Question about China's fleet

[Red Brow]

Anyone with the money can add new ships to a brown water navy and shove it to sea as a blue water navy. But how many generations would it take China to come up with a blue water force of seamen and admirals? Yes, Japan did so in short order when taking on the Russian Pacific Fleet. But most attempts at coming up with a real bona fide blue water war fleet by simply building ships don't do so well. Example, the Kaiser's fleet in WWI - nice ships, great arty (better aimed), actually better ships and weapons than the Brits had (such as having German shells that actually detonated inside the enemy ships, rather than NOT detonating inside the enemy ships, such as many of the Brit shells) - but when the chips were down the Germans just were not up to exploiting their advantage. It was a case of a young navy (that had before the war toasted their chance to one day take on the Brit navy) but when actually facing a first class navy with hundreds of years of success and tradition, the Germans just weren't up to it.

China hopes to become a power house with its hoped for blue water navy, but really, wouldn't India out class it for another generation, not to mention the US Pacific fleet and, well, even Japan?

Well, maybe I am wrong - what do the old salt beards here say about this?

[Armistead]

Last book I read was they hoped to have a navy that could operate in international waters as far as Guam by 2050 centered around a carrier.
The bigger concern is nuke subs.

Ending, don't think China as a blue water force is anything we'll have to worry about for 100 years.

[Stealhead]

What they can achieve within reason is a highly effective regional force and that alone is a serious threat to Western interests.

[Oberon]

Yeah, their main goal is regional, not international.

Primarily, as the current situation stands, China is unable to go to war unless it can be 150% certain that it will be a war that will last no longer than a week, if that. Any longer and the Chinese economy will begin to struggle which will be the sign of weakness that the Chinese governments internal enemies need to strike at it.

It is unlikely that the PRC will be in a position to be able to conduct effective regional military operations until the end of the decade. Some analysts indicate around 2018 as being the point that the Chinese military growth will be strong enough to be able to attack Taiwan.
However, as Taiwan is a key trading partner with the PRC (and so is Japan) it's debatable whether they'll actually want to attack Taiwan and end the civil war or just leave the status quo in its current profitable form. So long as Taiwan doesn't rock the boat, I can't see Beijing being anxious to do so either so long as hardline communists don't stage a coup and plunge the PRC back into the days of Mao, which would be a monumental disaster.

It's more likely that the PRC will use its military to strengthen internally and challenge claims on key locations that aren't important trading partners. The Spratley islands come to mind with their oil reserves which China could really profit from having.

Otherwise, I can't see the PRC doing much outside of its own waters, the military will just be an important diplomatic bargaining tool, the big stick to Chinas diplomatic soft voice.

[Karle94]

Could China take on Vietnam? They tried before withou much success. If they tried to take the Phillipines they`d have trouble from some enemies with a navy that could level China to the ground. They have a large military but they might not know how to use it properly. Take the Korean war for example. The Chinese attack and pushes the UN forces back all the way out of N.Korea. Then they loose the initative and gets pushed back until there`s a stillstand around the current border. I think a modern war will be much the same. They`re overwhelming force will only serve them at the start. Then their shear numbers will become a liability. What if the US carpet bombs the areas where their forces are at? How much will remain as you can`t simply hide millions upon millions of soldiers in one day.

[Oberon]

I think they could take on Vietnam, the DRVs militarys technological level is around about the 1980s, the PRC has a decades jump on them, although it's not to be sniffed at, the DR-no...sorry Vietnam (excuse the slip back into Charlie territory there) has Su-30s and some Kilos on order so it has a bit of parity there.
The real question to ask though is why would they need to? China is Vietnams second biggest trading partner, it's a $25b trade system which the PRC would be loathe to break.
If there were to be any clashes, I'd estimate that they would take place at sea and only the disputed territories of the Spratleys or thereabouts, and I'd say that when the Liaonings carrier group is sorted out then it could certainly pose a threat to the Vietnamese navy.

