Venezuela sliding into anarchy

[Onkel Neal]

Every day it gets worse for the South American country. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/the-monetary-meltdown-in-venezuela/2016/12/02/094daa50-b80e-11e6-a677-b608fbb3aaf6_story.html?utm_term=.632972d6a72d)
Paying for even the most trivial of purchases requires carrying around huge, Pablo Escobar-style stacks of bank notes. A Coke, if you can find it, will set you back 1,200 bolivars — 12 of the biggest bills. Lunch at a simple restaurant? At least 40 of those bills. Even a subsidized school lunch costs you at least 20 top-denomination bills. You can see how the numbers get out of hand fast.

It wasn't long ago that many were applauding the leadership of this country (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/cifamerica/2009/feb/02/venezuela-hugo-chavez-anniversary-election).


When a country goes socialist and it craters, it is laughed off as a harmless and forgettable cautionary tale about the perils of command economics. When, by contrast, a country goes socialist and its economy does what Venezuela’s did, it is not perceived to be a laughing matter – and it is not so easy to write off or to ignore. It suddenly looks like a threat to the corporate capitalism, especially when said country has valuable oil resources that global powerhouses like the United States rely on.
http://www.salon.com/2013/03/06/hugo_chavezs_economic_miracle/

Not so much of a threat now.

[Skybird]

Karma. The inescapable causal link between cause and effect. You cannot bypass, declare void, ignore the market'S natural laws - you just cannot. The market always catches up with your fizzy intellectual acrobatics. It always has the final word on the bills's totals to be paid. It always makes you pay what you owe. Ideology never can break or distort it. You can delay - but you cannot hide.

People just do not want to believe that. They comfortably prefer to believe in angels and fairy tales relieving them of what is their karma. And that you can take more out of the pot without ever putting back similiar ammounts. But if you always take more than you put back, you end up in problems.

Its so simple but for many: so unwelcomed a truth.

Europe over the going of this century will go the same way like Venezuela - and maybe much earlier than many today think possible. The Euro, the EU - it all maybe could be over faster than most could imagine. Like 1989 - that also caught almost everybody by surprise - first, because it happened, and second: because of the breathtaking pace of events.

Regarding Venezuela, the market does what it is. The people will suffer what they must. The more things were off balance, the more painful any necessary (and in the end: unavoidable) correction will be.

"Credit is preceded consumption that thus will not be available in the future to come." - Ludwig von Mises. What is so difficult in this to understand...? (Kredit ist vorgezogener Konsum, der in der Zukunft ausfällt.)

[propbeanie]

“The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.”


― Margaret Thatcher (http://www.goodreads.com/author/show/198468.Margaret_Thatcher)

[HW3]

:agree:

[Jimbuna]

“The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.”


― Margaret Thatcher (http://www.goodreads.com/author/show/198468.Margaret_Thatcher)

The Iron Maiden was seldom wrong :yep:

[mapuc]

Can't remember which year, month or day, when Swedish TV had a documentary about Venezuela and how great the politicians in Venezuela had done to the country, there where even some Swedish politicians who gave a big plus for this great experience. Today these Swedish people is silence

Markus

[Rockstar]

The Iron Maiden was seldom wrong :yep:


Iron Maiden?
http://images5.fanpop.com/image/photos/25700000/-Iron-Maiden-music-25786593-500-313.jpg
I thought she was known as the Iron Lady.

[Jimbuna]

Iron Maiden?

I thought she was known as the Iron Lady.

You are quite correct, my mistook :oops:

[ikalugin]

I wonder if the oil prices had anything to do with their problems.

By the way did anyone see estimates for other petrolstates (other than Russia that is) in terms of predicted economic performance (ie for Saudis&co)?

[Rockstar]

I dont believe its just the current fall in oil thats causing our southern neighbors such problems. Though Im sure some will be inclined to try fit and label the box for blame on far-right/left wing populist nationalist ideology and hitler, lol.

