Malaysian Airlines MH317

[Jimbuna]

Another Malaysian tragedy :nope:

A Malaysian airliner carrying 295 people has crashed in east Ukraine on a flight from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur, amid allegations it was shot down.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28354856

[CCIP]

actually it's just 17

FlightAware ADS-B data tracked it all the way until about a minute before shootdown

http://flightaware.com/live/flight/MAS17

[mapuc]

This is from Carl Bildt the Swedish Foreign Minister saying to a Swedish Newspaper

" If it is true, then it is "so terrible as it may be, that the passenger aircraft has been shot down."

He believes that it will have very far-reaching consequences if the data on the planet really have been shot down by Ukrainian separatists is correct.

- Not just for the separatists, but also for those who ensure that the separatists get this type of weapon. There are reports that Russia has provided the group with advanced anti-aircraft missiles, more advanced than we have in Sweden.

Foreign Minister Bildt also writes on Twitter that there are signs that Russia has supplied separatists in Ukraine with advanced anti-aircraft missiles."

Markus

[kranz]

could anyone translate this?
https://scontent-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpa1/t1.0-9/10553357_10204626339363038_4205201168132194311_n.j pg

[Herr-Berbunch]

Aaaaaaaaaaand the rumour-mill starts.

Russian gloating on social media about shooting down Ukrainian 'cargo' plane, all comments suddenly removed.

Why are civvy airlines routing flights over a such a volatile region?

[Biggles]

Aaaaaaaaaaand the rumour-mill starts.

Russian gloating on social media about shooting down Ukrainian 'cargo' plane, all comments suddenly removed.

Why are civvy airlines routing flights over a such a volatile region?

This was my first thought as well. I hate it when security-related changes are made after tragedy strikes.

Then again, might be too early to determine exactly the cause of the crash. In any case, a real shame and great tragedy for everyone involved.

[Dread Knot]

Why are civvy airlines routing flights over a such a volatile region?


Maybe because nobody expected them to be idiotic enough to randomly shoot at planes flying over their airspace without proper radar confirmation...? Though, one would think with all of the precautions being taken lately, it would be better to be cautious.

Well, whatever the reason, or whoever it was if a launch is confirmed, it seems that it would be insane and almost inconceivable for it to be a Ukrainian launch, because the rebels don't actually have airplanes....that I know of. But then there will be the false flag spin as well.

[Biggles]

I've read on some other forums that the rebels have some SU-25s at their disposal. Haven't seen anything that confirms this tho.

[Oberon]

Rumour has it that it was a Buk SAM launcher. both Ukraine and Russia use them as frontline launchers, it's unknown if the Russian separatists operate any, although it's thought that they use Manpads which wouldn't have the range to reach the aircraft at 33,000 ft.

So it's either a Russian, Ukrainian or pro-Russian missile that's responsible for this. It's alledged that the US has satellites that can ID the IR signature of a SAM launch, so they might be able to shed some light on the owner of the missile...alternatively it's entirely possible that an aircraft shot it down with an air-to-air missile, which would put it out of the fault of the pro-Russian separatists.

[mapuc]

Shouldn't we wait until the Ukrainian NSTB have made a report of what made this plane crash.

It's nothing more than speculation.

I'll wait and so does the Western politicians

Markus

[Oberon]

Well, the FDR has been found and allegedly being sent to Moscow...

[Jimbuna]

Well, the FDR has been found and allegedly being sent to Moscow...

Now the rumours of possible tampering will begin :)

[mapuc]

Well, the FDR has been found and allegedly being sent to Moscow...

Now I write with a suspicious mind

Is that a smart move to make? The Russian could make this FDR "disappear"
(if it was shot down by separatist using an advanced Russian SAM-system)

Wouldn't it have been better to hand it over to a third party...let say Switzerland

Markus

[Catfish]

I wonder if the truth will come out, whatever it is.
Could as well be a hull crack, engine failure or electrical problem, would not be the first time with the 777.
But we should at least wait for the official saying, upon which then all agree :-?

[mapuc]

I wonder if the truth will come out, whatever it is.
Could as well be a hull crack, engine failure or electrical problem, would not be the first time with the 777.
But we should at least wait for the official saying, upon which then all agree :-?

Agree lets wait

Markus

[Oberon]

Now I write with a suspicious mind

Is that a smart move to make? The Russian could make this FDR "disappear"
(if it was shot down by separatist using an advanced Russian SAM-system)

Wouldn't it have been better to hand it over to a third party...let say Switzerland

Markus

Well, it was (again allegedly) pro-Russian forces that found it, so they're not going to send it to Kiev. If Moscow makes it disappear then it will just make itself look guilty. No, Moscow will play ball, and if it is discovered that it was shot down by a Buk SAM then it will claim that the Ukrainians shot it down, and the Ukraine will claim that it was Russia or Russian equipment given to the pro-Russian forces, and so on and so forth.
Of course, as Jim has correctly pointed out, there will be allegations against Moscow of tampering with the FDR (if, and I stress IF, the reports that it has been sent to Moscow are true) and lots of finger pointing but evidence will be harder to come by.

[nikimcbee]

http://news.sky.com/story/1302864/malaysian-plane-shot-down-with-295-on-board

[Skybird]

Most likely shot-down, most likely by separatists, most likely via BUK launchers conquered from Ukrainian forces.

Why flight routes over a shooting-war region are not changed, to save some drops of fuel, is beyond me. After yesterday's killing of an Ukrainian SU-25 at the latest - which flew at several thousand meters - this should have become a most obvious and natural step.

FYI, the Buk is better known ander the NATO-code SA-11 Gadfly. It is operated by Russian and Ukrainian forces as well. the system can track and fioght targets at altitudes between 100m and max. 22km, typical engagement ranges are 10-20 km, maximum tracking range around 35 km. The system was fielded in the mid-60s, later versions were produced until the late 90s.

[kranz]

Ukrainians intercepted a transmission between GRU officers and separatists confirming that it was the separatists who shot the plane down.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=V5E8kDo2n6g

[mapuc]

@ Skybird

"conquered from Ukrainian forces"

This was new to me

I have so far heard that they got this SAM-system from the Russian

Markus

[aergistal]

Most likely shot-down, most likely by separatists, most likely via BUK launchers conquered from Ukrainian forces
Sad news... Isn't the SA-11 equipped with an IFF interrogator however? What were they thinking.

[Jimbuna]

Anyone know definitively yet what really ocurred?

[Wolferz]

Malaysia Airlines might want to take a closer look at their pilots. Seems to me that they have a few too many nuts flying their aircraft.:hmmm:

[Skybird]

@ Skybird

"conquered from Ukrainian forces"

This was new to me

I have so far heard that they got this SAM-system from the Russian

Markus
The rebels have claimed they conquered "sophisticated SAM systems" during attacks of theirs earlier. Wikipedia says Russia has around 250 such systems, the Ukraine around 60.

On the IFF interrogator, there are half a dozen different technical systems of the SA-11, with developments from the early 60s to the mid-90s. Possible that some versions have that tech equipment, others not - I do not know.

Also, if it was fired from a system formerly owned by Ukraine, maybe the switched off IFF deliberately in order to not get locked out when targetting Ukrainian planes.

Another idea I have oin mind as well: the shot-down has been deliberately done by Ukrainian forces - so that pressure can be mounted against Russia and the separatists and turning global opinion agaiunst them. It would be the same tactics like Hamas currently uses once again in Gaza when tryin g to increase the number of killed Palestinian Arabs in Gaza. Saakashvili did the same in Georgia, ordering his missile artillery to bombard civilian appartment buildings at night, with sleeping civilians inside, and then accusing the Russians of having committed the warcrime and again demanding NATO to militarily intervene against Russia. So you think that scenario of the Ukrainians shooting down a plane with foreigners is unlikely? For politicians, nothing is unlikely, and similiar stuff already has happened before in the Ukraine, on the Maidan, with the snipers. Kiew-loyal snipers opened fire there, causing many deaths in short time. Later, separatists, even Russian special commandos were accused, with the hints and known radio com protocols speaking against that. - I don't say the plane got shot down this way - I only remind of that it is war, and war is the biggest party of all - anything goes.

[mapuc]

@ Skybird, thank you for your answer.

Some hours ago I was in a discussion with a Danish local politician

He want the airforce from NATO to conduct some SEAD-operation in that area

I have asked him and others if they have any idea of what kind of consequences this could lead to.

I'm a pacifist so any military solution is not a good solution. Or it has to be the very last thing we do.

Should we let they who did this go free?

Of course not. We should track them and prosecute them

Markus

[Skybird]

NATO has no business there. Nor do I want it to send any horse into that race. The last thing we need is Russian and NATO soldiers starting to exchange fire. The Ukraine is no NATO territory or member, and I hope it never becomes that, and NATO is no global fire brigade, I am already pissed by the way it entangled itself in Afghanistan, Libya. And now a NATO air war right on the Russian border? Much speaks for the Russian forces already being engaged in the Ukraine, militarily. So think twice before sending NATO forces into their action zone. You are talking war with Russia here.

Tell your Danish politicians he is an idiot if he wants a military intervention by NATO in that environment. Sorry for being rude, but nothing better he deserves. He's an idiot.

NATO is for defending NATO members within the treaty territory's borders. That, and nothing more. Not Afghanistan. Not the Western Pacific. Not North Africa. Not the Eastern Ukraine.

[mapuc]

NATO has no business there. Nor do I want it to send any horse into that race. The last thing we need is Russian and NATO soldiers starting to exchange fire. The Ukraine is no NATO territory or member, and I hope it never becomes that, and NATO is no global fire brigade, I am already pissed by the way it entangled itself in Afghanistan, Libya. And now a NATO air war right on the Russian border? Much speaks for the Russian forces already being engaged in the Ukraine, militarily. So think twice before sending NATO forces into their action zone. You are talking war with Russia here.

Tell your Danish politicians he is an idiot if he wants a military intervention by NATO in that environment. Sorry for being rude, but nothing better he deserves. He's an idiot.

NATO is for defending NATO members within the treaty territory's borders. That, and nothing more. Not Afghanistan. Not the Western Pacific. Not North Africa. Not the Eastern Ukraine.

First of all, I'm not going to tell my FB-friend he is an.... I guess he was filled with angry feeling, like many of us had when we got the news

I totally agree NATO has absolutely nothing to do in that area. However I have this feeling in my stomach that we are heading that way.

Markus

[Stealhead]

I would not discount the possiabilty that the Ukrainians did this on accident. Such a mistake has been made in the past by Ukrainian air defence during a time of peace. I honestly feel if this was thier mistake they would not be willing to admit it.

The Russians would also want to avoid blame if it was due. At any rate I am sure it was a mistake. I consider both sides claims as questionable.

Seems like most media is quick to blame Russia but with what solid evidance?

[Betonov]

Seems like most media is quick to blame Russia but with what solid evidance?

Our media is also fond of blaming the Russians. In a country with a pro-russian attitude. The comments sections are about to explode

[kranz]

I would not discount the possiabilty that the Ukrainians did this on accident.

I wouldn't discount it either. After all, they have recently shot down their own Su-25 (thinking it was a pro-russian separatist fighter) and An-26 (thinking it was a pro-russian separatist transport plane.).

Oh wait...

[CCIP]

So far, I think it's important to look at points on which all sides agree.

So, first of all, it seems everyone - Russia, Ukraine, rebels and Western observers - agree that this was an SA-11 launcher. There seems to be very little if any disagreement about this.

As of the past hour, both the Donetsk rebels and Ukraine have indicated that no Ukrainian SA-11s were captured by the militants from any Ukrainian bases, and certainly none that would be operable. If those two sides agree, pretty likely that it's true.

The shootdown location rules out that it was shot down from Russian territory - the wreck lies outside of the SA-11's maximum engagement zone. Same is almost certainly true of Ukrainian government-controlled territory.

There is universal agreement that aircraft were fired on in the area - including a Su-25 and An-26 that were shot down over the region over the past two days. The An-26 was reportedly hit at 25,000 feet. Rebels claimed those kills and the losses were confirmed by Ukraine.

So, thus far, signs point to a Russian-provided SAM operated on behalf of the rebels as the most likely version.

[Herr-Berbunch]

Having a SAM with IFF fitted is only going to interrogate military aircraft with IFF fitted. It's not yet standard procedure or common practice to fit IFF on civvy aircraft, but I bet it gets suggested soon.

[Skybird]

As of the past hour, both the Donetsk rebels and Ukraine have indicated that no Ukrainian SA-11s were captured by the militants from any Ukrainian bases, and certainly none that would be operable. If those two sides agree, pretty likely that it's true.

Wrong. The rebels HAVE claimed they captured a Buk M2 system during an attack on June 29th. They NOW claim that they have not, which should surprise nobody, if they were the shooters. Like initially the boasted with having shot down a "military transport" (the Malaysian airliner) - and later deleted all video and statements.

Anton Geraschenko, advisor in the Ukrainian interior ministry, confirmed yesterday to German media that Kiev knows from sources behind the rebels' lines that the rebels have captured a Buk system for sure. This could however be a propaganda claim, due to the source (Kiev). But almolt everything being said these days could be propaganda.

The Ukrainian forces have accidentally shot down a civilian passenger plane by mistake during a military exercise in 2001.

The question not touched so far is who operated the SA-11 system, which is a complex arrangement that noobs and newbies cannot learn to handle well within short time and without instructors. If it was a launcher captured by rebels - if - , then it could only be handled by veterans in in the rebel's lines who have a history of having served in the Ukrainian/forces (not unlikely at all) and who operated SA-11s already back then and so know the system. Or training was provided by Russian instructors, but has not yet been too successful due to lacking time.

The SA11 is mobile. The argument that the shooting location is outside Ukrainian operational areas, suffers from that. They could very well have tried to bring forces ionto the rebels rear, between them and the Russian border - to supress Russian supply crossing the border. Anti-air equipment necessarily would then be part of such a move, to be able to suppress Russian border crossings by air and possible Russian air attacks on Ukrainian forces as well.

To me that is not unlikely. If I were the military commanders in Kiev, I WOULD for sure try to entangle the rebels and especially isolate them from their supply lines over the border.

Edit:
It was claimed that the said-to-be-captured SA-11 was of the M2-type, which is the most modern of the series, produced since 1998, with a maximum range of 50 km (older versions reach just 30 km) and a maximum intercept altitude of 25 km.

The Ukraine operates the SA-11, SA-13, SA-6, SA-4 and the S-300.

[Oberon]

http://en.itar-tass.com/world/738262

[ExFishermanBob]

Might I gently remind one and all that there was increased security last week regarding possible phone-based / electronic equipment-based bombs. Secondly is this not the second Malaysian aircraft to go down in recent months? It could perhaps be a focussed attack upon the Malaysian carrier rather than a missile strike.

[Admiral Halsey]

I gotta admit i'm worried about how the US state department seems to be blaming the Russians even though its only been about 24 hours since the crash. This is one of those disaster that until we know all the facts you don't go blaming people in what was an already volatile situation.

[Dread Knot]

Well, it's been a bonanza for the conspiracy theorists so far. So far I've seen--

Obama did it to distract from the border crisis.
Retaliation for Dutch support for the Ukraine.
Israel did it to distract from their ground operation in the Gaza Strip...had a duplicate of the plane made up and everything.
Big Pharma did it because the AIDS researchers onboard were about to reveal HIV is made up.
Re-entry of the missing MAL flight.

And of course the old stand by...

http://www.sortius-is-a-geek.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/history-channel-hd-aliens-thumb.jpg

Now, if only this could be connected to 9/11 or the Kennedy assassination.

[Schöneboom]

Indeed, the rumour mill's going flat-out at the moment. Some of you may have heard about the "Spanish air traffic controller in Kiev" who claimed two Ukrainian fighters were escorting MH17 over the Donetsk area, implying they actually shot it down. (Or provoked the shootdown by the rebels, would be my take on it.)

So far, given how little can be confirmed, Skybird's first scenario looks the most likely. As a general rule, when choosing between incompetence and a sophisticated conspiracy, go with incompetence.

I've read that for the passengers, at least it was over almost instantly, i.e., they weren't screaming all the way down if the fuselage was pierced at 10km altitude.

[TarJak]

http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2014-07-19/mh17-investigators-face-tough-task-in-ukraine-plane-inquiry/5608814

http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2014-07-19/ukraine-government-says-missile-expert-arrested-near-border/5608744

Some interesting legal questions will need to be answered on this:http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2014-07-18/saul-mh17-disaster-and-international-law/5607108

[Betonov]

I gotta admit i'm worried about how the US state department seems to be blaming the Russians even though its only been about 24 hours since the crash. This is one of those disaster that until we know all the facts you don't go blaming people in what was an already volatile situation.

Don't want to downplay the human cost of the tragedy, but:

Our government is more than willing to eat anything the US state departments serves them and in the middle of negotiations with Russia for a multi billion euro project with hundreds of jobs, this might not go well for us.

[Onkel Neal]

The Russians have shot down several Ukrainian aircraft in this conflict. The NSA hears everything they say via mobile communications. It's quite clear the US knows a lot more about these "separatists" than they have publicized. There were recordings today on NPR of Russian separatists talking about obtaining more military equipment from Russia.

It's too bad the Russians grabbed the evidence (http://www.thedailybeast.com/cheats/2014/07/18/rebels-destroying-evidence-at-mh17-site.html) and the FDR, before the investigation could start.

