A Decade of Self-Delusion/Buchanan

[AVGWarhawk]

A Decade of Self-Delusion
by Patrick J. Buchanan (http://www.humanevents.com/search.php?author_name=Patrick J.+Buchanan)

12/29/2009


About the first decade of what was to be the Second American Century, the pessimists have been proven right.

According to the International Monetary Fund, the United States began the century producing 32 percent of the world's gross domestic product. We ended the decade producing 24 percent. No nation in modern history, save for the late Soviet Union, has seen so precipitous a decline in relative power in a single decade.

The United States began the century with a budget surplus. We ended with a deficit of 10 percent of gross domestic product, which will be repeated in 2010. Where the economy was at full employment in 2000, 10 percent of the labor force is out of work today and another 7 percent is underemployed or has given up looking for a job.



Between one-fourth and one-third of all U.S. manufacturing jobs have disappeared in 10 years, the fruits of a free-trade ideology that has proven anything but free for this country. Our future is being outsourced -- to China.

While the median income of American families was stagnant, the national debt doubled.

The dollar lost half its value against the euro. Once the most self-sufficient republic in history, which produced 96 percent of all it consumed, the U.S.A. is almost as dependent on foreign nations today for manufactured goods, and the loans to pay for them, as we were in the early years of the republic.

What the British were to us then, China is today.

Beijing holds the mortgage and grows impatient as we endlessly borrow on equity and refuse to begin paying it down. The possibility exists of an eventual run on the dollar or even a U.S. debt default.

Who did this to us? We did it to ourselves.

We sold ourselves a lot of snake oil about the Global Economy, interdependence, free trade and "it doesn't make any difference where goods are produced." The George W. Bush Republicans ran up the deficit with tax cuts, two wars and a splurge in social spending to rival the guns-and-butter of the Great Society.

Abandoning its role as the fellow who comes and takes away the punch bowl when the party's getting good, the Fed kept the money flowing fast and free, creating the tech bubble that burst in Y2K and the stock and housing bubble that burst at decade's end.

To pull us back from the cliff's edge, over which we were headed a year ago, the Fed doubled the money supply, while the administration ran up deficit spending to the highest level since World War II.

Unlike World War II, however, there is no end in sight to these deficits.

The stock market, which flat-lined over the decade, had to surge 50 percent in 2009 to retrieve the worst losses since the Depression.

Everyone, it seems, except for Washington bureaucrats and Wall Street, for whom the bonuses never seem to stop, has been hammered by the sinking home values and shrinking portfolios.

After Sept. 11, the nation was united behind a president as it had not been since Pearl Harbor. But instead of focusing on the enemies who did this to us, we took Osama bin Laden's bait and plunged into a war in Iraq that bled and divided us, alienated Europe and the Arab world, and destroyed the Republican Party's reputation as the reliable custodian of national security and foreign policy.

The party paid -- with the loss of both houses in 2006 and the presidency in 2008 -- but the nation has not stopped paying.

With nearly 200,000 troops in Iraq and Afghanistan and another 30,000 more on the way, al-Qaida is now in Pakistan, Yemen, Somalia and North Africa, while the huge U.S. military presence in Afghanistan and Iraq serves as its recruiting poster.

Again, it is not a malevolent fate that has done this to us. We did it to ourselves. We believed all that hubristic blather about our being the "greatest empire since Rome," the "indispensable nation" and "unipolar power" advancing to "benevolent global hegemony" in a series of "cakewalk" wars to "end tyranny in our world."

After a decade of self-delusion and self-indulgence, we must stop deceiving ourselves. As Hurricane Katrina demonstrated, the "can-do" nation that won World War II in Europe and the Pacific in less than four years, that put a man on the moon in the same decade JFK said we would, is history.

We have a government that cannot balance its books, defend its borders or win its wars. And what is it now doing? Drafting another entitlement program as we are informed that the Social Security and Medicare trust funds have unfunded liabilities in the trillions.

At the end of the first decade of the 21st century, the question is not whether we will preside over the creation of a New World Order, but whether America's decline is irreversible.

[Oberon]

All great nations rise and fall, look at us, we spent the best part of a century or two ruling the oceans and labelling the world. Between us, Spain, France and Germany we owned most of the planet, nowadays the most excitement we get is bickering in the EU.
China will be next, it is rising at the moment, the next decade is theirs, of that I think there is little doubt, however eventually they to will face their decline and a new power will take their place again, and so the cycle will continue. It's more noticeable and global now because of how 'small' the world is with modern technology.
Question is though, is Isolation and rebuilding really an option any more? On one hand an America-first policy may lead to a new golden age in internal domestics at the cost of international prestige, however it leaves the nation wide open to suprise external act of aggression, such as 9/11 or Pearl Harbour, however a nation could bled itself white trying to police the world by itself, and most of the allies of America are either in dire straits themselves or pulling out of the alliance already to try and save themselves.
I'm not the President of the US, and somedays I think that even if the job was offered to me I would turn it down because right now whatever decisions are made the end result is the same, failure. Obama cannot live up to the hype that has been created, in fact, he will not live up to that hype. Obama created a dream, a dream that democrats and those who have been fed up with Bush wanted to believe in, but it is just that, a dream and at the end of the day, Obama is merely human and as a human he will make mistakes, one of the biggest mistakes was perhaps letting the hype that built up to his presidency get out of hand, another seems to be pushing through possibly unpopular legislation through backroom dealings, but that's probably nothing new in Congress I dare say, but it's more noticable now because in his haste to put himself forward as a new way forward for America (Change we can believe in) he has made it certain that he cannot take a dump without it being analysed by fourteen different news services and spun by the left and right into shields and swords in the political war which has been fought in the US for decades (although it seems that in the day of instant communications and internet trolls the war has become more heated than ever before).

TLDR?
Decline is natural, dealing with it is the important matter.
Do not cling onto the past at the expense of the future.

[Skybird]

What goes up, must come down.

All the West is in free fall. Many of us are just too proud or too afraid to admit it. Western values are not half as attractive to the rest of the world, as we believe they are. And where we once assumed that other try to learn from us due to our cultural attractiveness, we now must realise that they only learned from us in order to learn how to beat us. China, India and increasingly Brazil show us their contempt - and by that demonstration show us the limits of our power, and how little influence left we really have. Demographic trends have formed a self-dynamic that we cannot escape although being at our disadvantage.

In the end, much of our failure comes from our own arrogance and reality-rejecting self-glorification. we believed we were so convincing for the others, and the ultimate answer to an asking world. But in fact our culture leaves the autumn of it's life-year, and has entered winter.

So it goes in life and in the world: what goes up, must come down. Sometimes earlier, sometimes later. Often I feel to set up a fight in defence of what once was noble and valuable in our culture. My hostility towards Islam is expression of that, but i am quiet aware that it is a form of desperation of mine, for somewhere in my heart I know that we are fighting on a lost outpost. So on other days I just feel hopeless trying to save what once there was in noble and valubale qualities, and think that now it probably all is in vain anyway.

[mookiemookie]

Decline is natural, dealing with it is the important matter.


Exactly the subject of Fareed Zakaria's excellent book "The Post American World" http://www.amazon.com/Post-American-World-Fareed-Zakaria/dp/039306235X

[Ducimus]

We've been in decline for some time now. I'm guessing for the last 15 years or so it's been a steady decline. What's funny is how it's considered damned unpatriotic to think or acknowledge it.

Combined all the aforementioned items in AVG's post, with things like, the diminishing middle class. How class boundries are becoming increasingly distinct. Executives making huge salaries bonuses while outsouricng american jobs overseas. I feel we've become a consumerist nation of two distinct classes: those in service oriented jobs, and the gilded elite that manage them; with little in between.

On a related note, I also believe that we no longer have the capacity to win any major wars because most of the industriy that won WW2, is now in China and elsewhere, with more jobs on the chopping block. We are well on our way to becoming a poor nation. The philoslphy of "America First", and "Made in the USA" need to return and are a long time over due.

[CaptainHaplo]

Decline is natural. In fact, its part of ANY system. However, the problems America faces are mirrored in nature. In essence, the natural cycle is growth, leveling, contraction, repeatedly. It is seen in the seasons. Each one gives birth to the next stage, and at the end - winter - a rebirth of growth is seen. However, what the last 2 decades of American government has done is try to hold off the contraction - which means it built and built until we find ourselves having to deal with a much worse contraction than would have originally happened. The blame lies not with one party vs the other, but with the entire leadership of the past 15-20 years.

The same pattern can be seen in forest fires, or other innumerable examples of nature. If you try to halt the cycle, there is a backlash that outpowers your ability to halt it - and only after equilibrium has been restored does the growth begin again.

There is nothing "unpatriotic" about recognizing the mistakes of your nation. What is unpatriotic is not being willing to not continuing to make the same mistakes again. The American people are waking up - the question is - are they going to be awake enough in time?

[August]

There is nothing "unpatriotic" about recognizing the mistakes of your nation.

A nations mistakes Hap are not necessarily the same thing as a nations decline and while I don't think it's unpatriotic to talk about either one, there is a real danger in believing too firmly in their inevitability.

After all one can't win at anything if one believes they will loose.

[Aramike]

On a related note, I also believe that we no longer have the capacity to win any major wars because most of the industriy that won WW2, is now in China and elsewhere, with more jobs on the chopping block. We are well on our way to becoming a poor nation. The philoslphy of "America First", and "Made in the USA" need to return and are a long time over due. I disagree with this on a ridiculous amount of fronts.

First, industry isn't something that just "is". It is created by demand. Wars create demand. As such, industry is created. In a nation with a burgeoning unemployment rate, should industry need to be created in response to a war, it would be quite simple considering that the infrastructure of doing so exists.

In fact, a similar scenario occurred during WWII - industry was created (one of the oft-overlooked side-effects of the war was it's positive effect on the US economy, and how that economic strength led to America's world dominance in currency and credit).

The concept comes down to ability: could we create factories, possess the materials, etc. needed to fuel war industry?

Absolutely.

In fact, your Chinese outsourcing example fails for the mere fact that doing so does not in any way reduce the building blocks of capacity - in fact, it INCREASES their availability (which, in turn, is why outsourcing has a negative impact on the US economy).

In other, simpler words: a major industrial war would be just the ticket to jumpstarting the US economy. Just like it did regarding WWII.

That leads into something else: what makes you think that any war the US would plausibly be involved in would be an industrial conflict? The only nation on the planet capable of realistically causing such a conflict would be China, and THAT would only feesibly occur should the US have aggressive intentions towards the nation - a nation that, I might add, would be completely broke without US consumerism (why do you think China never presses the outstanding US debt?).

The evolution of weapons have made them stronger and smarter meaning less of them need be used. We can pinpoint cruise missiles on any target in the world from a thousand safe miles away, bombing targets into submission. In the case of that failing, we have the ability to project airpower to ANY nation on the 6 fully inhabited continental landmasses.

The bottom line is that, what once took 1000s of artillary shells assembled by hand now takes 4 or 5 missiles. Sure, there still is a need for those shells, but machines are a far more effecient assembly line worker, and we have plenty of those.

The industry needed to sustain a modern conflict is a mere fraction of what was needed 80 years ago, and there is no doubt that we have the infrastructure and ability to do so.

PS: I do agree that the America First philosophies should return.

[Snestorm]

In USA the overlap between the leaders of government, and the leaders of industry, has become too great. It is through this overlapping of power that many americans lost their jobs to Free Trade and Globalization, while the industry was free to exploit cheap labor elsewhere.
On the other side of the coin, there are now more workers than jobs, resulting in lower wages domesticly. The a double win for the leaders of industry, and a double loss for working people.

The economy, and eventualy military might, of USA will decline substantialy, because the indusrtry and self sufficiantcy that created the economic powerbase has declined substantialy.


Although it would come at a price, there are ways to begin a long term recovery.
1: Abandon the role of world policeman.
2: Abandon the Federal Reserve, and all debt.
3: Re-employ the US Treasury to their constitutional responsability (The coinning of money).
4: Remove all powers from the US Government, except those specified in the US Constitution.
5: READ YOUR CONSTITUTION, and realize that it was deliberately written in simple english so the masses could understand it WITHOUT "INTERPRETATION".
6: Implementation of a 100% tarrif, on all imported goods.
7: Elimination of the Income Tax.
8: Immigration crackdown.

