What next for Putin?

[Herr-Berbunch]

Finland? :o

Finland is not a Nato member, meaning a Russian invasion would not be considered an attack against the alliance. The commander of the Finnish air force has said it has increased surveillance operations over the Baltic Sea in recent weeks.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/vladimir-putin-wants-to-regain-finland-for-russia-adviser-says-9224273.html

One thing I have noticed is the BBC newsreaders' pronunciation of Putin - before the Ukraine thing it was Pew-tin, now they all say Poo-tin. :hmm2:

Let's hope it's just some wild speculation from a not-very-important 'advisor'!

[Dread Knot]

You keep hearing how Putin wants to rebuild the Soviet Union. Taking Finland is rebuilding the Russian Empire. Considering the hell Ivan went through in just reacquiring parts of Finland in the 1940s, I wouldn't think interest would be strong on that front again.

[Wolferz]

A Crimean vacation.:shifty:

[Skybird]

Andrej Illarionov, if you google the name, you find some interesting detail about him, he certainly is no lunatic , but also, he obviously has a strong personal issue with Putin. Listen to him, he does not seem to deserve to be ignored - but take him with a grain of salt.

I see little signs, or none, that the Russians start to retake Finland.

German finance minister Schäuble yesterday compared Putin to Hitler. That was so very clever, since Schäuble is too high in political callibre as if Moscow can just ignore that. This useless comment will backfire against German investors in Russia, bet on it. Hope he enjoyed the seconds-long relief - it will cost others dearly.

[Jimbuna]

I doubt Russia would have as much trouble taking Finland as they did in 39/40.

The burning question must be...if Russia does invade, what will the west do about it?

[BossMark]

The burning question must be...if Russia does invade, what will the west do about it?
Nothing much the UK could about it as we have only few 1000 regular soldiers thanks to a certain party...............

[Admiral Halsey]

If he tries to invade anyone going after Eastern Ukraine is still the best bet. Only reason I could see him going after Finland is to make sure that the Karelian Isthmus is better protected.

[Jimbuna]

Nothing much the UK could about it as we have only few 1000 regular soldiers thanks to a certain party...............

I doubt it would be a boots on the ground campaign but more of an air and sea strike campaign (UK wise).

Worst case scenario of course.

[Herr-Berbunch]

Nothing much the UK could about it as we have only few 1000 regular soldiers thanks to a certain party...............

I read somewhere today that ever-neutral Switzerland has more MBTs than we do.

[Susexx]

Do not go crazy! Better look at the neo-Nazis in the Ukraine and in any legalization of homosexuals and pedophiles in Europe. Is this normal? And Europe is afraid of Russian late, had to fear in the Soviet Union.

[eddie]

Its just sabre rattling is all!

[Dread Knot]

Its just sabre rattling is all!

Indeed. I heard Obama and Putin had a conversation this weekend, and as always I'm sure it went well. :)

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-CDCU8UtMjco/UzNP-asf98I/AAAAAAAAOuc/mKmuLNgZhbo/s1600/Cartoon_Noogie_Noogie_Putin_Obama_Nate_Beeler_1.jp g

[AVGWarhawk]

The burning question must be...if Russia does invade, what will the west do about it?

Shake a big stick! :up:

[nikimcbee]

Indeed. I heard Obama and Putin had a conversation this weekend, and as always I'm sure it went well. :)

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-CDCU8UtMjco/UzNP-asf98I/AAAAAAAAOuc/mKmuLNgZhbo/s1600/Cartoon_Noogie_Noogie_Putin_Obama_Nate_Beeler_1.jp g


This. :haha::shifty:

He's not doing Finland, unless it's some sort of Red Storm Rising scenario.

Plus, those ferrets are pretty tough, so I wouldn't mess with them. Perkele!

[Admiral Halsey]

I read somewhere today that ever-neutral Switzerland has more MBTs than we do.

Of course they would, after all "Those who do not want war must have the means to make do so".

[Armistead]

Starting to feel like Hitler, the games then invasion. I don't think Putin is dumb, but he knows our will is limited and Obama is weak, so now is the time for him to act. Like Hitler, I think he may create a crisis, have his forces create an attack on himself and with excuse take Ukraine. Still, I think that is unlikely. I think he is saber rattling to keep Crimea without issue.

I dont see him going after the Baltic states, members of Nato and that would have to be war. The scary thing if this area flames up, we could be looking at our next WW...

Just to be safe I'm gonna stockpile coffee, sugar and creamer..

[Skybird]

I dont see him going after the Baltic states, members of Nato and that would have to be war.

It should be by the spirit of the treaty, yes. But by the letter, it must not be. Read article 5 carefully - it leaves a very wide open backdoor. I don't like that backdoor, but its there, unfortunately. Its a big misperception that any attack on a NATO country automatically would demand all member states to take military measures. Every state wanting to do so can opt out.

But Baltic and Finland currently I waste no concerns on. Turkey will give us problems sooner later, I think. The recent election shows that the Turks want to have a religious police state, and even massive corruption and nepotism does not scare them, it seems. Decades ago, they had a secular police state, and I think that was much less dangerous.

Let'S face it, NATO is not in shape to wage ground campaigns in defense of distant states like Finland or the far end of the Balkan, or the Crimea. Not against an enemy who is "slightly" stronger and potent than just Iraq. And whether Finland could be held - if one would come to its rescue - by mere air power alone, remains to be seen.

[Dread Knot]

One thing I have noticed is that the Baltic states all have tiny militaries and only spend a small portion of their GDP on their military budgets. They probably are not going to be able to do much to defend themselves, although since they are small (and flat) countries it would be difficult for them to defend themselves against Russia alone, even if they had large militaries and spent more money on them. Basically, they are relying on the rest of NATO to defend them if it comes to that.

Latvia spends $75 per capita on its military, Lithuania $76, and Estonia a whopping $195. For comparison, Russia spends $629 and the US spends $2060 per capita on their respective militaries.

I don't seriously think Putin has any designs on them, but if I feel if the Baltic states are relying on NATO to deter Russian aggression they're dreaming. They'd be overrun before we could lift a finger. Even if they had the means to blunt a Russian offensive, the cost would be crushing and heartbreaking.

[STEED]

I doubt it would be a boots on the ground campaign but more of an air and sea strike campaign (UK wise).

Worst case scenario of course.

We only got two ships and one of those is searching for that crashed plane. :har:

[Jimbuna]

We only got two ships and one of those is searching for that crashed plane. :har:

We could always borrow that carrier off the French...provided they also supply it with aircraft :)

[Spook27]

Anybody here play LOMAC? This is one of the scenarios we have war-gamed for years!

[nikimcbee]

Next for Putin?:hmmm: I vote Mr. Universe.

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2008/10/07/article-0-01672E34000004B0-465_468x560.jpg

[Sbygneus]

Putin has ashamed western policy. And thats sad. Such a bully with blood on his hands... how could it happen? He gambled with Crimea, and won.
You guys in the West dont know Russia as we know it in Poland, Lithuania or Finland. You think Russia is a country of funny speaking guys drinking vodka? I remember Russian tanks and soldiers on the streets of my small town in south/western Poland in the 80-ies. They are a real threat for us. We have some unfinished business.
I know we are little and lonely "dog" but we will make noise, someone must.
Thankfully, at least, Putin cant fool Poles any more. We hate him, he hates us, amen.
Not politically correct, but sincere

[Jimbuna]

More appropriately Mr. Puniverse :hmmm:

[vienna]

https://i.imgflip.com/79mbf.jpg



And here is a funny YouTube clip:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vwBZObfp24c


<O>

[Jimbuna]

http://s23.postimg.org/69a5dzcob/image.jpg (http://postimage.org/)

[Eisenwurst]

Putin has ashamed western policy. And thats sad. Such a bully with blood on his hands... how could it happen? He gambled with Crimea, and won.
You guys in the West dont know Russia as we know it in Poland, Lithuania or Finland. You think Russia is a country of funny speaking guys drinking vodka? I remember Russian tanks and soldiers on the streets of my small town in south/western Poland in the 80-ies. They are a real threat for us. We have some unfinished business.
I know we are little and lonely "dog" but we will make noise, someone must.
Thankfully, at least, Putin cant fool Poles any more. We hate him, he hates us, amen.
Not politically correct, but sincere


Very well said. Poland has always been a Brave, Gutsy Nation. I salute you.

[CCIP]

On the other hand, Russia isn't exactly a land of commie invaders either :-? I won't deny for a moment that many countries in that region got a very bad treatement from Russia, but there are also a lot of nationalist legends and propaganda nonsense there that doesn't exactly bear out facts. It's just very easy to keep people in line by creating a bogeyman myth, especially if the bogeyman is a nation of 150 million people. Right wing politicians in places like Finland and Poland have made whole careers out of it.
I would prefer it if people didn't mix dislike of Putin's terrible policies with outright Russophobia here.

[gordonmull]

Putin has ashamed western policy. And thats sad. Such a bully with blood on his hands... how could it happen? He gambled with Crimea, and won.
You guys in the West dont know Russia as we know it in Poland, Lithuania or Finland. You think Russia is a country of funny speaking guys drinking vodka? I remember Russian tanks and soldiers on the streets of my small town in south/western Poland in the 80-ies. They are a real threat for us. We have some unfinished business.
I know we are little and lonely "dog" but we will make noise, someone must.
Thankfully, at least, Putin cant fool Poles any more. We hate him, he hates us, amen.
Not politically correct, but sincere

I know enough of Poland's history to feel sick at what has been done to her even in living memory. I've had the deep pleasure of working with a number of Poles and I only hope that you all stay safe, live well and avoid any further wars trampling through your territory.

I'm so impressed with the standard of graduates that the Polish unis turn out that I sometimes feel like a primary school kid in comparison. :oops: I also think that if the Polish army had been better equipped we probably wouldn't have had much of a WWII, such was the temerity of her troops. The standard of the airforce pilots alone during WWII was amazing.

The line "Marsz marsz Dabrowski" has a sense of impending doom for those that have crossed Poland. It's just how it sounds to me, can't help feeling a certain sinister air when those words are sung. Remember there are other "little lonely dogs" in this world, Scotland included. A pack has many more teeth, don't you think? I don't envy you on your eastern border though. The Russians make the English pale into insignificance. (Sorry, Englanders, I know you like to be significant but this is a minority comment ;) so :O:)

[Sbygneus]

Thanks guys for assuring words. I know we are a bit paranoic in Poland about Russia, but what can we do about such a neighbour? Deep in heart I am pacifist, loving Russian literature, I even know a few Russians from St. Petersburg personally and they are all fine men and women. Why on Earth do they chose such guys like Putin to rule them?

[Jimbuna]

Pretty hard not to when there is only one name on the ballot paper :hmmm:

[CCIP]

Exactly, I think "choice" here is a stretch - and who else would they choose? Everybody seems to praise Yeltsin and Gorbachev as heroes that took down the Soviet system, but Russians hate them (quite rightly, but not entirely for the right reasons). Gorbachev may have had little choice in the position he was in and with time being against him, however Yeltsin did much a) set up the current imbalance in favour of the executive office, now gladly occupied by Putin; b) systematically destroy both old-school socialist and Western-style democratic opposition; and c) discredit the notion that Russia could be cooperative with the West with its own interests (like not having a massive economic disaster) also being served. The chaos of the 1990s in Russia, which I had the "pleasure" of living through, is why Russians today "chose" Putin.

While the West was busy celebrating the end of the Cold War and gloating over Russia's defeat, putting little effort into helping with the massive socioeconomic disaster that was happening in the country, the Yeltsin that they seemed to praise for being such a "democrat" was busy destroying all viable opposition and setting the stage for someone like Putin. When the time came, there was noone else left to choose.
Rather than act all shocked, perhaps Western politicians and the people who chose them should ask themselves why they treated the post-Soviet Russians as a defeated enemy who deserved punishment and suffering rather than meaningful assistance. I thought we learned something from Germany and Japan?


On a lighter note...

http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-news-from-elsewhere-26882664

Zhydenko adds that Darth Vader might run for the presidency in Russia, where he has received extensive media coverage. "They already have little green men," he says, referring to Russian troops in the Crimea region. "Such a commander-in-chief would be appropriate."

[Tribesman]

Everybody seems to praise Yeltsin and Gorbachev as heroes that took down the Soviet system, but Russians hate them (quite rightly, but not entirely for the right reasons).


Do they?
From the get go Yeltsin was widely viewed as a very dangerous fool.
As things developed he became viewed as a very dangerous fool who was really just a puppet worked by Putin.

[Herr-Berbunch]

People, when mentioning Yeltsin, keep forgetting to add the word 'drunken'.

[Wolferz]

We're sorry that the USSR imploded. Not our fault.
Unfortunately, we in the US are still running down the same dead end track. We're next.

Putin is your new Tsar and you folks are just letting it happen to you all over again.
I wish you great luck.
Perestroika bby.:sunny:

[CCIP]

People, when mentioning Yeltsin, keep forgetting to add the word 'drunken'.

:haha:

To say that he was Putin's puppet in any way is exaggarating. Nobody knew Putin back then, and Putin was largely a nobody and an opportunist who took up reins as the head of a power structure that was already there. Yeltsin created a constitutional presidency that gave the office extraordinary power (it helps that he forced the constitution through by shooting up the parliament with tanks when they refused to sign it). All that was needed was simply someone less drunk to occupy the office. All of the powers that Putin has today were already there for him to use. Although it's tempting to think of Putin as an autocrat and great manipulator, he's not. He's just the "right man for the job". It was only 3 or 4 years before he came into the spotlight that he was a mid-level crony in the St. Petersburg city government - his boss mayor Sobchak (later assassinated) had a sort of mixed relationship with him (he was his benefactor in some ways, didn't like him in others), and he was stuck doing jobs like signing small business licenses. Including one for my dad's and my grandma's business. Fate just dealt him a good hand and, like many unlikely Russian leaders, he's used it to his advantage. He would have remained a nobody without people like Sobchak and Yeltsin - and although he eventually outmaneuvered both, he really did not have much on them at the start.