[Aktungbby]

Lest we forget: we are hardly able to point a finger! The USS Vincennes, on 6/3/88, shot down an Iranian airliner "All 290 on board, including 66 children and 16 crew, died. This attack ranks tenth among the deadliest disasters in aviation history (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_accidents_and_disasters_by_death_toll#Avia tion); the incident retains the highest death toll of any aviation incident in the Persian Gulf and the highest death toll of any incident involving an Airbus aircraft anywhere in the world. The Vincennes had entered Iranian territorial waters after one of its helicopters drew warning fire from Iranian speedboats operating within Iranian territorial limits." For once I find it interesting to wonder how we, in our petroleum imperialist pomposity can point the finger at Russia for its buffer state re-acquisition imperialist policy when neither gang can shoot straight:hmmm:

[Stealhead]

Pretty good point. Seems we (collectively) like to forget about our mistakes.

[TarJak]

I wonder if Abbott will have the balls to follow through on this:http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2014-07-19/growing-pressure-to-ban-putin-from-g20/5609154

Would it make any difference if they did?

[Feuer Frei!]

Would it make any difference if they did?

About as much as sanctions do.

[Skybird]

Wasn't he already banned at the last summit event?

Does nothing to change the Russians' geostrategic interests in the region. That the BRICS states stick with him and allowed negotiations on an anti-dollar coalition coming to a successful end, says all one needs to know.

That it was the rebel side doing the shot, seems to be no longe rin serious doubt. The only questions that remains whether the launcher was delivered by Russia, or conquered from the Ukrainian army, and whether the firing crew got training in the present by Russian specialists, or is formed of veterans knowing the system from their active service time.

[Oberon]

Note to pro-Russian rebels, making yourself look even more guilty than you already are is fail-politick.

Meanwhile in Russia:
http://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/russia-today-correspondent-resigns-over-coverage-of-ukranian?bftw=main

Seems like RT is the Fox News of Russia...wonder what the CNN is? :haha:

[Jimbuna]

The Ukrainians are claiming to have captured two of the three people who fired the missile:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-07-19/ukraine-government-says-missile-expert-arrested-near-border/5608744

The Ukrainian government says it has evidence three people were operating the missile launcher that brought down Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 over rebel-held territory near the Russian border.
Authorities in Kiev say two men have been captured near the border on the Ukrainian side, one of whom reportedly had paperwork indicating he was a missile specialist.

[Feuer Frei!]

The Ukrainians are claiming to have captured two of the three people who fired the missile:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-07-19/ukraine-government-says-missile-expert-arrested-near-border/5608744

Is Ivan the mad in that capture?

[Feuer Frei!]

Wasn't he already banned at the last summit event?

Does nothing to change the Russians' geostrategic interests in the region. That the BRICS states stick with him and allowed negotiations on an anti-dollar coalition coming to a successful end, says all one needs to know.

That it was the rebel side doing the shot, seems to be no longe rin serious doubt. The only questions that remains whether the launcher was delivered by Russia, or conquered from the Ukrainian army, and whether the firing crew got training in the present by Russian specialists, or is formed of veterans knowing the system from their active service time.

Shouldn't be too hard to find out. The region where the plain went down is a war zone.
Recon and Intel would be at a very high level right around the clock.
Someone has seen something.

Delivered by Russia? Well since it's russian built it had to have been delivered at some stage.


http://static01.mediaite.com/med/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/shutterstock_74612860-650x433.jpg

https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/53c9768d6da811c164e03a3f/buk%20m2%20smallest.gif

[kranz]

delivering is one thing. (not that much important).
The other is who operated them - from what I heard, it takes more than a year to train someone in operating these babies.
Go figure.

[Skybird]

Shouldn't be too hard to find out. The region where the plain went down is a war zone.
Recon and Intel would be at a very high level right around the clock.
Someone has seen something.

Whether they will to reveal their recce skills by showing what they know, is something different. Likely leading to politicians claiming that "we know", without proving it by robust evidence.


Delivered by Russia? Well since it's russian built it had to have been delivered at some stage.Lets not mess that one up, else we end up like the Americans in Iraq 2003 - claiming they found traces of chemical weapons and that there have been weapons and hoaa - weapons! , while nobody ever had denied that Iraq had chemicals for sure years before the invasion - and got rid of them years before the invasion. Ukraine is known to operate around 60 Buk systems.

BTW, my NATO reference was misled, it seems. Since the M1 and M2 versions were introduced for the Buk, NATO has relabelled the Buk as SA-17 Grizzly (Gollum for the navy version). A new model, the M3, is entering production this year.

[Oberon]

Whether they will to reveal their recce skills by showing what they know, is something different. Likely leading to politicians claiming that "we know", without proving it by robust evidence.

Sadly I think we're going to see a lot of that kind of thing over the coming weeks, with the west saying 'We know the pro-Russian seperatists did it' and Russia saying 'We know the Ukrainians did it' and both sides chasing each others tails until its forgotten about...likely when something large explodes in Gaza.

[Oberon]

BTW, the Ukraine has claimed that all 60 of its Buk systems are accounted for, so I expect the inspectors will likely want to count them at some point, if they only find 55 then...

[Aktungbby]

Sadly I think we're going to see a lot of that kind of thing over the coming weeks, with the west saying 'We know the pro-Russian seperatists did it' and Russia saying 'We know the Ukrainians did it' and both sides chasing each others tails until its forgotten about...likely when something large explodes in Gaza. Yup, bickered under the carpet of history as with the Vincennes incident by politicos with 'brooms, milling about smartly'. Airliners tend to go in threes-will it be another Malaysian airliner or another missile shootdown of an innocent airliner :hmmm: The 'truth handmaiden here is already accumulating her bodyguard of lies' -WSC; IMHO.

[Skybird]

Often overlooked: the company of Malaysian Air has suffered to total losses in short time, and is now in economically troubled waters. Many business insiders say it is done. That's a lot of families and employees loosing their jobs and financial basis.

Is it impious to mention that, compared to those who mourn losses in lives? No, it is not. For the families in Malaysia the problems are as real as for the families in Netherlands, Germany, and elsewhere. Different, but real.

Since I do not give the Ukrainian "government" any more credibility than the politicians in Moscow or the mob bosses in Donezk and Luhansk, their declaration that they do not miss any missile is as trustworthy for me like Putin claiming something, anything. The lie is an opportunist by nature. What Kiew wants is the same what Georgia wanted in 2006: the West entering war with Russia.

Wait until the association process between Ukraine and not the EU, but the NATO starts to get formalised. That will become a big fun! After all that American plan was what got the show started in last autumn. And the Ukraine will not survive that in its current format. Moscow will rip it into two parts at least.

The West still thinks it is completely innocent in all this. It never was. Chances are without that secret diplomatic process of turning the Ukraine into a NATO member the war of today would not got started, and the Crimean would still belong to the Ukraine. After all, the economical costs for Moscow are immense. The intention to push Ukraine into NATO - became a self-fulfilling prophecy.

[Sbygneus]

is fecit cui prodest, how the romans used to say.
but my bet is stupidity and traditional ruthlesness of russian cossack drunkard scum

[August]

while nobody ever had denied that Iraq had chemicals for sure years before the invasion - and got rid of them years before the invasion.

Well Saddam himself denied that he had gotten rid of them and he was hardly nobody.

[AngusJS]

The West still thinks it is completely innocent in all this. It never was. Chances are without that secret diplomatic process of turning the Ukraine into a NATO member the war of today would not got started, and the Crimean would still belong to the Ukraine. After all, the economical costs for Moscow are immense. The intention to push Ukraine into NATO - became a self-fulfilling prophecy. That's like saying Japan was forced into attacking Pearl Harbor by US sanctions. Baloney. Contrary to whatever Putin may believe, Ukraine is a sovereign nation and can join any alliance it damn well pleases. Russia's reaction to that is their own fault. Putin bears full responsibility.

[Aktungbby]

^EXCELLENT: :Kaleun_Salute:'Cui prodest scelus is fecit' (for whom the crime advances, he has done it') in short form: 'cui bono' :up:

[Oberon]

Since I do not give the Ukrainian "government" any more credibility than the politicians in Moscow or the mob bosses in Donezk and Luhansk, their declaration that they do not miss any missile is as trustworthy for me like Putin claiming something, anything. The lie is an opportunist by nature. What Kiew wants is the same what Georgia wanted in 2006: the West entering war with Russia.

That being said, the Ukrainian government isn't the one denying the OCSE access to the wreckage, in fact, if it's got any sense at all and if it does want the west engaging war with Russia then it will be as open and as transparent as possible in order to deny the Russians any ammunition to use against them.

So far the pro-Russian forces are not doing themselves any favours.

[Catfish]

Yup, bickered under the carpet of history as with the Vincennes incident (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655) by politicos with 'brooms, milling about smartly'. [...]


"The U.S. government deeply regrets this incident"

This is all the US commented at that time when downing the airliner, so it seems it is not so hard to get away with such .... behaviour. :hmmm:

[mapuc]

There are things that I really do not understand fully and maybe I will never get chance to understand it.

Markus

[Skybird]

That's like saying Japan was forced into attacking Pearl Harbor by US sanctions. Baloney. Contrary to whatever Putin may believe, Ukraine is a sovereign nation and can join any alliance it damn well pleases. Russia's reaction to that is their own fault. Putin bears full responsibility.
Oh you happy idealist, reality must be a harsh wakeup for you, eh? :)

Sovereign you are not by romantic claims about ideals for an ideal world were happy people dance around the campfire and do happy songs together while holding each other's hands.

Sovereign you are when you are strong enough to fill your claimed sovereignty with life, and can defend your sovereignty. When you depend on the good will of the other, stronger, to let you believe you are sovereign, then you are not sovereign. You are weak. Dependance and sovereignty are mutually exclusive.

Or like I said repeatedly before: you cannot be tolerant when being weak. You can only be tolerant from a position of strength, and deciding to not use yoiuzr strength to enforce your will on the other. Where you leave the other or follow his wishes while you could not change and stop him anyway - you are not tolerant, but weak, and thus: submissive.

Putin bears responsibility, you say. So what? Maybe we should ripple-talk it a hunbdred times per day: "Putin is repsonsible, Putin is responsible, Puztin is repsonsible". Feel better? So at least this is doing something positive at least for you. Claiming that Putin is responsible, makes you feel better. Fine, congrats. Enjoy the feeling as long as it lasts. ;)

Snactions and Japan attack: well, there are quite some historians who see it right like yoiu said. And some of them say that Roosevelt indeed designed the sanctions so that they would leave no other way for Japan than to declare war - what he wanted, in oder to finally get his country into the war in Europe as well, an option the American people at the time before Pearl Harbour were totally opposing. Just one opinion in the debate amongst historians, yes - but it happens to be the one I share, because it makes more sense and explains more things, than the other theories. But Pearl Harbour is not the Ukraine, Putin is not the Japanese military leadership, and Russia is not the Third Reich. So lets end that argument there.

What you - and many other wellmeaning idelaistic people - need to learn, is sense for realism. Empires and big powers have interests, and geostrategic interests. Ignore them, no matter your motives, and you get yourself into conflict with these powers, inevitably. You may like it, or you may like it not - it doesn't matter. Russia has learnbed the lessons from the betrayal of American diplomacy twenty years ago, and they will not make those mistakes again. They have a geostrategic interest of not letting NATO any closer towards their borders, and it is naive to assume they would play the game to prevevent that move by rules that make sure they would lose it. This is not fair duel in the spirit of sportsmanship. The US has played as foul on other occasions, so don'T act as if you are now surprised by the Russians doing not any different. ;) The US has sacriiceds whole people and coutnries and kicked them into desasters for its kind of "idelaisatic" visions which, translated into plain English, were not idealistic at all, but raw and unforgiving geostrategic powerpolitics - or the failure of these.

Ideals... Everybody talking about ideals when talking about politics, should get his mouth washed out with soap. And if it is a politicians talking about ideals, you know by defintion that he lies from all start on.

What it comes down to, is this: is the Ukraine - a state that in this form exists since just 20 years and has been a very unstable construction from all beginning on, a state totally corrupted by organised crime and so much in financial and economic misery that for decades it would not be able to contribute any positives to the EU or NATO but just will cost immense amounts of money of which most will go into rich oligarchs and criminals' pockets - is this Ukraine worth for the West to start a war with Russia? The answer is a loud and unmistaken NO.

We have much more dangerous and serious problems, really. Anmd we do not evcen digest Kosovo, Bosnia-Herzegonvia, Romania, Bulgaria... The last thing we need is another impotent failed state demadnding to get paid by our taxpayers.

Let the Russians pay for it, or the Eastern parts of it. By that you give them far greater headaches, I promise you. The Ukraine, if it really needed to become an independent state, should have been founded as two states from all beginning on.

[Skybird]

That being said, the Ukrainian government isn't the one denying the OCSE access to the wreckage, in fact, if it's got any sense at all and if it does want the west engaging war with Russia then it will be as open and as transparent as possible in order to deny the Russians any ammunition to use against them.


Because they think it is in their interest. There were earlier opportunities when they gang in Kiev was not that much interested in "transparency" - when that was not in this interest.

I fear you have no argument there.

Trust nobody, Oberon. And that includes the Russians, the separatists, Kiev - and the Europeans and the Americans as well. TRUST NOBODY. It'S all politics.

"States have no friends. States have interests." -
Jack Kornblum, former US ambassador to Germany.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/43/John_Kornblum,_KAS_Berlin,_2014.jpg/220px-John_Kornblum,_KAS_Berlin,_2014.jpg

I could as well refer to Machiavelli, still one of the best political analysts ever. Not perfect and without occasional misjudgements- but still one of the best there ever have been. Because he was a realist who did not let politically correct thinking and emotions or ideals corrupt his observations and conclusions form them , and thus he was - before anything else - a precise observer.

[eddie]

Kevin Bishop, who is a news producer for the BBC, is at the crash site. He says the rebel soldiers are ordering them around, restricting where they can go. He also says the rebels are real suspicious of them, and are offering up their views on who brought the airplane down. One soldier told him, "See those dead bodies, your government did that! The Queen!"

Sounds like the rebels are on some cheap drugs over there,lol

[August]

Interesting article from leftist Slate of all places.

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/foreigners/2014/07/malaysia_airlines_flight_17_crash_reveals_a_true_w ar_vladimir_putin_sowed.html

The End of the Russian Fairy Tale



The downing of the Malaysia Airlines passenger plane has exposed the chaos in Ukraine as a real war.

[mapuc]

Wondering what all this would lead to ?

Markus

[Oberon]

Because they think it is in their interest. There were earlier opportunities when they gang in Kiev was not that much interested in "transparency" - when that was not in this interest.

I fear you have no argument there.

Trust nobody, Oberon. And that includes the Russians, the separatists, Kiev - and the Europeans and the Americans as well. TRUST NOBODY. It'S all politics.

"States have no friends. States have interests." -
Jack Kornblum, former US ambassador to Germany.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/43/John_Kornblum,_KAS_Berlin,_2014.jpg/220px-John_Kornblum,_KAS_Berlin,_2014.jpg

I could as well refer to Machiavelli, still one of the best political analysts ever. Not perfect and without occasional misjudgements- but still one of the best there ever have been. Because he was a realist who did not let politically correct thinking and emotions or ideals corrupt his observations and conclusions form them , and thus he was - before anything else - a precise observer.

Well, that's the point I'm trying to make, and by denying the OCSE inspectors access to the wreckage the pro-Russian forces are destroying what tiny sympathy they may have been able to drum up in the west. It's really as if they are just handing the Ukrainian forces a cassus belli on a plate to pull out all the stops against them with western assistance.
Sure, in the short term it makes sense for them to cover up any evidence that they shot the aircraft down, but in the long term it will probably wind up have being easier for them to have just said "Yes, we did it, it was a mistake and the people involved have been punished, and if you like we can comply with a western investigation into the circumstances around it once a cease-fire has been reached with the Ukrainian government" which would then shift the attention back to the Ukrainian government who would be forced to halt military operations or be accused of trying to impede the investigation into the destruction of MH17.

It's all about spin, the manipulation of the situation to ones advantage, something that Russia is very good at, and western europe is no slouch at either.

I really must get around to reading 'The Prince', I do admire what I've heard of Machiavellis works and the reputation around it. :yep:

[Feuer Frei!]

http://theaviationist.com/2014/07/17/mh17-matter-of-time/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

[CCIP]

Personally, I'm amused that it's just now being revealed as a "real war" to some. It's been a "real war" since at least March.

More disturbingly, it's fitting more and more into the mold of a classic Cold War proxy conflict.

[Skybird]

Well, that's the point I'm trying to make, and by denying the OCSE inspectors access to the wreckage the pro-Russian forces are destroying what tiny sympathy they may have been able to drum up in the west. It's really as if they are just handing the Ukrainian forces a cassus belli on a plate to pull out all the stops against them with western assistance.
Sure, in the short term it makes sense for them to cover up any evidence that they shot the aircraft down, but in the long term it will probably wind up have being easier for them to have just said "Yes, we did it, it was a mistake and the people involved have been punished, and if you like we can comply with a western investigation into the circumstances around it once a cease-fire has been reached with the Ukrainian government" which would then shift the attention back to the Ukrainian government who would be forced to halt military operations or be accused of trying to impede the investigation into the destruction of MH17.

It's all about spin, the manipulation of the situation to ones advantage, something that Russia is very good at, and western europe is no slouch at either.

I really must get around to reading 'The Prince', I do admire what I've heard of Machiavellis works and the reputation around it. :yep:
Better read the "Discorsi" first, its more general in scope. The Prince is best read second, imo. I welcome people reaidng Macchiavelli,m because the opinion on him is very misled. He did not favour underhanded or corrupted politics, he just tried to give precise, uncorrupted answers based on his observations what governing people techcially have to do in order to achieve this or that wanted effect. The moral dimension he generally does not judge. But it is the moral aspect he gets most criticism over. That is absurd. Machievelli was an empiric observer who tried to observe as objectively as he could. His conclusions do not say much about his moral judgements of things - but about how corrupt the mechanisms of powerpolitics by their very essence are. His writing should not scare us of the man - they should scare us about our celebrated ideas on what we call politics, and about ourselves: how easily we allow ourselves getting manipulated if.

On the rebels, and Russian/separatist media, people in the West should understand one thing: for the most, what the Russian say and print, is not meant for the Western audience or politicians, but the people in Russia. And the overwhelming majority of Russians is happy with the way Putin handles things in the Ukraine. Whether Westerners understand that, is not relevant. The confused acting by the rebels is in parts owing to this need to feed the wanted public opinion in Russia, in parts is result of the propaganda feeding back on the rebels themselves. That way you get reports about rebels showing reporters around and claiming that the shot-down was caused by the British.

Want to control the public opinion and media, like you want to control the elevated terrain.

And Putin - he knows he is Pariah by now in the West. He does not care, his political target audiences are not the Europeans or Americans, but his own people or the governments of the BRISC state, namely China. If the rubel runs slow, he can do like the Americans do like decades: print paper money. Buys him time beyond the end of his active career. That is the reason why he is increasing efforts to get the dollar dominance tumbling and falling. Sooner or later, he and China and Brazil will be successful with that.

[TarJak]

http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2014-07-20/un-security-council-considers-mh17-crash-site-resolution/5610108

UN Security Council resolution being considered to push for access to the crash site by international investigators. Don't see the rebels taking any notice.

[Jimbuna]

Agreed and playing devils advocate, why should the rebels take any notice from an organisation that doesn't even recognise them?

[Skybird]

The blackbox with 99% probability has been taken away already, and the rebels had plenty of time to search for evidence they do not want to see in Western hands. The main part of the game already is over.

[Jimbuna]

Reports of 196 bodies having been recovered and ex riot police forming a cordon around the site, bringing back a little stability and discipline.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28389991

[TarJak]

http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2014-07-22/mh17-un-backs-australian-resolution-condemning-plane-downing/5613214

The resolution has passed. Now watch it get ignored by the rebels until Putin steps in to put pressure on them.

[Skybird]

The Ukrainian secret service claims that a Russian Buk launcher with one missing missile has brought to Russia and passed the border.

And the Russian secret service or military claims that an Ukrainian Su-25 had approached the Boeing up to 3 km distance and even climbed to get to its altitude.

(The Su-25 is a ground attack-specialised combat aircraft, but it can carry AAMs, too.)

Wowh, I miss the UFO hysteria of the 80s and 90s! Things were so clear and well-sorted back then! You just had to chose what you wanted to believe, and then you did believe it and were happy. But today, all these many facts, it makes it difficult, doesn't it.

So good to see so qualified, trustworthy sources contributing their expertise to the final examination report! :D

[Oberon]

The Ukrainian secret service claims that a Russian Buk launcher with one missing missile has brought to Russia and passed the border.

And the Russian secret service or military claims that an Ukrainian Su-25 had approached the Boeing up to 3 km distance and even climbed to get to its altitude.

Highly possible that both are correct.

A Ukrainian Frogfoot could well have been in the area near the Boeing and was subsequently targeted by the Buk, which due to inept operators promptly shot down the Boeing.

[TarJak]

Just heard that the flight recorders have been handed over to Malaysian authorities and a cease fire declared around the crash site. Putin?

[CCIP]

Why must it be Putin?

On that subject - I'm not exactly in the Ron Paul fan club, but you know, I have to mostly agree with his commentary here:

http://www.fitsnews.com/2014/07/20/ron-paul-press-isnt-reporting-malaysia-airline-attack/
Of course it is entirely possible that the Obama administration and the U.S. media has it right this time, and Russia or the separatists in eastern Ukraine either purposely or inadvertently shot down this aircraft. The real point is, it’s very difficult to get accurate information so everybody engages in propaganda. At this point it would be unwise to say the Russians did it, the Ukrainian government did it, or the rebels did it.

Is it so hard to simply demand a real investigation?

Spot on about the media coverage and political exploitation of this still-very-unclear situation, IMO.

[Feuer Frei!]

Why must it be Putin?


Because to some people it seems he is the saviour and bringer of good news in a crysis.

Detached from reality i'd say. Or read the news from crappy sources and miss-interpret what is reported.

Who ordered ceasefire?

Seems the Rebels (pro-russian, yes) did, considering they hold the ground where the Jet went down.
They also handed over the black boxes.

Oh Putin our great saviour, where art thou?

2+2=4.

They also announced a ceasefire within a 10 kilometre (six mile) radius around the crash site to allow international investigators to safely access the vast area where the Malaysia Airlines flight was downed ThursdaySOURCE (http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2014/07/21/ukrainian-rebels-hand-over-mh17-black-boxes-and-call-for-cease-fire-near-crash-site/)

Mind you, it took 2 days for the permission to be granted for investigators to gain access to crash site.

[Julhelm]

And the Russian secret service or military claims that an Ukrainian Su-25 had approached the Boeing up to 3 km distance and even climbed to get to its altitude.

(The Su-25 is a ground attack-specialised combat aircraft, but it can carry AAMs, too.)
SU-25 only has a service ceiling of about 7000m, while the Boeing was travelling faster at 10000m. So those statements smell of something.

[TarJak]

Why must it be Putin?
The question is open hence my punctuation. Putin may have had no influence or he may have told the rebels what to do.


I certainly don't see him as a saviour. Just someone with significant influence over the actions of the separatist movement. They want to be part of Russia and so will pamper to his desires.

[Feuer Frei!]

Political, economic and financial options would be presented if access hadn't been gained.

Russia's influence on the rebels is undeniable.



Yet
Although from a diplomatic point of view, direct responsibility to order the Rebels to comply and give access to the crash site would be Putin being looked upon 'favourably' by the world.


Obama: "What are they trying to hide"?

[Onkel Neal]

I don't see why anyone is uncertain or mystified over the cause and authors of this tragedy? Hey, even Russian people know what's up (http://www.cnn.com/2014/07/21/world/europe/ukraine-malaysia-moscow-embassy/index.html?hpt=hp_t1).

The tributes at the Dutch Embassy in Moscow include a hand-drawn picture of a plane broken in midair with the caption "children should not die," in a child's handwriting.

Another message reads: "We are afraid, we are ashamed, we are in mourning."
While the official Russian position is that Russia played no role and has no responsibility for the crash, what's striking in many of the notes is the use of the phrase "forgive us."

The messages give a sense that the people who have left them do feel that Russia has an element of responsibility in what is playing out in eastern Ukraine.
One note reads, in English, "Excuse us, please, if you can. Sorry! Russia, Moscow."

At least when the US shot down that Iranian airliner, they owned up to it.

[CCIP]

I don't see why anyone is uncertain or mystified over the cause and authors of this tragedy? Hey, even Russian people know what's up (http://www.cnn.com/2014/07/21/world/europe/ukraine-malaysia-moscow-embassy/index.html?hpt=hp_t1).



At least when the US shot down that Iranian airliner, they owned up to it.

Based on what evidence? The problem is that it's putting the cart before the horse - there hasn't been a proper investigation and that takes time. The Iran Air situation isn't the same thing - that missile was launched from a USN ship, and even there the investigation and admission that there was no reason to shoot at the airliner took a long time.

As for "knowing what's up", that is taking the language there severely out of context and is frankly propagandistic. The apologies in this case are a collective sense that humanity has failed there, and you should also keep in mind that for many, Russians and (at least eastern) Ukrainians are a collective identity. I would've used the same language - I've got a lot of friends and family in the Ukraine, with far from everyone agreeing on politics and what to do about the east, but to me this war is still one which is fought by "us" against "us". "We" do share a common identity, culture, and social connections and "we" feel for the human tragedy. This has no political implications and no implication of state responsibility.

The bottom line is that until there is an investigation, I don't think any of this is fair to say. And as I said elsewhere, more pointedly, if this disaster shows anything it's that the separatists are NOT under Moscow's operational control in any sense at all - the shootdown would not have happened if they were. Putin has nothing to gain from this. Russia has a lot to lose from this. I would be the last person on earth to defend Putin, but describing the situation in terms like "Russia/Putin shot it down" is as facetious as saying that Reagan and his crew launched airliners into the Twin Towers or that America gassed the Kurds. I mean hey, it was that government that helped arm the Taliban and their buddy Bin Laden to fight the Soviets, and Saddam to fight Iran. The identification of "Russia"/"Russians" as shooting down the airliner - even assuming that the missile was provided from Russia and launched by someone under operational control of the separatists - is bothersome, disturbing and propagandistic. To suggest that it was launched under Russia's operational control makes zero sense and I am yet to see any evidence to suggest this other than stuff like this, which amounts to mistranslations of condolences, twisted to suit a political cause. That cause, by the way, is creating a new bogeyman for Captain America to flex muscles at, because someone finally realized they've already lost the war on terror, a decade too late. And I may have no reason to sympathise with Putin, but I have even less sympathy for anyone trying to use a tragedy to provoke a Cold War II.

[Feuer Frei!]

SU-25 only has a service ceiling of about 7000m, while the Boeing was travelling faster at 10000m. So those statements smell of something.

7000? You read it after the edit i assume. Well, as per Russian MOD>>>> It was operating well above its ceiling of
23,000 feet. Even more interesting the Wiki page of the Su-25 was edited (by a Russian IP address) to update its specifications… (https://twitter.com/AndrijUKR/status/491246927502393344/photo/1)

One more thing to note:

the graphic used by the Russian MoD has another major flaw: it depicts (on the left) the Boeing 777 as a Boeing 707, and the Su-25 (on the right) with the shape of an EF-111 Raven (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Dynamics/Grumman_EF-111A_Raven), a famous, retired, U.S. electronic warfare plane!

http://theaviationist.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Su-25-graphic.png



Edited specs:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BtGK8ojIQAA7L5U.png:large


Good job, keep the propaganda rolling.

[CCIP]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-21/russia-says-has-photos-ukraine-deploying-buk-missiles-east-rader-proof-warplanes-mh1

Russia's MOD is also showing satellite imagery of what they say are Ukrainian SA-11 launchers that were within firing range of MH17 on July 14th, and were moved away by July 17th.

They've also positioned a set of 10 questions to Ukraine about the crash which, IMO, are mostly valid to ask (although some are obviously loaded) and Ukraine has yet to properly address:


1. The Ukrainian authorities immediately identified the militia as the perpetrators of the tragedy. What is the basis of such findings?

2. Could official Kiev to report all the details of their deployment [of SA-11s] in the war zone? Most importantly - why were these systems deployed there, as the militia possesses no planes?

3. What are the causes of inactivity by the Ukrainian authorities in forming an international commission? When will this committee begin working?

4. Should the Ukrainian military be treated equivalently to international experts when presenting information regarding air-to-air and ground-to-air weapons?

5. Will they pass objective data about the movements of Ukrainian Air Force aircraft on the day of the tragedy to an international commission?

6. Why did Ukrainian air traffic controllers allow deviation of the aircraft's route to the north side of the "anti-terrorist operation zone"?

7. Why was airspace over the combat zone not completely closed to civilian aircraft, especially since this area has gaps in primary radar coverage for navigation?

8. Could Kiev officials comment on reports in the net, ostensibly on behalf of the Spanish air traffic controllers working in Ukraine, which say that the downed Boeing was accompanied by two Ukrainian military aircraft?

9. Why has the Security Service of Ukraine been working on recordings between air traffic control and the downed Boeing, as well as radar data, without international representatives?

10. What could be learned from the previous similar disaster of a Russian Tu-154 in 2001 in the Black Sea? It is important to note that at that time the Ukrainian Armed Forces denied any involvement in the tragedy until irrefutable evidence showed otherwise.

[Jimbuna]

Hopefully an independant investigation on the whole sorry affair can come up with some definitive answers.

[Pisces]

...and the Su-25 (on the right) with the shape of an EF-111 Raven (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Dynamics/Grumman_EF-111A_Raven), a famous, retired, U.S. electronic warfare plane!You'd think they would at least be able to tell their own creations apart from their coldwar antagonist's. I pity them now.

[Jimbuna]

The victims remains have been moved to Kherkiv outside rebel held territory.

A train carrying the remains of victims of the Malaysian airliner which crashed in Ukraine has arrived in the city of Kharkiv, outside rebel territory.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28416973

[Oberon]

Sadly not all the remains... :nope:

I do have to chuckle a little bit though, I get the impression that Putin is regarded as something of a James Bond villain in America, a sort of new Bin Laden for the 21st century perhaps. :haha:

This was not deliberately engineered by Putin, that much is certain, he gains nothing from it, and while he might not be Blofeld, he is not a stupid person.
In my mind, this is how events played out.
The pro-Russians got a Buk launcher, either stolen from the Ukrainian army or delivered across the border from Russia, both scenarios are just as likely, and current intel leans it towards the latter.
Russia intends these launchers to be used by the pro-Russians to degrade the aerial advantage that the Ukrainian military has, however despite the Ukraine denying it has SAM launchers that far east, it will have SAM units in the east in order to defend against a potential Russian incursion, so I don't believe that particular line from Kiev for one minute.
Anyway, a Ukrainian Su-25 was operating near the area of MH-17 on a routine mission, nothing unusual about Frogfoots operating in Eastern Ukraine. The pro-Russian forces targeted the Frogfoot with the Buk launcher, but due to their poor training or just a fluke accident (not particularly likely with todays IFF technology) they launched a Surface to Air Missile at MH-17.
At first their jubilation indicates that they thought the Frogfoot had been downed, then it turns to horror as they realise they've just shot down a passenger airliner. A frantic cover-up begins, the Buk is kicked back across the border to Russia, the wreckage is scoured for evidence of missile damage and Russia finds itself in a very tough spot...which is why it is playing a bit of a dance, trying to pin the blame on Kiev when it knows that it's just as likely to be Donetsk.
Putin is in a spot of bother, really, in fact he finds himself a little bit like the PRC finds itself when North Korea is being an idiot. He has vouched for the pro-Russian forces, he has aided the pro-Russian forces and they have screwed up, big time, but he has cemented his position so that he cannot come out on international media and condemn the pro-Russian forces, instead he has to play the quiet game, making concessions here and there (such as in the recent vote in the UNSC which Russia backed) while trying to do damage control.
Now Skybird does have a point when he states that most of Putins comments are for internal use only, directed more at the Russian people than the people of the world. If there is one thing that Putin has been doing, it's focusing on domestic matters...he's not really had a choice with the whole unrest there has been in places. The last thing he really wants though is a new Cold War, Russia has had good trade with the west, he's made a lot of rubles off it, and whilst he can and will transfer this trade to China, there is going to be a bit of a hit while the process takes place.
Will Europe end up the worse for this new Cold War? Perhaps...I certainly expect to see a greater emphasis on internal trade and consolidation of the EU power in the future if Russia is going to become the de jure European nemesis of the 21st century. Quite honestly Europe has three choices, shackle itself to America (which I don't think either America or Europe wants), shackle itself to Russia (I think Eastern Europe would rather be a nuclear wasteland than that) or consolidate its power and finally realise that alone the GDP and military power of Germany is nothing compared to Russia, but with all the other states of the EU put together, it's more than a match for Moscow.

The tricky part is getting a bunch of European nations to actually agree on something...I can't really recall a single time in history that this has happened... :oops:

[Betonov]

Let me add something Oberon.

How the rebels handled the situation showed they have a very de-centralised command. The first few days they looked like headless chickens running around, not knowing should they allow people in, what to do with bodies, what to do with black boxes...

Slowly as days went, they allowed investigators in, handed over the black boxes, sent the train with bodies towards Holland. As if less decisions were done by field commanders and more by some senior staff.

Maybe Putin wasn't behind the recent progress, but only the rebels banged their heads together and started making coherent reasonable decisions.

[Jimbuna]

Let me add something Oberon.

How the rebels handled the situation showed they have a very de-centralised command. The first few days they looked like headless chickens running around, not knowing should they allow people in, what to do with bodies, what to do with black boxes...

Slowly as days went, they allowed investigators in, handed over the black boxes, sent the train with bodies towards Holland. As if less decisions were done by field commanders and more by some senior staff.

Maybe Putin wasn't behind the recent progress, but only the rebels banged their heads together and started making coherent reasonable decisions.

My theory is that Putin eventually came to the realisation that the world was eventually starting to turn against him so he pulled a few strings of those in the rebel camp who do as he bids.

[CCIP]

Let me add something Oberon.

How the rebels handled the situation showed they have a very de-centralised command. The first few days they looked like headless chickens running around, not knowing should they allow people in, what to do with bodies, what to do with black boxes...

Slowly as days went, they allowed investigators in, handed over the black boxes, sent the train with bodies towards Holland. As if less decisions were done by field commanders and more by some senior staff.

Maybe Putin wasn't behind the recent progress, but only the rebels banged their heads together and started making coherent reasonable decisions.

