RoaldLarsen
12-05-09, 06:30 PM
I'm following a campaign in which I keep one career operating for each flotilla modeled by the game. (In 1939 and 1940, I had two careers per flotilla to balance out the smaller number of active flotillas.) When a Kaleun is killed or retires, a new career takes his place, starting at about the time the previous career ended. I previously posted a summary of my 1943 patrols. This post is about what 1944 looked like.
At the end of 1943 I made the following predictions: Looking forward to 1944 I expect to have fewer patrols, as turnaround time increases, and build/maintenance quality declines. By the end of the year there will be only two flotillas operating instead of the 7 I have currently, so I will be replacing fewer careers. Patrols will become shorter as there will be fewer assignments farther afield. Losses will increase, tonnage will decline. I am hoping to be able to have a patrol survival rate of > 2/3. The rate of suffering will go up, but the overall volume will go down. I guess I'll have about 18-20 patrols, about 400 sea days, about 6 or 7 lost boats and only about 250,000 - 300,000 tons sunk.
This is a summary of my patrols since the start of the war:
____________________ ___1939 ___1940 ___1941 ___1942 ___1943 ___1944
Number of Patrols___ _____26 _____40 _____27 _____34 _____31 _____29
Days at Sea_________ ____436 ____528 ____420 ____681 ____962 ____711
Days per Patrol_____ ___16.8 ___13.2 ___15.6 ___20.0 ___32.0 ___25.7
Tonnage Sunk________ 648,396 850,593 681,374 921,375 692,700 553,899
Tonnage per Patrol__ _24,938 _21,265 _25,236 _27,099 _21,647 _19,100
Aircraft Shot Down__ ______0 ______1 ______5 ______7 _____24 ____144
Subs Lost___________ ______1 ______2 ______0 ______4 ______7 ______5
Patrols per Lost Sub ___26.0 ___20.0 _____∞ ____8.5 ____4.6 ____5.8
Tonnage per Lost Sub 648,396 425,297 _____∞ 230,344 _98,957 110,780
The biggest surprises were the huge number of aircraft shot down coupled with a reduction in the number of sub losses. Many of my predictions were off. I did have fewer, shorter patrols, but there were more of them than I expected, and they lasted longer than predicted. The survival rate was higher, and as a result of these three differences, I sank double the tonnage I had expected.
The increase in aircraft kills is reflective of a huge increase in the number of times I was attacked when I could not safely dive: either the water was too shallow, or the aircraft were spotted too late. It may also reflect an increase in the number of aircraft per attack (more targets to destroy) and an improvement in Flak armament. In 1944 nearly all my subs had eight 20mm barrels - one vierling and two zwillings. Nevertheless, Flak remain far too accurate for realism.
Given the increase in attacks by aircraft, I am at a loss to explain the reduction in numbers of subs lost. I survived far too many air attacks. Combat with aircraft is clearly an area where the game needs tuning. I have been able to get the number of attacks and the amount of warning to a point I think is fairly realistic, but the aircraft are too inaccurate and the sub's Flak is way too accurate.
Once again, there was a significant difference in survivability between Type VII and Type IX boats. Type IX patrols resulted in a loss 30% of the time, but type VIIs only experienced an 11% loss rate. Four of my five losses were to aircraft.
There was a significant reduction in the number of attacks on convoys, not because of better convoy defenses, but because it was difficult to get close to convoys due to having to spend so much time submerged avoiding aircraft. The tonnage is so high only because the game models far too many ships sailing independently or in groups of two or three.
I've subtitled this post "Beginning of the End" because it is apparent that the u-boat is spending almost all its time as the hunted and almost never as the hunter.
At the end of 1943 I made the following predictions: Looking forward to 1944 I expect to have fewer patrols, as turnaround time increases, and build/maintenance quality declines. By the end of the year there will be only two flotillas operating instead of the 7 I have currently, so I will be replacing fewer careers. Patrols will become shorter as there will be fewer assignments farther afield. Losses will increase, tonnage will decline. I am hoping to be able to have a patrol survival rate of > 2/3. The rate of suffering will go up, but the overall volume will go down. I guess I'll have about 18-20 patrols, about 400 sea days, about 6 or 7 lost boats and only about 250,000 - 300,000 tons sunk.
This is a summary of my patrols since the start of the war:
____________________ ___1939 ___1940 ___1941 ___1942 ___1943 ___1944
Number of Patrols___ _____26 _____40 _____27 _____34 _____31 _____29
Days at Sea_________ ____436 ____528 ____420 ____681 ____962 ____711
Days per Patrol_____ ___16.8 ___13.2 ___15.6 ___20.0 ___32.0 ___25.7
Tonnage Sunk________ 648,396 850,593 681,374 921,375 692,700 553,899
Tonnage per Patrol__ _24,938 _21,265 _25,236 _27,099 _21,647 _19,100
Aircraft Shot Down__ ______0 ______1 ______5 ______7 _____24 ____144
Subs Lost___________ ______1 ______2 ______0 ______4 ______7 ______5
Patrols per Lost Sub ___26.0 ___20.0 _____∞ ____8.5 ____4.6 ____5.8
Tonnage per Lost Sub 648,396 425,297 _____∞ 230,344 _98,957 110,780
The biggest surprises were the huge number of aircraft shot down coupled with a reduction in the number of sub losses. Many of my predictions were off. I did have fewer, shorter patrols, but there were more of them than I expected, and they lasted longer than predicted. The survival rate was higher, and as a result of these three differences, I sank double the tonnage I had expected.
The increase in aircraft kills is reflective of a huge increase in the number of times I was attacked when I could not safely dive: either the water was too shallow, or the aircraft were spotted too late. It may also reflect an increase in the number of aircraft per attack (more targets to destroy) and an improvement in Flak armament. In 1944 nearly all my subs had eight 20mm barrels - one vierling and two zwillings. Nevertheless, Flak remain far too accurate for realism.
Given the increase in attacks by aircraft, I am at a loss to explain the reduction in numbers of subs lost. I survived far too many air attacks. Combat with aircraft is clearly an area where the game needs tuning. I have been able to get the number of attacks and the amount of warning to a point I think is fairly realistic, but the aircraft are too inaccurate and the sub's Flak is way too accurate.
Once again, there was a significant difference in survivability between Type VII and Type IX boats. Type IX patrols resulted in a loss 30% of the time, but type VIIs only experienced an 11% loss rate. Four of my five losses were to aircraft.
There was a significant reduction in the number of attacks on convoys, not because of better convoy defenses, but because it was difficult to get close to convoys due to having to spend so much time submerged avoiding aircraft. The tonnage is so high only because the game models far too many ships sailing independently or in groups of two or three.
I've subtitled this post "Beginning of the End" because it is apparent that the u-boat is spending almost all its time as the hunted and almost never as the hunter.