Doomsday comet may hit Mars

[TLAM Strike]

Looks like Russia got off easy.

http://up-ship.com/blog/?p=19134

C/2013 A1 was discovered January 3, so it has not been observed for terribly long. However, current orbital projections for October 19, 2014, has it passing within 0.0007 AU (63,000 miles). But due to uncertainties, it could pass as far away as 0.008 AU… or it could impact. If it does, it’ll hit at an impressive 35 miles per second.
And in this case, I really, *really* hope that it hits. Because it’ll hit *Mars,* (http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2013A1;cad=1#cad) not Earth.With the current estimate of the absolute magnitude of the nucleus M2 = 10.3, which might indicate the diameter up to 50 km, the energy of impact might reach the equivalent of staggering 2×10¹º megatonnes! This kind of event can leave a crater 500 km across and 2 km deep.more info:

http://news.discovery.com/space/astronomy/could-a-comet-hit-mars-in-2014-130225.htm

[Takeda Shingen]

Prayers to the Maritian people.

[u crank]

Heads up Curiosity......heads up.

[kiwi_2005]

2014 Earth invaded by aliens:doh:

[AVGWarhawk]

They would be illegal aliens. Or New Earthlings. Depending on your view.

[Oberon]

It'll be one of the biggest astronomical events since Shoemaker-Levy went to play in Jupiter:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/5d/Jupiter_showing_SL9_impact_sites.jpg/250px-Jupiter_showing_SL9_impact_sites.jpg

The biggest fragment of that hit Jupiter with a force estimated at six million megatons.

It'll be a very interesting event if it does hit because we have so many probes around and on Mars that we can get some good data from it. Poor Curiosity might get a bit sand-blasted if its still going, but it'll capture footage that'll make Michael Bay sit back and go 'Dayum'.

Then, of course, the Martians will HAVE to invade Earth to get extra resources. :dead:

[August]

The comet is carrying an alien life form that will find conditions on mars to be excellent. It will assimilate our rover and satellite technology and create a race of super-intelligent alien bears which will come to earth and try and wipe us out in order to take all our honey, picnic baskets and large breasted women for their evil experiments.

But we'll be our typically cagey human selves though and figure out a way to defeat them at the last possible moment. Possibly by giving them a virus, either biologically or electronically (or both) but not until they have really messed up our planet and wiped out a majority of it's inhabitants. We will however be able to unlock the secrets of their alien bearish technology which will be wicked awesome for those of us who survive.

And life goes on... :)

[Stealhead]

The comet is carrying an alien life form that will find conditions on mars to be excellent. It will assimilate our rover and satellite technology and create a race of super-intelligent alien bears which will come to earth and try and wipe us out in order to take all our honey, picnic baskets and large breasted women for their evil experiments.

But we'll be our typically cagey human selves though and figure out a way to defeat them at the last possible moment. Possibly by giving them a virus, either biologically or electronically (or both) but not until they have really messed up our planet and wiped out a majority of it's inhabitants. We will however be able to unlock the secrets of their alien bearish technology which will be wicked awesome for those of us who survive.

And life goes on... :)


Who knows maybe an event like this has happened before.

Not to sound all "Ancient Aliens" funny hair dude and all.
http://i1162.photobucket.com/albums/q527/datsun260zyojimbo/Giorgio-Tsoukalos-is-such-a-thing-even-possible_zps623cf1a8.jpg

[Reece]

The comet is carrying an alien life form that will find conditions on mars to be excellent. It will assimilate our rover and satellite technology and create a race of super-intelligent alien bears which will come to earth and try and wipe us out in order to take all our honey, picnic baskets and large breasted women for their evil experiments.

But we'll be our typically cagey human selves though and figure out a way to defeat them at the last possible moment. Possibly by giving them a virus, either biologically or electronically (or both) but not until they have really messed up our planet and wiped out a majority of it's inhabitants. We will however be able to unlock the secrets of their alien bearish technology which will be wicked awesome for those of us who survive.

And life goes on... :)What an imagination!!! :eek:

[Mork_417]

End of Mars party, my house! :woot:

[gimpy117]

Heads up Curiosity......heads up.

if it does hit it will be a hell of a chance to study comet impacts

[Sailor Steve]

What an imagination!!! :eek:
Actually I think I already saw that movie. :O:

[AndreasMeyer]

Will this be observable?

[Oberon]

Will this be observable?

Unless you're on Mars or have a pretty powerful telescope my money is on no.

[Jimbuna]

Keep the tracking radars powered up and on the lookout for a sudden influx of illegal aliens.

[Betonov]

Unless you're on Mars or have a pretty powerful telescope my money is on no.

NASA has, I hope they catch it :)

[TLAM Strike]

Unless you're on Mars or have a pretty powerful telescope my money is on no.
Well this Comet maybe 10 times bigger than Shoemaker-Levy 9, and a little bit smaller than Hale-Bopp. If we are just talking about just the out gassing it should be visible; if not by the naked eye then by a simple telescope or binocs.

If it hits Mars that blast would on the order of 20 Petatonnes. I'm going to guess and say you will see Mars visibly brighten with just the naked eye. If you got a cheap telescope like I do you are going to see some serious rearrangement of the planet.

[Wolferz]

Ack Ack Ack Ack Ack.

[Oberon]

If it hits Mars that blast would on the order of 20 Petatonnes.