To add something to that though, remember that a lot of the same also applies to the other side - the official Ukraine and their military are also right now pretty decentralized and poorly coordinated, and you see that in their reaction here as well. Keep in mind, the country is in a very poor state, and a lot of the new leadership are people who were just anti-government activists a few months earlier and not all of them are highly qualified for leadership. The Ukrainian army is in a bad state - units are so chronically understrength that conscription is being re-introduced, and defection, desertion and just general lack of motivation is rife, especially for soldiers who are themselves from the East. A lot of the fighting is being done by the so-called National Guard, volunteer units who are way more motivated but also themselves operate like nationalist militias that are equipped by the government. They've shown lack of coordination throughout this conflict - there's many situations where some National Guard battallions observed government-ordered ceasefires while others advanced; there's a huge variation in tactics and approaches among them. Many have their own air support. I really don't have a lot of confidence in calling them a coordinated modern military. A lot of the leadership of these units are nationalists, many with experience fighting in Chechnya against Russians, and what they would've learned there is basically a many-warlords approach to fighting a civil war (in fact, there's a bit of a rematch going on right now in eastern Ukraine, between Ukrainian nationalists who fought with separatist warlords against Russian forces in Chechnya and pro-Moscow warlords who run Chechnya now and have sent volunteers and mercenaries, along with weapons, to the Donetsk and Lugansk militias). Those are, in a sense, their best-qualified people. Meanwhile, a lot of the old, highly-trained, centralized military leadership in the Ukraine is gone - during the "Orange" years, there was a virtual purge of the "Old Guard", experienced officers who started out in the USSR's Red Army. It's not surprising that Yuschenko's government would've been suspicious of having their military run by generals who originally swore an oath to the Soviet government and Moscow, and they were largely removed - without qualified replacements. That did a lot of damage to the Ukrainian military's ability to manage itself. And lastly, all the economic troubles in the Ukraine really have not done good things to the quality of their military and to morale.

Bottom line is that both sides of the conflict there are pretty decentralized and reacting poorly right now. I would not trust either side with complex weapons systems or difficult investigations, to be honest. And that's what makes this disaster and the investigation so messy.

[kraznyi_oktjabr]

Oberon, Although I think you theory is in general correct, there is a little hole in it. Atleast all media sources I have encountered so far initial (and removed) separatist claim was that they had shot down Ukraininan transport aircraft. I'm not sure if An-26 was specifically mentioned or not (one was shot down earlier).

Also Yle.fi (Finland's national broadcaster) reports that separatist soldier has given Corriere della Sera and interview where he admitted that they shot MH17 down. I check if I find article in English.

EDIT: Link to Corriere della Sera's english article below.

http://www.corriere.it/english/14_luglio_22/how-malaysian-plane-was-shot-down-51e99c60-118f-11e4-affb-3320a03d21e8.shtml

[CCIP]

Meanwhile, Ukrainian news reporting two Su-25s shot down in the past day, both reportedly just north of the MH17 site. The rebels have reported that they were downed by shoulder-launched missiles, Kiev authorities suspect other possibilities.

Worth noting that the shootdown is reported in reference to a village just 25km from the MH 17 site, despite both sides declaring a 40km radius around it a ceasefire zone.

[CCIP]

Meanwhile, more pictures and reports are emerging of an SA-11 vehicle in the town of Torez, 12km south of the crash site, on the day of the shootdown. Torez is under rebel control.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/22/ukraine-sightings-missile-launcher-mh17

Another picture:
http://i.imgur.com/ffWaEnl.jpg

http://i.imgur.com/yJhFtXm.jpg

And here is a site tracking/mapping pictures of the possible Buk spotted in Torez and Snizhne, both near the shootdown zone: http://politota.d3.ru/comments/578166/

And here in English, a user has made an attempt to put together pictures to track the actual site of the launch, including an alleged picture of a smoke column left by the SAM launch: http://ukraineatwar.blogspot.ca/2014/07/launch-location-detected-of-missile.html

http://i.imgur.com/FOZrIFh.jpg

...all of which puts the alleged launch site right here: https://goo.gl/maps/hnkX3

Certainly a plausible version.

[Admiral Halsey]

Don't know if this has been posted yet but here's basically Russia's questions and version of events. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BrhEzecCdTI&feature=youtu.be It's in both English and Russia.

[Jimbuna]

Meanwhile, more pictures and reports are emerging of an SA-11 vehicle in the town of Torez, 12km south of the crash site, on the day of the shootdown. Torez is under rebel control.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/22/ukraine-sightings-missile-launcher-mh17

Another picture:
http://i.imgur.com/ffWaEnl.jpg

http://i.imgur.com/yJhFtXm.jpg

And here is a site tracking/mapping pictures of the possible Buk spotted in Torez and Snizhne, both near the shootdown zone: http://politota.d3.ru/comments/578166/

And here in English, a user has made an attempt to put together pictures to track the actual site of the launch, including an alleged picture of a smoke column left by the SAM launch: http://ukraineatwar.blogspot.ca/2014/07/launch-location-detected-of-missile.html

http://i.imgur.com/FOZrIFh.jpg

...all of which puts the alleged launch site right here: https://goo.gl/maps/hnkX3

Certainly a plausible version.

Well that certainly has grabbed my attention and got me thinking and considering the possibilities.

[Kptlt. Neuerburg]

There are some probabilities that should be considered here in regards to the BuK. First off is that with the possibility that the Buk in question was captured by the Pro-Russian separatists then the IFF system would of had of either been removed or disabled in order to shoot down Ukrainian aircraft, or the other possibility that they got it from the Russians then the IFF system shouldn't matter much since the IFF could of been removed before hand or with it being a Russian unit not mattered at all.
Second is that civilian airliners, to the best of my knowledge do not have an IFF transmitter and/or transponder, so the operator could of incorrectly identified the Boeing 777 as an An-26. Although at this point the facts surrounding the how and why are about as clear as thick fog.

[CCIP]

Torez is now reported to be under heavy artillery and rocket fire from Ukrainian government forces. Worth noting that it is only about 13km from the crash site, and it's happening despite the mutually-declared 40km ceasefire zone around it to allow investigators to work. It seems that Kiev wants to have that site under their control now.

[Jimbuna]

Russia will cooperate with the investigation into the downing of a Malaysian airliner a week ago and is satisfied that the Netherlands, rather than Ukraine, is leading the effort, the country's ambassador to Malaysia said on Thursday.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10984858/MH17-plane-crash-latest-news-live.html

[TarJak]

http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2014-07-25/australian-experts-visit-mh17-crash-site-as-dutch-take-charge/5622860

Interesting"find".

[TarJak]

http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2014-07-28/mh17-afp-will-attempt-to-access-crash-site-today/5629456

International investigation team is having trouble getting into the crash zone due to fighting in the area. I doubt the rebels are keen on letting anyone near it that might find evidence of their involvement.

[Dmitry Markov]

Why rebels? It's Kiev's forces that are advancing - so it might be Kiev's "authorities" want to get there first before something unpleasant to them wasn't found:hmmm:

[Dmitry Markov]

Just you wait couple of days for Nazi-guards to come to the site on the Grad salvo distance. There would be couple of Grad or Smerch salvos to the crash site followed by the words that either it did Russia or it was inevitable as there were rebels holding that place trying to hide the truth. And after a couple of salvos from those systems nobody would never find anything.

[kranz]

Why rebels? It's Kiev's forces that are advancing - so it might be Kiev's "authorities" want to get there first before something unpleasant to them wasn't found:hmmm:
tell me, are you:
a)skybird's second account?
b)a brainwashed russian?
c)a troll?

[Jimbuna]

The downing of the Malaysia Airlines jet in Ukraine may be a "war crime", the UN's human rights chief says.

A bit of an understatement :hmmm:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28520813

[TarJak]

Why rebels? It's Kiev's forces that are advancing - so it might be Kiev's "authorities" want to get there first before something unpleasant to them wasn't found:hmmm:

Could be either. I frankly don't care.

[Skybird]

A crime as well inevitably include the understanding that the accused side wanted to commit the act of crime against the target of the crime intentionally, and knowingly.

I heavily doubt that the rebels or the Russians intentionally wanted to shoot down a foreign airliner full of foreign civilians. They know the bad looks they would get from the world in advance.

If it were an intentional shooting at a foirtewign civilian airliner and the shooter knew it, than in fact Kiev would have had the best chances to assume they could get somehting positive form thzat - bvy blamin g it on the rebels. This recipe would not have worked so well if the rebels or Russians did it and wanted to accuse Kiev, considering the state of things with Russia and the global opinion.

I doubt that it is by chance that the UN now joins the rethorics blame game. I also doubt that right at this time that court fionds its verdict and announces it that Russia shozuld pay 50 billion in compensations to former Yukos owners. The timing and the effect of that (if Russia would obey that ruling :D) too obviously aims at supporting the new attempt to bring Russia under more fiscal pressure.

Kiev's army apparently currently tries to storm all cities around the crash site to bring the site under its control that way.

[TarJak]

http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-01/middleton-mh17-comes-second-as-kiev-presses-its-advantage/5641204

Nice commentary on the unintended effects of getting Moscow to reduce support for the separatists in an attempt to get investigation of the air disaster underway.

[Bilge_Rat]

hmm, according to the UN, 730 000 refugees from East Ukraine have crossed over into Russia:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-conflict-730-000-have-entered-russia-to-escape-fighting-1.2727574

730 000 represents 11% of the population of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblast.

Apparently more refugees are seeking refuge in Russia then in Western Ukraine.

Now, here is what I don't get. According to the western media, USA, EU, etc., all the rebels in East Ukraine are Russians or on the Russian payroll and the local population is just waiting to be liberated by the Ukrainian military.

If that is true, why are more/most civilians seeking refuge in Russia? :hmmm:

[Admiral Halsey]

I've heard rumors that those shrapnel holes were really bullet holes. Anyone know anything about that?

[Stealhead]

If that is true, why are more/most civilians seeking refuge in Russia? :hmmm:

That makes perfect sense to me that 11% is more than likely the majority of the ethnicly Russian population of those regions so naturally they are most likely to wish to head to Russia. That number may not even be the majority of ethnic Russians but a portion of them. According to Wikipedia 17% of Ukranian citizens are ethnic Russians.

[Oberon]

If that is true, why are more/most civilians seeking refuge in Russia? :hmmm:

At a guess I'd say that it was because they're living in a war zone, therefore you go to the nearest place that isn't a war zone. If you go west then you have to go through an active conflict area to get to safety but if you go east then you cross into friendly Russian territory and wait until the war is over, one way or another. Most likely, since Russias hands are tied in aiding the pro-Russian forces, it will offer citizenship to all those who have fled eastern Ukraine.

[Dread Knot]

I've heard rumors that those shrapnel holes were really bullet holes. Anyone know anything about that?


Not likely. First, they're too small. A 30mm rifled round from an SU-25 as suggested the culprit by some, leaves a much bigger hole. The penetrators in AAA missile warheads, however, are most often small steel ball-bearing style projectiles. They're cheap and easy to manufacture out of very hard metals and they fly straight and true over a short distance regardless of orientation, and produce the most effective shrapnel ball for the target to fly through. Those holes in the Malaysian Air jet are far more consistent with AAA shrapnel than with 30mm rifled projectiles.

Second, when a 30mm slug strikes an airplane from behind and strikes longitudinal surfaces like wings and fuselage, it tends to leave a long narrow holes or tears. In order for rifled projectiles to make a circular hole, it has to enter or leave roughly perpendicularly to the surface, which would happen only if the aircraft were approaching at a 90 degree angle from the side. That might have been common in the biplane era, but that's not how modern fighter planes work.

[CCIP]

hmm, according to the UN, 730 000 refugees from East Ukraine have crossed over into Russia:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-conflict-730-000-have-entered-russia-to-escape-fighting-1.2727574

730 000 represents 11% of the population of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblast.

Apparently more refugees are seeking refuge in Russia then in Western Ukraine.

Now, here is what I don't get. According to the western media, USA, EU, etc., all the rebels in East Ukraine are Russians or on the Russian payroll and the local population is just waiting to be liberated by the Ukrainian military.

If that is true, why are more/most civilians seeking refuge in Russia? :hmmm:

One thing you want to keep in mind here is the economic angle as well. The Donbass region (Donetsk & surroundings) has always arguably been more closely linked to Russia economically than Western Ukraine. Russia has simply been the main customer of their (relatively developed) heavy industry. This certainly leads to other links. For many people living there, Russia is a "land of opportunity" as well - Russia's heavy industry, from the earliest beginnings of industrialization, has always tapped this region for its skilled labour. And to this day, many see better pay and more opportunities in Russia - and Russia tries to attract them because these Ukrainian workers are often far more skilled and ask for less pay than Russian ones. This is especially a bonus in a place like Russia, where a lot of the wealth comes from natural resources in places with pretty extreme conditions - not everyone is willing to go mining above the Arctic circle, but these Donbass miners and workers have historically proven much less picky. So, these are often people who are very welcome in Russia. There are many with family already in Russia, who moved or indeed lived throughout Russia all their life. Yet they're often not welcome in Western Ukraine, for cultural reasons, which is substantially more impoverished and has lower standards of living than the country's east anyway. And Kiev, like many capital cities, is a tough and competitive job market. So, where else to go? Refugees generally don't run to regions that they know are poorer and where they're always at a disadvantage against locals.

And then politically, I think many of these people have first-hand evidence that Ukraine is a failed state and Russia is not. Nationalist scares aside, they just have simple, objective reasons for having more confidence in the Russian state (and its ability to take care of them) than the Ukrainian one.

Not much of a conspiracy, just simple materialist logic.

[Dmitry Markov]

And then another question - whom would you call a Russian or a Ukrainian - taking into account that there are a lot of people beeing half or quarter Ukrainian or Russian. When there is no any stamp in a passport you'll never tell one from another. People in that area speak a dialect which consists of both Ukrainian and Russian words. And there are a lot of families having relatives across the whole former USSR.

I don't know if it was covered in Western media - but recently even about 400 soldiers of Ukrainian army asked for a safe passage through our territory 'cause they were caught in a crossfire by rebels. Our authorities AGREED and gave them a safe bypass to an area not controlled by rebels and even gave them bathing facilities and feed them (Of course they were without arms). And it was huge discussion on our radio stations and in the internet on whether we should grant them bypass or maybe internate them untill the end of a conflict. Most of people were of course blaiming authorities in betreating rebels and said that these Ukrainian soldiers should have been taken as POWs but some others pointed that granting them passage would show Ukrainians that we are really not a side of this conflict and we see their conflict as mutual trouble for both sides.

[Stealhead]

I'd say technically you are what ever the nation in which you hold citizenship is. In other words a Canadian citizen is a Canadian, Russian citizen is a Russian. Of course every nation has a dominate culture as well and one can be a citizen but not necessarily be a part of the majority(controlling power/group). Ethnicity is another can of worms at the end of the day there are no nations on earth in which every single citizen is ethnically the same.

[Bilge_Rat]

One thing you want to keep in mind here is the economic angle as well. The Donbass region (Donetsk & surroundings) has always arguably been more closely linked to Russia economically than Western Ukraine. Russia has simply been the main customer of their (relatively developed) heavy industry. This certainly leads to other links. For many people living there, Russia is a "land of opportunity" as well - Russia's heavy industry, from the earliest beginnings of industrialization, has always tapped this region for its skilled labour. And to this day, many see better pay and more opportunities in Russia - and Russia tries to attract them because these Ukrainian workers are often far more skilled and ask for less pay than Russian ones. This is especially a bonus in a place like Russia, where a lot of the wealth comes from natural resources in places with pretty extreme conditions - not everyone is willing to go mining above the Arctic circle, but these Donbass miners and workers have historically proven much less picky. So, these are often people who are very welcome in Russia. There are many with family already in Russia, who moved or indeed lived throughout Russia all their life. Yet they're often not welcome in Western Ukraine, for cultural reasons, which is substantially more impoverished and has lower standards of living than the country's east anyway. And Kiev, like many capital cities, is a tough and competitive job market. So, where else to go? Refugees generally don't run to regions that they know are poorer and where they're always at a disadvantage against locals.

And then politically, I think many of these people have first-hand evidence that Ukraine is a failed state and Russia is not. Nationalist scares aside, they just have simple, objective reasons for having more confidence in the Russian state (and its ability to take care of them) than the Ukrainian one.

Not much of a conspiracy, just simple materialist logic.

All good points, thanks. It is frustrating trying to figure out what is really going on. There is so much propaganda on both sides to wade through and very few independent observers on the gound.

[TarJak]

Australia holds a national day of mourning for the victims of MH17: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-07/australia-holds-national-day-of-mourning-for-mh17-victims/5653706

[CCIP]

I'd say technically you are what ever the nation in which you hold citizenship is. In other words a Canadian citizen is a Canadian, Russian citizen is a Russian. Of course every nation has a dominate culture as well and one can be a citizen but not necessarily be a part of the majority(controlling power/group). Ethnicity is another can of worms at the end of the day there are no nations on earth in which every single citizen is ethnically the same.

Of course it's a can of worms, but this is a very Western way of looking at nationality, and here is something you need to realize:

The very concept of "nationality", legally and constitutionally, means something totally different in former Soviet space than it does in the West. It dates back to a Soviet-era response to Imperial-era problems, and basically it boils down to a section in the passport that says "nationality" - and by the way, that was retained in most former Soviet republics and is still there today. Nationality is ethnic-based identity that one gets partially by choice, inheriting it from one (but not both) of their parents. It is not the same as citizenship, at all. For many people in Russia, that section of their passport might say "Russian", but it might also say "Tatar", "Chuvash", "Jew", "Ukrainian", "Belarus", "Chechen", etc. etc. No sane people in post-Soviet space (I don't count ultra-nationalists as that) would even bat an eyelid at someone who is identified as being Tatar or Chuvash or Jewish in their Russian passport, that's just a normal thing. Same for Ukrainian. Same for someone who identifies as Russian living in the Ukraine. That is how things always were. The nuance is totally lost also, because while in English we say "Russian", in Russian there are actually two completely different words: "Russkiy" indicating someone of Russian nationality, and "Rossiyanin" indicating someone of Russian citizenship. Those two terms are not in any way equivalent, and there is no contradiction in that.

Nationality (or "nationality", because it means something totally different there than it does for Western commentators) is a big part of this whole issue and debate that gets totally lost here.

[CCIP]

Meanwhile, in response to Western sanctions, Russia has banned Western food imports, and blocked flights by Ukrainian airlines from transiting Russian airspace (though this is less related to MH17 and more related to the standoff over flights to Crimea - Ukraine and EU regulators forced a lease on Boeing aircraft operated by the Russian state airline on flights to Crimea to be suspended recently). They are now threatening to block Russian airspace to EU and US carriers as a next step.

[Oberon]

Blocking airspace could certainly be tricky, more so than the food products. I mean, how is Russias agricultural output these days? I presume it has improved since the days of the USSR? :hmmm:

[Dread Knot]

Blocking airspace could certainly be tricky, more so than the food products. I mean, how is Russias agricultural output these days? I presume it has improved since the days of the USSR? :hmmm:


And has it improved enough to compensate for the loss of the Baltics, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine?

[Oberon]

And has it improved enough to compensate for the loss of the Baltics, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine?

That's what I'm pondering, I mean back in the day the Ukraine was supposedly the bread-basket of the Soviet Union, and even then grain shipments were still required from the US IIRC. Of course, this was under collectivization, so one would hope that things have improved since then but have they improved enough? :hmmm:

It does seem a rather odd thing to block, airspace yes, oil and gas exports, yes (although unless Putin shifted it quick to the PRC it would backfire on him), heck I'd even understand the likes of Syria suddenly gaining some nice new Russian made drones or something, but food...I must be missing something in the bigger picture, it's not like Putin to do something unless there's a reason for it that will either benefit Russia in the long term or damage Russias enemies more than Russia. :hmmm:

[Skybird]

In German:

http://www.anderweltonline.com/wissenschaft-und-technik/luftfahrt-2014/schockierende-analyse-zum-abschuss-der-malaysian-mh-017/

This is the analysis of a retired German Lufthansa flight captain who reports his conclusions on the so far publicly available photos of the wreckage pieces. Or better the once available pics that meanwhile were removed or disappeared mysteriously.

He points out that planes at the cockpit are build by thicker aluminium plates to harden them against the possibility of birdstrike, than at other parts of the plane.

He then points out that on those pics that show the skin around the cockpit, round both entry and exit holes are to be seen on parts of both cockpit sides. This m,eans: the cockpit has been fired on from two sides.

Such holes are not to be seen on pics from other parts of the aircraft.

This leads to the assumption that the cockpit was heavily fired on by armour breaking ammunition, judging by the size of the holes possibly in the 30mm range.

He then points out that there are reports from Russian radar surveillance that an Ukrainian SU-25 was in the very close vicinity of the airplane. Aloso, aSpansih radar controller gave a report on two Ukrainian jets quickly approaching the flight. He shows that the usual operation altitude of the SU-27 is around 7000m (which is being given as an argument that the SU25 could not have reached the Malaysian airliner flying ,much higher), but the maximum possible flight altitude for the SU-25 in easier configuration 14600 meters.

Also: the SU-25 is armed with a double cannon calibre 30mm, with 250 rounds. The plane is a tank eater and CAS specialist, something like the American A-10.

He finally hints at the fact that visually the MH17 airplane and the Russian presidential machine have quite similiar looking painting schemes, sharing some same colours as well - in other words, to the unknowing eye the planes could be mistaken for each other. Putin, at the time of the shot-down, was in midair, 200-300 km away - seen with the eyes of pilots, especially pilots of military aircraft, that is no big difference at all.

Add to this all the general hostile situation, the provoking visit of Putin on the Crimean, and the general hate of the Kiew government (Remember Timoshenko once wishing she could shoot Putin in the head?) for Putin.

The author also points out that the Americans have said that there possibly happened a target misidentification. They never said who mistook what for what, however.

This all together allows to formulate a theory on this possible scenario: the Ukrainian government decided to shoot down the plane of Putin in order to kill him. They used at least one SU-25 to be able afterwards to try to argue that the SU-25 could not have reached the airliner. Possibly, there was also an attack by a second flight from the other side, possibly simultaneously. The pilots found the airliner instead of Putins plane, got close to get a visual ID, and mistook the Malaysian plane for the Russian presidential plane. He then opened fire with his cannon at the cockpit to bring down the plane without treacherous missile parts telling the story, the flight deck crew was instantly killed and the plane was destroyed by explosive decompression. The ammunition of the SU-25 is armour-.breaking and explosive as well, leading to a huge amount of explosions in the cockpit area. This would explain the dramatic level of destruction at the cockpit that could be concluded on by pics of wreckage parts from the cockpit. The explosive decompression of the entire airframe at high speed and high altitude would explain why the wreckage is scattered over such a huge area.

Russian media for some time reported that there was an attack being carried out against Putin. I think these reports have been silenced fast, or not?! Which is logical, if Putin does not want to be forced under the eyes of his people to jump into an invasive war against the Ukraine. If Russia would admit their president was tried by another country to be assassinated, they would not have much other choice then to go to open war.

If it happened like this, we most certainly will never be told.

The German author mentiones that the Spanish radar controller who saw two Ukrainian aircraft hurrying towards MH17 and gave a report on that, has completely disappeared and could not be found, reached or talked to. He also finds it suspicious, that Google'S picture pool of images showing wreckage of the plane, seems to have seen a massive clean-up - many of the pics he used for his analysis are no longer available on the internet.

I withhold an own opinion on all this, since the author is an unknown variable to me, only that he indeed was flying airliners for Lufthansa is certain for me. I searched for him in a different context, when checking a book on the financial crisis he wrote (after retirement he turned for economic history). I found some irritating remarks by him that were somewhat glossing over Islam and painting it as the peacefull, tolerable, unable-to-do-harm relgion that we all know it never was or is. This irritation led me to do some more research on the man, and I finally found this text by him on MA17 that I have linked.

P.S. Edit: I said the airframe was not showing shots, just the cockpit was heavily peppered, but tzher eis one exscpetion, one of the wings shows what the author rates as a grazing shot.

I wonder why everybody is still talking about a missile hit from the ground when seeing those obvious bullet holes. Missiles do not split in midair into several projectiles that then home for the target like flying shrapnels and catch it in a pince-manouver from two opposing directions.

I earlier siad the most likely scneario was a separatist misidnetioficaqiton opf taregts and then shhoting the plane down with a SAM. I change my view due to the photos with the entry and exost holes that I see hard to be explained by wreckage pieces. The most likely scneario seems to be the theory above: an Ukrainian target misidentification during the attempt to kill Putin, and then shooting down the plane with cannons from two directions with at least two attacking aircraft. - Blame the Ukrainians, I say. They played foul over the sniper incidents on the Maidan as well.

Like over Georgia, Russia gets the blame here as well. And like over Georgia, unjustified.

Oh, and just a formality. If the scenario described is true, I could not criticise Russia if it decides to engage in full invasion against the Ukraine. Every state able to react militarily would react with war if another state tries assassinating its presidents.

[kraznyi_oktjabr]

That was my thoughts as well about food. All it will do is increase prices within Russia, how is that helping their residents.

It may hit a few companies, but for the west, it may actually lower prices, as more is available.It may lower prices but I don't think there is much reason for celebration - atleast in Finland. Finnish companies' food products exports to Russia total about €400 million per year - dairy products, meat, vegetables... Valio Oy (dairy products) announced plans to cut employees from three plants and one logistics center. It will be interesting to hear which companies are next and how many will lose their jobs as result of this.

In grand EU wide scale consequences may not be large but they are distributed evenly.

[Skybird]

In an addendum, the author hints at another mysterious fact.

In publications basing on Janes, the maximum altitude of the SU-25 often was listed with around 10670 m - in 1984. Since then, the plane and its engines were repeatedly improved. Wikipedia, the German as well as the English site, listed the altitude at "around 10000 meters" until early July 2014.

Then over night, early July 2014, that entry was changed and now shows "7000m" only.

[TarJak]

Speculation. :roll: All we KNOW is that the plane was shot down by something. We don't know what yet. Regardless of the findings of any investigations there will always brew speculation about cover ups and conspiracies. I don't see how that helps either the victims our their families.

[Skybird]

The man has some very good points, and the technical specifications, the photographies (even if now being cleaned by secret services most likely), and the witness reports by that Spanish flight controller cannot be denied or assumed to never have existed. The author forms it all into a very reasonable theory, not into some fantasy-stretching conspiracy story about aliens from Mars. That all together is a bit more than just "speculation". Its a well thought-out and well-founded theory basing on some undeniable facts, and so deserves more careful examination and research than just wiping the unwanted possibility off the table by insisting: "Speculation. Period."

But I am aware of course that this scenario would not be met with cheers and welcomes by many people in the West. It would paint the wrong guys as the bad guys here. It should not be Kiew that is responsible, because the good guys in Kiew should be brought into EU and NATO if Washington has its will, and so they must be the guys in white and shiny armour. The blame must be put on the separatists and on Russia. That is a political demand ordered by Brussel and Washington, and whether reality corresponds with it or not does not interest our glorious leaders.

[TarJak]

I've not a care which side did the deed. I'm interested in the facts only and not idle speculation or conspiracy theories.

[Dread Knot]

I've not a care which side did the deed. I'm interested in the facts only and not idle speculation or conspiracy theories.

Agreed. Especially the crude attempts on some people's part to make this tragedy prove some other crack pot conspiracy theory.

http://i1233.photobucket.com/albums/ff387/AJM8125/getbent.jpg

[Skybird]

Again, show where it is "conspiration theory".

It is, by all what I can say, a reasonable theory indeed, thought out well and covering all known - and now "once known" facts and released materials. He is able to explain it all reasonably and with an easy, simple, elegant theory - and without needing to construct absurd conspiracies and fantasy-enriched nonsense. The scenario sounds perfectly realistic, and it is such that it explains all known pieces of info, in a simple, reasonable and elegant way.

That is much more than you two can show up with: rhetorics meant to prevent a scenario being brought to people's attention and to public discussion that you would not welcome to be true.

If the same theory would end in: it were the Russians, there would be postings like "I told you so, damn those Russians" by now. ;)

I do not claim the theory by the man is true. I say it is reasonable enough a theory, and sufficiently thought out, to justify giving it serious examination and consideration. And certainly more credit than just claiming "it is conspiracy theory, the man should wear a tin foil hat".

[TarJak]

I don't think I claimed that it was a conspiracy. Only that it was still speculation. Did the author examine the wreckage first hand?

If not then he's a speculator basing his theory on photos. Unless he is a credible aircraft crash investigator with access to original evidence, he's a speculator no matter how well thought out the theory.

[Admiral Halsey]

I remember seeing a video of an interview with one of the first experts who got to the crash site saying he thinks it was shot down and says basically the same thing regarding the cockpit holes.

[Skybird]

deleted

[Skybird]

I remember seeing a video of an interview with one of the first experts who got to the crash site saying he thinks it was shot down and says basically the same thing regarding the cockpit holes.
You mean this guy?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=76PG9RQStFU#t=470

At minute 6:00 he says: "There have been two or three pieces of fuselage that have really been pock-marked, it looks like machine gun fire - very very strong machine gun fire. (...) We also have been asked for example have we seen any samples of missile. No, we haven't, that's the answer. And even if it was there - we don't have those trained eyes to pick that up. But now we have those experts here who would be able to."

-----

I apologize that I did not note it earlier, but the full text I mentioned is available in English translation as well. It is even linked to in the German text, at the very top. Completely my own fault, sorry. I simply did not see it.

Here it is in English:

http://www.anderweltonline.com/wissenschaft-und-technik/luftfahrt-2014/shocking-analysis-of-the-shooting-down-of-malaysian-mh17/

And do like the guy says, download that picture in highres, it is quite revelaing even for laymen, I would say: clearly both sides of the cockpit were being shot at from two direcitons, the plate has both entry and exit holes (which means it was penetrated from both sides):

http://www.anderweltonline.com/fileadmin/user_upload/PDF/Cockpit-MH017.pdf


I recommend to click on the little picture to the right. You can download this photo as a PDF in good resolution. This is necessary, because that will allow you understand what I am describing here. The facts speak clear and loud and are beyond the realm of speculation: The cockpit shows traces of shelling! You can see the entry and exit holes. The edge of a portion of the holes is bent inwards. These are the smaller holes, round and clean, showing the entry points most likeley that of a 30 millimeter caliber projectile. The edge of the other, the larger and slightly frayed exit holes showing shreds of metal pointing produced by the same caliber projectiles. Moreover, it is evident that at these exit holes of the outer layer of the double aluminum reinforced structure are shredded or bent – outwardly! Furthermore, minor cuts can be seen, all bent outward, which indicate that shrapnel had forcefull exited through the outer skin from the inside of the cockpit. The open rivets are are also bent outward.


In sifting through the available images one thing stands out: All wreckage of the sections behind the cockpit are largely intact, except for the fact that only fragments of the aircraft remained . Only the cockpit part shows these peculiar marks of destruction. This leaves the examiner with an important clue. This aircraft was not hit by a missile in the central portion. The destruction is limited to the cockpit area. Now you have to factor in that this part is constructed of specially reinforced material. This is on account of the nose of any aircraft having to withstand the impact of a large bird at high speeds. You can see in the photo, that in this area significantly stronger aluminum alloys were being installed than in the remainder of the outer skin of the fuselage. One remembers the crash of Pan Am over Lockerbie. It was a large segment of the cockpit that due to the special architecture survived the crash in one piece. In the case of flight MH 017 it becomes abundantly clear that there also an explosion took place inside the aircraft.

[August]

What we do know is that the wreckage was under the control of the Russians for what, a week? Plenty of time to manufacture or erase all kinds of evidence.

[Skybird]

Does not explain why photographs disappeared and got cleaned off the web, and why that Spanish air controller cannot be found and talked to anymore. Also, the experts finally reaching the wreckage complained about bodies removed - but so far nobody claimed to have found indications that pieces of wreckage have been manipulated or "forged".

That is a theory of your own, August, or better: an implied claim. I think the author's theory is much better, because it is more consistent.

[August]

That is a theory of your own, August, or better: an implied claim.

It's not a theory or a claim to note that the wreckage was under the unobserved or supervised control of the ones who not only stand to benefit by your authors theory but have the technical means to manufacture evidence.

[Oberon]

The fact is, this is going to be a bit like Malaysias other aircraft incident in that we're not going to find out definite answers for either a long time or perhaps ever at all, so both sides of the divide are going to draw their own conclusions based on their own political and ideological leanings.

[MH]

The photograph looks more like the plane had been hit by shrapnel possibly from the warhead not 30mm cannon.

[Skybird]

The photograph looks more like the plane had been hit by shrapnel possibly from the warhead not 30mm cannon.
Yes shrapnels - that passes from inside the cockpit to the outisde. The tiny round holes are not shrapnels, but from tiny round objects that penetrated from the outside into the inside.

The text explains it, why do you treat it as if it were not explained? and the Canadian expert in the video who was at the scene, confirms it.

[CCIP]

Honestly I regard the "kill Putin" and Su-25 theory as nothing but wide-eyed conspiracy at this point, started and promoted largely by RT who in my eyes have a credibility level roughly on par with Fox News. As much as there's some interesting conjecture there, there is simply not enough evidence to say anything either way. It's based on very indirect evidence at best right now.

As a side note to that, if there was a Ukrainian conspiracy to assassinate Putin, whoever planned it had to be very extremist and very stupid. As counter-intuitive as it might sound, that would be one of the best things that could happen to the Donbass insurgency, and Putin is arguably the one person who is holding back the far less restrained nationalist forces in the Russian regime and military structure from getting more directly involved. It is in the interest of everyone from Poroshenko on down to deal with Putin as opposed to anybody else in the Russian regime, and contrary to the popular belief, Putin does not embody that regime at all. It would not collapse without him, and it would certainly not be less of a danger to Ukraine without him. He's a key figure/figurehead, but he is not an absolutist autocrat, and in many ways his success hangs not on exercising a lot of political/miltiary power but his ability to restrain and limit others' exercises of theirs. Removing Putin would be the stupidest thing anybody could do, if their goal is to stabilize Ukraine and reinstate some semblance of a working independent government there.

[MH]

Yes shrapnels - that passes from inside the cockpit to the outisde. The tiny round holes are not shrapnels, but from tiny round objects that penetrated from the outside into the inside.

The text explains it, why do you treat it as if it were not explained? and the Canadian expert in the video who was at the scene, confirms it.

I dont' know...not expert , but the small holes look like entries ,might be frag warhead.
Most holes look like entries , there are places where the top layer of sheet metal pills outward and second layer shows entry.
Quite possible depending on the angle.
There could be also some ricocheting and aircraft tearing itself apart while collapsing.

Me ...not convinced.

[CCIP]

...and if there's any plausible rationalization for Ukraine theoretically shooting down the airliner, I'd at least drop the Putin pretense and go with this one, as expressed by a local in a VICE interview:

http://i.imgur.com/Sxg5Gfk.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/OfUBfJD.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/7kHlEbj.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/2Z25waf.jpg

This? Maybe. Trying to kill Putin? Nah.
Actual details? Still a lot of conjecture. I'm personally waiting for reports on black box data and what the official investigation uncovered so far.

[Dread Knot]

Seems the speculation revolves around a pilot making a crossing engagement with guns to achieve those kinds of holes. The point here is nobody would waste ammunition making that kind of a difficult engagement when they could swing behind the target and end up in the equivalent position of shooting fish in a barrel. I mean, what would the pilot be worried about, that the civilian airliner might shoot back? Not to mention that the 30mm rounds which can turn tank armor into Swiss cheese would have virtually destroyed the cockpit, not just perforated it.

[TarJak]

After reading the English version and looking at the photos I'm convinced that the theory is pure speculation. No frat hand experience with metallurgy or crash investigations or any of the primary materials point to a lack of supporting evidence for the claims being made.

He's got some photos that can be misinterpreted and that's about it.

[Skybird]

There is not just the photo, which nobody of you have explained better than the author, who has the best argument here to explain why what holes look like what. By far the best argumentation he has.

There is the eyewitness report of the Canadian expert who was on scene for the OSCE.

There is the earlier report filed by that Spanish air controller that now has dissapeared for unknown reason. Uktrainian fighters in the air, approaching the Malaysian machine.

There is radar reports both from European air control and Russian control that show that at least two Ukrainian fighters have approached the airliner.

There is the quite similiar looks of the Malaysian plane, and the Russian presidential plane, which use the same tricolor on their fuselages.

To dismiss an Ukrainian plot to assassinate Putin just becaue one cannot imagine it, is naive and ignores the intense hostility that is simemring between Moscow and Kiew since the separation of the ukraine, and the intense hate of key leading figures in Kiew for the Russians in general and Putin in special. Also tak einto account that Kiew gas realsised by now that they will not get back the Crimean without escalating to a major war with Russia - and loosing such a war, necessarily.

But I see that you guys are determined to not take into account any scenarios not meeting your desire to hold Russia or the separatists responsible, althio9gh a missile hit is the most unoikely of all explanations by now.

Lt last time I checked, either Lufthansa pilots (retired) nor the OSCE nor European air control authorities were part of the Russia Today network, CCIP. The OSCE and Europe, and Russia, atre on different siders ov er the Ukraine. Why shoudlthe first promote Russian propaganda stunts? BTW, nothing of what I said and linked, is RT-related.

MH, again, the different looks and sizes of the fragments are bvetter explained by the auhtor'S theory, that perfectly corrpsonds, as far as I xcan say, with the loadout for a tank-killing aircraft thnat fires with its cannon.

Dreasd Knot, the cockpit IS found to be the most destroyed part of the aircraft. Read again what the author says on that part of the fuselage, and that the non-round exit holes in the cockpit photo indicate by the way how the meatl is bend outwards that explosions INSIDE the cockpit have caused these marks. I have looked up the ammo loadout for the SU-25, and you are wrong when thinking it is loaded with kinetic, non-explosive rounds only: like the author explains, it indeed is listed to be loaded with a mix of explosive and fragmentation non-explosive rounds.

I explained early why the Ukrainians - if the scanario unfolded like described - tried the attack this way and not in another way: it is to not being blamed for it and to mask their attack. The key thouh was not to mess with the Western opinion if they start toi assassinate the govenrment leadership of another nation, and to achieve that in a way that leaves no traces, and it was to be assured by destroiyjn g the airplane in mid air without missiles (which would leave traces), but explosive decompression after critical hull damage - by peppering the cockpit with explosve machine cannon rounds, to make sure it gets shreddered to pieces.

You guys can believe what you want. But so far nobody of you has shown to be able to deal with anything the author and the Canadian inspector wrote and said in a believable way. That Lufthansa guy has the better arguments over any points you brought up so far. So who is speculating here?

Anf MH, what could riccocheting against the nose of a plane that flies high and fast, when the hull behind the cockpit segment does not show signs of the massive penetrating damage to be found only at the cockpit section? However, when you have explosive decompression in the hull behidn the cockpit due to the cockpit having broken up, what is there that could explode and overtake the whole plkane and then hit a cockpit section that has exploded BEFORE, and why are there no huge impact marks at the cockpit, only small, round entry holes - the bigger holes are EXIT holes, obviously? Your reasoning ignores a little bit too much there, I think. The author's explanations beats yours easily, since it explains more, easier, and without any contradiction. Note that the Candian expert who was on the scnee and exmained thew wrckage with his colleagues says it was - original quote - "very very heavy machine gun fire". I prefer his expertise over yours, sorry. ;)

P.S. Assuming that Kiew did not want to kill Putin (and misidnetified the target), but wanted to down an airliner only to bring NATO into the war when blaming Russia for it: wouldn't that be a scenario that is even more outraging and revealing an even more diabolic attitude of the deciders in Kiew? When the whole mess started, I said from start on: donÄT line up with Kiew, those guys are not one bit better than those they claim to be evil and their enemies. I have no reason to change that assessment. So: hands off the Ukraine, dear West, there is nothing to win and no honest knight in shiny armour is to be supported there. Kiew and the separatists, they both are wild gangs of criminals and mobsters.

[Dread Knot]

There is the eyewitness report of the Canadian expert who was on scene for the OSCE.

Your Canadian Michael Bociurkiw is not an expert and even admits that in his video interview. He is clearly just highlighting as a non-expert, holes that to him look like machine-gun fire. I expect that if you showed him fragmentation images from A-10 Warthog hit by a SAM warhead then he would describe the damage as looking like "machine-gun fire".

I think a lot of the "exit" holes on MH17 are actually the aluminum skin being blown back from the underlying steel due to fragmentation and possible liquidification of aluminum. But you know what? That's idle speculation on my part and just as useless as if it was in a breathless You Tube video. Which is why we all need to settle down and wait for the proper investigation.

There is the quite similiar looks of the Malaysian plane, and the Russian presidential plane, which use the same tricolor on their fuselages.


Hmmm. Putin's Presidential Ilyushin-96-300 has four engines to the Malaysian 777's two. I guess to make this conspiracy work we merge inept Ukrainian aerial indentification and a dismal pre-flight briefing with some darn crack marksmanship.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/e2/GTK_Rossiya_Ilyushin_Il-96-300PU.jpg/320px-GTK_Rossiya_Ilyushin_Il-96-300PU.jpg

To dismiss an Ukrainian plot to assassinate Putin just becaue one cannot imagine it, is naive and ignores the intense hostility that is simemring between Moscow and Kiew since the separation of the ukraine, and the intense hate of key leading figures in Kiew for the Russians in general and Putin in special.

I would also end to agree with CCIP in what good would've come out of shooting Putin and his staff out of the sky? It would've immediately plunged both countries into war, a war in which the Ukranian government could never prevail in a million years. It would've been national suicide for them. Russia would've unleashed everything they had on the Ukranians, and there isn't a country in the world that would've stopped them. Certainly not "No-Drama Obama", the reluctant warrior.

Frankly, I find it hard to believe that if the Russian government had the irrefutable evidence that Ukraine had so much as attempted an aerial assassination attempt on Putin, even one that failed in this fashion, that their attitude would be as laid back and cavalier about it as it currently seems. The Bear doth protest too little.

You guys can believe what you want. Until I see something more persuasive than stuff pulled off the internet I guess I will.

[MH]

I don't care which side did what , yet I don't see it.
By ricocheting I did not mean against the nose.
Whatever entered the nose of the airplane could have enough kinetic energy to send stuff / splinters flying in different directions me think.
No need for explosive shells.
Some of the top sheet layer could also bend outward due to air friction after the explosion?

[Admiral Halsey]

Honestly I regard the "kill Putin" and Su-25 theory as nothing but wide-eyed conspiracy at this point

I've honestly never heard of that one. I've thought that if the plane was shot down by the Su-25's it's due to Ukraine wanting NATO to get involved.

[Oberon]

If Putins plane is a four engined aircraft, and MH17 a two engined aircraft, and if the Su-25 was supposed to have closed to guns range to shoot this aircraft down then it begs the question why a short-sighted half-blind pilot was allowed to qualify in the Ukrainian airforce.


http://www.plunderbund.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Derp_52678f_2551070.jpg

[Skybird]

On the exit holes, I stick to prefering the statements of those two men who by their background and the fact that one of them saw the pieces with his own eyes in real life simply are better qualified than anyone here. Talking of betting my money on the fastest running horse.

Comparison of the colour schemes:

http://teluguandhranews.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/plane1.jpg

When i saw that, I immediately thought by myself: yes, these two planes could much more easily being mistaken for each other than many other plane-combination you could compare. Absolutely possible.

You can also see that the Il-96 has three engines and the B777 has one engine only. Didn't know that. :D

Mistaking 2 for 4 engines - well, worse stuff has happened in history once the adrenaline got pumping. From a distance, and the side, you may not even see how many engines there are. You speed in, pull trigger, zoom away, and wonder maybe that somehow the plane looked - strange, something seems to have been wrong, eh...? And who knows what the pilot was told his target specifically looks like. If he was sent with order like "S&D some big airliner that is in the area that has Russian colours on it, then anything is possible. Visual misidentifying of targets and missing obvious detials is what happens in the action of war. Sometimes they even intentionally fire on their own troops, thinking they are enemies. And again: who knows what the pilots have been told their target would be like. There could be failing briefings, too. But here we indeed leave the trail of founded theories, and enter the realm of speculation.

On the motivation of Kiew, if Kiew indeed ordered the shunt, there are two theories. The one claiming that a civlian airliner was targetted intentionally to bring NATO into war by blaming Russia/Saparatists, the other theory claiming that one was after assassinating a most hated political leader of the enemy, but misidentifying the target and by error killing another plane. In both cases it is of paramopunt importance for Kiew to hide its respjnsibility and to delete the traces. This would explain why the attack was carried out the way it took place (if the story is true): using the a.) cannons of a b.) SU25 to destroy c.) the cockpit to see the rest of of the airplane being destroyed by d.) explosive decompression and so e.) not to leave behind fragments of a SAM that could tell the identity of the shooter, maybe.

And the Russians? Would be told that their own allies accidentally killed the Russian plane. However, not few people in Kiew seem to fear a full war with Russia and a full invasion anyway, so they do not have much to loose, at least from that way of thinking.

And Putin's cavalier attitude? Originally,and I said that very< early on already, I doubt that he wanted to go into the East in full invasion, he wan ted to get the Crimean and he wanted to divide the Ukraine and so get a ruling word in its inner politics and prevent it from entering NATO via EU. He survived. Cavalier attitude I cannot see any since in the past days we have seen a huge massing of combat-ready troops at the border to the Ukraine again (says NATO. One has to take into account another possible explanation, too, however: the he has lost contorl of the separatists to some degree or was surprised to get less civil support in the East as planned, and so maybe needs to intervene more actively in order to get out of the East what he intitially wanted. I admit, that is possible also, and then would have nothing to do with the airplane event. The separatists' criminal behavior oin the regions they control(led) certainly has alienated some people that originally may have been pro-Russian. The Russian objective has not been helped by the way the separatists presented themselves.

Before, the most likely explanation I believed was that separatists misiodntified the plöane or misled a missile when engagiung maybe that SU-25 in its vicinty, and shot it down with gorund.-based SAM. But I have not heared and seen any reports since then that support the view of a SAM being engaged here. And there are no such traces and debris. What there is, is perforated metal fragments from the totally destroyed cockpit that so far are best explained by a certain cannon ammunition penetrating the cockpit and exploding inside, and metal fragments from other parts of the plane showing almost no such damages. Whatever destroyed the cockpit: it neither was a SAM, nor has the rest of the plane been destroyed by the same effect.

P.S. I expect the Americans to know more about the events than they say, their satellite and other intelligence simply is too good and too focussed on the Ukraine as if it makes sense to assume differently. Of course they will not tell all thy know, since that woudl comrpriomse their attmept to hide how good their possibilities indeed are (thats why any relased info by them also has to be taken with extreme caution). But isn't it suspicious indeed that they stage so little pressure and action over this incident when you consider that it was an airliner with complete loss of life? I remember the outcry and furor over the Koreean airliner shot down in the 80s by the Soviets. That one probably was either diverted to do a spying flight for the US, or the US underestimated the Soviet determination to prevent what otherwise maybe was a testing of the Soviet air defence reaction times. Both scenarios however, usually mentioned as the most likely explanations, could not be proven by the Soviets or anyone else, and so Wahsington risked nothing to opening verbal fire from all media and diplomatic platforms. Compared to that storm back then, what we get today from Washington (not over the complete conflict, but this one incident), is relatively silent. Why is that? Is it really so far fetched a thought that they know damn well what happened - and do not want it to become known since it would be opposing their official political strategy to confront the Russians over the Ukraine and to support Kiew instead? Why have many of the pictures been cleaned from the internet? And what about that Spanish air controller?

[TarJak]

Still its all speculation isn't it either way you look at it. Until investigators on the ground confirm one way or another.

[Skybird]

I gave you an interview with one such investigators on the ground, one of the first arriving there. Just that you do not accept him, since he does not have to say by his eyes' witnessing what people here want to hear. The OSCE sent him there - because he was an incompetent dilettante...???

You want experts that confirm your view of things. And you want an official expert from Western bodies that report exactly what the Western position wants to see being confirmed.

I just wait for somebody wanting the US Air Force to examine the pieces and presenting their report. That the Russians manipulated the debris they got their hands on, is being taken for granted. That the Americans or that Kiew of course would not do so, seems to be taken as granted, too.

I said it before, this whole story is a theory, and a well-founded one that explains all known facts better than any other explanation so far. It avoids all contradictions earlier explanations suffered from, too. I do not say its true. I only say it must be taken into account, and must be "tested". It also is supported by what the examiners at locations so far have said.

Different to many people who seem to know what really happened and that it were the Russians/separatists, I simply take it and try to view it from all angles and perspectives, no matter where they lead me to - even those perspectives that in the West are tabooized by now. Before, I took the separatist-SAM theory as best theory there is - until the theory seem to have collapsed. So, one-sided bias or Russian media-implemented prepossession I do not accept to get accused of.

[TarJak]

No I want the official report from the international investigation team. Till that's handed down all we have is conjecture.

In something less conjectured: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-10/russia-flags-entering-ukraine-for-humanitarian-purposes/5660686
This will be interesting to watch play out.

[Jimbuna]

US president Barack Obama and German chancellor Angela Merkel overnight agreed such a move would be "unacceptable" and "violates international law, and will provoke additional consequences".

I doubt Putin will be losing much sleep over the above.

[TarJak]

I doubt Putin will be losing much sleep over the above.

http://redalertpolitics.com/files/2012/09/ObamaGolf.jpg

Nope

[August]

I just wait for somebody wanting the US Air Force to examine the pieces and presenting their report. That the Russians manipulated the debris they got their hands on, is being taken for granted. That the Americans or that Kiew of course would not do so, seems to be taken as granted, too.

Are you seriously comparing Kievs technical ability to manipulate evidence that is located in hostile territory with Moscows technical ability to manipulate evidence that is located friendly territory?

Really?

[TarJak]

Are you seriously comparing Kievs technical ability to manipulate evidence that is located in hostile territory with Moscows technical ability to manipulate evidence that is located friendly territory?

Really?

Let's not speculate too much shall we?:D

[Skybird]

Are you seriously comparing Kievs technical ability to manipulate evidence that is located in hostile territory with Moscows technical ability to manipulate evidence that is located friendly territory?

Really?
Read again the reference you quote me by - maybe then you get what I really said.

[TarJak]

In something less conjectured: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-10/russia-flags-entering-ukraine-for-humanitarian-purposes/5660686
This will be interesting to watch play out.

http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-12/russia-sends-non-military-aid-convoy-to-east-ukraine/5664050

Russia sends in humanitarian aid to Eastern Ukraine. Have to question how the supplies medical or otherwise are kept out of the hands of belligerents.

[mapuc]

There are things I do not understand

When other subsim members post conspiracy stuff we laugh at them at most, but in this thread I see member sharing things that is or looks like conspiracy stuff.

As Tarjak wrote let us wait until the official report is at hand. then we can discuss it.

Markus

[AngusJS]

So the Ukrainians somehow misidentify a 2 engine Boeing that has flown over the length of the country for a 4 engine Ilyushin that looks nothing like it.

They don't pause to wonder why Putin would be flying over a war zone.

They don't consider what the disastrous consequences of killing off the leadership of the Russian Federation would be for them.

So they scramble not an interceptor, but the Su-25 ground attack plane, with a service ceiling 3000m below MH17, to do the job.

Then they simply fake the recordings and the web posts of the rebels saying that they shot down the plane.

Oh, and they get US and other Western intelligence to go along with their story.

Yeah, sounds legit. :roll:

[Jimbuna]

So the Ukrainians somehow misidentify a 2 engine Boeing that has flown over the length of the country for a 4 engine Ilyushin that looks nothing like it.

They don't pause to wonder why Putin would be flying over a war zone.

They don't consider what the disastrous consequences of killing off the leadership of the Russian Federation would be for them.

So they scramble not an interceptor, but the Su-25 ground attack plane, with a service ceiling 3000m below MH17, to do the job.

Then they simply fake the recordings and the web posts of the rebels saying that they shot down the plane.

Oh, and they get US and other Western intelligence to go along with their story.

Yeah, sounds legit. :roll:

Some would have you believe.

[TarJak]

http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-13/ukraine-blocks-russian-humanitarian-convoy-from-entering-country/5666910

This appears top be playing out predictably.

[Oberon]

Indeed, just as expected really, score one for Moscow, pulling the old 'humanitarian convoy' trick, just like Turkey did with Israel a while ago (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10198873).

Is this a prelude to the Russian military going in to insure that the aid reaches the population? Hard to say. :hmmm:

[TarJak]

And will Ukraine or NATO try to stop them? I agree with the wish for the International Red Cross to be the party handing out the aid and not the Russian military. No problem using their trucks and transport, but without supervision who knows what will go to whom?

[Jimbuna]

A positive step for Putin, who knows the west are trying to juggle too many balls at the same time.

This is his opportunity to prove he is being honest and forthright but on the other hand it is also an opportunity to make this the first step in annexing East Ukraine.

[Skybird]

Kiev's Nazi auxiliaries:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/11025137/Ukraine-crisis-the-neo-Nazi-brigade-fighting-pro-Russian-separatists.html

And on the first picture, that guy named "Phantom", wears a contemporary German uniform jacket called "Flecktarn". How do they get German Bundeswehr uniforms?

[TarJak]

Kiev's Nazi auxiliaries:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/11025137/Ukraine-crisis-the-neo-Nazi-brigade-fighting-pro-Russian-separatists.html

And on the first picture, that guy named "Phantom", wears a contemporary German uniform jacket called "Flecktarn". How do they get German Bundeswehr uniforms?

Doesn't seem that hard to do: http://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_kw=bundeswehr+uniform_flecktarn+jacket
http://www.hessenantique.com/Bundeswehr_Clothing_s/635.htm

[Skybird]

Yes, I was about something else. Why getting such stuff from several countries away, when camouflaged uniforms can be most likely gotten in your closest vicinity? I assume where there is one guy wearing Flecktarn, there are many others as well.

But okay, not the most important of details...

[TarJak]

Yes, I was about something else. Why getting such stuff from several countries away, when camouflaged uniforms can be most likely gotten in your closest vicinity? I assume where there is one guy wearing Flecktarn, there are many others as well.

But okay, not the most important of details...

Maybe because they are Nazi's they like German stuff for some reason? I see your point though. Could just be that one guy also.

[Skybird]

German media report that Ukrainian military forces have directly engaged Russian units that were reported to have entered Ukraine in the darkness of the night. Several of the attacked Russian armoured personnel carrier should have been destroyed. British reporters claimed last night that a convoy of two dozen armoured troop carriers entered the Ukraine at night, with soldiers and vehicles displaying national Russian colours and emblems.

If this gets confirmed, it could be the beginning of a formal Ukrainian-Russian war. In this case, such a war maybe will no longer be limited to the Eastern part only.

At the last count, NATO claimed that Russia had some 45 or 48 thousand troops in "combat-ready" status near the border.


Edit:

http://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article131275099/Ukraine-meldet-Angriff-auf-russischen-Armee-Konvoi.html
http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/ukrainische-truppen-greifen-russischen-konvoi-an-a-986396.html

Ukrainian artillery should have destroyed "a significant share", in other formulations "the better share" or "most of" the Russian column.

Meanwhile the foreign minister of Latvia claims not just two dozens, but over 70 Russian vehicles moved into the Ukraine last night, loaded with equipment and military supplies.

[Oberon]

Correlated on British media, Ukraine is also withdrawing any and all peacekeepers it has in service on UN missions internationally.

Meanwhile on the other side of the border:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BvFYyeKIMAIqz1o.jpg:large

[Skybird]

Situation remains unclear and mysterious. There is no confirmation so far for that Russian IFV convoy passing the border last night, also Russia denies that it happened, and also denies that it has lost any unit in said artillery strike by the Ukrainians.

Kiev on its behalf so far does not give any evidence for its claims that were raised by the Ukrainian president's website first..

So...

It is possible that it is just a propaganda lie, much like the events staged by Saakashvili in Georgia 2008 to trigger a NATO intervention. I doubt that Russia would just not react at all if Ukrainian artillery just wiped out several of its armoured troops transports.

It'S also possible that it happened. In which case I still expect a Russian, and substantial military response, even if it is a delayed one. Absolutely possible that Putin tries to provoke a Ukrainian attack on some of Russia'S forces - to get a military excuse to go all in.

[Schroeder]

If it did happen there would be pictures of burning APCs all over the net even if just shot from far away. It's too good a propaganda opportunity to just let go to waste. So far we have nothing and that makes me doubt the whole thing.

Regarding uniforms I see some people here in my area with British, American or French camo clothes which can be bought in any army store. Doesn't necessarily have to mean anything.

[Oberon]

It really is 50/50 right now, if they have attacked a Russian column then there is a clear cassus belli for limited Russian retaliation, however it's entirely possible that this is a lie from Kiev, I won't deny that, however Kiev will need something a bit stronger than that to get direct NATO assistance. T-80s rolling into Kharkov might do it. :hmmm:

[Skybird]

T-80s rolling into Kharkov might do it. :hmmm:

No, it might not. NATO is not ready to engage Russia in a full war - on territory where many people speak Russian, practically. Not to mention that NATO is not ready for war on that scale at all. They even admitted that they could not even defend NATO member sin the East, if Russia strikes them. And Ukraine is not NATO. Trying to make it one was what got this current crisis running.

[CCIP]

Well, the Russian defense ministry have flatly denied anything to do with this and have called the Ukrainian claims of destroying a Russian armoured column a "fantasy". So they certainly appear to have no interest in looking for a causus belli there :hmmm:

And when talking about NATO's will and capability, let's not forget Russia's either. Going to war, even a limited one, in the Ukraine would be no better for the Russians. The Russian experience with these "limited wars" has not been a good one and the high command should by now have thoroughly internalized that. Even the relatively successful 2008 Georgia conflict did not show the Russian military in the best light and exposed a lot of problems and weaknesses. It's possible to argue that they need a new test case - but more likely that most of the Russian military leadership regards this as a bad idea. Which, really, it is.

[mapuc]

And will not happen remember your answer to me in my own thread
"A military strategic question"

Markus

[Oberon]

No, it might not. NATO is not ready to engage Russia in a full war - on territory where many people speak Russian, practically. Not to mention that NATO is not ready for war on that scale at all. They even admitted that they could not even defend NATO member sin the East, if Russia strikes them. And Ukraine is not NATO. Trying to make it one was what got this current crisis running.

Valid point, but it would probably get them to send something in aid, which is really what Kiev wants...something, anything to assist them in securing the eastern side of the country. I honestly would have trouble imagining the nations of NATO (at the very least the usual three, UK, US, France) not reacting at all to a full on Russian (I nearly typed Soviet there...talk about Freudian :/\\!!) invasion of the Ukraine.


Well, the Russian defense ministry have flatly denied anything to do with this and have called the Ukrainian claims of destroying a Russian armoured column a "fantasy". So they certainly appear to have no interest in looking for a causus belli there :hmmm:

And when talking about NATO's will and capability, let's not forget Russia's either. Going to war, even a limited one, in the Ukraine would be no better for the Russians. The Russian experience with these "limited wars" has not been a good one and the high command should by now have thoroughly internalized that. Even the relatively successful 2008 Georgia conflict did not show the Russian military in the best light and exposed a lot of problems and weaknesses. It's possible to argue that they need a new test case - but more likely that most of the Russian military leadership regards this as a bad idea. Which, really, it is.

Well, that's a bit of good news anyway, at least it shows there's no real intent on Russias behalf there at this moment in time.
Good point on the Russian forces experience in 'limited war', I guess in a way NATO has had a similar problem adjusting from a Cold War standpoint into littoral small conflict engagements. I know I have. :haha:
I, too, expect that the Russian military leadership thinks that it would be a bad idea, the trouble is, even with the siloviki around, how much weight would their opinion have if Putin was to put forward a politically and nationalistically weighted arguement for war. :hmmm:

And will not happen remember your answer to me in my own thread
"A military strategic question"

Markus

In my own defence, I believe at one point I did put forward that Putin would not invade and annex Crimea...so, um...yeah, there's that.

Some days I do have a horrible feeling that in a past life I was Neville Chamberlain... :hmmm:

[CCIP]

To be fair, taking Crimea the way it was taken was a stupid and costly move in every possible way. It's going to continue costing Russia a lot and, in many regards, is actually very helpful to the rest of Ukraine because it saddled Putin's government with a big logistical clusterfudge. By any independent account, it's rapidly turning into an economic black hole, and even keeping it supplied with necessities and connected to Russia is obscenely difficult and costly. The "Crimea is ours!" line is one they'll keep singing for a while in propaganda, but in reality I think many in the Russian leadership are probably regretting it already. If nothing else, I think it's one of the reasons Russia got a bit more cautious here.

As for Russian involvement - I don't think Putin is in favour of escalating or sending in troops. At least the strictly military side of the siloviki, with a few possible exceptions, is probably very against it. Government technocrats like Medvedev are definitely against it, although nobody cares about him anymore outside of twitter anyway. But I think there are some very hard nationalist elements in the Russian government, and also probably in the state security apparatus, who are still very much for it. Every fringe nationalist party is for it. A lot of regional nationalists (e.g. Kadyrov) are all for it, with some actively and openly supporting the anti-Kiev militias already. Ironically (or maybe not ironically at all!) maybe the loudest calls for intervention in the Ukraine are coming from the Communists, but again, nobody particularly cares about them there anymore either. Still, my bet is that for Putin, more than anything, he's looking for reasons NOT to get directly involved and to keep away the nationalist arguments. Ultimately though, I don't think it's his decision and I think if the political tide goes one way or the other in Russia, he'll go with it. We'll see which way it goes I guess. But again, at least on the military side, I'm pretty confident that Russian commanders realize as well as anyone that intervening directly would be a bad idea.

[Jimbuna]

If it did happen there would be pictures of burning APCs all over the net even if just shot from far away. It's too good a propaganda opportunity to just let go to waste. So far we have nothing and that makes me doubt the whole thing.

Regarding uniforms I see some people here in my area with British, American or French camo clothes which can be bought in any army store. Doesn't necessarily have to mean anything.

Pretty much sums it up for me :yep:

[TarJak]

This is sure to make things in Ukraine much better:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-17/separatist-rebels-getting-tanks-and-reinforcements-for-offensive/5676256

:nope:

[Jimbuna]

Well so much for Russian assurances and guarantees to the US yesterday that Russia were not supplying military aid to the rebels.

[CCIP]

On the other hand, I'd also take things these guys (and well, everybody else) says with a grain of salt.

On the other hand, the Ukrainian border service have inspected that aid convoy today and have said that they verified it to be humanitarian aid and are letting it through.

[Skybird]

I still think that the Kremlin all in all plays this whole match according to its original two phase plan: to get the Crimean and deny it and the rest of Eastern Ukraine to NATO, and to enforce a federalist structure of the remaining Ukraine where the federalist forces of the Eastern provinces make sure the complete state remains to be no threat and is not likely to join EU, and more important: not joining NATO.

Its the only way I can make sense of this huge 280 trucks-convoy. It is the decpetion to prepare a Russian peace keeping. Russian tanks with additional emblems pointing at this direction should have been spotted already.

Kiev will hate to not get back the full territory that it claims.

I also still think that the West under no circumstances should get envolved there, and should not deliver military aid or forces. The Ukraine is a failed state, and a bottomless money pit. What the heck should the EU do with such a sinkhole for Western tax money? The EU is in desperate need of financial stability, not just more hungry mouths that demand to get fed. It'S in Euroope'S best interest to not get invoolved over the ukraine - militarily anyway, but also financially and economically. It just is costs, no gains, no real compensation different to "cultural enrichment". And the latter - pays no bills.

[Skybird]

I still think that the Kremlin all in all plays this whole match according to its original two phase plan: to get the Crimean and deny it and the rest of Eastern Ukraine to NATO, and to enforce a federalist structure of the remaining Ukraine where the federalist forces of the Eastern provinces make sure the complete state remains to be no threat and is not likely to join EU, and more important: not joining NATO.

Its the only way I can make sense of this huge 280 trucks-convoy. It is the deception to prepare a Russian peace keeping mission. Russian tanks with additional emblems below and beside their national emblems, should have been spotted already.

Kiev will hate to not get back the full territory that it claims.

I also still think that the West under no circumstances should get envolved there, and should not deliver military aid or forces. The Ukraine is a failed state, and a bottomless money pit. What the heck should the EU do with such a sinkhole for Western tax money? The EU is in desperate need of financial stability, not just more hungry mouths that demand to get fed. It'S in Europe'S best interest to not get involved over the Ukraine - militarily anyway, but also financially and economically. It just is costs, no gains, no real compensation different to "cultural enrichment". And the latter - pays no bills, nor is it often to be seen. Quite the opposite: it causes more and higher bills, and does cultural damage.

[Jimbuna]

The latest madness, claim and counter-claim...

Refugee convoy hit by rockets

Ukraine has blamed pro-Russian rebels but they have denied carrying out the attack, near the village of Novosvitlivka.
"The Ukrainians themselves have bombed the road constantly with planes and Grads. It seems they've now killed more civilians like they've been doing for months now," he was quoted as saying.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28832873

[Platapus]

Well so much for Russian assurances and guarantees to the US yesterday that Russia were not supplying military aid to the rebels.


I am shocked. Shocked, I say! that any country would covertly send weapons to other areas in order to further their national policy.

You would not catch the US doing something like that. That would be wrong. :nope:

[Skybird]

Considering how the US abused Russian good will - and weakness! - in the Yeltzin years, I would say that the US has lost the right to ride the moral high horse. When it comes boosting its foreign political goals, it is not one bit better or less unscrupulous than Moscow or Kiew.

Politics knows no morals. Only the mechanisms of power. Machiavelli was the first to see and describe that uncomproised, and with precisoion that is still mactual today. He described the ways the game is being played - He did not assess the morality of this or that method. This fine difference is that gets often misunderstood.

[TarJak]

Whoosh

[Skybird]

German media report today that the Dutch Safty Board heading the examination of the incident and authoring of the reports, has announced now that they will not publish the content of the cockpit voice recordings.

A draft report is about to be released, but they said that that report will not publish important details . The final report now is said to be published within a year - but they have already said that in that report they too will refuse to publish any information that could accuse anyone.

Dear Dutch Safety Board - may I suggest you better skip those reports alltogether and instead use the paper for it to produce some rolls of toilet paper, branded Anal Royal, maybe? :up:

Moscow's reaction came promptly, accusing the Dutch of trying to disguise the way in which events unfolded, and claiming that Russian defence ministry possesses radar data from Russian airspace control showing Ukrainian combat airplanes in close vicinity to the Malaysian airplane.

Only one thing is clear. The West would love to use any smoking gun there is to discredit Russia. That it refuses to do so with the shooting down of MH17, cannot be explained with diplomatic hesitation or concerns to spill oil into the fire - the fire already is there, obviously. Sometimes the easiest explanation is most likely the true one. And the easiest explanation is that all information they have shows that it was not the Russians or separatists. Which narrows the number of suspects to just one of originally three.

[Catfish]

I am shocked. Shocked, I say! that any country would covertly send weapons to other areas in order to further their national policy.
You would not catch the US doing something like that. That would be wrong. :nope:

:03: True ..
however it depends who does it. We are the good, and the brave, forever, amen.

[Skybird]

The German government formally answered a request by the party "Die Linke" and said that the German government knows of no information that would allow to safely conclude on the use of surface-to-air missiles in the shooting incident that brought down MH17. Regarding the data of two NATO AWACS planes over Romania and Poland, the German government officially replied that at the time the Malaysian plane was shot down it had left the radar detection range of the two AWACS planes since 30 minutes. On the request to inform parliament about foreign intelligence data and American satellite data, the German government refused to give any answer, citing secrecy demands.

German language:
http://www.spiegel.de/panorama/flug-mh17-regierung-hat-keine-sicheren-erkenntnisse-ueber-abschuss-a-990288.html

[TarJak]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-09-09/mh17-brought-down-by-high-energy-objects-report-says/5730614

The report is released and it basically says nothing much that we don't already know. Our PM has opened his mouth and says something that is not likely to edify anyone. :yawn:

[Skybird]

Exactly as predicted. The report equals the droppings of a weasel. and how nicely they have maneuvered around certain things they do not want to say!

Hilarious, and a waste of time.

[TarJak]

It is of course only the interim report. The final report will not be released for about another 12 months, when the media and most the sheeple will not remember the plane going down, let alone the fuss over who did it.

[Skybird]

They already have announced that in that final report they will not say anything as well.

The only thing that has been confirmed by the report now is that the blackbox apparently has not been manipulated by separatists or anyone else.

At least that is what they claim.

[Bilge_Rat]

interesting article trying to track down the Buk SAM system that shot down MH17:

The Buk that was seen leaving the suspected area of the missile launch on the 17th of July most likely belonged to and was manned by Russian troops from the 53rd Kursk Brigade.

https://bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-europe/2014/09/08/images-show-the-buk-that-downed-flight-mh17-inside-russia-controlled-by-russian-troops/

[Skybird]

Dear god, vague and grainy photos that remind of the evidence given for the existence of UFOs are claimed to be "evidence", while the crystalclear and razorsharp highres pics of pieces form the cockpiut wreckage are labelled as being linked to "conspiracy theory".

:har:

One thing is clear - if I would have been at holidays in that area and had my private little BUK system with me and then get surprised by the mass media telling me that somebody shot down an airliner, then I would have tried to get away and move out my BUK as silently and unseen as possible. :03: I hate it when people point fingers at me although I did nothing...

What did the German government officially declare in parliament just days ago? "The federal government has no knowledge on info of any kind that would indicate or allow the conclusion that a missiles was used for shooting down MH17". The Germans are one of the parties participating in the examination and research, and the authoring of that report.

I still do not say that the fighter-machine-gun theory is the truth. I only say that it is the better btheory epxlaining more contradicting issues that the missile theory leaves unadressed and unexplained. Since it is the more elegant theory, it has the higher probability to be true. And all that visual "evidence" given on what happened, and Russia here and missiles there - it has the quality of and is as untestable as the kind of photos that are usually given to prove the existence of UFOs.

Too thin in substance as that should be called "evidence".

[Jimbuna]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-09-09/mh17-brought-down-by-high-energy-objects-report-says/5730614

The report is released and it basically says nothing much that we don't already know. Our PM has opened his mouth and says something that is not likely to edify anyone. :yawn:

I'm not sure I'm able to believe anybody on any side now.

