Iran the next Syria ?

[mapuc]

When hearing and reading about these demonstration which are going on in some of the biggest cities in Iran, I seem to recall that it also began as big demonstration in most of the Syrian cities.

Or is it so, that Iran is not Syria and therefore comparing the demonstration in Iran with the demonstration that startet it all in Syria, is not correct ?

Markus

[Catfish]

:hmmm: The protests are not as widespread as in 2009, at least not yet.

http://edition.cnn.com/2018/01/01/world/iran-protests-deaths-rouhani-intl/index.html

"- Rouhani called out Donald Trump on Monday after a series of tweets from the US President in support of the protests.
:hmmm:

- Russia weighed in Monday, saying the demonstrations are an "internal affair" for Iran and external interference is unacceptable.
:03: It is clear that any protest in any country is always being led by powers from abroad (see Turkey :haha: )

- US Vice President Mike Pence tweeted support for protesters Monday, saying "We will not let them down."
:haha: yeah sure. Like before.

[MaDef]

I'm with Russia on this, It's an Iranian problem, let them deal with it.

[Catfish]

I'm with Russia on this, It's an Iranian problem, let them deal with it.

You mean, like Syriah? :03:

[em2nought]

I've always hoped that if anything they'd be the next Japan. :arrgh!:

[MaDef]

You mean, like Syriah? :03:Yep, Obama screwed the pooch on that one, just like he did with Libya.

[Skybird]

During the youth rebellion in Iran in the 90s, I was there, for some longer time in the whole region, twice in Iran for longer stays.

I know from first hand experience that the Western, especially the American expectation that the young wanted a free liberal democracy accpridng to US or European exmape, was hopelessly misled, was wrong. What they wanted, was an easing of the mullah'S tight control of media access, the new digital media and internet which at that time started to thrive with all those new possibilities the internet brought, they wanted easier freedom to travel - and they nevertheless wanted an Islam-based republic. When the latter fact became realised in the West and especially in Washington, sympathising with the young Iranians immediately dropped, interest shifted away, and the mullahs found it easier to crack down on the revolt without getting called out too loud.

I have no more contact sto colleagues and buddies back from those days, or contacts I had in those places, its all a dead game now and seems to me like a life of somebody else that was not me. However, I have a feeling that the mistake of misperceiving what the youth revolt now is about, again gets misperceived here in the West.

They may want to go after the mullah, and especially the hard regime by the Republican Guards which have been transformed into the regme iron fist by which to grab and strngle, or crack down on the opposiiton and any counter-revolutionary criticism. But already 25 years ago there was strong sympathy with the idea of not getting a Western democracy, which is seen by most Iranians as weak, un-Islamic and unattractive, but going back to a monarchic regime. In those that is a few reports in the media today there are brief notes on that calls for the shah are to be heard. From the little input we get on that via the media, it seesm to me that this time the demand for a revitalization of a monarchy to replace the mullah's regime is much louder, more intense.

One mistake should not be made once again, for the third time now (its the third youth uprise since the 90s): nobody should seriousl beleive this is about wanting to get a democracy of Western style, and nobody should assume they want Islam not to be the fundament of the constitution: this lesson i have learned. They want the benefits of the new media and travel freedoms - without the - as they see it - rotten cultural side-effects of Western democracies.

This is no fight for democracy, but very likely for a more or less benevolent monarchy basing on an Islamic constitution. Seen this way, the West indeed should stay out and leave them to sorting their businesses all alone. Some may say a new Shah regime would be preferrable to the mullah regime. I would be careful with such an assessment.

We have no horse in this race. Stay out. And don't tell Iranians what you think is best for them. They react allergic to being told what you think they should do. Anothe rlesson I have learned from being there. My experiences in Iran were the best I made in any Muslim country, but they also are extremely diverse. While some were very good, and warm, some also were such that I will always stay on my guard.