Back in the late 1980s, the economists Rudiger Dornbusch & Sebastian Edwards described how countries such as Venezuela which pursue highly expansionary populist policies to the detriment of public finances typically go through four distinct phases in what might be called a “boom-bust” cycle. This is their description of Phase 3:

Phase III: Pervasive shortages, extreme acceleration of inflation, and an obvious foreign exchange gap lead to capital flight and demonetization of the economy. The budget deficit deteriorates violently because of a steep decline in tax collection and increasing subsidy costs. The government attempts to stabilize by cutting subsidies and by a real depreciation. Real wages fall massively, and politics become unstable. It becomes clear that the government has lost.

This is why Moody’s has been too generous to Venezuela. The balance of payments problem is merely the trigger for a massive fiscal, economic and ultimately political crisis that can only end in one way – the disorderly collapse of the regime. Whether this will take the form of a revolution, a military coup or simple chaos remains to be seen. But what we are witnessing is the destruction of Venezuela’s economy. And that destruction is not, fundamentally, because of external factors. It is a direct consequence of the economic policies pursued by the Chavez and Maduro regimes.

Over the last fifteen years, the Venezuelan government has nationalized hundreds of companies and seized assets on a massive scale. Many of those seizures have been the subject of expensive litigation in international courts: the most recent case was Exxon's award of $1.6bn in compensation for expropriation of its Venezuelan oil projects. Often, these nationalizations have come in response to falling production due to government price and exchange controls. For example, production in Venezuela's car industry dropped by 85% between January 2013 and January 2014: in February 2014, Toyota suspended production for six weeks citing inability to import parts, resulting in calls from trades unions for the industry to be nationalized. All too often, the Venezuelan government has given in to such calls, rather than addressing the underlying problems.

Widespread nationalization of private enterprises and seizure of assets discourages both domestic entrepreneurialism and foreign investment, and nationalized companies too often end up less efficient and less productive than they were when in private hands. The Venezuelan government has mismanaged its nationalized oil industry, resulting in revenues far below what would reasonably be expected from its vast oil reserves, and misallocated those disappointing revenues into the bargain: instead of using the revenues to diversify its economy and develop domestic production in other sectors, it has diverted them into politically popular but unproductive social programs and distortionary price controls and subsidies. Consequently, Venezuela has become far too dependent on oil revenues, its fiscal finances are in a parlous state and its industry is highly inefficient.

It was in a mess long before the present fall in oil prices.

[propbeanie]

Iron Maiden?
http://images5.fanpop.com/image/photos/25700000/-Iron-Maiden-music-25786593-500-313.jpg
I thought she was known as the Iron Lady.
man... I thought you were posting some tunes... sigh...

[Aktungbby]

The Iron Maiden was seldom wrong :yep:
The Iron Maiden was never wrong!:k_confused: https://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/s--U_fpWiOq--/c_fit,fl_progressive,q_80,w_636/i6to91bqkiasytgkizpo.jpg Especially when you've had a glass too many at Castile di Amorosa winery-NAPA... in the torture chamber! https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4d/Castello-di-Amorosa-iron-maiden.jpg:Kaleun_Cheers: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Castello_di_Amorosa (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Castello_di_Amorosa)

[Sailor Steve]

Please try to stay on topic.

[Reece]

Why??:hmmm:

[Onkel Neal]

For the sake of discussing the topic. We have plenty of joke threads.

[eddie]

I can't imagine what its like for the people there just trying to feed their families and keep a roof over their heads. Whole thing is sad.

