geetrue
11-10-12, 12:58 PM
This link has all the people that guessed right and the people that guessed wrong. I include just the right ones: http://news.yahoo.com/best-worst-pundit-predictors-2012-224020837.html;_ylt=AjxUaoncJqjhyw3FGuKvv3.1qHQA;_ ylu=X3oDMTVmZDhmbWdyBGNjb2RlA3JkdG9wMTAwMHBvb2wEbW l0A0FydGljbGUgTWl4ZWQgTGlzdCBOZXdzIGZvciBZb3Ugd2l0 aCBNb3JlIExpbmsEcGtnAzM1Y2IzNjBkLTVlN2ItMzg3Mi1hMW Q2LTM2MDYxZDYzMTgwZARwb3MDOARzZWMDbmV3c19mb3JfeW91 BHZlcgM2MDI1NTBmMC0yOWY5LTExZTItYjVmMy0xZGFjY2YxOT U4OGY-;_ylg=X3oDMTJqMTJqdm50BGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRw c3RhaWQDY2FjN2JmOTUtZDRmNy0zMzM4LTgxNTktZTM3MzFhMz RjNzg1BHBzdGNhdAMEcHQDc3RvcnlwYWdl;_ylv=3 (http://news.yahoo.com/best-worst-pundit-predictors-2012-224020837.html;_ylt=AjxUaoncJqjhyw3FGuKvv3.1qHQA;_ ylu=X3oDMTVmZDhmbWdyBGNjb2RlA3JkdG9wMTAwMHBvb2wEbW l0A0FydGljbGUgTWl4ZWQgTGlzdCBOZXdzIGZvciBZb3Ugd2l0 aCBNb3JlIExpbmsEcGtnAzM1Y2IzNjBkLTVlN2ItMzg3Mi1hMW Q2LTM2MDYxZDYzMTgwZARwb3MDOARzZWMDbmV3c19mb3JfeW91 BHZlcgM2MDI1NTBmMC0yOWY5LTExZTItYjVmMy0xZGFjY2YxOT U4OGY-;_ylg=X3oDMTJqMTJqdm50BGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRw c3RhaWQDY2FjN2JmOTUtZDRmNy0zMzM4LTgxNTktZTM3MzFhMz RjNzg1BHBzdGNhdAMEcHQDc3RvcnlwYWdl;_ylv=3)
RELATED: It's Time to Grade Pundit Predictions (http://www.theatlanticwire.com/politics/2012/11/grading-pundit-predictions/58768/)
The Most Correct Pundit(s) In All the Land
Prize: Gold Stars
RELATED:How Pundits Are Explaining Their Totally Wrong Election Predictions (http://www.theatlanticwire.com/politics/2012/11/how-pundits-are-explaining-their-totally-wrong-election-predictions/58796/)
To give credit where it's due, three of our predictors, two of whom might not generally fall in the "pundit" category, got the electoral vote breakdown just right. They deserve gold medals, but since this is just a blog post, they will have to settle with their names in bold, bullet points, and the title of best ever. Also deserving of this medal is our one pundit who got the closest to nailing the popular vote.
RELATED:Your Pundit Prediction Scorecard (http://www.theatlanticwire.com/politics/2012/11/your-pundit-prediction-scorecard/58729/)
Nate Silver. You have probably already heard (http://www.theatlanticwire.com/national/2012/11/nate-silver-and-math-takes-victory-lap/58787/) about how well this New York Times's number cruncher did this election season. But now that it's official, official, we can officially call him the most accurate electoral college predictor of 2012, with his 332-206 breakdown, including the close race in Florida. He also did pretty well on popular vote, which RealClearPolitics has at 50.4 to 48. His came in at 50.8 to 48.3. Not bad.
Markos Moulitsas, The Daily Kos. He came to the right conclusion with the following logic. "Currently, national polling assumes a big dropoff from registered voters to likely voters. I don't believe that'll be the case," he wrote. And, while it looks like voter turnout was lower than 2008, his prediction still came out right. Well done.
Drew Linzer, Emory. Using a statistical model (http://votamatic.org/how-it-works/), this political science professor got it right. Math for the win, again.
Jamelle Bouie, The American Prospect. He didn't get the electoral college right, giving Florida to Mitt. But he did get closest to the popular vote with a prediction of 50.4 to 48.2.
RELATED: It's Time to Grade Pundit Predictions (http://www.theatlanticwire.com/politics/2012/11/grading-pundit-predictions/58768/)
The Most Correct Pundit(s) In All the Land
Prize: Gold Stars
RELATED:How Pundits Are Explaining Their Totally Wrong Election Predictions (http://www.theatlanticwire.com/politics/2012/11/how-pundits-are-explaining-their-totally-wrong-election-predictions/58796/)
To give credit where it's due, three of our predictors, two of whom might not generally fall in the "pundit" category, got the electoral vote breakdown just right. They deserve gold medals, but since this is just a blog post, they will have to settle with their names in bold, bullet points, and the title of best ever. Also deserving of this medal is our one pundit who got the closest to nailing the popular vote.
RELATED:Your Pundit Prediction Scorecard (http://www.theatlanticwire.com/politics/2012/11/your-pundit-prediction-scorecard/58729/)
Nate Silver. You have probably already heard (http://www.theatlanticwire.com/national/2012/11/nate-silver-and-math-takes-victory-lap/58787/) about how well this New York Times's number cruncher did this election season. But now that it's official, official, we can officially call him the most accurate electoral college predictor of 2012, with his 332-206 breakdown, including the close race in Florida. He also did pretty well on popular vote, which RealClearPolitics has at 50.4 to 48. His came in at 50.8 to 48.3. Not bad.
Markos Moulitsas, The Daily Kos. He came to the right conclusion with the following logic. "Currently, national polling assumes a big dropoff from registered voters to likely voters. I don't believe that'll be the case," he wrote. And, while it looks like voter turnout was lower than 2008, his prediction still came out right. Well done.
Drew Linzer, Emory. Using a statistical model (http://votamatic.org/how-it-works/), this political science professor got it right. Math for the win, again.
Jamelle Bouie, The American Prospect. He didn't get the electoral college right, giving Florida to Mitt. But he did get closest to the popular vote with a prediction of 50.4 to 48.2.