Dissapearance of Flight 19 theory

[GoldenRivet]

For the one or two of you that may be unfamiliar:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flight_19

From the article...

At 18:04 Taylor radioed to his flight "Holding 270, we didn't fly far enough east, we may as well just turn around and fly east again". By that time, the weather had deteriorated even more and the sun had since set. Around 18:20, Taylor's last message was received. (It's also been reported that Taylor's last message was received at 7:04 pm.) (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flight_19#cite_note-5)He was heard saying "All planes close up tight ... we'll have to ditch unless landfall ... when the first plane drops below 10 gallons, we all go down together." (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flight_19#cite_note-NatGeoMayell-1)[/URL]At the same time, in the same area. SS Empire Viscount, a British-flagged tanker, radioed that she was in heavy seas and high winds northeast of the Bahamas, where Flight 19 was about to ditch

additionally...

Earlier, as it became obvious the flight was indeed lost, several air bases, aircraft, and merchant ships were alerted. A PBY Catalina (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flight_19#cite_note-NAN73-2) left after 18:00 to search for Flight 19 and guide them back if they could be located. After dark, two PBM Mariner seaplanes originally scheduled for their own training flights were diverted to perform square pattern searches in the area west of 29N-79W. PBM-5 BuNo 59225 took off at 19:27 from Banana River Naval Air Station, called in a routine radio message at 19:30 an was never heard from again at 21.15, the tanker SS Gaines Mills reported it had observed flames from an apparent explosion leaping 100 ft (30 m) high and burning for 10 minutes. Captain Shonna Stanley reported unsuccessfully searching for survivors through a pool of oil. The escort carrier USS Solomons (http://toolserver.org/%7Egeohack/geohack.php?pagename=Flight_19&params=29_N_79_W_) also reported losing radar contact with an aircraft at the same position and time.[URL="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flight_19#cite_note-NAN73-2"]


It as at this point it is my belief that what Captain Shonna observed was not the crash of BunO 59225, but rather the aftermath of the crash.

I believe that Flight 19, at this point erroneously headed due east despite being unknowingly very near the East Coast of Florida. as it was common instruction to any aircraft becoming lost in the training area to head west i believe that some of the more experienced pilots of Taylor's flight broke formation and headed West while the rest - sticking with military discipline - proceeded east. At this point several garbled transmissions were overheard from flight 19 but meteorological interference rendered these transmissions unintelligible. Its possible that this brief exchange of messages were those transmissions between the flight leader and the 2-3 aircraft which broke formation. Those who proceeded East ran out of fuel after perhaps another 30-40 minutes flying time, ditched into the sea and their aircraft sank in deep water.

Those who broke formation and headed west were headed directly for the coast of Florida toward the Daytona Beach area; and on a clear, sunny day would have been almost within sight of the continent depending on their altitude.

However, it was now well after dark and the visibility diminished due to weather after sunset.

I feel it is possible that the fire and massive oil slick and debris observed by the SS Gaines Mills could have been the remnants of a mass mid air collision between the now homeward bound portion of flight 19 and BuNo 59225. this mid air collision being the cause for the unexplained explosion of BuNo 59225.

Compounding the problem of locating the 5 avenger bombers on the sea bed is that searchers have been looking for 5 intact aircraft within a close proximity to one anther when in fact they should (based on this theory) be looking for 2-3 intact aircraft in one area of relatively deep ocean... and fragments and small pieces of 2-3 Avengers and 1 Martin Mariner in another area of relatively shallow ocean. These two crash sites could be separated by a span of up to if not more than 100 nautical miles.

[Stealhead]

Your theory sounds feasible to me a mid air collision between several Averages would cause a fairly large explosion.

It would also explain why they have never found anything hundreds of scattered parts would be nearly impossible to find unless you where looking within days of such an accident.With ocean currents and such those parts could be hundreds of miles from where they originally landed.

Remember the TWA 800 the Navy divers where able to find something like 90% of that 747 of course in that case the aircraft was still in mostly two large sections and then hit the water and the divers where looking for the parts hours after the crash.With a mid air explosion completely blowing the aircraft/s apart you'd have much more scattering. and then decades of ocean currents and fishing nets and such it would be nearly impossible to find much of those TBMs.

[August]

I could see two aircraft crashing into each other but three or more? Sounds unlikely to me. However even if it did happen it would be unlikely to completely destroy all three aircraft. That takes high explosives and I don't believe flight 19 were carrying torpedoes which is the only source of HE that I could think of.

[GoldenRivet]

I could see two aircraft crashing into each other but three or more? Sounds unlikely to me. However even if it did happen it would be unlikely to completely destroy all three aircraft. That takes high explosives and I don't believe flight 19 were carrying torpedoes which is the only source of HE that I could think of.

in this scenario the Martin Mariner would have been a flying gas can... and it would have been a collision between 3-4 aircraft. the majority of which would have been in tight formation

think of the italian demo team the tricolore mid-air... that involved multiple aircraft and was pretty spectacular

[TLAM Strike]

That takes high explosives and I don't believe flight 19 were carrying torpedoes which is the only source of HE that I could think of.
Would TORPEX even explode in a collision? I thought it needed a detonator to set it off? :hmmm:

[DouglasWestfall]

The size of the explosion indicates a large amount of fuel -- at that time most of the TBM's tanks were near empty. This would indicate it was the PMB Dumbo that exploded.