[Aktungbby]

IT's getting worse! as the 'Iron Maiden:O: of Hunger' rears her ugly head: "Lately, food is a better business than drugs," said retired Gen. Cliver Alcala, who helped oversee border security.
...the military is making money from it, an Associated Press investigation shows. That’s what grocer Jose Campos found when he ran out of pantry staples this year. In the middle of the night, he would travel to an illegal market run by the military to buy pallets of corn flour — at 100 times the government-set price.
“The military would be watching over whole bags of money,” Campos said. “They always had what I needed.”
With much of the country on the verge of starvation and billions of dollars at stake, food trafficking has become one of the biggest businesses in Venezuela, the AP found. And from generals to foot soldiers, the military is at the heart of the graft, according to documents and interviews with more than 60 officials, business owners and workers, including five former generals.
As a result, food is not reaching those who most need it. http://www.dailyjournal.net/2016/12/28/lt-venezuela-undone-profiting-from-hunger/ (http://www.dailyjournal.net/2016/12/28/lt-venezuela-undone-profiting-from-hunger/) http://s2.reutersmedia.net/resources/r/?m=02&d=20160520&t=2&i=1138083980&w=&fh=&fw=&ll=780&pl=468&sq=&r=LYNXNPEC4J19Bhttps://d.ibtimes.co.uk/en/full/1533458/venezuela-economy.jpg?w=400

[Rockstar]

I can't imagine what its like for the people there just trying to feed their families and keep a roof over their heads. Whole thing is sad.

Travelling to the country of "21st Century Socialism*"? Be warned.

Venezuela has one of the world's highest crime rates, including one of the highest homicide rates. Violent crime - including murder, armed robbery, kidnapping, and carjacking - is endemic throughout the country. Armed robberies and street crime take place throughout Caracas and other cities, including in areas frequented by tourists. Heavily armed criminals are known to use grenades and assault rifles to commit crimes at banks, shopping malls, public transportation stations, and universities. Criminals may take advantage of power outages to target victims when lights and security alarms are nonfunctional. Drug traffickers and illegal armed groups are active in the Colombian border states of Zulia, Tachira, and Apure.

The political and security situation in Venezuela is unpredictable and can change quickly. Political rallies and demonstrations occur with little notice, and are expected to occur with greater frequency in the coming months in Caracas and throughout the country. Long lines to purchase basic goods are a common occurrence throughout the country and there have been reports of unrest and violence while customers wait, sometimes resulting in looted stores and blocked streets. These incidents elicit a strong police and security force response that can include the use of violence against participants; several deaths have been reported during such protests. Due to shortages of some food and medical supplies, U.S. citizens should be prepared to cover their own needs while in country. In the event that the security climate worsens, U.S. citizens should be responsible for arranging their own travel out of Venezuela.

* The term ‘21st century socialism’ was coined by Mexican sociologist Heinz Dieterich Steffan, who served as an adviser to Chavez for several years but fell out with him in 2011. It conveys the idea that Venezuela is pioneering a new and exciting ‘socialism’ for the new century, based on grassroots participation, in contrast to the stodgy bureaucratic ‘socialism’ (what we call state capitalism) of the 20th century.

[eddie]

I'm glad I don't have any interest in going down there. Just wish the people could get the basics they need to survive without getting killed over it.

[Platapus]

Governments cause problems but always seem to be the last affected by their actions.

It is the people that suffer.

[Rockstar]

The road to hell is paved with good intentions.

[kraznyi_oktjabr]

“The Chavistas had good intentions. At first, they helped the poor more than any government had ever done before” said the taxi driver Lopez. “The problem is, good intentions are not enough.”That sums it up quite well and certainly is applicable in many other political projects.

Excerpt comes from The Guardian's article "Venezuela on the brink: a journey through a country in crisis (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/11/venezuela-on-the-brink-a-journey-through-a-country-in-crisis)" (published on Tuesday 11 October 2016) which paints rather bleak picture of situation. Currently it looks like the rollercoaster down the rabbit hole keeps going with no happy ending in sight.

[Skybird]

Governments cause problems but always seem to be the last affected by their actions.

It is the people that suffer.
Its the people electing politicians and bringing governments into power, and staying loyal, obedient, servile. So all too often the people suffer from the government what they deserve - except those who never supported the government and never legitimated it.

You are not only free to vote during an election, in the West at least. You are also to be held accountable for your vote. This is often opportunistically ignored.

You get what you vote for. You harvest as you have sown. You get shot with the crows you have choosen to fly with. No right to complain.

