5 views on the Chinese-Japanese confrontation

[Skybird]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-21290349

I am surprised that the aspect the Japanese commentator mentions last, the longterm strategy of China to turn the whole Chinese sea into a surveillance zone while denying any surveillance there to other, potentially hostile forces, has gotten zero coverage by media and public analysts. The Phillipines recently have allowed to get intimidated and blinked, retreating from Chinese bullying. I wonder if all ASEAN pact countries will follow that example, or as a closed faction will have the balls to confront the Chinese claims. As history teaches, appeasement and falling back from bullying opponents only encourages them to push for even more.

Fishing grounds and resources to me are secondary only to explain the Chinese motivation. It is indeed the longterm strategic perspective of military dominance there (what the Japanese writer calls A2/AD) that drives them. From a chessplayer's POV, the order of steps cannot be the other way around.

[HundertzehnGustav]

Only looking at a map it becomes clear that from the russian peninsula in the north to a distance not far off Midway, New Guinea in the south, then to a border with india... that is what they want to control. that is what they consider their front lawn.
and all the neighboring countries are only bystanders. They either play game or get eaten alive.

I hope india and australia wake up to that.
how would the aussies stop a Million men?

[Kazuaki Shimazaki II]

I am surprised that the aspect the Japanese commentator mentions last, the longterm strategy of China to turn the whole Chinese sea into a surveillance zone while denying any surveillance there to other, potentially hostile forces, has gotten zero coverage by media and public analysts. The Phillipines recently have allowed to get intimidated and blinked, retreating from Chinese bullying. I wonder if all ASEAN pact countries will follow that example, or as a closed faction will have the balls to confront the Chinese claims. As history teaches, appeasement and falling back from bullying opponents only encourages them to push for even more.

To be fair, no one was really willing to bail the Filipinos out either, and it is unrealistic to expect them to stand up to China alone. Everybody only thinks about short-term, tactical relationships with the Chinese and the ChiComs are exploiting this advantage.

[Jimbuna]

I see this situation as having put the US in a tricky position....they obviously need to maintain good relations with both countries but should the situation escalate, the Chinese know the US will side with the Japanese.

The next decade in the area should prove very interesting.

[Oberon]

The next decade in the area should prove very interesting.

I believe the proper phrase is 'May you live in interesting times' :03:

[the_tyrant]

remember that Asian people want to "save face". Thus what I think will happen is, there are negotiations happening behind closed doors right now. However, both sides want to display strength, and do not want to cave in.


expect it to be resolved without a war in a few years with little to no press coverage.

Asian politics is less "for king and empire" and more compromise and negotiation. Politicians posture, and pretend to be hardline, but I'm willing to bet that it all gets resolved behind closed doors.

[Skybird]

You forget that there is plenty of nationalism on both sides, revanchism on the Japanese side, and on the Chinese side the party meeting growing self-reliance by the people and needing to distract from its own corruptness a bit - by creating a foreign demon. It also is about resources, and as said before: the longterm strategy of China not to just save face, but to dominate.

Its not the relatively weak China of the past one is dealing with.

The Japanese, on their behalf, until today take - justified - Flak fore not fully apologizing for their role in WWII, and still defending parts of the war crimes their military was conducting, and glossing over their Imperialism. In this, they dealt with their past very very differently than the Germans did.