Black Tiger V-A political and military aftermath

[mapuc]

Right now I'm playing a scenario called Black Tiger V(in Command-modern air and naval operation)

Th scenario is divided into 5 parts in part 4 my fleet who was transiting the strait of Hormuz was attacked, which mean a war between USA and Iran.

This scenario is 5 ½ day long after about 1½ day playtime I got a message saying something like

an attempted nuclear strike on American soil, Iran denies any knowledge to this and I have the right to fire nukes on Iran-got three targets to hit.

I did as ordered to-fired a salvo of UGM-133 Trident II D5.

Watch them fly and hit their targets.

a few second later I start to wonder

If this was real-what would the political and the military aftermath be ?

I see one military aftermath

Some hours after the detonations of the first nuke-Iran will send a lot of rocket and/or missiles with deadly load of nukes to wards Israel. Don't know how Hamas and other terror group would react.

Markus

[Oberon]

General chaos really. Russia and China would go on maximum alert but ultimately would not fire back. Iran would fire everything it had at Israel, Israel would return the favour with gusto. Every Iranian backed militant group would go beserk and several others that aren't Iranian backed would also go mental. The general public would be in a state of panic greater than that seen during 9/11, I wouldn't be surprised if curfews would be imposed. Certainly there would be a fear in the first few hours after the strike on Iran that Russia would strike the US in retaliation, that would lead to public panic, mass exoduses from cities and a breakdown in law and order across US urban areas.
When Russia doesn't fire then there will be a lot of moral based questions being asked, especially since the US fired before definite proof was given that Iran was behind the attempted attack. Since the attack was foiled then more people would be inclined to think that the US jumped the gun in retaliating with nuclear weapons, but had the attack succeeded then it would be more in the other direction as the bloodlust rose.

That's just for staters, the first two or three days.
In Iran there would be an immediate breakdown in law and order, most likely a state of civil war would occur, Saudi Arabia would condemn both attacks publically and move to capitalise on Irans sudden temporary departure from Middle East politics, Yemen in particular would see a dramatic increase in Saudi forces as they move to finish the job while orders from Tehran aren't coming in to their forces in the area. There would also be outbreaks of disease and sickness in the target cities and the surrounding area, any Iranian centers of population would see both rioting and evacuations as people expect more American nukes to arrive. The nations around Iran would see refugees, who would eventually head for Europe via the usual routes, adding even more bodies to the European refugee crisis.
The usual suspects would condemn and condone Americas attack, but even those who condone it would likely view America with some disquiet in the years following for being not only the only nation to use nuclear weapons in anger in WWII, but the only nation to use them in anger since. That's not a title that you particularly want to own in todays world.
The US government could probably sell its actions to its own people fairly easily, especially the 'Nuke the Middle East' crowd, as Goering once said: "...the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same way in any country."
Finally, and perhaps the longest echo of the attack would be the breaking of the nuclear weapons taboo, that they should be considered such a weapon that they should not be used at any cost. This would encourage other nations to reconsider their stance on the first use of nuclear arms in any particular conflict that they find themselves in.
Oh, and the Doomsday clock would likely go to 23:59.

[mapuc]

Thank you so much this "in-deep" analysis of a what-if scenario

From the knowledge I have about Middle East I would say you were 100 % right in what you wrote.

Markus

[ikalugin]

Oil prices?

[mapuc]

Oil prices?


The Oil prices would have gone strait up into the sky, right after Iran and some groups of Russian separatist attacked the USN in the strait of Hormuz

Markus

[ikalugin]

Sadly I am not fammiliar with the scenario.

However, considering the local consequences you would have de facto sunni dominance of ME outside of Israel, maybe to the extend of Arab unification in some capacity (ie under ISIS), especially with weakened Israel and islamic groups going totally kebab.

Should the ME become dominated by a revolutionary regional power, with global ambitions, it would have interesting consequences.

Rising prices of oil would again have consequences on places such as Russia (immagine petrol priced in 200+ USD/barrel price range) and possibly on slowing/reversing Chinese growth.

[Oberon]

I think that Daesh would probably fracture if it grew too large, most likely between local Sultans, each veying for dominance. After all, if you're going to cling to a medieval system, you have to expect medieval problems. :haha:
Oil prices, yeah, it would be 1973 again, runs on the pumps, Putin falling off the Kremlin laughing, the Chinese panicking.
Worse case scenario if oil prices go too high it could collapse the fragile Chinese economy, although it would depend on when the scenario took place but right now China is in a pretty troubling place, something like this happening could push it over the edge.
Once the Chinese economy goes down, it takes the US one with it, which then takes Europe and Japan with it, and we're back in 2008 again. There's also the risk of an uprising within China by the die-hard communists looking to get rid of the Deng crowd while blaming them for all of Chinas economic woes (convieniently forgetting the dung heap that was the PRCs economy under Mao), and if that happens well all bets regarding local territorial claims around the PRC are off. I wouldn't put it past them to try something on Taiwan in order to keep the peoples minds off the dramatic shake-up that replacing the current PRC government would involve.
Of course, with the US shown as willing to use nuclear weapons, then the PRC would have to consider its options in regards to Taiwan, and the results of that would depend entirely on the mindset of those in charge.

In short, mapuc, you broke the planet, GG. :haha:

[ikalugin]

I view ISIS as potentially revolutionary power the same way RSFSR/USSR was viewed back in 1920s and current events as the breakdown of Russian Empire/civil war.
Should a galvanising event occur, then I would view creation of such revolutionary regional power with global ambitions more likely. And if it get's their moustage carrier from Caucasus, who knows.

[CCIP]

I view ISIS as potentially revolutionary power the same way RSFSR/USSR was viewed back in 1920s and current events as the breakdown of Russian Empire/civil war.

I don't; the real important difference is that the Russian revolution, for all its faults, had a real economic basis, problematic though its solutions might've been. It was a sort of forward-looking quasi-Marxist response to the problems of industrialization in a world made up of nation-states, and it had a basis in a Russian economy which was no joke. Isis is a joke. In a global, post-nation-state world, their only economic basis is the patience/insanity of their benefactors, and are already successfully biting many of the hands that feed them. They will eat themselves within a few years because they're not capable of surviving in the world as it is today.

That goes with some irony as well, seeing that in many ways the original expansion of Islamic rule was an economic revolution, spurned by Mohammed - a merchant - who had a very good understanding of how the economics of his world worked, and had succeeded largely through being able to consolidate and improve the Arab world's economic system from a backwater to a world power. IS has no abilities of this sort and no economic ground to stand on. And I would go so far as to say that IS are already effectively finished; the discussion around them is merely a convenient cover for the continuing attempts by far more traditional regional powers to bite off a bigger piece of influence. Again, so far Iran is probably the main beneficiary, having expanded their influence far more over the last couple of years than IS ever could.

[Jimbuna]

Jamie, I'm looking into that book deal now :know:

[Catfish]

Anyone read the book "Rubicon One" from Dennis Jones?

Cold war fiction, but A Pakistan-Iran nuclear capabilties scenario, reminded me somehow..