[Onkel Neal]

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/ct-venezuela-food-trafficking-20161228-story.html


This is why is doesn't hurt to be a little bit of a prepper. I mean, if you had a few months supply of canned food, at least you wouldn't have to scrounge or wait all day in lines to avoid starvation.

[Skybird]

Earlier this year, the German government has formally revived official announcements that German households should stockpile food, water and vital stuff to hold out for 2-3 weeks in case of national emergencies. It has fallen out of vogue in past decades to do so - since the cold war ended. Cold war times werre the last times Germans were called to stockpile some reserves, and prepping was seen as exaggerated acting by hysteric drama queens in the past 25 years. For the same reaosn, the poublic wanrign siren systems has been dismantled in Germany, which would have been used to alarm the public in case of atomic or chemical disasters, or air attacks from Iwan's direction.

The need to stockpile reserves these days again, formally was founded on the worstening of Western relations to Russia. But I suspect it also serves another scenario: the economic turmoil and possible temporary breakdown of business and trade of supplies in case of currency problems, namely a collapse of the Euro system. More and more voices dare to leave their hiding and giving estimations that the Euro will not last for longer than another five years at max. I'm not sure, but it is possible, even realistic.

A breakdown of the digital basis of cashless financial transcations due to terror or military cyber attacks, also is a possible scenario.

[kraznyi_oktjabr]

Skybird,

There is also scenario of cyber attack against logistics systems. In Finland one of our then big three (well, smallest) grocery store chain's shops ran out of many supplies because computer system used to manage and order supplies had failed. There was no plan B as that would have required maintaining workforce sitting idle when everything works fine. They also didn't know how much and what supplies their warehouses had. There was no foul play involved in that instance but it is not difficult to recreate that situation with cyber attack.

Same of course applies to electronic payment systems (primarily debit cards) which actually have been under attack and/or disabled every now and then. In those cases possession of cash is very good thing and I personally maintain small stockpile for such situations.

Ofcourse in situation like Venezuela there isn't that much difference wheter money is in cash or electronic format. Although latter is somewhat more convenient where it is accepted.

[Skybird]

You give another example for why I say that the next currency turmoils like in the late 20s last century will catch us much harder than back then. The infrastructure back then was such that the ripples and shockwaves worked slowly through the system, a system which limited the reach of these shockwaves somewhat anyway. Today, digitalization and globalization will multiply the speed of such events, any shockfront will hit us harder and more surprising and faster - and it will affect even more people, since specialisation and global trade chains a.) have dramatically reduced the keeping of reserves for emergencies, and b.) many more people are embedded and woven into the logistcs chain, the production chain, the trading chain. More people = more possible chances for failure, comparing to a chain with more links that could be weak, and break up. The likelihood of disastrous errors and breakdowns thus is much higher, and the consequences of even smaller mistakes are even bigger.

Add to this that many more "civilised" people today do not know how to plant food and when and how to harvest, do not know and have no skill and no permission to hunt, do not know and have never learned how to keep themselves alive by the land alone.

Any measures by any government to prevent mass starvation and total continetal disaster, will necessarily be of highly criminal nature themselves, violating basic human rights and former constitutional guarantees - else the lid could not be kept on the pressure cooker.

This scenario is the worst case scenario I fear most - and see as the most likely one. Compared to this main feature, terror bloodbaths like in Berlin or Paris, are relatively harmless supporting movies only, easy to not be affected by. Bright lights and loud sounds let them appear as bigger than they are. I fear central banks, finance ministers and politicians in general much, much more than any bomb-laying terrorist. And I say that as someone who has experienced a terror bomb attack live myself when I was young, 1986, I know how that feels.

[Bigblock-Fempower 427]

"Credit is preceded consumption that thus will not be available in the future to come." - Ludwig von Mises. What is so difficult in this to understand...? (Kredit ist vorgezogener Konsum, der in der Zukunft ausfällt.)[/QUOTE]

So true so true, the nature of closed systems. Skybird:

'Ewig Ist Manchmal Zu Lang',
( Thank you Helene Fischer! I love that relativity)

Der Lange verlorenen sohn aus Norwegen hier... Sie können erraten? Bar gesichten und beziehungsprobleme , merken? Entschuldigung für die Pause... gelinde gesagt... manchmal dinge passieren, ... leben werden eine Herausforderung, und In den letzten Jahren in mehreren Aspekten mehr als ein Schluck, und die geistige Konzentration wurde folglich geschädigt und begrenzt

Ok I give in on German now, the syntax are probably already messed up... OK, Snowman from the ruins of the extirpated F4 Community here.
Miss you man! Give me a go and I'll continue.

Sorry Onkel Neal for the off topic as introduction post

[Aktungbby]

Bigblock-Fempower 427!:Kaleun_Salute:

[Onkel Neal]

I can't imagine what its like for the people there just trying to feed their families and keep a roof over their heads. Whole thing is sad.

Yeah, this is a nightmare for the people there.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/12/30/world/americas/venezuela-hyperinflation-100-bolivar-maduro.html

President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela made a baffling announcement on Dec. 11, saying that his government intended to yank the 100 bolívar note from circulation in three days to thwart a supposed plot to hoard Venezuelan currency abroad. Any 100 bolívar bills that were not exchanged at the central bank within 10 days would become worthless. The result of this reckless decision was predictable.

Venezuelans, who have endured months of chronic food and medicine shortages, mobbed banks and A.T.M.s in a desperate attempt to offload their stacks of the highest denomination bill, which has become so devalued it is now worth roughly 3 cents in American dollars.

Shops and merchants stopped accepting the note, all but paralyzing an economy wrecked by years of abysmal mismanagement. Looting and riots erupted in several cities.

Although prices are rising, food can be cheap at the subsidized government price, if you can find it. Parents line up before dawn to wait for hours for the chance to buy flour, milk and baby formula for their family at official prices. But the lines have also become easy targets for robberies, forcing some to weigh hunger against the threat of violence.


Without getting too far off topic, it's this kind of seat-of-the-pant autocratic leadership style that worries me with our incoming president.

[Skybird]

So true so true, the nature of closed systems. Skybird:

'Ewig Ist Manchmal Zu Lang',
( Thank you Helene Fischer! I love that relativity)

Der Lange verlorenen sohn aus Norwegen hier... Sie können erraten? Bar gesichten und beziehungsprobleme , merken? Entschuldigung für die Pause... gelinde gesagt... manchmal dinge passieren, ... leben werden eine Herausforderung, und In den letzten Jahren in mehreren Aspekten mehr als ein Schluck, und die geistige Konzentration wurde folglich geschädigt und begrenzt

Ok I give in on German now, the syntax are probably already messed up... OK, Snowman from the ruins of the extirpated F4 Community here.
Miss you man! Give me a go and I'll continue.

Sorry Onkel Neal for the off topic as introduction post
Snowman...? :D Holy cow, it must be ten years or so, or even more - or not...? Hope you still prawl the Norwegian wilderness and scare the hell out of what back then was not yet called the politically correct, but meanwhile is called like that today?

Did not know you even are still alive! :D :salute:

Edit: F4, eh? Must be definitely more than ten years then. The world is a village.

[Bigblock-Fempower 427]

Oh yes, 10 years +. I am still holding on to 'healthy' controversy. Much have changed in our societies since then and the acceptance for such has been further degraded. Among a few other things that might stir the emotions beyond prescribed levels of comfort. Which are l-o-w. This thread have shed lights on some of the issues concerned.

Salute back.

Nice place here, I have not yet fully explored the site, I stumbled upon it a few weeks ago.

[Bigblock-Fempower 427]

Bigblock-Fempower 427!:Kaleun_Salute:

Thanks for the welcome. I appreciate it. This place reminds of the spirit we had in the old Falcon 4.0 forums eons ago. I salute back

[Jimbuna]

Welcome to SubSim Bigblock-Fempower 427 :Kaleun_Salute:

[Bigblock-Fempower 427]

Thank you Jimbuna, salute, feels good to be aboard

[Bigblock-Fempower 427]

Its the people electing politicians and bringing governments into power, and staying loyal, obedient, servile. So all too often the people suffer from the government what they deserve - except those who never supported the government and never legitimated it.

