Russian FFG intercepting 2 Burke DDG's in the med

[Kapitan]

wouldnt surprise me if an Oscar II gets dispatched to the med of wait one has left port ;)

Full storey here

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/04/07/russian-warship-steams-toward-us-destroyers-that-launched-syria-airstrikes.html

[Delgard]

Obviously, battlefield security should be monitored. With that in mind, I just don't understand why the news keeps saying the names of the two destroyers. That is just putting a target on the side of the ships, AND, if they go into a port the sailors wear a target.

I suspect that military leaders are moving assets around for mutual defense. Maybe an American submarine lurks near the two destroyers to help with undersea ISR and defense.

Just a thought. Safe sailing all.

[Kapitan]

Obviously, battlefield security should be monitored. With that in mind, I just don't understand why the news keeps saying the names of the two destroyers. That is just putting a target on the side of the ships, AND, if they go into a port the sailors wear a target.

I suspect that military leaders are moving assets around for mutual defense. Maybe an American submarine lurks near the two destroyers to help with undersea ISR and defense.

Just a thought. Safe sailing all.

i would say its likely either a British American or French submarine is in the area

but also K266 left port yesterday destination unknown possibly Mediterranean
https://c1.staticflickr.com/3/2864/33770208731_82973d49b6_z.jpg (https://flic.kr/p/Tsa9w8)K226 (https://flic.kr/p/Tsa9w8) by Blair shaw (https://www.flickr.com/photos/131313936@N03/), on Flickr

[Delgard]

Something to track...Where coming from?

Well, well, well. An Oscar II.

[Kapitan]

Something to track...Where coming from?

Well, well, well. An Oscar II.

Severomorsk K266 isn't long out of overhaul so it may be going on a shake down cruise and then to a mission who knows all i know is she left April 6th and has yet to return.

[speed150mph]

K-266 had an extensive overhaul. Heavy work was done to the propulsion plant, weapons system, navigation and support systems.

She won't be going anywhere soon. She needs to do her post refit work ups, and since they upgraded fire control systems and upgraded to the oniks missile , that will definately include live firing drills. They will want to do a staged run up of the shafts to make sure everything is good, and they will probably do a slow dive to test depth to make fully sure the fire she had while in dry dock did not cause any hull weakness.

After that she will probably come back to her home port to do a full diagnostic of the ship and make any repairs for issues found in the work ups.

By the time all that is done, they could have already dispatched one of their other ships from northern fleet or PAC fleet to make the transit. More likely then not they have dispatched one of their boats already at sea. I wouldn't be surprised if one of the new kilos in the Black Sea didn't put to sea soon.

[ikalugin]

Smolensk of Voronezh are the more likely candidates I would say. Orel indeed went back to it's homeport for post refit stuff.

In addition to the new sensors, electronics and weapons they would be testing UUVs.

Also, chances are, they would be test launching Zircons too this year.

[speed150mph]

I doubt that they would send an oscar II into the med for anything less then trailing a carrier group. Certainly not for a couple DDGs. Oscars are big, noisy and don't handle the shallows of the med very well. They like wide open oceans.

If I was them, id send a couple of the new kilos from Sevastopol, their close, their quiet, and they are good in shallow water. I'd have them set up as a barrier patrol off the Syrian cost, backing off only to recharge batteries.

I'd also send in an Akula to station keep and track them from long range. It has the speed and endurance to follow the burkes as they move down the coast. It's also a lot quieter and easier to maneuver in shallows then an oscar.

[ikalugin]

SSNs are tasked with other duties, ie SSBN escort. Currently it appears we can pick out of (in the Northern Fleet):
Oscar-IIs:
- K-119 Voronezh
- K-410 Smolensk
Akulas (various):
- K-317 Panther
- K-335 Gepard
Sierra-IIs:
- B-336 Pskov
- B-534 Nizhny Novgorod
Victor-IV:
- B-138 Obninsk

Sierras and Victor are probably out of the picture due to their status (ie Victor participated in the exercises a month ago), out of Akulas the obvious candidate is the Gepard but I bet they are busy with other missions.

p.s. and the Kilos are not based in Sevastopol.

