Kaesong Industrial Complex in North Korea

[Onkel Neal]

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/02/17/will-kim-jong-un-go-to-war.html


In a nationally televised speech Tuesday, South Korean President Park Geun Hye defended her controversial decision to close the Kaesong Industrial Complex in North Korea. She also delivered comments sure to enrage Kim Jong Un, the leader of that destitute and dangerous state.

For instance, she promised her government would take “stronger and more effective” measures to impress upon Pyongyang that its nuclear program would hasten “regime collapse.” She talked about Kim’s state as “merciless” and mentioned its “extreme reign of terror.”

Park also broke other taboos, mentioning Kim by name, taunting him. Compounding the affront, she chose his father’s birthday to make her remarks.

Who says Congress cannot get something done? For once the US govt seemed to be in synch.

Kim has other punishments to worry about. Congress will almost certainly pass H.R. 757, the North Korea Sanctions and Policy Enhancement Act of 2016, which the Senate toughened and adopted by a 96-0 vote, and the Obama administration will be under pressure to enforce it.

If China would act, the end of this nutcase could be achieved and millions of North Koreans could begin to rebuild their country and live normal lives.

[Schroeder]

If China would act, the end of this nutcase could be achieved and millions of North Koreans could begin to rebuild their country and live normal lives.
Not really. What sort of government would follow? Democracy is something that can't be enforced on a people, we've seen that with Germany after WWI. Besides the moment the borders open North Korea will be empty and neither China nor South Korea are interested in getting a stream of refugees that will make the current one to Europe look like a birthday party. Another thing is that North Korea will still be an economic disaster with no real hope of a quick fix as there is neither the know how to get things going nor the infrastructure and attractiveness for foreign investors to build up something there. So even if Kimmy the Fat where to be swallowed by the earth tomorrow it would be a long road to a free North Korea that has a place in the world's society.

[Onkel Neal]

All right then, we can write them off.

[mapuc]

For the people in NK I hope Kim Jong Un will be gone sooner than later.

I fear though that he will not go freely without some kind of retaliation to wards primary his own people, who he feel has betrayed him or he attack SK or more likely China who has as he feel "stabbed him in the back"

Markus

[Oberon]

I don't know about write them off, but the Kim dynasty certainly isn't going anywhere soon sadly. Nearly every scenario that involves removing the DPRK government results in a massive negative fallout for South Korea and China. This is one of the reasons that Beijing puts up with Pyongyang, even though the DPRK is a constant embarrassment to China. I think that this image by jollyjack sums their relationship up best:

https://rapacrude.files.wordpress.com/2015/08/11951940_10107036906125594_3210546251536532391_n.j pg

A lot of people wonder why we haven't gone in and kicked Kim out yet, or why China hasn't done the same. The answer is the estimated 25 million people who live in North Korea, most of whom are poorly educated with minimal to no qualifications. If war should come to the DPRK it will result in a lot of those people either trying to cross the DMZ (mostly in pieces) or more likely trying to swim across the Yalu river into China. China cannot handle such a massive wave of refugees, it would make the current chaos in Europe look like a toddlers birthday party. The Chinese economy would collapse and then take most of the world down with it.
Likewise South Korea, providing that the refugees could get across the DMZ, would not be able to handle reunification. When Germany was unified after the wall came down, there was a lot of economic difficulties and even now there is still an economic divide between East and West Germany which follows the old inter-German border, and the DDR was nowhere near as technologically backward as North Korea is.
The most we can hope for North Korea is that somewhere along the line they get themselves a leader who is open to detente and the gradual dismantling of the Juche state, but it would take a long time to do it properly, a generation or two at least, and given the regime they've built up in North Korea, I doubt that such a reformist would last long before being couped. I have my own suspiscions that Kim Jong-un got a general basically ruling Korea through him, because of the more concillatory approach that he displayed on first taking power versus the more confrontational approach that he has adopted since then, plus the various executions that have taken place within the army. It's a bit like Deutschland '83 meets Game of Thrones. :doh:

Speaking of 'Best Korea'™ these pics popped up on imgur the other day, have a link:
http://www.m1key.me/photography/road_to_north_korea/



EDIT: Huh, that moment when you accidentally use the same metaphor as Schroeder.


EDIT EDIT: Besides, never mind about China acting, the nation most likely to start a new war on the Korean peninsula is probably South Korea. Just ask the US soldiers stationed there, they'll tell you that they're not there to stop the Norks coming over, but to stop the South Koreans from invading the North! :haha:

[mapuc]

It makes me so sad

- No people of NK you have to live with Kim and stay in poverty for the rest of your life and your son and daughters also.

Markus

[Oberon]

Aye, it's a rotten situation and no mistake. One can perhaps hope that many of them, in the central parts of the DPRK at least and not around the borders where ROK transmissions can reach them, know no difference. To them the world is and always has been what they have heard and been told by official North Korean broadcasts. Some brave souls might listen to the BBC or to South Korean broadcasts, but at great risk and they wouldn't be able to talk to anyone else about it because they'd be arrested and sent for re-education.
If and when the day does come and Korea is reunified, it's going to be the biggest culture shock in generations.

[mapuc]

Aye, it's a rotten situation and no mistake. One can perhaps hope that many of them, in the central parts of the DPRK at least and not around the borders where ROK transmissions can reach them, know no difference. To them the world is and always has been what they have heard and been told by official North Korean broadcasts. Some brave souls might listen to the BBC or to South Korean broadcasts, but at great risk and they wouldn't be able to talk to anyone else about it because they'd be arrested and sent for re-education.
If and when the day does come and Korea is reunified, it's going to be the biggest culture shock in generations.

no doubt about it

I guess SK USA, China and other countries in the area would face a great task to:
1. Feed the people
2. Educate them so they can bread feed them self in the future
3. Educate them in every way.

