Planners of Germany's Afghanistan participation have grown wiser

[Skybird]

Several high ranking poltiical and milutary actors who formed - and once agreed - to Germany's maze-like Afghanistan mission, have revised their thoughts and decisions they had made almost ten years ago, from defense ministers to high ranking milizary representatives.

Nobody seems to think anymore there will be any positive outcome to this adventure. And in principle, they just admit this: "we have been fools".

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,druck-700745,00.html


"One year, then we'd be back out, that's what we thought back then," Struck says, poking at his fish, before adding, "We thoroughly deceived ourselves."
(...)
Unnoticed by the general public, Stützle gave a talk at the East-West Forum Gut Gödelitz this January that contained a minor sensation. "Afghanistan -- the Failed Intervention" was the title of his paper, and the text began with the words, "The military intervention in Afghanistan was and remains a grave error."
(...)
The security expert is unimpressed by US General McChrystal's new strategy. "It follows the principal that if aspirin doesn't work, we'll use extra strength aspirin," Stützle says. "Policy can't be made dependent on the strategy of a single general."

[Schroeder]

I think we only have two options in Afghanistan. Either use real force to crush the Taliban (which is easier said than done since they hide away among civilians and often outside of Afghanistan), or leave the mess behind. Both options seem to be bad for us.
We either take a lot of casualties fighting the fight (and don't forget about all the collateral damage and the big press it makes) or we admit that we have been defeated and go home. Giving back the responsibility to the Afghans and leaving will have the same effect as leaving right now. Maybe the Taliban will need a little longer to re-establish themselves but I don't doubt for a minute that they will eventually after Nato has pulled out.

Well, there might be a third option but that would require too much money. Give the Afghans a economical perspective. Build up some industry there that creates jobs. I believe that great amounts of resources have just been found in Afghanistan. Let them exploit them themselves so that some money gets into the country (why am I so convinced that this isn't going to happen and that some western companies will make all the profit....).
With a blooming economy the money that the Taliban offer might become less attractive. :hmm2:

[Skybird]

I see no way to get rid of the Taleban. It would mean to crush Pakistan first, and there is neither the will to try that nor the military and finacial resources to do it. Plus they have sympathies in parts of the Afghan people, while other see them as the lesser evil again, compared to the ongoing war.

Eh, pardon, the correct term to be used in Germany of course is "non-war".

The economic perspective, althoigh arguing without recent resource findings, has been a card that was played by politicians supporting Afghanistan since 9 years now, and it led nowhere. Money was dumped in bottomless holes, much disappeared in dark, unknown channels. I do not believe that the new resource findings will make much difference for the ordinary people - in a country were corruption and ethnic tribal clans are as deep rooting as there. We will see corrupt cliques filling their pockets, and much money going to the Taleban again (they already made a fortune by taxing drugs when they still were in power). the wide public will not share much of the wealth from that.

These resources they have found will make it more difficult to argue in favour of an early retreat, which is a shame, and they will prove to be of some good and much more bad for the Afghans.

Trapped in the Afghan maze.

I just love to bring that phrase time and again. It says everything about Afghanistan that is important.