View Full Version : Elections in Europe today
Skybird
05-05-12, 07:14 PM
In France. In Greece.
Possible that historians in the future will mark this sunday at the very latest as the ultimate beginning of the ultimate end of the Eurozone in its current format.
That was today, well any how we got a big moon.
That was today.
True.
That was today, well any how we got a big moon.
I have read about this in the news today: moon is as closest as possible to earth this year tonight. I wanted to show this to my kids, but what a disappointment, the sky was too cloudy to see the moon. "We got a big moon", did you see it? Well, obviously.
In France. In Greece.
Possible that historians in the future will mark this sunday at the very latest as the ultimate beginning of the ultimate end of the Eurozone in its current format.
I would tend to agree...it's going to be an interesting day for Europe, that's for certain...
I hope Sarkozy is given the boot and don't forget your milk crate on the way out. As for Greece what a mess.
BossMark
05-06-12, 08:25 AM
I really would like to see Sarkozy get a thumping then hopefully in few months time or so he and dodgy Dave can spend all their free time together...
I fear that if Hollande comes in to power though, it'll be the first of the dominos to fall. :hmmm:
Jimbuna
05-06-12, 11:14 AM
We should know the fate of Sarkozy in a few hours :hmmm:
I'm expecting him to lose.
BossMark
05-06-12, 12:06 PM
We should know the fate of Sarkozy in a few hours :hmmm:
I'm expecting him to lose.
:hmmm: I wonder which one of the candidates will surrender first :haha:
I fear that if Hollande comes in to power though, it'll be the first of the dominos to fall. :hmmm:
yeah. he said that he will try to renegotiate how the money from the Euro plus pact are distributed...or the very idea of giving money to the countries devoured by the crisis.:DL
btw, isn't that funny that a descendant of Jewish Hungarian immigrants is saying that he plans to ban the immigrants coming to France :har:
I hope he has a hard landing back in Jerusalem...
Skybird
05-06-12, 12:07 PM
I expect Sarkozy to loose, too, but he is the lesser of two evils - let there be no doubt that everybody wanting an improved financial situation in France and Europe and that Eurocrats and especially Germany will cry for him. Hollande is a 100% socialist, he wants planned economy, a centralised EU following French exmaple, he wants to end the ECB's (formal) independence so that it can print the moneys he needs without him needing to boost economy to produce the real value raising ammounts of money should base on - and he wants Germany guaranteeing for the debts he wishes to make, and paying for it indirectly via the ECB and EU fonds. Needless to mention Eurobonds to collectivise debts so that the better performers get punished and the ones lacking fiscal discipline must not feel any motivation to be dislkined at all. The so-called fiscal pact - I hesitate to call it that because it already is substantially watered down and allows many backdoors for nations to escape it's discipline rules - he wants to reopen and renegotiate, too (just other words for abandoning it) .
Ah, and he wants 75% tax on the "rich".
Hollande has slammed French economy against the wall once, and he performed so bad that the last socialist president, Mitterand, needed to stop him and put him on a very short chain.
The EU polit bureau and Germany need to be adamant on him. Else we get from bad to worse, and German workers and employees paying the loooong bills.
Anyway, the Frenchz-German cooperation, as difficult as it already was, will suffer dearly, and like almost always the Germans in the end will give ground and allow softening up all intentions on rules, and they will agree to finance it as long as it gets hidden in indirect mechanisms that allow Merkel at home to still say that she remained "detemrined" and "unmoved". But Germany will pay the bill anyway. It will pay. No matter what. It's a genetic defect created from too much guilt accumulated in WWII.
And there will be elections in Germany next year. Chances currently are thjat a socialist-green government will take over. Both have already repeatedrly said that they want to open the finacial flood-gatres of the German central bank and the ECB, and wantg to increase the german ebts to come up for the debt of others. They said it, repeatedly. So Germany is in a no-win-situation anyway. What gets decided today is only whether it can buy some more months' time, or not.
