Military coup in Turkey [Archive] - SUBSIM Radio Room Forums

Oberon

07-15-16, 03:37 PM

Didn't Atatürk once said that the role of the army is to oust potential dictators to restore the republic he built after WW1 :hmmm:

Ataturk had a lot of sense, enough sense to take Turkey in the right direction, away from intanglement in religion with the state and into secularism.
Turkey could do with a new Ataturk in this coup, and I say that as someone who nearly didn't exist because of Ataturk. :O:

Don't take it for granted that they'll succeed...:dead::shifty:

I'm hoping that they do, but I fear that there's going to be some unrest in the days to come and no doubt Daesh will take the opportunity to go to town. The PKK might hold off though, to see what stance the military are going to take with them.

Meanwhile, some film and pictures:

Low flying F-16:
https://twitter.com/HazalKoptagel/status/754035715709739008

https://twitter.com/InfobaeAmerica/status/754050062708277249

Tanks (M60s I presume) at Ataturk airport:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CnbsUEPWYAAqOIk.jpg

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CnbpY5hXYAE2uHK.jpg

mapuc

07-15-16, 03:48 PM

If I remember correctly it isn't the first time it happens and I seem to recall some words from a Swedish journalist( said some years ago)

If The Prime Minister in Turkey goes away from Atatürk-way of Turkey there's a huge chance for a coup. (something like that)

Markus

Nippelspanner

07-15-16, 03:50 PM

This is crazy. And about time.

Schroeder

07-15-16, 03:55 PM

Tanks (M60s I presume) at Ataturk airport:

Leopard I.

mapuc

07-15-16, 04:00 PM

As mentioned in this thread there's a lots of information and deinformation about the situation in Turkey right now

I guess we will know in a few days time if this coup was a succes or not and what will be the aftermath due to this.-If it fail.

Markus

Oberon

07-15-16, 04:15 PM

Leopard I.

Oh, nice, even better gear. :yep:

Martial law and a curfew have been announced, and Erdogan, his current location unknown, is expected to issue a statement shortly.

Nippelspanner

07-15-16, 04:18 PM

Oh, nice, even better gear. :yep:

Martial law and a curfew have been announced, and Erdogan, his current location unknown, is expected to issue a statement shortly.
I hope he is spoiling his pants. Furthermore I hope the coup succeeds (it wont :/) and he gets lynched like Mussolini once.

Schroeder

07-15-16, 04:21 PM

I hope he is spoiling his pants. Furthermore I hope the coup succeeds (it wont :/) and he gets lynched like Mussolini once.
I can already hear our politicians lamenting about the evil military trying to oust a democratically elected president....:/\\!!

Besides I'm sure he's had some plans for this case and is probably not even in the country anymore. He is pretty paranoid after all IIRC.

Skybird

07-15-16, 04:21 PM

Any outcome not including Erdoghan is a good outcome. Any outcome.

The EU will go crazy, however. I will find it most amusing.

The military has been massively infoltrated by Erdoghans followers in the past years. The outcome of this is anything but certain.

Oberon

07-15-16, 04:23 PM

I hope he is spoiling his pants. Furthermore I hope the coup succeeds (it wont :/) and he gets lynched like Mussolini once.

Honestly, I wouldn't count the coup out, bear in mind that the military has always been quite Kemalist.
Erdogan won't be lynched though, that would just make him a martyr to his cause, but with any luck he'll be put on trial like Mubarak.

Betonov

07-15-16, 04:24 PM

Any thoughts that someone finally snaped down there due to Nice.
Got tired of Erdogans crap and decided to act.

Nippelspanner

07-15-16, 04:25 PM

Edit: Nevermind, probably fake.

Oberon

07-15-16, 04:26 PM

Edit: Nevermind, probably fake.

I was just about to ponder that, been following this ones:

https://twitter.com/CNNTURK_ENG

https://twitter.com/EsraD

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-36811357

Also:

https://www.reddit.com/live/x9gf3donjlkq/

EDIT: Erdogan has spoken to CNN Turkey via Facetime and has called on people to gather in airpots and squares to stand against the coup.

mapuc

07-15-16, 04:27 PM

Nippelspanner

07-15-16, 04:27 PM

I just want it to be true so much, I didn't bother reading anything further, I just... wanted it. :haha:

Betonov

07-15-16, 04:29 PM

I just want it to be true so much, I didn't bother reading anything further, I just... wanted it. :haha:

I was ready to type ''praise Allah'' when you deleted it for being fake :wah:

em2nought

07-15-16, 04:34 PM

Attention US Military: Don't let Johnny Turk have all the fun, y'all might end up in rainbow colored uniforms next. :up:

Skybird

07-15-16, 04:38 PM

Any thoughts that someone finally snaped down there due to Nice.
Got tired of Erdogans crap and decided to act.
no, such things need time and preparation. months.

Oberon

07-15-16, 04:40 PM

1 Came this ongoing coup as a surprise for you ?

If not, tell me why

2 If a succes( the military takes 100 % control of the country)

What will happen to the region

I'm thinking of

The relationship to wards Israel
The relationship to ward Russia
The relationship to wards Daesh (some say the are working together with them)

Markus

1) Honestly I did not, because I was under the impression (given by some here) that Erdogan had affective control over his armed forces and his dictatorial control was more or less complete.

2) International relations should thaw a little, there will probably be some nashing of teeth about it being a military coup but honestly dealing with a Kemalist military will be a breath of fresh air.
Daesh will get a kicking from Turkey if they poke their heads across the border. Things will Russia won't be too bad, there'll be a bit of tension but nothing serious, things were already starting to calm down recently anyway so the tensions after the shootdown have almost normalised and I doubt that this will change that much.
I'm intrigued as to how things with the PKK are going to work out.

Oh...and here's one for Nippelspanner, Schroeder and Skybird to enjoy...

Reports indicate Erdogan is seeking asylum in Germany... :har:

Nippelspanner

07-15-16, 04:43 PM

If this is true, I want him to be forced to live in Böhmermann's house.
(The guy who wrote that infamous poem about the dear leader and was heavily attacked for it by Erdogan)

Oberon

07-15-16, 04:46 PM

Certainly though this does tell us one thing, that this coup is succeeding, if Erdogan is fleeing this early. This has come up on the Beeb feed:

A European Union source tells the Reuters news agency: "It looks like a relatively well orchestrated coup by a substantial body of the military, not just a few colonels." "They control several strategic points in Istanbul. Given the scale of the operation, it is difficult to imagine they will stop short of prevailing," the source adds.

Unfortunately there have also been reports of explosions, gunfire and skirmishes between the police and military, so this is far from a bloodless coup...but I think we all knew that if it happened it wouldn't be.

Nippelspanner

07-15-16, 04:49 PM

http://img.pr0gramm.com/2016/07/15/0db83caabebc8d6d.jpg

Catfish

07-15-16, 04:50 PM

I just want it to be true so much, I didn't bother reading anything further, I just... wanted it. :haha:

True, Kemal Atatürk intended the military to be the watchdog against dictatorship. After Erdoghan's latest actions against the military, his companies' links to DAESH, and his potentate self portrayal, a coup d'état would make sense.

Please don't tell me it is a fake report :shifty:

Nippelspanner

07-15-16, 04:52 PM

Short but eerie video. http://vid.pr0gramm.com/2016/07/15/8e122549566a194b.mp4

Oberon

07-15-16, 05:05 PM

MSNBC reports that Germany denied Erdogan permission to land.

Helicopter gunships have fired on positions in Ankara, and the head of the army is reportedly dead. Reports indicate that this is a coup lead by the navy and airforce sections of the armed forces. Erdogan has been seen on camera (not facetime) so may be back in Turkey.

danasan

07-15-16, 05:14 PM

MSNBC reports that Germany denied Erdogan permission to land.
SNIP

I want him to be shot. And if not, I want him to be brought to the court in Den Haag. And shot after that.

Oberon

07-15-16, 05:17 PM

Helicopter gunships now firing on the Bosphorus bridge, large pro-Erdogan protests in Istanbuls main square.

EDIT: The pro-Erdogan protests tweet has since been dismissed as fake.

mapuc

07-15-16, 05:17 PM

Oberon

07-15-16, 05:19 PM

When reading your comments more question popped up in my head questions I don't know if you can give an answer to.

Markus

I can always try, but honestly if this years shown us anything is that the unexpected is to be expected.

mapuc

07-15-16, 05:27 PM

I can always try, but honestly if this years shown us anything is that the unexpected is to be expected.

1 Is only some section of the air forces supporting this coup and does the same goes for the Navy ?

2. If not enough support-Could this end more quickly that we thought or could it go into a long battle-maybe a little civil war ?

3. Asking people to enter the streets. have Erdogan a plan for using civilians against trained soldiers - canon fodder so to say ?

Markus

Oberon

07-15-16, 05:45 PM

1 Is only some section of the air forces supporting this coup and does the same goes for the Navy ?

2. If not enough support-Could this end more quickly that we thought or could it go into a long battle-maybe a little civil war ?

3. Asking people to enter the streets. have Erdogan a plan for using civilians against trained soldiers - canon fodder so to say ?

Markus

1. It seems that at least a couple of aircraft and some attack helicopters (presuming that they are reporting to the airforce rather than ground forces) are involved. I've also seen reports of Turkish naval forces clearing the harbour, preparing to set sail for 'somewhere'. Certainly though there does seem to be a large contingent of ground forces in strategic locations in Ankara and Istanbul. The key factor will be how many in the army are pro-Erdogan, enough to rally the police and push the coup forces back could make this a more drawn out affair.

2. It's....sadly possible. The fight back seems to be taking place now, since the initial shock of the coup seems to have worn off, there are lots of pro-Erdogan supporters mobilising, at least one tank has been commandeered and its crew arrested by them, the police forces seem to be pro-Erdogan and are fighting back against the military.
Apparently some mosques are sounding the 'Ezan' the call to prayer, most likely in response to Erdogans call for people to go on the street and resist.
This will go on for at least 24 hours, and there's going to be a lot of confusion overnight as skirmishes continue.
Will it go on longer than a couple of days? That all depends on Erdogan really, if he is shown to have left the country then things might well collapse, but there's going to be a lot of resentment from pro-Erdogan supporters towards the military and that could be displayed in suicide bombings and the like. The shockwaves from this are going to reverberate for a few months to come.

3. Yup, it works in his favour for a couple of ways. The Turkish armed forces are mostly conscript based, so they'll have a link with the common people and thus may be more reluctant to open fire on them when ordered.
Those that do open fire on civilians will be plastered all over the media during gaps in the media blackout and it will be shown as a ruthless military attack on democracy and civilians. The longer Erdogan can spin this out, the more likely it becomes that the coup will fail.

That's how I see it anyway, but honestly at the moment 2016 is basically taking the world and throwing it at the fan, so nothing makes sense any more. Time will tell.

Oberon

07-15-16, 05:52 PM

Tanks moving through the streets of Ankara:

https://twitter.com/miladvisor/status/754081080647487493

Commander of the 1st Army has come out against the coup, and the commander of the Military Special Forces has declared that the coup will fail.

Tank vs crowds:
https://twitter.com/yunuspaksoy/status/754078897189298176?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Things seem very much in the balance right now, could go either way.

EDIT: Social media showing a good insight:

https://www.facebook.com/live

Zoom into Istanbul for many many live feeds from the ground.

mapuc

07-15-16, 06:10 PM

Oberon

07-15-16, 06:11 PM

Sadly...I think that this coup is going to fail, and it's going to empower Erdogan greatly.

mapuc

07-15-16, 06:16 PM

Turkish air force(loyal to coup maker) have shot down a helicopter(Gunship If I understod it correctly)

Markus

Oberon

07-15-16, 06:17 PM

On the Danish News Channel a Danish man living in Turkey was on Skype during the interview with him we could clearly hear fighter jets in the air and a sound that sounded like a machine gun some second later we could hear some explosion

Those sound of machine gun-was this from the ground against the fighter jets or against some other targets on the ground ?

This sound of explosion was it due to some missile send from one of these fighter jets or something ground to ground-thing ?

Markus

Most likely ground fire, probably not at the aircraft though, the only reference I've seen to F-16s attacking anything at the moment is that they have shot down a helicopter which was apparently on the side of the coupists. There's been gunfire between ground forces, mainly the police against the coupists, and there has also been a lot of air to ground fire from attack helicopters which have been hovering around the city. They are the ones that have attacked the Presidential Palace and Intelligence Agency. If I had to guess, given the rate of fire in this video:
https://twitter.com/Nayn_Co/status/754086295186661376

I'd have said it was a Super-Cobra using its chain gun.

Respenus

07-15-16, 06:18 PM

Sadly...I think that this coup is going to fail, and it's going to empower Erdogan greatly.

I am usually not one to believe in conspiracy theories, but this "coup" makes me think that it was organized by Erdogan to put a final nail in the military's coffin and ensure him complete control over the forces of repression in Turkey.

Oberon

07-15-16, 06:19 PM

I am usually not one to believe in conspiracy theories, but this "coup" makes me think that it was organized by Erdogan to put a final nail in the military's coffin and ensure him complete control over the forces of repression in Turkey.

Ordinarily I'd say that such a thing was too far into the tin-hat zone...but this is Erdogan...and quite frankly I wouldn't put it past him. :nope:

Betonov

07-15-16, 06:23 PM

Sure, expect a Slovene to ruin the party :nope:

Respenus

07-15-16, 06:29 PM

Sure, expect a Slovene to ruin the party :nope:

Then you better not talk to our current or previous ambassador there. When I asked him about Erdogan's policy of using false allegations against the military, journalist and civil society (Ergenekon), he just said that it was a small matter of Turkey cleaning house and that we should leave them alone.

mapuc

07-15-16, 06:45 PM

I am usually not one to believe in conspiracy theories, but this "coup" makes me think that it was organized by Erdogan to put a final nail in the military's coffin and ensure him complete control over the forces of repression in Turkey.

Did you know this an ongoing "conspiracy" in turkey

A FB friend have told me that his Turkish friend living in turkey have said the rumour that Erdogan is behind this is growing.

Markus

Oberon

07-15-16, 06:54 PM

F-16s have bombed the parliament building in Ankara, two explosions, very loud, reported live on Fox news Turkey. A Black Hawk and Huey were also operating in the area.

Nippelspanner

07-15-16, 06:54 PM

A FB friend have told me that his Turkish friend living in turkey have said the rumour that Erdogan is behind this is growing.
Yes, exactly because of this, because people are spreading it. However, there is nothing that supports this yet - so I'd keep the ball flat for now.

Oberon

07-15-16, 07:22 PM

Erdogan is landing in Istanbul. Looks like it's over folks.
He's got his Reichstag fire, god help any liberals, secularists or Gulen supporters in Turkey after tonight.

Skybird

07-15-16, 07:37 PM

The AKP has infiltrated the once more secular officer corps systematically with Sultan-loyal apparatschiks and orthodox religious zealots, since years, like they do with media, universities, court and justice. Seems to have paid off.

The coup came many years too late. The military has slept too long. Last but not least thanks to EU and US pressure.

And lets face it, the clear majority of Turks is pro AKP and pro Erdoghan. Only a few metropoles are mixed and oriented towards europe, the tourist cities, but the clear majority of the population outside these places is extremely orthodox religious, and not secular at all. Islam did not go away in the Kemalist era, only held a winter sleep.

Thats how I saw things twenty years ago when I was there for some longer time. I cannot imagine that it has changed for the better since then.

I could even imagine that this "coup" was a staged plot planned by Erdoghan. Malicous enough for that he is.

Torplexed

07-15-16, 07:38 PM

Erdogan is landing in Istanbul. Looks like it's over folks.
He's got his Reichstag fire, god help any liberals, secularists or Gulen supporters in Turkey after tonight.

Yep, in retrospect this botched coup was a bad idea, and will turn out horribly for secular Turkey. Expect even more crackdowns, reprisals, and thuggery aimed at Kurds and honestly, any liberal members of the Turkish government.

However, if it goes too far, I'm thinking Turkey can kiss any hope of EU membership goodbye forever.

Oberon

07-15-16, 07:41 PM

The side-effects of a coup (graphic):
https://www.facebook.com/muslu.apo.5/videos/10206802027074835/

This is why, for a while now, I always hold back from wishing for armed revolution...because while Erdogan happily circles around the Med, his people become bloody messes on the ground.

Betonov

07-16-16, 03:18 AM

Then you better not talk to our current or previous ambassador there. When I asked him about Erdogan's policy of using false allegations against the military, journalist and civil society (Ergenekon), he just said that it was a small matter of Turkey cleaning house and that we should leave them alone.

When you asked him ??
How far up the chain are you ?? Directly or indirectly :hmmm:

And I'm not surprised that our diplomacy only revolves around parroting what DC and Brussels tell us :nope:
Plus, our export into Turkey is one fifth of that to Russia, we should have embargoed them instead :/\\!!

My condolances to any sane Turks remaining, you're stuck with an impotent version of Mehmed the greats brother, Mehmed the limp.

Schroeder

07-16-16, 04:11 AM

BTW the German Tagesschau reports that several thousand pro Erdogan protesters had gathered in front of Turkish diplomatic facilities in Germany during the night. It seems the a lot of Turks in Germany like how Erdogan is becoming a dictator. More power to them but please finally close the door to the EU for good as it should have been done years ago.

STEED

07-16-16, 05:08 AM

Another bloody mess.

Oberon

07-16-16, 05:25 AM

A Turkish military helicopter has landed in Greece, eight on board have requested asylum.

Skybird

07-16-16, 05:32 AM

Erdoghan rises stronger than ever before from this. The real coup is just about to be launched.

Respenus

07-16-16, 06:02 AM

When you asked him ??
How far up the chain are you ?? Directly or indirectly :hmmm:

Sorry to disappoint you, but I am completely outside the chain of command in Slovenia. I got to ask the ambassador during his visit to our faculty (while I was still a student) and mind you, the question received a mighty big stink eye from the professors present.

And I'm not surprised that our diplomacy only revolves around parroting what DC and Brussels tell us :nope:
Plus, our export into Turkey is one fifth of that to Russia, we should have embargoed them instead :/\\!!

Actually, I would not blame this on the EU or the US. The ambassador did not only reject any sort of clean-up by Erdogan, but the amount of wilful ignorance that he presented made it clear that it was either him or the Foreign Ministry that were out of their minds. Considering how our foreign policy is to kiss every and anyone's behind, I would sooner pin this whole disgrace to our government.

---

I also join the rest of you hoping that the backlash will not be too severe (who are we kidding). I have met many liberal/Kemalist Turks while studying abroad and I know they were already receiving flak in calmer times. I dare not think how many will be getting house visits in the following days and weeks, taking them our for an "interview".

Oberon

07-16-16, 07:26 AM

Dark times ahead for Turkey, but it seems that's what many Turks want, so...all we can do is leave them to it and express our sorrow for those who are going to die in the coming days.

Skybird

07-16-16, 07:47 AM

The real coup has begun. Almost three thousand judges got sacked.

I expect the cleansing of academics and intellectuals at universities will intensify (if that is even possible...). Even more journalists and media workers will need to fear for their freedom, and canalready pack their suitcases for when they will be deported into prison cells.

Reintroduction of death penalty is being considered.

Over three thousand troops got arrested as well.

Merkel'S comment illustrates support for the demoicratically elected government, means: Erdoghan. The EU and the US voiced similiar comments. NATO calls Turkey a precious ally.

6 or 8 years ago we have had a Turkish member in the forum here, who reassured us and me that the Turkish military will stand up to its duty and protect the secular order of Turkey. Back then I told him that the military alreeady had made a lethal mistake - to allow Erdoghan to bcome president, and that the military will fail with any future attempt to stop him. He was angry and nevr was seen again. Unfortunately, I was right. The AKP has systematically eroded the basis of the military both on troop level and in the officer corps. Who could expect that this could go without consequences? The military no longer is the guardioan of the Kemlaist constituion. A first blow has been delivered to officers already years ago, with hundreds ending in prison, then AKP followers were accelerated to pass through troops lower ranks and into low officer ranks, while officers with aKP background too were accelerated in their careers and rises aand replaced many Kemalist older officer who got sacked before they had reached pension age. The military now is no possible solution anymore, but part of the problem. A reliable NATO ally? Not even in your wildest dreams. Its a wolf in sheeps clothing.

Oh dear, it was to be expected, still it is frustrating when you get it all to read black on white. Erdoghan gets quoted with saying that it all is a gift of God.

And the plebs? Is celebrating in the streets.

Jimbuna

07-16-16, 09:15 AM

Dark times ahead for Turkey, but it seems that's what many Turks want, so...all we can do is leave them to it and express our sorrow for those who are going to die in the coming days.

May well be the case, I'm meeting a couple of Turkish friends tonight so it could well be interesting to learn of their views on the matter.

Oberon

07-16-16, 09:42 AM

Merkel'S comment illustrates support for the demoicratically elected government, means: Erdoghan. The EU and the US voiced similiar comments. NATO calls Turkey a precious ally.

Politics, western nations cannot condone a military coup even if it's in their best interests to do so, it's against the rules of global politics. Generally speaking they'll put out calls for calm if it looks like the coup might succeed and then back the 'democratically elected' leader if it looks like it'll fail.
If they throw their cards behind the coup and it fails then it makes things very diplomatically difficult, especially for a NATO member which points at the soft underbelly of Russia and has control over the Bosporus, not to mention has weaponised 2 million refugees which it could happily unleash on Western Europe at any point (heck, I wouldn't be surprised if a fair few of them are already planning to leg it given the instability of things in Turkey at the moment), aaaaaand Turkey has a key land border with Syria which is the current active global hotspot. As if to demonstrate this, the airfield at Incirlik from which US forces attack Daesh has had its airspace shut down, so that's going to hamper US operations against Daesh until it is reopened.

I hate Erdogan as much as the next guy, but I don't see what the EU leaders and the US could feasibly do, especially with Erdogan commanding a lot of popular support it seems, if either side tried to put sanctions on him he would just shrug it off by making life difficult for NATO forces in Turkey conducting operations against Daesh, and if any military action was taken to overthrow him it would be another Iraq. :dead:

It's in the hands of the Turks, poor sods.

mapuc

07-16-16, 12:09 PM

This coup is over

For some hours in the night between Friday and Saturday there where a little civil war in Turkey

As some here in my thread and on some friends FB-wall mentioned Lets get rid of Erdogan. I understand there are many European and Turkish people that hate that man more or less, but using the military against a democratic elected President or Prime Minister is not the solution

Democracy is the solution-Convinced the Turkish voters that Erdogan is not good for Turkey.

Markus

Oberon

07-16-16, 01:26 PM

Oberon

07-16-16, 01:33 PM

Oh, and if things weren't bizarre enough, the Turkish Secretary of Labour is blaming the US for the coup, because of course he is.

mapuc

07-16-16, 02:17 PM

Good luck with that mapuc, for many Turks he's the best thing since sliced bread, and soon he'll get rid of the democracy he used to get into power, probably through enacting a permanent state of emergency or something like that. No, he's here to stay, the only chance is that the military sees the purges coming and decides to turn against him en masse, but given the feel of the word on the street, I don't think that'll happen.
I imagine that the refugees from Syria are going to start having Turks in them now as well. Now would be a great time for anyone who likes democracy to get the hell out of dodge.

I can see why you wrote "Good luck with that mapuc" I missed to write "the Turkish people" has to Convinced the Turkish voters that Erdogan is not good for Turkey.

As someone wrote

In my lifelong military career I have never seen such a badly planned and amateurish executed coup-that makes one wonder if

They hoped other military units would join as the progress proceeded
or
the Rumour that Erdogan is behind this are not so conspiracy as one may think.

Markus

tomfon

07-16-16, 02:25 PM

This coup was so poorly organised that it almost makes no sense. One has to exercise extreme caution when planning to overthrow Erdogan, shouldn't he? I mean, the time the so called conspirators begun their attempt was around 22.15 in a Friday evening (???). Why not in the early hours of Saturday so as to achieve complete surprise and catch your 'enemies' off guard? How did they exactly plan to mobilize their troops in heavy traffic? Are we supposed to believe that not even one of the high-ranking officers arrested didn't have any second thoughts about the time? Didn't anyone of them have the obvious idea to seize control of all TV stations? And how come almost half an hour after Erdogan's speech on CNN Turk, members of AKP attacked the soldiers who were at the Ataturk airport and on that bridge that fast and that hard? These people are fanatics, they decapitated their soldiers-fellow citizens - for crying out loud!!! - they are not ordinary people protesting against the army or the coup as Erdogan says they are. How can it be? They looked (and i believe they are) more serious and determined than their fellow citizens-soldiers. They acted as a mob not as a crowd protesting in a spontaneous way. And how come we haven't heard any of the conspirators saying a single word on the TV? Finally, this story about a 75 year old mastermind, a former cleric, living thousands of kilometers away in Pennsylvania, having organised the whole thing, while trying to make him look like the Osama Bin Laden of the West who planned this attack against a democratically elected government is pathetic. Am I supposed to believe that the Americans were stupid enough to organise the whole thing leaving trails to this cleric leading back to them? Jesus...

Torplexed

07-16-16, 02:37 PM

Finally, this story about a 75 year old mastermind, a former cleric, living thousands of kilometers away in Pennsylvania, having organised the whole thing, while trying to make him look like the Osama Bin Laden of the West who planned this attack against a democratically elected government is pathetic.

The US airbase at Incirlik has had it's airspace closed, and Erdogan is now calling out Obama to arrest and turn over the cleric Fettulah Gulen. I hope this doesn't become something similar to the Ayatollah Khomeini demanding turning over the Shah of Iran.

tomfon

07-16-16, 02:48 PM

One can only speculate about what is going to follow. In my humble opinion, everything was a good show for the country's public opinion. I'm sorry to say this since many people died during that night. But it was just what Erdogan needed to show them who is running things. Among the numerous reports there was a Turk saying the very same thing.

And now the news have said that the Mayor of Ankara stated that the pilot who shot down the Russian Sukhoi is one of the conspirators... Hmmmm..... He probably has an American passport and an uncle living in Minnesota. Most likely.

mapuc

07-16-16, 02:50 PM

The US airbase at Incirlik has had it's airspace closed, and Erdogan is now calling out Obama to arrest and turn over the cleric Fettulah Gulen. I hope this doesn't become something similar to the Ayatollah Khomeini demanding turning over the Shah of Iran.

The question is

Will Obama/USA do so, for keeping the airbase at Incirlik intact and other things-

Turkey may if refusal from USA close the base for American and other allied fighter jets.

Markus

Oberon

07-16-16, 02:59 PM

The question is

Will Obama/USA do so, for keeping the airbase at Incirlik intact and other things-

Turkey may if refusal from USA close the base for American and other allied fighter jets.

Markus

There's nothing Obama can do, he doesn't have the power to just turn over Gulen and Erdogan knows that, he's a power hungry megalomanic but he's not stupid. His followers on the other hand...so it makes the US be the convienient bad guy in this situation.
Chances are that a deal will be struck to keep Incirlik open, some new missiles for the F16s or something, and things will go back to normal. I don't think Erdogan particularly wants to go alone without the US, but since the US is the big bad in the Muslim world they make an easy scapegoat.
The one I'd keep an eye on is Iran, how they react to this will be interesting.

Oberon

07-16-16, 04:21 PM

Something may be happening at Incirlik, either low flying sonic-booming aircraft or explosions are being reported across twitter, although the sources are sketchy.

Skybird

07-16-16, 04:21 PM

using the military against a democratic elected President or Prime Minister is not the solution

And is democracy the right tool to establish autocracy and tyrannical dictatorship? Think of what misery the world would have been saved form if the military would have simply killed Hitler - a democratically elected leader, btw.

Erdoghan himself once said that to him democracy is just a train you use to get from your starting point to your destination. Once you have reached your destination, you leave it and leave the train behind.

Official statistics say there are more than 3 million Turks living in Germany. It is more in reality, but okay. More than half of these still have voting rights for Turkish elections. And almost all of them went voting, and amongst the German Turks a greater share voted for Erdoghan, than of the Turkish population in Turkey. - This radicalisation means problems for us in germany, you can imagine.

And when Western politicians like Merkel say that tanks in the street to kick a democratically elected govenrment are "unacceptable", then this is the same kind of nonsense that the West talked when the Egypt military kicked out the democratically elected MB. And in the end, for Merkel and others it is about this: if they do accept coups against failing governments in other states, they in principle have no defence anymore against the people violently rising or the military staging a coup against their own government, too - because our governments' policies are as much failures, as Erdoghans are. Our leaders betray us and lead us into darkness as well. They should have all reason to fear us, the people. But thanks to the life-long indoctrination that "violence is never an option", they must not fear us. Birds of same feather flock together. Mind you, in Brussel there are politicians at work who want to put criticising the EU in a way not authorized by the EU, under penalty. Opposing the EU's self-perception should become a criminal offence. Opposition becomes criminalised that way. But the same people criticise Erdoghan, Hirsi, or autocratic leaders in Eastern european states...? LOL

No, I do not rule out violence always, and under all circumstances. If I would, I would be dead since many years already, gotten killed on two, maybe three incidents. I defend Hirsi's coup in Egypt, and I have no illusion about the level of corruption and cleptocracy his camp is abusing the state for. Erdoghan, democratically elected or not, is as cleptocratic, and his wife is said to be as bad, if not worse.

Violence can be justified, and is a tool like others. Its just that it should not be used easily, and carelessly. And it is like with owning a weapon: its better to be able to project and direct violence against others, but not needing to do so, than needing to do so but finding oneself too unable and too impotent to do so. Better have a weapon and not needing to use it, than to need one but finding you have none. Weakness is no virtue. It just is weakness. It is strength that can be a power for good, it is never weakness. And it is strength that opens chances and generates opportuntiies and increases the degrees of freedom in your decision-making. If you are weak, you reduce these degrees of freedom. Saying you mean it well but being impotent to do something, means nothing. Save your breath.

Maybe the rebels "meant it well". Maybe they saw it as their duty to try to remove Erdoghan from power, like the many who tried to assassinate Hitler. Maybe they knew they would fail, but thought it nevertheless is a demand of soldier's honor to try it anyway. Maybe they were just naive and underestimated the amount of support Erdoghan has. If the latter, they were naive idiots then.

Personally I still think it is more than just conspiracy theory that Erdoghan has created the opportunity for this coup- to smack it down and create himself a card blanche for the aftermath. The blakclists came out too fast, preparations mjust have been done before. At least he was hoping for and waiting for such an opportunity. He called the coup a gift of God, that tells something.

Turkey is no longer a trustworthy ally, and is no friend. Its an enemy in our middle. And it will give us big troubles that sooner or later we can no longer contain. I'm preaching this since over ten years, and since then there has not been a single year that has not proven me right: things became worse and worse and worse. And like with any pressure cooker, it just is a question of time until it explodes into our faces. Hopes for the better, and meaning it well, will not make a smallest difference.

Oberon

07-16-16, 04:31 PM

Think of what misery the world would have been saved form if the military would have simply killed Hitler - a democratically elected leader.

Depends on who replaced him and when it happened, the world might well have been worse off if someone more competant had replaced Hitler. :dead:

Skybird

07-16-16, 04:39 PM

German Tornados are at Incirlik, plus 240 Bundeswehr personnel. :-?

A German presence that Erdoghan banned German members of parliament from visiting, in retaliation for Germany calling the Armenia genocide a genocide.

I would have given command to the commander there that he should let the Tornados equip with LR tanks and let them scramble to RTB in Germany, not to come back, no matter what the Turkisdh controllers say, and then stage a big diplomatic crisis over the German hostages that Erdoghan sure as hell would have taken without calling it like that. Sooner or later they would have gotten free and left Turkey. The German contribution is an alibi anyway, since the Tornado'S intel and recce data takes far too long for processing as if they would be of any decisive value for running combat operations, they are not well imntegrated into the data exchange network of allied forces fighting the IS. Its the German way to claim "we are with you", without risking anything and not needing to get our hands dirty.

Actionism and symbolism. Not worth one penny.

Oberon

07-16-16, 04:48 PM

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CnhGQ8KWgAAlHPT.jpg

http://i2.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/000/773/128/2dd.jpg

Diopos

07-17-16, 12:27 AM

@ Skybird and other posters

At the moment, in Turkey, it sounds like democracy is all about the right to choose the coup you want to support ...

:hmmm:

.

Reece

07-17-16, 01:24 AM

That's one way of looking at it!!:yep:

em2nought

07-17-16, 02:09 AM

Trial run is out of the way for the fake coup that Barry will stage if it looks like the Donald is gonna win. :D Would really help to explain things. :hmmm:

weston14h

07-17-16, 03:37 AM

Thankfully the British weren't directly involved, I'm getting sick of seeing dead children in the streets.

Onkel Neal

07-17-16, 04:17 AM

What I find sadly ironic is that a "democratically elected" dictator appealed to the people to stand up for him and they responded with support.:nope:

Schroeder

07-17-16, 04:24 AM

What I find sadly ironic is that a "democratically elected" dictator appealed to the people to stand up for him and they responded with support.:nope:
Hey, we've done the same....in the 1930 - 40ies....see how much good that did us.:yeah:

:/\\!!
Well, it's obvious that they want to be sheep under a dictator who does the thinking for them so let them have him. If they want to throw away their freedom let them. They are adults and they have chosen. It's not our business to protect them from themselves especially since they don't want to be protected and enjoy being run by a dictator.

Onkel Neal

07-17-16, 04:33 AM

True, but to be fair, that was nearly 100 years ago, and the German people have been a model of reason since.

The people of today have only to look back at what happens to countries who allow a small party of radicals to take away their rights. There's no excuse for this. And it always ends the same, whether it's Hitler, the Bolsheviks, Putin, any one leader or party. When people give away their political power they can no longer control their destiny.

Skybird

07-17-16, 04:53 AM

True, but to be fair, that was nearly 100 years ago, and the German people have been a model of reason since.
:88) Eh...what...?

Just because they do not swing clubs at other countries anymore, they already are "reasonable"?

No, they aren't, trust me. I need to bear them every day. Illusions grow high into the sky over here.

Oberon

07-17-16, 04:58 AM

Sounds like its Armenia's turn today....:doh:

EDIT: Turns out it's just a politically motivated hostage situation rather than a full scale coup.

Betonov

07-17-16, 06:22 AM

Let's face it, democracy is dead in Turkey :nope:

Even if the coup succeded and the Army held up the deal Ataturk gave them, the AKP would be voted back in and another round of theocratisation would start :/\\!!

And the Bosnians on FB are celebrating it like the world was saved.
Don't those mountain dwelling muslim morons understand that if Bosnia goes the way of Turkey another mess wil start in the Balkans becasue you don't turn full islamic with Croatia AND Serbia surround you and those people kiss a cross before the go to the toillet.

Sung

07-17-16, 06:38 AM

In einigen Jahren wird man von den Helden vom 15.Juli sprechen. Der letzte Versuch unblutig eine islamische Diktatur in der Türkei zu verhindern. Alle sind wie besoffen von ihrem Demokratischen Sieg. Erdogan wird nie mehr demokratisch das Feld räumen. Im Gegenteil jetzt geht es erst richtig los mit der Gewaltherrschaft. Die Welt ist ein Ort von Idioten...

Maybe someone can translate it to english. True words!

Schroeder

07-17-16, 06:52 AM

Something like this:
"Maybe in a few years from now we will talk about the heroes of July 15th. The last attempt to stop an Islamic dictatorship in Turkey without bloodshed. All are like drunk from their democratic victory. Erdogan now will never go away in a democratic manner. Just the opposite. Now the reign of violence will really take off. The world is a place full of idiots."

Oberon

07-17-16, 07:07 AM

Seems about right, RIP Turkey. :dead:

Torplexed

07-17-16, 07:52 AM

Former General Wesley Clark said the coup failed because these rebels missed the most basic mechanic of a successful coup. Which is grab or isolate the man in charge. Now, all the coup plotters have done is give Erdogan an excuse to squash opposition and completely consolidate power.

