Libya war coming to an end. Does it?

[Skybird]

Last days' and today's reports indicate that the rebels were successful in isolating Tripolis and cutting off the last supply lines into Tripolis. It is reported they also successfully negotiated with tribes in the Western part of the county to quit their loyalty to Gaddafi, with hostilities in the Western areas having faded out. More and more military key officers of Gaddafi are deserting, just yesterday another minister. The firing of a Scud yesterday is seen as a sign of how desperate Gaddafi is, with him being surrounded from all directions and the rebels free to move where they want, and having opened their own oil export harbour already some time ago, guaranteeing them financial income. More and more foreign observers conclude that the military situation for Gaddafi'S forces is more or less hopeless now. Rebel commanders say that they will start the storm on Tripolis in 2-3 weeks, saying that despite high numbers of injured in past days, this has not stopped them, and Gaddafi-forces also suffering high losses - which they can no longer replace.

Sounds like the endgame is set to start soon. Although, as we all know, urban house-to-house combat is bloody and nasty. But I see a chance that Gaddafi'S troops will not stand up until the last man, but will desert or switch sides. If the rebels are wise, they make them offerings for amnesty and escaping alive if they leave while the endbattle still has not started.

But I have not heared anything about what to do then, once it is over. I have not heared how the West plans to position himself. And the little we got told about the rebels, prevents me from putting my trust in them for the political changes Libya will face once Gaddafi's clan is (hopefully) dead. The revolution is tunisia has stalled and somewhat reversed, so is the revolution in Egypt with the fundamentalists hvaing reorgansied and now are the best set-iup group to dominate the political arena in the new found freedom.

I see no reason why it will go much different in Libya.

[the_tyrant]

its still too early to say, just look at somalia, Sierra Leon, etc
often with these African wars they just drag on for too long, with either side gaining an upper hand at certain times

[TLAM Strike]

Qaddafi fired off a Scud at a Rebel held city yesterday. Missed the target by miles apparently. :hmmm:

[Castout]

I'm disappointed with how Egypt is doing post Mubarak. It seems Mubarak trial is but a charade and the military ruler still doesn't get it that the people want REAL secular(nationalistic) democracy which respects human dignity. Democracy that respects individual rights, democracy which nurtures freedom of expression and freedom of press. If you want to pardon Mubarak then pardon him but do not give a charade trial.

If things continue those who died in Egypt will die in vain.

What is wrong with those in power? Too many stupid people. Egypt has been in the mud for far too long. They could become a great nation that its people deserve.

Or perhaps I am being too impatient. I can only hope that is the case.
I'm too well aware how it feels to be oppressed.

[Castout]

its still too early to say, just look at somalia, Sierra Leon, etc
often with these African wars they just drag on for too long, with either side gaining an upper hand at certain times

Nah Qaddafi is finished. It's just a matter of how. What his exit strategy will be.

You don't plant many mines when you are strong. You place many mines to stall for time.

Libya conflict will not drag on. It is not Afghanistan nor it is Iraq. It is a civil war that is not going to drag on though all this wouldn't be possible without NATO intervention.

My worry is that there will be another Gaddafi post Gaddafi. The people deserve better than that. Another worry is that the tribes must be able to unite post Gaddafi. Libya is greater than any one man or family or a tribe.

[Tribesman]

I'm disappointed with how Egypt is doing post Mubarak. It seems Mubarak trial is but a charade and the military ruler still doesn't get it that the people want REAL secular(nationalistic) democracy which respects human dignity.
Do you really expect the generals to give up power?

Libya conflict will not drag on.
Would you like to put money on that?

It is a civil war that is not going to drag on though all this wouldn't be possible without NATO intervention.

Just one question Castout. Excluding NATO how many different sides do you think are involved in the civil war?

[Castout]

Would you like to put money on that?

YES. I'd put my money that Gaddafi will be gone and that the effort won't drag on. I can't and won't put a date on it but it will not take long. I'd also put my money that Libya will not be the last Arab/Africa nation that has had a successful evolution in this string of Arab awakening.

[Tribesman]

YES. I'd put my money that Gaddafi will be gone and that the effort won't drag on.
So you think this civil war is just daffy, no wonder you didn't even hazard a guess about how many different groups are involved.

[Skybird]

Die Welt refers to unconfirmed reports about the Gaddafi clan having fled from Tripolis, being close the Algerian border now, protected by a tribe in that place. They should plan to cross the border by night.

http://www.welt.de/politik/article13556762/Diktator-Gaddafi-angeblich-aus-Tripolis-gefluechtet.html

If so, that means the endgame went faster than expected, which is good, and the whole clan escaped, which is bad.

[Gerald]

Gaddafi moves around all the time, spread rumors about being here and there, but he knows that his time is coming soon....very soon!

[Betonov]

If I know our prime idiot, Gadaffi will get an asylum in Slovenia and a lakeside villa

[Gerald]

If I know our prime idiot, Gadaffi will get an asylum in Slovenia and a lakeside villa Forget it, there is no chance for this, :nope:

[Castout]

So you think this civil war is just daffy, no wonder you didn't even hazard a guess about how many different groups are involved.

Well let's see that with time shall we whether they will descend to infighting or establish a new democracy. I have good faith they will not descend into infighting.

[Skybird]

The fighting right now cannot deceive anyone anymore that in principle it is over. Regular troops are defecting in the streets by the dozens now, leaving behind their uniforms. They are exhausted, demoralised, and out of supply.

Libya has some 130 tribes. Several dozen political and religious groups as well. All of them wanting their share of oil profits, their say in forming power.

That Gaddafi would not be able to hold out forever, was clear. The real interesting things, the real uncertain story starts just now.

On a sidenote, for Germany it is a shame to face. Hasn't Germany's elite claimed that the military action of Britain and France would be unappropriate to make a difference in regime change, making Germany lining up on the side of China and Russia...? :lol:

[Diopos]

...
making Germany lining up on the side of China and Russia...? :lol:

Cmon Sky, the shift of Germany to the East is obvious years now. There are resources it needs and new markets there. It also accounts, to a degree, for some of its euroscepticism. The Chineese don't need EU funds to buy BMWs do they?

.

[Skybird]

I admit, Diopos, the fourth Rei... I mean the Federal Republic of Germany only tried to save Libya by supporting China and Russia in order to stage a coup in Greece and make it our 17th federal state by financial erosion.

Back to planet Earth. French internet presence of "Liberation" and "Le Monde" reported just minutes ago that rebels claim they had captured Gaddafi's son Seif-al Islam. A name like from a cheap operetta. :haha: News so far not confirmed, though, so take it with care.

[Oberon]

It does look like a spearhead has made it into Tripoli proper with little resistance.

And is it just me or is Moussa Ibrahim the new Comical Ali? :hmmm:

[Skybird]

It does look like a spearhead has made it into Tripoli proper with little resistance.

Three spearheads I think, two from the East and South-East, and one from the South-West. I see a chance that a days-long bloody urban endbattle will be avoided, to me it seems as if the Gaddafi camp is accelerating collapse every hour. If the rebels are clever, they will treat any surrendering soldiers good, not mistreating them. If good treatment becomes known, more of Gaddafi'S troops will feel encouraged to dare the step of just giving up instead of fighting for their lives.

That female TV moderator who swore an oath in a live program from her studio desk, with a weapon in her hand - that made my laugh of the day. Operetta all around, really.

I will miss the crazy outfits and bombastic appearances of the old bastard! :D

[Oberon]

Yes, say what you like about him, but his TV appearances were always good for a laugh. I wonder what will become of him? Heck...I wonder what will become of Libya. Probably another Egypt.

Next stop Syria then I guess.

[MH]

Yes, say what you like about him, but his TV appearances were always good for a laugh. I wonder what will become of him?

MTV reality star.