I love the editorials we have in the German press, and the financial essays. So many recommendations on how by pure magic make money out of no value. And when you look closer at it, it is always the same: debts-trading, "I take your debts, so he will take my debts, and you finance his debts, and in the end, nobody pays for any debts". and keeping the snowball-system alive one round longer. Reading such essays these days make me feel that economics is the academic art of excercising retardedness, idiocy and reality-denial. The issues we get haunted by, are neither complex nor difficult to understand. What makes it diofficult is our more and more complex attempts to deceive ourselves over how irrational the whole design is.
In the end, nobody has any advise at all, but is trying to calm down his panic. That is what the econimic editorials are aboujt these days.
Skybird
05-06-12, 12:07 PM
Anbd what kind of government is to be expected in the Netherlands now?
btw, isn't that funny that a descendant of Jewish Hungarian immigrants is saying that he plans to ban the immigrants coming to France :har:
I hope he has a hard landing back in Jerusalem...
:hmmm:
Funny...a zionist Pole:03:
"dziekuje bardzo":haha:
BossMark
05-06-12, 01:11 PM
Looks like Hollande as won with 51,9% of the vote.
Any chance The French can keep his missus on as first lady?
And now it gets interesting... :hmmm:
Jimbuna
05-06-12, 02:52 PM
And now it gets interesting... :hmmm:
Aye that :DL
Respenus
05-06-12, 03:03 PM
Actually, Greece will become a much bigger problem than France. Hollande will not have the two year long grace period that Mitterrand had when he became president. Hollande has already spoken in favour of fiscal discipline (how that will be enacted in reality is a different thing, but right now, in the EU, it is the discourse that sets the course) and Merkel has been willing to support an increase in funds of the European Investment Bank, whose policies actually strongly support SMEs, something that Germany likes.
Greece on the other hand has finally disintegrated. It's a question if a coalition can even be formed and if it can, what kind of policies will it actually be able to put in place. So, say goodbye to the two month grace period we had and prepare once more to breathe heavily on Fridays. It helps when following the developments in the European Council. :03:
Bilge_Rat
05-06-12, 03:25 PM
I was hoping Sarko would pull off an upset, but it was not to be. Best of luck to the new President.
Much as you criticize the French, I much prefer their system for electing a President.
Sarkozy your out of here. :yeah:
Next to get shot of Angela Merkel.
Then the clown double act here of David Cameron & Nick Clegg.
Mean while in Greece..
ATHENS (Reuters) - Greek voters enraged by economic hardship deserted traditional governing parties in droves at elections on Sunday, putting the country's future in the euro zone at risk, according to an early projection by the Interior Ministry.
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/angry-greeks-vote-cliffhanger-election-041845275--business.html
Kongo Otto
05-06-12, 04:25 PM
I hope Sarkozy is given the boot and don't forget your milk crate on the way out. As for Greece what a mess.
Sarkozy got the boot but be sure that nothing will change.
One "old boy" was changed against an other "old boy", so what?
Thank god i voted neither of those pompous wazzocks.
Skybird
05-06-12, 05:31 PM
Actually, Greece will become a much bigger problem than France. Hollande will not have the two year long grace period that Mitterrand had when he became president. Hollande has already spoken in favour of fiscal discipline (how that will be enacted in reality is a different thing, but right now, in the EU, it is the discourse that sets the course) and Merkel has been willing to support an increase in funds of the European Investment Bank, whose policies actually strongly support SMEs, something that Germany likes.
Hollande and fiscal discipline. Only at the price of spending more, and increasing debts. ;) So much for discipline. Increasing funds for the Euro Investement Bank equals a further desintegration of fiscal discipline, since these raises can only be had at the price of increasing debts of the paying nations (they have no money in black numbers and so need to lease those upstocking volumes themselves). In other words, the investements of this bank gets payed with more debts, and in the end translates into more collectivising of the debts. What Germany wanted to avoid, was right this. What the already existing SAtability Pact, and the treaty of Maasstricht forbig, was right this: collectivisng of debts. Until today it still is valid European law that no nation is allowed to take over the guaranteeing for the debts of other nations. It's just that this gets simply ignored since years.