[Red Devil]

I think you will find the same culprits responsible for all the ME chaos, now starting in Iran. Deliberate destabilisation of the region by 2 sources. Soros and Saudi Arabia. Both of whom have made hefty contributions to the Clinton Foundation. Strange is'nt it - not a single voice of discord in Saudi, and yet it is the most brutal of all the ME governments. I suspect jordan will start soon. This is all deliberate - believe me.

[kraznyi_oktjabr]

I think you will find the same culprits responsible for all the ME chaos, now starting in Iran. Deliberate destabilisation of the region by 2 sources. Soros and Saudi Arabia. Both of whom have made hefty contributions to the Clinton Foundation. Strange is'nt it - not a single voice of discord in Saudi, and yet it is the most brutal of all the ME governments. I suspect jordan will start soon. This is all deliberate - believe me.I may believe you but only after inspecting your evidence. Could you provide links to your sources?

[Skybird]

While the Saudis certainly will try their share of making good use of this opportunity, the reaosns for these riots are deeper rooting, and last since much longer already. Rouhani, the current president, was seen as a reformer (I warned against doing so, didn't I, like I also warned that he nevertheless also wants the bomb) who would bring change and easing of state authority after the years of Ahmadinejad. He was voted for the expectations that more freedoms from mullahs' reign and a deal with the West over the bomb program resulting in economic and joblessness improvement would be realised by Rouhani. But the ongoing conflict with the US and their own limited options prevented economic improvement, and the old man in the background who really holds all power in Iran, Khamenei, and holds that power undisputed and without any counter-control, refused to allow reforms threatning his omnipotent power claims and the dominance of the mullahs.

This third time of seeing their expectations disappointed is what most likely drives the young people onto the streets. Soros, or any other conspiration theory, have little to do with that. It goes back to the early nineties.

[Catfish]

I was never in Iran, but i know a lot of people who came here to study, and do not want to go back ever. Which is also a reason why the situation in Iran does not improve so much.

But demonstrations in Iran wanting a clerical regime with a bit of more luxury like internet etc. is not true. The demonstrations were indeed initially started by followers of conservative religious leader Khameini, to battle against reformer Rouhani who's actions are not liked by the conservative regime; but they did not see the result coming. People are now not only for more reforms, they now directly demonstrate against Khameini and his dictatorship as they directly call it, they want an iranian republic, not an islamic legislation or clerical rulership.

"Keep out, it's their problem." Yes, maybe. We can of course let the Russians have their game, as in Syriah. But just of all this time i think Trump may be right.. :hmmm:

Regarding blaming all on Obama, please.. look at what the oil industry coupled with national interests of England and the US did in just of all in this region decades ago. Like with Palestine and Israel one might say.. broken promises.. think of the Shah's inthronisation in Persia/Iran and his dictatorship under western influence, the torturing and suppression; the roots of hate are much deeper. Islamic dictators use the past to create hate in the people of today, and it is no wonder this falls on fertile ground.

Obama had tried, maybe naive, to extend a hand to the islamic world, trying to create a basis for pacifying the Middle East and ease the general situation, deal with hate and start a dialogue.
For a lot of Americans it was a confession of guilt, and thus Obama was a "traitor". He of course was not, he just dared to speak out what is well known, if not expressed publicly.
For the Middle East they just did not believe an american president whatever the name or political side after decades of being fooled by the US, and their interventions. And after Obama is gone, its seems they are right.

First England and then the US have gradually stepped back from intervening. Bush started it, then Obama, and now Trump was thought of isolating America even more, and retreat completely. It looks different now, but then it's only tweets, no action.

There will be no peace until the "West" takes responsibility for its actions in the past. Obama was much too early, if it ever will happen at all. The alternative is the status quo with all battling all and.. cheap oil ;)

[mapuc]

I understand that there is a different in the demonstration in Syria and Iran. While the demonstrators in Syria wanted democracy the demonstrator in Iran want something different.

And if my memory doesn't play tricks on me....Assad used his military to hit hard on his people already after less than a week or so.