China, however, will not act until it has all the pieces in place to ensure a swift victory, and even then there is a chance that they will prefer the status quo to unknown territory. After all, the most important thing to the members of the Politburo...well...to the members of any government, is keeping their own jobs, and as we've seen with Bo Xilai, the fortunes of a prominent Chinese official can change in days. :yep:

[Dive! Dive! Dive!]

Could China take on Vietnam? They tried before withou much success. If they tried to take the Phillipines they`d have trouble from some enemies with a navy that could level China to the ground. They have a large military but they might not know how to use it properly. Take the Korean war for example. The Chinese attack and pushes the UN forces back all the way out of N.Korea. Then they loose the initative and gets pushed back until there`s a stillstand around the current border. I think a modern war will be much the same. They`re overwhelming force will only serve them at the start. Then their shear numbers will become a liability. What if the US carpet bombs the areas where their forces are at? How much will remain as you can`t simply hide millions upon millions of soldiers in one day.

I doubt China will be that rash. If it made one wrong move then the whole world would turn against it. They'd stop buying Chinese goods and China's massive export market would fail.

If there was a military conflict, Vietnam and the Phillipines wouldn't stand against such large numbers but America would probably be drawn into the war sooner or later, and with them, Japan or perhaps Britian which are on the same level in technological advancement.

[Stealhead]

The conflict between China and Vietnam was over 30 years ago and much has changed since then even much more has changed since the Korean War.China has obviously learned from it past conflicts.The Korean War in particular is a very poor rule of thumb to judge any of the nations involved in it with their modern selves.

For example during the 1979 war the PLA did not even use attack aircraft against Vietnam.


The whole secret is that China does not need to actually invade or attack any nation in the region by merely having an effective regional military power China gives itself much clout and makes its military more powerful than all others in the region.A conflict between the US and China is very unlikely it simply is not in either nations interests and China realizes this as does the US.Of course both sides do realize that they are possible foes just very unlikely ones.Both nations face much more direct and likely threats than each other.If anything the current relationship between
China and the US is beneficial to both parties.Over the long term the painful truth is that China will become more powerful than the US in all respects.

[Jimbuna]

Could China take on Vietnam? They tried before withou much success. If they tried to take the Phillipines they`d have trouble from some enemies with a navy that could level China to the ground. They have a large military but they might not know how to use it properly. Take the Korean war for example. The Chinese attack and pushes the UN forces back all the way out of N.Korea. Then they loose the initative and gets pushed back until there`s a stillstand around the current border. I think a modern war will be much the same. They`re overwhelming force will only serve them at the start. Then their shear numbers will become a liability. What if the US carpet bombs the areas where their forces are at? How much will remain as you can`t simply hide millions upon millions of soldiers in one day.

Reminds me of what Colonel Bernd Von Kielst once said about the conflict between Germany and Russia:

“The German Army in fighting Russia is like an elephant attacking a host of ants. The elephant will kill thousands, perhaps even millions, of ants, but in the end their numbers will overcome him, and he will be eaten to the bone.”

[Stealhead]

One thing that many seem to forget about the Korean War is how wider world politics effected the outcome.The primary belligerents the Capitalist West and the Communists both did not want the war to expand yet wished not too lose face by clearly being defeated.This why when the war was clearly a stalemate from July 1951 on wards armistice negotiations began.

What is of importance is how you might not so much your numbers.Though the PLA presence during the Korean War made a huge difference and most certainly effected the outcome.Of course technology has substantially changed how wars are fought since the 1950's just compare the number of casualties suffered by the US during the Korean War (1951-1953) to the casualties suffered during both the Iraq War and the war in Afghanistan (2001-current).If you used human wave tactics today against a modern you would just get decimated.Just look at one AH-64 can do to human targets and modern artillery your mince meat.

[Red Brow]

Great posts guys. I got a lot out of each one. Taken together - the combined total of the best ideas - forms a very succinct examination of the likely Chinese purposes for its naval build up and the limits and possibilities for its use.