You are not only free to vote during an election, in the West at least. You are also to be held accountable for your vote. This is often opportunistically ignored.

You get what you vote for. You harvest as you have sown. You get shot with the crows you have choosen to fly with. No right to complain.

Oh yes, I guess we touched upon this issue years ago, and I have discussed the same with friends here, although in the beginning some balk temporarily due to the simplicity of the idea...

'Every drop of rain feel it is not responsible for the flood'

A quote I saw on the net once.

Liability(yes really) of actions, liability of choices, liability in voting. Cause and effect.

As previously mentioned, in any multiparty free democratically principled society, there is a direct trace and track of responsibility from the very voting booths right up to the current politics applied. No politician has gravitated upwards to power positions without voters cooperation and support...

True power is not an issue of quality, it is an issue of quantity.

Politicians are thrusted upwards by the critical mass of action known as public opinion. The so called majority. Majority rules, and they rule over politicians as well. Politicians yield to power, like any other rational organism. Apply enough pressure on anything that lives, and it will yield in the opposite direction, if the force is applied generously. Just look at how politicians change opinions in certain matters as public pressure increase. The option or alternative in not yielding is unthinkable for them, translated practically as removal from power.

It is that easy, the majority choose it's own destiny, sign it, and receive it. That simple. And there is no refund if the choices are grave enough. History provides loads of lessons.

[Onkel Neal]

Venezuela Pulls Spanish-Language CNN From the Air for ‘Distorting the Truth’ (http://fortune.com/2017/02/16/venezuela-trump-cnn-espanol/)

The crisis deepens, "fake news" is another casualty. :03:

[Onkel Neal]

General Motors Quits Venezuela After Officials Seize Plant
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/general-motors-says-venezuelan-officials-illegally-seize-plant-n748741

The auto giant did not provide any details about its plant being seized, other than saying it "was unexpectedly taken by authorities, preventing normal operations." It said other assets, "such as vehicles," had also been stripped from the site.

Venezuela's Information Ministry did not immediately respond to a request for information, according to Reuters.

As a result of the seizure, GM announced an "immediate cessation of its operations in the country."

Tough luck, GM. You should've seen this coming.

[Jimbuna]

Rgr that :yep:

[Onkel Neal]

Venezuela: We can't pay our debts anymore (http://money.cnn.com/2017/11/02/news/economy/venezuela-debt-restructuring/index.html)

Maduro said in a televised speech Thursday that Venezuela and its state-run oil company, PDVSA, will seek to restructure their debt payments.
The oil company made a $1.1 billion payment on Thursday, he said, a sizable amount for a country with only $10 billion left in the bank. "But after this payment, starting today, I decree a refinancing and a restructuring of the external debt," Maduro told the country.

Venezuela is already deep into a humanitarian crisis, with people suffering from food and medical shortages. Many can't afford to buy basic items because prices are skyrocketing faster than wages. The country's currency, the bolivar, is worth less than a tenth of a U.S. penny.

If Maduro's government can't reach a new agreement with bondholders over the debt restructuring -- which often means trying to pay less money -- it will end up defaulting.

That would trigger a potentially ugly series of events.

Investors in the U.S. and elsewhere could seize Venezuelan oil as collateral.
Oil is the government's only significant source of external revenue and therefore its only way to buy food and medicine for its 30 million citizens. Because the government mismanaged vast swaths of farmland, it must import almost all food.

Socialism. You get what you pay for.

[Onkel Neal]

https://www.nbcnews.com/video/venezuela-s-economic-meltdown-takes-toll-on-venezuelans-1331679299836

Everything there is now on the breaking down snowball effect.

[Onkel Neal]

Flames of revolution spreading
https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/30/americas/gallery/venezuela-crisis/index.html

Pompeo claims Russia stopped Maduro leaving Venezuela for Cuba
https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/30/politics/pompeo-maduro-russia/index.html

[Mr Quatro]

Send in the Marines or at least food and medical supplies :yep:

[em2nought]

Gee, isn't socialism swell! I wish the people good luck in their unfortunate present, and more sense the next time around. I hope our citizens, particularly our young citizens, are paying attention to this one.

[ikalugin]

Another regime change operation in South America, I wonder if they would have any helicopter memes.

[ikalugin]

https://russianmilitaryanalysis.wordpress.com/2019/05/01/drivers-of-russian-grand-strategy/
May be of interest in the context of alleged Russian participation in the whole Venezuela crisis.

[mapuc]

In the news at 4, I heard the minister of foreign affairs in USA saying USA are prepared to intervene military in Venezuela if needed.

If my memory doesn't play tricks on me, I seem to remember I made a thread about that.

Markus

[ikalugin]

Well that would be music to our ears.

[Rockstar]

I do believe it was the Venezuelan National Assembly, not the U.S., which declared Guaido president. The list of countries supporting that decision continues to grow. If Russia wants to spend the resources to support Maduro, go for it. But I think it would be a losing battle to do so.

[ikalugin]

I do believe it was the Venezuelan National Assembly, not the U.S., which declared Guaido president. The list of countries supporting that decision continues to grow. If Russia wants to spend the resources to support Maduro, go for it. But I think it would be a losing battle to do so.
Well, if you believe that they had the legitimate authority to do so, sure.


The point I was making was that should US be stuck in a local conflict in Venezuela for the next 15 years, should Brazil suddenly be in need for weapons we can sell them, well, you know how we would feel about it.


A little nudge here and there with advisors, a little buisness or two not being bothered by the authorities for working there for profit can't really harm us.

[mapuc]

I think I have mentioned it before.

If I was Maduro I would ask Mr. Putin to send some "Military advisor" to his country.

I would be a little nervous about the possibility USA intervene my country, ´cause I know my own military would be no match them.

By inviting Russian military, the chance of an intervention of my country would be low.

I know my imagination have run wild.

Markus

[ikalugin]

We have already sent some inspection teams to accertain what is actually happening with his forces, in addition to routine stuff related to their previous arms purchases.


I doubt there would be any major operation.

[em2nought]

We have already sent some inspection teams to accertain what is actually happening with his forces

The sad part of this new liberal democrat cold war brought on by the fact that Russia is predominately "old white men who aren't communist anymore" is probably that if the USA had one last chance at really successful nation and ally building, helping Russia out some was probably it.


A strong Russian Republic, would have been a nice ally to have. Emphasis on "Republic".

[Rockstar]

Considering we and others in the global community recognize the Venezuelan National Assembly constitutional authority I think we're prepared to go the distance. Not wanting to seem as though I under estimate Russian will and perseverance as it does very good job at throwing its weight around in its own geopolitical sphere. Contrary to what our own media has been spewing since 2016 Russia just isn't the world power it once was and it really can't afford to start a proxy war in my back yard.

[vienna]

Your backyards in Venezuela? Damn, that must make gardening a bit of a bitch... :D










<O>

[Skybird]

The volume and quality of the Russian military engagement in Venezuela varies widely, according to the media you listen to. It ranges rom "just some advisors" to "several thousand combat troops." Between these two descriptions, everything seems possible to be the truth.

Russia hardly plans to fight a hard war over there, but it wants to keep a foot in the door and wants to stir unrest and destabilization - right because it is the US backyard. Being an itching point that the US cannot scratch - thats what it is about. Also, Russia has made quite some financial investments in Venezuela.

Anyway, I do not care for their interests - the economic dilettante Maduro has completed the task begun by the other dilettante Chavez - to ruin the country completely and annihilate what was left of its economy. He must be replaced, in any way, and whether Putin likes that or not, must not matter. Problem is that the military leadership benefits directly from supporting the Maduro regime, the generals are quite corrupt and private financial interests are what rules their loyalty. The US is not so much liked in South America, it is probably best advise to recommend self moderation else relations to other SA countries may worsten as well. A military campaign by the US I would only consider if Russia goes into that direction as well - but then in overwhelming strength and decisevely. I dont think anyone wants that - not in Washington, and not in Moscow.

[ikalugin]

Well, Iraq wasn't a proxy war between Russia and USA yet USA got stuck there for a long time. And I doubt that Lybia style scenario is preferable either.


As to our participation - apart from inspection teams (so that we know what is actually happening there, taking the locals word at face value sounds like a bad idea) and the teams on the old procurement contracts (ie when they got their SAMs they got a training team to go with them) we would probably turn a blind eye to any enterprising private entities going there as long as they do not go against Russian interests.
The later group could be quite numerous depending on how much money Maduro can gather.

[Rockstar]

I've heard a plane was waiting on the tarmac ready to fly Maduro out. The delay I think is Russia scrambling to lawyer up and legally protect their financial investments. But rumors of a proxy war with Russian weapons, surface to air missiles and advisors? Highly highly doubtful like I said Russia isn't stupid. A relatively stable Venezuelan government and economy is the solution that benefits all parties and most importantly Venezuelans. That's the direction it needs to go and will go.


Maduro drove the Venezuelan economy into the dirt rigged an election and the National Assembly voted and said adios Maduro Na na na na, na na na na, hey hey hey, goodbye

[Mr Quatro]

The sad part of this new liberal democrat cold war brought on by the fact that Russia is predominately "old white men who aren't communist anymore" is probably that if the USA had one last chance at really successful nation and ally building, helping Russia out some was probably it.


A strong Russian Republic, would have been a nice ally to have. Emphasis on "Republic".

It's just a chess game to Russia (spelled Putin) :yep:

Venezuela
US Politics
Syrian conflict
Africa
Artic
Bombers flying close to San Francisco
Fighter jets buzzing USN ships

[ikalugin]

I've heard a plane was waiting on the tarmac ready to fly Maduro out.
And you are sure that this was not a PSYOP move to undermine Maduro's efforts? :)
But rumors of a proxy war with Russian weapons, surface to air missiles and advisors? Highly highly doubtful like I said Russia isn't stupid
Those are already there, we have sold plenty of weapons there.

[ikalugin]

It's just a chess game to Russia (spelled Putin) :yep:

Venezuela
US Politics
Syrian conflict
Africa
Artic
Bombers flying close to San Francisco
Fighter jets buzzing USN ships
Do I need to mention US operations such as flying strategic bombers out of UK and into the Baltics?

[ikalugin]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D5nxGXaWsAAP-R1?format=jpg&name=4096x4096
Bolton overriding USIC.

[ikalugin]

Allegedly Venezuella pulled out "Trust" like operation in regards to the US operatives in the country.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Trust

[Onkel Neal]

This is the leader of the UK liberal party, yeah? Wth are "neoliberal economics" ?

Jeremy Corbyn, the far-left leader of the British Labour Party, was photographed with Chávez and has described his regime in Venezuela as an “inspiration to all of us fighting back against austerity and neoliberal economics.”

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/02/venezuelas-suffering-shows-where-illiberalism-leads/606988/

We have one of those too, Bernie Sanders :haha:

Although to be fair, the style comparison between Chavez and Trump is striking.

[ikalugin]

Bernie is not as bad as Corbyn from what I understand.

[Onkel Neal]

Maybe not but I don't want to find out.

[em2nought]

Bernie and bros are true believers which means it's the gulag for people like me.
https://i.ytimg.com/vi/aGeHPwgLm6Y/hqdefault.jpg

[ikalugin]

Bernie and bros are true believers which means it's the gulag for people like me.



Don't worry, they would become victims of the revolution way before then.


And while purges were real GULAG (or executed) population was not as high as some (ie Solzhenitsyn) portrayed it.