Erodgan looks like another sterling example of how, even in a country with a democratic tradition electing a strongman leader can undo a democracy. Those voting in the fall take note. :nope:

Jimbuna

07-17-16, 07:58 AM

May well be the case, I'm meeting a couple of Turkish friends tonight so it could well be interesting to learn of their views on the matter.

I now feel a little better informed but readily admit what I have learned may well have a good dose of bias in it.

One story told me....

Young conscripts (late teens-early twenties) are given orders shortly after midnight at their barracks via senior level of command to drive their vehicles (tanks included) to various locations and await orders.

One of said tanks is positioned on a certain bridge as crowds gather and eventually climb onto the turret.

The 20 year-old conscript (possibly tank commander) is pushed and jostled whilst sitting atop of the turret and asked what he is doing there. He responds saying he has no idea, is simply following orders and awaiting further instructions.

The crowd become increasingly hostile and a cameraman appears and starts recording, at which point the young conscript is dragged from the turret and decapitated.

Torplexed

07-17-16, 08:03 AM

The 20 year-old conscript (possibly tank commander) is pushed and jostled whilst sitting atop of the turret and asked what he is doing there. He responds saying he has no idea, is simply following orders and awaiting further instructions.

Man, I hope he wasn't the victim of a frame-up job, but it sure sounds like it. :-?

Jimbuna

07-17-16, 08:28 AM

Man, I hope he wasn't the victim of a frame-up job, but it sure sounds like it. :-?

Apparently the young guys mother saw it as it was streamed live on local tv :nope:

Betonov

07-17-16, 08:45 AM

Young conscripts (late teens-early twenties) are given orders shortly after midnight at their barracks via senior level of command to drive their vehicles (tanks included) to various locations and await orders.

One of said tanks is positioned on a certain bridge as crowds gather and eventually climb onto the turret.

The 20 year-old conscript (possibly tank commander) is pushed and jostled whilst sitting atop of the turret and asked what he is doing there. He responds saying he has no idea, is simply following orders and awaiting further instructions.

Reminds me of the conscripts of the JNA in 1991, when some had no idea what's going on. Some had no idea, others were told anything from exercise maneouvers to an Italian invasion.

A lot of POW were simply captured when a TO unit aproached a JNA unit and disarmed them because the JNA though that the TO's were comming to reinforce them, not fight them.

Of course, the TO's took extremly good care of the POWs to the point that the conscripts surrendered just because they heard how well they would be treated. We arent sickos like Erdognojs people :nope:

JNA means Jugoslav national army and TO were the police and troops of the Teritorial defence who fought on Slovenes side.

Skybird

07-17-16, 09:02 AM

Once again the West shows how to tolerate itself to death. All this mumbojumbo about how precious democratic elections are even if they are abused to make evil unavailable for criticism and brandkmarking - in Egypt it almost led to disaster until some more sane people took command, and it certainly has done that now in Turkey. But the West has its precious democratic proceedings being followed. Hooray.

We have helped to bring a monster in place. And it now starts to eat both bodies, and freedom, and radically deletes Turkish history and progress of the past 100 years. We can be proud of our idealistic disconnection from unwanted realities. It works for terrible results, but at least we meant it well, at least we were idealistic. Isn't that worth something, too...?

Before the end of this decade already we will bitterly wish for the coup having been successful and the military ruling Turkey.

I always thought it is a big mistake to reduce "democracy" only to majority votings as a leading principle. Not to mention - once again - that originally democracy meant something totally different anyway.

We cannot prevent the inner-political chnage in Turkey. But then it would be in our interest that we weaken Turkey as much as possible. We should start to deliver modern weaponry to the Kurds in Turkey to destabilise the regime, and to the Kurds outside Turkey to give them the teeth the need to bite back against Turkish air strikes and artillery.

Turkey is no friend anymore, nor an ally, but a poisonous blade sticking deep in Europe's sore, open flank. It is insane to act as if it still is in defence of NATO, or Europe. It'S no chance, but a major risk. Preaching this since many years.

With friends like this you really do not need declared enemies anymore. Such friends are much more dangerous.

It gets commented that Turkey is important for NATO since it fields the second largest army of all NATO members, after the US. But who said that in case of real troubles it really would use this army on behalf of NATO/European/American interests...??? The events of past years should teach us another truth. We cannot trust Turkey anymore, and that is the only fact that we must know.

Diopos

07-17-16, 09:55 AM

...
and those people kiss a cross before the go to the toillet.

Well, that's more due to the condition of the toillet ...

:)

.

Skybird

07-17-16, 10:29 AM

Well, that's more due to the condition of the toillet ...

:)

.
Could be worse: when the German unit with Patriot systems was sent to Turkey some years ago to defend helpless Turkey against he ongoing aggression from terribly dangerous Syria that Turkey constantly provoked back then, the Turks sent the Germans to an empty Turkish garrison where the Germans were greeted with fresh feces covering the ground several centimeters high in all buildings. The Germans had to clean the mess. I know from one BW insider that the actual situation was even worse than what was reported in the media back then. Later there were several incidents when Turkish military tried to bully German personnel.

The German government just stayed bent over and took the spanking with closed lips. Never no complaint, but much of apüpeasing and sweet-talking.

Nice move.

Until today I have no clue why the German Patriot missiles and the German recce Tornados are in Turkey. They are not needed, and never were seriously expected to be needed. And I wonder whether the Patriots will ever be pulled back to Germany, or whether the equipment simply will be left there for the Turks (who use older Patriots and are eager to get their hands on the more modern versions the Germans use).

Oberon

07-17-16, 11:38 AM

I now feel a little better informed but readily admit what I have learned may well have a good dose of bias in it.

One story told me....

Young conscripts (late teens-early twenties) are given orders shortly after midnight at their barracks via senior level of command to drive their vehicles (tanks included) to various locations and await orders.

One of said tanks is positioned on a certain bridge as crowds gather and eventually climb onto the turret.

The 20 year-old conscript (possibly tank commander) is pushed and jostled whilst sitting atop of the turret and asked what he is doing there. He responds saying he has no idea, is simply following orders and awaiting further instructions.

The crowd become increasingly hostile and a cameraman appears and starts recording, at which point the young conscript is dragged from the turret and decapitated.

I've heard similar things, with poor conscripts being beheaded, lynched and thrown off the Bosporus bridge. Most of them had no idea what was going on, in fact I'd wager that the only ones who did were the air units, the ones who did the strafing and bombing.

Onkel Neal

07-17-16, 04:13 PM

Could be worse: when the German unit with Patriot systems was sent to Turkey some years ago to defend helpless Turkey against he ongoing aggression from terribly dangerous Syria that Turkey constantly provoked back then, the Turks sent the Germans to an empty Turkish garrison where the Germans were greeted with fresh feces covering the ground several centimeters high in all buildings. The Germans had to clean the mess. I know from one BW insider that the actual situation was even worse than what was reported in the media back then. Later there were several incidents when Turkish military tried to bully German personnel.

The German government just stayed bent over and took the spanking with closed lips. Never no complaint, but much of apüpeasing and sweet-talking.

Nice move.

Until today I have no clue why the German Patriot missiles and the German recce Tornados are in Turkey. They are not needed, and never were seriously expected to be needed. And I wonder whether the Patriots will ever be pulled back to Germany, or whether the equipment simply will be left there for the Turks (who use older Patriots and are eager to get their hands on the more modern versions the Germans use).

Think about the the 50 B-61 hydrogen bombs in storage at Incirlik. That needs to end now.

Skybird

07-17-16, 04:22 PM

Everybody should have understood by now that the plans for the great cleaning operation already were finished and just waited in a drawer to be pulled out. The witch-hunt for critics of Erdoghan, amongst university academics, teachers, doctors, writers, media workers, but also in police and justice apparatus and in the military, already had been opened long time before.

While many say that Erdoghan possibly - likely - has triggered the coup to gain card blanche for himself in return, another possible scenario is being considered now in debates, and it makes a lot of sense. That scenario says that Erdioghan was about to pull oput these cleaning operation blueprints anyway and at any moment - and that a desperate part of the military hastily triggered the coup in an last act of self-defence to forestall that cleaning operation in last minute. It also would just be the next logical step of escalation in Erdoghan's strategy to continouslsy increase the witch-hunt for his potential critics and oppositiuon.

This makes sense in that it perfectly explains why the coup seems to have been launched so hastily and seems to have been so incompletely planned.

However, the theory that Erdoghan triggerd it, explains that also, for Erdoghan certainly would not have wanted a coup so strong that it had the potential to overthrow him for real. However, rumours said today the Turkish air force has hunted Erdoghan's jet and tried to shoot it down. If that was no staged event as well, it speaks for that new theory popping up today that the military revolted in a desperate last-second attempt of self-defence to forestall Erdighan's strike.

Oberon

07-17-16, 04:22 PM

Think about the the 50 B-61 hydrogen bombs in storage at Incirlik. That needs to end now.

I believe it has. The Turkish commander in charge of the base has been arrested, since apparently aircraft flew from the base during the coup, and flights are now resuming as normal.

