Why Did America Stop Building the Best (and Most Dangerous Sub)

[Onkel Neal]

Why Did America Stop Building the Best (and Most Dangerous Sub) (http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/why-did-america-stop-building-the-best-most-dangerous-18972)

http://nationalinterest.org/files/styles/main_image_on_posts/public/main_images/seawolf_4.jpg?itok=Gp80GvC5

Despite their advanced, world-beating capabilities, only three Seawolf-class submarines were ever built, doomed by the end of the Cold War and escalating costs. Fast, deep diving and bristling with weapons, the U.S. Navy’s Seawolf subs are more relevant than ever in the face of Russian and Chinese naval ambitions.

The U.S. submarine force experience a crash dive in numbers. The force went from an all-time high of 102 attack submarines in 1987 to just fifty-seven submarines in 1999. This decline wasn’t just limited to submarines, although the sub force was hurt the most—during the same period, the U.S. Navy ship force declined from 594 ships to just 337.

[yubba]

I guess it was a toss up between that and the Virginia Class,, If you were to choose which one.????

[Platapus]

What do we need these new subs for that the existing subs can't do? These are pretty expensive to build and operate.

What could that money be used for instead, and would that have a better ROI?

[Catfish]

It's always the money. ;)

[Oberon]

Sub & Naval Discussions? :hmmm:

[Rockstar]

Maybe advances in listening stations, satellite/elint technology has made it nearly impossible for an underwater adversary to get around unnoticed these days. maybe subs are going the way of the battleship or maybe there just isnt enough bad guys to chase.

[ikalugin]

Sea Wolfs are like F22As - excelent in their narrow role but too specialised in it to do other tasks well.

[Jimbuna]

It's always the money. ;)

Yep, most probably.

[Rockstar]

Why spend money on a sub which must give away its location to deliver a harpoon. When money spent on hyper sonic missle technology could deliver a package anywhere in the world within an hour of placing your order.

[Onkel Neal]

From what I've read elsewhere, in the end the Virginia class ended up costing about the same as the Seawolf subs were coming in at.

What do we need these new subs for that the existing subs can't do? These are pretty expensive to build and operate.


The Navy needs something to replace the 688 class, they won't last forever.

Would the US Navy be adequate with no submarines? In peacetime, sure. As long as we are sure another war against a formidable power will not occur, we are ok. Otherwise....

[ikalugin]

Even in peacetime you want subs for stuff like special forces delivery and intel gathering, not to mention sanitising your SSBN patrol areas.

[Onkel Neal]

Yes, I agree subs are still the best ICBM platform.


Maybe advances in listening stations, satellite/elint technology has made it nearly impossible for an underwater adversary to get around unnoticed these days. maybe subs are going the way of the battleship or maybe there just isnt enough bad guys to chase.

Yeah, maybe that's it. Submarines are obsolete, we just don't realize it yet. I certainly agree that you could get a lot more bang for $2 billion using drones and missiles.

[Aktungbby]

http://www.danspapers.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/SubmarineFirstArrestWEB.jpg In order to better protect local shores and keep an eye on East End boaters, the Hamptons Police Department (http://www.danspapers.com/category/from-the-paper/police-blotter/) added a military surplus submarine to their fleet this week.
The decommissioned U.S. Navy Virginia-class submarine was taken out of service in 2013 and mothballed for nearly 18 months before ownership was transferred to the Hamptons Police Department.
“I want to emphasize that this submersible craft came at no cost to taxpayers,” Hamptons PD representative Larry Hirsch explains in a press release. “With the blessing of the Hamptons Municipal Board, we requested such a watercraft last year under a federal program to outfit local police departments with surplus military equipment.”
Aimed mainly at counter-narcotic and counter-terrorism operations, this military grade gear—such as heavily armored MRAP vehicles, automatic weapons and body armor—was initially handed out to police departments in border towns and those with serious crime problems. But the need has grown drastically around the country in recent years, and smaller departments in seemingly “safer” areas are getting in on the action.
“While the craft reached the end of its usefulness for the U.S. Navy, the civilian applications of this submersible are numerous,” Hirsch says in the statement. “You never know what’s out there and we’re here to protect the citizenry from the worst case scenario,” he added in a phone call Tuesday. “Imagine the horror people would experience if a large military craft passed beneath their boat or emerged from depths within view of the beach—we’re here to stop that from happening. This sub will make a strong statement about our power and might,” Hirsch continued. “The people want to know their police will do whatever it takes—whatever it takes—to maintain order and control,” he said. “They want to see us as an unstoppable force beyond the reach of sleazy criminals’ lawyers and legal loopholes.”
Named Jaws VIII by Hamptons PD, the submarine will be deployed to patrol the shoreline on weekends only leading up to Fourth of July, when patrols will be stepped up to seven days a week through Labor Day.
Hamptons PD marine patrol officers will be on the lookout for swimmers, surfers and boaters in distress, and will issue tickets to unlicensed operators of motorboats and to operators of all boats that are not carrying personal floatation devices. “We could even depth charge a large shark, should the need arise,” Hirsch said.
The submarine travels between 30 and 35 knots—or 56 to 65 kilometers an hour. It can travel almost the entire distance of the Hamptons’ southern shore in about 70 minutes.
Along with the submarine, Hamptons PD has recently acquired a “whole slew” of military equipment, Hirsch revealed. “As we speak, my men are doing various drills and practice engagements, including Free-for-All, Team Deathmatch, Mercenary Team Deathmatch, Headquarters, Capture the Flag, Team Tactical, Kill Confirmed and Search and Destroy scenarios,” he said.
Just days after announcing their acquisition of a decommissioned U.S. Navy Virginia-class submarine (http://www.danspapers.com/2015/06/hamptons-police-acquire-surplus-submarine/), Jaws VIII, the Hamptons Police Department (http://www.danspapers.com/category/from-the-paper/police-blotter/) has already used the military surplus craft to make an arrest.
In a daring mid-afternoon operation, the Hamptons Police Department Submarine Unit (HPDSU) responded to reports of an unruly group aboard a pleasure boat a few miles off the tip of Montauk. The boaters, who had been “blasting loud rap music,” drinking to excess and mooning nearby fishing vessels, were “utterly shocked” when confronted by the massive submarine, police said, noting that they surfaced directly in the boat’s path, making it impossible for the suspects to do anything but stop or crash.
“You should have seen it,” HPDSU Captain Buddy Covaleski said, recounting the arrest. “There’s this little boat loaded with like 20 people, and they basically came to a dead stop and stood there dumbfounded,” he said. “The driver was so stupefied he didn’t even think to put down his beer or toss the marijuana cigarette—or joint—in his hand,” Covaleski continued. “We had them dead to rights.”
The boaters were detained in the sub’s custom brig and booked with a bevy of charges, including boating under the influence, indecent exposure, harassment and possession of various controlled substances—2 grams of cocaine, a half-ounce of marijuana and four different unprescribed pharmaceuticals—along with several boating violations, such as failure to carry required safety equipment, overcrowding, reckless operation and failure to display validation sticker.
“It was terrifying,” the boat’s captain, Clint Bartholomew, said after his arraignment Friday morning. “Everything went dark as this huge, black shape emerged from the depths, and next thing you know, this dude is yelling at us through some kind of loudspeaker and waving his arms so I can see him up in that tower thing,” the captain said, adding, “I have to say, it was pretty cool riding back in that thing, especially being totally baked as I was, but I’ll definitely be following my boating Ps and Qs while that thing is out there.”
HPDSU towed the offending boat back to shore where it was impounded. :D :Kaleun_Salute: :Kaleun_Binocular::Kaleun_Party:Perhaps all $ubs should B relegated to upscale police surplus!:arrgh!:

[Skybird]

Yes, I agree subs are still the best ICBM platform.




Yeah, maybe that's it. Submarines are obsolete, we just don't realize it yet. I certainly agree that you could get a lot more bang for $2 billion using drones and missiles.
They will become obsolete one day, but before that day, they have a role to serve, and that role will last longer than that of aircraft carrier groups.

In the end, there will be autonomous weapon and sensor platforms. Whether that will be a survivable scenario for mankind, remains to be seen. I have growing doubts, and many future-researching scientists as well. AI could very well one day replace mankind.

I sometimes think that the infrastructure of the internet as well as its conditioning influence on the behaviour of man are signs that a globe-embracing AI already is there, and is self-emerging now, like a dissipative structure in chaos theory. Which means: we do not have its attracotrs it forms itself by, its finals tatus under control. And there is where the big unknown, the big potential danger lies. What if this AI gains self awareness, self-maintainability - and decides mankind to be not needed, being imperfect, being even a risk?

[Catfish]

[...] What if this AI gains self awareness, self-maintainability - and decides mankind to be not needed, being imperfect, being even a risk?

If you do not even need a court order to let a drone kill someone (and his/her innocent companions as collateral damage), why bother with humans deciding about it at all anymore? Only the first step though. If the AI really becomes intelligent, the first logical step would be to get rid of their 'creators'.

[Rockstar]

I've heard autonomous technology is the biggest thing since the Manhatten Project. You could probably buy a dozen autonomous subs for half the price of one seawolf.

[Cybermat47]

Didn't a Seawolf get a very mysterious combat citation?

Hopefully I'm still alive when if they declassify that...

[ikalugin]

I've heard autonomous technology is the biggest thing since the Manhatten Project. You could probably buy a dozen autonomous subs for half the price of one seawolf.
Not really, as you need powerplant and all those things other than humans that make a submarine work. Remember, you can cut down crew size to very small values through automation, like 32 strong crews on Alfas.

[Rockstar]

I wasnt thinking about a torpedo and harpoon launching hunter killer submarine as we know them today sans crew. I was thinking of ones with a 1kw generator and snorkle used to recharge its battery power plant able to dive to 6000 meters and a sensor package which allows it to detect, identify and track underwater adversaries. Only human involvment is when the button is pushed to deliver a ship or land based ASW hypersonic asset to its location.

[AVGWarhawk]

Let's add another country for a good reason to have keep developing submarines.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/pakistan-nuclear-missile_us_58739d79e4b043ad97e482c4?ir=Politics&utm_hp_ref=politics

[Skybird]

I wasnt thinking about a torpedo and harpoon launching hunter killer submarine as we know them today sans crew. I was thinking of ones with a 1kw generator and snorkle used to recharge its battery power plant able to dive to 6000 meters and a sensor package which allows it to detect, identify and track underwater adversaries. Only human involvment is when the button is pushed to deliver a ship or land based ASW hypersonic asset to its location.
This. Floating or diving autonomous drones will be small. Do not think in terms of an SSN here. Maybe not even a small SS. Half that size, or smaller. I think these things will get armed sooner or later.

Autonomy is the logical next step if you want to avoid the vulneraiblity of a remote link. I don't like it, but it will happen.

[ikalugin]

I wasnt thinking about a torpedo and harpoon launching hunter killer submarine as we know them today sans crew. I was thinking of ones with a 1kw generator and snorkle used to recharge its battery power plant able to dive to 6000 meters and a sensor package which allows it to detect, identify and track underwater adversaries. Only human involvment is when the button is pushed to deliver a ship or land based ASW hypersonic asset to its location.
That is not going to work b/c you need displacement for your powerplant, sensor and armament needs. Without a quantum leap in minuturisation of those (and we do not see such a leap happening) you wont go anywhere.

On the other hand current Russian desighns assume UUV integration for autonomous target search for example or other specialist needs, but those UUVs all need a mothersub to operate. That is where we are going with the Oscar-III refit for example, hypersonics and UUVs.

[Rockstar]

Heres a document released for public consumption in 2004 outlining the U.S. Navy's ideas how to use their new AUV/UUV toys.

http://www.navy.mil/navydata/technology/uuvmp.pdf

Its got to be cheaper than building a fleet of Seawolves which was why I think they may have stopped building them. I still see a need for manned submarines as a weapons platform and as suggested a mothership to UUVs and ROVs, but I think only for a short time. I've read they already have in the works plans for UUV motherships now too.

Something else to think about, with an AUV you dont need to pack all of your capability into one vehicle like currently manned submarines have. Instead you can have a multitude of smaller specialized vehicles all thinking and working together as one. Kinda like those scary Perdix autonomous drone swarms, except underwater. :)

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=BjRG0CDNSxk

Listen to those Perdix swarm at the end of the video. Imagine if you were on a sub underwater and heard that noise as AUV's swarmed about before the kill. Sounds like something right out of a horror film.

[Jimbuna]

^ Awesome :yeah:

[Skybird]

Ah, wanted to post it, too, and still do:

https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Releases/News-Release-View/Article/1044811/department-of-defense-announces-successful-micro-drone-demonstration

I mentioned it in earlier threads: the big thing after AI autonomy will be swarm AI.

Can get out of hand, as this slightly utopic thriller novel illustrated:

https://www.amazon.com/Kill-Decision-Daniel-Suarez/dp/0451417704/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1484048027&sr=8-1&keywords=suarez+kill

Nice holiday fodder. His novels Daemon, Dark Net and Freedom also are critical and exciting confrontation scenarios with an overboarding AI world. Suarez is kind of Tom Clancy for the cyberworld.

[ikalugin]

The problem with swarms is about their inherent limitations - for example in terms of onboard energy generation for propulsion/weapons.

As to switching to unmanned UUV motherships - ethics force you to keep a man in the loop.

Imagine if you were on a sub underwater and heard that noise as AUV's swarmed about before the kill. In an SSN you can always outrun those light UUVs, decoy them (remember small size = poor sensors and processing power) and so on and so forth. Under water you then get the comms problem, that is - it is hard to make a good and stealthy comm system for under water (though I guess there was decent work done on green lasers).

(those are but few out of many reasons why in addition to the small/electrically powered/slow recon UUVs we are desighning large/nuclear powered/fast UUVs)

[Onkel Neal]

Oh wow, that's.... scary and impressive. I always think, whatever we know about now, must be several years behind what the military is capable of now.

[ikalugin]

If you keep yourself informed you know more or less where things stand.

In terms of nuclear submersibles - we are working both on autonomous UUVs and on the power generation modules for deployable sensor networks. For both of those we are gettin the mothersubs.

[Skybird]

The problem with swarms is about their inherent limitations - for example in terms of onboard energy generation for propulsion/weapons.
That is no limitation for a swarm per se, but for the individual unit. Once a unit has overcome that limit, many units building swarms can be build. And will.


As to switching to unmanned UUV motherships - ethics force you to keep a man in the loop.Ethics are just an idea and thus enforce nothing. And will not. Its war technology we talk of. Since when have ethics stopped mankind from using tools for war that can be used for war? Or have stopped mankind to wage war in the first? War is mankind's favourite hobby.

An then there is the chance I mentioned earlier: that AI already has reached a status wehre now it developes and unfolds all by itself as a self-emerging structure in the menaing of how this term is use din chaos theory. I think the inner dynamic canot be stopped anymore. And what technologically an done, will be done, in all regards. History shows that in dramatic clarity.

At least as long as no Mister named Butler strolls by and launches his jihad.

A small reference to Frank Herbert's Dune novels. :)

[AVGWarhawk]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=BjRG0CDNSxk

Listen to those Perdix swarm at the end of the video. Imagine if you were on a sub underwater and heard that noise as AUV's swarmed about before the kill. Sounds like something right out of a horror film.

This is diabolical!!

[Rockstar]

In an SSN you can always outrun those light UUVs, decoy them (remember small size = poor sensors and processing power) and so on and so forth. Under water you then get the comms problem, that is - it is hard to make a good and stealthy comm system for under water (though I guess there was decent work done on green lasers).

Mmm I dont know, if have to you pick up speed to out run something then its too late, you've been discovered and another can easily find you. As far as sensors go, they are not all that 'poor'. Commercial research firms already use magnetometers in their drones. I can only imagine but I'm sure U.S. and Russian navies are aware of this and have developed MAD designs that can easily fit in a suitable drone.

[ikalugin]

That is no limitation for a swarm per se, but for the individual unit. Once a unit has overcome that limit, many units building swarms can be build. And will.If a single unit cannot move at 30 knots for multiple hours then the swarm can't either.

Thus physical limitations (in propulsion, weapons and sensors) limit the usefullness of the swarms and thus limit their applications.

Mmm I dont know, if have to you pick up speed to out run something then its too late, you've been discovered and another can easily find you. As far as sensors go, they are not all that 'poor'. Commercial research firms already use magnetometers in their drones. I can only imagine but I'm sure U.S. and Russian navies are aware of this and have developed MAD designs that can easily fit in a suitable drone. The only reason why it is too late nowadays to run when you are detected is because weapons outrun platforms reliably (and even that can be debated on case to case grounds).
In case of swarmer UUVs and SSNs - SSNs, ie platforms can outrun UUVs, ie the weapons. And speed is only one of those problems.

The other one is about the sensors - small individual vehicles in the swarm imply small individual apperture (and power if we are talking about active sensors, but those are less relevant in the ASW nowadays). Unless you can create a synthetic aperture sensor (which needs processing power and comms) those UUVs would have more problems than large SSNs. While you can argue about processing power either way - the comms are physics limited.

I mean there is a reason why now modern SSNs (ie Astute class) get massive sensor apertures (towed and those side mounted apertures).

TLDR - new tech is cool and exciting, but then people overestimate importance of technology on the human activies in general and war specifically.

[ikalugin]

On the topic of UUVs.

One of the most common ways UUVs are presently used in combat roles is mine hunting. However since early 00s (when mine hunting UUVs became a thing) we can already see the full dialectical circle happening, with the shift from the recon+killer UUV combo to the unmanned trawlers due to the introduction of counter UUV means.

[Mr Quatro]

I've heard autonomous technology is the biggest thing since the Manhatten Project. You could probably buy a dozen autonomous subs for half the price of one seawolf.

Agreed, plus drone submarines don't have men inside and in just five more years anyone's navy will be able to use a drone sub to ward off intruders into their waters.

Just a few months ago we had a visitor from Canada interested in the piping diagrams for the USS Nautilus ... he was probably successful in his quest, but not from us. That data is probably already in Iran and North Korea.

Five (5) more years till they have a submarine drone that can kill you.
Five (5) more years till their Admirals ask permission to take out one of ours sneaking around their harbors.

We need more drones without men that can get the job done and those drones need a surface combat ship to protect them.

I hope that politics doesn't dictate the use of our submarines, but I can't continue to hold to that hope for much longer.

[Rockstar]

I reckon another reason why they stopped building the big bad wolf is even they , the quietist submarine on the planet, will soon not be able to escape the advances in detection technology.

http://www.defensetech.org/2015/02/11/report-u-s-undersea-dominance-is-in-jeopardy/?mobile=1

Enter the autonomous drone wars.

[eddie]

New class of sub being built.

https://www.cnet.com/pictures/all-aboard-the-navys-new-2-7b-nuclear-submarine/?ftag=ACQ63afa6d&vndid=00b6ad3ef19f879d9780065f2bf12d93b5

[Mr Quatro]

New class of sub being built.

https://www.cnet.com/pictures/all-aboard-the-navys-new-2-7b-nuclear-submarine/?ftag=ACQ63afa6d&vndid=00b6ad3ef19f879d9780065f2bf12d93b5

You need a submarine without air in it ... I don't know a lot about sonar, but I think that's where the ping on active sonar might be coming from.

Come to think of it ... our submarines could use drones for decoy's and miss-leading surface craft active or passive sonars.

There's the future ... drones for submarines. :up:

[Rockstar]

We need autonomous machines. "Since humanity will be unable to unite itself to a point where it wishes to put others before itself, it may be left to a machine to calculate the best course of action in a situation.
Of course, such a machine would have to be strictly protected from outside interference and yet have enough awareness of outside matters to be able to make decisions based on all the information that it receives, and there is a Massive ethical problem since a machine will not take things such as empathy or emotions into account when making decisions. Decisions would be cool and calculating and it may decide to sacrifice sections of society in order to preserve more useful other sections."

Just as long its our autonomous machines protecting our section of society I'm all for it! :D

[mapuc]

I can very well imagine unmanned mini subs that can travel with a speed of 70-80 knots without any cavitation and they have developed torpedo that is only 1/20 of the size of todays MK 48 torpedo and the speed is about 100 knots and its 10 times stronger in explosion(I forgot what all these technical things are called while I wrote this comment)

Markus

[ikalugin]

I can very well imagine unmanned mini subs that can travel with a speed of 70-80 knots without any cavitation and they have developed torpedo that is only 1/20 of the size of todays MK 48 torpedo and the speed is about 100 knots and its 10 times stronger in explosion(I forgot what all these technical things are called while I wrote this comment)

Markus
Does it use dilithium?

[Catfish]

Does it use dilithium?

:haha::har:
I guess at that time one would simply beam the bomb aboard the other's ship and be done with it.


But i thought arms race is about willy-waving, so where have the times gone that the biggest usually won :hmmm: