View Full Version : Syria Shoots Down Turkish Fighter
TFatseas
06-22-12, 10:09 AM
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/06/22/us-turkey-syria-plane-idUSBRE85L0PZ20120622
Reuters) - Lebanon's Hezbollah-owned Al-Manar television station said on Friday that Syrian air defenses shot down a Turkish military aircraft, quoting Syrian security sources.
"Syrian security sources confirmed to a Manar correspondent in Damascus that Syrian defense forces shot down the Turkish fighter jet," a news flash on the Beirut-based station said.
Jimbuna
06-22-12, 10:38 AM
Turkey is a member of Nato, meaning that it could invoke Article V of the North Atlantic Treaty and summon the aid of all 28 countries in the alliance if it comes under attack. Turkey's government is a strident critic of President Bashar al-Assad's regime and tension has risen along the land border between the two neighbours.
Interesting :hmmm:
TLAM Strike
06-22-12, 11:21 AM
There is also reports that a Syrian jet defected to Jordan.
It would be interesting to see what Russia does if NATO does get directly involved.
Hottentot
06-22-12, 01:01 PM
It would be interesting to see what Russia does if NATO does get directly involved.
Condemn strongly, make lots of noise, maybe show some muscles, write long winded letters about the moral decadence of other nations, rant about human rights and make some little annoying "Ha! Take that!" gestures on some more obscure and less important matter to have a little payback. Much like it usually works in international relations. Or a sandbox, for that matter.
Edit: I forgot the most important and obvious one. Praise self, of course.
Oh Snap, Turkey has been angry at Syria since day one of this mess, this could be the turning factor if Turkey decides to directly intervene.
Whether NATO would actually follow through if Turkey invited it is another matter, some nations probably would, but many I think would just commit a token force.
It would be interesting to see what Russia does if NATO does get directly involved.
Heard on danish radio, that Russia would not hesitate to give Syria advanced ground-to-air system. If NATO is carrying out its threat to intervene in Syria.
So its going to be very interesting on what's really going to happen if NATO carries out its threats
Markus
Nothing will happen.
This is the most likely of things. :yep: Still, an interesting, and some might say inevitable, occurrence.
Jimbuna
06-22-12, 02:47 PM
Oh Snap, Turkey has been angry at Syria since day one of this mess, this could be the turning factor if Turkey decides to directly intervene.
Whether NATO would actually follow through if Turkey invited it is another matter, some nations probably would, but many I think would just commit a token force.
If Turkey 'directly intervenes' I can see Russia making a lot of political noise but nothing more because NATO and or the US would have no other option than to become physically involved in response to what the west would see as Russian aggression.
My own assessment: still a storm in a tea cup.
So far this questionable incident is least of a reason to intervene if anyone really wanted to get involved openly in this mess.
I think Russians are doing favor for all involved...and they still take the blame as the bad guys.
I hope they will find some kind of solution to the current problems down there so it does not turn into a bloody full-scale civil war
and if it happens, I hope that the rest of the world stay away and not stick its nose into this wasp's nest.
I for one are not interested in a war-like situation in which Syria on the one side, getting military support from Russia and and perhaps China, fighting, the Syrian opposition that is probably supported by NATO and perhaps U.S.A
I hope for the best but are prepared for the worst.
Markus
Molon Labe
06-22-12, 09:57 PM
I don't see this leading to anything b/c the F-4 was apparently in Syrian airspace anyways (and with everything going on, it would make zero sense for Syria to attack Turkey without provocation, so we can assume the early reports are correct in that regard).
The more interesting question to me is, why was the Turkish Phantom there---snooping around? Testing air defense response?
I hope they will find some kind of solution to the current problems down there so it does not turn into a bloody full-scale civil war
Markus
I believe this is already being considered a civil war.
TLAM Strike
06-22-12, 11:46 PM
The more interesting question to me is, why was the Turkish Phantom there---snooping around? Testing air defense response?
The Turks have the RF-4E so it might have been a recon mission. :yep:
EDIT: Defense Tech says it was an RF-4E
http://defensetech.org/2012/06/22/turkish-rf-4e-recce-jet-down-near-syria/
There is also reports that a Syrian jet defected to Jordan.
http://www.smh.com.au/world/syrian-colonel-defects-in-mig-fighter-jet-as-world-explores-a-way-out-for-assad-20120622-20rod.html
According to this report the pilot, a colonel in the Syrian defence forces, has been granted asylum in Jordan.
BossMark
06-23-12, 01:21 AM
Well it looks like there will be a few pissed off Turkeys, all they will do is flap their wings run round in circles and then do bugger all about it.
