E.T. a machine

[Skybird]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-11041449?print=true



Alien hunters 'should look for artificial intelligence'

By Jason Palmer Science and technology reporter, BBC News

A senior astronomer has said that the hunt for alien life should take into account alien "sentient machines".
Seti, the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, has until now sought radio signals from worlds like Earth.
But Seti astronomer Seth Shostak argues that the time between aliens developing radio technology and artificial intelligence (AI) would be short.
Writing in Acta Astronautica, he says that the odds favour detecting such alien AI rather than "biological" life.
Many involved in Seti have long argued that nature may have solved the problem of life using different designs or chemicals, suggesting extraterrestrials would not only not look like us, but that they would not at a biological level even work like us.
However, Seti searchers have mostly still worked under the assumption - as a starting point for a search of the entire cosmos - that ETs would be "alive" in the sense that we know.




That has led to a hunt for life that is bound to follow at least some rules of biochemistry, live for a finite period of time, procreate, and above all be subject to the processes of evolution.
But Dr Shostak makes the point that while evolution can take a large amount of time to develop beings capable of communicating beyond their own planet, technology would already be advancing fast enough to eclipse the species that wrought it.
"If you look at the timescales for the development of technology, at some point you invent radio and then you go on the air and then we have a chance of finding you," he told BBC News.
"But within a few hundred years of inventing radio - at least if we're any example - you invent thinking machines; we're probably going to do that in this century.
"So you've invented your successors and only for a few hundred years are you... a 'biological' intelligence."
From a probability point of view, if such thinking machines ever evolved, we would be more likely to spot signals from them than from the "biological" life that invented them.
'Moving target'
John Elliott, a Seti research veteran based at Leeds Metropolitan University, UK, says that Dr Shostak is putting on a firmer footing a feeling that is not uncommon in the Seti community.
"You have to start somewhere, and there's nothing wrong with that," Dr Elliott told BBC News.

"But having now looked for signals for 50 years, Seti is going through a process of realising the way our technology is advancing is probably a good indicator of how other civilisations - if they're out there - would've progressed.
"Certainly what we're looking at out there is an evolutionary moving target."
Both Dr Shostak and Dr Elliott concede that finding and decoding any eventual message from such alien thinking machines may prove more difficult than in the "biological" case, but the idea does provide new directions to look.
Dr Shostak says that artificially intelligent alien life would be likely to migrate to places where both matter and energy - the only things he says would be of interest to the machines - would be in plentiful supply. That means the Seti hunt may need to focus its attentions near hot, young stars or even near the centres of galaxies.
"I think we could spend at least a few percent of our time... looking in the directions that are maybe not the most attractive in terms of biological intelligence but maybe where sentient machines are hanging out."

I have subscribed already years ago to the idea that a majority of intelligent "life" out there probably is basing on artifical technology that we may or may not be able to perceive as such, but that has taken over the task of "being aware and being intelligent" from its former organic creators. Not necessarily by a revolt of the machines, but because it may just be the consistent next step, since organic life and it's limited life span may be forever severly handicapped when negotiating stellar dimensions of space and time.

whether we are capable to recognise a superior intelligence as such, is something different. I think in most situation we would not recognise it, becasue it's intelligence is of a complexity and superiority that it simply is beyond our intellectual capacity to recognise it, like the ant you meet in the woods does not recognise you as well - all it may experience and feel is the drop in light and temperature when your shadow falls on the spot of the earth where it is crawling.

In the same way we may be unable to recognise intelligence that is too strange for the ways in which we understand and define "intelligence".

Alien technology also should not be taken for granted to follow the design and idea of the term "technology" like we have it. In the end, all terrestric concepts of "science fiction" - are earth fiction only, thought out by the mind of one species of naked apes living on this planet.

Finally, I have dramatically changed my mind over the past years on the question whether or not we should make known our existence by sending messages into space. In the past I thought that to be cool, but when looking at the history of our species, then I must realise that whereever two cultures have met, the superior in power annihilated or assimilated the inferior. We have no reason to rule out that in the cosmic game it goes any different. This does not mean that ET is a powerhungry warmonger. But we also have no reason to imagine that he is not. That'S why i think it is better to sit silent and just listen, instead of sending messages. Our planet is becoming much more quiet, after the era of powerrful radio transmissions. Internet, cables, and satellites have stealthed the electromagnetic noise the Earth is transmitting into space. we cannot get back the old radio transmissions of the past decades - but we must not add additional ones, even messages giving clues on our construction blueprint and position. That is info to be shared amongst friends.

We do not know if in ET's language the word "friend" even has a meaning. Maybe in his culture, friends eat each other and consider that to be an act of politeness.

"The truth, as always, will be far stranger." (Arthur C. Clarke).

[Oberon]

There's always the possibility of running into Von Neumann probes, or worse, Berserker probes, or even getting a seeder probe attempt to terraform Earth.
We are a very small fish in a very big pond and although we can't see them, there's bound to be much bigger fish out there somewhere. Until we're ready, we should be careful about shouting 'Hi'. :hmmm:

[Jimbuna]

http://imgcash2.imageshack.us/img407/1073/vortex04lw6.gif http://imgcash6.imageshack.us/img407/8895/vortex05wo9.gif

[TLAM Strike]

Then again a species with an long long life span would not need to build machines to colonize other worlds at STL speeds.

A highly advanced civilization may incorporate artificial intelligent robotics in to its own organic bodies or even minds and vice versa.

Lets not forget the opposite idea an advanced species creating an organic artificial intelligence.

A species that evolved in space, or underwater, or in the atmosphere of a gas giant might not even develop technology.

A species like ours that made a few choices in technological innovation could have developed manned rocketry before electronics, and colonized space with slide rules and spreadsheets.

A species with a feudalistic society might stifle technological progress past a certain point to allow its rulers to maintain power over the masses.

The possibilities are endless. But we got to go out there and find out.

[AVGWarhawk]

The alien will be microscopic. :03:

[Skybird]

Then again a species with an long long life span would not need to build machines to colonize other worlds at STL speeds.
That I doubt. The distances are too big. If assuming that said species would need to find not just any planet, but a planet within a given range of physical and chemical settings that are vital for said species, then the distances would even become bigger and the choices fewer. for comparison, even if we would consider the speed of light (which would mean any object travelling with the speed of light gaining infinite mass, so in our theories lightspeed cannot be reached), the next star to us, Alpha Centauri, still would be 4.4 years away - at lightspeed, mind you.

A highly advanced civilization may incorporate artificial intelligent robotics in to its own organic bodies or even minds and vice versa.
the first: yes, but then why not go all the way and delete the vulnerable, maintenance-intensive organic parts alltogether? that'S what would make a cyborg a full machine. And "vice versa"? What do you mean?

Lets not forget the opposite idea an advanced species creating an organic artificial intelligence.
We already have that in a way. Dog races are artifical human creations. but that does nothing for the argument that a form of mahcinery might be better suited to survive the stress and the timespan of space travel, then vulnerable organic hulls of limited lifespan.


A species that evolved in space, or underwater, or in the atmosphere of a gas giant might not even develop technology.
Yes. I have a soft spot for thinking about certain cetaceen and dolphins like that.


A species like ours that made a few choices in technological innovation could have developed manned rocketry before electronics, and colonized space with slide rules and spreadsheets.
Hardly, a purely mechanical device hardly would incorporate the calculation precision needed to "colonize space" - because colonization would need to hit not just the moon nearby, but planets far away. Mind you how long it took us to even find the first planet around another sun - and what ammount of high technology and computer and electroinic and advanced physics was necessary for that.


A species with a feudalistic society might stifle technological progress past a certain point to allow its rulers to maintain power over the masses.
Yes. But we see in our own example thats aid supression could as well been acchieved by subtle manipulation - by the use of such technological progress.

The possibilities are endless. But we got to go out there and find out.

Endless - probabaly not, since some things simply do not go together; but very, very many variations: yes. With the "go out there and find out" I have some difficulties, though. The object of this consideration seems to be a little bit - too big. Not to mention that it is constantly changing and constantly growing.

With the images and ideas we have at present about physics and technology, I think we are encapsuled within very tight limits to what is possible for us. If man reaches just the planets within eyesight in our solar system, let's say as far away as Juptier, maybe Saturn - then this already would be a success that might bepossibole for us in a distant future, but that I already do not take for granted.

The distances we deal with when considering the milky way, not to mention the local group of galaxies or the whole cluster or universe, are simply too unimaginable. currently we cannot even land a man on Mars with a technology that would be fail-safe enough to reduce risks of malfunctions or vulnerabilities to cosmic influences like micro-meteorites to suich a low level that we would think of them to be of the kind we expect such troubles when drivbing in our car. we need weeks and months to repair a toilet that is revolcing around earth at just some hundred kilomters altitude, and to do so costs us logistical efforts and an industrial investement that in earlier times would have been enough to conquer and colonize a whole continent. Space travelling we call this? A little kid that during holidays drives towards the beach and ocean with its parents, and can hear the waves from far away, is not already a sailor by listening to that sound.

If we ever manage to visit - in person the planets of our solar system, then this already would be a monumental success for this vulnerable evolutional desoign that we are. and even for this "close" goal we still need to survive long enough, as a species, or/and a civilisation that asks questions and wants to find out. Unfortunately, many ideologies and special interests are at work in our present that want anything but this.

[UnderseaLcpl]

I would think that if other intelligent life did exist, it would exist in more place than one, and at least some of those civilizations would be older than ours. That being the case, if the were an extraterrestrial lifeform(s) with the means to travel to Earth and hurt us, it stands to reason that we would have picked up somebody's radio transmissions by now. The galaxy is only 100,000 light years across, after all.

[Schroeder]

The Galaxy yes, the universe no. Other life forms don't have to be from our galaxy.;)
Besides, why do you think that an alien species would use radio signals as we do. Maybe the communicate through light or something we've never heard of. If you travel for light years radio communication (that only travels at the speed of light) would be extremely ineffective. You need something faster than light to stay in touch with your home world.

[UnderseaLcpl]

I just assume that at some point in their history they would have used radio communications. You have to start somewhere.

And of course, who knows with extragalactic lifeforms. I doubt we'll find any evidence of their existence or non-existence anytime soon.

[Oberon]

Their radio transmissions may well have reached us when we were banging rocks together for communication and now they're using something bigger and better. I mean, it's a big timeframe we've got to deal with, not to mention a big universe. After all, you say the galaxy is only 100,000 light years across...and radio waves travel at the speed of light (or thereabout), that means that it'd take 100,000 years to get here from the other side of the galaxy. So, it's still a big ballpark.

[Skybird]

I would think that if other intelligent life did exist, it would exist in more place than one, and at least some of those civilizations would be older than ours. That being the case, if the were an extraterrestrial lifeform(s) with the means to travel to Earth and hurt us, it stands to reason that we would have picked up somebody's radio transmissions by now. The galaxy is only 100,000 light years across, after all.

"Only" 100,000 lightyears...? Some more respect, please! Probolem is that most people just read numbers - they do not try to form an image of what they mean. Which in this case is difficult to imagine indeed, I admit.

Could you specify the basis of your assumptions on others using radio signals, 100000 lightyears being "only" 100000 lightyears, and the expected ratio of surviving civilisation being older than ours?

1 lightyear translates into a distance of

9,450,000,000,000 km.

100000 lightyears thus are around 9.45x10^17 km, or

945,000,000,000,000,000 km.

"Only"...?

the next galaxy is 2.5 million lightyears away, Alpha Centauri. In km that is

23,625,000,000,000,000,000 km

When we see Andromeda in the telescope (or the naked eye), we see it as it was 2.5 million years ago. For comparison: the homo erectus appeared on the scence around 1.8 million years ago, the australopithecus africanus is marked at around 2 million years (there were several "models")

The milky way is estimated to feature around 100 billion suns. If you would start to count them and take one second per sun, you woild need 100 billion seconds to count them all - or the equivalent of around 3 thousand years.

Planets not counted.

It is estimated that the region of the milky way in which our sun is located, forms the youngest 10% of star systems, meaning that 90% of those suns in our galaxy would be older than ours - up to hundreds of millions and billions of years. If you assume that only one in a thousand planets can carry life, and just one in one thousand of these life-carrying planets carries intelligent life, and of these one in a thousand in a thousand planets around 90% are millions, hundreds of millions and billions older than our solar system - can you imagine how many civilisations there would be (if they survived of course) that are incredibly older and superior in knowledge to ours? not all stars have planets, but stars may have more planets than one. Let's assume that in mean for each star thewre is one planet (jujst speculation, I have no data basis for this speculation, it's just a mindgame). (10^11/1000)/1000= 100,000. that would be the number of civilisations that are much older than ours. that number means nothing, admitted - i just play games to illustrate what the numbers would mean if they were like this.

How much older could these 100,000 superior civilisation be? If you scale the 14 billion years we estimate since the Big Bang, to one full calender year, than the milky way would have formed up sometime in February. But the solar system would have formed up not before 3rd September, and first life on earth at 22nd September. so theyx could be older by several weeks to several months. One week equals 270 million years.

also, this dance of numbers:
http://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showthread.php?t=173045&page=3
Posting #40.

We have no reason to assume that any superior civilisation must use equivalents to our form of tehcnology, and radio. Also, since when have radio emissions left earth, and powerful7energetic eough to travel long distance? make it 1920, for example? then these transmission have travelled just 90 lightyears deep into space (loosing in clearness and energy while doing that). That is 0.09% of the long axis of the milky way's diameter. the milky way is 3-dimensional, so we would need calculate the volume of the milky way with a diameter of 100000 lyversus a shere of 90 ly. that tells oyu how many stars our radio signals maybe, possibly could have fetched up. and that is: not too many. Now, when the signals reaxches somewhere, the maybe present intelligence "thereW" needs to know what to look for 8which may or may not be in mutual support with it'S way of having a culture, scine and technology). It must be awake and must have switched on it's equipement when the wave reaches it's position. It must send back a signal if it wants to reply - and the reply will travel as many decades as our signals took it to travel there.and finally: the alien intelliegnce must be interested and motivated to answer.

there are so many reasons we can imagine why we have not picked up signals so far. Add the even greater number of reasons that we can not imagine. Or do you think we are so fantastic that the galaxy is standing in line just to make our acquaintance? We humans tend to think we are so supr, so cool, so "in". just some generations ago - and not many! - we still tried to make the whole universe revolve around Earth. But I think, in this galaxy the odds are that we are - just one of the latest newcomers in the babygroup in the Kindergarden.

[TLAM Strike]

That I doubt. The distances are too big. If assuming that said species would need to find not just any planet, but a planet within a given range of physical and chemical settings that are vital for said species, then the distances would even become bigger and the choices fewer. for comparison, even if we would consider the speed of light (which would mean any object travelling with the speed of light gaining infinite mass, so in our theories lightspeed cannot be reached), the next star to us, Alpha Centauri, still would be 4.4 years away - at lightspeed, mind you. I was thinking of species like the Hydra (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydra_%28genus%29) which appears to be biologically immortal. Hypothetically speaking if a intelligent species were to evolve from one and become space faring travel for them would just be a question of filling the time to get there not would you have died of old age when the ship gets there.


the first: yes, but then why not go all the way and delete the vulnerable, maintenance-intensive organic parts alltogether? that'S what would make a cyborg a full machine. Long term adaptation and evolution in different environments. Radiation tends to destroy the electronic while causes mutation and diversity in the organic.

And "vice versa"? What do you mean? I guess the scarier possibility is robots creating humanoids to serve them.


Hardly, a purely mechanical device hardly would incorporate the calculation precision needed to "colonize space" - because colonization would need to hit not just the moon nearby, but planets far away. Mind you how long it took us to even find the first planet around another sun - and what ammount of high technology and computer and electroinic and advanced physics was necessary for that. Calculating flights in a solar system is very possible using a mechanical computer and some astogation. Flights to other stars become shots in the dark (No idea what is there) but technologically feasible.



Endless - probabaly not, since some things simply do not go together... There is probably a communist planet out there somewhere where all the bizarre contradictions come true. :O:


With the images and ideas we have at present about physics and technology, I think we are encapsuled within very tight limits to what is possible for us. If man reaches just the planets within eyesight in our solar system, let's say as far away as Juptier, maybe Saturn - then this already would be a success that might bepossibole for us in a distant future, but that I already do not take for granted. Missions to the Gas Giants are possible, its more a question of national will and the almighty dollar. (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=22iv_g7u6IQ)

[Bilge_Rat]

100,000 light years diameter is only our own Milky Way galaxy which contains 100-400 billion stars.

The entire observable universe is estimated at a diameter of around 100 billion light years composed of clusters and super-clusters of many thousand galaxies, each roughly the same size as our Milky Way.

It defies the laws of probabilities to imagine that planet earth hosts the only life forms in the universe. Even if you assume only one star in 100,000 has a planet capable of sustaining life, that still leaves 100,000-400,000 potential host planets just in our galaxy.

The Universe has been around an estimated 14 billion years. A civilization which started 1,000, 10,000 or even 100,000 years before our own (a blink of an eye in Galactic time) would be advanced in ways we cannot even comprehend and might regard us not as a fellow intelligent species, but much as we perceive animals or even plants or microbes.

so I agree with Oberon, we should figure out what is out there before we advertise our presence.

[TLAM Strike]

so I agree with Oberon, we should figure out what is out there before we advertise our presence.

Did you watch the video I posted a link to? The USAF was (credibly) talking about building nuclear powered space battleships capable of devastating entire planets back in late 1950s!

Personally I prefer us to advertise our presence with a fleet of these entering E.T. home system.

[UnderseaLcpl]

I'm still watching the damn thing. It's loooong. Very interesting, though. Thanks for sharing.

[Bilge_Rat]

Did you watch the video I posted a link to? The USAF was (credibly) talking about building nuclear powered space battleships capable of devastating entire planets back in late 1950s!

Personally I prefer us to advertise our presence with a fleet of these entering E.T. home system.


unfortunately, I cant watch youtube from here.

of course, we have to consider the possibility that any space weapon we build might be as useless as Nelson's 1805 fleet would be in 2010.

The human race right now may be in the same position as the Native Americans in 1491 before they were "discovered" by "civilized" europeans. We all know how well that turned out...:ping:

[TLAM Strike]

unfortunately, I cant watch youtube from here. Been there and know how it feels. :(

of course, we have to consider the possibility that any space weapon we build might be as useless as Nelson's 1805 fleet would be in 2010. 100 something 1800s cannons targeting a civilian population center could be nasty today. Same could be said for an Orion, simply use it to divert a bunch of asteroids toward E.T. homeworld.

The human race right now may be in the same position as the Native Americans in 1491 before they were "discovered" by "civilized" europeans. We all know how well that turned out...:ping: Yea they got casinos, and don't have to pay taxes! :O:

Don't forget an "Injin" bow and arrow could kill a European easily and fire far more rounds per minute that a musket or rifled musket. It wasn't until the repeating rifle (like the Henry or Winchester) that the whites gained superiority. Of course at Custer's Last Stand take a guess what some of the Lakota and Cheyenne were armed with? Yep repeating rifles, stolen, captured or traded for.

[Skybird]

When assessing the developement gap between man and ET from one of those advanced 100.000 civilisations I calculated somehwere above, then we do not talk of a gap in time of just 500 years. More like 5 million years and 5 hundred million years.

That's what makes all this speculation just a mixture of 1. typical human antropomorphising, and 2. - well, right that: ungrounded speculation.

In the 80s there was this TV series, "V". Back then, as a teen I thought it was cool, to soem degree. But if you look at it more closely, it simply is the most absurd nonsense you can think of. "Dallas" in space, "Dynasty" with funny costumes. :)

But I had a crush on that cute, blond good looking girl leading the resistance group. :DL

[TLAM Strike]

When assessing the developement gap between man and ET from one of those advanced 100.000 civilisations I calculated somehwere above, then we do not talk of a gap in time of just 500 years. More like 5 million years and 5 hundred million years. Such lengths of time do creditably to the theory that any advanced civlzation out there would be now extinct.

In the 80s there was this TV series, "V". Back then, as a teen I thought it was cool, to soem degree. But if you look at it more closely, it simply is the most absurd nonsense you can think of. "Dallas" in space, "Dynasty" with funny costumes. :)
Plus they were after our water, the most abundant chemical compound in the universe. :haha:

[Bilge_Rat]

That's what makes all this speculation just a mixture of......ungrounded speculation.




is'nt that what the whole GT forum is about...:D

[Skybird]

Such lengths of time do creditably to the theory that any advanced civlzation out there would be now extinct.



Maybe. But you overlook that there are those other civilisations that also come in legions that exist right now and still can be avdanced to us by hundreds of thousands of years - and just have had not the needed time to reach us in communication and that our radio signals have not had the time to reach them.

if we would have an intended target receiver of our message, maybe he would be so far away that he has gone missing when our message finally reaches him in some thousand years. But others who have not been there when we hit the transit button, may pick it up, may reply - and wonder why they never get an answer from us. :hmmm: :03:

Because we will go missing sooner or later, too. - I mentioned the cosmic calender analogy earlier, somewhere above. If the 14 billion years since the big Bang would be scaled to match one regular Earth year, and our present now would represent the 31. Decembre at 23:59:59 hours, then the milky way formed up sometime during February, and the solar system formed up early September. The dinosaurs would have appeared on the 28. Decembre and died on 30. Decembre. Early hominides saw the light of earth on 31.12. at around 9 pm, just 3 hours ago. The pyramides were built 11 seconds ago, and you and me were born around just 1 tenth of a second ago. The dinosaurs died yesterday. In real life, that one day in the analogy is 65 million of our Earth years.

[TLAM Strike]

Maybe. But you overlook that there are those other civilisations that also come in legions that exist right now and still can be avdanced to us by hundreds of thousands of years - and just have had not the needed time to reach us in communication and that our radio signals have not had the time to reach them. True but this is where relativity and time dilation messes things up. IIRC You are a fan of Joe Halderman's The Forever War so you might be familiar with this scenario.

Lets say tomorrow our first high powered radio signal arrives at a inhabited star system say Zeta Leporis 70 light years away. The Leporians send their invasion fleet to Sol just under the Speed of Light .9999 c. When they arrive 70 years from now (their time) the human race is now 3,528,000 years older they when they left their homeworld.

Now if their ships were not quite that fast, say .9 c then we only advance only 102,200 years since their departure.

100,000 years basically equals humans going from developing primitive language and finding out that deer hides can be worn over their bodies to humans developing the internet and finding out that men don't want women to cover their bodies with deer hides.

When E.T. arrives we maybe more advanced then them. :hmmm: