US seeks 'tough' N Korea sanctions

[Jimbuna]

It is most gratifying to see China supporting the US on this issue....hopefully Russia will soon follow suit.


The US has tabled a UN resolution - agreed with China - for sanctions that would target North Korea's diplomats and cash transfers.
Washington's UN ambassador Susan Rice said they would be "some of the toughest sanctions" the UN had imposed.
Li Baodong, China's UN envoy, said a "strong signal" had to be sent following North Korea's third and most powerful nuclear test last month.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-21673332

[Oberon]

Is there much left to actually sanction the DPRK with? :hmmm:

[Ducimus]

S'cuse me while i not take North Korea's saber rattling episode number 93445234569993888 seriously.

[Glock30Eric]

Just send a B-52 with loads of big macs and dump those macs over there and then we will win a war without a gunfire.

[Oberon]

Heck, rather than use Big Macs you could use all the meat that's been pulled over here in Europe because of the horse meat scandal. I doubt they'd mind and it saves wasting the stuff.

[Glock30Eric]

Heck, rather than use Big Macs you could use all the meat that's been pulled over here in Europe because of the horse meat scandal. I doubt they'd mind and it saves wasting the stuff.

Clever move, bro!

[Jimbuna]

Heck, rather than use Big Macs you could use all the meat that's been pulled over here in Europe because of the horse meat scandal. I doubt they'd mind and it saves wasting the stuff.

^ :har:

[Oberon]

The DPRK has scrapped all non-aggression pacts it has made with the ROK, closed its hotline with Seoul and shut down all border crossings.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-21709917

Nothing really earth-shaking there (pardon the pun), and as usual they've rattled the sabre about exercising their right to pre-emptive nuclear strikes, yadda yadda yadda.

So, now we sit back and wait for a couple of months until they either come back to the table, or open fire at something.


Just another day on the Korean peninsula. :dead:

[Stealhead]

What makes the DPRK dangerous is that its military is very loyal and they spend the overwhelming majority of GDP on military spending. The DPRK has nothing much but it does a very large and very dedicated military and many units are very well trained.

What I am more concerned about is how will other nations in Asia react if anything serious ever did happen between North and South.The lack of stability could be taken advantage of by other nations or cause tensions to rise between Korea's regional neighbors.

Sure it has been tit for tat for many tears now but tit for tat right over top a powder keg the resulting threat to stability of Asia makes Korea a very important region.

[Oberon]

Chinas biggest concern is a refugee problem. If the DPRK goes to war, most of its armed forces will be pulled south, which means the northern borders will be very loosely guarded, which means more and more North Koreans will look at China and its prosperity and make a run across the border. This sudden mass influx of Koreans with no jobs, no education and no real use other than menial labour into a Chinese economy which is already starting to lose steam would be a big blow to the PRC, as well as requiring extra government intervention to feed these starving people.
When the DPRK begins to lose the war (not if, because its equipment, although well trained and large in number, is hopelessly outdated and underpowered compared to even the ROK army on its own, let alone with American involvement), then the number of refugees will increase dramatically as the Kim regime loses its grip on power which is always just a rifle bullet away from being transferred to the military.
At this point the PRC will probably be forced to step in, remove the Kim government (due to ill health) and put in a government of its own. Then there'll be the mess of having to repatriate all the North Koreans who fled across the border and who will do ANYTHING rather than return to Pyongyang.

In regards to other Asian nations, I can't see it having much of an effect on any other nations other than perhaps Japan which might face the occasional misguided DPRK rocket, either way the JSDF is pretty well equipped for shooting down North Korean rockets if it needs to. In Japan itself, it's hard to tell how the public would react, naturally the government would be fully behind any US mission in Korea, and US naval vessels and Air Force craft will be using Japan like a giant immobile aircraft carrier...but those who want the US base removed from Okinawa will probably not be swayed by the war, and there's very little chance that anyone will think about altering Article Nine of the Japanese constitution over it (although I can see it being mentioned if tensions between Japan and China get any higher than they already are).

South Korea is also a hard one to read, the populace are split into three groups, those who like the US being there to help defend against the North, those who don't really care, and those who think the US should leave. Unless the DPRK pulls a real rabbit out of its hat and manages to capture Seoul or cause as much damage to Seoul as it has threatened in the past, then I can't see the attitudes changing too much...in fact, the anti-US side may either accuse the US of forcing the DPRK into a war through sanctions and/or claim that the ROK can beat back any DPRK attack by itself (which, to be honest...looking at the tech they have now, it's not that far from the truth...the ROK is on a par with the DPRK in terms of firepower now, and soon it will eclipse it...perhaps this is what is spurring the DPRK on to create its nuclear arsenal, because that's the only firepower advantage it can achieve over the ROK?)
The populace of Seoul are well drilled against air attacks (not that many DPRK aircraft would make it across the DMZ intact after the first wave [perhaps not even the first wave]) and missile attacks (again, quite a few of these will probably be shot down before they reach their targets) so they will likely develop a 'blitz' mentality and continue life as normal...a little bit like the citizens of Tel Aviv whenever the PLO starts launching.
Russia has links to the DPRK, but I don't see them as being in a position either militarily or politically to do anything other than watch.

