Could a Commerce Raider work on the modern Ocean? , What would it look like ?

[Mush Martin]

In the modern world, is a 21st Century Commerce raider a viable
way of waging economic war?. Could one maintain a secret cruise
and effectively disrupt enemy commerce?. If So What would it look
like, it seems a no brainer that it would probably take the form of a
chameleon like Cargo vessel that could appear as different cargo
ships under different flags, and stealthy drones with anti ship missiles
seems a good way to go about things, but the question stands,
Could you make it viable on an information age ocean ?.


MM

[Skybird]

Somalia.

Street of Malakka.

The last has been tamed somewhat. The first is blossoming.

[Platapus]

Perhaps a better question would be how long could a modern commerce raider operate?

Any commerce raider could operate at least once. :)

Also, you should define what you mean by commerce raider. When I think of commerce raiders I don't think of Somalian pirates. I am thinking more along the lines of the Emden. Since you are asking the question, how do you define commerce raider?

Also if a commerce raider's definition includes being controlled by a state government, how would it operate without a declaration of war or a state of OOTW existing?

Or are you thinking of a terrorist type of commerce raider?

It is tough to answer this question without some bounding of the issue.

[August]

The biggest problem for any modern commerce raider would I'd think be preventing it's prey from getting off a distress call. Gone are the days of having to warn up the ships only wireless transmitter and tap out a lengthy morse code message before having the antenna shot off by gunfire. Nowadays a simple handheld device can transmit actual live video of the attack to anywhere in the world instantly.

Then there is modern military response times to consider. Air assets can be on site nearly anywhere in the world within hours. Like Platapus said they'd get away with the first attack but would not survive for long after that.

[Stealhead]

I think he means more like what the Germans had in WWII and WWI a ship looking like a merchant but really not.I think they have used similar set ups in the Straights of Malacca and in South East Asia sometimes.

Of course they both take advantage of looking non-threatening until ready to strike.There was an article some years back in the 90s in Popular Mechanics about the tech that the Malacca/South East Asian pirates based on what captured ones had on them and they had some pretty bad stuff NVGs all kind of things and they also loved to attack at night time.

I saw a doc a while back about South East Asian pirates who are much better organized than the Somalis they seem to know when the heat is on them to find other lines of work where as the Somalis seem totally desperate maybe this is because the South East Asian pirates have been active for 30 or 40 years to some extent and Im sure that they also earn money via other illegal activities.While the Somalis are just kind of running around.

I'd say a German style raider would be overkill when you could achieve the same goal with smaller boats if you want the cargo(at least in SEA)then you can take the ship to a safe sanctuary and take what you want.

And for an official military modern weapon systems make the need for a commerce raider not needed.

[Mush Martin]

When I think of commerce raiders I don't think of Somalian pirates. I am thinking more along the lines of the Emden.


Me too, as for effectiveness a worthy anti surface stealth drone
could operate at strategically safe distances from the ship to avoid
implication. just a thought. equipped with heavy jamming may defeat
the victim giving it away.

[Mush Martin]

To be clear this is a Nation Sponsored declared war on the open Ocean
involving Combatants that largely rely on shipping, and by implication
of the question, one of the combatants uses economy of force.


lets call it the unlikely England v Japan. somewhat of a good match

[edit] lets further assume no assets of outside nations.

[CCIP]

I'm pretty sure that sounds like a job for an SSN. I don't think there is any advantage for attempting to use surface vessels for the job anymore. Except possibly cost, but that would largely be negated by utter inefficiency of keeping anything on the surface. Any jamming measures would only go so far before it's picked up, photographed, and tracked down. Once it is, no amount of stealth paint and jamming will allow it to hide - a sub, on the other hand, still has some chance to hide. Even subs, which would never be seen or heard by vessels they attacked, wouldn't be immune to eventually being found by enough ASW assets - all they really need to know is a general area of its operation, and they already have a good chance of finding it. But with something that floats on the surface, that chance is 100%.

I think a modern commerce raider would be a small, quiet SSN with special design adaptations for that purpose. I could see an adaptation that would not be designed to fight other subs or carry out land attacks, limiting its armament, sensors and power, but optimizing it for stealth and ability to track and follow surface ships, with non-lethal ways of stopping its targets discretely and some sort of detachable vehicles for boarding/jamming/fire support purposes. But the sub itself would always stand off and remain stealthy.

[Stealhead]

I would agree here even for a small country it would be more cost effective to operate a few modern diesel subs to raid commerce than to operate a raider.The down side of the raider is once you use it they will figure out that you have it and hunt it down I think it would also be hard to hide the fact that you had one prior to a war starting.

The submarine is the best weapon at hand for attacking commerce shipping because it can truly hide rather well.Another issue against a commerce raider in modern times is how do you hide your guns?In the old days this was very easy but in modern times FLIR systems would be able to see the heat being given off by a hidden weapon system not to mention that the raiders own radar which it would need to search for targets with would give it away as they know what it truly was by the RADAR beams it was sending out(you can tell alot about a radar system by its own beams).

I'd really say that WWII showed that any ship being a commerce raider wont be successful for very long the Germans famously even used warships in this role early in WWII and we all know how that turned out in the end.

The combatants would have to be two fairly small nations militarily speaking for a commerce raider to be viable and only be targeting locally owned shipping.The other issue is the rest of the would be concerned about their own shipping interests and have their own naval forces in the region to protect their interests.

[CCIP]

I think it speaks volumes about the viability of a surface commerce raider that most nations wouldn't even consider a diesel submarine viable as a raider on the high seas, at least against a sophisticated enough foe. Having to snorkel every once in a while is already considered enough of a liability for detection on the high seas... That and the inability to get out of an area at high speed underwater really do compromise even diesel subs, unless their raiding grounds are narrow, shallow seas with lots of places to hide.

Another idea: a large, well-equipped, stealthy (VTOL?) seaplane - or maybe even an 'ekranoplan'/WIG aircraft may well be a viable commerce raider. Again, it'd probably be a platform that would stand off, launching fire support and boarding parties from afar, but it could be a way to target and capture ships on the high seas before any sort of help can arrive. Actually, I think that could have been a role well-suited to the Caspian Sea Monster, assuming it could sortie undetected or loiter somewhere far at sea...

[krashkart]

How safe would a surface raider be from satellite reconnaissance? I realize that it might be like looking for a needle in a haystack. But once it has attacked the general area of its presence would be known. :ping:

[Falkirion]

In terms of commerce raiding are we talking ships being sunk, captured or taking cargo off the target?

[the_tyrant]

How safe would a surface raider be from satellite reconnaissance? I realize that it might be like looking for a needle in a haystack. But once it has attacked the general area of its presence would be known. :ping:

you have a good point, its probably not going to be very safe from satellites and stuff

[Mush Martin]

Sinking of enemy commerce only

[Jimbuna]

A surface vessel would more than likely succeed the first and second time possibly but with the amount of satellite technology out there I doubt it would survive long once assets were assigned to the area.

A submarine might last a little while longer but again, once assets were deployed to the area its time would be short lived.

The only time extension I can imagine for either of the two would be if no eye witnesses/survivors were left to give the vital details to what was doing the deed.

[tater]

Yes. It's called a stealth aircraft. Using a sub or other slow-moving craft is a guarantee of failure vs any modern foe for a protracted campaign.

[Oberon]

For sinking enemy commerce?

http://warfare.ru/0702ey70/update/jan2005/5/677.jpg

Of course, the trick will be disguising the refueling tender and keeping the codes encrypted so that no-one knows where she'll be refueling and rearming, but an Amur could attack, withdraw and attack elsewhere for weeks if not months before being done in if she had a good captain. Heck, she might well survive the war.
She's cheaper than a nuke boat and easier to hide, quieter and smaller.
She's slow, but if you leave the datum as soon as you fire your torpedoes, then by the time the escorts are on the scene you are quietly out of the scene.
Pick your targets well and you'd be laughing.

Of course, then the convoys would start and that would be a bit harder, but wolfpack tactics would still be viable, focusing on the escorts first to get the enemy helos out of the way and then using the rest of the torpedoes and Stallions (or whatever the Amur carries in ASMs) to whack the commerce, then go deep and quiet before the P-3s arrive.

Alternatively there's the good old Kitchen ASM from Tu-22Ms, a squadron of those could ruin a convoys day if the convoy didn't have a carrier with it or enough decent SAM coverage. :hmmm: Heck, even if it had both if you combined a Tu-22M attack with a Kilo attack and threw in an Oscar II with a Shipwreck barrage within the same window...well...I wouldn't want to be the CIC Radar operator who had to deal with that lot coming in. You'd be shouting Vampire for six minutes straight. :haha:

[Betonov]

OK, here's my idea.

A commerce raider, disquised as a civilian cargo ship starts following a target, either radar, satelite, anything.
Plots her course and intercepts about 20* miles infront of the target
Releases a drone sub or a ROV. The drone waits under the surface while the raider moves a little out of sight.
When the target gets close the drone creeps up to it, grabs hold of the hull and releases an electro-magnetic shock, frying all electronics on board, leaving the ship without power and communication.
Raider intercepts and boards


* just a random number, for the sake of argument

[CCIP]

I dunno, I think SSNs have a good chance then because their ability to dash after making their attack. By the time even air ASW assets arrive, they will be within tens of miles of where the attack took place. That is of course assuming that the raiding will focus on distant, open seas with support always some flight time away. In that sense, SSNs are probably better than aircraft because they maintain a chance of never being detected and the direction from which they attacked or where they retreated to never actually verified.

SSKs won't have that luxury though. They will still be within a few miles of the attack site when long-range aircraft arrive, and have a much narrower margin for making their escape. They still stand a chance, but it's much trickier for them.

[CCIP]

OK, here's my idea.

A commerce raider, disquised as a civilian cargo ship starts following a target, either radar, satelite, anything.
Plots her course and intercepts about 20* miles infront of the target
Releases a drone sub or a ROV. The drone waits under the surface while the raider moves a little out of sight.
When the target gets close the drone creeps up to it, grabs hold of the hull and releases an electro-magnetic shock, frying all electronics on board, leaving the ship without power and communication.
Raider intercepts and boards


* just a random number, for the sake of argument

Cool idea, but again, I think it'll only be a matter of time before the enemy figures out what's going on.

Although this reminds me of another reason why SSKs aren't really suited: raiding in littoral/narrow waters is probably much better accomplished by 'smart' mobile mines. Which can be laid by practically anything, including a disguised merchant of course. But that merchant needs to be out of there before those things activate, or else it's again pretty likely the enemy will quickly catch on.

[kraznyi_oktjabr]

There is two important things which make commerce raiding trickier than earlier.

1. Most cargo ships are equipped with EPIRB buoy which automatically activates when ship sinks and sends location and information of ship just sunk.
2. In modern GMDSS compatible digital radios generic emergency signal, which includes ship's IMO number, location etc., can be sent by pressing just one button. With few seconds of time available you can add info on what happened. No need for verbal communications anymore.

EPIRB sends information both via VHF and satellite. With radio there have to be another vessel or shore radio station in range.

[tater]

Again the foe matters. I tend to assume the US is the target, so it is an unlikely type of warfare. As soon as we know commerce is being attacked, we have asw air assets near shipping lanes. The SSN will not have very long to egress the attack area. We'd also keep our boats around.

Honestly, stealthed aircraft would have a far better chance. Dash in, fire some over the horizon anti-shipping missiles, and scoot.

[Mush Martin]

Good Posts all :up:

[Rockstar]

There is two important things which make commerce raiding trickier than earlier.

1. Most cargo ships are equipped with EPIRB buoy which automatically activates when ship sinks and sends location and information of ship just sunk.
2. In modern GMDSS compatible digital radios generic emergency signal, which includes ship's IMO number, location etc., can be sent by pressing just one button. With few seconds of time available you can add info on what happened. No need for verbal communications anymore.

EPIRB sends information both via VHF and satellite. With radio there have to be another vessel or shore radio station in range.

Add to that commercial ships are equipped with transponders making their position known 24 hours a day 7 days a week. Also the private global communications technology available even to the lowest of crew members like SAT phones. Makes it hard to be sneaky

[Betonov]

Add to that commercial ships are equipped with transponders making their position known 24 hours a day 7 days a week. Also the private global communications technology available even to the lowest of crew members like SAT phones. Makes it hard to be sneaky

And if an EMP fries the electronics, they'll know where the signal stopped.

That fries my idea :cry:

[August]

Ok here's August Evils evil modern commerce raider plan:

http://home.comcast.net/%7Erdsterling/pwpimages/dr_evil.gif

To sink enemy vessels we develop robotic limpet mines. A self propelled high explosive magnetic mine that attachs itself to the hull of a target ship and can be detonated hours or even days later by either timer or remote control. These mines alone or in groups (for say seeding an enemy harbor) are deployed from hatches located below the waterline of the commerce raider when it passes in the vicinity of a target ship.

To capture enemy vessels we use midget submarines. Same general idea as the limpet mine but instead of high explosives it carries a prize crew as it's payload. They deploy, again from underwater hatches and attach to the targets hull, then they wait for the opportune moment to take her by boarding (Arrr).

[Rockstar]

I visited the headquarters of a well known towing company recently. In the main room was this huge electronic map, much like the 'big board' in the movie Dr. Strangelove. On it was the name, location, course, speed, last port of call, next port of call, ETA, and cargo of every towboat and barge they owned.

The 'Big Eye' sees everything these days.

[Platapus]

Sharks with frickin laser beams on their heads. :up:

[Jimbuna]

Sharks with frickin laser beams on their heads. :up:

But not dolphins with mines strapped to their backs please :nope:

[Platapus]

But not dolphins with mines strapped to their backs please :nope:


Day of the Dolphin. Very sad movie. :wah:

I still tear up when Scott tells the dolphin to tell the other dolphins to never talk to humans.

[August]

But not dolphins with mines strapped to their backs please :nope:


Would you believe robotic dolphins with magnetic mines in their bellies?

http://images.usatoday.com/money/_photos/2004/05/26/maney-maxwell-smart.jpg

[TLAM Strike]

Might work once but even the “Dreaded Pirates of the African Horn” are almost immediately trailed the moment they strike and the only reason NATO can't just take them out is the hostages they have.

But I don't think you guys are thinking big enough...

An armed merchantman might be quite effective as a surprise weapon to cripple an enemy with a quick strike of missiles. Novator makes a missile launch system for the SS-N-27 that fits four rounds in an ISO shipping container. That could do a lot of damage if it sailed in to Baltimore harbor and fires a few dozen LACMs or it got within sight of a US CSG and let fly a bunch of ASMs from point blank range. Boats like this are what we like to call stage one of a “Red Dawn” or “Debt of Honor” type scenario. Great part is you don't even need to own the boat! Just send some shipping containers overseas and wait for FEDEX to say its unloaded in the states and wham!

[Jimbuna]

Would you believe robotic dolphins with magnetic mines in their bellies?

http://images.usatoday.com/money/_photos/2004/05/26/maney-maxwell-smart.jpg

Okay...I'll settle for those :DL

[Rockstar]

A successful modern commerce raider would I think look something like this and need a cloaking device.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Rtnlwg9WArY/TVnvZa2d2eI/AAAAAAAAAVY/cOu-_hTZjCE/s1600/star+trek+iv+Klingon+ship.jpg

[Betonov]

A successful modern commerce raider would I think look something like this and need a cloaking device.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Rtnlwg9WArY/TVnvZa2d2eI/AAAAAAAAAVY/cOu-_hTZjCE/s1600/star+trek+iv+Klingon+ship.jpg

Nice, and it even looks like a humble fishing trawler.