French election thread

[Bilge_Rat]

since the election is this sunday, I thought we could start a thread.

I speak French fluently and because of that can keep up with the reporting.

I always liked their system for choosing a President, a first round where everyone runs, basically a "jungle primary" and a second round where the two top contenders square off.

Usually, the race is between the left-leaning "Socialist" candidate and the center-right "Republicain" candidate, but 2017 is a free for all.

The current President François Hollande is so unpopular, he did not even run for re-election.

His replacement, the official "Socialist" candidate Benoit Hamon is so far behind in the polls, he will not make the second round.

The official "Republicain" UMP candidate, former PM François Filion is in the middle of a huge scandal and also will probaly not make the 2nd round.

The leading contenders are:

-Emmanuel Macron, 40 year old Boy wonder. Former "Socialist" minister who left to found his own party. He seems to be center-left. Think JFK, Bill Clinton.

-Marine Le Pen, the Front National candidate. Extreme right-wing. Think Alt-right/white-nationalist/Trump.

-Jean-Luc Melenchon, also has his own party, has been rising in the polls and has a real shot. Extreme left. Think Bernie Sanders.

predictions for First round results?

I will go with:

Macron - 1st
Le Pen - 2nd

Apparently, some Banks are so worried about the result, they have asked their staff to be at their desks Sunday night so they can react quickly depending on the results.

[Jimbuna]

I should imagine the EU will be watching developments extremely closely.

My prediction for a few weeks now has been Macron 1st and Le Pen 2nd but after yesterdays Paris gun attack it is hard to guess just what effect that will have on the voters.

[Jimbuna]

The two traditional parties (both of whom lost in the first round for the first time) are now appealing to their supporters to side with Macron in an effort to keep Le Pen out.

[STEED]

Not much too say as we all knew Le Pen would get though round one but all the smart money is on Macron to win round two.

[Bilge_Rat]

Polls are giving Macron around 60% for the second round, but this is not 2002. I was watching the coverage on TV5 and the "Front National" spokesmen are much more polished these days. Le Pen will do better than her father.

[Jimbuna]

Not much too say as we all knew Le Pen would get though round one but all the smart money is on Macron to win round two.

I should imagine the other 26 EU members (not including the UK) will be hoping the same way.

[STEED]

I should imagine the other 26 EU members (not including the UK) will be hoping the same way.

Foregone conclusion or I will eat a slice of pizza, not a fan of pizza just to add. :)

[Jimbuna]

Well, if I'm to be honest, I'd like to see Le Pen win because she reminds me of Thatcher and May....the potential to be a strong leader, even in the face of adversity. Something which is sadly lacking in many a countries leadership nowadays.

[Kptlt. Neuerburg]

Here's something for those of you who aren't quite sure what's going on.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hkZir1L7fSY

[ikalugin]

I would kek if Le-Pen would win.

[Kapitan]

Personally i would rather Le Pen win, mainly because of the serious issues that her country faces something we haven't endured because of the Channel, time the EU broke up i cannot stand it i hate the EU with a passion.

[ikalugin]

I don't hate the EU, but if I were a citizen of EU member state I would campaighn to my Government to either force reform of the EU or leave EU, as EU in it's current form while beneficial in a number of ways appears to be un democratic in nature.

However if such a reform did pass I would support partial transfer of soverenity to EU for the economies of scale, as the EU authorities would be accountable to me, as their voter.

[Skybird]

The French are pissed of the two main parties ( at least for the time being, i think next elections in five years we are back to business as normal). If their candidates now urge the French not to vote for LePen, but Macron, this could result in exactly the opposite of what they hope to acchieve - a backfiring, and people turning towards LePen right because the main parties told them not to vote for her.

I will tolerate whoever does the bigger damage to the EU. I cannot stand the FN and LePen, but I would stay put and silent if they win.

[STEED]

The EU will be knocked for six if France left but remains standing, only Germany withdrawing will see the collapse and i don't see France or Germany leaving in the next 10 years. NF is like our UKIP nothing more than a protest vote.


French election: Hollande urges nation to back Macron and reject Le Penhttp://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-39695686

[em2nought]

Hopefully France can take back their country, and fill up some internment camps. :salute:

So is it as easy to vote illegally in Europe as it is in the US?

[Kapitan]

I have never liked the format i quote the president of Europe "There will be no reforms" how can you work in a system that cannot reform or adapt? eventually people will grow sick and tired of stagnation as they did in the soviet union.

I do not like the fact that a foreign court can over rule our own sovereign courts the supreme court should be the final step not Strasbourg.

I do not like the fact they have a flag my country has one and its quite a nice flag i have no need for a bit of blue with some gold on it.

I have a Monarch who is head of state whom i respect whom i swore allegiance too, i never have or will ever support that idea for Europe

I cannot stand the fact that Europe is trying to present itself as a united state or super state i want no part of that full stop I am British I have my country my island i do not want some ponce in a foreign land telling me i'm doing it wrong (hypocritical i know)

My family fought and some died to ensure that we have the freedom of today

I see Europe as a new form of a "Communist socialist state" in terms of Mr Junker who elected you? oh right no one in Europe.

I see Europe as a want to be country, a want to be state, one that does away with national identity, does away with things a lot of people still hold dear to them regardless of the country they are in.

France is the 3rd largest economy in the EU behind Germany and Britain i cant see the EU lasting should France pulls out because you have the leech countries still draining money away Greece Spain are two of the culprits, yet i pass by many signs in those countries that says "sponsored by the EU" oh wait that means mugs like me, yet i have never seen such a sign in the UK it just seems we put in we get sod all out.

Bring back the borders a lot of the terrorist problems in France and Germany were caused because of the free movement idea, thank god we never signed shengen ! its easy to commit a crime in Paris and skip across to Poland and then out of the EU how the heck would you ever be found ?

Do people in the EU parliament not get the ordinary man the working class of all Europe are sick and tired of being told were better off when in reality we are not?

My industry has suffered hugely because of the EU before the implementation of the DCPC certification in my industry we were thriving the day it came in we lost nearly 15,000 highly skilled workers we went from having around 12,000 short to over 35,000 in the proceeding years and its the same across all of the EU the same thing.

The EU even bars us from fining people who flout EU laws in the UK ! come on they can do it in France Germany Belgium but the UK oh no!

What about Sweden ? members of Shengen oh wait because of the problems with migrants they withdrew does that not tell you there is a massive issue that needs to be solved? when i was in Malmo a few months back the Swedish prime minister announced publicly that 16,000 refugees will be returned home in 2017 due to their false statements and false applications this is after Sweden stated it would take 100,000 of them that's a big portion in one year and nope the EU bods stick head firmly in the sand.

A lot of people would label me racist (which would be incorrect the definition of racist is the belief that one ethnic race (not religion) is superior to another) and Xenophobic (the fear of foreigners and foreign influence), neither is true i believe that if you have a genuine claim and you are at risk you should be granted asylum no matter where you are from, however the majority who make false claims label and tarnish this and those who genuinely do need the assistance suffer because of other peoples selfish acts.

For me the EU is one bad apple and it does need to be cast out with something better in place the EU went wrong when it became political the concept of free market system free movement is a good one but its being used as a loaded gun to members heads and that is not right.

I hope France votes for Le Pen and i hope she does exit the EU the British have shown you the light and the way follow us.

[ikalugin]

The only core issue that I see in the EU is it's un-democratic nature and that issue would be a deal breaker for me (if I was a citezens of EU member state). However I would be for federalised United States of Europe if that issue was solved and the EU leadership was accountable to me as a voter, either directly or indirectly.

Majority of other problems people see with such system (ie internal migration) can be solved (ie by barriers to said internal migration). However one must first solve the core issue and probably change the ideology behind EU leadership, because without the later it would be hard to solve lesser problems (ie internal migration).

[Kapitan]

The only core issue that I see in the EU is it's un-democratic nature and that issue would be a deal breaker for me (if I was a citezens of EU member state). However I would be for federalised United States of Europe if that issue was solved and the EU leadership was accountable to me as a voter, either directly or indirectly.

Majority of other problems people see with such system (ie internal migration) can be solved (ie by barriers to said internal migration). However one must first solve the core issue and probably changes the ideology behind EU leadership, because without the later it would be hard to solve lesser problems (ie internal migration).


I have no issue with EU citizens coming and taking jobs in the UK because we go over there and do the same so its a fair game, it also gives a lot of diversity and choice a lot of my guys are Romanian simply because British people don't want to do the work any more its a bit like the old commonwealth when Jamaicans came to the UK to fill the vacancies for Bus drivers in the 50's and 60's

I myself have worked in many EU and Non EU countries and found it a nice challenge and change. it can only be said though it has to work both ways and unfortunately it doesn't.

The real problem came when the EU opened its doors to countries like Romania and said no controls the value of the £1 does go a long way in Romania many of my lads have 6-8 bedroom houses and acres of land back home through British wages they live on £40 per week send it home that no good for a domestic economy, what i am paying them does not get reinvested into the British system its being farmed out and theirs only so much farming out you can do before you crash.

