Cold War II: The Donald warns Russia of missile strike in Syria

[Skybird]

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-43727829

Lee Child writes the Jack Reacher novels. In one of them he describes his hero as somebody who does not like boxing as a sports. Because, translated from the German version of the book "Trouble", "padded gloves and a prohibition of deep hits had no place in Reacher's world".

Aiming the strikes such that they do not cause havoc on Russian troop accumulations should be enough. Explicitly warning the intended target area of an incoming strike has no place in my kind of thinking at least. Do it or don't. But dont make those many words. And do not help your target to escape your blows.

To me, such a strike is still just a reassuring about one's own bad conscience, but it does not mean to intervene in strength and bring a regime change to the place, and war criminals being held responsible, and risking a major war with Russia. America wants to reassure itself that it reacted to something its ethics label as evil. And more it probably does not plan to do.

This strike is sombolic policy once again, most likely. We should save the (American) tax money of "ours", stop supporting the "rebels" (which in no way are friends of the West, btw, but remain to be Islmaic fundamentalists), and by this help to cut the conflict time short. We should do this since we will continue to not wanting to get engaged in syria in all seriousness. So why this theatre act now? Why doing stupid acts that extend the war - and the misery of the civilian population?

[Catfish]

"Russia vows to shoot down any and all missiles fired at Syria. Get ready Russia, because they will be coming, nice and new and “smart!” You shouldn’t be partners with a Gas Killing Animal who kills his people and enjoys it!"

The Donald forgot to tell the exact time and place though.


I still wonder.. if it is so obvious that one man like Assad is responsible for violating international law and using 'forbidden' weapons, why kill his people and ruin the country and infrastructure for decades to come, instead of him? If those weapons and spooks are that smart...

(https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/984022625440747520)

[Jimbuna]

See: http://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showpost.php?p=2548963&postcount=4541

:smug:

[Dowly]

BTW, according to this BBC article (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-43697084) from yesterday, Douma is controlled by a group calling themselves Jaysh al-Islam (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jaysh_al-Islam). Said group has been accused of using chemical weapons in 2016 in Aleppo (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jaysh_al-Islam#Alleged_use_of_chemical_weapons).

And as Schroeder pointed out in the US politics thread, it doesn't make much sense for Russia/Assad to do it at this point.

https://i.imgur.com/8Carce5.jpg

Now, I'm not saying it was them, nor am I saying that it wasn't Russia/Assad, but perhaps it would be wise to investigate it a bit before hitting the 'launch' button. :hmmm:

[Mr Quatro]

As a humanitarian I don't like this eye for an eye and a tooth for a tooth approach.

They say over five hundred innocent people were affected by this chemical attack ...

Why not help them with air drop aid and EMT's and air dropped vehicles and paratroopers
and Delta Force and Seal team troops and shoot down any helicopters or Syrian planes
that disagree with our presence in their country.

If the war escalated then bring in the heavy bombers and cruise missiles.

All we did last time is cause some holes in the runway and damaged one hanger that Russian planes use to be in, but took off after a warning.

I see on the news that the Syrian army is evacuating all suspected targets ... this a good thing and funny at the same time :yep:

[mapuc]

3-4 days back I said this to a friend

He had written a post about USA threaten to strike Syria

I wrote

If Russia decide to intervene and try to take down the tomahawks or whatever USA have planned to send against Assad, it could be real nasty, ´cause if Russia does this, then they have chosen to take active part on Syrian side against USA and its allied.

Markus

[Mr Quatro]

If Russia decide to intervene and try to take down the tomahawks or whatever USA have planned to send against Assad, it could be real nasty, ´cause if Russia does this, then they have chosen to take active part on Syrian side against USA and its allied.

Markus

I'm not on the inside looking out, but I think Russia has already promised to do this and that they will not back down.

The Russians see this as a real testing opportunity to see if they can do well in this conflict in order to protect the mother land in a full scale war.

as in other recent skirmishes the USA has allies that agree the use of chemical weapons on your own population is wrong :yep:

The only thing that bothers me is who did it and why ... could it be a move to keep American armed forces in Syria? Like others have said why Syria did this doesn't add up. Yet it was missile and it was WMD chemical attack.

I don't think the news tomorrow is going to be good :o

[mapuc]

I'm not on the inside looking out, but I think Russia has already promised to do this and that they will not back down.

The Russians see this as a real testing opportunity to see if they can do well in this conflict in order to protect the mother land in a full scale war.

as in other recent skirmishes the USA has allies that agree the use of chemical weapons on your own population is wrong :yep:

The only thing that bothers me is who did it and why ... could it be a move to keep American armed forces in Syria? Like others have said why Syria did this doesn't add up. Yet it was missile and it was WMD chemical attack.

I don't think the news tomorrow is going to be good :o

I say they shall investigate it fully before sending those missiles against Assad.

Some hours ago some political expert said on Danish TV
There is not much Russia can do to prevent USA and its allied to strike Syria
He doubted Putin really wanted to take on the entire USA and the west to protect Assad. He think it all have to do with these Russian bases in Syria. Russia is not interested in losing those.

Markus

[Skybird]

if Russia does this, then they have chosen to take active part on Syrian side against USA and its allied.

They already do this since very long time, since their committment to Syria began. When was that? Several years back. Before the Russians intervened in strength, Assad was loosing, I recall I posted that I could not imagine that Assad would hold out much longer than just a couple of months now, and that the war is as good as over. That was before the Russians moved in. the Russians keep Assad going and so extend the war. Now the West helpsmout occaisonally the opposition, and by that also extend the war. Russia has clearly defined interests, the Wetsenr interest I only see in preventing Iran and Hezbollah establishing a bridgehead in Syria. strangely, that almost never gets considered in public debate over here. Iran is our friend, it seems. And Israel has no real friends in Europe.

[Skybird]

I'm not on the inside looking out, but I think Russia has already promised to do this and that they will not back down.

The Russians see this as a real testing opportunity to see if they can do well in this conflict in order to protect the mother land in a full scale war.

as in other recent skirmishes the USA has allies that agree the use of chemical weapons on your own population is wrong :yep:

The only thing that bothers me is who did it and why ... could it be a move to keep American armed forces in Syria? Like others have said why Syria did this doesn't add up. Yet it was missile and it was WMD chemical attack.

I don't think the news tomorrow is going to be good :o
Assad isn the most likela candidate, but I agree, he is not the only candidate out there. Could be Iran via Hezbollah. Could be any of the "pro-Western" "allied" LOL rebel factions (most of them being radical Islamists themselves). Could even be Turkey, though chances for that I consider to be extremely slim.

I rule out Israel, and Western states. A Kurdish faction I see as a very unlikely candidate, but theoretically possible.

Would the West care if those 500 gassed people would have been killed over the going of one or two weeks, in artillery explosions or more barrel bombs dropped from Syrian or Russian helicopters?

[mapuc]

They already do this since very long time, since their committment to Syria began. When was that? Several years back. Before the Russians intervened in strength, Assad was loosing, I recall I posted that I could not imagine that Assad would hold out much longer than just a couple of months now, and that the war is as good as over. That was before the Russians moved in.

Yes they have chosen to help Assad in this civil war

But as far I know they didn't try to "kill" the tomahawks USA fired against Syria last year, even though USA warned Russia they where coming.

This is what I'm trying to tell/mention/explain

Russia hasn't take an active position on Assad side against USA and its allied

With active I mean use SAM's, AAA and Fighterjets to kill the tomahawks or American and allied fighterjets(If They decide to use fighterjets in the attack against Syria)

Edit:
According to the news here, Prime minister May have given order to English subs, they shall be prepared to launch Tomahawks against Syria

Markus

[Onkel Neal]

Russia says they will sink ships, sink subs, shoot down aircraft. That's war.

[em2nought]

Democrats pushing us into a war. :03: lmao

[Catfish]

Democrats pushing us into a war. :03: lmao

Isn't it always the democrats, leftists, liberals, snowflakes, students, gays, lesbians, hippies being responsible for all the baaaaad in the world :haha:


But in the moment it looks that Trump just made a U-turn, with his military "reaction within 48 hours" proclaimed on monday.

Now it is like "Trump says U.S. could help Russian economy."
https://www.firstpost.com/world/trump-says-u-s-could-help-russian-economy-reuters-4427933.html

Alzheimer? I'm serious.

[Dowly]

But in the moment it looks that Trump just made a U-turn, with his military "reaction within 48 hours" proclaimed on monday.

Now it is like "Trump says U.S. could help Russian economy."
https://www.firstpost.com/world/trump-says-u-s-could-help-russian-economy-reuters-4427933.html

Alzheimer? I'm serious.
Your link doesn't show me anything.

But I guess it is referring to this tweet by Trump:
Our relationship with Russia is worse now than it has ever been, and that includes the Cold War. There is no reason for this. Russia needs us to help with their economy, something that would be very easy to do, and we need all nations to work together. Stop the arms race?https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/984032798821568513

The tweet before that (an hour earlier) had a different tone:
Russia vows to shoot down any and all missiles fired at Syria. Get ready Russia, because they will be coming, nice and new and “smart!” You shouldn’t be partners with a Gas Killing Animal who kills his people and enjoys it!https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/984022625440747520

[em2nought]

Isn't it always the democrats, leftists, liberals, snowflakes, being responsible for all the baaaaad in the world :haha:

Yep, I'm at the point I'd rather hang out with Putin than any of those folks. :03:

[Mr Quatro]

Isn't it always the democrats, leftists, liberals, snowflakes, students, gays, lesbians, hippies being responsible for all the baaaaad in the world :haha:


em2nought posted Catfish's post, but notice he edited the post :o

Originally Posted by Catfish
Isn't it always the democrats, leftists, liberals, snowflakes, being responsible for all the baaaaad in the world

Yep, I'm at the point I'd rather hang out with Putin than any of those folks. :03:

You did not include students, lesbians, or hippies so we must assume that you feel comfortable with the ones you left off :D

[Skybird]

Russia vows to shoot down any and all missiles fired at Syria. Get ready Russia, because they will be coming, nice and new and “smart!” You shouldn’t be partners with a Gas Killing Animal who kills his people and enjoys it!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 11, 2018 (https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/984022625440747520?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw)
Why do we keep broadcasting when we are going to attack Syria. Why can't we just be quiet and, if we attack at all, catch them by surprise?
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 29, 2013 (https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/372943068267573249?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw)



Yessir, why, oh Lord, oh why?

[Skybird]

Never said when an attack on Syria would take place. Could be very soon or not so soon at all! In any event, the United States, under my Administration, has done a great job of ridding the region of ISIS. Where is our “Thank you America?”— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) 12. April 2018 (https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/984374422587965440?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw)


Seems to me the White House has introduced a new military missile technology: the tweat-and-forget missile.

The Donalds' tweets last for eternity. Until they no more last.

[Skybird]

Russia says they will sink ships, sink subs, shoot down aircraft. That's war.
Yes indeed.

I do not think somebody will command to start this, but I worrxy about accidental triggering of something messy. Because with so much military attention concentrated in such a small space, "messy accident" easily can lead to "full war - damn, where has this come from?"

Hope its worth it to the American public. To me, it is not.

I also miss a clear definition of the military objectives and their relevance for the US. Destroying Assad's chemical assets? If that is all it implies that killing civilians is tolerable, on the other hands, as long as carried out by artilllery shelling and barrel bombs only. How cynical is that then?

The Russians want Syria, and different to us they are ready to do all dirty job needed to make sure that they get it. Either we have the balls to confront them with all consequences that brings, or we should step aside. Again my question, what is our military objective that is so clearly defined and so valuable that it justifies to go head on with the Russians? So far, all I hear in the media about this is wishy-washy and sentimentality.

[Mr Quatro]

Russia says they will sink ships, sink subs, shoot down aircraft. That's war.

Russia has only said that they will shoot down any missiles fired on Syria not that they will sink ships, sink subs or shoot down aircraft.

Yes, that would surely be the beginning of a war limited to the Med and only God knows what happen next :o

I think President Trump is waiting for the CIA director Mike Pompeo (in a hearing right now as I type) to be confirmed as the next Secretary of State before he fires on Syria.

[mapuc]

Russia has only said that they will shoot down any missiles fired on Syria not that they will sink ships, sink subs or shoot down aircraft.

Yes, that would surely be the beginning of a war limited to the Med and only God knows what happen next :o

I think President Trump is waiting for the CIA director Mike Pompeo (in a hearing right now as I type) to be confirmed as the next Secretary of State before he fires on Syria.

According to
Russia's ambassador to Lebanon, who said any U.S. missiles fired at Syria would be shot down and the launch sites targeted

For me it does sound like they are not just going to intercept those tomahawks, but also will go after the place/thing from where these missiles was fired from

Markus

[Mr Quatro]

According to
Russia's ambassador to Lebanon, who said any U.S. missiles fired at Syria would be shot down and the launch sites targeted

For me it does sound like they are not just going to intercept those tomahawks, but also will go after the place/thing from where these missiles was fired from

Markus

I stand corrected Markus ... your right after doing a search on the Russian ambassador to Lebanon's exact words that he points back to coming from Putin himself:

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/russia-will-shoot-down-us-missiles-fired-at-syria-and-retaliate-against-launch-sites-says-ambassador/ar-AAvKmrN

Responding to the ambassador’s comments, General Sir Richard Barrons, who led the UK’s Joint Forces Command from 2013 to 2016, told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme:

“I hope the ambassador has chosen his words very carefully because what he’s actually saying is that if the US and allies decide to strike against Syrian chemical weapons and delivery aircraft, not only are they going to try and shoot down the missiles in flight -

which they're capable of doing, but won't be with total success - but by saying the words 'launch platforms', he’s saying they are going to try and sink ships, sink submarines and shoot aircraft out of the sky - that’s war.”

Shame on me i started to ask Neal for a cite :oops:

All I have to say is "Bring it on big boy (Putin)"

[Rockstar]

Bring it on big boy????? Does anyone have any idea why it should be brought on?

Of course not, we are totatlly distracted the palace intrigue.

[Onkel Neal]

No problem.

I keep asking the sky, why does the US have to do this? Most Americans don't care two cents about what happens in Syria. Let someone else sort this mess out. We've had enough involvements with these kind of countries and they never work out, it's hopeless.

[Bilge_Rat]

No problem.

I keep asking the sky, why does the US have to do this? Most Americans don't care two cents about what happens in Syria. Let someone else sort this mess out. We've had enough involvements with these kind of countries and they never work out, it's hopeless.

exactly.

but if you are a U.S. president, you can never win. If do nothing, people will criticize you for that. If you do something, people will criticize you for that, etc.

there is no solution to the Syrian civil war, all you can do at this point is let it burn itself out and try to pick up the pieces afterwards.

[Platapus]

I am not aware of anything in Syria that is worth a single US military member's life.

[mapuc]

I am not aware of anything in Syria that is worth a single US military member's life.

Same here Can't find anything in Syria that is worth the life of an European soldier.

I guess it is, as some political commentator said

Trump and Putin has to mark their territory and it happens to be in a backyard called Syria

Markus

[Platapus]

Isn't it always the democrats, leftists, liberals, snowflakes, students, gays, lesbians, hippies being responsible for all the baaaaad in the world :haha:




You forgot to include Vegans :03:

[mapuc]

By following the news here and in Sweden

I get the feeling it wouldn't be little stick with a needle Trump are planning to give Assad

A Carrie-group is heading into the Mediterranean due to arrive somewhere next week and more ships from England and France should be heading this way.


I hope is nothing more than a show-off.

And not a massive strike against Syria and the possibility for a engagement with Russia.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

It would appear that May and Macron are falling into line behind Trump but I'm not sure the British population are so eager. I can't speak for the peolple of France of course and Germany has already stated she will not be a part of any military response.

[Bilge_Rat]

I still wonder.. if it is so obvious that one man like Assad is responsible for violating international law and using 'forbidden' weapons, why kill his people and ruin the country and infrastructure for decades to come, instead of him? If those weapons and spooks are that smart...


first, you are assuming a man like Assad is easy to find. If he was, he would have been assassinated a long time ago. No doubt he is constantly on the move, SOP for dictators.

second, removing Assad will not necessarily solve the issue. The Assads are an extended clan, brothers, cousins and other relatives control the government. Remove one and another one will take over, who may be worse...

third, the Assads are part of the Alawite clans, around 2,000,000 strong, which have key position and know that if the Assads fall from power, all 2,000,000 men, women and children will most likely be killed and/or stripped of all their assets and/or tossed out as refugees, so even if Assad is killed, they will support his replacement since the alternative is unthinkable.

this is a very complex situation. Western politicians are always looking for the quick fix or the popular slogan, but there is no easy answer.

[Dowly]

this is a very complex situation. Western politicians are always looking for the quick fix or the popular slogan, but there is no easy answer.
The easy fix is for western countries to not get involved in these internal conflicts.

[Bilge_Rat]

The easy fix is for western countries to not get involved in these internal conflicts.

agreed, for once, you actually make sense...:O:

[Dowly]

agreed, for once, you actually make sense...:O:
Like a broken clock, I too have my moments.

[Mr Quatro]

The easy fix is for western countries to not get involved in these internal conflicts.

agreed, for once, you actually make sense...:O:

Like a broken clock, I too have my moments.

Dowly proves shorter answers are better, but still I miss vienna's long rhetoric's :yep: I hope he's not sick :o

Now that there is a pause in the response to the chemical warfare used on innocent people in Syria (blink)
I hope it wasn't from the threat of Russian doubling down on the promise to punish anyone that strikes back at Syria.

This could set a red line in other do not touch or we will touch back in future conflicts of this nature.

One more note has Syria been involved in any cyber warfare in the past?
If so could they, with the help of the more intelligent Russian allies, strike back with cyber warfare?

[Jimbuna]

It would appear that May and Macron are falling into line behind Trump but I'm not sure the British population are so eager. I can't speak for the peolple of France of course and Germany has already stated she will not be a part of any military response.

Interesting article in the press this morning as to how Gazprom the Russian energy company uses its pricing model as an coercive economic weapon. Cheapest prices go to Germany, most expensive to its former eastern bloc partners..........................
Question, after the opposition in Syria is finally crushed and Assad is the unopposed President of the world's largest rubble heap who pays for the rebuilding?

[Dowly]

Dowly proves shorter answers are better, but still I miss vienna's long rhetoric's :yep: I hope he's not sick :o
I do miss Vienna's posts, well sourced and comprehensive.

As for my posts, well, I only go the extra mile if I know it might make a difference. Myself and others have been saying for years that supporting the so-called terrorists rebels is not a good idea.

[mapuc]

I think we all remember Obama drawing his red line.

And nothing happened after Assad had used chemical weapons or was accused of have used chemical weapons.

I thought

WHAT what about this red line Assad has crossed it and Obama does nothing-Guess it was someone called a salut speech(skål tale in Danish)

Some days ago I came to the conclusion why he didn't act as he had said he would.

He have been told by his security-ting-people

In the war against ISIS it would not be so good to weaken the Syrian army now that ISIS is strong.
(of course I could be totally wrong)

Today ISIS is almost gone.

Markus

[STEED]

I got a laugh from a Armchair General who rang in on this subject on the radio. He said the West can clean shop and wipe Syria and Russia off the map, his comment on Russian technology was it was at best 25 years out of date and rusting. :o :doh:

Well on that note all I can say good job people like that have no power to start military action.

Trump and Putin should meet and work things out face to face.

[em2nought]

You did not include students, lesbians, or hippies so we must assume that you feel comfortable with the ones you left off :D

That's correct, those groups don't bother me. Now vegans on the other hand, they're annoying. :03:

[Skybird]

The easy fix is for western countries to not get involved in these internal conflicts.
Meine Rede!

[Skybird]

That's correct, those groups don't bother me. Now vegans on the other hand, they're annoying. :03:
Dont worry, over 40% of vegans were repeatedly found in medical studies over the past years to be ill from nutrition deficits, and practice food habits that even may damage their genes if practiced too long. With some luck your annoyance extincts itself. :D See them in holy cow's heaven.

[Mr Quatro]

See them in holy cow's heaven.

Breaking news! Sky believes in heaven :D

[Mr Quatro]

Despot Bashar al-Assad and his British-born wife, dubbed “the First Lady of Hell,” enjoy a lavish lifestyle while children are gassed to death on the streets of Syria.

http://a57.foxnews.com/images.foxnews.com/content/fox-news/world/2018/04/13/syrian-dictator-assad-wife-living-life-luxury-while-county-in-tatters/_jcr_content/article-text/article-par-9/inline_spotlight_ima/image.img.jpg/612/344/1523634698511.jpg?ve=1&tl=1

They don't even live in their palace due to the war nearby (only ten (10) miles from the chemical war going on in their country)

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2018/04/13/syrian-dictator-assad-wife-living-life-luxury-while-country-in-tatters.html

The Syrian tyrant and his spouse Asma al-Assad own an opulent palace estimated to be worth $1 billion in Damascus — less than 10 miles from Eastern Ghouta where innocent people are being massacred by pro-government forces.

The murderous pair’s ultra-modern presidential mansion — commissioned in 1979 and designed by Japanese architect Kenzo Tange — is thought to have cost up to $1 billion.

A report in 1989 claims one single room was fitted with 125,000 marble tiles costing a total of $10.6 million.

Yet despite its extraordinary cost, the 340,000-square-foot home has barely been used since the start of the civil war as its location on top of a hill to the west of Damascus makes it is an easy target for missiles.

[Kptlt. Neuerburg]

So it begins.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/trump-says-he-has-ordered-us-military-strikes-on-syria/ar-AAvRrWC?li=BBnb7Kz

[Mr Quatro]

https://s.hdnux.com/photos/72/55/57/15391720/3/920x920.jpg

https://www.seattlepi.com/news/politics/article/The-Latest-Trump-to-address-nation-on-Syria-12833367.php


WASHINGTON (AP) — The Latest on U.S.-led missile strikes on Syria (all times local):

9:50 p.m.

Explosions are being heard to the east, west and south of Damascus as the U.S., U.K. and France conduct airstrikes in retaliation for an alleged chemical attack by the Syrian government on its own people.

Witnesses saw blasts surrounding much of the Syrian capital and a huge fire could be seen from a distance to the east. An AP reporter in Damascus says the attacks turned the sky orange. Syrian television reported that a scientific research center had been hit.

Syrian media reported that Syrian defenses hit 13 rockets south of Damascus. After the attack ceased and the early morning skies went dark once more, vehicles with loudspeakers roamed the streets of Damascus blaring nationalist songs.

[Rockstar]

December 2004, King Abdullah of Jordan was the first Sunni Arab leader to publicly warn the West about “a Shiite crescent’ emerging after the Iraq War, which Iran would exploit to spread its influence across the Arab world.

[Kapitan]

Just a thought on this subject really and i do think a lot of people miss the point.

Way back when this began the Assad regime invited Russia to operate from Tartarus and also asked them to assist in the defense of the (like it or not) Legitimate regime and help defend it against ISIS.

The the USA UK and France rocked up uninvited and started hitting ISIS targets in the country under the prelude "war on terror" now in reality that is a violation of Syrian Sovereignty i have looked back at all different sources and not once did i find an open invite for the west to start bombing targets (maybe some one can assist here) but at that time it suited both sides, but technically the West has declared war on Syria.

The Syrian government and Russia have a joint defense agreement (like the UK USA) Assad is able to use (like the UK can) its allies assets in time of war provided they are based on their own territory, the USA has directly stated it is targeting Syrian targets thus it in terms of legality declared war on Syria.

The United Nations never sanctioned the current strike using Article VII there fore the Syrian government and her allies have the right to strike back in defense.

Just seem's to me that the steps that are there are being ignored by both sides.

[STEED]

One off or will this carry on? Russia/Syria we wait to see there response.

[Catfish]

Trump, Macron and May, trying to divert the medial focus from their home problems?
No UN mandate, and the West is not the good guy.
I am at a loss for words.
Kapitan said it best.

[Platapus]

Just a thought on this subject really and i do think a lot of people miss the point.

Way back when this began the Assad regime invited Russia to operate from Tartarus and also asked them to assist in the defense of the (like it or not) Legitimate regime and help defend it against ISIS.

The the USA UK and France rocked up uninvited and started hitting ISIS targets in the country under the prelude "war on terror" now in reality that is a violation of Syrian Sovereignty i have looked back at all different sources and not once did i find an open invite for the west to start bombing targets (maybe some one can assist here) but at that time it suited both sides, but technically the West has declared war on Syria.

The Syrian government and Russia have a joint defense agreement (like the UK USA) Assad is able to use (like the UK can) its allies assets in time of war provided they are based on their own territory, the USA has directly stated it is targeting Syrian targets thus it in terms of legality declared war on Syria.

The United Nations never sanctioned the current strike using Article VII there fore the Syrian government and her allies have the right to strike back in defense.

Just seem's to me that the steps that are there are being ignored by both sides.

Those are all excellent and cogent points that merit re-reading.

[Jimbuna]

Trump, Macron and May, trying to divert the medial focus from their home problems?


That may well be a part of the reason :hmmm:

[Skybird]

The West, namely the US, did start to confront IS all over the place, not just Syria, since IS was conquering territories in severla different countries. Syria was just one of them.

IS is just a strawman aregument for the Russians to stay in Syria. If IS would not be there, then another strawman argument would have been found to justify Russian engagement. Becasue what they want there is a geostratgeical stronghold of theirs. The russians are as much guests in syria as the Sovjets were guests in the Warsaw Pact states. And we know that they did not accept to get invited out again, but used tanks to express their denial. The Assads do not represent all of Syria's population, not before the war, an d much less so since this war and their atrocoties committed. It is just an ethical faction of the population where the assad'S score strong. its an ethnic conflict more than most other things. Many in the west do not see this.

If international law would in effect start to reward terror, mass murderring and war crimes, then something os wrong with this law and the way it gets implemented. To let according perpetrators off the hook over formalities, is inhumane, cyncial, and insane. Thats why these days I just laugh about the SC at the UN. Everybody cna see that such an idea could only work with a minimumm of objectivity being used by all its members. And that is not the case.

I think these strikes now are a waste of tax money, I oppose them, but not for those sentimental reasons mentioned in the posts above. In the end, nobody really cares for those civilians, if they would have been killed not by gas, but by starvation in another years-long siege, nothign would have bene done about it.I also question the geostrageical value of the military objections (of reducing Assad'S chemical weapon stockpiles).

Thbe Russians promised one year ago to make sure Assad's chems get destroyed and not used anymore. They broke their promise. And probably had never the intention to make sure to keep it anyway.

Its cheap to always call out the West if it does something somebody does not lie, and shootiung with the internationa law. I hear no complaints if the terrorists of IS, if the Assad in damascus, if the Russian cooperation with barrel-bombing civilians and and if the Iranisn equip and maintain Herzbollah strongholds in syria. Where is your care for justice and freedom and peace there?

The UK, France and the US now do some firweworks. Okay. If their tax payers let their leaders get away with this, it is not too juch of a concern to me. I just think this is a waste, and i wonder that they are doing it. A big mess like the geostrategical defeats after Vietnam or Iraq 03 will not follow this. Its only a waste of tax money.

Next is Russia's moves.

P.S. And while I think of it, no confrontation with Russian troops took place. But we can take it as granted that all really valuable, decisive targets in syria are being protected by either Russian weapon defences, or just Russian presence, or both. And that means that no really important targets can have been hit last night. Which puts the whole operation into doubt again: symbolical theatre thunder. - Looks like a display not of Western resolve, but the explicit lack of it. And this sends defintely a message of weakness, not strength or determination.

[u crank]

Trump, Macron and May, trying to divert the medial focus from their home problems?
No UN mandate, and the West is not the good guy.
I am at a loss for words.
Kapitan said it best.

Yea. We've seen this movie before. I'd bet the Russians were given a heads up. I am reminded of Dylans' Masters Of War. War is good for business.

Trump campaigned against this very thing. I am also amazed at how the American media, both left and right, and the talking heads experts almost unanimously demanded action.

[Skybird]

A German commentator adds to my thoughts above that Assad probnaly explciitly wnated to dmeonstrate to the Arab world the indifference and lacking reliability of the West and its weak military actions, whereas the Russian appear to stay unmived, resolute, reliable. The West already has silently accepted Iranian and Russian dominance over Syria, and its selfrestraint and self-limiting to just fight IS has left Assad free to focus all his wrath on killing the opposition.

Weakness never give sbirth to strength. The west in syria has demostrated htis truth once again. The monsterous acts by Assad have been made possible bo the West'S stipid appelaing, followed by completely undetermined , weak action. The west shoud bag estayed out from all beginning on, and should have limited itself to just bomb IS all over the region - without remorse. The caring, cautuous acting instead, already started under Obama, has helped tremedously to massively damage the reputation of the West in the whole region.

If you do war, do it in full, and go all the way. Ther eis no such thing as " a little bit of war, but not too much". That is infantile Quatsch.

[Onkel Neal]

This isn't over, it's just getting started.

[Aktungbby]

^WW III!:yep:

[Skybird]

This isn't over, it's just getting started.
Have you noticed that right especially secretary Mattis, former USMC general himself, has chosen to be far more sober and cautious in his wordings of the past nights events than May or Trump? ;)


Maybe there will be more theatre thunder, yes. But that it will be more than relatively harmless stage thunder I do not believe before it happens. The Russians' mere presence protects the real important assets and high value targets, and then there is the Russian. Your president will not touch the Russians. He will lambast and roar and shout and of course tweet and try to give the impression to be insane and unpredictable and too dangerous not to leave him his will. And thats it. The Russians simply will sit it out, and your forces will not strike targets where Russians are present.

That a struck target has had no Russian presence, is almost evidence that it was relatively unimportant. And I wonder to what degree the presence of Iranians has the same effect of protecting a potential target.

I think the Israelis understand this better than the UK, France or the US. They struck, did not ask, did not care for Russians present or not, they did it and did not make any words about it. Period.

Russia also causes a deep rift amongst the EU again. Military EU corps? Germany stays out, many others as well. If anything this operation shows what a paper tiger the EU is, despite all its high-flying plans and the Euroicorps and whatever there is or shall be.

Fireworks show in the night club it all is, that simple. Get your drinks fresh and cold, enjoy the show, and have a good time. The guilty-feeling conscience has been soothed with fatastic alibi action.

Merkel says Germany will not join any military action. She also says that Germany fully supports the military intervention. So einen Spagat muß man erst mal hinkriegen! LOL

[Skybird]

This comment probably nails it.

https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=de&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=de&ie=UTF-8&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.welt.de%2Fpolitik%2Fausland%2F article175444577%2FMilitaerschlag-in-Syrien-Die-ohnmaechtige-Demonstration-der-Macht.html&edit-text=

[Catfish]

@ Skybird the reason why we do not act as the IS Hizbollah or Russia is exactly the reason why we are "the west". This may be perceived as weakness, but it is indeed what makes us stronger, and is the real difference. You cannot act as the tiger all the time without becoming it.

While i also think those were some expensive if meaningless fireworks, and those three nations attacking syrian ground with missiles are not really having a plan that exceeds this attack, it also showed that the west is able to act, and if it was able to attack only chemical weapon plants and research centers for those weapons, good.

This comment "awaiting the russian response" is exactly what is wrong here. Like with Churchill bombing german cities, and then waiting for retaliation to turn it around for propaganda, and have a reason to then go to civilian area bombing. He played Hitler like a piano. Yes, Poland and Rotterdam, i know.

So what will the russian reaction be? They are stronger than ever after Trump's PR stunt, and perceived as unmoving stalwart allies. They do not need to do anything.
What i still think is that Russia will retaliate, by sinking one or two of the attacking platforms. Because that is what they said, and they always do what they say if only for saving face, the west just prefers not to listen properly. Then we will see what really happens next.

[Onkel Neal]

The Biggest US Navy Force Since Iraq Invasion May Be Sailing Toward Syria (http://time.com/5239044/us-navy-warships-sailing-syria/)

Hmmm... does this sound right? :Kaleun_Wink: Get ready, Russia.

https://encrypted-tbn3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTsFpa0yLHnKHLwC7uCwDVi6syUrWVCo D4rb_gBm5qybcCj1ZjBzkkXMoELitI9CPgGZgTYptmnotk

The biggest U.S. Navy force since the 2003 invasion of Iraq may be headed toward Syria as President Donald Trump weighs a military response to the suspected chemical weapon attack in Douma, a town on the outskirts of Damascus.

The Times of London reports that the U.S. Navy is sending a total of ten warships and two submarines into the Mediterranean Sea. Any Navy task force will likely be led by the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier the U.S.S. Harry S. Truman, which set out from Norfolk, Virginia, this week with a strike group of five escort warships, according to the Times.

The American aircraft carrier is capable of carrying 90 aircraft, including F/A-18 Super Hornet fighter jets.

The guided missile destroyer the U.S.S. Donald Cook, which is capable of launching cruise missiles, is already in the area. There are believed to be three other destroyers and two submarines in the Mediterranean, as well, the Times reports. The French frigate Aquitaine has also been reported off the coast of Lebanon.

The Russian Navy has at least two Admiral Grigorovich-class frigates, which can launch cruise missiles, in the Mediterranean as well as submarines and support vessels, Reuters reports. There are also dozens of Russian warplanes stationed at the Hmeymim airbase in Syria. Russia also has an advanced S-400 anti-aircraft system, which is believed to be capable of shooting down both warplanes and cruise missiles.

So, does anyone know the balance of naval power in the region? How many US ships vs how many Russian ships?

This is like a Dangerous Waters scenario playing out in real life, I only hope if shooting breaks out, it ends when one force sinks the other force.

[Skybird]

Where is it written that the Russian reply in action in Syria? The world is big, and the US IT infrastructure is a wide, open place, and the Russians ally with many enemies of the US and Europe that could serve as their proxies.

I stick to it: American units attacking sites with Russian "advisors" present I will believe when I see it. Not one minute earlier.

No flight zone Hanoi, anyone?

[Onkel Neal]

I'm with you, but

Russian Army Colonel Gen. Sergey Rudskoy put a number to the claim, telling reporters that 71 of the cruise missiles were intercepted by Syria's air defense systems.

"It proves high efficiency of the Syrian armament and professional skills of the Syrian servicemen trained by the Russian specialists," Rudskoy said at a Ministry of Defense media briefing. "Over the last 18 months, Russia has completely recovered the Syrian air defense systems, and continues its development."

:O:

[Skybird]

@ Skybird the reason why we do not act as the IS Hizbollah or Russia is exactly the reason why we are "the west". This may be perceived as weakness, but it is indeed what makes us stronger, and is the real difference. You cannot act as the tiger all the time without becoming it.

While i also think those were some expensive if meaningless fireworks, and those three nations attacking syrian ground with missiles are not really having a plan that exceeds this attack, it also showed that the west is able to act, and if it was able to attack only chemical weapon plants and research centers for those weapons, good.

This comment "awaiting the russian response" is exactly what is wrong here. Like with Churchill bombing german cities, and then waiting for retaliation to turn it around for propaganda, and have a reason to then go to civilian area bombing. He played Hitler like a piano. Yes, Poland and Rotterdam, i know.

So what will the russian reaction be? They are stronger than ever after Trump's PR stunt, and perceived as unmoving stalwart allies. They do not need to do anything.
What i still think is that Russia will retaliate, by sinking one or two of the attacking platforms. Because that is what they said, and they always do what they say if only for saving face, the west just prefers not to listen properly. Then we will see what really happens next.
Thats too philantropic for me and too far apart from the realty I live in since 50 years. Weakness is not superiority. Striking power decides conflicts, not self-claimed cicilization "supeiuroirty". Rome was brought down by people that were civilizationally inferior to it once it had corrupted the cultural integrity of its military capabilities.

You have lost Syria to Iran and Russia already. But you claim the West is the stronger player in Syria? :)

The Russians played Syria tough from beginning on, and by this increased their degrees of freedom. We have allowed to be braked out by our concerns and indifference and worries to not become too dirty when doing the dirty stuff. And we have constantly redcued our degrees of freedom.

That is not strength. That is lying to oneself. Reminds me bit of the battle of Azincourt. Different context and focus, but still, a comparable problem. French self-perception of noblesse and honour (knight heavy cavallry) against British use of "ignoble" weapons (longbows), ordinary peasants almost wiping out a full generation of the elite of the French aristocracy. The French might have been the more noble, and their honour codex might have been superior and civilizationally more valuable, or so they thought. Still they got defeated. By ordinary peasants. And they bled terribly. Because the enemy used an ignoble weapon.

If you want to be the living civilizationally superior being, you need determination and practical strength. Just the claim alone does nothing for you.

[Skybird]

I'm with you, but



:O:
Eh - I miss your point, sorry...?

[Skybird]

Googling on that Russian claim Neal mentioned, I found reports about last year's strike (that I did not follow that closely back then) that of 59 fired Tomahawks, 36 "went amiss". Its mentioned that they were not shot down, but got succssfully "blinded" by Russian ECM. The German sources for these reports that I found so far however are a bit dubious and by name unknown to me.

Is it true? If two thirds of those Tomahawks were successfully neutralised by Russian ECM defences, this would be not just a loss in prestige but a practical desaster for America's prime class of cruise missiles.

[Mr Quatro]

It's a battle for what we think ... :yep:

This is how the real enemy works with lies and counter charges that the chemical attack was staged:

http://thehill.com/policy/cybersecurity/383169-pentagon-reports-increase-in-russian-trolls-since-syria-strike

The Pentagon reported Saturday a massive spike in online Russian propaganda efforts in the hours before and after the U.S. missile strike on Syria the night before.

“The Russian disinformation campaign has already begun. There has been a 2,000 percent increase in Russian trolls in the last 24 hours," chief Pentagon spokeswoman Dana White said in a briefing on Saturday.

[mapuc]

I hope it will stay with this one night bombing and thereafter nothing more

I hope this Swedish journalist is right in his statement

"
In fact, Russia has more to lose on starting a military confrontation with the United States than they have to gain from it.

The war in Syria has been an enormous success for Russia and strengthened Vladimir Putin's role as an international player. He certainly does not risk losing this Russian foothold in the Middle East. Better then swallowing humiliation that the West attacked despite Russia's warnings
"

Markus

[Skybird]

It's a battle for what we think ... :yep:

This is how the real enemy works with lies and counter charges that the chemical attack was staged:

http://thehill.com/policy/cybersecurity/383169-pentagon-reports-increase-in-russian-trolls-since-syria-strike
Yes.

But:

So far neither London nor Washington nor Paris have shown evidence for their own claims either. And they decided to strike less than a full day before the inspectors started their research work in Syria today. No matter how much trust you have in these inspectors and how much or how little credit you give the UN and the OSCW - wouldn't it have been more clever to let them do their work and finding evidence, refer to it - and then "strike"?

It also got reprted in the nationakl TV news an hour ago over here that obviously there has been far mor contacting between Russian and American military before the strike, then Washington now is ready to admit, and that the rsusians star5ted to relocate and - most important - left their very advanced radar for their quite lethal AS missiles deactivated. The cruise missiles that got shot down, seem to have been shot down by Syrian batteries alone. And Russia now threats to deliver even more S300 systems to Syria.

These damn things -S3000 - really start to become a pest in the ME. Will make surgical strikes from air much more difficult in the future, once the systems are installed and the crews have been trained (no short-termed task that is, they said).

[Catfish]

^ for what i heard they did not let the UN inspectors do their work/blocked access.

Of course in this mudslinger war it is difficult to believe any side.. and Russia trolls, fog of war and general propaganda make it difficult to see through.

I guess it is the same with all wars, at some point the winners' historians agree on what the "truth" is, and what we can read that in history books later.
And it only makes sense when you read those books, because back then there was none.

[Skybird]

^ for what i heard they did not let the UN inspectors do their work/blocked access.
They just arrived this morning.

[Onkel Neal]

Eh - I miss your point, sorry...?

Sorry, that was not meant to be a rebuttal. I agree with you about
American units attacking sites with Russian "advisors" present I will believe when I see it. Not one minute earlier.

I'm pretty sure the Russians were given the exact coordinates of the missile strikes well before they were launched.

And the Syrians claim they knocked down a lot, and if true, that means the US is relying on old tech missiles, despite what the President claims.

[Skybird]

Bringing down cruise missiles by ECM, and shooting them down, are two things, and I doubt that Syria is capable to perform strong in c ECM. Russia - is another case. ECM, like radar as well, is a speciality of theirs. For the Syrian claim of 13 downed missiles, there currently is no further evidence given. Although expecting a 100% reliability in any released wave of missiles is not realistic either. Some of the world'S most capable air defence systems currently are operating in Syria, if counting Russian-operated and Syrian operated platforms together.

The number I asked about from last year, that 36 of 59 Tomahawks have been brought down in last year's attack, I researched futher. I do not trust it too much, since I found the original source behind this number seems to have been the Russian defence ministry itself. I found no credible source for this claim. On German sites, it was also claimed that some of those cruise missiles were brought down by already installed superior Russian anti-missile lasers on ships. Another claim I do not trust too much, since a.) there are not that many Russian ships at Syria, and b.) these claims again got spread by apparently pro-Russian sites.

Propaganda warfare.

[mapuc]

Do not forget an important thing-In war exaggeration is something both sides use

Markus

[Skybird]

This analysis of the strike last years contains some hints on to-be-expected reliabilities of US cruise missiles and Russian ones, that may give us a clue on what results to expect from the attack yesterday. I did not expect much form it at all, and this article kind of supports me. To quote from thatr last passage in that article: The US (read: Trump) is more intent on creating headlines than making an actual difference.

[August]

December 2004, King Abdullah of Jordan was the first Sunni Arab leader to publicly warn the West about “a Shiite crescent’ emerging after the Iraq War, which Iran would exploit to spread its influence across the Arab world.

Good man Abdullah. Paratrooper you know.

[Rockstar]

Ummm, U.S. AND British and French fired missiles. Of course media makes it all about Trump, very convenient for European leaders. Makes a great distraction hiding their participation. But if I'm not mistaken Emmanuel Jean-Michel Frédéric Macron and Theresa Mary May partook in the attack too. What were their reasons, headlines as well? Then there's the German Syrian response as one headline states "... Their strategy: Delay an intervention and remain vague."

The Middle East is a decades long debacle where major powers have been vying for the strongest position (or not) at the expense of the local population. The Major players involved are China, Russia, Turkey, Israel, Sunni, Shiite, U.S. And yes you too Europe don't ever let it slip your mind, you are just as involved and lent just as much a hand in making the middle East into what it is today.

But lets make it all about Trump. How convenient.

[Rockstar]

I remember Trump in his campaign for the presidency said he didn't want to do this. Now we're in it again, makes me wonder who is following who?


PARIS - French President Emmanuel Macron on Sunday said he had convinced U.S. President Donald Trump to keep troops in Syria, as he defended joint air strikes he said were legitimate and allowed France and allies to regain credibility.

[Skybird]

Ummm, U.S. AND British and French fired missiles. Of course media makes it all about Trump, very convenient for European leaders. Makes a great distraction hiding their participation. But if I'm not mistaken Emmanuel Jean-Michel Frédéric Macron and Theresa Mary May partook in the attack too. What were their reasons, headlines as well? Then there's the German Syrian response as one headline states "... Their strategy: Delay an intervention and remain vague."

The Middle East is a decades long debacle where major powers have been vying for the strongest position (or not) at the expense of the local population. The Major players involved are China, Russia, Turkey, Israel, Sunni, Shiite, U.S. And yes you too Europe don't ever let it slip your mind, you are just as involved and lent just as much a hand in making the middle East into what it is today.

But lets make it all about Trump. How convenient.
Its Europe, so what did you expect?

My general criticsm of this operation however stands - no matter who participated and who not: the operation is pointless, and a waste. And the US took the major share and the leadership, didn't it? And the Donald leaned himself out of the window like noone else, didn't he? ;)

[Platapus]

Nothing to worry about folks.

Trump tweeted "mission accomplished"

Now where have we heard that before.....

[Jimbuna]

One of my concerns being....had Russia not been forewarned and instead been on a state of alert, the aircraft used during the attack could have been in serious harms way.

Having said that, I doubt aircraft would have been sent in, only missiles.

[Schroeder]

I believe the aircraft that were used didn't go into Syrian airspace but launched cruise missiles from far away.

[u crank]

Nothing to worry about folks.

Trump tweeted "mission accomplished"

Now where have we heard that before.....

Let's hope that what came after that first proclamation isn't repeated.

[Rockstar]

Launching 59 cruise missiles at once kinda tells me we probably knew well in advance about the Russian counter measures. I'm also quite sure we gathered substantial intel on how well they work too. :D

Now because of the lessons learned we're both busy developing faster bigger better missiles and new strategies and tactics to counter the counter measures.

[Skybird]

I believe the aircraft that were used didn't go into Syrian airspace but launched cruise missiles from far away.

^ This.

According to Wikipedia, Storm Shadow has a standoff range of around 450 km, Tomahawk roughly around 2500 km.

The mere purpose of cruise missiles is that it is the the missile "cruising in" - not the carrier platform.

[Platapus]

Let's hope that what came after that first proclamation isn't repeated.

Perhaps we will be told that the Syrian forces are just a bunch of Dead-enders and that everything will be over by Christmas.

[August]

Nothing to worry about folks.

Trump tweeted "mission accomplished"

Now where have we heard that before.....

That's right, deliberate obtuseness. The Democrat media machine has decided that no Republican can ever use those two words for any situation.


U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley on Sunday defended President Trump’s declaration of “mission accomplished” in the Syria missile strikes, saying the president was talking in military terms about a singular task, not about foreign policy, while reinforcing that the “United States’ work in Syria is not done.” “We all know our work in Syria is not done,” she told Fox News’ “Fox News Sunday.” “I can assure you that the president is watching.”


http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2018/04/15/haley-warns-assad-trump-watching-us-work-in-syria-not-done.html

[les green01]

when will the us learn not to warn before just do it and hit hard

[Rockstar]

Because we don't want to start world war III. Keep in mind it wasn't about harming Russia, Russian soldiers or advisors. It was about, if you believe it, the use by Syria chemical weapons, manufacturing and storage facilities.

Look on the bright side both Russia and the U.S. learned a little about each others weapons systems. win win

[Kapitan]

The Biggest US Navy Force Since Iraq Invasion May Be Sailing Toward Syria (http://time.com/5239044/us-navy-warships-sailing-syria/)

Hmmm... does this sound right? :Kaleun_Wink: Get ready, Russia.

https://encrypted-tbn3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTsFpa0yLHnKHLwC7uCwDVi6syUrWVCo D4rb_gBm5qybcCj1ZjBzkkXMoELitI9CPgGZgTYptmnotk



So, does anyone know the balance of naval power in the region? How many US ships vs how many Russian ships?

This is like a Dangerous Waters scenario playing out in real life, I only hope if shooting breaks out, it ends when one force sinks the other force.


The Current Russian fleet presence is limited to a few landing vessels and a fleet oiler along with Udaloy & Sovremenny class destroyers.

What we have not seen yet is the sailing of the Kuznetsov and Kirov class cruisers (yes i got that right before you say she is an aircraft carrier) we also have seen no real activity From the black sea which is the closest fleet to the action.

Black sea fleet has some 45 active warships the largest being Moskva a slava class cruiser and the next being Kerch a smitlevvy class destroyer a vintage 1960's era warship that's been heavily modified and upgraded, in support are 3 new frigates and also some older vessels of the Krivack class.

In support roles for landing troops there are Aligator class and Roupucha (a couple of the latter class are known to be in Syria right now along with a fleet oiler.

Recently the only submarine that was operated in the Black sea was the Alrosa she has since been joined by 6 others of the more improved and new designed Project 636.3 Kilo class, we do know there is likely to be one of these vessels on station at the moment.

It is also likely the a Northern fleet attack submarine likely to be of the Project 971U class (Akula Improved) on station it wouldn't now be uncommon for a Project 949A/M to take up station as well and if Trump is sending a carrier group that way then it is very likely one or two may be dispatched in the coming days but as of yet no sailings have taken place.

Currently the Russians do not disclose submarine activity but from what i gather reading between the lines there are some 8 russian submarines at sea at the moment from the Northern and Black sea fleet's at least 2 of these will be SSBN's the other is likely to be From the baltic and also Northern.

At the moment the assessment i would give is that the NATO alliance has the numbers although keep an eye on the black sea fleet.

[Mr Quatro]

Recently the only submarine that was operated in the Black sea was the Alrosa she has since been joined by 6 others of the more improved and new designed Project 636.3 Kilo class, we do know there is likely to be one of these vessels on station at the moment.

It is also likely the a Northern fleet attack submarine likely to be of the Project 971U class (Akula Improved) on station it wouldn't now be uncommon for a Project 949A/M to take up station as well and if Trump is sending a carrier group that way then it is very likely one or two may be dispatched in the coming days but as of yet no sailings have taken place.

Currently the Russians do not disclose submarine activity but from what i gather reading between the lines there are some 8 russian submarines at sea at the moment from the Northern and Black sea fleet's at least 2 of these will be SSBN's the other is likely to be From the baltic and also Northern.



Very good report Kapitan ... the Russians won't pass up an opportunity to follow the Truman battle group into the Med ... they might even be waiting for the USN SSN's that precede this battle group on the other side of Gibraltar :yep:

https://pilotonline.com/news/military/local/article_b3894a5c-3da9-11e8-8e6c-4b6644a76b89.html

The aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman is the lead ship of the strike group, which also includes the guided missile cruiser USS Normandy and the guided missile destroyers of Destroyer Squadron 28: USS Arleigh Burke, USS Bulkeley, USS Forrest Sherman and Mayport, Fla.-based USS Farragut.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zcwxbFqpJn0

[mapuc]

I guess the US have send the Carrier group into the area "in case of"

A wonder about this Black Sea fleet.

If worse case scenario should happen and Russia decide to send some(I don't think they will send the entire Black Sea fleet).

Shall they not pass this strait(forgot it's name)to enter the Mediterranean Sea and isn't this strait is under the Turkish control ?

I have also noticed the war on disinformation have started. It started before but after the attack it exploded.

Markus

[Kapitan]

I guess the US have send the Carrier group into the area "in case of"

A wonder about this Black Sea fleet.

If worse case scenario should happen and Russia decide to send some(I don't think they will send the entire Black Sea fleet).

Shall they not pass this strait(forgot it's name)to enter the Mediterranean Sea and isn't this strait is under the Turkish control ?

I have also noticed the war on disinformation have started. It started before but after the attack it exploded.

Markus


The Bosporus is open at the moment to vessels of all flags in accordance to international law under freedom of navigation the Turkish Authorities cannot at the present time close the straight to Russian traffic

In terms of international treaties closing the straight could also be deemed an act of war / aggression should the Turks blockade the area it would trap the Black sea fleet in the Black sea but would also mean Turkish Forces would bear the brunt of the first wave of attacks (if they were to get involved and side with the USA etc etc)

The main bulk of heavy platforms are located in the Northern fleet, so once you see them on the move you know its going to be a big deal, at present i think they will send out a couple more submarines i would likely put money on the Oscar II's and another Akula class probably one of two Kilo's from the black sea, i also think if it got a bit more serious we would see some of the Baltic fleet link with the Northern and come down as a task group we would also sea Moskva come out to play as well.

Right now i think that possibly a Russian SSN is lurking in the STROG awaiting passing vessels and also keeping an Eye on Rota Spain for sailings.

At a guess the US will send in a couple more of submarines thats a for sure thing we will likely see submarines sail from Toloun France and at the moment there wont be any further UK deployment.

What i do know is the current laid up HMS Torbay has had her de fuel pushed back which would give the RN a spare usable SSN if needed, if this continues we could even see HMS Trenchant have her service life extended (due to decommission next year)


Do i think the Russians have something of a couple submarines in and around Spanish waters and STROG ? most certainly

[Rockstar]

I hope our banking institutions internet security is up to date.

[Rockstar]

Thinking about the fleet heading to Syria sort of reminds me of Lincoln's actions at Fort Sumter.

If he abandoned the fort, he jeopardized the Union by legitimizing the Confederacy...

However, if he could induce southerners to attack Sumter, "to assume the aggressive and thus put themselves in the wrong in the eyes of the North and of the world." By sending a relief expedition, ostensibly to provide bread to a hungry garrison, Lincoln turned the tables on the Confederates, forcing them to choose whether to permit the fort to be strengthened, or to act as the aggressor. By this "astute strategy," Lincoln maneuvered the South into firing the first shot."

http://www.tulane.edu/~sumter/Reflections/LinWar.html

[Mr Quatro]

I hope our banking institutions internet security is up to date.

before the strike I was thinking that, but it was so limited to empty research buildings that the Russians can't be that serious about starting a war over it.

Cyber warfare is another matter ... they could pull some dirty tricks there and blame Syria, but that's a long shot. :yep:

[Skybird]

The Bosporus is open at the moment to vessels of all flags in accordance to international law under freedom of navigation the Turkish Authorities cannot at the present time close the straight to Russian traffic

In terms of international treaties closing the straight could also be deemed an act of war / aggression should the Turks blockade the area it would trap the Black sea fleet in the Black sea but would also mean Turkish Forces would bear the brunt of the first wave of attacks (if they were to get involved and side with the USA etc etc)

The main bulk of heavy platforms are located in the Northern fleet, so once you see them on the move you know its going to be a big deal, at present i think they will send out a couple more submarines i would likely put money on the Oscar II's and another Akula class probably one of two Kilo's from the black sea, i also think if it got a bit more serious we would see some of the Baltic fleet link with the Northern and come down as a task group we would also sea Moskva come out to play as well.

Right now i think that possibly a Russian SSN is lurking in the STROG awaiting passing vessels and also keeping an Eye on Rota Spain for sailings.

At a guess the US will send in a couple more of submarines thats a for sure thing we will likely see submarines sail from Toloun France and at the moment there wont be any further UK deployment.

What i do know is the current laid up HMS Torbay has had her de fuel pushed back which would give the RN a spare usable SSN if needed, if this continues we could even see HMS Trenchant have her service life extended (due to decommission next year)


Do i think the Russians have something of a couple submarines in and around Spanish waters and STROG ? most certainly
The moment a Russian ship opens fire at a US Navy ship or plane, the Bosporus will be shut down by NATO, international treaties allowing it or not: it does not matter. Whether it will be the Turks or the Americans and Greek and Italians, it does not matter. And I assume not even the Turks will get asked about it. Drop mines with or without their permission. If engaged with the Russian navy, I have serious doubts that the heads of the US navy and air force would trust Turkey any longer. And that mistrust I would expand to many other NATO countries as well: Greece, Germany... Its a theatre company, in my opinion, not so much a wartime union, for parading during peacetime parties and the likes.

[Jimbuna]

Interesting to note that the OPCW inspectors still haven't been given access to Douma.

Must be taking longer for the Russians and Syrians to get rid of any incriminating evidence than they initially believed :hmmm:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-43783427

[Skybird]

Russian warship, a frigate it seems, and a transport have been spotted passing the Bosporus.

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/pictures-russia-ships-rarely-seen-military-equipment-to-syria-amid-ongoing-reinforcement-operation/

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5618609/Russian-ships-laden-tanks-seen-Bosphorus-en-route-Tartus-Syria-led-air-strikes.html

Wonderful thing, this international law. The bad boys dont care for it, and the other boys allow to get handicapped by it. No wonder that Iran and Russia now have the say in Syria, and all Western goals have vanished. Hope you like the outcome, all you good-doers.

The least thing we could have done was refusing to bend over voluntarily for the spanking. But hey, its the international law, thats holy, thats precious!

Wait until the RTussians have completed their goal to modenrise Syrian and Iranian air defences with latest S300 anbd S400 toyboxes and other good gimmicks. Then the real fun begins when Western air power will see being seriously hindered throughout the ME. Bush started the alienation that created the vacuum the Russian now pour into, and Obama widened the gap by his super-civilised good hope, appeal and wellmeaningness. And Trump just uses this prepared stage to boast with his ego (nd hgis Twitter account). American ME policies always have been a clueless mess, since always - but have they ever been as worse as in the past 15 years?

And the Europeans? - Don't get me started.

[Mr Quatro]

Wonderful thing, this international law. The bad boys dont care for it, and the other boys allow to get handicapped by it. No wonder that Iran and Russia now have the say in Syria, and all Western goals have vanished. Hope you like the outcome, all you good-doers.

The least thing we could have done was refusing to bend over voluntarily for the spanking. But hey, its the international law, thats holy, thats precious!


And the Europeans? - Don't get me started.

Isn't it wonderful that we have an international forum that can freely discuss international law leaning towards what we perceive to be right or wrong? :yep:

[Kapitan]

International law is put there for a reason and agreed and ratified by member states tossing it out the window could be detrimental when the dust settles.

Further more mining the Bosporus while tactically it makes sense but you are now risking harming neutral countries shipping and civilian lives in one of the busiest bottle necks in the world, secondly your also inside a nations sovereign territory laying offensive weapons without the permission of that government? you have just opened one big huge can of Whoop ass on a world stage.

It is precisely the reason why international laws were made like this to stop things like this happening, even if it is not palatable to the west.

Shall i tell you something else too? NATO article 5 guess what cannot be invoked in Syria Trump blew that one well out the water launching the strike NATO countries have already back off your own country Skybird stated they would not join in the strike now what does that tell you the EU's most powerful economic country says NO !

If you through the law books out of the window what is the whole point of the UN ? may as well disband it because if your undermining the laws that it makes why pay billions into it when it does nothing ?

The west didnt take the lead when this all kicked off Russia did and some how this is Russia's fault? sorry but lets just think for a moment who did the Syrians ask for help cause i dont remember the west getting an invite? further more you say the good boys get the handicap i don't think so the West have been guilty of also bending the same rules so sorry its tit for tat.

[Skybird]

So many reasons to act weak, and self-damaging, exposing one's own vulnerable flanks and allow the opponent/enemy to grow strong.

In case of mining the Bosporus, you release word to the world, and then any merchant thinking he must find out himself is running at his own risk. Its like airlines starting to avoid the Syrian air space hours, days before the missile strike got underway.

Always concerns, and doubts, and hesitations. This is why the West plays no role in syria - and many other crisis hotspots - anymore, and why the bad boys win.

And then we wonder...???

We are strangulating ourselves with our claimed civilizational superiority. And we believe any Russian lie and any doubt spread by russian agitators (not meaning you personally, Kapitain) and social media bots only because it allows us to maintain our illusions a bit longer and thinking that we must not act. Our practical acting is weak. And no moral claim and no international law does change that. Our practical acting is weak. Weakness is never a form of superiority, moral or practical. It does not enoble us. Weak is weak, and nothing else - never.

[Catfish]

Seems there is now some massive cyberattack, against England and the USA.

And i tell myself better now than in ten years, maybe some people now realize in time how vulnerable all this interconnected networking is, from power plants to basic support.


edit: seems we have been led by the nose by our (western) media. UK and US think about a cyber attack, so since the good guys only ever retaliate, there "must have been a russian attack" before, for justification. And we all believe that?
Hard to believe anyone anymore these days.

[Mr Quatro]

Seems there is now some massive cyberattack, against England and the USA.

And i tell myself better now than in ten years, maybe some people now realize in time how vulnerable all this interconnected networking is, from power plants to basic support.

Hard to believe anyone anymore these days.

I don't understand this attack ... all I saw was a scroll so far. I'll have to do more research ...

something about hacking servers instead of computers. I'm not that intel smart to understand.

[mapuc]

More thoughts

It did not come as a surprise, when I heard Russia is sending a few warship from their Black Sea fleet into the Mediterranean

About this Bosporus Strait

If, the worse thing should happen and a showdown between US and Russian warship take place

Will Turkey close the Strait or will they as Putin's new friend stay neutral ?

Markus

[Skybird]

Just one or two days ago Erdoghanistan made it clear that it does not follow Russian, Iranian, American or European policies and does not line up with any of these over Syria, but does its own Turkish policy.

No small statement for a claimed NATO member.

Ex-member, I say.

[Kapitan]

So many reasons to act weak, and self-damaging, exposing one's own vulnerable flanks and allow the opponent/enemy to grow strong.

In case of mining the Bosporus, you release word to the world, and then any merchant thinking he must find out himself is running at his own risk. Its like airlines starting to avoid the Syrian air space hours, days before the missile strike got underway.

Always concerns, and doubts, and hesitations. This is why the West plays no role in syria - and many other crisis hotspots - anymore, and why the bad boys win.

And then we wonder...???

We are strangulating ourselves with our claimed civilizational superiority. And we believe any Russian lie and any doubt spread by russian agitators (not meaning you personally, Kapitain) and social media bots only because it allows us to maintain our illusions a bit longer and thinking that we must not act. Our practical acting is weak. And no moral claim and no international law does change that. Our practical acting is weak. Weakness is never a form of superiority, moral or practical. It does not enoble us. Weak is weak, and nothing else - never.


Not taking it personally Skybird just making a counter argument based on something i see.

First off i don't support the gassing of Civilians it is needless and secondly both sides just need to come clean.

We were told that there were no UK boots on the ground in Syria that got blown up last Thursday if i recall with the death of a British Soldier in Syria so theres a lot that our government are hiding too.

All the air strikes i do believe are co ordinate to avoid the Loss of Russian lives and equipment and vice versa and that the blustering is for show.

Do i support the west's involvement in Syria no i don't, we are there un invited unwelcome and un wanted we have had our fingers burnt many times in the past and we still do not learn.

As for the legal standing with your favorite topic skybird international law states clearly under the UN charters " it does not support regime change" its quite funny really how we the west back doored this in Iraq, Libya and now trying to do the same in Syria.
So by technicality of law Russia by supporting the regime isn't breaking any protocols and is infact in supoort of the international law, it is we the west that by supporting the non governing or recognized rebels breaking international law.

I take Russian media with a pinch of salt i know it is state run it is there for the sole purpose to make Putin look good.

As for laying mines in the Bosporus i reiterate the fact you just open a big can of whoop ass on the world stage what matters in this day and age is public opinion could you imagine if the USA mines the straight and a cruise ship in transit hit one? the fall out would not be so good because you just handed Russia a golden key to prove to the world the west don't care who they kill.

As much as we are indifferent to Turkey right now we need them like it or not, Turkey is moving towards Russia for a reason and Russia has boots on the ground in Syria the reason we don't is because of public opinion.

I think the way forward is to stop waving our D***s around sit down with Russia and say ok we don't like Assad but he is legitimately the ruler of Syria lets work together on ISIS and get rid of them i think working together would make it happen faster and save money.

We did it in Afghanistan & Bosnia so why not do it here?

[Skybird]

Kapitan,

I am against us messing around there, too, but I aolso point out and find it ridiculous that while we lack clearly defined own objectives we nevertheless get our hands dirty for show, then lament that we should not get our hands too dfirty, next demand another side having very clear objctives to abandon its objectives, and... well, I stop here. Its an endless chain of self-contradictions. Essentially we make idiots of ourselves down there - and by that we helped to extend the war.

All our assistance to the opposition in past years only extended the war, but did not turn the tide. The russians have their huge share of guilt, but this is ours: to extend the war while at the same time from all beginning on shying away from going all the way so that we made sure we cannot win. And what would we have had to win down there in the first? Bringing arch-fundamentalist radicals to power?

The Israelis act the most reasonable in all these years. They strike without remorse where Iran threatens their vital survival interests by bolstering Hezbollah in Syria, and they said from all beginning on they prefer Assad - for he was predictable in good and bad and they knew how to deal with him. Plus they had the military, still, to handle him.

And we in Europe had nthign ebtter to do then to criticise them, and Washington had nothing better to do to aienate them and to know it all better. And so the Donald had his firework show effect, making America great again. And doing NOTHING to the standings in Syria.

We have made complete idiots of ourselves, all of us. Germany, the EU, Britain, France, Washington. We all behave like total idiots down there. Now they say its the hour of "diplomacy" again. Muhahahahahahaha! We want it all, and have no clue how to realistically get there.

Idiots. Clueless, dumb idiots. We should have stayed out of the way. And Obama should never have painted a red line and then ignoring it when Assad overstepped it.

Its not even an opportunity to realistically conduct missile tests, sinc ehte strike conditions was negotiated with the Russians and the Russians did not unleash their ECM capabilities. These missile drills from few days ago tell us almost nothing.

What. A. Waste.

[Mr Quatro]

Just one or two days ago Erdoghanistan made it clear that it does not follow Russian, Iranian, American or European policies and does not line up with any of these over Syria, but does its own Turkish policy.

No small statement for a claimed NATO member.

Ex-member, I say.

You might be right Sky :o

America’s Fling With the Kurds Could Cause Turkey and NATO to Split

Critics are alarmed by Ankara's turn toward Russia and "who lost Turkey" talk is in the air.

By MARK PERRY • April 16, 2018

http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/americas-fling-with-the-kurds-could-cause-turkey-and-nato-to-split/


Turkey had inked a 2016 agreement with the EU that, in exchange for closer ties to their Western European counterparts (and just over $8 billion), it would harbor some 3 million Syrian refugees who have fled Syria. If Turkey feels it is being ignored, Scaparrotti undoubtedly suggested, those refugees could end up on the streets of Hamburg.

[mapuc]

You might be right Sky :o

America’s Fling With the Kurds Could Cause Turkey and NATO to Split

Critics are alarmed by Ankara's turn toward Russia and "who lost Turkey" talk is in the air.

By MARK PERRY • April 16, 2018

http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/americas-fling-with-the-kurds-could-cause-turkey-and-nato-to-split/

That's why I wrote on this page
"Will Turkey close the Strait or will they as Putin's new friend stay neutral ?

I had this friendships between Russia and Turkey in my mind

Markus

[Skybird]

You might be right Sky :o

America’s Fling With the Kurds Could Cause Turkey and NATO to Split

Critics are alarmed by Ankara's turn toward Russia and "who lost Turkey" talk is in the air.

By MARK PERRY • April 16, 2018

http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/americas-fling-with-the-kurds-could-cause-turkey-and-nato-to-split/
I think no other Germna chancellor before has led Germany so deep into so many new vulnerabilties and dependencies, like former FdJ-propaganda expert Angela Merkel. Turkey is just one of so many. Considering that so often she has broken EU treaties, laws, the German Basic Law and international obligations, Merkel's acting oversteps the red line to high treason, in my book. Damn FdJ girlie. Most youngsters in the GDR, almost all, were in the FdJ, for pure pragmatism - but Merkel was making a voluntary career in it. If the wall would not have fallen, she now would be a big fat master cat in the SED polit bureau.

[Dowly]

Israeli intelligence reportedly says Trump's Syria strike failed, didn't take out much of anything (http://www.businessinsider.com/israeli-intelligence-trump-syria-strike-failed-2018-4?r=US&IR=T&IR=T)


"If President Trump had ordered the strike only to show that the US responded to [Syrian President Bashar] Assad's use of chemical weapons, then that goal has been achieved," a senior defense official told Israel's Ynet News. "But if there was another objective — such as paralyzing the ability to launch chemical weapons or deterring Assad from using it again — it's doubtful any of these objectives have been met."

An intelligence officer who talked to Ynet wasn't as forgiving.

"The statement of 'Mission Accomplished' and (the assertion) that Assad's ability to use chemical weapons has been fatally hit has no basis," the source said, likely referring to a recent tweet from President Donald Trump.

[Skybird]

^ Quelle surprise!

I would have been surprised if anybody produces substantial, undeniable evidence for that "strike" having had a real significant change, result, effect, whatever.

The Donald can perform at a Casino in Vegas with that showact: lots of bright lights and loud sounds. Play that old Top Gun hit "Into the danger zone" to it, and ready is the new hotel stage attraction! And so many lots of groupies he can grab!

[Jimbuna]

Hardly surprising when you take into consideration advance notice of the strike was given.

[Skybird]

More reports on the doubts. The plot thickens.

https://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-5232786,00.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/14/us/politics/syria-chemical-weapons-analysis.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection% 2Fmiddleeast&action=click&contentCollection=middleeast&region=stream&module=stream_unit&version=latest&contentPlacement=9&pgtype=sectionfront

No deaths reported. No leakages reported. Struck targets on UN observation list since long. Carrier platforms of Syrian air forc enot hit. Even die-hard fans of the Donald must find it hard to still believe that their idol has acchieved anything here that goes beyond blinding the chicks in his VIP lounge.

[Bilge_Rat]

Skybird, as usual, you are missing the point:



Majority of Americans support Syrian strikes: Poll

The Politico/Morning Consult poll showed that while 58 per cent of the voters supported the strikes, only 23 per cent opposed them.

Another 19 per cent of the voters surveyed in the three days after the strikes had no opinion.

Republican voters were most supportive of the military action: 77 per cent of the Republicans supported it compared to 49 per cent of the Democrats. Half of independents backed the strikes, versus 26 per cent who opposed.

Despite support for the airstrikes, only 8 per cent of the voters said they were "very confident" that the US and its allies would prevent Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's government from using chemical or biological weapons again.

"Democrats and Republicans have drastically different views on whether ongoing scandals played a role in President Trump's decision to conduct airstrikes in Syria," said Kyle Dropp, co-founder of Morning Consult, a media company.

"Notably, 65 per cent of Democrats say the President's recent controversies were a major or minor factor in his decision to conduct airstrikes, compared with only 28 per cent of Republicans."

The Politico/Morning Consult poll surveyed 1,995 registered voters from April 14 to Monday.



https://bdnews24.com/world/2018/04/18/majority-of-americans-support-syrian-strikes-poll

[Skybird]

^ What has that to do with the contradiction of the Donald describing the strikes as a great success - thats what he sells them as to the population and to the world - while truth seems to be that they did not do anything damaging to Assad's regime at all? And probably never were designed to do anythign damaging at all?

They did not fail indeed. They did exactly what they were designed and planned to do: nothing. In acchieving this nothingness, they indeed were highly successful - mission accomplished! :yeah:

Only fools applaude this charade.