And finaly USA needs to look after USA first.

[AVGWarhawk]

On a related note, I also believe that we no longer have the capacity to win any major wars because most of the industriy that won WW2, is now in China and elsewhere, with more jobs on the chopping block. We are well on our way to becoming a poor nation. The philoslphy of "America First", and "Made in the USA" need to return and are a long time over due.


I can assure you we have wait it takes. I can also assure you the development of future weapons is ongoing. That is all I can say. :03:

I 100% agree that for now it needs to be America First.

[AVGWarhawk]

Although it would come at a price, there are ways to begin a long term recovery.
1: Abandon the role of world policeman.
2: Abandon the Federal Reserve, and all debt.
3: Re-employ the US Treasury to their constitutional responsability (The coinning of money).
4: Remove all powers from the US Government, except those specified in the US Constitution.
5: READ YOUR CONSTITUTION, and realize that it was deliberately written in simple english so the masses could understand it WITHOUT "INTERPRETATION".
6: Implementation of a 100% tarrif, on all imported goods.
7: Elimination of the Income Tax.
8: Immigration crackdown.

And finaly USA needs to look after USA first.

100% agree however we are so deep in the crap it will never happen.

[Ducimus]

I can assure you we have wait it takes.

If the blue collar worker hasn't been in decline (along with the middle class) for the last two decades, id probably agree with you. My opinion also stems in part from todays work ethic in America. It sucks. Old world values like "a days work", and " a craftsman's promise" are increasingly rare from what i've seen. Toss in a little " self entitlement" that is present in many people along with that. In a large war scenario, I honestly don't think enough people would pitch in to the effort, with most opting to "let others do it". This is why I believe that we no longer have the capacity to win any major wars

[AVGWarhawk]

If the blue collar worker hasn't been in decline (along with the middle class) for the last two decades, id probably agree with you. My opinion also stems in part from todays work ethic in America. It sucks. Old world values like "a days work", and " a craftsman's promise" are increasingly rare from what i've seen. Toss in a little " self entitlement" that is present in many people along with that. In a large war scenario, I honestly don't think enough people would pitch in to the effort, with most opting to "let others do it". This is why I believe that we no longer have the capacity to win any major wars


You have to believe we do and that is all I can say.

[Aramike]

My opinion also stems in part from todays work ethic in America. It sucks.This part I don't necessarily disagree with, except that major wars have a way of galvanizing the workforce.

[Snestorm]

This part I don't necessarily disagree with, except that major wars have a way of galvanizing the workforce.

And pushing nations further into debt.

[Castout]

All great nations rise and fall, look at us, we spent the best part of a century or two ruling the oceans and labelling the world. Between us, Spain, France and Germany we owned most of the planet, nowadays the most excitement we get is bickering in the EU.


The British ruled the ocean and expanded its empire until post WWII and without its colonies the British could ill afford to maintain a dominant military. Now it's just another nation among others in EU. US rose after winning the second world war. It benefited from having won the second world war especially during the 1960s to 1970s having nullified economic competition from elsewhere. A benefit that it now no longer receives as other European and Asian countries have caught up in getting hold of a share in the economic pie(demand) themselves.

Any mankind enterprise is bound to fall sooner or later. There's no company that's going to stay around forever as there's no nation that's going to dominate forever. They could fall either by external pressure or internal problems such as regression(corruption and complacency) or a combination of both. I wish I could live another 100 year to see which country is going to hold superpower status and see how the world responds to it.

Anyway just my 2 cents.

[Torvald Von Mansee]

Combined all the aforementioned items in AVG's post, with things like, the diminishing middle class. How class boundries are becoming increasingly distinct. Executives making huge salaries bonuses while outsouricng american jobs overseas. I feel we've become a consumerist nation of two distinct classes: those in service oriented jobs, and the gilded elite that manage them; with little in between.


I was under the impression when I was visiting a friend in Florida that 99% of their population worked liked dogs, and the remaining 1% lived in jaw dropping splendor because of it.

Annoying fact: I was only two blocks from the "public" beach, but couldn't get to it because of the unbroken line of rich people's houses blocking access to it.

If I ever move to a warm state, it will have to be either California or Hawaii.