:o:o:o:dead:

That kind of blast energy....I can't even comprehend it. :o

[Dowly]

If it hits, I'm curious to see what kind of images Curiousity sends back.

Might be valuable info for understanding what kind of damage we are talking about
if one of those things would hit the Earth. :hmmm:

[GT182]

With the current estimate of the absolute magnitude of the nucleus M2 = 10.3, which might indicate the diameter up to 50 km, the energy of impact might reach the equivalent of staggering 2×10¹º megatonnes! This kind of event can leave a crater 500 km across and 2 km deep.

One that size could possible destroy Mars and we'd be in a world of poop. Just imagine the pieces of Mars heading our way. Not a good thought. Tho extinction for us does come to mind.

[Oberon]

One that size could possible destroy Mars and we'd be in a world of poop. Just imagine the pieces of Mars heading our way. Not a good thought. Tho extinction for us does come to mind.

Naaah, it'd need to be something like a thousand times bigger to destroy Mars. Something like the size of Venus or Mercury might do it, or it would at the very least create enough debris to dramatically increase the possibility of an impact event on Earth. Planets are very difficult to kill. Very difficult...unless you have a Death Star, or access to a Black Hole.

This makes for good reading:
http://qntm.org/destroy

Plenty of things can destroy life, or forms of life on a planet, or radically change the ecosystem, but those events are contained to the planet it occurs on unless it's some sort of space ship, or a pulsar.

What this will likely do is radically change the climate patterns of Mars, certainly it will be difficult to see the surface of Mars for a while after impact, it will also generate a rather large hole and strip the surface clean for a very large distance surrounding the impact point. It will also make Michael Bay feel very very very small and impotent. Likewise Roland Emmerich.

However, the most likely outcome is that it will make a very pretty passing light show for the Curiosity rover and sail right past Mars and back out into space.

[Dowly]

I'll just leave this here (thanks to HunterICX who linked me this ages ago):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rjECbQ1r-k0

[Madox58]

if one of those things would hit the Earth. :hmmm:

Oh GREAT! Give Bubblehead something else to start a wackadoodle thread about!
:haha:

[eddie]

I hope they trun Hubble towards Mars at that time, think of the pics it could get!

[Mork_417]

Not sure if i will be able to see anything or not, but I'm going to try. Got a twelve inch scope, just hope Mars will be visible to me that day. :hmmm:

[Synthfg]

I hope they trun Hubble towards Mars at that time, think of the pics it could get!

I think half the telescopes in the solar system will be pointing at mars on that day if there is better than a 1/10 chance of an impact

Assuming they are not directly in the firing line MRO, Express, Oddysy, Curiosity and Opportunity should have some epic views of the blast and after effects

[Jimbuna]

I think half the telescopes in the solar system will be pointing at mars on that day if there is better than a 1/10 chance of an impact

Assuming they are not directly in the firing line MRO, Express, Oddysy, Curiosity and Opportunity should have some epic views of the blast and after effects

No doubt about that :yep:

[clive bradbury]

If an object of similar size ever hits earth, it won't do too much damage. After all, most intelligent life here has already been and gone...

[Jimbuna]

If an object of similar size ever hits earth, it won't do too much damage. After all, most intelligent life here has already been and gone...

Well, to be fair, has it ever existed in Stoke? :O:

[GT182]

Oberon, what if by chance it knocks Mars out of it's orbit? 310 mlles across is one hell of a big piece of rock. And Mars isn't as large as Earth. :03:

[Raptor1]

Oberon, what if by chance it knocks Mars out of it's orbit? 310 mlles across is one hell of a big piece of rock. And Mars isn't as large as Earth. :03:

I don't know if the mass of that comet is known, but if I'm not mistaken accelerating Mars enough to achieve Solar escape velocity or decelerating it to the point it will de-orbit into the sun will require orders of magnitude more kinetic energy than 20 petatons.

[Oberon]

Oberon, what if by chance it knocks Mars out of it's orbit? 310 mlles across is one hell of a big piece of rock. And Mars isn't as large as Earth. :03:

AFAIK the size of the comet hasn't actually been determined yet, so I'm not sure where you got 310 miles from, unless you mean the crater, which is not the same size as the impactor. A comet 310 miles wide coming in with the same speed of the comet in question would make a crater that is (quick calculations on impact website) a thousand miles across, but would probably still not do anything to Mars other than perhaps change the rotation speed by an infinitesimal amount, so a Martian day might go from being 24 hours 37 minutes to 24 hours 41 minutes. The tilt of the planet might alter a bit too, it's not particularly hard to alter axial tilts of planets, Earths has moved a couple of times recently, usually because of major earthquakes, the effects of such small shifts are usually pretty minor, if there are any at all.

No, this comet will create a large hole, a big fireball, a large shockwave and a massive debris cloud which will make things a bit dark underneath it for a while, but Mars itself will keep on spinning, just as Earth has kept on spinning despite being hit by objects potentially bigger than that comet.

Another thing to remember, that although the chances of an impact event on Mars are at 1 in 1250 (using the Monte-Carlo method), the current path of the comet puts it passing Mars further away than the recent Asteroid that shot underneath our comms satellites. :03:

So, it's one to watch, but it's 50/50 whether it'll actually impact or not, and if it does miss then there's still a chance of an impact further down the line depending on the orbital cycle of the comet. It could be a sight for our childrens childrens childrens....providing a more nearby comet or asteroid hasn't landed on US by then. :O: