Next Great Depression? MIT researchers predict ‘global economic collapse’ by 2030

[vienna]

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/sideshow/next-great-depression-mit-researchers-predict-global-economic-190352944.html

..and things are going so well now...

...

[GoldenRivet]

I predict that after a few more cold ones... im gonna take a monster piss.

I'm tired of these think tanks and their gloom and doom.:shifty:

[Oberon]

I had it at around 2050 myself :hmmm:

There's a lot of factors between here and there that if not addressed will lead to a rather catastrophic meltdown. Population growth, food prices, oil reserves, security vs freedoms, ethnic tensions, etc.
It's all the same problems that we had a hundred years ago, but on a planet which is half the size and with double (if not quadruple) the amount of people.

Maybe things will improve, if Star Trek style 'replicators' become available then our food shortage problems are over, but at the same time there would have to be a major readjustment of economics...which probably wouldn't be a bad thing, the whole way we think of economics and how it works needs an overhaul to provide more elasticity to surmount what the next few decades are going to throw at it.

Expansion to another planet would also help with the population problems.
Alternatively there are the options of a good old fashioned global war, or a highly contagious and fatal disease. If left unchecked the population will be reduced through some way or another, that much is certain, the current trend just cannot continue, it is unsustainable.

We shall see but certainly things will be interesting, and as the old Chinese curse goes..."May you live in interesting times"

[STEED]

Great! I will be a few short years away from retiring so there is no need to save for a pension, carry on STEED. :woot:

[JU_88]

2030 is wildly optimistic,
Financial collapes is overdue, it should have happened already in 2008, but we postponed it with the bailouts.
Now its pretty much down to how much longer the US Dollar & Euro can survive, there is NO way either will last until 2030. I'd give it another 1-3 years before we have a collapes and some would even accuse that of being over optimistic.
But it is a mathmatical certainty, time is up for this fiat ponzi sceme, many know its coming some are making preperations to survive it, others will know how to profiteer from it.
But it should be pretty obvious to anyone that we cant sustain unlimited growth in a world where rescources are limited.
People who think the last 40 years of prosperity and growth can simply carry on forever - need their heads examined.

Many conspiricy theorists harp on about the dangers of the "New world order" where we will suffer eugenics, tryrany, famine and poverty etc. But to be honest ...isnt that also where we will invetiably wind up if we continue with the 'Current world order' also?
Hell, all of the above even sounds like the current world order anyway.

[Skybird]

I had it at around 2050 myself :hmmm:

There's a lot of factors between here and there that if not addressed will lead to a rather catastrophic meltdown. Population growth, food prices, oil reserves, security vs freedoms, ethnic tensions, etc.
It's all the same problems that we had a hundred years ago, but on a planet which is half the size and with double (if not quadruple) the amount of people.

Estimates of global population size around 1900 range around 1 - 1.5 billion, so the factor is in the range of not just 2 - 3, but 5 - 7 . In 2050, the factor will be around 6 - 9.

The current populaiton size in 2011/2012, 7 billion, is estimated to represent 6% of all individuals of modenr mankind that have ever been born since the species "arrived" in the stone age.

The pressure on resources is hard to be estimated in growth, but usually high-rating two digit numbers and low three digit numbers are given.

What I mean is your description I quoted is quite euphemistic. :-? :know:

I recommended it before repeatedly, but do it again, a good reading on what could be waiting for us behind the next corner is this:

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Collapse-Societies-Choose-Fail-Survive/dp/0140279512/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1333719627&sr=8-1 (http://www.amazon.co.uk/Collapse-Societies-Choose-Fail-Survive/dp/0140279512/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1333719627&sr=8-1)

If a society has chosen the path towards collapse, then often it goes that way quite quickly, and faster than everybody expected. There is a decision point apparently which to pass means that from there on the inner dynamic of the process accelerates to previously unexpected levels. On local levels, we have been there so many times, in all regions of the world. It seems we have nothing learned from that. Today is the first time that our fate is at stake not on a local, regional scale, but on a global scale. And it seems to me that genetic programs of mours that in the past served us well, in the overcrowded present are working against us, and seem to be impossible to overcome.

People do not change.

Not really.

I'm currently reading this one:

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Die-Stunde-Dilettanten-verschaukeln-lassen/dp/3552055541/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1333720000&sr=1-1 (http://www.amazon.co.uk/Die-Stunde-Dilettanten-verschaukeln-lassen/dp/3552055541/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1333720000&sr=1-1)

A German review of the book here: http://www.welt.de/kultur/literarischewelt/article13946313/Die-Dilettanten-sind-die-Heroen-unserer-Tage.html (http://www.welt.de/kultur/literarischewelt/article13946313/Die-Dilettanten-sind-die-Heroen-unserer-Tage.html)

A brilliantly written description of how a culture in which the self-exposers have taken over once again is doomed to constantly decline and falling apart. The dilettant is a person that must not be competent in anything but only in giving a good shine, giving the impression of being capable to be what he/her wants to be, but cannot be by ability. The facade however already is enough to guarantee his/her career, his showacting and his performance is evidence of his competence.

With such a culture that both applauds such narcissistic actors and encourages them, while at the same time really qualified people get locked out or do not dare to take on something because they indeed realise the problem in full and see no solution at an acceptable risk, you cannot hope to "save the world". And the voters, they reward the dilettantism you see on every level, everywhere, they demand the stage show, they want to get entertzained that way.

We amuse ourselves to death, and get drowned in the most shallow of all possible entertainments.

Serves us right, I am tempted to think.

[gimpy117]

well lets face it, were in a new century but our main power generation for energy are over 100 years old. I mean lets think here:

-Otto Cycle Invented over 100 years ago; powers the bulk of our cars and at best has 30% energy efficiency since 70% of gasoline's energy is lost to heat that either is blown out the radiator or flies out the tail pipe.

-coal burning power plants with steam turbines; also very old tech. We were using coal burning steam power to run things since the steam engine was invented. The real funny thing is...the railroad industry got rid of coal because it was dirty and inefficient...but we still turn on our lights with it!

-and lets face it, we rely way to much on air transport. I don't wanna put a bullet in my own industry but there needs to be strides In my field not just to save gas (which is already a huge focus), but find a way for someone to fly across the Atlantic without burning more gas than they use in a year in one trip. I mean a 747-400 alone burns about 33,000 Thousand pounds of fuel an hour. and i believe it's 9 pounds a gallon so...Ironically I find the aviation industry to probably be the industry with the most willingness to do anything to make their aircraft more green, because they have understood that it makes THEM money. Why? because fuel prices can't easily be dumped off on people, the american public is currently in some idea that flying should be cheap, and are angered when ticket prices go up. Seriously; whens the last time you bought from an airline directly and not a discount travel site?

But other industries allow this to continue and people with positions of power; or people who know friends who make money off this let it happen. I'm no expert, but I think it's because it is how they are set up. The car industry couldn't give a hoot, because the cost of fuel is not really on them, rather their consumer and unless people start lining up for hybrids and electric cars they'll keep a percentage of gas guzzlers in the line up. The power industry is probably the worst in my mind, Because when fuel oil or coal prices go up; so do our bills. Why would they invest in more efficient equipment without some government incentive when they can just use another government program for people who can't pay?!