The author of Discovery of Flight 19 Jon F. Myhre, used unpublished Navy records, reports, weather charts, current charts, and some 50 sightings, plus exclusive interviews. He’s pinpointed where each plane went down, discovered three crash sites and pulled one up from the ocean floor. Flight 19 should not have happened — and was doomed before they ever left the tarmac.

The irony of Flight 19 is that none of the men died within the infamous Bermuda triangle. Three crash sites have been located and one aircraft has been raised from the sea.

Taken from, Discovery of Flight 19
Douglas Westfall, historic publisher, Specialbooks.com

[Cybermat47]

WELCOME
TO
SUBSIM
DouglasWestfall!

[Oberon]

The size of the explosion indicates a large amount of fuel -- at that time most of the TBM's tanks were near empty. This would indicate it was the PMB Dumbo that exploded.

The author of Discovery of Flight 19 Jon F. Myhre, used unpublished Navy records, reports, weather charts, current charts, and some 50 sightings, plus exclusive interviews. He’s pinpointed where each plane went down, discovered three crash sites and pulled one up from the ocean floor. Flight 19 should not have happened — and was doomed before they ever left the tarmac.

The irony of Flight 19 is that none of the men died within the infamous Bermuda triangle. Three crash sites have been located and one aircraft has been raised from the sea.

Taken from, Discovery of Flight 19
Douglas Westfall, historic publisher, Specialbooks.com

Nice, but partially incorrect, the aircraft that Jon F. Myhre located and recovered did not match the serial numbers of the aircraft from Flight 19. They were, in fact, aircraft unfit for maintenance which had been disposed at sea.

Welcome aboard nevertheless. :salute:

[Dowly]

But wasn't 59225 tracked by radar at the time it went down? Surely they would've picked up other planes? :hmmm:

[GoldenRivet]

But wasn't 59225 tracked by radar at the time it went down? Surely they would've picked up other planes? :hmmm:

yes, the martin mariner being a larger aircraft was being tracked, however it is possible that due to meteorological anomalies and the limitations of radar in 1945 that the aircraft of flight 19 - especially if the formation split might have gone undetected.

@Westfall, do you have links? I'd really love to visit that information

[Sailor Steve]

WELCOME ABOARD! :sunny:

[Dowly]

yes, the martin mariner being a larger aircraft was being tracked, however it is possible that due to meteorological anomalies and the limitations of radar in 1945 that the aircraft of flight 19 - especially if the formation split might have gone undetected.

That is a possibility.

Though, reading the radio transmissions, nothing seems to indicate the flight split up. :hmmm:

[GoldenRivet]

That is a possibility.

Though, reading the radio transmissions, nothing seems to indicate the flight split up. :hmmm:

there isnt.

however there is a garbled exchange of radio messages between the aircraft in flight 19 and nobody knows what was said, only that it originated from the flight.

my hypothesis is based upon the assumption that these unintelligible radio transmissions were the conversation between the pilots as the aircraft split formation.

in no way am i saying this IS what happened, Im just presenting it as a plausible scenario.

[GoldenRivet]

On the map below, the radio transmissions of Flight 19 were radio triangulated to be within the 100 mile circle labeled "7" they were at this time broadcasting that they were westbound but that Lt. Taylor was again turning East.

the direction of flight at the time of the broadcast points ominously right at the crash site of the Mariner rescue aircraft. and in theory, if even one member of flight 19 broke formation and headed west, there exists the chance that a collision took place between the Mariner and a member or members of flight 19

http://www.bermuda-attractions.com/bermuda2_i000137.jpg

if we make note that arond 7pm flight 19 announced turning back to the east from this radio located position, then at least one or two members ofthe flight left formation and headed west, further assume that they were at the center of the circle marked "7" and with a cruise speed of about 145 mph they would have reached the crash site of the mariner around 745pm... the mariner was never heard from again after a routine transmission at 730

[August]

think of the italian demo team the tricolore mid-air... that involved multiple aircraft and was pretty spectacular

But that's an airshow formation. No way would they fly that close to each other normally, especially at night, especially if as you suggest it was a group of rouge pilots who'd abandoned their flight in a bid to save their necks.

[GoldenRivet]

But that's an airshow formation. No way would they fly that close to each other normally, especially at night, especially if as you suggest it was a group of rouge pilots who'd abandoned their flight in a bid to save their necks.

