Anyone here invest in stocks?

[Wildcat]

What's your method, what are your favorite stocks, and how did you learn the market?

I basically have 3 "mentors" - Benjamin Graham, Warren Buffett and Peter Lynch. I use a combination of value and value-growth investing.

My favorite stocks (no particular names) are companies that produce or handle primarily a single product or service that relates to a single or several related products, have few rivals and that have share prices below what the company value is worth.

I tend to watch undervalued companies closely to avoid getting sucked into value traps but buy in when losses start creeping closer to profits, or when profits start to go up after management changes. I buy with intent to hold for years at a time and check up on the stocks every few months at the quarterly reports and don't generally worry about sinking prices unless the reports start to show that the company's book value is significantly changing for the worse.

I trade on the US, Canada, HK and Japanese markets.

What about you guys?

[Skybird]

I did, and for very good profit in the past, but I meanwhile have completely withdrawn my assets from the paper market and vulnerabilities of mobile/online banking businesses (the only realistic way, more or less, in Germany to pick single stocks instead of needing to buy complete fonds and packages where a bank want to sell you some bonbons packed in plenty of toxic waste.

Graham is a basis, yes, but I recommend also the biography about Guy Spear to learn a bit about the rotten morals in today's business and how to do these things maybe better without needing to sell your soul. I personally based on Austrian economics school, which of course is the basis and quite close to socalled value investing. John Mihaljevic also is a good name to read. But best is to learn to get a thorough understanding of the reasons so called Austrian economics are basing on.

I do not discuss for priciple reasons specific tasks, brands, companies, stocks in public.

However, a warning, that is why I have pulled out and went from "investing" to "securing". Any investment strategy is the condensate of empirical experiences from the past. Any advise formulated on grounds of such investment strategies bases on the preassumption that the environment and the conditions that define it and in which past experiences formed up and repeated themselves, is still intact. And this is what I doubt. Our raping of the profound fundament for a reasonable monetarian system, our idea of money, has led us to a situation where the trusting into rules of the pastr more and more is not reasonably justified, but takes the character of mere gambles, of kick and rush. We base on rules of advise there that were valid for the eocnomic world of the past decades, but that is not like that anymore, but troubling sick and tottering. Possible that if somewobdy buys sticks today, he gets away with it, and makes a good profit still. But also possible that despite the good reasons he had to buy these and noi other stocks, the monetarian distortions will all of a sudden erupt, and render the basis for the advise he trusted in as pointless. You canbot formulate trustworthy confgidence assessments there anymore - and that is what makes it so unpredictable nowadays. There is too much money in the system , by severla factors porbbaly, this money is only credit for which no securities exist, and the reuslt is that people with money desperately went into real assetts and "safe" investments that as a consequences became hopelessly overvalued.

This is no healthy situation. And thus I activated the emergency brake and pulled out. The show could run on for another 5 or 10 years. Or just 6 months, or may collapse already next week - I do not dare any predictions there anymore, took what I had, and transformed it into value formats of which I hope they will survive the coming cataclysm, and which are independent from paper money "value". I am responsible just for myself and have no own family, and assessed that I had enough "money" to hold out in the future and at higher age, and this is now what I try to protect.

If the criminal syndicates called states however change laws and play their enslaving criminal gangster games, this could then turn my decision into a mess. The worst gangster there is in the world, is the state.

The point is there are no more reasonable risk assessments and calculations possible anymore today, and there are no ore reaosnably safe oiptions left. They have turned the general system environment into such a messy mess that everything nowadays is a maximum risk for investors, savers, or whomever.

And this is what makes this all such a monumental, bloody crime. There are no safe otpions anymore, and no advise and rules form the past that can be trusted anymore. You need to accept gambling. And that is the opposite of investing.

Those index fonds and ETFs everybody speaks of, will become one of the major warheads impacting on the markets ooner or later, right because they are what they are. The inner dynamic and self-automatization these things include and cause on the stock market, does not get correctly understood and assessed. The more people buy these things, the more dangerous they become, and the more instabile the situation becomes.

I do not want to be young again in these years. The generation after the war had it much, much easier.

Investing on grounds of Austrian economics means that you run the risk of of bailling out too early, and going in too late. This is an implicit characteristic, yes. One has to weigh this against the incalculatable and unforseeable risks today's market environment necessarily present. You may loose a little, but increase your chances to not get hit by the big blow. State debts are higher than ever before, paper money is more useless than ever before, the crisis is worse than ever before. As you can conclude from all what I said here, I recommend maximum caution and a very defensive approach nowadays. Be careful. The makret environment is not as safe and stable anymore as past investment rules depend on in order to be trustworthy. In other words: the old virtues and tips and advice may not be as useful anymore as books make you think. Its very risky ground now. Thanks to paper money wars.

[Jimbuna]

I invested for many years in the past with some some considerable success if I say so myself but in the latter years I looked to consolidate my gains and went for those who gave above average share dividends.

I'm now fast approaching sixty years of age so have switched all my investments into guaranteed fixed interest accounts, the returns are lower but the guarantee is of paramount importance and you also have here in the UK the 85k per institution guarantee underwritten by the FSCS (Financial Services Compensation Scheme).

[Skybird]

you also have here in the UK the 85k per institution guarantee underwritten by the FSCS (Financial Services Compensation Scheme).
If that is what in German would be called "Einlagensicherung", then keep on mind before you put all your trust into that that Merkel some years ago, when the symptoms of the crisis hit the fan after 2007/2008, told the Germans that all their private savings' safety were to be guaranteed by the state. It meanwhile got amditted that she lied, of course. The state cannot guarantee that in case there is a bank run, the safeties are enough only to pay out less than 2% of the savings on private banking accounts. In principle that is not different in any other country.

Money reforms and money devaluation not even considered.

Too many debts, too many interests services. The situation has degenerated beyond being hopeless. The world will not get out of this without a major shakeup. All credits go to the FIAT money system.

[Aktungbby]

^YEAH that! I learned at my dad's knee and he also was into commodities. I still use his broker. Three years ago I rolled a bunch of Oil, Coca cola, Heinz, GM, tobacco, and other long time held family stuff into long, middle, and short-term very reliable mutual funds as an 'in-kind transfer' to avoid taxes. Essentially 'fire and keep-a-light-eye' into the hands of my wife's own 'deferred comp' retirement investment counselor. He was for aggressive acquisition but I nixed in favor of extremely conservative 5-7% growth with no headaches ....please. In my sixties, as Jimbuna points out, is a key decision maker. The objective is actually not for me but for heirs to the estate:O: at this point. I 've done in-house security in day-trading rooms in brokerages and wasn't impressed with the life style. I read the Wall Street Journal every day(info thus always a day late:timeout:) and, as the OP indicates, follow the lead of mentor Warren Buffet who is heavy in B of A, Wells Fargo, airlines, and oil at present. His Berkshire Hathaway stock: Berkshire Hathaway Inc. is an American (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States)multinational (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multinational_corporation)conglomerate (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conglomerate_(company))holding company (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holding_company) headquartered in Omaha (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Omaha,_Nebraska), Nebraska (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nebraska), United States (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States). The company wholly owns GEICO (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GEICO), BNSF Railway (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BNSF_Railway), Lubrizol (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lubrizol), Fruit of the Loom (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fruit_of_the_Loom), Helzberg Diamonds (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helzberg_Diamonds), FlightSafety International (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FlightSafety_International), Pampered Chef (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pampered_Chef), and NetJets (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NetJets), and also owns 26.7% of the Kraft Heinz Company (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kraft_Heinz_Company), and significant minority holdings in American Express (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Express) (17.0%), The Coca-Cola Company (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Coca-Cola_Company) (9.4%), Wells Fargo (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wells_Fargo) (9.9%), IBM (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IBM) (6.9%) and Apple (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apple_Inc.) (2.5%).[2] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berkshire_Hathaway#cite_note-2) Since 2016, the company has acquired large holdings in the major US airline carriers and is currently the largest shareholder in United Airlines (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Airlines) and Delta Air Lines (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delta_Air_Lines) and a top 3 shareholder in Southwest Airlines (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southwest_Airlines) and American Airlines (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Airlines). Berkshire Hathaway has averaged an annual growth in book value of 19.0% to its shareholders since 1965 (compared to 9.7% from the S&P 500 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500) with dividends included.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warren_Buffett (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warren_Buffett) Very tempting rate of return: but at more than $240 K per single share, way too much to tie up in a single place portfolio-wise for oldie me. Better just to watch and consider; the more so as Mr. Buffett is 86 years old and I consider that his passing will have an deleterious effect on his stock's otherwise superb value....:o :wah: My primary financial goals: don't starve, keep the house up, and keep up my:subsim: contribution!:Kaleun_Party:

[Jimbuna]

If that is what in German would be called "Einlagensicherung", then keep on mind before you put all your trust into that that Merkel some years ago, when the symptoms of the crisis hit the fan after 2007/2008, told the Germans that all their private savings' safety were to be guaranteed by the state. It meanwhile got amditted that she lied, of course. The state cannot guarantee that in case there is a bank run, the safeties are enough only to pay out less than 2% of the savings on private banking accounts. In principle that is not different in any other country.

Money reforms and money devaluation not even considered.

Too many debts, too many interests services. The situation has degenerated beyond being hopeless. The world will not get out of this without a major shakeup. All credits go to the FIAT money system.

Information on the UK FSCS here Sky:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_Services_Compensation_Scheme

[Skybird]

I see, and what I talked about in Germany and other countries, is this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deposit_insurance The principle base question in both models is the same: to what degree can such a guarantee finance financial collapse of other institutions, or the system. Obviously the reach is limited in case of a bank run. Safeties like this help if just one bank falls, or one investment company. If the whole system is at risk, than Sayonara. And that is a very real danger. FIAT money. Its brain cancer, bone cancer, blood cancer and pancreas cancer all in one.

[Aktungbby]

Information on the UK FSCS here Sky:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_Services_Compensation_Scheme NONSENSE!:D We know the truth Jimbuna:Kaleun_Salivating:: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_banks_in_Guernsey (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_banks_in_Guernsey) In this day and age, a little 'off shore' banking is utterly necessary to one's fiduciary desmene; away from the perils of the all-seeing all-grabby neo-socialist state!:O: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/51/Channel_islands_location.png/260px-Channel_islands_location.png (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Channel_islands_location.png) As for me... alas none of my offspring travel about on ships to be my courier:wah:! https://www.sovereignman.com/offshore-bank-account/ (https://www.sovereignman.com/offshore-bank-account/) ...<My only hope before moving to Costa Rica! :doh: No wonder my 'Colon' aches: https://www.mataf.net/en/currency/converter-USD-CRC?m1=100 (https://www.mataf.net/en/currency/converter-USD-CRC?m1=100)

[Platapus]

I am not smart enough to play the stock market. I have been happy with my mutual funds.

[Aktungbby]

I am not smart enough to play the stock market. I have been happy with my mutual funds.

Precisely!:agree::sign_yeah:

[Wildcat]

Platapus, mutual funds are stocks! They are just collections of various stocks picked by whoever is managing the fund. That is why I like Peter Lynch's books so much, he did quite well as a fund manager for 13 years.

Skybird, I understand your reservations about putting too much money in the markets. I am not sure of the state of the German markets right now, but when I look at the US markets I see a different picture from what we had in 2008 and 2000 during the dotcom bust.

One of the big things about the dotcom bust was a swelling of the Nasdaq but when you combined the book values or revenues of the companies they were nowhere near the Nasdaq average price.

This time around though, book values are pretty much in line with the average. The Dow/S&P/Nasdaq are all trading pretty high compared to book values but not crazily so. Typical bull market. I'm just waiting around for the next "market correction" as Lynch calls them, before I buy into big stocks like Amazon, Apple, Tesla, Google etc.

I feel nervous when I look at those big names - not because I worry about a market crash, but I worry that the stocks are going to split before I get a chance to buy them - that'd be a real wasted opportunity. But I do think we're overdue for a market decline and I'm not a fan of buying stocks at peak prices. Rumors abound about google's stock splitting this year which would be wonderful for my financial future but at this point if the market started going down I'd probably just end up with two cheaper stocks that would decline to the same price the single stock will if the market cools off later this year or next year.

I like watching gold miners as well, but bitcoin and etherium present a strange new complexity. In the past people went to gold as their emergency backup "investment" but these days, especially the Chinese, are grabbing bitcoins in an attempt to get their money out of the country. I wonder how it's going to mess with the price of gold the next time the US markets dip.

Anybody dabble in futures? Corn seems to have some promise considering current global corn stocks are at a low we haven't seen in about a decade.

[Wildcat]

I thought I'd also mention, I don't think Buffett made a good move on the airline stock purchases. I'm not Warren Buffett but I do have some inside experience in the airlines. There are just way too many potential problems that could kill the share prices.

I'm sure in the very long term they will mostly be profitable, but so long as there is more than one carrier in the US, any one of them is susceptible to bankruptcy in the case of another terror attack that curbs air travel, and they're all very susceptible to a rise in oil prices. Airlines with a heavy Airbus fleet are also at risk for USD/EUR fluctuations both for new jets and parts/service contracts from Airbus. The government won't let the last 1 or 2 major airlines go bankrupt - too big to fail as they call those companies - but the first 3 or 4 that bite the dust will be left hanging in the wind by the government.

If I were Buffett I would have invested in all the industries that support the airlines and jet makers but probably would have avoided the airlines themselves to curb the risk. Lot of partners of GE that have a guaranteed future because of their involvement in producing engine parts for example, and many of the companies are spread around different world markets which is another safety buffer.

I guess he likes thinking about infrastructure and ultra-long term these days, what with his railroad purchase and all.

[Platapus]

Platapus, mutual funds are stocks! They are just collections of various stocks picked by whoever is managing the fund.

Exactly! I have much more confidence in someone else managing the portfolio than if I were to manage it.

It is smart to hire someone smarter than yourself. :up:

[Eichhörnchen]

I'd like to see STEED in the stocks

[fireftr18]

I have some stocks of major companies. I just let them ride and have the dividends turn over into more stock. I do primarily mutual funds with a mix of conservative, aggressive, and neutral. I haven't been investing lately and they are making large gains.