[Kapitan]

I doubt that they would send an oscar II into the med for anything less then trailing a carrier group. Certainly not for a couple DDGs. Oscars are big, noisy and don't handle the shallows of the med very well. They like wide open oceans.

If I was them, id send a couple of the new kilos from Sevastopol, their close, their quiet, and they are good in shallow water. I'd have them set up as a barrier patrol off the Syrian cost, backing off only to recharge batteries.

I'd also send in an Akula to station keep and track them from long range. It has the speed and endurance to follow the burkes as they move down the coast. It's also a lot quieter and easier to maneuver in shallows then an oscar.

The med although enclosed isnt that shallow and you do find Oscar's in there a fair amount of time mainly because the Americans have a carrier group stationed in Rota Spain.

As for the K266 yes she is undergoing trials after refit so we can count her out that leaves Vorenezh and Smolensk.

Memory serving the Kilos are at Novorosysk

[speed150mph]

Yes sorry my mistake on the kilos, and I agree, they would deploy them to follow a carrier battlegroup, but the nimitz carriers have a deep draft, and preserving maneuvering space means they will stay in deep open water, which suits the oscar II perfectly.

But I don't believe 2 burkes are valuable enough to divert an Oscar II, and they will probably enter more shallow waters.

That's why I think that they'd send kilos. The kilos to me are the best weapon they have. Their suited to the environment, they arnt overkill for the opposing force (as compared to a carrier killer guided missile sub), they are local and easily deployed and to the best of my knowledge are not otherwise tied up with other missions.

[ikalugin]

Well, where else would you send the Oscar-II then?

Improved Kilos can be deployed to the eastern Med., but because they are not sprinters and because any USN surface action group would most likely avoid coastal areas I don't think that they would be shadowing the said surface action group. IMO Oscar-II, especially without the data regarding Improved Kilo passage through the straits, is the more likely alternative, especially how historically we would deploy Oscar-IIs in regions with increased tensions.

[Delgard]

Could the Kilo subs do a barrier patrol with C2 from a surface ship?

[speed150mph]

Well perhaps you are right. The possibility that they may send an oscar there in case things heat up is a possibility, with tensions being so high.

Ikalugin, you seem fairly familiar with Russian navy movements and protocol. I also noticed your profile says you hail from Moscow. Are you former Russian navy?

[ikalugin]

Could the Kilo subs do a barrier patrol with C2 from a surface ship?
I guess, but there are only so many Improved Kilos in the Black Sea Fleet (6 to be specific, all 6 are operational), which makes making a proper barrier hard.
Plus, as I have said, we haven't seen them passing the straits.

Well perhaps you are right. The possibility that they may send an oscar there in case things heat up is a possibility, with tensions being so high.

Ikalugin, you seem fairly familiar with Russian navy movements and protocol. I also noticed your profile says you hail from Moscow. Are you former Russian navy?
Arms chair admiral, never have been in the Navy.

[ikalugin]

Meanwhile, Russian Corvettes are getting escorted through the channel.

[Kapitan]

Oscar's have many roles many are being retrofitted as Project 949AM which has land attack rather than anti ship missiles, this makes the Syrian conflict a very good proving ground for them.

You also have to note ultimately the Oscar II is a rather large attack submarine at heart and does carry an impressive array of torpedoes and non silo'd missiles.

The lack of intelligence from Turkey (NATO member) would suggest no Black sea Kilo's have transited the Bosporus, Kilos do not have the speed and Endurance to follow a Burke lets be truthful the Burke only has to kick off at 30 knots for a few hours and your well out of the way of a kilo.

The submarines in transit must do so on the surface as per the 1921 treaty, it is also pretty much suicidal to transit submerged !
Having navigated ships my self through these waters the straights are extremely confined and shallow the Kilo would run a extremely high risk of grounding or being run over by a faster surface ship.

So would an Oscar II fit the bill in the med? absolutely its been their hunting ground since the first one was launched in the 80's, infact just prior to the loss of K141 Kursk she had deployed to the med merely months before.

[Kapitan]

Meanwhile, Russian Corvettes are getting escorted through the channel.

Indeed by HMS Sutherland type 23 FFG

[ikalugin]

Oscar's have many roles many are being retrofitted as Project 949AM which has land attack rather than anti ship missiles, this makes the Syrian conflict a very good proving ground for them.You can still use Oniks/Yahont out of them, with Zircon getting their soon, so they retain the AShM capability.

And that capability is significant, for example compare a force made out of 2 Oscar-IIIs and 1 Yasen class (total of 2*72+32 silos) against say a RN carrier battlegroup.

[Kapitan]

You can still use Oniks/Yahont out of them, with Zircon getting their soon, so they retain the AShM capability.

And that capability is significant, for example compare a force made out of 2 Oscar-IIIs and 1 Yasen class against say a RN carrier battlegroup.

Indeed i am aware of their AShM capability even post refit to AM model, it still makes them a very powerful weapon, it also keeps them in front line service for another 15 to 20 years, which is what i was getting at when i said non silo'd missiles (not the ones on the side where the P700's were)

Don't discount a CVBG from the UK in the advent of war its extremely likely we would be supported by Dutch and German vessels working along side the French in a European Theatre, the new dutch systems along with the British sampson systems are extremely good as good as the latest AEGIS if not slightly better, we also have that system available to us from Spain and Norway.

In fact its well know all ballistic missile tests carried out in the north from Russia are monitored by a Nansen class Frigate's in Norway's own waters its a very powerful system.

[ikalugin]

Just play a numbers game, RN would not have enough area defense weapons (3*48+4*4=160) in it's carrier battle group (3 T45s + 4 JSFs on patrol on that specific attack vector) to intecept a 176 strong salvo by those 3 subs. Even if you add allied ships, point defenses and the like they would still strugle, as Pk in real combat conditions is not 1 per defensive round fired.

[Kapitan]

Just play a numbers game, RN would not have enough area defense weapons in it's carrier battle group to intecept a 176 strong salvo by those 3 subs. Even if you add allied ships they would strugle, as Pk in real combat conditions is not 1 per defensive round fired.

Assuming a 1v1 stance backed up by other foreign assets to bolster the ranks you could do it for sure.

As for numbers if you were to say a half DDG fleet with a quarter FFG fleet so thats 3 type 45's and 3 type 23's escorting the carrier negating foreign assets you could in theory intercept and take down all the missiles.

Type 45's carry a 48 cell VLS launcher for Viper missiles which is area defence
Type 23's carry a 32 cell VLS Seawolf launcher

So when you do those numbers you top out at 255 missiles in total while agreed 96 of those would be point defence and not area defence these would be the mop up job which is what worked in the falklands

by marrying off a type 45 and 23 you can pair their systems one provides area defence the other point defence so it is still doable in a stand alone theatre.

[ikalugin]

As you can see in my (edited) post above, there is a total of 144 area defense SAMs on T45s (in reality 96 b/c they typically carry a compliment of Aster-15s).

Considering the engagement times, especially after Zircon comes online, you can negate point defense launcher ammo capacity, as there would be insufficient time to deplete those stores. T23 has one such launcher.

You can also count only point defense launchers either on or very close to the defended platform, because due to the attacking missile's speed the real protected area of the launcher is minimal and is significantly less than the advertised max range (ie 40-60km for CAMM and it's variants).

Unless all 3 T23s are running point defense duties for the carrier and not say ASW duties contribution of point defenses would be fairly meager. And if T23s are busy with point defense instead of ASW, let us be honest, we would just go in with torpedoes.

[Kapitan]

As you can see in my (edited) post above, there is a total of 144 area defense SAMs on T45s (in reality 96 b/c they typically carry a compliment of Aster-15s).

Considering the engagement times, especially after Zircon comes online, you can negate point defense launcher ammo capacity, as there would be insufficient time to deplete those stores. T23 has one such launcher.

You can also count only point defense launchers either on or very close to the defended platform, because due to the attacking missile's speed the real protected area of the launcher is minimal and is significantly less than the advertised max range (ie 40-60km for CAMM and it's variants).

Unless all 3 T23s are running point defense duties for the carrier and not say ASW duties contribution of point defenses would be fairly meager. And if T23s are busy with point defense instead of ASW, let us be honest, we would just go in with torpedoes.


Going off the Falklands the predecessors to the type 23 the type 22 were pretty much always in Point defence mode even when escorting the carriers, this is due in part to the air wing being able to field ASW helicopters something the QE class would also do and the fact that both type 45's and type 23's carry ASW capable helicopters would mean they have an off set asset thus meaning the type 23 could in fact conduct point defence all the time.

It is also worth while to note the type 23 like the type 22 can carry out both roles at the same time its not restricted in any way shape or form.

[ikalugin]

Falkland's experience is not applicable, as Argentinian submarines were a negligible threat thus allowing deployement of ASW ships in point defense role.

ASW helicopters are nice, but you would still deploy ASW pickets with their towed and such.

[Kapitan]

Falkland's experience is not applicable, as Argentinian submarines were a negligible threat thus allowing deployement of ASW ships in point defense role.

ASW helicopters are nice, but you would still deploy ASW pickets with their towed and such.

They still posed a big threat and were actively hunted down indeed HMS Plymouth received damage from a failed torpedo detonation launched by an Argentine submarine.

That at the moment would be the only close comparison you could have to any conflict had the submarine been armed with an Exocet the situation could have been more favourable to the Argentinians.

Helicopters can out run submarines and the worst thing for any submarine is firing a missile and it being seen the helicopter can be in the area very fast which would mean a torpedo is about to land on your head.

Getting in close is a solution but in confined waters escape would not be easy areas like the Baltic and North sea for example

Factor in also if close to home land based aircraft will also be looking in and around the area.

[ikalugin]

I think Gulf War is a better example, with T42 intercepting an AShM, but then I know nothing :)

[Kapitan]

I think Gulf War is a better example, with T42 intercepting an AShM, but then I know nothing :)


Only thing a type 42 intercepted really was the exocet with sea dart which is no longer used viper has replaced it.

the RN lacks numbers to confront the Russians head on alone which is why we always work in coalition these days we are dependant on the USA and NATO allies for support

Right now if Argentina kicks off in the falklands we would require USA help to regain the islands we could not do it alone.

[Delgard]

I always thought U.S. and Allied warships were under-defended. Most likely from budget constraints.

[ikalugin]

Did you know that Borei class has hard kill counter torps?

[Kapitan]

Did you know that Borei class has hard kill counter torps?

Heard vague reports of this basically a torpedo that acts as a decoy like a UUV but intercepts incoming torpedoes rather than search for targets or hunts other vessels.

[ikalugin]

That is the soft kill system - self propelled imitator.

Now there are hard kill systems, ie torpedoes that attack hostile torpedoes.

[ikalugin]

http://files.balancer.ru/cache/forums/attaches/2017/05/640x480/31-5033581-2017-05-31-11-14-58.png

So now we can see the set up for the strike VLS of the Kirov class refit - 10 8 cell UKSK launchers.

[MGR1]

It'll be interesting to see what Admiral Nakhimov looks like when her refit is finished. It'll also be interesting to find out what the ultimate plan is for the Admiral Lazarev. I don't think there's anything like SevMash in the Russian Far East?

Speaking of refits, I hear that the Chinese are making alterations on the four Project 956's they have.

Mike.

[ikalugin]

It'll be interesting to see what Admiral Nakhimov looks like when her refit is finished. It'll also be interesting to find out what the ultimate plan is for the Admiral Lazarev. I don't think there's anything like SevMash in the Russian Far East?
Lazarev was sheduled for a mid life repair and refit as well. It would probably be Nahimov->Lazarev->Peter the Great. As usual the nature of the refit would probably be different for each ship in the class.

Speaking of refits, I hear that the Chinese are making alterations on the four Project 956's they have.

I heard of that too, but I am not aware of the details. Note that the Chinese ships were built to their own specification and differ from the Soviet/Russian ones, especially the 2nd pair.

[MGR1]

True, true. I was curious as to whether or not there was more information on what the Chinese were up to in Russia in comparison with what we seem to have in the West.

If the Lazarev does go in for refit, would she be done in a yard in the Far East or would she moved back to European Russia?

Mike.