They wouldnt have to be that close, a massive midair collision between two aircraft would no doubt send crippling debris streaming toward other aircraft who were even loose formation close. depending on the conditions, they could have flown a fairly tight formation... i've done so at night where its actually easier to see the aircraft when he is 20-30 feet off your left wing and slightly ahead.

consider the following:

"Ft. Lauderdale NAS, Navigation problem No. 1" was the simplest and most basic of the navigation problems to be presented during the course of navigational practice. Yet somehow - and the purpose of this writing is not to determine how - but somehow Flight 19 managed to become hopelessly lost during what amounts to a basic flight training exercise.

The series of events that follows is almost unbearable to read as a pilot with some considerable experience with dead reckoning navigation. If you depart Florida heading East into the open Atlantic ocean, all logic would dictate even to a non-pilot that should you become lost in the "training area" you would eventually find your way back to Florida simply by flying West.

Even with a failed compass, there are environmental cues which would allow a pilot to navigate visually - and most prominent of these visual ques would be the sunset. Even late in the evening a pilot flying his craft through the air could aim the aircraft toward the setting sun in the Floridian latitudes and guarantee himself a roughly westbound heading. In fact this was considered such an elementary assumption that the standard "lost" procedure for air crews operating out of Florida's Naval Air Stations was to fly due west when operating in the Bahama's practice area and use known landmarks upon reaching the Florida coast.

The theory below only adds to the assumptions made about flight 19, but even a pilot of limited experience would have known:

1. If the flight is to head west long enough, land will eventually be located

2. Continuing to blindly follow an officer who is clearly lost is to only guarantee your own doom

The subordinate pilots in this scenario would have certainly adhered to military discipline and continued to follow the instructions of their superior, however one theory that has really not been considered is that at least one pilot, perhaps two with superior confidence in their own abilities may have struck off on their own and headed west when it became clear that their flight leader was not following a proper course of decisions to resolve the problem at hand, nor was he taking an appropriate course of action to solve the problem the flight was experiencing.

One thing my experience in aviation - particularly in the airline world - has taught me is this; Just because a pilot is placed into a command position of a flight this does not automatically guarantee competence. I am not outright calling Lt. Taylor incompetent, however we should allow his record to speak for itself. firstly, Lt. Taylor had been a flight instructor for a total of approximately 2 months. Secondly, according to the board conducting the investigation, Taylor had "several times" become lost within training areas with which he should have been familiar, and had twice ditched his aircraft into the sea for fuel starvation while lost.

If accident prevention training teaches anything to a young pilot, it should be that every accident has a chain of occurrences which lead to said accident, and by breaking a single link in the chain the odds of experiencing said accident greatly are reduced. Despite the fact that the "accident chain" was not a concept in use in 1945, any of the members of the flight would have eventually become aware that continuing to follow the leader based only upon the merits that he was in charge was the wrong course of action.

The final critical error in the accident chain experienced by flight 19 was their final Eastbound turn, even though they were headed due west, toward the Florida shores, the flight leader Lt. Taylor still assumed that he was in the gulf of Mexico and had not proceeded far enough east and instructed his flight to once again make a turn to the east.

Knowing aviation, and knowing aviators as i do, even men who were sitting in those machines at that very instant would have been scratching their heads at the logic of another East bound turn. And while initially the entire flight may have headed East at Lt. Taylor's order, within seconds at least one or two of the aviators in the group would have begun to question the sanity of these repeated haphazard turns. it is at this point where i make the assumption that Flight 19 split up and that 2 of the aviators broke formation and headed west.

I believe the aircraft to have broken formation to be FT-36 flown by marine Capt. EJ Powers and FT-117 flown by George W. Strivers. Though i have no concrete evidence to support that these two men broke formation, i make the assumption based upon educated logic. First, they were Marine personnel, not Navy personnel and flight 19 consisted of Marine and Navy pilots training together as was common. Second, despite not being in command of the flight element, they were the two highest ranking officers and would have been most comfortable with making a command decision contradictory the flight leader. Third, there was another USMC pilot in the group by the name of 2nd Lt. Forrest Gerber flying FT-81. Gerber's aircraft like all the others in flight 19 was a 2 crew airplane, however his partner crewman was given permission to sit the training exercise out because he was overcome with a sense of dread and a premonition of danger and expressed the opinion that it would affect his ability to perform his duties... thus, 2nd Lt. Gerber was alone in his aircraft. Psychologically speaking, when his USMC comrades broke formation and headed west, his being alone in the aircraft very likely would have contributed to the mental attitude of "staying the course" or not "leaving the herd".

Therefore FT-28, FT-3 and FT-81 continued Eastbound into the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean... while FT-36 and FT-117 proceeded West.

[Cybermat47]

Despite all of this theorizing, chances are we'll never know what really happened...

[DouglasWestfall]

Attached is the Sorenson DF at 5:50. At that time, all of Flight 19 was still together yet FT-117 would crash into the sea as they approached the mainland. According to the sightings, from there, the planes split up, each dropping out of the sky over the next hour or so.

Best Always, Douglas

[GoldenRivet]

thank you sir.

Would be great if this mystery was solved in our lifetimes.

unfortunate that so many mysteries are not