[Oberon]

Sounds like three of Daffys sons are now in rebel hands.

MTV star.

:lol: Meet the Gadaffis

[MH]

:lol: Meet the Gadaffis


http://www.friendburst.com/file/pic/photo/2011/02/Joko_Londo-gaddafi-female-bodyguards2.jpg?t=4d63032402906

[Castout]

On a sidenote, for Germany it is a shame to face. Hasn't Germany's elite claimed that the military action of Britain and France would be unappropriate to make a difference in regime change, making Germany lining up on the side of China and Russia...? :lol:

it's all Merkel's fault :O:. The lady doesn't want to take any risk even when it is for the good of many ppl. She has gained a reputation as risk averse leader. The road of total risk aversion is actually . . . . ironically, risky.

However Germany did send/lend some funds I think. . . . towards the end cough cough cough.

[Skybird]

German media: the personal guard of Gaddafi has surrendered. Three sons have been arrested. With these arrests the clan has no future in Libya - to catch the sons was even more important than to get the old man himself. The daugther seems to be on the run.

Game over.

[Oberon]

Two South African aircraft have landed in Tripoli and parked up.

Could be Daffy doing a runner? :hmmm:

[Skybird]

it's all Merkel's fault :O:. The lady doesn't want to take any risk even when it is for the good of many ppl. She has gained a reputation as risk averse leader. The road of total risk aversion is actually . . . . ironically, risky.

However Germany did send/lend some funds I think. . . . towards the end cough cough cough.

German GSG9 special units are engaged in securing the German diplomatic bureau in Bengasi, it has become known today, and two days ago it was revealed that 11 German officers are engaged in target selection in according NATO staff offices.

The Greens and the opposition are "fuming".

[Jimbuna]

Not long now...possibly this tome tomorrow and it will all be over.

[Oberon]

Not long now...possibly this tome tomorrow and it will all be over.

I'd say that give it an hour or two and it'll all be over. Well...the first part of it anyway. It won't all be over for years yet. :03:

[MH]

Spokesman Moussa Ibrahim said Gadhafi's government is ready for immediate negotiations with rebels, and has asked NATO to convince the rebel forces to halt the attack on Tripoli.
Speaking on state television, Ibrahim said Gadhafi was prepared to negotiate directly with the head of the NTC.
The head of the NTC said on Al Arabiya television that the rebel fighters will halt their offensive if Gadhafi announces his departure.
Mustapha Abd El Jalil added that the rebel forces would give Gadhafi and his sons a safe passage out of the country.

........

[Oberon]

........

I'd say that Daffy is doing a runner right now to that South African plane..if and it's a big IF he is still in Tripoli, which considering his recent speeches have been coming from what appears to be a satellite phone, is debatable.

However, in terms of power, Daffy has none now, he's history, even if he's still in Libya he has lost the capital of Libya, it's a major major propaganda victory for the rebels and his only real options now are to flee across the border, surrender or get on one of those planes to Zimbabwe or Angola.

[Iron Budokan]

Watching it now on Al Jazeera English. Pretty amazing history happening right now.

[Skybird]

I'd say that Daffy is doing a runner right now to that South African plane..if and it's a big IF he is still in Tripoli, which considering his recent speeches have been coming from what appears to be a satellite phone, is debatable.

However, in terms of power, Daffy has none now, he's history, even if he's still in Libya he has lost the capital of Libya, it's a major major propaganda victory for the rebels and his only real options now are to flee across the border, surrender or get on one of those planes to Zimbabwe or Angola.
Algeria also is an option. There are rumours that he is close the Algerian border.

[Oberon]

Algeria also is an option. There are rumours that he is close the Algerian border.

This is true, I'd be very surprised if he was still in Tripoli. His presidential guard has been rumoured to have surrendered, so wherever he is, he's not in the usual places. Although, apparently there is gunfire around his compound at the moment, so it could be that he is still there and this is the final hour.

I'm going to have to hit the sack now, have to work tomorrow...which is annoying because I don't want to miss this. When I get back from work tomorrow it'll all be over, this much is sure.

Well...I shall sign off with congratulating the rebel forces, no matter what their ideology they have fought well against an initially superior force and they deserve this victory. What happens next though is anyones best guess, and all we can hope for is that the people of Libya remember the help we gave them and that we don't see Libya become a hotbed for extremism.

[Castout]

German GSG9 special units are engaged in securing the German diplomatic bureau in Bengasi, it has become known today, and two days ago it was revealed that 11 German officers are engaged in target selection in according NATO staff offices.

.

Aah not too bad then but still very pale in comparison with Obama, Britain and France role :D

Watching it now on Al Jazeera English. Pretty amazing history happening right now.

Indeed!!

[Torplexed]

This is true, I'd be very surprised if he was still in Tripoli. His presidential guard has been rumoured to have surrendered, so wherever he is, he's not in the usual places.

Who knows? by this time next week he could be living under the bed in Hugo Chavez's chemotherapy ward.

[the_tyrant]

Who knows? by this time next week he could be living under the bed in Hugo Chavez's chemotherapy ward.

or in bed in robert mugabe

[Castout]

There's unconfirmed news that Gaddafi has been captured near border with Tunisia.

I thought he would fall victim to NATO bomb on his escape.

[Dowly]

^ From Al-Jazeera:

The ICC has confirmed that Saif al-Islam Gaddafi has been detained, and NOT his father, Muammar Gaddafi.

[TLAM Strike]

and two days ago it was revealed that 11 German officers are engaged in target selection in according NATO staff offices.

Unfortunately all the targets fragged for that mission by those 11 where in London... :O:

[Castout]

^ From Al-Jazeera:


Yes couple of Gaddafi's sons have been captured in Tripoli and now detained.

There's also unconfirmed report that Gaddafi himself has been captured near border with Tunisia. We'll see if this is true.

[papa_smurf]

Pictures of rebels entry into Tripoli:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-14609880

[Jimbuna]

Still no sign of Gaddafi despite the capture of his sons Muhammad and Saif.

South Africa have ruled out any possibility of him being given exile there.

[Skybird]

Tunisia and South Africa both signed an obligation to hand over criminals wanted by The Hague. This rules them out as exiles for Gaddafi, I think. Algeria however has not ratified the treaty and thus must not hand him over. Also, some tribes in the West - towards Algeria - have some loyalty to Gaddafi.

Germany's foreign clown Guido Westerwelle was not shy enough to not trying to prove again what an arrogant stupid sucker he is, claiming a good ammount of the fame for having brought down Gaddafi today - because sanctions proved to have been so very very very important for toppling the regime, you know. :D But in fact, Germany stands stupid on the stage for all to see, with lowered trousers and bare bottom. Sorry, Guido - couldn't resist the word game. :O: Your constant displays of arrogance and moralising just makes me think dirty things...

What Brits and French rightfully could take real offence from is that Germany and Westerwelle have not had a sin gle word of Thanks for the troops envolved, and the nations, no matter what thewir real motivsation has been. Also, That Germany and Wetserwelle still refuse to admit that their deciison and policy simply was this: wrong. It can show some grace and wits to admit a mistake when one realises it. Not so in case of Germany and Westerwelle. Instead, in our feuilletons the know-it-alls already boost with their brilliant ideas again on what moral principles the Libyans must follow in order to become a state acceptable to the German taste. As if anyone would ask Germany these days! :lol: But the single fact that Germany cannot weasel around is that without the Allied air war against Gaddafi, a regime change in Libya would have remained to be impossible, and that the intensification of the air war opened the path for the rebels towards Tripolis.

I do not know Britain's motivation to take up a stand against Gaddafi, maybe it is some longterm oil interest - humanitarian concerns certainly were not the reason, modern warfare simply is too expensive for such archaic motivations. And France'S reason probably have plenty to do with hidden financial deals and weapon deals Sarkozy was involved in and n ow tries to hide, becasue they threaten him during the French run for the presidential election. Also, it is an important project of France to try to establish a French-dominated Mediterranean Union.

On the Gaddafi clan, I just learned today that therer were twice as many sons than I knew, and so the chase for them is only half over with one son claimed to have been killed and three arrested. Three more sons and the daughter still seem to be free. To prevent them from causing future problems from the underground or exile, they need to be caught or killed, too.

The rebel's government council I do not trust. 12 of the 15 names it is formed of, have been working for Gaddafi and were responsible for many of the crimes and the injustice Gaddafi carried out against Libya. They were not just "Mitläufer", but were active executors of Gaddafi'S policies, in high ranks and with high responsibility. Some people may believe that all of a sudden they discovered their human kindness and morality. I don't.

And an interesting comment their was on German TV today, quoting some results from what in German is called "Konfliktforschung", historic research on the origin and consequences of international conflicts. And the empirical basis from historic results shows that the overwhelming majority of revolutions carried out with war and violence did not result in democratic and peaceful societies, but more civil war after the tyranny was toppled, they said.

The real challenge for Libyans has just begun today. There is no state institutions, no structures, no experience with running a state administration. Everything was tailored and design to fit the Gaddafi-clan'S grab of control, since over a generation (42 years, tpo be precise). There is plenty of open bills, and 130 tribes some of which have a history of long conflicts with each other. There is serious concern of acts of revenge against captured Gaddafi loyalists, which will give rise to new hate.

So far the rebels just had to aim at the enemy and pull triggers, or hunker down when under fire. The story so far - was the easier part.

I am - no surprise - also concerned about fundamentalism also raising its ugly face in Libya now, like it does in Egypt and Tunisia. Libya'S East seems to be more vulnerable for that, than the West, they say.

the only positive resource Libya has and that is beyond doubt, is that finances will not be their problem. They have sufficient oil. Everything else is beyond predictability.

[Castout]

I have to vent this out

The very people who opposed any kind of intervention in Libya and strongly opposed the deployment of infantry forces on the ground are now calling for boots on the ground.


I must say to them GO FCK YOURSELF. FIND A CORNER AND DIE THERE. HAVE YOU GOT NO SHAME?! WHAT A PIECE OF TRASH!!!:nope:

This is NOT your AFGHANISTAN PLAYGROUND nor Iraq. THIS IS NOT ABOUT YOU. You opposed help in the form of boots on the ground and now you must live with that decision. SHAME, SHAME ON YOU.

There's no justification whatsoever for deployment of foreign troops in Libya NOW. Unless situation descends into infighting chaos.

[Skybird]

I always opposed deployment of combat troops in Libya, I said that in several threads loud and clearly and repeatedly, and I still rule that out now and for the future, so what's up...? :stare:

Small special units I had no problem with, since I understand that that is needed to identify and mark targets for the air strikes and coordinate with rebel commanders.

I also aoppose your statement at the end, "There's no justification whatsoever for deployment of foreign troops in Libya NOW. Unless situation descends into infighting chaos. " That would be even less a reason to go in, because then it would be even more their exclusive business than ours.

[Tribesman]

There's no justification whatsoever for deployment of foreign troops in Libya NOW. Unless situation descends into infighting chaos.
Since the whole situation from start to now has been infighting chaos what are you on about?

[Castout]

Sending boots on the ground was risky then but it would be foolish now.
It would sabotage trust and add to the distrust of the distrustful and the stupid and the stupid cynic.

It is potentially divisive and destabilizing putting boots on the ground now and would vindicate Gaddafi and radicals.

The world is not for indulging one's personal desires alone. It should be run on the basis of goodwill and good faith.

Be responsible to accept the consequences of your own action or lack of it. Those people who were against any intervention to help the Libyan people should not be calling for boots on the ground EVER. Please GROW UP. About time. Learn the meaning of goodwill. Stop being a parasite and a disease and an impediment to progress and the betterment of your fellow mankind. Start to contribute positively to life.


Since the whole situation from start to now has been infighting chaos what are you on about?

:doh: Ok, you're free to live your world I guess but when are you going to finish making one excuse after another and start . . . . living?

[RickC Sniper]

Much confusion now about the rebels claims. One of Gadafi's sons, supposedly captured, appears before reporters.

It sounds like nothing but bold talk by Seif, but his presence contradicts rebel's claims.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44224936/ns/world_news-mideast_n_africa/#.TlMMPIKwXSw

As rebel forces consolidated their control over Tripoli amid signs of disorganization within the ranks, the manhunt continued Monday for Col. Moammar Gadhafi, who was said by his son to be alive and well.
Three of Gadhafi's sons — Seif al-Islam Gadhafi, Mohammed Gadhafi and Saadi Gadhafi — were reported to have been captured by the rebels, but Seif later appeared before reporters at a Tripoli hotel, and Al Jazeera reported that Mohammed managed to escape.
Seif Gadhafi appeared at the Rixos Hotel late Monday night and spoke to foreign journalists there.
Asked whether his father was safe, Seif Gadhafi said, "Of course." In an exchange captured on television, he said the rebels had fallen into a "trap" in Tripoli and that loyalist forces had "broken the spine of rebels."
Seif also said that Tripoli was under government control and that he did not care about an arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court in The Hague seeking him and his father for crimes against humanity.

[RickC Sniper]

I have to vent this out

The very people who opposed any kind of intervention in Libya and strongly opposed the deployment of infantry forces on the ground are now calling for boots on the ground.


Who are the people you address this to?

[Tribesman]

Ok, you're free to live your world I guess but when are you going to finish making one excuse after another and start . . . . living?
When are you going to realise its a civil war:doh:

Who are the people you address this to?
Perhaps it is about the people who bankrolled one faction but didn't want to get their hands too dirty, but have how found that a different faction has taken the big prize and want to get in on the action to ensure that their investment pays off by preventing their faction from being side lined.
It's nothing new. Look at any dozens of cases from last century
Civil wars themselves are messy affairs both during and after, but foriegn involvement in civil wars is even messier and can have longer lasting mess afterwards.
But I don't think Castout understands this and is just on some moralistic anti daffy crusade which is detatched from reality.

[Skybird]

Much confusion now about the rebels claims. One of Gadafi's sons, supposedly captured, appears before reporters.

It sounds like nothing but bold talk by Seif, but his presence contradicts rebel's claims.

Or indicates just a delay in information flow inside their rows. Over here papers write that Seif was captured indeed, but got freed by loyalists during a fight.

Rebels now bringing in reinforcements from all the country. The loyalaists are isolated inside their strongholds. Once their ammo dumbs are empty, it will be over, I expect.

Sporadic fighting also flares up in the West in some Gaddafi-loyal villages. The Berber tribes in the West however, continue to fight against Gaddafi. Their final taking-sides with the rebels and their thrust towards Tripolis are seen as the major cause of the balance tipping in favour of the rebels. Soon after the Berbers showed up in force, NATO started to pave them and the advancing rebels from the East the way to Tripolis.

German foreign clown Guido Westerwelle played schoolmarm again this morning and already lectures us again on what now has to be done with Gaddafi, and on The Hague, and on You-know-the-sermon. Ein Prachtbursche, der Kerl.

Germany now is expected to repair the damage it did to its reputation by paying for the reconstruction of Libya, and offering more support and assistance than normally would have been the case. Not only did the foreign political clowns-show fail in utmost diplomatic disaster, it also becomes much more costly for the German taxpayer than it would have been if Germany would have suppported the Allies from the beginning on. Well done, Guido. You are a true blessing for the grace of our country! :yeah:

Spiegel is not any less harsh on him and Merkel:
Nato's success marks bitter failure for Merkel (http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,781828,00.html)