[Skybird]

Most brokers cannot keep up with the performances of unmanaged ETFs. I would not make it a general rule that brokers and stock managers are smarter. They have better and faster accessto information. Yes. But they do not translate that into better profits, mostly. Most are not Warren Buffet.

Buffet himself leaves no good hair on managed fonds, and explicitly recommends to go for ETFs. He says managed fonds only serve the income interest of the managers.

Also, Buffet is no god. He is a man. And an old man - who formed his knowledge in an environment that is no more like it used to be.

I would not trust soembody of whose profession I have no basic clue of - he can tell me just everything then, like a bank and insurrance salesman. why should I trust him? Just recall for a moment how man people have been ruined and sent into the dumps just because they blindly trusted the "experts", the advisers, the bankers? Many of these experts do not think outside the wrong paradigmm becasue it is right this wrong, damaging paradigm that keeps their personal income up. See here:

http://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showthread.php?t=232441

Wildcat, my criticism goes to a much more profound level than just assessing the balance between real corporate value, and their assessment by the stock exchange market. The problem, as described already often before, is that we do not even have any money worth the name.

But I consider the stock market to be overheated in general, too. People desperately look at options where to save their money from the plundering statte and the expropriating central banks. And that drives up prices for assets and stocks.

Do not trust the experts, they all are creatures of the existing paradigm and system and will never dare to think outside of it, since it feeds them and keeps them well. At your cost all too often. Instead, sit down and spend some time on educatign yourself on the basics of monetarian systems, currency tokens and economics in general (somethign where schools and even universities miserably fail in).

Best advise for stock trading: never do something you do not fully understand, never buy when somebody urges you to buy it, and never sell the stocks that somebody presses you to sell. Stay away from state bonds and pension fonds, stay away from "financial products" you do not understand or that base just on earlier stages of merely imagined but not materialised wealth. And never think you can outsmart the market - they are just quicker and faster reacting than you as a private man can ever be.

Finally: be increasingly sceptical about the valdity of old rules. As I said, the environment that formed them and set them up, seems to fall apart.

On gold, that is good but only when you understand what you do and why. Gold and precious metals are no investment, they are a safety. That is somethign different, and your motivation for or against that should reflect that. If you buy gold to collect future profits, you do not invest, but simply gamble.

Finally: paper gold and physical gold are two very different things and have surprisingly little to do with each other!!! Less than 2% of the new gold entering the market trading every year, indeed is newly mined gold, the rest is old gold that just gets sold by its former owner !! We talk about 98% of the "new" gold being recycled old gold only. That puts the importance of mining policies and whether mines open or close, a bit into relation, don't you think? The influence of this on the gold price, can be ignored. Also, the gold price, one can take that as a given, gets heavily manipulated, because of its signalling character about the status of the market and money quality. Its a big threat for central banks and governments, one would be naive to assume they leave it untouched. Governments like gold only when they own it themselves.

As non-American, do not forget that the exchange rate for the dollar heavily interferes with the development of the gold price in dollar. The high spike of 1900 dollars some years ago - was almost unnoticed by the charts in Euro at that time! In Euro it was at around 1350 only. In Euro it currently is at around 1100, and in dollars 1250 or lower. 550 credits differenc ein the first example, 150 credits differenc ein the second comparison. The Euro chart for gold never reflected the wide span of maximum and minimum prices in the past 10 years, as the dollar chart did.

Different to popular belief, the gold price does not move up and down rationally and always in conformity with the expectations of ratio and reason. Often it does exactly the opposite of what is expected.

So, gold not as investment, but as a safety to secure wealth you already have gained. Buy it anonymous, keep it in a safe location,a nd forget about it for the next 10, 15 years. Its a tool of storage for welath, not more, not less. As long as the political plunderers do not rob you again with a prohibition. "In government, the scum raises to the top." (Hayek) Be on your guard.

In general be on your guard. Hunker down, dig yourself in deeply, take cover. The next rain will start falling, and this time it will flood the trenches completely. The central banks have done their best to make it not just a stomflood but a tsunami this time. If then all you have is just printed paper, you will regret it. And stocks and companies behind them - well, obviously there is - and should be - a link. That should worry you. Or does anybody think companies will remain unaffected from such a monetarian tsunami?

Many people, once dollar signs started blinking in their eyes, make themselves forgetting that trading stocks means not only realising the chance to gain something - but also means the chance to loose everything. Its no game, its no fun, its not entertaining - its a risk. Always. Dont get carried away, or lulled in cozy nestwarmth. Be serious.

I made it a rule for myself to not do somethign with a little money that I would not dare to do with much more money as well. Often its better not to move. But if you move, make sure you do it with your heart behind it.