Jimbuna
06-23-12, 07:09 AM
Well it looks like there will be a few pissed off Turkeys, all they will do is flap their wings run round in circles and then do bugger all about it.
http://imgcash2.imageshack.us/img265/3228/turkeyseasonzi5.gif
joegrundman
06-23-12, 07:39 AM
If Turkey 'directly intervenes' I can see Russia making a lot of political noise but nothing more because NATO and or the US would have no other option than to become physically involved in response to what the west would see as Russian aggression.
My own assessment: still a storm in a tea cup.
don't count on it.
the war chants are building up slowly.
If turkey wants this to be a non-story that is resolvable with a payment and an apology, then it will be.
But if not, then this will be escalated.
Many parties are interested in escalating the Syrian situation, and Assad's days are definitely numbered, but slowly, slowly is the watchword for this time around in the regime change game. And maybe it will even be Turkey and/or Saudi Arabia that pulls the trigger (but with the nod from Washington)
p.s. anyone know what the Syrian weapon system was that downed the Phantom?
Jimbuna
06-23-12, 10:14 AM
p.s. anyone know what the Syrian weapon system was that downed the Phantom?
Possibly an SA-5 Gammon.
According to rumors, it was an SA-5 Gammon (S-200) a long range medium to high-altitude mobile SAM produced by the Soviets in the ’60s. Five SA-5 sites are known to be active in Syria.
http://theaviationist.com/2012/06/22/tuaf-f4-shot-down/
TLAM Strike
06-23-12, 10:47 AM
Possibly an SA-5 Gammon.
The Syrians also have the S-300 system.
Skybird
06-23-12, 10:48 AM
Russia announced to deliver weapons to Assad. A ship with modernised Syrian attack helicopters has just been turned back by Britain, over some insurrance formalities. It will be re-flagged and then sent back to Syria under Russian flag.
The CIA is reported to check for those groups amongst the opposition that should get weapons payed and delivered by Saudi Arabia and some other Arab countries.
Erdoghan I. and Assad once were very close buddies, but now... well, never try to look behind oriental schemes. Erdoghan could use the opportunity to profile Turkey as the strong and dominating boss of the region that he wants it to be. Or not? Will Turkey risk military confrontations with Syria, maybe?
Maybe a Turkish aid flotilla to Syria?
One thing is clear only: there is no excuse anymore not to call this a civil war.
I do not want to see any Western soldier's life put at risk over this. The Syrian oppositons (plural!) may be Assad'S enemy. But that does not make them our friends automatically.
TLAM Strike
06-23-12, 10:56 AM
One thing is clear only: there is no excuse anymore not to call this a civil war. [/B][/I] Not sure we can call it a civil war when there are IRGC troops on the ground (http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2012/05/28/217014.html).
Jimbuna
06-23-12, 11:10 AM
The Syrians also have the S-300 system.
May also of been an SA-11
http://www.debka.com/article/22112/Newly-supplied-Russian-Buk-M2-anti-air-missile-used-to-down-Turkish-warplane
It was an F-4...maybe the laws of physics finally caught up with it... :O:
TLAM Strike
06-23-12, 12:56 PM
The location and route of the down Phantom has been published. There are known SA-2 and SA-3 sites close to that location and a SA-5 site about 60 miles away.
Karle94
06-23-12, 01:00 PM
If Syria gets the Hind, I don`t suppose that the CIA will smuggle in a lot of Stingers like in the 80s`.
TLAM Strike
06-23-12, 01:30 PM
If Syria gets the Hind, I don`t suppose that the CIA will smuggle in a lot of Stingers like in the 80s`.
Today smuggling MANPADS in to the Middle East would be like smuggling beer in to Scotland.
Karle94
06-23-12, 01:33 PM
Today smuggling MANPADS in to the Middle East would be like smuggling beer in to Scotland.
Actually, that was sarcasm. A joke about the CIA operation in Afghanistan in the 80s`.
TLAM Strike
06-23-12, 03:23 PM
Actually, that was sarcasm. A joke about the CIA operation in Afghanistan in the 80s`.
and my response was sarcasm about there being lots of beer in Scotland. :O:
Karle94
06-23-12, 03:29 PM
and my response was sarcasm about there being lots of beer in Scotland. :O:
That much I know. Lots of beer in Scotland, how can you tell?
Jimbuna
06-23-12, 03:54 PM
That much I know. Lots of beer in Scotland, how can you tell?
You can't.......the jocks never share anything of value :stare:
They have Libyan stuff next thy will try to get all the chemicals Syria got.
You know WMD ...no joke.
Jimbuna
06-23-12, 04:20 PM
They have Libyan stuff next thy will try to get all the chemicals Syria got.
You know WMD ...no joke.
I seriously doubt that...they should be well aware they are 'next on the list' and if they do anything stupid their support from Russia and China would soon diminish.
Karle94
06-23-12, 04:31 PM
I seriously doubt that...they should be well aware they are 'next on the list' and if they do anything stupid their support from Russia and China would soon diminish.
Chemical and biological weapons are banned, if they use it, all support from Russia and China will be withdrawn. Not to mention sanctions if not direct military actions by NATO and/or UN. If that happens, there is absolutely no possible way that Syria can win.
I seriously doubt that...they should be well aware they are 'next on the list' and if they do anything stupid their support from Russia and China would soon diminish.
I was saying that a lot of Libyan armament like MANPADS fell into hands of all sort of rebel/terrorist fractions....anarchy in Syria may cause similar outcome.
They have loads of chemical stuff laying around in same stockpiles as conventional ammo.
It all just seats there without extra measures....:doh:
TLAM Strike
06-23-12, 04:51 PM
Chemical and biological weapons are banned, if they use it, all support from Russia and China will be withdrawn. Not to mention sanctions if not direct military actions by NATO and/or UN. If that happens, there is absolutely no possible way that Syria can win. Syria is not a signatory of the CWC.
Karle94
06-23-12, 04:55 PM
Syria is not a signatory of the CWC.
Yes I know. Others are and will condemn any use of it. Maybe even do something about it. There is one thing I find strange, Israel has no interest in this. Syria is an old and hated enemy. If there`s going to be foreign intervention, will Israel participate in it?
Yes I know. Others are and will condemn any use of it. Maybe even do something about it. There is one thing I find strange, Israel has no interest in this. Syria is an old and hated enemy. If there`s going to be foreign intervention, will Israel participate in it?
As a representative of Zionist conspiracy to control Arab world?
It would be PR disaster for the west .:haha:
They watch too much Zion Protocols crap.....
TLAM Strike
06-23-12, 05:01 PM
Yes I know. Others are and will condemn any use of it. Maybe even do something about it. There is one thing I find strange, Israel has no interest in this. Syria is an old and hated enemy. If there`s going to be foreign intervention, will Israel participate in it?
I sort of doubt they would directly participate. With the way things are going in Egypt I would think Israel would want the two factions in Syria to either destroy each other or fight on forever. As long as they are fighting them selves they are not available to join up with Egypt (and Iran assuming Assad wins in Syria, Saudi perhaps if he doesn't) and go after Israel.
Kongo Otto
06-23-12, 05:21 PM
Nothing will happen.
Spot on!
I sort of doubt they would directly participate. With the way things are going in Egypt I would think Israel would want the two factions in Syria to either destroy each other or fight on forever. As long as they are fighting them selves they are not available to join up with Egypt (and Iran assuming Assad wins in Syria, Saudi perhaps if he doesn't) and go after Israel.
If I were in Tel Aviv, I would be laughing my head off right now.
Of course, there is the danger of the end results of these 'Arab Springs' leading into a large Arabic superstate which will band together and provide a new villain for Tom Clancy novels for the next decade...
If I were in Tel Aviv, I would be laughing my head off right now.
Of course, there is the danger of the end results of these 'Arab Springs' leading into a large Arabic superstate which will band together and provide a new villain for Tom Clancy novels for the next decade...
Lawless and fractured Arab states might be great pain in the back as well.
Jimbuna
06-24-12, 05:06 AM
Let us all be positive...Assad will soon tire of the fighting and step down as soon as his Dacha build is completed in Siberia :88)
Well, Turkey has used Article Four to call a meeting of NATO, which is more than I suspected it would do.
I doubt much more than sanctions will come from this meeting...but it's an interesting development nonetheless.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18568207
Skybird
06-24-12, 10:40 AM
I wonder if maybe the Turks have provoked a robust Syrian reaction in order to draw NATO into any consequences after a hopefully triggered "incident" and by that triggering an intervention by NATO in Syria.
This zig-zagging close to the Syrian border opens the lane for speculations.
by the BBC:
http://www.acus.org/files/images/bbc%206%2024%2012%20turkey_syria_map464.gif (http://www.acus.org/content/alleged-flightpath-turkish-jet-shot-down-syria)
Turkey has an interest in regime change in Syria now, for the ties with Assad are FUBAR, but with the oppositions (plural) coming to power there are chances that Turkey can play a dominant role in restructuring the region.
German news says the Phantom was warned that it was in Syrian airspace 15 minutes before the shot. The machine immediately reacted and withdrew. Only to return some minutes later.
Skybird
06-25-12, 04:21 PM
Hooray, what did I say: Turkey plans to invoke NATO article 5 over the Syrian shotdown of Turkish jet.
Again NATO troops should risk their lives to install a fundamentalist government in a Muhameddan state, basing on Sharia law.
I stick to it: this goes according to how Turkey has planned it. The flights of the Phnatoms were a provocation to open right this window of opportunity. If the Syrian information on flightplaths over the local map are correct, it is is telltaling a piec eof info, especially the last manouver that led to opening fire.
I just hope that Turkey does not get what it wants at the NATO conference
Syria meanwhile claims that the Phantom was shot down not by SAM, but by AAA, which means it was most likely not attacked in international air space (what AAA shoots 6 miles and more with lethal accuracy?) . And even if it was a SAM, it still could mean that the missile was fired with the Phjantom, in Syrian air space, then it tried to escape with the missile in trial, and got hit aftr having left Syrian air space.
The recovering and examination of the Pjhnatom should not be left to the Turks alone. Erdoghan is a man of split tongue and will produce any lie needed to get what he wants. So watch his fingers closely while he deals the cards.
I'd hardly trust the Syrian government to give trustworthy claims.
Skybird
06-25-12, 05:30 PM
Turkey's statements cannot be trusted any better.
Turkey's statements cannot be trusted any better.
You're not wrong there!!:doh:
joegrundman
06-26-12, 02:30 AM
I'd hardly trust the Syrian government to give trustworthy claims.
You also cannot trust the US government, or in fact any government, to give trustworthy claims (and you'd be a fool to do so).
All claims serve a purpose, whether true, half-true, or false.
It is the purpose that is interesting, not the claim itself.
Jimbuna
06-26-12, 02:44 AM
Article 5 may be the only way of circumventing Russia and China without bringing them into open conflict.
Then again, Article 5 may still not be enough.
Catfish
06-26-12, 05:23 AM
Well even Turkey admits by now their F4E was shot down in syrian airspace ... methinks a typical turkish provocation, they have done this numerous times.
IF NATO really gets involved in there (i doubt it though, unless they want to provoke, themselves), there may be the faint chance of some unfriendliness with Russia. After the "rocket shield" being installed in Poland (!) to protect the USA against iranian rockets (who is supposed to believe that - the Russians?), i doubt Russia will allow NATO to get involved militarily in Syria (?)
Skybird
06-26-12, 05:55 AM
It seems NATO did not meet Turkey's demand with much warmth, Turkey now steps back and called comments that NATO would considerate the issue on basis of article 5 a "misunderstanding". Maybe NATO has not forgotten Turkish provocations over the Gaza flotilla...
Russia in Syria: I think the Russians are even worse prepared to get into a hot war with NATO then NATO is willing to get into a hot war against the Syrians. But there would be huge political fallout, and reactions in Russia's defence policy and defence budget.
Russia in Syria: I think the Russians are even worse prepared to get into a hot war with NATO then NATO is willing to get into a hot war against the Syrians. But there would be huge political fallout, and reactions in Russia's defence policy and defence budget.
Russia wants Syria to be in its sphere of influence....with or without Assad.
The motivations of turkey as a great leader of Sunni world are clear but i cant hardly imagine that NATO will move along with it....they...the Turks must be careful playing the game.
I suspect the issue is becoming real pain in the back for the rest of the western countries.
On humanitarian level it is really sad whats going on is Syria....that's ME and rest of the world in the essence.
.............
.............
Skybird
07-01-12, 08:12 AM
Doubts over Turkey'S version of the incident mount higher and higher, American sources claim the jet indeed was brought down by triple-A inside Syrian airspace while flying very deep and relatively slow.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304830704577497081567553846.html?m od=googlenews_wsj
Before, the Herald Tribune quoted Amerian sources saying that it were extremely unlikely that the jets' mission were not actively directed against Syria.
Jimbuna
07-01-12, 10:03 AM
^ Good link :yep:
Jimbuna
07-04-12, 01:04 PM
The bodies have been found...just need to find the plane wreckage to help determine how it was shot down.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18707069
Skybird
07-10-12, 10:38 AM
It makes the round in the media now that the Turkish general staff, the Turkish secret service and the Turkish government have come to the conclusion that the jet that got shot down indeed was within Syrian air space, and that the propaganda version told by Erdoghan I. can no longer be defended.
Jimbuna
07-10-12, 11:32 AM
Well nothing surrounding the whole sad affair would suprise me...I trust neither side.
Skybird
07-13-12, 04:09 AM
Confusion stockpiling upwards, no ceiling in sight:
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/questions-piling-up-on-downed-turkish-plane.aspx?pageID=238&nID=25318&NewsCatID=359
Turkey opens the road towards alternative scenario that the jet was not shot at at all (implying that it got downed by accident or pilot error, and Syria just claiming the kill to boast).
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