At the end of the war though, the status quo will return, the DPRK will be knocked out of the war game for a couple of decades (at least), the PRC will have a strong hand in the direction of the DPRK (expect to see a more conciliatory North Korean government) but reunification will remain an unachieved goal...because, simply put, it would destroy the ROK, it would make the problems in reunifying Germany look like a walk in the park.

Beijing knows this, Moscow knows this, Seoul knows this, Washington knows this...unfortunately, the only person who doesn't seem to know this is in Pyongyang...:/\\!! Or perhaps he does, and he's playing a fine game of brinkmanship...we will see...


EDIT: Forgot that the DPRK and Russia DO share a land border, albeit a very small one. Russia might accidentally 'lose' some weapons over the border, but honestly if that was found out (and with US surveillence it probably would be) then Russia would be absolutely slated in the international theatre, so I think that they will sit this one out and leave the ball in Beijings court.

[Jimbuna]

^ Excellent assessment Jamie :cool:

[Skybird]

Just send a B-52 with loads of big macs and dump those macs over there and then we will win a war without a gunfire.

People with taste would consider that to be mass murder.

:O:

[Skybird]

Chinas biggest concern is a refugee problem (...) so I think that they will sit this one out and leave the ball in Beijings court.

Yep. Just one thing really is worrying, or two.

First, the chance that NK shells the south with dirty grenades or bombs, shells with radioactive material to contaminate the region. Second, the NK seems to turn increasingly desperate, and that is what makes such regimes even more ruthless and not caring for any future: because they have nothing to lose.

Primitive weapons and no gasoline to fuel planes and tanks - okay, but the AK-47's bullets still kill when hitting and the old iron bomb still explodes. A war still would call a tremendous blood toll, on both sides. I only say: get a map and check the topography. Mountains. Hills. Plenty of woods. The right place to play the old cowboys and indians in the jungle type of game.

Maybe that path cannot be avoided, nevertheless. Ball is in the North's field. And I am against making concessions again.

What a war would mean in financial burdens for an already bankrupt America, I do not even mention.

[mookiemookie]

The DPRK has scrapped all non-aggression pacts it has made with the ROK

Just like they did in May of 1994, April of 1996, February of 2003, July of 2003, August of 2006 and May of 2009.

http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/northkorea/2009/05/28/46/0401000000AEN20090528004200315F.HTML

:roll:

[STEED]

Why take up room with these NK plonkers? :03:

Any one read a good book on the economic mess lately? :DL

[Oberon]

Yep. Just one thing really is worrying, or two.

First, the chance that NK shells the south with dirty grenades or bombs, shells with radioactive material to contaminate the region. Second, the NK seems to turn increasingly desperate, and that is what makes such regimes even more ruthless and not caring for any future: because they have nothing to lose.

Primitive weapons and no gasoline to fuel planes and tanks - okay, but the AK-47's bullets still kill when hitting and the old iron bomb still explodes. A war still would call a tremendous blood toll, on both sides. I only say: get a map and check the topography. Mountains. Hills. Plenty of woods. The right place to play the old cowboys and indians in the jungle type of game.

Maybe that path cannot be avoided, nevertheless. Ball is in the North's field. And I am against making concessions again.

What a war would mean in financial burdens for an already bankrupt America, I do not even mention.

:hmmm: It's entirely possible that they could do such a thing, but their artillery range is fairly limited, they don't have any standard artillery that can reach Seoul, only missiles. So what they would hope to achieve with a dirty shell attack is beyond me, extend the DMZ perhaps?
Certainly it would cause alarm and concern, and a large scale retaliation which would cause a lot more damage to the DPRK than the DPRK inflicted to begin with, even if the clean up would be easier.

The DPRK is in a corner, this is true, but Kim is not a Muslim, he knows that as long as he keeps control over the military then he has a cushy number. It is most likely this concern which has prompted him to conduct the nuclear and missile tests, in order to gain approval from the military and cement his position. The military know that if they start a war then it's all over for them, they can see the guns of the ROK, the ships and drones of the US, they have access to the internet, they know that their only hope of continued survival in the future is the nuclear bomb. If they gain enough nuclear weapons then the south will not invade them. When they are able to miniaturise the nuclear weapons enough to put them on a missile, then things get a little more tricky because it comes down to how much damage they can inflict knowing that the retaliation will be total. However, right now their nuclear weapons are about the size of Fat Boy or Little Man, they have to be dropped by aircraft, and no aircraft is getting a millimeter across the DMZ without getting a SAM shoved up its exhaust pipe.

Now, the terrain is good for jungle warfare, however they have to get across the DMZ first, which has a mine in every other square foot, which has countless killzones marked and remarked. A simple few radio codewords and the southern part of the DMZ becomes a sea of fire. It would be a massacre, and although the DPRK will cross the DMZ through weight of numbers alone, it will not be able to repeat its success in the last Korean war by driving south to Pusan, it just doesn't have the mobility, nor does it have the airpower to cover it.
It will be open season for anything airbourne with infra-red sensors, although I admit, the infantry will be hard to find, it would be like Vietnam in that respect...but such an approach in warfare would not achieve much, and certainly wouldn't capture Seoul any time soon.

The casualty count on the DPRK side would be ridiculously high, and eventually the ROK would gain the initiative and push north, which would lead to a massive crisis in the DPRK leadership.

In regards to America, well I can't say, but honestly bankruptcy or not, if you don't want Iran or the DPRK to have the bomb, then America is your only hope, Europe won't do anything about it, Russia and China won't do anything about it...so you'd better hope that the US isn't bankrupt because they're the only people willing to step up and do the job that you want doing. :03:


If I were Kim though, I'd use those nuclear weapons in a similar manner to which we used our mines in the opening of the Battle for Messines Ridge. Would open up the DMZ quite well by blasting several kilotonnes worth of holes in it. Wouldn't even need to tunnel all the way to the other side of the DMZ (although it would be advantageous to the DPRK if they could detonate the nukes UNDER the border forces, but the risk of detection before detonation would be too high) just plant them in the middle in several clusters and detonate to clear a way through the minefields. Use the artillery to clear a way through the defending forces and then send in the shock forces to break through what's left.
However even this plan (which relies on a lot of things going right for the DPRK) wouldn't be enough to capture Seoul, because the ROK would just fall back and commence massive attrition and the USAF would join in the fun and games shortly afterwards and that would be the end of the war.

Whichever way you wargame it, the DPRK doesn't get anywhere near as far as it did in the last Korean war, in fact, in many circumstances it doesn't even get as far as Seoul.
I won't write the DPRK military off completely, like you say, a bullet is a bullet, it will still kill, however the fact that is for every one DPRK bullet, the Allied Forces can return a missile worth fifty bullets. It will be bloody, but at the end of the day, the biggest blood will be shed by North Korea...and that's why they won't attack, they will do every single thing they can up to that point, but they will not initiate all out war...because they will lose, and defeat will mean the end of their comfortable lifestyles, which although they are becoming harder with each passing sanction, are still much better off than the people below them.

No, in my opinion, they are dragging this out until they can miniaturise a nuclear weapon, and then they will sit back and say "Right, well, we've done it...now let's talk about arms levels." All this posturing is just mirroring the internal power struggle between the new boy and his military.

[Oberon]

Just like they did in May of 1994, April of 1996, February of 2003, July of 2003, August of 2006 and May of 2009.

http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/northkorea/2009/05/28/46/0401000000AEN20090528004200315F.HTML

:roll:

Yup, business as usual on the Korean peninsula. :03:

[Ducimus]

Just like they did in May of 1994, April of 1996, February of 2003, July of 2003, August of 2006 and May of 2009.

http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/northkorea/2009/05/28/46/0401000000AEN20090528004200315F.HTML

:roll:

Exactly! I was there for there for what i'll derogatorily call the "kimchi two-step" in 94 and 95. I went to the ROK expecting to die in a war. I'm simply not gonna get that worked up again, so color me unimpressed with the DPRK's latest tantrums. Insert "Boy who cried wolf" reference here.

[geetrue]

All we have to do is spray agent orange on their cabbage, but the way they eat sour cabbage ...

they probably wouldn't notice it :woot:

[Oberon]

All we have to do is spray agent orange on their cabbage, but the way they eat sour cabbage ...

they probably wouldn't notice it :woot:

They'd probably be grateful for the cabbage! :03:

[Cybermat47]

Only just heard about this yesterday. I don't care what the analysts say, Kim Jong Un is crazy enough to launch nukes at the US. Even if they don't hit, it will have been a hostile act against the US. And they don't even need to hit the US to hurt the enemy, just trolley a nuke into South Korea. And seeing as my country's at war with these maniacs, I'm pretty creeped out by all this.

[Ducimus]

Only just heard about this yesterday. I don't care what the analysts say, Kim Jong Un is crazy enough to launch nukes at the US. Even if they don't hit, it will have been a hostile act against the US. And they don't even need to hit the US to hurt the enemy, just trolley a nuke into South Korea. And seeing as my country's at war with these maniacs, I'm pretty creeped out by all this.

You can get worried about it if you want to, but these shennanigans are par for the course when it comes to the DPRK. They've been doing it for decades. North Korea is primarily doing two things.

1.) The grandson (whom i shall call "Little Kim") is establishing his rule as a (Whatever) Leader to the people and military brass. He just took over, his rule isn't cemented, so he has to show off and prove his worth. Same BS in 94/95 when the "Son of Kim" took the reigns.

2. ) Playing the brinksmanship game (again) to get something. It's always the same, they bang the war drums until we start offering stuff so the DPRK stops banging the war drums. Give them 10 years (give or take), and they'll do it again. And again, and again, ad nausem.

EDIT:

I really wish I disobeyed directives and took more pictures while i was in the ROK. The whole peninsula is geared for war. Some of the built in prepairations would blow some of your minds. Expressways that double as emergency runways, clear cuts maintained along northern perimeter fences to allow for an unobstructed fields of fire. Even drop down segments in perimeter fences, featuring (what im assuming was) vulcan mini guns you'd expect to see mounted in aircraft - all facing north, and i was seeing these preparations as far south as Taegu and Kwang Ju.

[Skybird]

So what they would hope to achieve with a dirty shell attack is beyond me,
The same logic that Assad followed at the end. Gaddafi. Hitler.

Do damage. Leave burnt earth. Suvive as long as possible. Keep the grab to power as long as possible. and if falling, pull all world down with them as well.

"If this is my end, I will drown the world in fire, blood and ashes."

[geetrue]

Ya'll are laughing at north Korean having done this before, but surely you error by thinking this new young ruler is not serious.

Remember he is young and Kim Jong Un is taking these new sanctions seriously enough to threaten the USA with his real missiles and his real nukes ...

never mind that they can't really make it across the Pacific ocean with any certainity of landing within 50 yards of the target, as our own submarine launched missiles would land.

He actually thinks everyone listens to him and he knows this is true in his own country, because he makes them laugh on cue and he makes them cry on cue.

I for one think we need to take him seriously, meaning our state department, and let him win this little cry baby scheme.

Use this as a way to get the truth into his fellow citzens and offer a sit down as long as the world can watch on world wide media and news people can ask any question and get answers to long held
suspicions of neglect in his country.

Sit down like real men and talk without squirming out on the truth of why these sanctions are against North korean in the first place.

Set him up and let him answer or crawl back to the safety of lying
to his own citzens.

The truth is the light North Korean needs :yep:

[Skybird]

Yes, let's sit together and talk it over, together united we can get this thing solved, it just needs reason and good will.

Really.

Have a little faith.

WHAM.

Ooops. Another Neville landing hard on the floor of rock-hard reality.

[Ducimus]

Ooops. Another Neville landing hard on the floor of rock-hard reality.

That's what the DPRK will be saying if they actually follow through on their threats for once. In the ROK, there are 60 years worth of prepositioned assets, hardened positions, readiness training, and technological advances.

Believe it or not, there are some who believe the reason we're still there isn't to keep the north rolling into the south, but to keep the south from rolling into the north.

Kim would have the kimchi beat out of him, and they know it. That's why their beating the nuclear drum. Thats his best card on the table, and as long as he has it, he gets what he wants. If he plays that card, he'll lose everything.

[mookiemookie]

http://i.imgur.com/RUgs0cy.jpg

[Jimbuna]

http://img685.imageshack.us/img685/582/kimjongunx.jpg (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/685/kimjongunx.jpg/)

[Skybird]

Without giving further source information, a German newspaper today referred to "an American expert" who should have mentioned this theory: the recently started NKorean satellite from all beginning on did not emit any signals, communication or otherwise. Usually it is described as being a technical malfunction, a failed experiment. But the satellite is big enough to hold a 10 kt nuclear warhead. The "American expert" also explained that 10 kt are almost optimal to cause an EMP that would have sufficient energy to hit a whole hemisphere of the globe and knock all electronics, computers, comm systems out. That"American experts" also should have said that the satellite currently passes the American region in direction from south to North - and that the American early warning radar detection for space observations towards the south of the US is weak, since the primary defences are oriented to other other directions. If this "American expert" exists and said these things, than he seemed to imply that the NKoreans could sneak in a stealth attack by lowering the orbit during its south-to north approach on the US, bypass any possible satellite defence systems, and detonate for an EMP at lower altitude over the centre of the US.

I am undecided on what to make of this story and currently form no opinion on it, I only take note of it. But something like this certainly is a much more likely scenario to attack the US than to assume somebody launches ICBMs at it, especially when the attacker has technological short legs only to run on.

If the story would be real and the claims hold ground, this satellite must be taken out. Immediately. No matter the costs, no matter the effort, no matter the political fallout. Accepting a knife at your throat with the knife held by a desperate, irrational megalomaniac nutjob who has lost contact with reality and is desperately craving for attention and imagines that his survival is at stake, is no option.

[Oberon]

:hmmm: It's certainly a possibility, but what purpose would it serve the DPRK? It would knock continental US for six, this is true, but it would do jack about the ROK and the US forces in Japan and Korea and would not do much to stop a US carrier group from steaming into Korean waters and flattening anything it saw. Furthermore, since it would be pretty obvious (since you can bet that satellite is being monitored) who conducted the attack then it would be a carte blanche for the US to wipe the DPRK leadership off the planet.

No matter which way around you look at it, the end result is the fiery destruction of the Kim regime, and I can't see Kim doing that, his situation is dire, yes, but he is still well fed, well protected and in power, and his people are cowed enough not to rise up against him. The only wild card is the military, and that's most likely who all this sabre rattling is aimed at pleasing, once Little Kim has the military on side then his rule is fairly cosy.

[Skybird]

Oberon, you again judge the insane man by standards of ratio and reason. ;) They have nothing to lose.

The West has to lose everything.

An EMP over the US would take out stock markets. Companies. Communication. Infrastructure. Powerplants. Traffic. Server farms. Hospitals. Silicon Valley. Airplanes. Satellite ground control.

Military comms must not even be the primary target!! And probably are not.

Not only is such a card a nice trump in case the US or SK do not play ball and even play start war or tighten sanctions so far that it really strangles NK.

It also is a nice blackmail scenario. Because obviously the Us has much much much much much more to lose in this scenario. You can wipe out all of NK afterwards - and still it would in no way compensate the US for the losses it suffered at home, and financially and economically and in lives. It would be a different world afterwards.

Plus the global consequences of a EMP strikes against the US. The global finance system. Internet. Satellite control. It would create chaos all around the globe. The more primitive the development state of a nation is, the less it would have to lose in this. But the first world - go figure.

That's why I said to let such an EMP satellite fly untouched - if it is there - is no option, can be no option, never shall be an option.

[Oberon]

The snag is, dare I say this, Little Kim is not insane. He has had a very sheltered upbringing and lives in a situation where no-one dares to say no to him, however he is not insane. If he was insane he would have just invaded the ROK by now, no, he's not the brightest person in the world, not by a long shot, but he's not insane. He knows that he's one revolution away from being hung or shot or whatever punishment the KPA would give him, and furthermore, he cannot be seen as weak so soon into his leadership. So if he tries to seek peace talks or nuclear disarmament talks...well, he would suddenly fall ill and a new face would appear. It's not Kim Jong-Un that runs the show, it's the military, and the military aren't stupid, what they want is to have that nice cosy position of power that guarantees them and their families food and comfort while the peasants starve outside in the cold, they do not want to risk that position.

All that sanctions against the DPRK do are starve the common people more, because the government will take more from them and horde it for itself, after all, when was the last time you saw a dangerously thin KPA general? :hmmm: So, for the generals, and for Kim, war simply isn't worth it, their window of opportunity closed sometime in the 1970s and the only way they can keep a credible military threat to South Korea is through the threat of nuclear arms.

I'm aware of the costly implications of an EMP over America, I read 'One Second After' by William Forstchen which covers the subject in a grimly realistic manner (worth a read if you haven't already), however this sort of attack would most likely only be launched if the DPRK government is on the verge of collapse because the retaliation would be swift and merciless, and Kim would be dead no matter what option he took.

Of course, the problem is no-one actually knows when the DPRK government is on the verge of collapse...just as we had very little warning about the wall coming down. At the moment the DPRK is in a corner, yes, but not far enough to lash out that far and risk complete annihilation. Some shells at an island, yes, perhaps the sinking of another ROK vessel, but not a nuclear based attack.


EDIT: And truth be told, there's a more than likely possibility that someone has already taken a look at it, the US military sends up classified unmanned drone ships into orbit on a fairly regular basis, one of them may well have taken a look at the satellite and scanned it already. Heck, the reason that the satellite isn't sending out any signals could be because it was killed shortly after it reached orbit.

[Skybird]

Insane - maybe not clinically, but in a way, insane nevertheless. But I do not rule out clinical symptoms as well. Paranoia can lead to personality changes - so intense that you could mistake the person for a born psychopath.

The man rules like a god-.emperor. Every wish and desire is read from his eyes. One snip of his fingertips, and people die, without anyone asking questions. That can get you disconnected from reality a bit, I would say.


NK has a long record of coups it got away with, and the Us not reacting. The hijacking of the USS Pueblo. The killing of Us soldiers at the border. The assassination of half the southern cabinet during state visit outside SK. The many times when big mouth and wild threads gave them the corn deliveries they wanted. The many opportunities of live fire military provokations. The shelling and sinking of Southern navy units. And so on. I mean - they still are at war. Technically, the West says, and implies that means it is not really so, is just a formality. But they take it as reality. And they are right. T

Last summer I read the South said that if the North ever threatens the South with nuclear attacks, the South would attack the North preemptively. The North went wild, and it went so far the Obama for the first time since a very long time send a nuclear submarine into a southern harbour. Which enraged the North even more, since it did not work as usual. The US did not shy out this time, and the Chinese did not help them either. The US also sent a bigger than planned fleet into naval excercises, and stocked it up with even two B2. Later the submarine was pulled back after the North clearly started to grasped for air and turned red int he face.

What I see the Northern Füher like is a man that has lost contact to reality and who possibly even believes what he claims in would threads. And that is very dangerous - fools falling for their own follies. He has missed that this time it seems neither the Chinese nor the US are buying the bluffing show. And as I indicated above, the North not always only bluffed, but took martial action for sure - assassinating half of the southern cabinet in Rangoon (I think) is an act of war. The Führer is irritated since the game does not run according to the old playbook this time, apparently, and since he lacks alternatives diplomatically and militarily if he does not want to endanger his grab to power and the stability of the regime, he pushes even harder in despair and expect the resistance to break when suing just more brute force. But he is cornering himself, and that makes a man finding himself in a situation with decreasing numbers of options. We still do not know much about this new Führer, and so we do not know to what degree he indeed believes himself to be the son of heaven, whose coming was indicated by unicorns in the Korean forest and the finding of dragon eyes in the mountains, as North Korean news agencies have claimed last year. A man who lets mass execute mourners becasue they do not mourn long and intense enough when pushing their button, hardly is a mentally healthy person.

Was Nero insane? Hard to say, but usually we call him a mad dog, don't we.

Be cautious to not assume Kim to be insane in a way. I see him as extremely disconnected from reality, extremely brutal, he feels the wall in his back and sees his options vanishing. All that can push a criminal thug and bastard like him over the edge. We just have seen it in Syria. Libya. Before: third Reich. And so many other places and times.

[Oberon]

A mad thug, yes, I think we can agree on that. I have no love for the DPRK regime, that's for certain, and while I see where you're coming from, I honestly don't think he would risk it all unless he was sure he could win, like Hitler with Barbarossa. Furthermore, I think that even if Kim Jr gave the order to invade the ROK, the military would suddenly become very deaf, or Kim Jr would suddenly develop an illness and have to stand down.

When Kim Jong-il came to power it took him a while to consolidate his power with the military, and during that time there were numerous border incidents, including the shooting down of a US helicopter in 1994 and several hundred KPA troops crossing into the DMZ repeatedly in 1996.
But yes, since then the US and the ROK has taken a tougher stance on the provocation of the DPRK, because now they can afford to, the ROK has a lean mean fighting force and no love for the DPRK, as Ducimus correctly pointed out, being a US soldier in the ROK it can sometimes feel as though you are there to stop South Korea from invading North Korea, not the other way around. They are just itching to lay down some hurt on Pyongyang. Of course, if they did defeat the North it would be a pyrrhic victory for them because the reunification of Korea would send Korea into an economic crisis that would make the EU crisis look like a storm in a tea cup.
So war is not in the best favour of either side, which is why there hasn't been one. Just brinkmanship, but yes, even that is starting not to work now which is why they're going a little bit further with each event, seeing just how far they can push it before someone smacks them back into line.

I honestly can't rule out the DPRK doing something incredibly stupid, there simply isn't enough information on the leadership, regime and stability of both in order to extrapolate an answer with any degree of accuracy. However, if they did do something stupid, incredibly stupid...it would be the last thing they would ever do. China isn't going to rush into Pyongyang to save the day, if the PLA did enter the DPRK it would be to replace the leadership, not to fight the Americans, and the ROK and US are well equipped to hold, defeat and counter any DPRK attack, the only thing stopping them from marching to the Chinese border would be politics and logistics. If Kim Jong-Un doesn't know this, then you can be damn sure that some of his generals do, although they'd never dare mention it to Little Kim, but they might find ways to stop him from making a stupid mistake, or once the mistake has been made, punishing him for it.

[geetrue]

A mad thug, yes, I think we can agree on that. I have no love for the DPRK regime, that's for certain, and while I see where you're coming from, I honestly don't think he would risk it all unless he was sure he could win, like Hitler with Barbarossa.


So war is not in the best favour of either side, which is why there hasn't been one. Just brinkmanship, but yes, even that is starting not to work now which is why they're going a little bit further with each event, seeing just how far they can push it before someone smacks them back into line.

I honestly can't rule out the DPRK doing something incredibly stupid, there simply isn't enough information on the leadership, regime and stability of both in order to extrapolate an answer with any degree of accuracy.

However, if they did do something stupid, incredibly stupid...it would be the last thing they would ever do.

If Kim Jong-Un doesn't know this, then you can be damn sure that some of his generals do


+ You two guys are silly (Skybird and Oberon) your as silly as the guy that came up with the theory that the USSR has planted a nuclear device in a stainless steel box dropped off a ship while visiting in New York or San Diego harbor with a denoting device on the next panamian registered ship, take your pick, entering the harbor during a pre shooting war.

Hey, wait a minute that silly guy was me ... :arrgh!:

back to my other personality where's kiwi when you need him anyway?

[Jimbuna]

@Sky

I read your previous post regarding the 'American expert' with much interest but I honestly can't see NK carrying out what would be national suicide. Even if they were initially successful there are a great many military assets around the world the US could call on to destroy them in return and I can't see the Chinese allowing NK to spark what might well turn into a global conflict.

[Catfish]

My take on the 'situation' is that North Korea needs and wants a peace treaty.
From all they have learned (still other nations act exactly like that, when you look at the middle east) they need a position of strength, for negotiating, so the new leader invents all kind of serious threats to then be able to dictate terms - certainly a bit overdone and 'not from this world so-to-speak' if you look at it from a contemporary point of view, but not essentially different from what nations did in the early 20ieth century.
First the rocket-space program with the tumblin' projectile and now threats like that.
And not so different from what all the strict right-wingers in the west also still believe and how they behave :)

[Catfish]

“Since the United States is about to ignite a nuclear war, we will be exercising our right to pre-emptive nuclear attack against the headquarters of the aggressor in order to protect our supreme interest.”
Try a really fun experiment... say that sentence out loud and insert "Iraq" in place of "the United States" and pretend that it's 2003 again.


The North Koreans just stole the US's lines :woot:

[Skybird]

I honestly don't think he would risk it all unless he was sure he could win,
And there lies the problem: if he is thinking that for sure, then we all will have plenty of fun. And he does not give me the impression of a reasonable, responsible man with a strong sense for truths and realities. He has cornered himself. And like a dog feeling threatened may bite the hand that tries to help it, he may start something stupid in the personal conviction of that he indeed could win it.

And this dog in NK has rabies, that is for certain.

[Skybird]

@Sky

I read your previous post regarding the 'American expert' with much interest but I honestly can't see NK carrying out what would be national suicide. Even if they were initially successful there are a great many military assets around the world the US could call on to destroy them in return and I can't see the Chinese allowing NK to spark what might well turn into a global conflict.
It seems the Chinese are totally clueless abiout their former ally. They move away from him, if you have not noticed.

The US can retaloiate, yes. But even if it wipes out NK, it will get no compensation by that for the fincial and econiomic losses and the deep fall of civilization in North America if it gets taken out by an EMP.

Yoiu also,m like Oberan indicated, base on that NK uses your kind of rationals and reasons. You said you cannot "see" (=imagine). Well, I cannot imagine why so huge parts of then Wehrmacht were loyal to Hitler even when it was clear to them that they would destroy Germany, and why they still defnded him and followed his orders in Berlin when the Russians marched in.

Kim is neither a gentleman, nor is his ratio running by the same ideals and goals, then ours.

I think you refuse to imagine that possible scenario outlined by that "American expert", because you find it too horrific. In other words, you made a choice. ;)

Well, the one man's horror of a bloodbath is the other man's spread on the bread.

[Oberon]

And there lies the problem: if he is thinking that for sure, then we all will have plenty of fun. And he does not give me the impression of a reasonable, responsible man with a strong sense for truths and realities. He has cornered himself. And like a dog feeling threatened may bite the hand that tries to help it, he may start something stupid in the personal conviction of that he indeed could win it.

And this dog in NK has rabies, that is for certain.

The primary unknown though is who holds the power in the DPRK, is it Kim or is it the military? Given how long it usually takes a new leader in the DPRK to consolidate their hold over the military (it took Jong-il about three to four years IIRC) then some indicators point towards the military holding the reins and Kim Jr being little more than a figurehead who makes speeches, and orders but the generals work around him rather than with him.
If this is the case, then the military would be likely to have a more pragmatic view of events, seeking limited exchanges of firepower (which they can afford, given that if you kill one DPRK soldier there are about six more ready to take his or hers place) in order to prove political and military might, rather than to spark an all out conflict.

Still, time will tell, either way the DPRK is not going to be seen in Busan anytime soon, that much is fairly sure.

[TLAM Strike]

As to how the DPRK military would react to Kim Jong-un if he wanted to wage war. Some North Korean JOs have lived their entire lives confined to military bases (from youth to now), so much so that they do not know how to live in the outside word, some that defected didn't understand things like the value of currency is based on what is printed on it, not its size, or how to act around women.

It's unclear how far in to North Korean society this regimented isolation goes, however the leadership of the DPRK is growing older; thus we will start to see people who have lived in it moved up to greater positions over the coming years. How they will react to foreign pressure is also unclear.

[Onkel Neal]

The snag is, dare I say this, Little Kim is not insane.

I disagree. Not being an expert on the clinical definition of insanity, but the little fudgeball can't be of normal mind. I'm not sure anyone in the country is well-adjusted, considering the decades of psychological torment the leader has inflicted on the people. I say Little Kim is nuts, because he sure isn't behaving rationally.

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/dam/assets/130309110325-02-north-korea-0309-c1-main.jpg

Pyongyang scraps armistice amid heightened saber rattling (http://www.cnn.com/2013/03/11/world/asia/south-korea-military-exercises/index.html?hpt=hp_c1)

All this BS may be to squeeze more conditions from the West, as some will say, but I wouldn't bet against another NK offensive. This is looking a lot like 1950. But this time Tomahawks and drones will stomp the commies flat. :know:

Edit: Insane - maybe not clinically, but in a way, insane nevertheless. But I do not rule out clinical symptoms as well. Paranoia can lead to personality changes - so intense that you could mistake the person for a born psychopath.

The man rules like a god-.emperor. Every wish and desire is read from his eyes. One snip of his fingertips, and people die, without anyone asking questions. That can get you disconnected from reality a bit, I would say.


Whoa, I just read this far into the thread, I agree with you, Sky. This looks like the kind of actions that Saddam was taking as Bush ramped up the US war machine--Saddam was nuts, he did nothing to get clear of the danger, he just kept egging it on. And he ended up swinging from a rope. I hope lil Kim ends up the same way. And maybe those poor people in NK can begin to live like human beings again.

[Skybird]

Psychopathy and intellectual brilliance are not mutually exclusive. A psychopath can be very intelligent, and can be extremely rational in calculating his ways and options. Often they are, because psychopaths are masters of manipulating others. They do it without hesitation or remorse.

The problem is his motives, and his lack of care for others, his lacking empathy for other living beings, his lack of scruples and morals. That are the things that make him a psychopath - not the absence or presence of intellectuality, rationalism, sense of realism.

And the population: decades of brainwashing, propaganda and hunger, fear and being intimidated and also feeling threatened by the outside of NK as well, do not pass you without leaving marks in your mind. Impossible.

[mookiemookie]

The NK military lives in a completely secluded way, and they have no idea what normal social interaction is. They're completely cut off from society and women, and especially foreigners. How do you expect them to be able to interact on a foreign diplomacy level?

The fat bastard is completely out of his depth.

[geetrue]

In a brief study of the North Korean vs the South Korean problem unfolding ...it is easy to see that the upper hand is with the North if knowledge is an edge that is.

I speak of the knowledge they have of our military and our leadersWe seriously don't know enough about our enemy to try and out guess their next move.

True our people here (USA), the population of South Korean and the world itself knows more about the suffering and trials and tribulations of the North Korean peoples themselves than we know about the leadership of the North.

We know the leaders lie, cheat and steal from their own people that much we know.

We know that the leader is young, but is he impulsive?Here is an interesting find about the evil axis of North Korean/Iran and chose between Pakistan or Syira for the third party.

If you have time take a look at what they have been up to and see what I mean by they know more about us than we know about them.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/claudiarosett/2013/03/09/the-iran-north-korea-axis-of-proliferation/Indeed


, the recent Scientific Cooperation Agreement between North Korea and Iran bears an alarming resemblance not only to North Korea’s 2002 nuclear deal with Syria, but to a 1993 missiles-for-nuclear-technology bargain between North Korea and Pakistan, according to John Tkacik, director of the Future Asia Project at the International Assessment and Strategy Center.

Tkacik points as a reminder to his written testimony to the House Committee on Foreign Affairs last year, in which he described how during a 1993 trip to Pyongyang, the late Pakistani prime minister Benazir Bhutto, with the apparent backing of China, reportedly delivered “critical nuclear data” to North Korea, in exchange for North Korean missile components and designs.

Out of these webs of proliferation activities, it is the Iran-North Korea connection that has been emerging as the most virulent, immediate threat. As business partners, they are a particularly neat fit. Iran, with its visions of empire, has oil money.

Cash-hungry North Korea has nuclear technology, an outlaw willingness to conduct tests, and long experience in wielding its nuclear ventures to extort concessions from the U.S. and its allies. Both countries are adept at spinning webs of front companies to dodge sanctions. Both are enriching uranium. The stage is set for North Korea, having shopped ever more sophisticated missiles to Iran, to perfect and deliver the warheads to go with them.

[Oberon]

One would hope that the CIA has a few KPA officers on its payroll, but the DPRK must be one of the hardest nations to operate spies in. Certainly no information can be made public about the internal workings of the DPRK otherwise the safety of the informants would be put very much at risk.

But yes, as an old saying goes "If knowledge is power, then to be unknown is to be unconquerable" although in terms of military force, I'm not so sure that works for the DPRK, but when it comes to second guessing them, you might as well just flip a coin.

[Jimbuna]

I'd be more inclined to return to the negotiating table with them and do so publicly...once negotiations break down (probably inevitable) draw a line in the sand in full view of the world and if they cross it, start taking out military targets via the usual rocket and missile weapons means (non nuclear).

The minute his armed forces start hurting I would hope they'd turn on him and sue for peace or a resumption of sabre rattling only.

I'll get my coat.

[Wolferz]

I would be asking them (DPRK) if they can grow rice and cabbage in radioactive soil?
The combined nuclear arms of the world could conceivably separate the Korean peninsula from the mainland. I think even China would feel obliged to deliver a few of their own, along with every other super power, if they decided to launch a single ICBM at anyone.

[gimpy117]

I would be asking them (DPRK) if they can grow rice and cabbage in radioactive soil?
The combined nuclear arms of the world could conceivably separate the Korean peninsula from the mainland. I think even China would feel obliged to deliver a few of their own, along with every other super power, if they decided to launch a single ICBM at anyone.

As if. All you would need is one nuke on Pyongyang

[geetrue]

Needed more research, but when I looked at the date on this report I couldn't believe that ten (10) years had gone by.

The report even states what I believe is a major problem.

Simply this, "we do not understand our enemy"

http://faculty.washington.edu/sangok/The%20Bush%20Administration%20and%20North%20Korea. htm

The Bush Administration and North Korea’s Nuclear Program
Revised as of April 6, 2003


Shortly after the DPRK expelled IAEA inspectors, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld remarked pointedly that “the United States is perfectly capable of fighting on two theaters at once”—

signaling to North Korea that they shouldn’t take advantage of the USA’s preoccupation with Iraq. CIA Director George Tenet sent a tremor of worry through the United States news media when he testified to the Senate Armed Forces Committee on February 12th of this year (2003) (the day before the IAEA meeting that found North Korea in material breech of the NPT) that North Korea has nuclear armed missiles capable of reaching the West Coast of the United States.

(This “news” actually recycled the 1998 Rumsfeld report that was itself highly exaggerated) Within a few days of Tenet’s testimony the North Koreans announced the resumption of missile tests that had been on hold since 1998.



Note: this study was done ten years ago and is still true today


People sometimes ask me, “Why are the North Koreans doing these terrible things.” It is not easy to answer in one or two sentences. These issues have been simmering for a long time, and so they can be correctly understood only in historical context.

The activities of North or South Korea, however, rarely make the news except when a crisis emerges. Thus, the little day-to-day events that precipitate the crises are rarely on people’s minds. Much of what the North Koreans do is a reaction to US actions or policies, but most of the actions and policies of the US that disturb North Korea are either not reported in the media, or are buried in policy documents that only wonks—in addition to the North Koreans—ever read.

The result of these conditions is that much what the North Koreans do that in fact is rational and systematic from their point of view seems erratic and foolish to even a well-informed American.

In addition to the problem that the US policies to which the North Koreans are reacting are seldom widely know outside the community of policy specialists, is the problem that the solution to North Korea issues can only be successful if it is in harmony with the wants and desires of North Korea’s most powerful neighbors—China, Russia, Japan, and South Korea.

As the US media seldom report extensively on how the Chinese, Russians, Japanese, and South Koreans understand the world­—and frequently even specialists lack insight in this area—ordinary citizens lack crucial information they need to assess whether proposed solutions to the North Korean nuclear issue are realistic or not. When it comes to expectations of what China should do to solve the North Korean issues, misconceptions of Chinese views of the world and their influence on North Korea are especially pervasive.