The Korean fogs of war

[Skybird]

http://japanfocus.org/-JJ-Suh/3382

http://www.kpolicy.org/documents/policy/100721seunghunleejjsuhrushtojudgment.html

I had forgotten this story almost completely meanwhile, but got reminded of it again today when reading a German essay hinting me at those authors' names.

[Castout]

Blaming NK is the most sensible and logical thing to do in the event of Cheonan being sunk by external explosion.....with or without proof....considering the prevalent geopolitical situation and the existence of motive(as revenge to previous naval clash)...until proven otherwise or in the presence of another probable and feasible and sensible and justifiable reason that it was another party which caused it presented by either the North Koreans or otherwise!

A lot of times the answer to a question is the simplest and most obvious one until there is reason to think otherwise.

[tater]

http://i241.photobucket.com/albums/ff245/leightonjohns/Sketchbook/frogowar_72.jpg

[TLAM Strike]

http://i241.photobucket.com/albums/ff245/leightonjohns/Sketchbook/frogowar_72.jpg

No! When I said I wanted the FROGs of war I meant these!
http://img215.imageshack.us/img215/6933/twofrog7.jpg (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FROG-7)

[Oberon]

No! When I said I wanted the FROGs of war I meant these!


http://www.enemyforces.net/aircraft/su25.jpg

[Kazuaki Shimazaki II]

Blaming NK is the most sensible and logical thing to do in the event of Cheonan being sunk by external explosion.....with or without proof....considering the prevalent geopolitical situation and the existence of motive(as revenge to previous naval clash)...until proven otherwise or in the presence of another probable and feasible and sensible and justifiable reason that it was another party which caused it presented by either the North Koreans or otherwise!

Leaving the details of the evidence (which can be faked) aside and going by motive, North Korea arguably has the least reason to do the sinking. There might be the pride factor from the naval clash but if one counts objective gains and losses, clearly they have little to gain and much to lose.

If you say America, at least you can say that the incident helps add reason to them maintaining bases in Korea and Japan. I've even heard of arguments saying that getting NK to be even more isolated would be good from a Chinese perspective. Heck, even the Japanese can say that making NK look more like a threat would be a nice excuse to bolster the SDF, which some of their factions want to do.

Besides, for the sake of argument, what exactly were the South Koreans going to do if their investigation suggests that it was the Chinese or worse, the United States that did the sinking?

[TLAM Strike]

Leaving the details of the evidence (which can be faked) aside and going by motive, North Korea arguably has the least reason to do the sinking. There might be the pride factor from the naval clash but if one counts objective gains and losses, clearly they have little to gain and much to lose.

If you say America, at least you can say that the incident helps add reason to them maintaining bases in Korea and Japan. I've even heard of arguments saying that getting NK to be even more isolated would be good from a Chinese perspective. Heck, even the Japanese can say that making NK look more like a threat would be a nice excuse to bolster the SDF, which some of their factions want to do.

Besides, for the sake of argument, what exactly were the South Koreans going to do if their investigation suggests that it was the Chinese or worse, the United States that did the sinking?

Lets put reason aside and look at just who could do it...

We have a warship steaming near hostile waters in depths of 40 meters, at speeds around 15 knots. 15 knots is way beyond the speeds of a Swimmer Delivery Vehicle, and use of the corvette's active sonar could injure the divers. So unless the ship was mined in port with a time charge clandestine sabotage is unlikely, and I would rule out limpet mines placed in port since the DPRK is known to operated units with such capabilities so the ROKN would have defenses set up to prevent it. The waters are too shallow for a Nuclear submarine to operate in so a conventional boat would be necessary. Japanese subs are too big and would risk detection in such confined waters so that leaves a Chinese, North Korean or South Korean submarine.

I would rule out the South Koreans since that would require 30 ROKN sailors to agree to murdering their comrades, plus who knows how many shore personnel to cover up a warshot torpedo is missing.

Could the PRC do it, sure. Returning to why for a second; if the PRC wants to see North Korea more isolated they can do it them selves! The DPRK's only allies are countries like Iran and Myanmar who are not exactly in the positions to help them economically, politically or militarily.

Could the DPRK do it, yes for reasons that have been stated many times over.

[the_tyrant]

Lets put reason aside and look at just who could do it...

We have a warship steaming near hostile waters in depths of 40 meters, at speeds around 15 knots. 15 knots is way beyond the speeds of a Swimmer Delivery Vehicle, and use of the corvette's active sonar could injure the divers. So unless the ship was mined in port with a time charge clandestine sabotage is unlikely, and I would rule out limpet mines placed in port since the DPRK is known to operated units with such capabilities so the ROKN would have defenses set up to prevent it. The waters are too shallow for a Nuclear submarine to operate in so a conventional boat would be necessary. Japanese subs are too big and would risk detection in such confined waters so that leaves a Chinese, North Korean or South Korean submarine.

I would rule out the South Koreans since that would require 30 ROKN sailors to agree to murdering their comrades, plus who knows how many shore personnel to cover up a warshot torpedo is missing.

Could the PRC do it, sure. Returning to why for a second; if the PRC wants to see North Korea more isolated they can do it them selves! The DPRK's only allies are countries like Iran and Myanmar who are not exactly in the positions to help them economically, politically or militarily.

Could the DPRK do it, yes for reasons that have been stated many times over.

it's the little green men.
nah, the great leader did it with his brain:rock:

[Kazuaki Shimazaki II]

Lets put reason aside and look at just who could do it...

We have a warship steaming near hostile waters in depths of 40 meters, at speeds around 15 knots. 15 knots is way beyond the speeds of a Swimmer Delivery Vehicle, and use of the corvette's active sonar could injure the divers. So unless the ship was mined in port with a time charge clandestine sabotage is unlikely, and I would rule out limpet mines placed in port since the DPRK is known to operated units with such capabilities so the ROKN would have defenses set up to prevent it. The waters are too shallow for a Nuclear submarine to operate in so a conventional boat would be necessary. Japanese subs are too big and would risk detection in such confined waters so that leaves a Chinese, North Korean or South Korean submarine.

1) You are considering only "above-the-board", official assets.
2) Part of surprise in combat is to use terrain that your opponent doesn't think you can use.
3) Since they were in a joint exercise, the US was likely in a fine position to know where Cheonan is going and can send in a CAPTOR-like weapon (appropriately disguised in NK colors) in advance.
4) Short of being caught completely, undeniably and publicly red-handed, the United States, compared to all the other possible participants is invulnerable politically. No one wants to accuse them. Which means they can afford to be bolder than anyone else that may be interested.

[Castout]

North Korea leaders don't use the same logic as most of the world leaders so yes they'll do it even when it would put them at disadvantage in international politics.

They are the people who run a regime which were not moved when millions of their own citizen dying of starvation and instead chose on building nuclear program.

It makes perfect sense why North Korea would want to sink a ROK warship especially when the rest of the world would think otherwise.

[Skybird]

My idea back then was that it was an accident or technical weapon malfunction. These scientist'S reports and the reason they give again make me think that the NK attack story was just a coverup to hide one's own failure. Lots can be at stake: high ranks and contracts and prestige. Sure, NK is known for provoking. But it seesm that techncial analysis is not as supportive of that claim as the public is being told.

[joegrundman]

It suits an awful lot of people for the official conclusion to be "most likely, but not conclusively proven, to be the North Koreans".

For S.Korea, it avoids further analysis of what may be more embarrassing, but without being an outright Causus Belli that demands escalation. The last thing the S.Koreans want is war with the North. For many reasons. Firstly, it would cost a lot in blood and treasure, and at risk is Seoul which is very close to the border. If you've ever been there and walked around the old city walls you will see the large number of air defense sites in operation and practising daily.

In addition, the North is still a part of Korea! This means something to S.Koreans who do not wish to see a N.Korea ravaged severely by a massive high-intensity war, and nor do they relish the prospect of being the successor state to a destroyed N.Korea (they are even ambiguous about the prospect of being the successor to an un-destroyed but economically poor N.Korea in the event of peaceful unification)

It doesn't suit the N.Koreans to attack the Cheonan deliberately. The entire N.Korea foreign policy is based on holding the South to ransom with the threat of war. Anything that compels S.Korea to threaten war back is completely counter-productive for N.Korea. Yet if people believe them capable of successfully attacking a moving, pinging, modern warvessel with a single warshot and blowing it clean in half - it doesn't hurt them if people fear their capability.

It doesn't suit China to attack the boat, or have N.K do it. They have no wish to antagonise anything. Their model of peaceful rise has been highly successful by anyone's yardstick. What do they gain by seriously rocking the boat? But since the torpedo is a Chinese design( i believe), it doesn't hurt them for people to believe their torpedoes are proven and highly effective.

It isn't the USA. The USA doesn't do this sort of covert act of war, unless it's part of an imminent/contemporaneous overt war. Also the US doesn't kill its allies except by accident. But anyway, if it was the US, the US would already be at war with N.Korea - in fact it most likely would be over one way or another by now and the US would be in the followon phase of screwing up the occupation and badly attempting to mollify the S.Koreans/Japanese for any heavy damage they incurred.

It doesn't suit the USA for N.K to really have done it, since it forces escalation at a time when the US military is already stretched, war weariness is growing, and the financial situation is troubling. (And N.K doesn't hold out the prospect of oil to alleviate the economic situation)

But it doesn't hurt the USA to pin the blame on the N.Koreans. May put them on the defensive, provides another bargaining chip and allows the US/SK wargames to proceed with N.Korea a bit too defensive to do anything about it. Also diverts difficult questions about what may really have happened.

And it's just not the Japanese (except for accident) - they have nothing to gain by antagonising N.Korea or S.Korea, or China, or the USA.

So having decided that no actor officially sanctioned an attack, this leaves accidental attack, or plain accident.

Can collisions do this much damage? If there is anyway that this could have caused the damage then i rate this as the most likely culprit.

Is it possible that a submarine simulated attack actually fired a warshot by accident- even a N.Korea simulated attack gatecrashing the wargames?

[joegrundman]

North Korea leaders don't use the same logic as most of the world leaders so yes they'll do it even when it would put them at disadvantage in international politics.

They are the people who run a regime which were not moved when millions of their own citizen dying of starvation and instead chose on building nuclear program.

It makes perfect sense why North Korea would want to sink a ROK warship especially when the rest of the world would think otherwise.

Except for the actual "sense" bit