A bit of a mystery

[The Third Man]

Mysterious missile lights up the sky over the Pacific

Would this type of thing happen without notifying any other nation?

http://www.cbs8.com/Global/story.asp?S=13468118

[TLAM Strike]

Could have been a sounding rocket.

[The Third Man]

Could have been a sounding rocket.

During the vid someone comments on the size of the contrail. It does seem large. Would a sounding rocket produce that size a contrail?

[razark]

Someone just sent me a link to the story:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/40087187/ns/us_news-security/

[The Third Man]

'Pentagon and Navy baffled' ........ That doesn't sound good.

NORAD most certainly tracked it and knows where it started and ended.

[TLAM Strike]

During the vid someone comments on the size of the contrail. It does seem large. Would a sounding rocket produce that size a contrail?

Depends on how close it was to the people taking the pictures, with out any objects of reference its hard to tell, it could be 15 feet from a camera. razark vid also suggests it might be amateurs or a accidental launch from an military aircraft (it happens).

[The Third Man]

........ or a accidental launch from an military aircraft (it happens).

It appears to be on a ballistic trajectory. Does the AF still have the ASM-135 ASAT in its inventory?

[TLAM Strike]

It appears to be on a ballistic trajectory. Does the AF still have the ASM-135 ASAT in its inventory?

No the ASAT has been retired. But its possible that an aircraft in a climb could accidentally launch a AAM causing a ballistic trajectory.

[Oberon]

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_htvjsmtPrmc/Sa4sIRlNicI/AAAAAAAAAg4/oXIB0xz0egA/s400/094new.jpg

:hmmm:

Unlikely...

http://www.owned.com/Owned_Pictures/Wrong_Button_OWNED.jpg


More likely :yep:

[The Third Man]

But the contrail........

Looks more like this
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=95tFGzDpDJs&feature=related

Than any of these
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C9LFvRMFDL0&feature=related

I guess we'll find out soon enough

[AVGWarhawk]

Someone pushed the BIG RED BUTTON. :stare: This not the missile you are looking for. I think we just found Area 52. :03:

[Dowly]

Comet NEAT :88)

[krashkart]

Alright, who's the ******* that screwed with the launch console? :stare:

[Oberon]

But the contrail........

Looks more like this
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=95tFGzDpDJs&feature=related

Than any of these
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C9LFvRMFDL0&feature=related

I guess we'll find out soon enough

You're right, I'm just looking at this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U2qKMchcgzk

That's definitely a ballistic missile of some sort... :hmmm:

[TLAM Strike]

You're right, I'm just looking at this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U2qKMchcgzk

That's definitely a ballistic missile of some sort... :hmmm:

Holy $hit! Good video.

Yea that is a big bird. Guessing SLBM or a large interceptor missile.

Old dude in the video was wrong though the only live (yes a live nuke) SLBM test by the US was launched from the Pacific at a target in the Indian Ocean. It was called Frigate Bird.

[Takeda Shingen]

Huh. I don't buy the 'demonstrating that we can launch a SLBM' because everyone already knows that we have that capability. The ambiguity is kind of worrying; I'd say forget gold, it may be time to invest in scrap.

[ETR3(SS)]

Old dude in the video was wrong though the only live (yes a live nuke) SLBM test by the US was launched from the Pacific at a target in the Indian Ocean. It was called Frigate Bird.But he was right at the same time. Test launches of the missiles are conducted in the Atlantic, that's where all the necessary facilities are located at. Off the coast of SoCal wouldn't be a logical place for this either when we have Barking Sands.

[TLAM Strike]

Off the coast of SoCal wouldn't be a logical place for this either when we have Barking Sands.

Not if they are doing a interceptor test from Barking Sands for the THAAD or some other system.

[ETR3(SS)]

Not if they are doing a interceptor test from Barking Sands for the THAAD or some other system.Yeah, but if they had a test for that they would work around it not throw a dart at the map and just launch it from there. Well, you would think.:haha:

[mookiemookie]

Huh. I don't buy the 'demonstrating that we can launch a SLBM' because everyone already knows that we have that capability. The ambiguity is kind of worrying; I'd say forget gold, it may be time to invest in scrap.

Or Sunset Sasparilla Star Bottle Caps.

[The Third Man]

The Air Force launches its ICBMs toward Kwajalein Atoll in the Marshall Islands from Vandenburgh AFB. Perhaps it was a SLBM using the AF test range.

[Rockstar]

It caused a stir no doubt think maybe it was done to watch someones comms net light up and see who started talking to whom and from where?

Maybe Al Haig finally got to push the button he never got to during those few minutes he was in charge.

[TLAM Strike]

Yeah, but if they had a test for that they would work around it not throw a dart at the map and just launch it from there. Well, you would think.:haha:
Maybe they wanted a test where the blue side didn't know where the OPFOR was going to launch from or when. So they launched from an unusual area to test the system's ability to handle a surprise attack. :hmmm:

[Oberon]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jlPEBROvR9w

:doh:

Some of the chaps over on stratpages think that it might be a misident'd commercial contrail, but tbh, to me at least, that looked like a missile. There was no NOTAM released before the launch, and news sources seem to state that NORAD and other traditional ICBM detection services didn't pick anything up, to the extent that they're using the footage released by the news agency to try and investigate it.

All a bit confusing really. I wonder if we'll ever know...

[TLAM Strike]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jlPEBROvR9w

:doh: Plays like a wishlist for the Airforce... :roll:

No mention of Trident or Tomahawk as potential solutions. :ping:

[Molon Labe]

With our government clueless about this, it doesn't leave many possibilities.

The only thing that's going through my head is the article posted to the front page here a few days ago telling us to "stay tuned," because the G-Dub would be in the next ROK-US ASW exercises in the Yellow Sea. I know, it's not a proportional response, but I can't think of anything else that makes any sense.

[razark]

Came across this video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6gUedXAXnCs&feature=related

[Oberon]

Plays like a wishlist for the Airforce... :roll:

No mention of Trident or Tomahawk as potential solutions. :ping:

I think it was put out at a time when people were calling for the scaling back of SAC or something like that. :hmmm: Then 'The Day After' nicked parts of it :03:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Strike_%281979_film%29

[Gerald]

:agree:

[The Third Man]

An arms limitation treaty is up for vote in the lame duck Senate. If the Administration did this to hi-lite the need for such a treaty; all I can do is wonder what isn't up to political hijinks with these folks. This is too serious a business for stunts like this.

[SteamWake]

I think it was done to advertise Bush's new book :haha:

All this talk about the goverment not knowing has got to be untrue.

Wouldent an event like this set NORAD on point?

[razark]

Wouldent an event like this set NORAD on point?
How often does NORAD put out press releases?

I've seen a few reports that it was a contrail from an aircraft filmed from an odd angle.

[The Third Man]

Wouldent an event like this set NORAD on point?

I would think/hope that is the case but they ain't talking either.

[Oberon]

I think it was done to advertise Bush's new book :haha:

All this talk about the goverment not knowing has got to be untrue.

Wouldent an event like this set NORAD on point?

Apparently the alert level is still on DEFCON 4, so if NORAD did pick it up they're obviously not thinking much of it.

http://www.talkradionews.com/news/2010/11/9/pentagon-missile-spotted-off-california-coast-unexplainable.html

But if this was something harmless, why the devil haven't they dismissed it already? :hmmm: I mean, I know whenever something screws up in the US military the entire establishment goes into turtle mode and getting info out is like pulling teeth but the bafflement from the Pentagon is not reassuring... :doh:

[The Third Man]

I've seen a few reports that it was a contrail from an aircraft filmed from an odd angle.

I've looked @ the vid a few more times than often and it appears the city is down and the missile is up. It was photoged from a news chopper. How odd an angle could account for this?

[The Third Man]

NORAD would most certainly have detected the launch via satellite during the boost phase, which this appears to be. That there is no official word I'd say NORAD knew of it beforehand and .............. I don't know.

[Molon Labe]

"When someone makes an unannounced launch what looks to be a ballistic missile 35 miles from the nations second largest city (at sea in international waters), and 18 hours later NORAD still doesn't have any answers at all - that complete lack of information represents a credible threat to national security. If NORAD can't answer the first and last question, then I believe it is time to question every single penny of ballistic missile defense funding in the defense budget. NORTHCOM needs to start talking about what they do know, rather than leaving the focus on what they don't know."
--Galrahn, Information Dissemination.net

[The Third Man]

"When someone makes an unannounced launch what looks to be a ballistic missile 35 miles from the nations second largest city (at sea in international waters), and 18 hours later NORAD still doesn't have any answers at all - that complete lack of information represents a credible threat to national security. If NORAD can't answer the first and last question, then I believe it is time to question every single penny of ballistic missile defense funding in the defense budget. NORTHCOM needs to start talking about what they do know, rather than leaving the focus on what they don't know."
--Galrahn, Information Dissemination.net

Agreed. Think if it were a missile aimed 180° from where it was. Houston would be gone. And worse.

[Oberon]

"When someone makes an unannounced launch what looks to be a ballistic missile 35 miles from the nations second largest city (at sea in international waters), and 18 hours later NORAD still doesn't have any answers at all - that complete lack of information represents a credible threat to national security. If NORAD can't answer the first and last question, then I believe it is time to question every single penny of ballistic missile defense funding in the defense budget. NORTHCOM needs to start talking about what they do know, rather than leaving the focus on what they don't know."
--Galrahn, Information Dissemination.net

I was just about to post that.

Very true. I mean, if the answer is classified, fair enough, just say that they have an answer, they know who launched it, it's not a threat to national security but unfortunately it is classified. Not a simple 'hell if I know'! :damn:

[The Third Man]

I was just about to post that.

Very true. I mean, if the answer is classified, fair enough, just say that they have an answer, they know who launched it, it's not a threat to national security but unfortunately it is classified. Not a simple 'hell if I know'! :damn:

WikiLeaks will post it soon enough.

[Takeda Shingen]

Or Sunset Sasparilla Star Bottle Caps.

Bring them with you if you ever come out east and we'll play some Caravan.

[SteamWake]

I've looked @ the vid a few more times than often and it appears the city is down and the missile is up. It was photoged from a news chopper. How odd an angle could account for this?

Its swamp gas :03:

[Oberon]

WikiLeaks will post it soon enough.

:har::up:

NORTHCOM is: “unable to provide specific details… [but] can confirm that there is no threat to our nation, and from all indications this was not a launch by a foreign military.”

So, it's highly likely an internal launch or quite possibly a contrail.

http://www.wired.com/images_blogs/dangerroom/2010/11/Preview-20100119-154110.jpg
Like this one.

If it's an internal launch then either someone has not sent a memo to someone else because a NOTAM was not issued until after the event, or someone pressed the wrong button and it was an accidental launch, in which case the reports of the US not having a kill option on their nukes after launch is bogus because nowhere as gone up in a giant fireball yet. :hmmm:

[nikimcbee]

With the bamster incharge....

Maybe this is our land-a-cessna-on-Red Square- what -the -hell -are -your air defences doing moment?

or, maybe China wants us to pay up?:hmmm: Didn't we borrow a couple bucks from them?

[SteamWake]

With the bamster incharge....

Maybe this is our land-a-cessna-on-Red Square- what -the -hell -are -your air defences doing moment?

or, maybe China wants us to pay up?:hmmm: Didn't we borrow a couple bucks from them?

Actually they have been buying from us.... our debt. Maybe its time to start bustin kneecaps :hmmm:

[TLAM Strike]

or someone pressed the wrong button and it was an accidental launch, in which case the reports of the US not having a kill option on their nukes after launch is bogus because nowhere as gone up in a giant fireball yet. :hmmm:

No fireball if it wasn't a nuke. Could have been an launch of some kind of interceptor. :yep:

In California back in the days of Nike (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Nike)there were underground magazines to store the SAMs before they put them out on the launcher.
http://img600.imageshack.us/img600/7145/49075646e9dd482490.jpg
^Underground Magazine
http://img213.imageshack.us/img213/1963/muensterhandorfairfield.jpg
^Above ground launcher

Wouldn't surprise me if there were Patriot TELs hidden about the country just in case. The Avengers you see in Washington aren't good for squat in reality.

maybe it was not accidental and we splashed a bird sent courtesy of some unfriendly regime... :o

[GoldenRivet]

Here is an interesting question...

Where did this "missile" end up?

:hmmm:

[Oberon]

Yeah, but if the location of the launch was out to sea and the navy claims not have any ships there that just leaves a sub, and unless it was an SSGN with a Tomahawk aimed at the moon, TLAMs and TASMs don't usually go to that kind of altitude, or indeed, leave such a thick contrail immediately behind them.
So, if it was an empty SLBM then either someone isn't doing the stores properly, or this was a planned fire mission and someone hasn't sent out the memos to the right sources.

Or, indeed, there is the frightening possibility that someone did just try to light up the US west coast, be it either from a freighter or a hostile boomer, although in the latters case it is doubly frightening that it managed to get so close to the US coastline undetected.
However, one would have thought that the US would not still be sitting pretty on DEFCON4 if that missile had hostile intentions.

[Oberon]

Here is an interesting question...

Where did this "missile" end up?

:hmmm:

A few theories, one of which indicates the Alaskan test ranges, however it's quite possible it either stayed in orbit or splashed into the Pacific.

Has anyone heard from Seattle lately? :hmmm: :haha:

[The Third Man]

US ICBMs/SLBMs stage about one minute after launch. We don't see the entire footage, but that should be looked for. Staging is unmistakable.

[The Third Man]

A few theories, one of which indicates the Alaskan test ranges, however it's quite possible it either stayed in orbit or splashed into the Pacific.

Has anyone heard from Seattle lately? :hmmm: :haha:

Alaska? LA is not even close. And that type of contrail wouldn't be visible. The earth is still round isn't it?

[The Third Man]

The old Sprint missile decommissioned during the Nixon Admin., leaves no long range contrail like last evenings event.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nLpLEgAS574

[Oberon]

Alaska? LA is not even close. And that type of contrail wouldn't be visible. The earth is still round isn't it?

:hmmm:

D-5s range is +4000 miles, well within range, furthermore the boost phase of an SLBM is rather visible.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fl37UZvFsz0

Particularly considering the sun was behind it, IIRC, which means that it's silhouetted even more.

Still, it's a pretty stupid place to fire from if you're not going to flat trajectory into a city, talk about give away your position. :damn:

[Oberon]

The old Sprint missile decommissioned during the Nixon Admin., leaves no long range contrail like last evenings event.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nLpLEgAS574

Yeah, I don't think it was an interceptor missile. A target for one, perhaps, but no, if it's not a plane contrail then it definitely looks like the smoke from a ballistic missile.

[The Third Man]

The Pentagon knows exactly what is going on. There are just too many sensors for them not to know.

An example.... Pave/Paws locations
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/7c/PAVE_PAWS%26BMEWS.png/578px-PAVE_PAWS%26BMEWS.png

Beale AFB certainly saw the launch.

[The Third Man]

:hmmm:

D-5s range is +4000 miles, well within range, furthermore the boost phase of an SLBM is rather visible.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fl37UZvFsz0

Particularly considering the sun was behind it, IIRC, which means that it's silhouetted even more.

Still, it's a pretty stupid place to fire from if you're not going to flat trajectory into a city, talk about give away your position. :damn:

I'm closer to Florida than Alaska is to LA and I cannot see Shuttle launches. But the SRBs are about the same as ICBM propulsors.

[krashkart]

I'm hoping that this was a test launch that suffered a communications breakdown.

[The Third Man]

I'm hoping that this was a test launch that suffered a communications breakdown.

Which is a whole other problem when it comes to nuke delivery vehicles.

Heads will roll!

[Oberon]

The launch itself must have taken place within 35 miles of LA for them to have seen it, this much we must surely both be able to agree on.

Where Alaska comes in, I meant as its destination, not its launch site.

Agreed on the sensors though, plus there are satellites IIRC which can spot the IR heat pulse from the boost phase of an SLBM or ICBM which then set off numerous alarms down the chain, scrambling the SAC, flushing the boomers, throwing the VP or whoever is next on the chain of command onto Kneecap. There should have been a rush of activity and a spike to DEFCON 3 at the very, very, very lowest, none of this happened.

Now either the US alert system has fallen apart since the end of the Cold War or this was a planned launch, or...as it's looking more and more likely, it's an aircraft contrail.

[XabbaRus]

Damn RA mod for Dangerous Waters...with playable boomers.....

[Oberon]

Damn RA mod for Dangerous Waters...with playable boomers.....


:haha:

[krashkart]

I'm not buying the aircraft contrail theory. Too much fire at the head of the exhaust column.

[The Third Man]

or...as it's looking more and more likely, it's an aircraft contrail.

Having seen thousands of contrails from oncoming and passing aircraft, I can tell you that is not from a piloted aircraft. Because contrails from launch point indicates a temperature so high above the dew point, and with so much unburned particulates, only a missile could produce it.

Contrail = Condensation Trail

[razark]

I'm not buying the aircraft contrail theory. Too much fire at the head of the exhaust column.
I just reported what I read. I agree, it looks like a rocket burning at the front end of that trail.

[Oberon]

I got to admit, I don't think much of the contrail theory, personally, but the only other logical explanation is that it was a test launch and someone forgot to notify the right people or an accidental launch and the US does have kill switches for its SLBMs.

To go beyond that is to go into scary territory in that the US has just had a hostile launch 35 miles off one of its big cities.

[The Third Man]

US does have kill switches for its SLBMs


Only on the test vehicles, not on the alert ICBMs.

[razark]

...an accidental launch and the US does have kill switches for its SLBMs.

To go beyond that is to go into scary territory in that the US has just had a hostile launch 35 miles off one of its big cities.
An accidental launch of a SLBM is not scary?

Would a nuclear warhead have some kind of safety system in place to prevent detonation if a missile were to be accidentally launched?

[The Third Man]

An accidental launch of a SLBM is not scary?

Would a nuclear warhead have some kind of safety system in place to prevent detonation if a missile were to be accidentally launched?

No. There are no such thing as an accidental launch with nuclear weapons. Too many barriers for that to happen. Even the President cannot execute a launch on his own initiative.

[krashkart]

To go beyond that is to go into scary territory in that the US has just had a hostile launch 35 miles off one of its big cities.

Been on my mind all day. But Defcon still being at 4... I dunno. :hmmm:


Maybe it was the first ever suborbital football (handegg) pass. "Eat THIS, Favre!!" :O:

[Oberon]

This is true, I do not know of a way that an SLBM could be accidentally launched, however it's still something that's got to be laid on the table, just like the contrail theory.

I guess we should also factor San Nicolas island into the equation, they do launch research rockets from there. :yep:

[ETR3(SS)]

No. There are no such thing as an accidental launch with nuclear weapons. Too many barriers for that to happen.This. There is no way in hell that you can accidentally launch a missile. Far too many people involved in the launch process for that to happen.

[krashkart]

I'm willing to take a test fire from San Nicolas that suffered communication breakdown, over a possible "Yo, America! Lookit what we can do!".

This contrail mystery coincides with two programs I watched on Sunday about the Cuban Missile Crisis. I'm not a happy camper today. :-?

[Oberon]

I'm willing to take a test fire from San Nicolas that suffered communication breakdown, over a possible "Yo, America! Lookit what we can do!".

This contrail mystery coincides with two programs I watched on Sunday about the Cuban Missile Crisis. I'm not a happy camper today. :-?

You ever watched 'Thirteen Days'? Good film. :yep:

[razark]

This. There is no way in hell that you can accidentally launch a missile. Far too many people involved in the launch process for that to happen.
I understand that there are too many people involved. What about mechanical or electrical problems?

Once a solid fuel rocket begins burning, it's going somewhere, no matter how it started burning.

[Rockstar]

Odd 13 days was aired here in the states 2 days before this happened.

[The Third Man]

I understand that there are too many people involved. What about mechanical or electrical problems?

Once a solid fuel rocket begins burning, it's going somewhere, no matter how it started burning.

But that doesn't jive because there was no nuclear detonation.

Unless you think all SLBMs are toothless. IE no nukes.

I guess we can go back to a test launch during rush hour on the west coast. Back to the Obama Admin playing bad with an unfunny game. To get some legislation passed. I pray that is not the case.

[razark]

But that doesn't jive because there was no nuclear detonation.
Huh. Seems someone might have asked about that...

Oh, right:
Would a nuclear warhead have some kind of safety system in place to prevent detonation if a missile were to be accidentally launched?

[Raptor1]

But that doesn't jive because there was no nuclear detonation.

Unless you think all SLBMs are toothless. IE no nukes.

I guess we can go back to a test launch during rush hour on the west coast. Back to the Obama Admin playing bad with an unfunny game. To get some legislation passed. I pray that is not the case.

Accidentally launching an SLBM would be much easier than accidentally making the warhead go off...

[ETR3(SS)]

I understand that there are too many people involved. What about mechanical or electrical problems?

Once a solid fuel rocket begins burning, it's going somewhere, no matter how it started burning.If a missile lights off in the tube, it will more than likely destroy the boat carrying it.

[The Third Man]

The point is ....once launched the warheads are not recallable or able to be disabled in any manner. This isn't hollywood.

Once launched detonation will occur unless it is a test. To allow for any means of self destruct or any interference of the missile in flight removes any usefullness it may have.

[SteamWake]

The point is ....once launched the warheads are not recallable or able to be disabled in any manner. This isn't hollywood.

Once launched detonation will occur unless it is a test. To allow for any means of self destruct or any interference of the missile in flight removes any usefullness it may have.

You know that as a fact?

I would like to believe otherwise.

[razark]

If a missile lights off in the tube, it will more than likely destroy the boat carrying it.
Good point.

The point is ....once launched the warheads are not recallable or able to be disabled in any manner.
Let me rephrase my question, then:
Does the warhead need to be armed before launch (as part of the button-pressing, key-turning fun the movies portray), or is it automatically armed when the missile leaves the tube, or is it sitting ready to go on top of the missile waiting for the command to detonate it?

[krashkart]

I'm ruling out international incident. Somebody would have stepped forward by now to claim responsibility and strike fear into our hearts, and there would have been special reports on local TV all afternoon.

Has anyone mentioned an unannounced commercial spaceplane launch as a possibility? Spaceship 2 has crossed my mind a couple of times, but I doubt either Branson or Rutan would risk their hides over a stupid mistake like that. That, and they probably would have come forward with an apology by now.

[TLAM Strike]

If a missile lights off in the tube, it will more than likely destroy the boat carrying it.

http://img214.imageshack.us/img214/5888/k219dnsc8700808.jpg

[Raptor1]

The point is ....once launched the warheads are not recallable or able to be disabled in any manner. This isn't hollywood.

Once launched detonation will occur unless it is a test. To allow for any means of self destruct or any interference of the missile in flight removes any usefullness it may have.

I would've thought it was the opposite, that no detonation will occur unless it is actually made to detonate before launching.

[Oberon]

You know that as a fact?

I would like to believe otherwise.

IIRC, that is the line that is put out by the US military, that their ICBMs do not have a kill switch. The emphasis is put on avoiding a unintentional launch in the first place.
The trouble with having a kill switch after launch is the possibility of enemy interference making the missiles self-destruct before they reach their targets.

[CaptainHaplo]

Likely an airplane, just from one of those odd angles that makes it look like something its not.

[TLAM Strike]

Likely an airplane, just from one of those odd angles that makes it look like something its not.

That is increasingly seeming to be the case here... (http://www.informationdissemination.net/2010/11/is-missile-actually-airplane-contrail.html)

[The Third Man]

I would've thought it was the opposite, that no detonation will occur unless it is actually made to detonate before launching.

All warhead coding/enabling and missile launch codes must be entered prior to launch. Once launched the missile doesn't even need to know where it is...it just needs to know where it is not ...and goes to where it needs to be. Which is part of the launch code.

[The Third Man]

That is increasingly seeming to be the case here... (http://www.informationdissemination.net/2010/11/is-missile-actually-airplane-contrail.html)

I think that is wrong.

[Molon Labe]

The airplane theory seems possible, but I'm very skeptical.

In it's favor, depending on the angle the camera is facing relative to the setting sun, some of the pictures show the trail to be front-lit or at least lit from the right side. A missile plume headed West would be backlit by the setting sun, not frontlit.

Against that theory
1. There is a clear "glow" from the peak of the trail, which looks like a rocket motor. I suppose it's possible this is a reflection from sunlight from underneath, but it definitely does not look that way.
2. The size of the trail immediately behind the tip of the trail appears too wide to be a contrail. Rocket smoke billows outward very rapidly, while contrails expand more slowly.
3. The video being used to say "hey, it's a contrail" by showing the "aircraft" after it is out of the contrail producing zone has a gap between the time it looks like a rocket and the time it looks like an aircraft. The camera isn't even pointed at the "aircraft" in the 2nd part right away. Without the footage between these two moments, it doesn't seem credible that these two parts are filming the same object.
4. If it was a contrail, the pilot/cameraman filming it would have figured it out once the aircraft flew overhead and this never would have been a story. Also, they would have noticed that it was going too slow to be a missile. Unless we are to believe the local CBS station is deliberately causing alarm to get more web hits, it's hard to accept this would have been reported as such if it really was an aircraft.

[The Third Man]

It is no airplane.

[krashkart]

According to CBS Evening News tonight, the Pentagon says that the object was moving too slow to be a missile, and that they think it was either an aircraft or an amateur rocket.

[The Third Man]

According to CBS Evening News tonight, the Pentagon says that the object was moving too slow to be a missile, and that they think it was either an aircraft or an amateur rocket.

I don't believe either explanaition. Do you?

[krashkart]

I don't believe either explanaition. Do you?

Not really, but it's better than not having any word from them.

[The Third Man]

Too many folks want to make an obvious rocket plume into an aircaft contrail.

[Tribesman]

Too many folks want to make an obvious rocket plume into an aircaft contrail.

But they are only disguised as obvious rocket plumes because the reptilian government are worried that Gorilla was exposing on the internet the evil contrails which the freemasons are using for population and mind control on humans.

[DarkFish]

But they are only disguised as obvious rocket plumes because the reptilian government are worried that Gorilla was exposing on the internet the evil contrails which the freemasons are using for population and mind control on humans.just ask yubba:yep:

[Platapus]

The flash of light you saw in the sky was not a missile. Swamp gas from a weather balloon was trapped in a thermal pocket and reflected the light from Venus.


<slipping on sunglasses>

Have you seen this really cool pen I have?

[Rockstar]

I finally saw the video on the news tonight. My initial impression and gut feeling when viewing it was that of a contrail from an aircraft. The brightness of the object looked to me as if it was reflecting the sun rather than a burn from a rocket motor. Also saw what looked like darker smoke but it was just the shadow of the contrail.

[Molon Labe]

Well, I'm starting to accept the contrail hypothesis.

The FAA says they didn't have any other reports about this. If this was a missile, lots of people would have seen it, pilots in the area especially. The radio would have been going nuts. No other reports mean it only looked this way from the particular spot where the camera was, ergo, contrail of an approaching aircraft.

I'd really like the pilot/cameraman to be interviewed so we can find out why this was reported as a missile. Did these people actually see the launch, or were they doing something else and then looked west and saw a "cloud", already formed, and just assumed the worst? Because it was reported as a missile launch from a specific point in the ocean, I've thought this whole time that the people in that helicopter actually saw the "missile" from a point in time only seconds from when it emerged from the surface, watched it climb, and could see the point on the surface where the smoke trail started. I guess I assumed that they wouldn't make an assumption that would raise a huge alarm. Doom on me.

[Ducimus]

if it wasn't a contrail, I doubt the government would tell us for fear of starting a panic, or generating an unneeded (or unwanted) international incident.

[krashkart]

Well, I'm starting to accept the contrail hypothesis.

The FAA says they didn't have any other reports about this. If this was a missile, lots of people would have seen it, pilots in the area especially. The radio would have been going nuts. No other reports mean it only looked this way from the particular spot where the camera was, ergo, contrail of an approaching aircraft.

I'd really like the pilot/cameraman to be interviewed so we can find out why this was reported as a missile. Did these people actually see the launch, or were they doing something else and then looked west and saw a "cloud", already formed, and just assumed the worst? Because it was reported as a missile launch from a specific point in the ocean, I've thought this whole time that the people in that helicopter actually saw the "missile" from a point in time only seconds from when it emerged from the surface, watched it climb, and could see the point on the surface where the smoke trail started. I guess I assumed that they wouldn't make an assumption that would raise a huge alarm. Doom on me.

How could I forget the most important word in journalism: Sensationalism! :doh::damn:

[Reece]

http://www.collider.com/uploads/imageGallery/Austin_Powers/mike_myers_as_dr_evil_in_austin_powers.jpg
OOPS!!

[WarlordATF]

http://i19.photobucket.com/albums/b164/WarlordATF/Missile620_1757933b.jpg

Thats no moon, its a spacestation!

[Buddahaid]

According to CBS Evening News tonight, the Pentagon says that the object was moving too slow to be a missile, and that they think it was either an aircraft or an amateur rocket.

Amatuer rocket? Amatu...ER ROCKET? Wha....

Must have been MythBusters, yup!

[krashkart]

Amatuer rocket? Amatu...ER ROCKET? Wha....

Must have been MythBusters, yup!

Standard fare, no? :haha:

[Gargamel]

Amateur rocketry has gone pretty far these days. IF i'm not mistaken, the current SpaceShip Two uses a rubber cement and NO2 Rocket engine.

If you wanted to really hack something together, all you'd need to do is combine those in a large metal cylinder, and voila! Instant rocket engine.

Of course it's not THAT simple, but it's close. Try these articles for example:

http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/80beats/2010/08/24/amateur-danish-rocket-builders-plan-to-send-a-human-to-space/

http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/2010-08/23/danish-manned-spacecraft


Now think how hard it would be for a amateur / private company to be building something similar on the sly, and think that firing it 30 miles off shore would be sufficient to hide it?

LA has lots of money and people and an ocean. It's actually very feasible to be done there.

[Gargamel]

And yes.... they built their own sub to tow their launch platform :doh:.


And of course, as another article mentions, it can fail very easily.

They had a hairdryer (???) fail in their rocket and they have to postpone it till June.

[razark]

And yes.... they built their own sub to tow their launch platform
Meh. Something like that would never happen...
Crazy, unrealistic ideas.

It's probably just testing for faking the next moon landing.

[Buddahaid]

Meh. Something like that would never happen...
Crazy, unrealistic ideas.

It's probably just testing for faking the next moon landing.

They did THAT last week! The new thing is mini big bangs, you, you....

[razark]

They did THAT last week! The new thing is mini big bangs, you, you....
Big bangs?

Wasn't that back in the 80's?

[Castout]

One question can scud missile produce similar contrail or a much less noticeable one? Just wondering if scuds would produce contrails at all.

That contrail is so big . . . .

[TarJak]

The TG guys wanted to have another crack at launching a car?:D

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p38V9y808dY

[krashkart]

The TG guys wanted to have another crack at launching a car?:D

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p38V9y808dY


Sweet! They should team up with the Master Blasters. :arrgh!:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jMBOTLJn3FA


CAUTION: Mini Cooper fans, avert thine eyes. :haha:

[SteamWake]

Contrails from an aircraft :har:

Ive witnessed shuttle launches first hand three times now and it looks remarkably similar to these 'contrails from an aircraft'.

That long plume of smoke and vapors being 'pulled' out of the earth are hard to forget.

[Skybird]

http://www.welt.de/multimedia/archive/01252/cbs_mit_flugzeug_D_1252297p.jpg

That assumed plane right of the tip of the smoke trail - relative from the smoke trail, is it in the front, side or rear area of the smoke trail's tip/assumed rocket/missiles?

I wonder if somebody could have tried to go after that plane, using a self-constructed/unidentified kind of missile?!?

[Oberon]

Official word is now 'aircraft contrail'

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/11/10/national/main7041217.shtml

"There is no evidence to suggest that this is anything else other than a condensation trail from an aircraft," said Pentagon spokesman Colonel Dave Lapan, who reiterated that there was no threat to America.

[Dowly]

Pretty thick contrail. :haha:

[joegrundman]

perhaps it's a..err..weather balloon...err...taking off

[Molon Labe]

http://www.welt.de/multimedia/archive/01252/cbs_mit_flugzeug_D_1252297p.jpg

That assumed plane right of the tip of the smoke trail - relative from the smoke trail, is it in the front, side or rear area of the smoke trail's tip/assumed rocket/missiles?

I wonder if somebody could have tried to go after that plane, using a self-constructed/unidentified kind of missile?!?

That aircraft is much, much, much closer than the trail.

[Oberon]

That aircraft is much, much, much closer than the trail.

I believe that's one of the many news choppers of LA, quite possibly the CBS one. I'm not sure though.

[Skybird]

That aircraft is much, much, much closer than the trail.

You sound as if you are very certain. How did you judge that? The video linked on page one stops short before the aircraft starts transiting in front of (or behind!)the smoke trail, and the video resolution is not that good to do a visual judgement of the parallax movement, and I see no other visual clues in the picture or video that allow to conclude the relative distance between the smoke trail and the aircraft. I would not even dare to definitely calculate the absolute size and dimensioin of that smoke trail. It is extremely difficult to estimate the size of a visual object like clouds or smoke fields if there is no additional information on their size, position or speed.

[Fish]

WikiLeaks will post it soon enough.

It was a North Korean provocation. :O:

[Dowly]

You sound as if you are very certain. How did you judge that? The video linked on page one stops short before the aircraft starts transiting in front of (or behind!)the smoke trail, and the video resolution is not that good to do a visual judgement of the parallax movement, and I see no other visual clues in the picture or video that allow to conclude the relative distance between the smoke trail and the aircraft. I would not even dare to definitely calculate the absolute size and dimensioin of that smoke trail. It is extremely difficult to estimate the size of a visual object like clouds or smoke fields if there is no additional information on their size, position or speed.

IMHO, the trail just looks like it's far. Can't really point a finger to it exactly, but it just looks to me like it's much farther away than the plane. :hmmm:

EDIT: Well, the plane looks a tad blurry, kinda out of focus. Or overly zoomed.

[SteamWake]

The plane you see in the picture has nothing to do with the vapor trail it is actually going perpindicular to the trail.

Watch the video you will see it fly past the vapor trail. You will also see a point of light at the end of the vapor trail at some points of the video. Landing lights? Uhhh its going 'away' from the view :doh: The plane is 'fuzzy' as it is out of the focal plane for that camera.

As usual our goverment figures were a bunch of ill informed idiots and pass this off as a weather ballon or some such. I reallty grow tired of it. I'm assuming its one of those 'we could tell you but then we would have to kill you' sort of things.

By the way I'm guessing this thing landed in the middle of the pacific somewhere as there is not mention of where it came down.

I was reading about this in another forum and someone made the best guess that I have seen so far...

"A third world country announcing they now have submarine launch capability".

Frankly thats the only thing that makes sense to me.

[Skybird]

Watch the video you will see it fly past the vapor trail.

Not, not in the video I get here via that link in the first post - the plane moves towards the trail, the feed ends just before the planes starts to "touch" the trail - then they change cameras. There is no pictures showing it is passing in front of or behind the trail. That's why I am irritated. The plane DOES NOT pass the trail.

I read some UFO books many years ago, and was amused by how easily many people take things for granted just because they either appeared to be "reasonable" to assume, or because they supported their intention to "believe" in UFOs. That'S why I am hacking on these details so impertinently. Probably it has been like everybody is saying - but I want no hear-say or wild guessing, but evidence for that, please. :03: :O: :DL And the video in that link does not show what is claimed that it shows, but gets cut just before. The video also does not seem to show any visual reference that allows to judge the size and dimension of that trail.

[TLAM Strike]

I was reading about this in another forum and someone made the best guess that I have seen so far...

"A third world country announcing they now have submarine launch capability".

Frankly thats the only thing that makes sense to me.

North Korea got their hands of a old Golf, but not much has been seen of her in along time. Unlike some of our other enemies the DPRK doesn't announce the launching of new sub classes on Youtube... :hmmm:

I wonder if somebody could have tried to go after that plane, using a self-constructed/unidentified kind of missile?!?Smoky SAM anyone? :03:

[TLAM Strike]

http://blog.bahneman.com/content/it-was-us-airways-flight-808

http://img31.imageshack.us/img31/351/uwwau.gif

[Buddahaid]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MOs4vsthLD0&feature=related

[SteamWake]

The comparison is quite clear. A remarkably similar, less-hyped, contrail created by the same flight almost exactly 24 hours later!


Yea boy .. wow what are the odds.. :haha:

What a bunch of bs.

[Skybird]

I too thought of contrails first when seeing the video and pictures first, imagining it to be a strange kind of SAM came just later. It does not help in judging the thing that apparently most pics they released are massively zoomed in.

[SteamWake]

Unless they had a 'steady cam' or stabilized image cam they could not be that zoomed in. Even just the vibration of the chopper would blur it.

Also yes that aircraft (appears to be a 172 or some such) is 'much closer' just watch the video you should be able to realize this.

[Blood_splat]

It's the Aurora.:O:

[Platapus]

One question can scud missile produce similar contrail or a much less noticeable one? Just wondering if scuds would produce contrails at all.

That contrail is so big . . . .

Yes it does, but it is a different coloured exhaust not a true contrail.

[Skybird]

Unless they had a 'steady cam' or stabilized image cam they could not be that zoomed in. Even just the vibration of the chopper would blur it.

Also yes that aircraft (appears to be a 172 or some such) is 'much closer' just watch the video you should be able to realize this.
Almost all still pics of the vapor trail in the media have been zoom pics from the original video footage (=Ausschnittsvergrößerung).

The size of the plane and the size of the smoke trail cannot be put into relation to each other bay visual marks - they are not there. Note that there are forms in nature like waves, coastlines, fractals and clouds that you cannot judge in size at all as long as no additional references are given. In the still pics, due to the zoom, the vapor trail looks giant. In the video, it doesn't look that impressive anymore.

[Castout]

Yes it does, but it is a different coloured exhaust not a true contrail.

Thanks
What do you mean different colored? Less dense?


I found it odd everybody claimed not knowing what it was.:DL
Since the governmental bodies not issuing any warning it is safe to assume that it was launched by one.

[Platapus]

Thanks
What do you mean different colored? Less dense?


I found it odd everybody claimed not knowing what it was.:DL

Contrails, being water vapour, will be lighter in colour. The exhaust from the TM-185 Fuel for the Scud burns dirty and the exhaust plum is darker and because it is heaver than water vapour will tend to flatten out as it drifts downward. Contrails tend to disburse as opposed to settling.

Also the burn time of a scud motor is between 65 and 95 seconds (actual times depend on model and fuel composition). So the exhaust plume for a scud is about 90 seconds long where contrails can be many minuets long.

As for people claiming not to know what it is, I would not worry. This happened in one of our more "sensitive" Air Defense Zones. We have sensors covering that area. And it probably is not a good idea for the US to release to the public (domestic and foreign) what we can and can't identify. Hence it is in the best interest for the government to say as little as possible. :yep:

[Castout]

Contrails, being water vapour, will be lighter in colour. The exhaust from the TM-185 Fuel for the Scud burns dirty and the exhaust plum is darker and because it is heaver than water vapour will tend to flatten out as it drifts downward. Contrails tend to disburse as opposed to settling.

Also the burn time of a scud motor is between 65 and 95 seconds (actual times depend on model and fuel composition). So the exhaust plume for a scud is about 90 seconds long where contrails can be many minuets long.

As for people claiming not to know what it is, I would not worry. This happened in one of our more "sensitive" Air Defense Zones. We have sensors covering that area. And it probably is not a good idea for the US to release to the public (domestic and foreign) what we can and can't identify. Hence it is in the best interest for the government to say as little as possible. :yep:

Wow that's some information :up:

[Platapus]

I .. uh .. have this "friend" who spent a lot of time analyzing scuds.

<whistling>

So how about them Redskins, boy do they suck this year. :yep:

[The Third Man]

No mistake this time.....CONFIRMED MISSILE




http://www.coloryourcorner.com/img/missile-cleveland.jpg

:D

[Sailor Steve]

:rotfl2::yeah:

[SteamWake]

and the crowd goes mild !!!

Amazing.. they put out this 'blogger' who comes up with a plausable explination and portray it as 'fact' and boom out of the news cycle it goes.

Relying on the short attention span of americans it all just fades away.

Misson accomplished.

[krashkart]

and the crowd goes mild !!!

Amazing.. they put out this 'blogger' who comes up with a plausable explination and portray it as 'fact' and boom out of the news cycle it goes.

Relying on the short attention span of americans it all just fades away.

Misson accomplished.


But the possible conspiracy theories are nearly limitless. :D

[Buddahaid]

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2010/11/12/DDASMUSSENBR.DTL

:har:

[krashkart]

lmao :rotfl2:

[Gargamel]

No mistake this time.....CONFIRMED MISSILE




http://www.coloryourcorner.com/img/missile-cleveland.jpg

:D

Holy crap man, from the point of launch, it looks like it coulda come from my house!!!

Check my loc in my details over there (<----) if your curious.

And of all the 'coastal' cities to pick to post a picture of, why Cleveland?



I'm still all for amateur rocket theory, but couple things stick out in the blogger's explanation that have swayed me.

1) He was able to name the flight that caused the contrail, and the next day, with similar weather he took a photo that was very very similar of that same flight.

2) It was a matter of perspective. Nobody else in LA reported this thing, just the one chopper who had video. Apparently from everywhere else in LA it just looked like a plane contrail.

This whole hubbub was caused by the sensationalistic american media that you are now accusing of forgetting this thing. The video is a fluke.

[SteamWake]

That argument of "Here is the same con trail 24 hours later" blows the whole argument out of the water as far as I am concerned.

The same exact atmospheric conditions, the same wind, the same sun angle, the same relative humidity, the same temprature, the same altitude???

As I said before what are the odds.

[FIREWALL]

Calm down ladies. That contrail is what I get for trying to run my Flying Saucer on cheap\cut rate lithium crystals. :O:

[Tribesman]

That contrail is what I get for trying to run my Flying Saucer on cheap\cut rate lithium crystals.

Have you tried running it on bio-diesel? they will probably give you a grant

[AVGWarhawk]

Have you tried running it on bio-diesel? they will probably give you a grant


Looks like ethanol to me. Please pass the corn. :yeah:

[geetrue]

Strange this is the only time this has been recorded by anyone since jets started doing this 35 miles from LAX for well over fifty years now.

The video plainly shows two bright lights exploding near the end of the broadcast video.

Could this be an aborted missile without exploding?

Why should we think a commercial jet contrail when no one can explain it in the first place after going over many FAA, USN, USAF photos.

Contrails???

Do it again to prove it :yep:

and for you people putting the good ole USA news machine down go watch your own crazy stuff on the telly:arrgh!:.