology, that is another argument to deny Iran nukes. Two Pakistans and North Koreas are two bad nukie-guys enough already. We must not repeat that mistake a third time.

I am not certain that Israel can strike Iran all by itself. But I would certainly wish it could. And who onoiws, others are hostile to Iran as well and the locla reigmes have learned that said reigmes are not threatened in their exiostence by Israel at all. Israel might find unexpected allies if going for Iran.

[Skybird]

I think we have different understandings of the nuclear weapon effects.


The radiation clean up, while non trivial, would be simpler than the historical cases (Hiroshima/Nagasaki) due to the new technology and much simpler than significant powerplant failures (Chernobyl) due to the smaller scale and well within the means of a developed country.


https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/432595736035852288/496019019846123540/Screen_Shot_2018-09-30_at_20.59.05.png

Same logic applies to the direct casualties, while they would be significant, they would still be less significant than the casualties from a major war, ie compare this with the war in Syria in terms of both absolute and relative casualties.


In essense I think you over estimate, even mystify the effects.
I think you best raise only YOUR family in that kind of contaminated environment, not anyone else's.


In the 60s they seriously thought a nculear war could be won. Somehow I am reminded of this now.


Again, as said before, I am not just about blast and fire radius, but contamination, with critical matter being carried several kilometers high into the air.

[ikalugin]

By 1960s quantities and qualities of nuclear weapons were greater than 5 10kt weapons.


I have already discussed fallout, it is manageable (in the 1-5 10kt weapon scenario), especially compared to the historic experience where it was managed.

So I think you are mystifying the simple weapons that they are.

[nikimcbee]

IAEA Safeguard Inspector assess Iran


I mis-read it and thought it said IKEA inspectors.:k_confused:
Weaponized Swedish meatballs maybe?

[ikalugin]

More like "Do it yourself nuclear reactor" I would say.


With the good old delivery :)

[Cybermat47]

I mis-read it and thought it said IKEA inspectors.:k_confused:
Weaponized Swedish meatballs maybe?

Dammit man, I was going to make that joke! :har:

[Catfish]

Ikea's Köttbulllar fallout is literally breathtaking, but the half-value time is around two days. :03:

While radioactive fallout is good to last for some hundred thousand years.

If i see Ikalugin write about "manageable fallout", "handling" and "removal" of radiocative material (sorry, not possible) i'd be interested in a description of a "limited nuclear war" as well as some hints in handling the worldwide raise of radioactivity after those glorious nuclear strikes and those atmospheric atom test days.
(Which b.t.w. make those pre WW2 ship wrecks and their steel so interesting for modern science. It is impossible to produce steel without radioactive contamination after 1945 due to radioactive isotopes in the atmosphere. Clean, non-contaminated non-radioactive steel is mandatory for certain scientific instruments.)

Anyone remembers the A10 Warthog 'fart' cannon firing uranium bullets for better tank penetration? The soil in the Kosovo region, in the middle east and in certain training facilities of the US are polluted for the next hundred thousand years, too. Or sinking nuclear ractors in the sea and lending the Novaja Semlja area to norwegian fishing trawlers.

Only a dumbhead not bothered by any physics education, or a one-sided military-mind, or a politician could think about a nuclear strike at all, let alone think about calculating a war in a densely populated area.
The fact that "reasonable" (lmao) people even think about that speaks volumes. Oh Trump, Putin, Erdoghan.. i see. I rest my case. Mankind is dumb and will most probably kill itself soon anyway.


On the other hand.. why do scientists and educated people let such sh..-heads kill people and pollute and destroy the earth? Why does mankind let just of all the idiots get in those positions and passively accept their neanderthal behaviour and ignorance? Why don't we just destroy them? Only joking. Of course. :yeah::nope:

[ikalugin]

There is a difference between removing radioactivity totally and managing it to workable levels. The later is quite possible, people are living in Hiroshima right now.


The problem with discussing nuclear warfighting is that people 1) have radiophobia (irrational fear of radiation) and 2) project US-Soviet nuclear warfighting (which would have had dire consequences) onto limited scenarios.

[Catfish]

^ Of course. And what do you think happens with the radiating material that you "managed" or "removed"? Think it to the end, please.


The fallout of those two relatively small bombs have dispersed across the whole world, and it still is easily measurable everywhere. Add atomic atmospheric tests, all this stuff has dispersed and spread.

Add civilian applications of nuclear energy or its "recycling" efforts like in Windscale/Sellafield with its marine contamination no one directly sees, Harrisburg, Chernobyl, Fukushima, those four german reactor failures no one talks about here, or the french LaHague nuclear "recycling" works, and you get a constant rise of that background radiation worldwide. Small but lasting. What you do in Siberia (e.g.) influences and contaminates the whole world.
The situation at Fukushima is still developing, and far from being 'contained'. And this is not like blowing radiocative stuff in the atmosphere with an atomic bomb. Even small local dirty bombs are still dirty, and the stuff used stays for a long time, here or there. Depleted uranium ist still radiating. And the stuff is also toxic.

Some people have irrational thoughts of radioactivity and how long radiation really stays. Thinning and dispersion does not mean the stuff magically vanishes. The general background radiation is rising, and after exposing this stuff there is no possibility to reverse. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Low-background_steel.
Up to now you can consider all this rather as impurities than heavy contamination, but i cannot see any effort to limit the general rise.

Apart from the inherent problems there are external problems. You can never rely on human rationality or sanity, when managing or planning anything. For example take the responsibility of those so-called specialists trying to test whatevers at Chernobyl, just so.

Transfer this already human dumb handling of situations and events to nuclear device handling of brain-dead world leaders. Do you rely on Putin's scientific education, knowledge and ethics? Or Trump's, for that matter?

[ikalugin]

And what do you think happens with the radiating material that you "managed" or "removed"? Think it to the end, please.Depends on a number of factors bust mostly being burried.

Remember, the most active elements tend to be the most short living, in fact the bulk of Chernobyl's radioactive contamination is no longer active due to the short half lives. For the nuclear weapons (unless salted) this is even more the case.


Regarding the world wide background radiation - humans were built by nature to withstand much higher levels of radiation than the current average background and historically lived in areas with high natural background radiation just fine.

[Skybird]

As a matter of fact last time I heard about Chernobyl was a docu maybe two years ago. The isotpes from it still can be measured in the sopil of Ger,an forest, certain farming vetegables, mushrooms in the wild anyway. It is like this everywhere. Chernobyl was truly global, not local.


It does nmot mean that the levl we can measur eover here, is potenmtially endagering to human health. But you systemtically downlpas the risk od nuclear contamination in general. Reminds me of the thinking in the 60s that nuclears wars between the USA and the USSR can be managed, and can be won. Nonsense. exycnage on thta level only knows loosers. And Israel - is too small and too exposed as if it cna eaisly handle just one nuke explosion contiomnatioin, not to mention several ones.



And who said that Itran will be satisfied with just 5x10 kt bombs, once they got their hands on the tehcology? They will build more, and bigger ones.
And it will be the starting shot for a formidable nuclear arms race in a region driven my irrational religion, supremacism, and a millenium or more of open unsettled bills.

[ikalugin]

Which, if nuclear weapons is their objective, they should, as 5 low yeild weapons is militarily insufficient.


Plutonium path is the better way though, just as Israel's nuclear programs shows.

[Catfish]

When monkeys play with fire

[Skybird]

Which, if nuclear weapons is their objective, they should, as 5 low yeild weapons is militarily insufficient.
For "dirtying" a wanted area, and for political blackmailing, even one already is sufficient. Fully so.