Would we know?

[mapuc]

Yesterday me and my Little sister had a discussion about the crisis in Ukraine

She asked me if we would know if a war would start.

I said to her, that I really don't know. The diplomat is working 24/7 to get to some kind of solution that both side can agree on. However it seems like that one or both side is very determined on
"smacking the face on the opponent once and for all"

Again she said "But would we be informed if a war between us and them should start.

You mean NATO and Russia?

- Yes

That's a hard one. If a war should start in our daytime, we would if we are near a TV, radio, INTERNET or some other information, hear about it. However and here it's becomes scary

A war between NATO and Russia will in 99% become a nuclear warfare and nobody knows when in a war this going to happen.

Some expert say in the beginning, some say when one of the side is about to lose.

So, if the war starts at night and nukes is being used in the beginning or the war starts at some other time when we are away from getting information and nukes is being used in the beginning,

We will not know

I hope I'm wrong

Markus

[vienna]

This reminds me of a conversation I had in high school with some members of our debating club. One of the students said "Nuclear war is impossible because no one would want to be seen in history as the person who started a nuclear war"; I replied "If there is a full nuclear war, who would be around to write the history?"...

For the sake of your little sister, I hope we never have the occasion to find out...



<O>

[Wolferz]

If Russia and NATO start trading nuclear punches, you won't need mass media to find out about it.
Let's hope that cooler heads prevail. Nobody wins in a nuclear war. Nobody.

[mapuc]

This reminds me of a conversation I had in high school with some members of our debating club. One of the students said "Nuclear war is impossible because no one would want to be seen in history as the person who started a nuclear war"; I replied "If there is a full nuclear war, who would be around to write the history?"...

For the sake of your little sister, I hope we never have the occasion to find out...



<O>

That's one thing all these expert agree on, if nuke is being used even the small one on the battlefield it willl "run out of control" if it comes so far.

So let us hope that this crisis wil find a peaceful way.

Markus

[Oberon]

I don't think that NATO and Russia would go to war over the Ukraine, it's more likely that both sides are quietly thinking of ways to make it appear as they have 'won' without in fact having achieved their ultimate goals. It is most likely that a partition of Ukraine between NATO/EU and Russia will occur with Russia taking the east and NATO/EU taking the west. Both sides can claim victory, and both sides can spar verbally with each other without actually coming to physical blows.

If a war did break out, and admittedly I can't rule it out completely, then unless we invaded Russia directly I don't see them resorting to nuclear warfare, there's too much for them to lose. News would spread quickly that we were at war with Russia, netiher side could cover it up although it would be hard for news reporters to get much information from the front-lines as all the jamming and modern warfare equipment would play havoc with their gear, unlike in Iraq/Afghanistan when only one side was really up to date with EW equipment.

If it did come down to nuclear warfare...you're in Denmark aren't you? That means you'd get slightly less warning than us, so probably two to three minutes before the first missiles hit you, although since you don't have (that I'm aware of) any early warning radars like we do then you'd be reliant on NATO communications filtering through to you that missiles are inbound, by which time you'd have less than two minutes warning time. So probably just about enough time to utter a naughty word before you become one with the cosmos.

[Jimbuna]

I agree with Oberon but would add...if a full blown nuclear warfare situation did occur, I'd prefer it to be during my nightime sleep.

[HunterICX]

Both sides are currently playing the game trying to paint the other black through the media and to justify their actions in this crisis. Will it come to a war? well I hope not....anyone with common sense takes whatever has been said by both sides with a pinch of salt.

Though if the world doesn't want to dissapoint me and goes ''SMASH!'' well I still ''think'' that the Nukes are a last resort when it's clear for the other it has nothing more to lose and leaves this heap of earth with a bang taking as much with them as it can.

because going with nukes right at the start against someone that has as much as you do means you're going straight for the end credits.

Nuclear wargame...well this scene has it summed up pretty nicely.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6DGNZnfKYnU

let's hope they know it too for the sake of us and generations to come, however human history has shown us the depths we can sink to.

[Skybird]

If war means Warsaw Pact trying to conquer Western Europe by initiative, the nuke strikes would have been the overture already.

If war means NATO foolishly increasing its messing around in the Ukraine (what the Americans already seem to do since long time since they run a long-term strategy to deconstruct Russia itself) and sooner or later meeting the Russians and firefights erupt, then it can be the classical escalation spiral, with nuke strikes not at the beginning, but the end. But that is so unlikely that I would not lose sleep over it. Let'S not ignore that most European natiosn are not in the shape to wage a war against not just some punishable Arab banana republic, but a major military power.

If you look at it, the big mouthed announcements of NATO some time ago to boost its defences in the East, are paper tigers only. The Germans said they send 6 Eurofighters and a minesweeper with 45 men crew. However. NATO already has a standing interceptor patrol there, and the German fighters are not part of that - but are normal German training flights that will be shifted a bit to the East. They are unarmed. And possible will act as training dummies for the NATO CAP currently on duty. The mine sweeper is part of a NATO mine sweeper task force in the Baltic that is operating there since 40 years. There are no major changes to its regular training and operation schedules.

So much for NATO boosting defences in the East. :haha:

The sanctions and the fiscal turmoil will not stop the Russians form doing what they do, since they are aware that the US in the end aims at deconstructing Russia itself, which leaves them the choice of either allowing that, or to start to resist in all seriousness again. Some days ago I read a good German text on that it is a mistake to think this all is just an story that could be summarised by claiming it is just Putin. Putin and Russia nevertheless are not the same, although Western media idiotically give the impression. Russia is more than Putin, and there are more power interests and more basic national interest that just what Putin rules. We miss the core of the story if we say it is all just because Putin. I'm quite certain that if there would be somebody else, no matter who (except a government installed by Washington of course :) ) , we still would see more or less the same courses plot by Russia. From a Russian POV, their struggle is to not get strangled by America. For America, it is about maintaining the American global empire as long as possible. For that, Russia has to go down the drain, and alternative currencies to the dollar'S past role have to be prevented, no matter what, no matter the cost. With the latter they will fail, I'm sure, and there are indications that the probably have already understood that themselves as well, and now they play only the delaying game. The first thing they still try, with plenty of vigor.

Mapuc, tell your sister there will be no NATO-Russia war. Simply that.

[Catfish]

All good arguments, however Skybird said something about the US trying to deconstruct Russia, if not militarily.

Ok Putin is a autocrat, and there's not much democracy, however at the moment with weapon deals runnign wild all over the world (US and Germany some of the biggest b.tw.) and the russian mafia and oligarchs being just so held in check, which "president" other than someone like Putin would be able to govern a country at that stage ?

Russia is on the path to a civilian society, but it will take more time.
Capitalism has been embraced, and there is no communism left to talk about.

I mean if they are not a power to reckon with, no competition and no communism what is the hate about?
Because of St. Petersburg and they trying to break the petro dollar hegemony ?
Why does the US try to deconstruct Russia ?



OT:
It also seems since there is a "new" enemy, terroristic acts seem to be, errr, on the decline.
Strange eh? :03:

[mapuc]

Some one have said that it is thanks to the nukes we have had this long time of peace in Europe. Ok, we have had civilwar in Europe, don't know if that counts

As Jimbuna wrote he hope it would happens during his slepp, well that depends on where he lives, if he lives, like me far out on the countryside, he will first notice it when he wakes up from his beauty sleep or not so long time after

If a person lives downtown London or central in some other big English city...well..... end of story right away or not so long time after.

During daytime?

Got a scenario

A person is watching a movie, suddenly a notice runs over the moviescreen..Extra news in two minutes.....

This is BBC with extra news
We have unconfirmed information, that Nukes have be....PIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIPPPP

Markus

[Oberon]

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/c/c4/Square_leg.gif

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IKLSGLjcJJc


Basically.


But a BOOB (Bolt Out Of the Blue) attack is extremely unlikely, even in the Cold War days it was expected that there would be what was known as the 'Transition to war (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transition_to_war)' phase which would have occured before any attack took place, hostilities would have likely have opened with nuclear weapons, however these would have been medium to low yield and primarily aimed within Western Germany and Western European airfields, the response would have escalated from there using the traditional escalation ladder.
However, troop movements and intel gathering would mean that NATO (or indeed the PACT) would have been preparing themselves for any attack, including the 'Transition to war' plans.

[mapuc]

^ I'm not talking about a surprise attack, where one of the side suddenly decide to send everything he has in nukes against his upcoming enemy.

I'm talking or we(my Little Sister and me) was talking about a local or regional war turns into a nuclear warfare and if we would know if it happens.

By the way, the youtube link made me remember that movie, it was send on Swedish TV in the end of the 80's or the beginning of the 90's as a two or three parts movie.

Heck I'm absolutely no expert on all this we are discussing here. I have only my knowledge from documentary, and movies like Threads and The day after.

I truly hope they will find a peaceful solution, if not and it escalate into a full scale war between NATO/USA and Russia....then..

Maybe it's me who's pessimistic

Markus

[Oberon]

I think it's something that I wouldn't expand much thought into at this stage, neither Russia or NATO wants a war with each other, but equally neither side wants to be seen as weak in this situation.

Ukraine isn't really worth cracking out the nuclear weapons for, not in a regional basis, these days I doubt Russia would use them for anything except the defence of Russia itself, not including the little Oblasts like Crimea and the like. Likewise NATO would be loathe to use them unless Russia was knocking on the door of the Reichstag.

In my opinion, and admittedly I have been wrong in this crisis so far so even my best estimates I'm advising an unhealthy amount of salt be digested with, but I don't think Russia is actually going to act right now, they can sit back and wait, cool things off a bit perhaps if the economic sanctions are stinging them as much as the experts reckon they are, but continue to fund seperatists and stir unrest in the area. NATO will be loathe to bring the Ukraine on board, no matter what the Ice Queen of Kiev demands, and the EU will attempt to patch the holes in the sieve that is the Ukrainian economy. Then, when things have quietened down a bit and the world is looking elsewhere (maybe lil Kim will set off another nuke, so the world is watching him) then there will be a big uprising and Russia will move into eastern Ukraine.
Equally, they could go tomorrow, but in both scenarios they will probably stop at the Dnieper at the south and with a line reaching up to the north. They will not take Kiev, and they will leave the rest of Ukraine alone, they will have the economic heart of the Ukraine which is all they need in order to keep the Ukraine a nation greatly reduced in power and significance.
If and when they do this, NATO will probably sign an agreement with Ukraine to protect west Ukraine, and we will return to a Germany style East/West split, Skybird may even get his wall back, although I don't think the Ukrainian countryside will have the same characteristics of the Fulda Gap and the road to Hamburg. :03:

We have been through worse than this and come out the other side, look at the Cuban Missile Crisis, if ever there was a time to be worried, that was it. Heck, we've even scraped through potential disasters that we never even knew about (coming back to the threads title) like Able Archer '83, the 1995 Norwegian rocket launch and the stand-off at Pristina airport during the Kosovan war.

So, wait and see what Russia does next, then we can react, worrying now is not really worth it, not yet. :yep:

[TarJak]

I don't see it as much worse in effect than the Hungarian uprising in 1956.

We've been a hell of a lot closer to Armageddon than we are now.

[Armistead]

I think we could trade some blows or even limited war with Russia without nukes getting thrown. I think the difficulty is we would have to limit ourselves to dealing with Russia in the nation they evaded without directly attacking their homeland. If Nato has to do this..Russia will back down and leave, but it won't be over the Ukraine..

Unlike Jim, I don't wanna be sleeping, I want to see the blast and time my death with my last orgasm.....

[Admiral Halsey]

It's quite easy to tell if a nuclear war has started. If people aren't screaming in terror and running around like chickens with their heads cut off then a nuclear war hasn't started.*















*This excludes Los Angeles after the Lakers win a championship.

[August]

If I have to die in a nuclear war i'd like to go out like Slim Pickens:

http://news.3yen.com/wp-content/images/dr_strangelove_bombdrop-300.jpg

[mapuc]

I my self live so far from civilization that I wouldn't be one of them who's going to die in the first 24-36 hours

If it happens during my sleep I would perhaps wake by the noise in the distance and maybe I'll think it's the thunder and after I wake, maybe sleeping over, I will notice that there's no electricity at all. Then I will know what's happened.

If it happens during daytime and I'm at some kind of information source, well then i of course would know.

Before I moved to my new place I used to say this to my friends

If a nuclear war is on it's way, I'm taking my self over the oresund and downtown Copenhagen, 'cause I'm not interested in surviving a nuclear Holocaust. Now I live so from that area. Therefor I can't do anything than just wait for the...end...

Markus