[TarJak]

Will be interesting to see what the metallurgy says: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-09-12/mh17-investigation/5741322

[Oberon]

Probably:

http://www.akirathedon.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/identifying-wood.jpg

But with metal instead of wood.

[TarJak]

Maybe or hey that metal is not used in aircraft manufacture but is used in suitcases or weapons.

[Stealhead]

Probably:

http://www.akirathedon.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/identifying-wood.jpg

But with metal instead of wood.

You win at internet.:sunny: Meme master.

[Jimbuna]

Maybe or hey that metal is not used in aircraft manufacture but is used in suitcases or weapons.

What puzzles me is the fact they state they are going to such detailed and elaborate lengths but the recent report said squat.

[Aktungbby]

A little fresh perspective : http://www.scmp.com/news/world/article/1556036/timeline-tragic-history-civilian-airliner-shootdown-incidents (http://www.scmp.com/news/world/article/1556036/timeline-tragic-history-civilian-airliner-shootdown-incidents)

[Skybird]

It probably is more appropriate to post it here:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2835088/Is-moment-MH17-shot-flew-Ukraine-Russian-state-broadcaster-produces-satellite-images-showing-fighter-jet-attack.html

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/11/14/1415993353768_wps_22_Russian_Channel_1_shows_v.jpg

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/11/14/1415993366158_wps_23_Russian_Channel_1_shows_v.jpg

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/11/14/1415993381753_wps_24_Russian_Channel_1_shows_v.jpg

What I said in the other thread, still is valid here: further examination of this photo is needed. Just to claim that it is photoshopped, is not good enough. The claim needs to get proven. Because just a claim could be as wrong as the photo can be forged.

Repost from the other thread:

The airliner in the photo has two engines and it looks like a long body if judging that against the form of the wings. It seems to be a long plane, with twin-engine configuration - and that matches indeed the shape of a 777 that the downed MA17 has been.

The body length of a 777 is 63-73 meters, depending on specific model. If measuring the length of the airliner versus the distance between the fighter and the airliner, I find the distance to be around 9.5x the length of the airliner. Calculating with a airliner length of 70 meters, the shooting distance then is around 660 meters. That is the range for an infrared-guided short range AAM.

The pilot must have had visual contact then. At same altitude, he probably could not see the engine configuration, could not see whether there were two or four engines, the silhouette would allowed to see that if being at a higher or lower altitude, maybe. Maybe the pilot got an idea of the colour scheme, however.

And here we are at that old scenario again that was described as a possibility some weeks earlier - that maybe it was an intentional Ukrainian attack against the presidential Russian machine, an IL-96 with 4 engines. As I earlier showed, the colours schemes are anything but impossible to be mistaken.

http://teluguandhranews.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/plane1.jpg

Examination of this satellite image is needed. Trust in official Western sources is not justified - they are propaganda tools like Ukrainian and Russian official channels as well.

Note that the blue-red lines on both airlines are ABOVE the height level of wings and engines, they are not being partially blocked by the engines if looking at the planes from same altitude or slightly elevated position. I think for a pilot in that situation, that hprizonmtal line acros the full length of the main body served as a main hint for the pilot to identity the "Russian presidential plane".
__________________

[mapuc]

^ You are right this photo need to be investigated by the best there are in that field of expertise

If I know the human psychology correct-there will always be people who claim the photo to be either genuin or false-what ever this investigation will show.

Markus

[Oberon]

I thought that it was supposed to have been shot down by a Frogfoot?

That looks more like a MiG-29 or Su-27.

[Skybird]

I thought that it was supposed to have been shot down by a Frogfoot?

That looks more like a MiG-29 or Su-27.
And it weas claimed that cannon fire was used, not missiles.

While others claim it was a surface missile.

That is the charm of both the explanation scenarios: this new one unites the best from both. :)

I got two PMs claiming that it has already been proven that the photo is faked, the sender hopefully will provide his information tomorrow, he said. I cannot access the link he gave me, my security suite blocks it.

[Skybird]

^ You are right this photo need to be investigated by the best there are in that field of expertise

If I know the human psychology correct-there will always be people who claim the photo to be either genuin or false-what ever this investigation will show.

Markus

Like with the earlier scneario (SU25 firing mike mike) I do not claim it is true - just that the claims need to be examined and further verified or falsified. The governments in Moscow and Kiev, Washington and London cannot be trusted in their claims, and they all have the means to produce forged material, and they all have motives to see their claims being pushed through.

[Oberon]

It's not beyond the realms of possibility, likewise the Frogfoot and Buk proposals. The UAF does have the MiG-29s that Russia shipped back to them from Crimea although they were in pretty poor condition when they were captured. There's also some flying around from the Ukrainian display team and a couple of standard 29s have been shot down by pro-Russian forces.
The image quality though, doesn't match up to me, if I'm honest.

Other problems are apparently, according to a quick google search:

The image is 50km west of the crash site

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B2azjSjCMAEUjmk.jpg

The missile has been reported to have hit MH-17 on the left side of the cockpit, the opposite side to the direction the Aphid is coming in from in this photo
The text on the side of 'MH-17' in this picture is in the wrong place.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b4/Malaysia_Airlines_Boeing_777-2H6ER_Wedelstaedt.jpg
Note in this picture that the text 'malaysia' is above the wing spar, whereas in the satellite image it's forward of the wing spar...and in fact, bares some resemblance to the original 'Boeing' house title, like so:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B2bQ_kMCEAAPcs8.png:large

[Schroeder]

It's the daily fail. They only get stories right by accident. I would take it with a truck load of salt and wait for the professionals to analyze it. Until then I would say the probability of it being garbage is 90%.

[Skybird]

There are many Western sites claiming it is a correct photo (liveleak for example). There are also many Western sites claiming that it is a fake (foxtrot alpha for example).

I really do not know what to make of it all. And we probbaly never can be sure anbyway. Maybe in the end we just will beoeiuve in the best faked version, and truth always stays in the hidden.

Because, as I said, all actors in this, Eastern as well as Western actors, have different motives.

[Skybird]

It's the daily fail.
No, Focus also has it, and others. The source is Russia Channel 1. Daily Mail only parrots it.

I would take it with a truck load of salt and wait for the professionals to analyze it.

Agreed on the salt,. but what experts do you prefer? Theirs - ours or somebody else's? :D

[Schroeder]

Agreed on the salt,. but what experts do you prefer? Theirs - ours or somebody else's? :D
The huge problem with the whole Ukrainian conflict is that each and every side is lying to us (which is why I have zero sympathy for any side anymore). So we'll probably never know for sure what really happened there.

[mapuc]

The huge problem with the whole Ukrainian conflict is that each and every side is lying to us (which is why I have zero sympathy for any side anymore). So we'll probably never know for sure what really happened there.

Same here. My only concerns are for the civilians who is the real victims in this war-beside the truth.

Markus

[Skybird]

Two truths about secret services always will stay the same: 1. The main part of their work is not focussed on somebody else, but on their own population and manipulating it; 2. The best tool of manipulation is to prevent information and to mix truths with half-truths.

[Dowly]

@Skybird: Those photos were clearly taken on land. Where? No one saw? No radar tracked it? Sorry, but sounds like woo to me.

[Skybird]

Dowly, as already in August was said (and earlier in this thread), there are claims that radar tracking data exist(ed). And a Spanish air control guy mysteriously disappeared, it seems he has not shown up again, ever. If this man existed, one must wonder if he even is still alive.

That the plane was shot down over land, seems to be no worry regarding witnesses when it is claimed that a BUK downed it. But when the same plane was shot down not by a BUK but an interceptor you think it is a concern regarding witnesses on the ground? What is the difference?

[Dowly]

Dowly, as already in August was said (and earlier in this thread), there are claims that radar tracking data exist(ed). And a Spanish air control guy mysteriously disappeared, it seems he has not shown up again, ever. If this man existed, one must wonder if he even is still alive.
Who is the radar operator? Is he really missing? His/her co-workers/boss/family would have reported him/her missing, but they did not, why? All extremely relevant questions.

That the plane was shot down over land, seems to be no worry regarding witnesses when it is claimed that a BUK downed it. But when the same plane was shot down not by a BUK but an interceptor you think it is a concern regarding witnesses on the ground? What is the difference?Witnesses' saw the plane in 5-6 different places. Eyewitnesseses, while important are not reliable in most cases.

I have no idea what happened to the plane, but I think's it's highly unlikely it went everywhere but south. (personal opinion)

[ikalugin]

Although it ain't morning in Moscow anymore, I would still post the story I owe to the certain German member of this forum. The points presented here by me originate from various other forum users (as I am no PS master), thus they are not hundred percent authorative by them selves, so make your own conclusions.

This appears to be the original high resolution image:
http://i57.tinypic.com/2rdeps2.jpg
The following issues with it were claimed:
- The aircraft and the airfield are of the same size, even though on an satellite image the ground objects and the airborne objects would be on similar scale (thus either airfield should be larger or this is not a satellite shot).
- most of the background appears to be taken from the satellite, judging from specific compression artefacts.
- Boing and Flanker have different resolution when compared to the background.
- cloud formations appear to be created by a photoshop tool

[Oberon]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-30064374

[Skybird]

I owe to the certain German member of this forum

Why so cryptic? :) :haha:

[Skybird]

The Google-Cloud claim in Oberon's link is the most convincing claim to me so far that the photo is a fake. The other claims more or less leave open backdoors.

[ikalugin]

I wonder when and if any factual materials will surface regarding this incident.

[Oberon]

I wonder when and if any factual materials will surface regarding this incident.

The problem is defining what are facts.
Both sides have released what they claim to be facts, but the other sides refuse to believe the facts or discredit them.

To be honest, I doubt we'll ever fully know, or when the official report is released I doubt everyone will believe it, just like with TWA-800 or even 9/11.

[Dread Knot]

To be honest, I doubt we'll ever fully know, or when the official report is released I doubt everyone will believe it, just like with TWA-800 or even 9/11.

Yes. Thanks to this photo, I expect to hearing for years from breathless conspiracy theorists that they saw the picture taken from the Zapruder satellite showing the Ukrainian Mig shooting down the holographic 777 over the grassy knolls with a chemtrail missile. :doh:

At least in this photo they stopped blaming the SU-25. Saves the trouble of editing Wikipedia everyday to give the aircraft near spaceflight capabilities.

[Skybird]

The edits on the SU25's abilities were about downgrading them, not upgrading them. ;) The idea was to discredit the idea that a SU-25 could reach an airliner flying much above the SU's maximum ceiling. However, the often quoted 7 km maximum means a plane in full combat configuration (full tactical weapon load, maybe tanks). The SU-25 however has demonstrated in flight tests a maximum flight altitude of over 12 km.

(The newer SU-39 that bases on the SU25 even demonstrated a maximum altitude in excess of 14 km. )

That a lightly-loaded SU-25 makes it up to 10 km and on same altitude like an airliner, absolutely is within the reach of possible scenarios. Maybe not in full tactical configuration, but in that theoretic scenario it never was claimed that the plane was fully armed, and why should it have been anyway when its mission should have been to use its cannon only?).

So all this illustrates the basic problem about the whole incident: claims are made, and then get met by the other side with only claims again. No evidences shown by anyone so far: not by Moscow, not by Kiev, not by Washington or London, not by anyone else. They all only claim to have evidence. But that is not the same like presenting the evidence.

I assume that evidence exists for sure. But it may not become known before decades have passed, maybe.

[Oberon]

I think, personally, that it was a screw-up by the Donbass Peoples Militia, I mean if the United States of America can accidentally shoot down an airliner (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655), and the Soviet Union can also do the same (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_Air_Lines_Flight_007), then a militia can certainly make the same mistake. These things happen in war and it's the risk you run if you continue to fly civilian aircraft over a warzone.

[Skybird]

That is the scenario with the highest probability, yes. But some other alternative scenarios still need to be proven wrong in evidence. As I argued weeks earlier, the SU-25 story explains some details that the BUK story as it is known today does not, and some details are mentioned in that altermative that also are left untouched by the BUK scenario.

The Dutch report is anything but helpful. Ordinary citizens could maybe even be charged with claims of obstructing justice if being questioned and answering like that. The intention just not to touch anybody is too obvious in that report. It doe snoit matter whether that is in compliance with the dutch examination board's duty or not. It still is a failure, officially wanted failure or not.

However.

[ikalugin]

I think, personally, that it was a screw-up by the Donbass Peoples Militia, I mean if the United States of America can accidentally shoot down an airliner (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655), and the Soviet Union can also do the same (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_Air_Lines_Flight_007), then a militia can certainly make the same mistake. These things happen in war and it's the risk you run if you continue to fly civilian aircraft over a warzone.
There was also a case when Ukranians shot an air liner in 2001.
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siberia_Airlines_Flight_1812
I also think that most crews after these events never have fired a live SAM round though I could be wrong.

[Oberon]

There was also a case when Ukranians shot an air liner in 2001.
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siberia_Airlines_Flight_1812
I also think that most crews after these events never have fired a live SAM round though I could be wrong.

Indeed, it's entirely possible, no matter how well trained you make a SAM operator, especially in a warzone and under pressure.

[CptSimFreak]

It probably is more appropriate to post it here:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2835088/Is-moment-MH17-shot-flew-Ukraine-Russian-state-broadcaster-produces-satellite-images-showing-fighter-jet-attack.html






_


Original source is from a russian news channel claiming that it was from foreign satellite... absolute silliness and horrible knowledge about military aviation. They claimed first missile was into cockpit followed by gun runs and finally by IR missile. :rotfl2:

[Catfish]

^ Did you happen to overread this :

"Evidence Is Now Conclusive: 2 Ukrainian Government Fighter-Jets Did Shoot Down that Malaysian Airliner. No ‘Buk’ Missile Ground-Shot."

http://www.globalresearch.ca/german-pilot-speaks-out-shocking-analysis-of-the-shooting-down-of-malaysian-mh17/5394111

http://consortiumnews.com/2014/08/03/flight-17-shoot-down-scenario-shifts/

http://my.firedoglake.com/ohiogringo/2014/08/09/malaysian-press-ukrainian-fighter-jets-shot-down-flight-mh-17/

B.t.w. this was analyzed by US intelligence, not even russian.

I just wonder why the russians (being officially off the hook so to speak), now present evidence, that it WAS shot down by ground launchers. Why ? More deception ? Or do they just say it, because they have to negate anything the US say ?

[August]

B.t.w. this was analyzed by US intelligence

If you actually believe that I have a bridge in New York you might be interested in buying. :yep:

[ikalugin]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hTaCbmX4ffQ

[Betonov]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hTaCbmX4ffQ

I thought you were younger.

So, what is he saying :hmmm:

[ikalugin]

I thought you were younger.

So, what is he saying :hmmm:
I am not on the video.

The man (in the online interview with Sharij) claims that the commonly known -312- (so numbered) Buk-M1 TELAR, which allegedly shot down the Malasian airliner (also SBU - the Ukrainian security agency, claims that it was in the Separatist's hands at the time) was in fact in Loyalist's hands at the moment and was not operational (doe to a break down) and that he himself served on it.

[Skybird]

Take that with a grain of salt.

If he really served on that one system at that time, then either the man in the vidoe is a separatist, then his statement that the system was in hands of loyalists and/or was not operational, is not surprising. Or if he is a loyalist - why should he then point fingers at his own camp and let the separatists off the hook?

As I said back then: then the system was moved away soon after the crash, also tells nothing. Even if the owner of that system at that time indeed had not done the shot, he would have gotten out of Dodge due to the storm that meanwhile had formed up in condemnation, he would have rioghtly assumed that since he owns a BUK, he would be accused.

The whole story remains to be completely unclear, and only theories have been formed - all of them unproven.

[ikalugin]

Take that with a grain of salt.

Either the man in the vidoe is a separatist, then his statement that the system was in hands of loyalists and/or dysfunctional, is not surprising. Or if he is a loyalist - why should he then point fingers at his own camp and let the separatists off the hook?
He is a deserter thus indeed he may have a degree of bias.

In the interview he does not ascertain blame directly (he merely speculates in the end that it was possible that Ukrainian loyalists shot it down), but rather states that during the time period the specific TELAR (the 312) was not in Separatist's hands and was not operational due to a break down.

The reason why this is at all interesting is because SBU has stated that the TELAR was in the Separatist's hands and this is the only TELAR that is said to be in the Separatist's hands at the time (of the shooting). Thus if this was not case (as this man says) then there are no known TELARs in the Separatist's hands at that time, which implies that (most likely) the airliner was not shot down by them.

Nothing conclusive ofcourse, just interesting information worth investigating.

[Skybird]

Russia claism to have a new witness confirming that the plane was shot down by an Ukrainian SU-25 by mistake. The witness identifies the name of the pilot and his words after landing, claims the Russian report: "Wrong plane" And "it was in the wrong place at the wrong time".

Russian source, I know I know, and Russia Today is not one of the most unsuspicious there is... :) And still...

http://rt.com/news/216871-ukraine-military-mh17-report/

On a sidenote, a French author reiterates a theory that the Malaysian plane that went missing in the Indian ocean, had been hijacked, changed course at direction to Diega Garcia and was shot down by American forces when it started to violate defence parameters or the risk for a terror strike against DG was considered to be too high.

---

If both events would be proven to have happened like described above, the Kremlin's propaganda department will have three days of celebrations.

[Catfish]

The german airline captain who saw the wrecked parts, insisted that the jet was shot down with MG fire.
The parts have been shown in the newspaper and on the 'net, and look conclusive.
The black box has been stowed away, and the contents is, according to Frau Merkel, "top secret".

I take it they would luckily publish it and grant free access, had it been Russia.