Arab unrest: Winners and losers

[Gerald]

The revolutionary storm has shaken the Middle East to its very foundation, and regardless of what happens next, the region's state system will never be the same, says Professor Fawaz A Gerges, director of the Middle East Centre at the London School of Economics.

The people's movements are not just calling for a tinkering of the system, but to restructure the entire authoritarian system along more pluralistic and socially just lines.

The winners are the people of the Middle East who have been politically oppressed for decades. Millions of voiceless Arabs and Muslims have regained their voice.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12599515

Note: 28 February 2011 Last updated at 14:56 GMT

[Skybird]

Let's wait and see.

That article sounds a bit early.

[tater]

I'll believe "more pluralistic" when I see it, then see it survive some election cycles (peaceful changes of government are required proof of any democratic system).

Libya can go either way. Their economy is all oil. It will be a powerful incentive for someone else to come in and simply take the place of the current despot.

The level of insanity in belief in that part of the world makes me not hold out much hope for secular governments.

[Jimbuna]

I'm thinking that what happens/if anything at all in Saudi Arabia will be key to how the Middle East region turns out.

[Takeda Shingen]

I'm thinking that what happens/if anything at all in Saudi Arabia will be key to how the Middle East region turns out.

You might be right about that.

[NeonSamurai]

Frankly my concern is that these countries will go the way that Iran did, and become more Muslim fundamentalist, which could potentially have some very dire consequences. Revolts and revolutions rarely seem to result in more liberal and secular societies, rather they tend to go extreme.

[TLAM Strike]

Revolts and revolutions rarely seem to result in more liberal and secular societies, rather they tend to go extreme.

A secular society can't be extremist?

http://img688.imageshack.us/img688/9120/sovietcoa.png

[em2nought]

Israel better sharpen up, they seemed a bit sloppy last go round. Someone should be ready to drop the hammer(fat man/little boy style) on a misbehaving arab child state(s). Won't be da big "O", just like it wasn't duh "W". :arrgh!:

[TLAM Strike]

Israel better sharpen up, they seemed a bit sloppy last go round. Someone should be ready to drop the hammer(fat man/little boy style) on a misbehaving arab child state(s). Won't be da big "O", just like it wasn't duh "W". :arrgh!:
Not so sure, if these states all go Islamist and team up maybe they will try and challenge the west... and by the west I mean the USA so we can give them a nice stand up fight and roll over them 1991 style... :hmmm:

[Skybird]

Israel should learn a very uncomfortable lesson from what it sees in Egypt, Tunisia, Lybia. How many Palestinians and Arabs live right in the middle of their society - 20% or so, climbing? These peoples' birth rate is how many times higher than the Israelis'? And their Jewish army and police is how big in numbers, to keep any possible revolts in the middle of their dual society in check?

See how easy military control of demographic situations can fail.

Yes, dear EU, pressing Israel for accepting the "return" of even more Palestinians into Israel - that surely is the way for stability there. :dead:

We have had Turkish emperor Erdoghan in germany this weekend. I wish there would not only be Arab unrest, but a German revolt, too. Once again he called for Turks in Germany to put their Turkish identity over Germany, and not to integrate into German society, whilealso calling for Germany stopping to make inner political decisioons without asking for Ankara's acceptance first.

I think instead of demanding Turks to speak German in Germany, Germans in Germany better should learn to speak Turkish. That would be true integration. Of the Germans.

[CCIP]

I for one am curious what that will do in terms of possibly resurrecting pan-arabism as a viable idea. Which may be a somewhat scary thought for the West. However this is too early to be having this discussion.

[the_tyrant]

We have had Turkish emperor Erdoghan in germany this weekend. I wish there would not only be Arab unrest, but a German revolt, too. Once again he called for Turks in Germany to put their Turkish identity over Germany, and not to integrate into German society, whilealso calling for Germany stopping to make inner political decisioons without asking for Ankara's acceptance first.


Thats an a-hole move:down:
reminds me of how Charles de Gaulle came to Canada and supported the independence of Quebec

[Castout]

Those Arabs are turning from these

http://www.netstate.com/states/symb/birds/images/de_blue_hen_chicken.jpg


into these

http://www.rspb.org.uk/images/cache/goldeneagle_300_tcm9-139839_v1.jpg

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vtFqQ1K0Ils

Salute! :salute:

I wouldn't be worry about the consequences of these evolutions to Israel or the West.
What I'm worried about are US and Europe intervention in sabotaging these movement to erect another dictatorship. Like it or not the West only care about their own freedom and their own rights first and foremost.

In the end the rising of democratic and free Arab states would strengthen the numbers of the free nations! That's sooo cool!

Now if only my fellow South East Asians had half the guts and aspirations as high as these noble people. Just yesterday I saw either a Malaysian or Singaporean human rights lawyer interviewed on Al Jazeera about the Arab uprisings. I wasn't sure whether I wanted to laugh or cry, probably both at the same time. A human rights lawyer in authoritarian regime? What a bad joke. A clown. Damn chicken. Damn hypocrite. If the person was genuine he would have already suffered and wouldn't be on television being interviewed.

One more nation should follow Tunisia, Egypt and Libya to evolve. Libyans haven't gotten theirs yet. They would need international support especially food if not food and arms. It's revolting and shameful to see the international community to wait to see which side was winning before making strong statement and taking strong action to stand on that side.

And the one which comes after Libya would probably be the last of these strings of nation whose people chose to rise against dictatorship and succeed. Libya is most probably the most bloodied of them all.

[August]

I have hope. Communications is key. Contact with the outside world is so much more prevalent now than it was in 1979.

[Feuer Frei!]

Once again he called for Turks in Germany to put their Turkish identity over Germany, and not to integrate into German society, whilealso calling for Germany stopping to make inner political decisioons without asking for Ankara's acceptance first.
What are his motives for these stupid calls?
I don't know much about him but what levels of infuence, if you will, does he have on German Turks?
Whichever way you look at it, he is wrong.

I think instead of demanding Turks to speak German in Germany, Germans in Germany better should learn to speak Turkish. That would be true integration. Of the Germans.
Is that what he said? Or is that what you think?

[TLAM Strike]

I have hope. Communications is key. Contact with the outside world is so much more prevalent now than it was in 1979.
Exactly, communication leads to the free exchange of ideas. The lack of that in the Islamic world for the past thousand years is what has been holding them back.

[August]

Exactly, communication leads to the free exchange of ideas. The lack of that in the Islamic world for the past thousand years is what has been holding them back.

I wonder if the Iranian revolution would have turned out like it did had the common people had the same degree of access to the outside world.

[tater]

Exactly, communication leads to the free exchange of ideas. The lack of that in the Islamic world for the past thousand years is what has been holding them back.

There is much self-censorship due to religion.

I'm not sanguine about things at all.

[Tribesman]

What are his motives for these stupid calls?

Its Sky off on one again.:doh:
Erdogan might be a crazy loon but that isn't what he said.
He said they must integrate, that is a bit different from skybirds world where that translates as "not integrate".
He did however say they shouldn't assimilate which isn't the same as integrate.

But anyway time for a Godwin.....
See how easy military control of demographic situations can fail.

There was this austrian bloke who failed in his military control of a demographic situation, apparently he had this thing about people of a certain religion taking over Europe and the world.

[Gerald]

Exactly, communication leads to the free exchange of ideas. The lack of that in the Islamic world for the past thousand years is what has been holding them back. communication, it is certainly important, but of course that they concerned countries really want change, and that not everything is good on paper

[Penguin]

What are his motives for these stupid calls?
I don't know much about him but what levels of infuence, if you will, does he have on German Turks?
Whichever way you look at it, he is wrong.


Hard to say how huge his influence is. Despite Erdogans claims or (wishful) thinking from some people, Turks don't necessarily equal islamistic and/or nationalistic. So he is in fact seen controversial in the turkish community.
His utterings that being against islam means being against Turks are not believed by everyone.

There were about 10000 people who watched him, they came from other cities and neighbouring countries. Protests came from german conservative groups, kurds, lefts wanted to protest too - each group on their own.



Is that what he said? Or is that what you think?

here's an interview with him in german, given before his speech: http://www.rp-online.de/politik/deutschland/Erdogan-Erfolgreiche-Integration-nur-mit-uns_aid_969694.html


Erdogan might be a crazy loon but that isn't what he said.
He said they must integrate, that is a bit different from skybirds world where that translates as "not integrate".
He did however say they shouldn't assimilate which isn't the same as integrate.


^ true that.
To be fair, in the whole debate about integration, no sane person ever spoke about assimilation or giving up one's language/culture, I'm sure Erdogan knows this too.

One point made him also sound like a lunatic: to demand that the Turks here should learn turkish first, then the country's language. :88) Very helpful! Maybe the Erdogan clown should also pay the translators they need when they are in contact with the authorities...
It must be said that many here can't speak neither good turkish nor good german.

Most (immigrant/mixed) couples I know of, they teach their children both languages. If you learn it at an early age, you can master 2 or more languages without an accent. Given however, that's a subjective pov I have, as I am no friends with muppets who want their kids to fail ;)

[Skybird]

Erdoghan is a master of split tongue, and he absues the terms of integration versus assimilation. He left no doubt that Turks should put their "being-Turkish" before Germany, and when he criticises assimilation, he nevertheless means integration indeed. I stick to my statement that he is fully against integration of Turks in Germany. And I also know from own expwerience that many Turks in Germany take the status of not needing to integrate as their natural right, and a normal state of things.

Third generation Turks are mor orthodfox and conservative, then first generation Turks have been. Significant ammounts of the younger ones, different data from past 5 years showed numbers between one third and one half, are against becomign German, are more or less influenced my extreme Turkish nationalism of even violent kind (I just mention the Grey Wolves and the Mili Görrus), and the belief that Germany needs to be turned into a Sharia state or/and a Turkish junior partner obeying Ankara, is anything but rare.

I sum up what Erdoghan means correctly. In past threads over the past 5 years I have given word-by-word quotes by him, both regarding the takeover of Europe by Islam as well as the future of Germany as he envisions it. On basis of these, his speech he now gave again is just showing how consistent and nevertheless double-tongued he is.

If somebody says "assimilation" and describes it by the termsa that means integration, then he may say "assimilation", but still means "integration". And if somebody says a foreigner ion a foreign country should integrate, but should not allow to have his national origin being seconded in that country to that country's own identity, then he may say he welcomes integration, but indeed he just said what he realy means: to resist integration.

Last but not least, Germany is Turkey's entrance gate into the EU, he thinks.

Erdoghan is a master of split-tongues speech. You need to listen very, very carefully. That he forms alliances with Iran, Syria, Hamas and Hezbollah, should tell you something about whose spirit's child he is.

P.S. Even speakers of Turkish organisations in Germany distance themselves from him, and criticise him. And that the conservatives and liberals and political centrists attack him anyway, must not be mentioned.

The left and the socialists, and former chancellor Schroeder however defend Turkey and demand it's quick entrance into the EU. What a braindead breed.

[Gerald]

Erdoghan is a master of split tongue, and he absues the terms of integration versus assimilation. He left no doubt that Turks should put their "being-Turkish" before Germany, and when he criticises assimilation, he nevertheless means integration indeed. I stick to my statement that he is fully against integration of Turks in Germany. And I also know from own expwerience that many Turks in Germany take the status of not needing to integrate as their natural right, and a normal state of things.

Third generation Turks are mor orthodfox and conservative, then first generation Turks have been. Significant ammounts of the younger ones, different data from past 5 years showed numbers between one third and one half, are against becomign German, are more or less influenced my extreme Turkish nationalism of even violent kind (I just mention the Grey Wolves and the Mili Görrus), and the belief that Germany needs to be turned into a Sharia state or/and a Turkish junior partner obeying Ankara, is anything but rare.

I sum up what Erdoghan means correctly. In past threads over the past 5 years I have given word-by-word quotes by him, both regarding the takeover of Europe by Islam as well as the future of Germany as he envisions it. On basis of these, his speech he now gave again is just showing how consistent and nevertheless double-tongued he is.

If somebody says "assimilation" and describes it by the termsa that means integration, then he may say "assimilation", but still means "integration". And if somebody says a foreigner ion a foreign country should integrate, but should not allow to have his national origin being seconded in that country to that country's own identity, then he may say he welcomes integration, but indeed he just said what he realy means: to resist integration.

Last but not least, Germany is Turkey's entrance gate into the EU, he thinks.

Erdoghan is a master of split-tongues speech. You need to listen very, very carefully. That he forms alliances with Iran, Syria, Hamas and Hezbollah, should tell you something about whose spirit's child he is.

P.S. Even speakers of Turkish organisations in Germany distance themselves from him, and criticise him. "Germany is Turkey's entrance gate into the EU, he thinks." But there, he has been so wrong :yep:

[Tribesman]

Erdoghan is a master of split tongue, and he absues the terms of integration versus assimilation.
Says he of the very split tongue who not only changed words entirely he actually reversed what was said:doh:

I stick to my statement
Yeah, like sticking to your statement about Shia Saudi arabia taking oveer the world :har:


no sane person ever spoke about assimilation or giving up one's language/culture
Well skybird said........:up:

[NeonSamurai]

A secular society can't be extremist?

I did put 'and' between 'liberal' and 'secular', but anything can be taken to extremes

[TheSatyr]

What worries me the most is that it is the secular Arab nations that seem to be in the most trouble.

I can't but help feeling that Iran is behind all of this one way or another.

[Castout]

I think it's the Swedish who are behind all this. They want more Volvo sold so thus they need a new market soon. You'll see. I tell you it's the Swedish!!! :D

And it makes perfect sense since it doesn't!!

You have no idea how some people are benefiting from the perception of senseless and motiveless acts. I know that for certain.

[Jimbuna]

When all this turmoil is over I guess we'll have a clearer picture of who is the winner and who is the loser.

http://img846.imageshack.us/img846/9813/arabrevolution.jpg (http://img846.imageshack.us/i/arabrevolution.jpg/)