Whether the effect now gets acchieved by Eurobonds or the Investement Bank, is unimportant, the meaning is the same: bypassing financial discipline, letting nations off the hook to not spend more than they can manage to earn. Message from doing so: no need to save at home, you get bailouts nevertheless, just under a different name. Bills to the same adresses as usual.
You have always been a hopeless optimist on European issues, Respenus. ;)
Greece on the other hand has finally disintegrated. It's a question if a coalition can even be formed and if it can, what kind of policies will it actually be able to put in place. So, say goodbye to the two month grace period we had and prepare once more to breathe heavily on Fridays. It helps when following the developments in the European Council. :03:
The so-called "m arket" already has written off the losses from greece. It's damage potential thus is limited now, fincially, and only eurocrats worry now about the symbology of when Greece leaves or gets thrown out of the Euro.
Symbology. In other words: making big tam-tams over worthless hulls with no content.
The fincial damage possible from the case France is much more dangerous than Greece. When Holland moves on with his plans, the intrerest rates for French bonds will go through the ceiling, and then it is party in Euroland. Compared to France, Greece is just a cheap noontime siesta.
One extreme left and one extreme right party in Greek parliament. I expect to see some very entertaining TV scenes from live reports from the chamber. :D They have swung fists over lesser issues in the past, I believe I recall.
Some simple equations :
1)
Portugal + a Socialist government => heavy problems for this country.
Spain + a Socialist government => heavy problems for this country.
Greece + a Socialist government => heavy problems for this country.
France + a Socialist government => ??? for this country.
2)
Portugal + Spain + Greece + France => ??? for € and Europe.
Cheers.
Some British (and judicious) sentences :
Winston Churchill : “Christopher Columbus was the first socialist: he didn’t know where he was going, he didn’t know where he was… and he did it all at taxpayers expense.”Margaret Thatcher :"The trouble with Socialism is that eventually you run out of other people's money." To be meditated ...
"History repeats when no-one learns the lessons..."
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/may/06/golden-dawn-far-right-greece
Just as we have seen some countries go to the left to try and cope with this crisis, others are going to go right...some more than others. We've seen the beginnings in Finland and Holland, but the seeds are planted deeper in Greece because it's in Greece that the crisis is hitting home the hardest, just like Germany in the early 1930s.
It's not likely that the Golden Dawn are going to take over the Greek government, Europe remembers the Nazis too well to let the far right take control of a country again, but that sentiment can rise in any manner of forms, be it more 'Brevik' style attacks, or just a rise in anti-immigration policies.
With Merkel and Hollande unlikely to agree to anything lasting, and Merkels party alliance facing trouble at home...
These will be dark days for Europe...and thus eventually, the world, for economic markets are so interlinked that if Europe goes down the pan, Japan, America and China will follow. Already the Japanese markets are down because of the news in Greece and France.
BossMark
05-07-12, 12:57 AM
Margaret Thatcher
Do you mind not using foul and abusive language on these forums please.
Tribesman
05-07-12, 03:14 AM
Some simple equations :
1. Spain-right wing military dictatorship=>heavy problems for this country
Portugal-right wing military dictatorship=>heavy problems for the country.
Greece right wing military dictatorship=>heavy problems for the country
2. each of those coutries has had changing governments since the end of dictatorship
Torvald Von Mansee
05-07-12, 03:19 AM
Some simple equations :
1)
Portugal + a Socialist government => heavy problems for this country.
Spain + a Socialist government => heavy problems for this country.
Greece + a Socialist government => heavy problems for this country.
France + a Socialist government => ??? for this country.
2)
Portugal + Spain + Greece + France => ??? for € and Europe.
Cheers.
You can't mix logic with faith.
Torvald Von Mansee
05-07-12, 03:21 AM
Some British (and judicious) sentences :
Winston Churchill :Margaret Thatcher :To be meditated ...
LOL...seriously?
Respenus
05-07-12, 03:47 AM
You have always been a hopeless optimist on European issues, Respenus. ;)
A hopeless optimist Skybird? Even after you've turned me around? Then, what was I a couple of years ago? A loony? :D
In all seriousness, I understand your argument and its underlying logic and I agree, we have to live within our means and we have to avoid common debts in the Eurozone, without having a proper, common state to support it. Since a snowball in Hell has a higher chance of survival than this prospect, I wouldn't count on it happening any time soon and if it did come to pass, there would still need to be internal discipline, as we see it in Switzerland for example.
As for Hollande and fiscal disciple, our beloved Spiegel has an article on the fact that Hollande will have to be a pragmatist in order to survive (nothing new on the Western front). As for the EIB, note that the majority of its capital is call-in capital, meaning that states can be called upon to fulfil their commitments, but if I remember correctly, this has yet to happen to the EIB. Contrary to most banks, it actually functions like one and it makes sure that its investments are sound and that credits are paid back. Thus states will only have to pay a small amount of the total increase in bank capital, but which, when used properly, can have major positive results for the economy. Of course, this will take years, so its not a panacea for the current ills. Plus, there's currently a Luxembourgian as president of the EIB and it is certain to remain in capable (read northern European) hands.
The so-called "market" already has written off the losses from greece. It's damage potential thus is limited now, fincially, and only eurocrats worry now about the symbology of when Greece leaves or gets thrown out of the Euro.
Symbology. In other words: making big tam-tams over worthless hulls with no content.
As the S&P recent report states, you are in the right, and they consider a Greek exit to be a high possibility in future development, which will set a problematic precedence for other eurozone members in the periphery. This is probably what we all wish to avoid. If the markets were rational, Greece would had been left to hang two years ago, considering that it is a small economy, with a minor share in total Euro public debt. But this market irrationality, taken together with ineffective and panic stricken leaders, meant that policy decisions were taken that were counter-productive, turning Greece into an endless money hole, while supporting austerity policies in an environment with a non-functional administrative system and ubiquitous cronyism, meant that Greece's economy would dive even deeper.
I also agree with you, that currently symbols mean a lot more than actions and it is this symbolism that has both given us respite in the past two months, and it will be symbolism which will throw us off the deep end. Here's hoping (oh, you meant this optimism :O:) that the discourse will change. But the Skybird trained realist in my knows that it won't and that we'll once again take feel-good decision without any substance. Path dependency anyone?
Skybird
05-07-12, 04:42 AM
Do you mind not using foul and abusive language on these forums please.
That call is unneeded. He didn't.
Jimbuna
05-07-12, 04:44 AM
Oh I simply love this thread :DL
http://img46.imageshack.us/img46/2328/crysta121.gif
Some simple equations :
Portugal + a Socialist government => heavy problems for this country.
Cheers.
When? Possibly the last "socialist" government that we had was during the second half of the 90's (not counting the post revolution govs).
The last PS government was not socialist/centre-left wing government, it was in fact more liberal and right wing. Today we have a centre-right government and things are the same or worse.
Portugal-right wing military dictatorship=>heavy problems for the country.
Depends of who is observing. The Estado Novo was not a military dictatorship, it began like one, in a military coup but after 1933 it lost that "characteristic". And during the finals years, the Marcelismo period, things in general were not bad in terms of job, income, social care and social security (that was implemented during that years).
And of course many people now see that period has a good period and not today was many things are normally wrong here.
We were also a country at side Europe and we still are, so things here are also a bit different. A socialist government will be only in name and not in policy and do a liberal/right wing politics. The Communist party is still the third politics force... (and a few youngs still believe a soviet paradise...no comments) and so on.
Skybird
05-07-12, 05:00 AM
A hopeless optimist Skybird? Even after you've turned me around? Then, what was I a couple of years ago? A loony? :D
In all seriousness, I understand your argument and its underlying logic and I agree, we have to live within our means and we have to avoid common debts in the Eurozone, without having a proper, common state to support it. Since a snowball in Hell has a higher chance of survival than this prospect, I wouldn't count on it happening any time soon and if it did come to pass, there would still need to be internal discipline, as we see it in Switzerland for example.
Which does not make the Swiss immune to their surrounding fincial market. Their currency is under pressure and for their standards they needed to accept some remarkable invasive steps to safeguard the stability and solidity of the franken. But still the Franlken has dropped at least once below the limit in exchnage ratio to the Euro. Even a strong, solid currency and w healthy economy these days does not make you untouchable by the crisis all around anymore. The Swedish Reichsbank made a very solid and logical step some time ago, though. They just forbid trading US bonds, due to the immense debt burden that pulls the US down and devalues its financial means and tools.
At the very core of today'S problems is the fincial system'S attempt to make blind profit from trading with debts. In principle, debt trading should be forbidden and banned. No more bonds. This is at the very deepest centre heart of the troubles we are in, I am convinced.
As for Hollande and fiscal disciple, our beloved Spiegel has an article on the fact that Hollande will have to be a pragmatist in order to survive (nothing new on the Western front). As for the EIB, note that the majority of its capital is call-in capital, meaning that states can be called upon to fulfil their commitments, but if I remember correctly, this has yet to happen to the EIB. Contrary to most banks, it actually functions like one and it makes sure that its investments are sound and that credits are paid back. Thus states will only have to pay a small amount of the total increase in bank capital, but which, when used properly, can have major positive results for the economy. Of course, this will take years, so its not a panacea for the current ills. Plus, there's currently a Luxembourgian as president of the EIB and it is certain to remain in capable (read northern European) hands.
I assume you mean this piece: http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/french-greek-and-schleswig-holstein-elections-show-risks-ahead-for-merkel-a-831671.html
It is hilarious, tragic and lethal how such small parties (FDP) that just weeks ago were skimming below the 2% marking nation-wide can unfold such a dramatic power influence in national politics.
Anyhow, the match is about buying some more time, or not. The ultimate outcome may be delayed or not, but will be changed little by elections and altering policies. Things went wrong for too many decades, have sunken too deep into present societies and penetrated into them on all levels, and have turned into too dominant a structural factor as if I have any idea anymore on how to solkve the mess, even more when pepople will vote anybody out of office who'se policies do hurt them.
I increaisngly wonder if a demcoiratic system really is the way to win back influence over a Europe in deep crisis. I also mwonder if basic demiocracy really is the functional thing - has any funciton at all, that is - to administrate the needs and decisions of a community embracing half a billion different people and three dozen different major cultures and several hundreds small local subcultures. It's all too big, too much, too many, my instinct tells me.
That call is unneeded. He didn't.
Some would disagree with that... :O:
Do you mind not using foul and abusive language on these forums please.
Ask the boss to ban those words. :03:
That call is unneeded. He didn't.
You wouldn't say that Sky if you lived over here under that woman'a years in power. ;):know:
Some would disagree with that... :O:
Most of North of Watford. :yep:
I hear Angela Merkel is throwing a wobbler.
No No No No...You can not to France & Greece.
Yea, rock the EU boat.
Tribesman
05-07-12, 03:21 PM
You wouldn't say that Sky if you lived over here under that woman'a years in power
Be fair, given his habit of making stuff up he would be applauding the efforts maggie pushed through to quell the militant arsenic miners from cornwall to ensure they could not dictate/negotiate their own working conditions.
Though to declare an interest I did bloody well out of Maggies asset stripping and tax payer funded free for alls.....but you poor buggers who are the citizens of her state did get thoroughly screwed.:yeah:
Onkel Neal
05-09-12, 11:10 PM
Jon Stewart said it best (http://www.thedailyshow.com/full-episodes/mon-may-7-2012-admiral-general-aladeen) at 4:00
Jimbuna
05-10-12, 05:07 AM
Not available via the link :hmmm:
Not available via the link :hmmm:
it requires teh pluginz for a proper display :smug:
Not available via the link :hmmm:
Did you see the message jim?
Get my headlines from CH4!
Don't send in the Red Coats!
Your asking for war. :stare: :haha:
Jimbuna
05-10-12, 11:24 AM
Rgr that :up:
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