Can i blame the people for doing it? nope absolutely not who wouldn't want to work hard for a better life?

[ikalugin]

As I have said - you can have internal migration controls.

Just not with current EU elites.

[Jimbuna]

Some of the press are now saying that Macron is just another Hollande but in a different suit.

Was it just a coincidence Macron threw a rather lavish celebratory party after his first round victory at the same outrageously expensive cafe Hollande celebrated in when he won the first round back during his election? :hmmm:

[Skybird]

Russia could not take and keep the Crimean.

Brexit could not happen.

Trump could not win.

LePen can not succeed.

[Bilge_Rat]

Some of the press are now saying that Macron is just another Hollande but in a different suit.

Was it just a coincidence Macron threw a rather lavish celebratory party after his first round victory at the same outrageously expensive cafe Hollande celebrated in when he won the first round back during his election? :hmmm:

Well Macron was a member of the Socialist party.

He worked as part of President Hollande's staff from 2012 to 2014.

He was minister of finance under Hollande from 2014 to 2016....

hard not to make the link.

[ikalugin]

Russia could not take and keep the Crimean.

Brexit could not happen.

Trump could not win.

LePen can not succeed.
You leave some bits out, for example regarding the recent elections in the Netherlands. After BREXIT and Trump people were predicting different results there but none came.

[Bilge_Rat]

today's poll:

-Macron - 61%
-Le Pen - 39%

Hard to see how he could blow/she could overcome a 22 point gap in two weeks.

http://www.parismatch.com/Actu/Politique/Sondage-presidentielle-ces-categories-qui-penchent-pour-Le-Pen-1241657

[Jimbuna]

^ Yeah and she's dropped her position as president of FN for the time being but I doubt that will make much difference.

[Bilge_Rat]

dirty politics?

The European Parliament announced today that Marine Le Pen and 16 other FN deputies may have "defrauded" the EU by as much as 5 million Euros. At issue are salaries for EU parliamentary aides which the EU is claiming were instead used to pay party employees.

http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2017/04/27/01002-20170427ARTFIG00231-emplois-fictifs-presumes-du-fn-le-parlement-estime-le-prejudice-a-5-millions-d-euros.php

coincidence that this is coming out 1 1/2 week before the election?

[ikalugin]

Considering her stance on the EU membership of France and thus existance of the EU?

[Jimbuna]

The EU will achieve little other than demonstrate to the world how tainted and vindictive they really are.

[Bubblehead1980]

Really is great to see enough people wake up finally to translate to election results. First Brexit, then Trump shocked the world. I believe enough of France is awake to the danger not just their country, but western civilization and culture is facing from various threats from the globalists and the death cult. Time to be tolerant of those who wish to conquer, enslave, and/or murder us all is over.

I believe much like in America a lot of people who supported Trump and still do remain silent until they vote, because it's not "PC" , a lot of people in France support Le Pen will express this at the ballot box. I could be wrong of course.

[Bubblehead1980]

“France will be led by a woman, either me or Mrs Merkel,” :har:

Hope France shocks the world as Brits did with Brexit and US did with President Trump.

[STEED]

Macron is clearly going to win as Le Pen's background is good solid mud to sling back in her face. That said Le Pen is in this for the long haul.

[Jimbuna]

It would appear (should one believe some press sources) that there are currently sufficient undecided voters to swing it her way.

[Catfish]

Officially she shut her father up for his antisemitism and holocaust denial, but all say she did it to get the party's top job. She believes in her father's propaganda, she just does not dare to openly say it – yet. Her party's fellow members are not so shy.

[Bilge_Rat]

latest poll is still Macron 60, Le Pen 40.

http://www.parismatch.com/La-presidentielle-en-temps-reel

only 3 days left, I don't see how she can close the gap.

[Jimbuna]

Never say never.

[Bilge_Rat]

http://cdn3-europe1.new2.ladmedia.fr/var/europe1/storage/images/le-lab/le-moment-le-plus-genant-du-debat-vous-est-offert-par-marine-le-pen-3319070/40950722-1-fre-FR/Le-moment-le-plus-genant-du-debat-vous-est-offert-par-Marine-Le-Pen.gif

not ready for prime time?

one thing I have to hand the french is their debates, almost 3 hours, next to no moderation.

The Hollande-Sarkozy debate in 2012 was epic.

[mapuc]

^ According the news here Macron went to the attorney to fill an accusation against Le Pen for what she said in yesterday's debate about
She claimed Macron have a secret account in the Bahamas

I hope she have the prof.

Markus

[ikalugin]

I think people got a bit over excited post Trump and BREXIT regarding the new right.

[Jimbuna]

Just the latest chapter in the latest political circus ring.

[em2nought]

Guess France is going to be the first country in Europe to become Islamic. :hmmm: Maybe everyone else can stop accepting enemies into their respective countries now, and let them all go to France instead? :up:

[Bilge_Rat]

Macron 65-Le Pen 34

Blowout!

However, it may be a short lived triumph, Macron has no political party and on french TV, representatives of all parties are already pivoting to the june parliamentary elections.

p.s. trivia - Macron is the youngest Head of State since Napoleon in 1799.

[STEED]

As if we did not see that one, Macron wins....:yep:

[ikalugin]

I wonder if the conspiracy theorist are going extra crazy today.

[Jimbuna]

No real surprise in the outcome I suppose but I was seriously surprised and almost shocked to learn of Le Pens parties alleged connections and support with the Vichy government.

[Catfish]

So Macron got 65 percent, this is a clear sign. Guess a lot of people in France are p.. off by the latest hate and racist shouting and recent international conduct, and with Trump and brexit happening. But concerned to see that obviously a lot of Brits regard the term "European" as an abuse.
I just hope Macron delivers and triggers a real change for France, otherwise France and us have LePen in five years. Make no mistake, more than a third of voters have preferred a far-right and racist candidate, commanding a party that more or less openly denies the holocaust, is by definition anti-democratic and anti-european :shifty:

What is good is that Macron will meet Merkel at eye-level, and is obviously eager to fight, also for a change in the EU. I wish him and France (and all of us in the EU) the very best!

@Ikalugin regarding conspiracy theories, even Trump has accepted the outcome of the french election, probably grinding his teeth. Putin will not be so pleased either i think..

[Catfish]

[...] ...was seriously surprised and almost shocked to learn of Le Pens parties alleged connections and support with the Vichy government.

Huh? She just said that "Vichy was not France", and that "France had no hand in deporting or killing jews", both statements are wrong of course :06:

edit: ah i see, archives to be opened, allegedly National Front party connection to Vichy govenment. Was not aware, sorry.

[Jimbuna]

Huh? She just said that "Vichy was not France", and that "France had no hand in deporting or killing jews", both statements are wrong of course :06:

edit: ah i see, archives to be opened, allegedly National Front party connection to Vichy govenment. Was not aware, sorry.

No problem matey, that is why I was careful to insert the word 'alleged'.

[Skybird]

Second highest number of non-voters since fifty years. And two parties that want revenge - and have the parliamentary elections ahead to score in. Macron, not being member of any of the two, will find his presidency anything but simple. And it is possible that it ends in a stunning stalemate with consequences beyond the French borders. The bureaucratic and administrative apparatus can bring his ambitions to a grinding halt, he has no backhalt in it.

Luckily I recently have discovered the art to make fresh popcorn at home. :up:

[STEED]

A new party a young President seems risky and yet the voters clearly had enough of the old guard. Be interesting too see the general election outcome next month.

[Bilge_Rat]

No real surprise in the outcome I suppose but I was seriously surprised and almost shocked to learn of Le Pens parties alleged connections and support with the Vichy government.

Some of the founders of the Party were Nazi collaborators during WW2, some held similar views to the Nazis, which is why some still refer to the FN as a neo-Nazi party.

However, like all parties, the FN has been moving more towards the center as its electoral success rises, so although it is a populist, conservative, nationalist Party, I am not sure to what extent the "Neo-Nazi" tag is still accurate.

[Bubblehead1980]

Trying to wrap my head around the election results. France is under siege due to islamic terrorism. Instead of electing someone prepared to actually confront the barbarians who live within, they elect a globalist, pro EU,sympathizer who played the EU anthem instead of the French one?

[ikalugin]

Trying to wrap my head around the election results. France is under siege due to islamic terrorism. Instead of electing someone prepared to actually confront the barbarians who live within, they elect a globalist, pro EU,sympathizer who played the EU anthem instead of the French one?
That and the fact that strongly pro labour France elected a corporatist banker. I can already see the labour laws in France melting and people rioting in the streets.

[Bilge_Rat]

Presidents back to Chirac have been trying to reform the labour laws. I doubt Macron will be more successful.

First, he has to get a working majority in Parliament or he will become a lame duck very quickly.

[em2nought]

http://thefederalistpapers.integratedmarket.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/18361202_1525125484174944_1848210403_n.jpg

[Sophia]

My opinion is that a strong majority of people disliked/dislike MlP because of what her political party is based on, aka surfing on irrational fears and social problems severely over-represented in the media. I estimate the people in that case to about 60%-65% of the population (my very rough estimation).