Oberon

07-17-16, 04:23 PM

http://i.imgur.com/yb9jojF.jpg

Skybird

07-17-16, 04:29 PM

Think about the the 50 B-61 hydrogen bombs in storage at Incirlik. That needs to end now.
Not sure I understand you correctly. You mean I should stop complaining because the German mini-presence helps to secure these...? Or do you think the storage of those A-bombs there should end? I think we can wait long for that to happen. Diplomatic symbolism, and all that precious sensible stuff.

Nippelspanner

07-18-16, 02:05 AM

Onkel Neal

07-18-16, 02:16 AM

Not sure I understand you correctly. You mean I should stop complaining because the German mini-presence helps to secure these...? Or do you think the storage of those A-bombs there should end? I think we can wait long for that to happen. Diplomatic symbolism, and all that precious sensible stuff.

Storage of those A-bombs there should end. There was an episode in 2010 where some peace nutjobs broke into the facility and took Youtube videos, 30 minutes without being caught by a Belgian guard with an unloaded rifle. All US nukes need to be moved out of unstable countries like Turkey.

Moonlight

07-18-16, 09:24 AM

Oberon

07-18-16, 10:39 AM

You'd better get any nukes of yours out of the UK as well then, :stare: we've got the most unstable politicians in the world around these parts and those buffoons in Westminster are mad enough to use them. :yep:

I thought they already had taken them out? Unless there's still some at Lakenheath. :hmmm:

Betonov

07-18-16, 10:46 AM

I thought they already had taken them out? Unless there's still some at Lakenheath. :hmmm:

What do you mean UK doens't have nukes :o

[looks at kukri]

:hmmm:

Oberon

07-18-16, 01:07 PM

What do you mean UK doens't have nukes :o

[looks at kukri]

:hmmm:

Well...that's being debated in Parliament today. :haha:

Von Due

07-18-16, 01:17 PM

Well...that's being debated in Parliament today. :haha:

They may not have nuclear missiles but they might very well have ballistically (or aerially) delivered nuclear splitting devices which would be something else entirely.

Jimbuna

07-18-16, 02:20 PM

I thought they already had taken them out? Unless there's still some at Lakenheath. :hmmm:

The US continued to store nuclear weapons in the UK until about 2006 , when approximately 110 tactical B61 nuclear bombs stored at RAF Lakenheath for deployment by USAF F-15E Strike Eagle aircraft were removed.

Oberon

07-18-16, 03:04 PM

Yeah, I thought they'd shifted them out by now, just Belgium, Holland, Germany and Turkey apparently.

Bit of info that's just come through, apparently one of the coupists who was flying an F-16 during the coup attempt was the same pilot who shot down the Russian Su-24 in November last year. :doh:

EDIT: More info about the aerial side of things of the other night:
https://theaviationist.com/?p=39274?p=39274

mapuc

07-18-16, 06:57 PM

Yesterday I read following in the headlines on the online news paper aftonbladet.se

F-16 that was one the coup makers side had its targeting radar locked on Erdogans plane for several minutes without firing-Many are speculating to why the pilot didn't fire.

Markus

Skybird

07-19-16, 04:38 AM

How much one would wish he had fired.

:dead:

Might have caused some unrest at first, but in the long run would have been better than what there is now.

Skybird

07-19-16, 09:50 AM

Mr Quatro

07-19-16, 10:25 AM

Betonov

07-19-16, 10:27 AM

What's next? Public hangings :o

I am pretty sure that will be the case :nope:

Oberon

07-19-16, 10:38 AM

15 thousand education staff and teachers fired. Many must fear criminal persecution.

The opposition in parliament has signalled they will support a return of death penalty.

The Fourth Reich has come - and I will not take this statement back. Things maybe will get even worse than even me has forseen years ago. Next the hammer will fall down heavy on the intellectuals and academics in general, though they already get plenty of beating - it will become much worse.

You and I have disagreed on many many things, but I'm not going to disagree with you on this. The hope I still cling to, but I know that it won't happen, is that what's left of the army will push back against these purges and overthrow Erdogan...but deep down I know that he's cut enough of the Kemalists from the armed forces to make sure that this doesn't happen.

Still...perhaps this will help wake some nations up to Turkey, and get rid of any chance of it joining the EU, especially if it reintroduces the death penalty, I doubt that it'll get kicked out of NATO but one can hope. Of course, that means that we're going to have to prepare for the next refugee crisis when the floodgates open, and if any of the nations in the EU had some sense they'd be doing that now in preparation, but we all know that no nation prepares for anything any more. :dead:

In short, 2016 can go duck itself.

Von Due

07-19-16, 10:57 AM

Turkey out of NATO for re-introducing the death penalty is going to happen the day the largest member of NATO abandons all practice of the death penalty. It's just not going to be a topic at HQ. What I have gathered so far is Mr Eternal President, Emperor and Ataturk's messenger on Earth is moving rapidly into Stalin's territory. With enough support there are not many off-limits left unexplored for buddying Sun Kings and support he has. You could perhaps say I'm not an unrestrained optimist over what Turkey has laying ahead.

Nippelspanner

07-19-16, 11:04 AM

I am pretty sure that will be the case :nope:
I just can't imagine this... or don't want to.

Penguin

07-19-16, 11:09 AM

The hope I still cling to, but I know that it won't happen, is that what's left of the army will push back against these purges and overthrow Erdogan...but deep down I know that he's cut enough of the Kemalists from the armed forces to make sure that this doesn't happen.

The problem is: what happens if there's no support among the people? The left-wing still knows about the bitter lessons learned after 1980 that while secularism is a pillar of democracy, secularism alone is not sufficient. The Kurds have their very own negative experiences with the army, and ordinary folks just are just less willing to give their life than religious fanatics do for their cause as we saw when the mosques rallied their supporters on Friday.

Oberon

07-19-16, 11:22 AM

The problem is: what happens if there's no support among the people? The left-wing still knows about the bitter lessons learned after 1980 that while secularism is a pillar of democracy, secularism alone is not sufficient. The Kurds have their very own negative experiences with the army, and ordinary folks just are just less willing to give their life than religious fanatics do for their cause as we saw when the mosques rallied their supporters on Friday.

Sadly that is a very valid point, it is true that if Erdogan was toppled then Turkey would face months, maybe years of civil unrest, mass arrests and disappearances and martial law. Perhaps even a risk of civil war.
The question is whether it would be better for the country in the long term, than to leave Erdogan in charge and let Turkey slide into a Islamic theocratic dictatorship. :hmmm:

Schroeder

07-19-16, 12:36 PM

The question is whether it would be better for the country in the long term, than to leave Erdogan in charge and let Turkey slide into a Islamic theocratic dictatorship. :hmmm:
The question is wouldn't Turkey go that way regardless of whether Erdogan is in charge or not? The people have voted for him, they now cheer that the coup has failed so they are with his visions. If Erdogan disappeared overnight they would just vote in the next conservative Islamic nutjob who wants to become Muhammad II. Remember, it's not happening against the will of the people. The majority of Turks want it.

Betonov

07-19-16, 01:10 PM

The question is wouldn't Turkey go that way regardless of whether Erdogan is in charge or not? The people have voted for him, they now cheer that the coup has failed so they are with his visions. If Erdogan disappeared overnight they would just vote in the next conservative Islamic nutjob who wants to become Muhammad II. Remember, it's not happening against the will of the people. The majority of Turks want it.

He's right Jammie :nope:

Slowly isolate Turkey, slowly I say so us smaller nations can adapt economic wise and brake any and all negotioations and treaties until they get their house in order and back up to Ataturks standards.

Oberon

07-19-16, 01:14 PM

He's right Jammie :nope:

Slowly isolate Turkey, slowly I say so us smaller nations can adapt economic wise and brake any and all negotioations and treaties until they get their house in order and back up to Ataturks standards.

That's why they had to run the last presidential elections twice, because it was so unanimously in favour of Erdogan. :yep:

Skybird

07-19-16, 02:36 PM

Turkey will never be member of the EU, never, at least regarding this question I rest assured now. It will not happen, not now, not tomorrow, not in the future.

NATO and the EU will need to learn to not wanting to depend on Turkey any longer, both will need to adapt. We must learn not wanting to depend on Turkey. If we still would want something different, we would be stupids. NATO's strategic stance needs to be adapted and changed.

And Western troops in Turkeys should be withdrawn. All of them. Now.

I will not make myself many new friends: but we also need a technology embargo and a nuclear surveillance program. Turkey shall not be allowed to gain nuclear weapons. A nuclear cold war between Turkey, Iran, Egypt, Saudi Arabia is a scenario so dramatic that I think this time the world would not get away with it.

Skybird

07-19-16, 02:40 PM

That's why they had to run the last presidential elections twice, because it was so unanimously in favour of Erdogan. :yep:
That was because of the Kurds. Substract their vote (since Erdoghan is taking them out of the equation), and you have a clear majority for Erdoghan.

The AKP was extremely popular in the rural places of the county already in the mid-90s. And that is where over 80% of the population still lives. The pressure form the outside will rally even more Turks behind the AKP, and help nationalism to blossom.

That does not mean the pressure should be lifted. But it must be accompanied by uncompromised containment.