This will be a huge task.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

If and when the day does come and Korea is reunified, it's going to be the biggest culture shock in generations.

Most definitely but let us get out of the EU and prepare for the event first :)

[August]

All right then, we can write them off.

Leaving millions in chains because its convenient seems to be an all too common solution around here.

[Mr Quatro]

The only real solution is unity of the peoples of Korea.

Many south Koreans still have friends and family in north Korea as President Bush found out when he bad mouthed North Korea as being an evil axis.

Remember what happened in the Romanian Revolution of 1989:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Romanian_Revolution
could happen in Korea without nuclear weapons being fired.

[Oberon]

Honestly an internal North Korean revolution would probably be the best way forward, however any such revolution would have to have the support of the armed forces, and would likely end up with the armed forces in charge in some form or another. How much good such a thing would do for the actual people of North Korea is unknown, most likely it would just be swapping one ruthless dictator for another.
If a way could be found to bring gradual reunification of the Koreas then that would be fantastic, but a short sharp shock would be ruinous for both sides. Especially for the poor souls that would flee into China, those that flee there now are either returned if they're male (and likely sent straight for 're-education' on arrival) or sold to Chinese men if they're women.

[August]

This is all Russias fault. If they hadn't backed Red China there would be a unified Korea right now.

[Skybird]

The military caste nd its fat cats in NK is extremely big and enjoys many priviliges that all would be gone if the regime falls. Make your conclusions.

And many decades of propaganda and brainwashing will have left their tracks, too. Many Northkoreans LOVE their leader, or so they think. And would hate anyone taking away the illusions from them.

We still have quite some of such former Eastgermans as well who did not take it easily that the GDR has fallen. Quite some struggle with it until today. And its a quarter of a century ago already!

[Onkel Neal]

Leaving millions in chains because its convenient seems to be an all too common solution around here.

Yeah, I know. NK has 3 channels devoted 24/7 to praising the State, massive psychological damage to these people. Where's all the liberal sympathy for millions enslaved under these dictators?


Originally Posted by Mr Quatro: The only real solution is unity of the peoples of Korea.

Many south Koreans still have friends and family in north Korea as President Bush found out when he bad mouthed North Korea as being an evil axis.

Remember what happened in the Romanian Revolution of 1989:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Romanian_Revolution
could happen in Korea without nuclear weapons being fired.

I know, man, that would make me so happy. :/\\k:

[ikalugin]

Somehow Vietnam managed to develop just fine post the Vietnam war. Maybe if ROK was not a military dictatorship till 90s DPRK would have followed the paths of Vietnam and other ex Eastern Block countries.

[Oberon]

I don't think that even if the ROK had chilled that the DPRK would have mellowed as well, Vietnam and the DPRK are very different nations, their leaders were very different personalities. For Vietnam it was Nguyen V|an Linh who turned Vietnam into a industrialised nation, much as Deng Xiaoping pulled China out of the mud and into the economic world.
With Kim Il Sung, well you just have to look at the name he chose 'Kim become the sun', it's like Stalin 'Man of Steel', and it became that cult of personality which he encouraged even before the Korean war began.
Once you start down that path, it's very hard to come off it again, and it does rather limit your options as you are forced to be the man who the image represents. I think Putin will probably have found that out a few times when his options have been restricted because of his 'hard man' image preventing de-escalation.
The leaders of Vietnam, even Ho Chi Minh, despite his famous reputation, didn't really have that much of a cult of personality around them, which gave the nation more room to maneuver.

[ikalugin]

Both USSR and PRC got over the whole "cult of personality" thing. Stalin has conducted the industrialisation and under his leadership USSR became the super power.

So I don't think that it is about the starting leadership either, though it may be a factor.

[August]

Both USSR and PRC got over the whole "cult of personality" thing.

Yeah one collapsed and the other was forced to embrace capitalism in order to survive.

[Jimbuna]

Yeah one collapsed and the other was forced to embrace capitalism in order to survive.

I think it could be argued there is a lot of merit in that.

[Mr Quatro]

Yeah one collapsed and the other was forced to embrace capitalism in order to survive.

The people were tired of being told what to do, standing in lines for bread, dying of neglect, while the party had access to all of the worlds goods, plus the people were watching American movies that showed us better off.

The people won a better society and got Putin for life lol

[mako88sb]

The people were tired of being told what to do, standing in lines for bread, dying of neglect, while the party had access to all of the worlds goods, plus the people were watching American movies that showed us better off.

The people won a better society and got Putin for life lol

I believe I read somewhere that Stalin prohibited the movie "The Grapes of Wrath" from being shown there because he didn't want his people to see that even the poorest of Americans could still have their own vehicle.

[Onkel Neal]

I believe I read somewhere that Stalin prohibited the movie "The Grapes of Wrath" from being shown there because he didn't want his people to see that even the poorest of Americans could still have their own vehicle.

Yeah, I heard that too. When I first went to Russia, I spent a lot of time explaining how life in the US was close to how it was shown in Hollywood, as far as cars, clothes, and food. Houses, I explained not everyone lived in a big ol' 6 bedroom house like it seemed all families did in the movies. But, houses in general, Americans had, whereas I never saw any houses in Moscow, just apartments.