As some of you mentioned, there is a possibility that Saudi-Arabia and other countries in the area could take benefit if it escalate.

Markus

[Skybird]

I was never in Iran, but i know a lot of people who came here to study, and do not want to go back ever. Which is also a reason why the situation in Iran does not improve so much.

But demonstrations in Iran wanting a clerical regime with a bit of more luxury like internet etc. is not true.
I said that with regards to the unrests in the nineties. And I was there. I stood in the thick middle of it, several times, in the streets, with our team (and no, we never got threatened by demonstrators from the moment on they realised we were no Americans, the only ones we really evaded and had to be on our guard against, where the Republican Guards, these guys are fanatics, and that makes them very dangerous and arbitrary. RG around had me always tipping my boss on his shoulder and telling him: "lets get out"). For months. Protests today indeed can have slightly different causes, and I described that scenario which seems to be most likely to me: three times disappointement (90s, 2009, present), and a growing call for monarchy. The conflict between Khamenei and Rouhani may have added to that, but it is not forming the fundament of this conflict, Khamenei just makes use of the opportunity and spills oil into the fire. The first incarnation of this conflict we have seen already in the nineties.


"Keep out, it's their problem." Yes, maybe. We can of course let the Russians have their game, as in Syriah. But just of all this time i think Trump may be right.. :hmmm:I recommended to stay out because the goals of those now protesting nevertheless must not be in our interest. A new Shah, as loosened mullah republic, or the stazius quo: none of that is positive for us, and all of that nevertheless confrotns us with an Irna wanting the nuclear bomb and accelerating a nuc lear arms race in the region. Also, the clash between Sunni and Shia leaders to represent Islam to the world and be guardians of the holy places will continue, no matter what kind of Iran will result. And Turkey as the third major power claiming that role for itself doe snot make it any simplier. Why should we send our horses into a race with mines and and traps if we have nothign to win?

I learned to know the Iranian mentality of those living there a bit. I tell you, most of them want their old or new republic basing on a Shariah-based constitution. Like true Islam never was dead in now fallen Kemalistic Turkey, just had slept. It never had gone away in those decades. The same basic sentiment in faovur of conervative - mainstream! - Islam you have in Iran, Iraq, Egypt, Libya, Marocco, Tunesia. Joran sometimes seems to be an eception from this rule, but that is a fsata morgana only, because of the delicate handling by the royal house and the highly effective Jordanian secret service. In Jordan, you have a strong mainstream conservatism as well. It just is in hiding a bit, currently.

Regarding blaming all on Obama, please.That must adress soembody else, I did not even mention Obama.

Westerners really must stop thinking the Islamic world is just waiting for jumping on the train of Westernization. They want the techncial and industrial benefits of the West, but without changing the cultural fundaments of their view of the world order. The global mainstream Islam by overwhelming majority is - conservative, orthodox Islam.

One really has to learn from the exmaples of West-oriented Kemal Attaturk and west-oriented Reza Pahlavi, also Mubarak' case and fall in Egypt. They never had a chance to really make a lasting change to their countries.

[Skybird]

I understand that there is a different in the demonstration in Syria and Iran. While the demonstrators in Syria wanted democracy
I would not be so sure abiout that. There are over 500 factions and militias fighting. And absolutely the most of them are either Assad's people, or by Western terminology from before the war would have been described as "Islamic fundamentalists".

Why is it that so many Westerners most naturally imply those people all are just waiting to introduce Western style democracy in their countries? Its not like that. They may even often use these terms - but they mean something very different by them. Western style democracy is not the navel of the universe, not does even just the sun revolves around it... Globally, it'sd importance is in retreat. Since years.

[ikalugin]

It isn't like SA is not buying up new offensive weapons in the greater ME fight for power.

In addition to it's Chinese made ballistic missiles and Western airpower, they were funding Ukrainian companies to develop newer/more capable weapons.

Video related:
https://youtu.be/b6yFilFGHCc