Jimbuna

07-19-16, 03:34 PM

Simply wondering if the risks Turkey are now posing are outweighed by their NATO membership :hmm2:

August

07-19-16, 06:55 PM

I wonder how this fits into Putins plans to control the Bosporus?

em2nought

07-20-16, 01:46 AM

Storage of those A-bombs there should end. There was an episode in 2010 where some peace nutjobs broke into the facility and took Youtube videos, 30 minutes without being caught by a Belgian guard with an unloaded rifle. All US nukes need to be moved out of unstable countries like Turkey.

What bright boy wonder came up with the fabulous idea to store those in Turkey in the first place? :har:

Skybird

07-20-16, 04:52 AM

Simply wondering if the risks Turkey are now posing are outweighed by their NATO membership :hmm2:
What is there left to wonder about? Erdoghan dealt with the enemy NAOT currently is fighting war against. There was financial supply, probably intel supply to use it against the Kurds, probably weapon supply, IS fighters were allowed to cross the border into Turkey freely, got treatment and retreat in Turkish hospitals near the border. He provoked military incidents with Syria and tried to bring NATO into it. He is a radical religious, he dreams of Osman Empire 2.0, and he is a person with a serious personality derangement. He tried repeatedly to release legislation that would de facto delete any Kurdish group identity and end Kurdish culture in Turkey, which is the definition of genocide.

Regarding the Bosporus we maybe should shift focus on reliable methods to mine it, in case of a war, from a distance, and reliably - and repeatedly. Something like artillery delivered mines. I know its bigger things we talk of in case of naval mines - but the Bosporus should not be an argument anymore to let Turkey stay in NATO. We must learn not to want accepting that as a fact.

---

Erdoghan has banned all academics from travelling and leaving the country. Like in the GDR. All Turkish academics who currently are outside Turkey, have also been called back. If I were them and love my freedom, I would stay were I am and ask for asylum. What comes next? A death strip at the borders?

14 Turkish warships have gone amiss. It is expected their crews ask for asylum in Greece or elsewhere.

tomfon

07-20-16, 05:49 AM

I wonder if the US are still willing to proceed with the delivery of the F-35s to Turkey. If I am not mistaken in Turkey they're still trying to find those 42 helicopters that went missing...

Jimbuna

07-20-16, 08:55 AM

I'll be talking to a Turkish friend tonight, I'll try and get further insight into what's happening over there.

Skybird

07-20-16, 11:04 AM

The Turkish army seems to have lost its professionalism. In recent days, a third of thei general corps and highe rofficer corps has been sacked. Add to this the hundreds of high ranking officers that got sacked 2008 and 2009 over constructed charges. While later many of them were relieved by courts - one of the reaosns why Eedoidghan is cleanign the courts sinc eyears, too - none of them returned into his former military career and position.

So what yiou ahve is an army that has lost more than the half of its leading officers and generals withion just 8 years - and all these have been replaced with AKP loyalists who were sprinting through the ranks of their career becasue Erdoighan protected them and wnated them to take over the generla corps.

In recent combat with the Kurds, international observers claim the Turks are acting with less punishing effectiveness and more mere brutality, wiping out whole villages and cities to a degree that is unprecedented in the Kurdish conflict of the imminent decades before. Genocide and war crimes are often described now, committed by Turkish troops that are badly commanded and are sent to go on rampage.

The Turkish forces once were known to be led with a hard hand, but more or less competently, and with am ölot of discipline. All this is disappearing.

Not even to mention that the guardian of the constitution is dead. As I said earlier in the thread: the military's attempted coup came many years too late. Heck, I already said that ten years ago.

Schroeder

07-20-16, 12:29 PM

^Stalin anyone...oh and why does the whole coup remind me so much of the of the Reichstag fire (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reichstag_fire) in 1933....:dead:

Skybird

07-20-16, 03:44 PM

So now comes the "Ausnahmezustand" - is that 'martial law' or 'state of emergency' in English? Or is it both?

Over 600 schools have been shut down, the lion'S share, over 530, were private schools where the AKP had not as much a say as it wanted. After many thousands of educaiton staff and highschool teacher already had been kicked, now over 1200 additonal university deans have be told to "voluntarily resign".

Reece

07-20-16, 07:55 PM

and they have a stock pile of US nukes!! What stops them from taking and possibly using them if they wanted? What if ISIS got them, what a horrid thought!!:dead:

mapuc

07-20-16, 07:59 PM

and they have a stock pile of US nukes!! What stops them from taking and possibly using them if they wanted? What if ISIS got them, what a horrid thought!!:dead:

I think they a locked in many ways-Locked in a store, locked in itself.

Meaning the person or persons who want the hands on those have to opened several keys to access them

Markus

Skybird

07-20-16, 08:34 PM

Not even my appartment door is unbreakable - and that is an 8 cm thick resistance class 4-door with three layers of hardened steel, 33 anchor points and magnetic locks that cannot be picked. ;)

em2nought

07-20-16, 09:11 PM

Not even my appartment door is unbreakable - and that is an 8 cm thick resistance class 4-door with three layers of hardened steel, 33 anchor points and magnetic locks that cannot be picked. ;)

I've got door envy. :D

Aktungbby

07-20-16, 09:41 PM

and they have a stock pile of US nukes!! What stops them from taking and possibly using them if they wanted? What if ISIS got them, what a horrid thought!!:dead:

Not even my appartment door is unbreakable - and that is an 8 cm thick resistance class 4-door with three layers of hardened steel, 33 anchor points and magnetic locks that cannot be picked. ;)

I've got door envy. :DFrom which we get the expression; "Katie! bar the door!" :O: http://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showthread.php?p=2419375#post2419375 (http://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showthread.php?p=2419375#post2419375) http://www.kbismarck.org/photos/mk23.jpg
:D http://www.phrases.org.uk/meanings/213750.html (http://www.phrases.org.uk/meanings/213750.html)

Betonov

07-21-16, 01:22 AM

and they have a stock pile of US nukes!! What stops them from taking and possibly using them if they wanted? What if ISIS got them, what a horrid thought!!:dead:

More likely that Daesh will somehow manage to reach the base unhindered, somehow know NATO protocols, guard strenght and weak spots and when the attack will begin the Turk army will be occupied with a large Kurd attack about 2000km from where the nearest Kurd resides and won't be able to intervene until the nukes would be plundered. And I believe there might be an air control technical problem to delay any rapid response frm NATO to get there in time.

Catfish

07-21-16, 01:49 AM

If what Erdoghan did up to now was "normal", i wonder what the "Ausnahmezustand" or "state of emergency" will look like.. :shifty:

How many Kurds does he have to kill for a genocide rating?

Betonov

07-21-16, 02:45 AM

Catfish

07-21-16, 02:48 AM

I guess going through the wall will be much easier.

But why is Skybird in a maximum security prison? :hmmm: :O:

Betonov

07-21-16, 03:05 AM

I guess going through the wall will be much easier.

That's obvious, if I want to sell the door later I need them undamaged, ergo destroy the wall around it.

Reece

07-21-16, 03:18 AM

But why is Skybird in a maximum security prison? :hmmm:
You're right, I never thought about that, maybe he has access to the prison library computer. :o Wonder why he's there, can't be just for trolling!!:hmmm:

Skybird

07-21-16, 05:32 AM

:D Its just that behind the door is my refugium, my private life, my home and my castle, my possessions and belongings, and my beloved Gemütlichkeit. And I defend that, ohne Wenn und Aber. I would even shoot to kill to defend my home, I am a grumpy old badger when it is about my cave, and I am very choosey whom I let in, and whom not. Crime rates are skyrocketing in Germany, the police more or less frankly admits they cannot do anything about it, and domestic burglary is in a very steep climb. And the overwhelming majority of burglars that they get (in my place of the country less than 5% or burglary cases get solved), end up on free foot again. Do not count on police protection over here - you'd be lost. The decisions of courts and judges most often overstep the line to treason of the people.

Intermezzo:
If you ever plan to replace your own door to your flat or appartment (chose a good one and it is much more safe than just adding locks and bars), do so with a door from Austria. After the war, German big cities were flattened, the places got rebuild and they used all that DIN-standardized kits and pieces that became a fashion after WWII. But the Austrian big cities escaped that fate in a much better state, leaving more old houses unharmed or only slightly damaged, and so more old, individually crafted doors remained that needed individual solutions that are made to measure if they are to be repaired, replaced, or reinforced. Thats the reason why you find more experience in this regard amongst Austrian carpenters, and so more companies producing such doors formed up in Austria. I struggled to find what I wanted in Germany. In Austria, I saw according offers and producers stepping each other on the feet. The most advanced Austrian offers I found no match for in Germany. RIHA or ADLO, both Austrians, are market leaders in Europe. I imported fromAustria and the craftsman putting it in was from 200km away, which is a lot by German standards. In my< place and surropundign area, I did not find what I wanted. In Austria it is common.

And yes, I like my door very much.:D We got close friends from day one on.

Skybird

07-21-16, 09:45 AM

And there goes the European Convention of Human Rights down the drain - Turkey has suspended it.

Which is only consequent, since I argue since over ten years now that Turkey is not part of Europe. The culture is Middle Eastern, the ethnic group of Turk-men comes from Northern Iran and Afghanistan, the language has nothing in common with traditional European languages, and the value system of Islam (which inevitably and unavoidably can only mean Sharia) is incompatible with that of Western humanism, civil rights, and understanding of liberty and individuality, not to mention that the political-communal and the religous realm do not get separated at all, and rule over the individual (which is totalitarianism, Muhammad always was about uniformity). Just around 5% of the Turkish territory lies north of the Bosporus.

This is not Europe. Even Constantinople, even before Islam conquered the land of today'S Turkey, it was a sphere of transition, where Europe faded out, and the Orient faded in. Cultural spohere are not strictly separated by a border just 300m thick, they fade in and fade out in their outer periphery over sometimes dozens, sometimes hundreds of kilometers.

Diopos

07-21-16, 11:00 AM

...
This is not Europe. Even Constantinople, even before Islam conquered the land of today'S Turkey, it was a sphere of transition, where Europe faded out, and the Orient faded in. Cultural spohere are not strictly separated by a border just 300m thick, they fade in and fade out in their outer periphery over sometimes dozens, sometimes hundreds of kilometers.

Constantinople and the eastern roman empire (called "Byzantium" by western scolars centuries later) was actually brought to its knees around 1200 during the 4th Crusade (recaptured by the "Byzantines" about 50 years later). Capitulation to the Turks at 1453 was just the end game. When (and where) do you exactly set the begining of Europe? I am really not at all sure that the Catholics were more "Europeans" than the Orthodox back in 1200, for example. :hmmm:

Uhmmm, did I just hijack the thread?

.

Skybird

07-21-16, 12:09 PM

Its not that linear. Like there is not a simple line on a map that marks where Europe ends and the Middle East or the Russian sphere begin (to separate that from the Russian state, since the Russian sphere in a way can be seen as truly Multicultural due to its immense size), but I see that line more as a zone ov varying width where Europe fades out and the neighbouring "empire" fades in, a zone of cultural transation.

One could argue that "bureaucratically" Constantinople was European, but there were also signficant and growing differences to west-Rome, and similiarities with former Roman provinces that today without doubt would be rated as "Middle East". The Islamic conquest and the ongoing attacks along the African coast as well as to the Noth, Northeas and Northwest, towards Iran and India as well as towards the heart of Europe, of course shook and rattled things up.

I tried to "mark" the sphere of transiton between the major cultural sphere there are in this map snippet below, by lighting it up. You may get the general idea, with some good will. Note the enclave of Georgia between Russia and the Middle East (Iran) that not just sees a shift from "Oriental" to "Russian, but that I also link a bit to Europe, though I would not see it as predominantly European, the Christian faith is the dominant religion, but it is the Orthodox (="Russian") branch. Note also my considering of the Agean area and Greece being part of this zone of transition, too. In the Aegean area and the islands, all three cultural spheres - Europe, Russia, Middle East, mix and melt, and Greece traditionally is orthodox Christian and quite left-leaning, which makes it sharing many similiarities with Russia as well.

Finally, you see that I see the Ukraine as an entity of three zones, a European one in the West, a Russian one in the East, and a transition zone in the middle. The Balkan area I also see to be transition zones, for the most, especially because of the religious clashes there between Muslim and Christian factions, both present and past, and the role the Turks/Osmans once played there as well.

Russia I see as a sphere in itself, it is neither European, nor Middle East, nor Asia. Russia to me always was "Russia". And if there is a land on Earth that is truly multicultural, than it is Russia - it begins at the Baltic (Europe), stretches in the south across all the Middle Eastern area, and ends at the Pacific, which is Asia. It makes no sense to say it is Asia, or it is Europe, or it is Middle East. It's Russia. and IU have no clue how many regional native languages are spoken within its borders - but I expect no other country on Earth can show up with such a high number. History, religions and races prevent seeing it as just one giant zone of transition from Europe to Asia, with exclusion of any own-identity of "Russia", to me that makes no sense. Its no small enclave of something, it is a giant place with many faces instead.

http://www2.pic-upload.de/img/31265231/Unbenannt.jpg (http://www.pic-upload.de/view-31265231/Unbenannt.jpg.html)

Dont argue about whether that strip I marked should be 100km wider or narrower here and there, its just a sketch done on the fly and without spending thoughts on any possible individual location and vilage there is. You get the general idea. Empires do not just end, but have a periphery that overlaps with that of the neighbouring empire, sphere. Here the one fades in and the other fades out, depending on what direction you are moving at. History, race, culture, religion, language, value systems, and so forth - all play a role.

The idea that Europe stretches out to the Ural, is absurd to me. That is desktop thinking only. I knew Russians. For them, even the middle between the distance Moscow - Ural did not show much European influence anymore. Russia becomes truly Russian long time West of the Ural already.

Diopos

07-21-16, 02:00 PM

Skybird

07-21-16, 03:01 PM

@ Skybird
There is a interesting theory of historic/geopolitical thinking about the "interim region" between West (Catholic/Protestant Europe) and the East (Sino/indian /Far East). An interesting observation concerning the southern balkan+ asia minor part of it is that it is stable when a state entity controls simultaneously the Bosphorus and both sides of the Aegean + Crete (Roman Empire, Byzantium then the Ottoman Empire). Compare it to the situation today and you get an answer. The misfortune regarding Turkey is that there are parts of the society that are extremely close to a conventional european """framework""" of thought regarding science arts economy religious tolerance and politics. Probably they will suffer the most ...
They will, they already do, and it is like that since many years now. We talk about Istanbul, the Western Aegean coast, and the part NorthEast of the Bosporus, also some more major cities that have tourist contact to the West, Antalya and such. But as I repeatedly said, 80% of the Turkish population lives outside the major cities, in rural, often very poor places: and here Islamic orthodoxy and archaic Turkish social structure, the extreme patriarchalism in families, of course also the AKP, dominate at will, here is where the AKP originally came from and where it has its powerhouse. This is whatn Turkeyx mainly is, not the business metropole of Istanbul and the tourist ressorts at the Turkish reviera. The more Western-oriented Turkish "Bildungsbürgertum", to use the German term for it, is a minority, it already was that in the 90s when I were in Turkey for some longer time. The Kemalist era (with its secularism as well as its corruption), was an intermezzo only, an experiment that was proven to have failed when Erdoghan was allowed to become Führer a decade ago.

Religious orthodoxy never had gone away, it only slept over a longer Kemalist winter. And now the sleeper has awakened. The path of Turkey now is decided, and clear. And we in the West will not like it. We must adapt to it, and start to no longer try the old ways of dealiung withTurkey. TZhey have failed, and they will not function all of a sudden. Time for a new strategy. Containment and confrontation must be parts of it. If we do not understand that, Turkey will give Europe as well as Washington hell.

Catfish

07-22-16, 02:53 AM

Contrary to some opinions above Turkey has been a secular democracy for some time, as long as secular politicians and the army cared for it. Erdoghan himself is not Muslim or Anti-Muslim, he just uses all to his personal advantage.

Excellent article about the "death of a democracy", only in german i'm afraid:
(GMX together with Spiegel online)
http://www.gmx.net/magazine/politik/putsch-tuerkei/tod-demokratie-31698422

Get. Those. Nukes. Out.

Skybird

07-23-16, 05:32 AM

Turkey always was Muslim - it was just supressed by the Kemalist secularism, Catfish. But Islam always was there, and strong under the surface, it never was successfully done away. The Kemalist elite lost support with the ordinary people due to its inherent corruption and the abuse resulting from that. The AKP very strongly rests in religion. Orthodoxy, Islam, always was much stronger in the rural places, than in the metropoles. It does not matter whether Erdoghan just stage-acts and plays the religious card - he probably does, like Saddam did - or is truly religious: its the power of the attractiveness of religion for the masses that causes this disaster in Turkey. Erdoghan's Führer-cult just makes it even worse. What he wants, essentially is an Erdoghanisty.

I predicted all this already over ten years ago, here in the forum. Many did not want to believe me. - My last experiences with being in Turkey's East, near the Iranian border and in the Kurdish areas, are twenty years ago - already back then the attitude towards Westerners was very cold and supremacist, and the belief of one's own national and religious superiority was extremely strong amongst rural Turks, the traditional demands and rules of hospitality were met when we came, noi matter whether with or without previous announcement, okay - but often on such ice-cold minimal level of standards that it could not cover the underlaying hostility. The rite was done, but its spirit not met, so to speak. And that was not just suspicion towards the foreigners, or suspicion that maybe we would sympathise with the Kurds.

Nothing of what we now see, surprises me. It just pisses me nevertheless. You can know in advance, and still be pissed when it finally materialises.

I wonder whether Erdoghans calculation to install himself as the new voice of the Islamic world really can work. The Turks are not Arabs, and the Ottoman empire was known for and hated for its explicit brutality and contempt it acted with towards the Arabs it dominated. The Arab world in principle despises and hates Turks, almost as much as it despises and dislikes Palestinian Arabs, if not more. Relögious fervor and momentary momentums may covert that - I wonder whether that really can last with the Arab crowds. Its not just anybody they should applaude for - its the Turks.

---

10,000 additional arrest in the past 36 hours :o. another 1000 schools shut, plus 15 universities. One third of the staff in governmental offices sacked, fired, removed. :o:o:o