Can the United States pay the money back?

[Onkel Neal]

We're Borrowing Like Mad. Can the U.S. Pay It Back? (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/01/09/AR2009010902325_pf.html)

Interesting article, though 7 months old.

The United States has never failed to repay a debt in its history. But it has twice altered the repayment terms, notes a study by Carmen M. Reinhart of the University of Maryland and Kenneth S. Rogoff of Harvard University. In 1790, when the infant republic took over the states' colonial-era debts, it deferred some interest for 10 years. A more pertinent case occurred during the Great Depression. In 1933, President Franklin D. Roosevelt devalued the dollar by 41 percent against gold.

Which makes me wonder, which, if any, countries have failed to repay debt?

[SteamWake]

We're Borrowing Like Mad. Can the U.S. Pay It Back? (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/01/09/AR2009010902325_pf.html)

Interesting article, though 7 months old.



Which makes me wonder, which, if any, countries have failed to repay debt?

Several countries are indebted to the US for decades but the issue is never really pushed.

What I find disturbing is whom holds all this debt for us. For the most part it is China :o

http://www.mikenew.com/un-debt.html

[Onkel Neal]

China. And you know, I would have said the US could be good for it have paid it off--60 years ago.

Today, everyone wants something for nothing, or worse, something and lets get the other guy to pay for it. I have a hard time imagining people in the US giving up their luxuries...without some kind of massive social breakdown.

[FIREWALL]

Old Saying...

I'd rather owe it to ya, Than beat ya out of it. :DL

[Schroeder]

Buy more F22s.;)

Now in all seriousness the way pretty much the entire western world is making debts left and right is scary. In the end it has to lead to a collapse. A normal man can only spend as much money as he has. If he has to borrow money to finance his every day spendings it is often the first step down the ladder to bankruptcy. The same is true for countries but here it all takes much longer. So in the end we all will have to take a big cut. It is just that the politicians don't dare to say it and are continuing to borrow money hoping that the next generation might be able to pay it all back.:dead:

[SteamWake]

Isnt this kind of behaviour what lead to the fall of the soviet union? :06:

[FIREWALL]

Isnt this kind of behaviour what lead to the fall of the soviet union? :06:

Doe's anyone consider them a good credit risk ? :rotfl:

[Platapus]

What I find disturbing is whom holds all this debt for us. For the most part it is China :o

http://www.mikenew.com/un-debt.html


While China is the biggest single foreign holder of US Treasury Bonds at $801B China does not hold anywhere near "most" of our US Treasury Bond debt.

In fact, China has only been the largest holder of US Treasury Bonds since Sep 08, not quite a year. Before that Japan was the largest foreign holder of US Treasury Bonds and is still a very strong second at $667B.

Total foreign holding in US Treasury Bonds is $3293B.

Making China holding just shy of 25% of our foreign holdings of US Treasury Bonds.

http://www.treas.gov/tic/mfh.txt

[Zachstar]

Yes we will be able to pay it back. With fusion the value of the economy grows greatly and because the population wont grow by leaps and bounds within a 10-20 years compared to that growth. More incoming business taxes will not have to be spent on social services and also there will be great pressure from Business to repay the debt to increase the value of the dollar.

Without fusion or an equivalent new energy source the answer is no. Period

[Thomen]

Yes we will be able to pay it back. With fusion the value of the economy grows greatly and because the population wont grow by leaps and bounds within a 10-20 years compared to that growth. More incoming business taxes will not have to be spent on social services and also there will be great pressure from Business to repay the debt to increase the value of the dollar.

Without fusion or an equivalent new energy source the answer is no. Period

With all due respect, don't expect to see Fusion enegry anytime soon. A feasible, cheap and reliable design may be implemented one or two generations down the road. If we are lucky.

[FIREWALL]

Let's pay it all off with all those Clinton $3 bills gathering dust.:haha: :rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

[Letum]

Debt doesn't need to be paid off so long as everyone believes that each
individual debtor could, in theory, be paid off.

An IOU note is as good as any other form of currency.

If that belief was lost then this financial crisis would look like the smallest
of trifling trifles.

It is unthinkable that the USA's ability in theory to pay back creditors
would be seriously questioned. After all, the US, like most countries,
has been in debt since the dawn of modern banking.

[FIREWALL]

And called the Mightiest Nation in the World.

When the USA's tummy is upset, the rest of the worlds bowels loosen.:haha:

FREEDOM is what we live by. 200+ yrs and a World Power that has helped other Nations be Free just so they can critisize us.

If Japan hadn't attacked Pearl Harbor I would be bilingual.

English\German.

The USofA will not be the Craphole your Masters tell you is tall cotton.

Peddle your socialist fish somewhere else.

[Onkel Neal]

Is it time for your medicine or what? :o

[FIREWALL]

At least I have the balls to stand up for my country on this Website regardless of donations or 6.5% revenue.

I'll stand by my earlier post not, to insult anyone but to stand by my beliefs.

I didn't call anyone a dirty word or break a SS rule.

Just gave my opinion.

And I get a trash comeback from the ownerof this website.

I hope your proud of yourself Neal and got a chuckle dissing a SubSim supporter.

You'ii just have to excuse me for standing up for my country. :DL

[Onkel Neal]

Ok, what do donations or 6.5% revenue have to do with anything?

And weren't we just joking in another thread...where you said I was nuts? :hmmm: You can dish it out.... ;)

[Sea Demon]

Yes we will be able to pay it back. With fusion the value of the economy grows greatly and because the population wont grow by leaps and bounds within a 10-20 years compared to that growth. More incoming business taxes will not have to be spent on social services and also there will be great pressure from Business to repay the debt to increase the value of the dollarWithout fusion or an equivalent new energy source the answer is no. PeriodWith respect Zach, if you're looking to advances in nuclear fusion or any other large scale energy projects to fuel our giant economy, you voted for the wrong people. Democrats continuously block any efforts to propagate those technologies, while feverishly and naively pushing nothing but wind and solar. In addition, we still also need oil. Lots of it. And we have alot to power our economy while finding other long term tangible solutions like more HTGR's and such. Democrats and their enviro-lobbyists block all of this.Your vision here is total pie in the sky.....especially coming from such an avid democrat voter. Your people will never give you what you envision here. Not in a million years. It is actually Republicans who push advances in nuclear and other realistic means of power.

[Zachstar]

Nice try but polywell fusion got a huge boost of funding under Obama compared to Bush.

And solar can be a serious energy source IF more money flowed into research instead of feel good large projects.

Edit: BTW I can hardly believe you are touting oil here. Our dependence on foreign sources can not be slowed by domestic projects that take over a decade to online. And even then we will never generate enough to fuel the current economy much less grow it. Coal is a possibility but the "clean coal" movement is full of so much lies and misinfo that I refuse to support it. And seeing that they are running to repukes instead of investing in more projects to clean and make it even better. (I will fully admit tho that burning coal and transporting it to an electric motor is many time cleaner than burning gas) that is unlikely to change.

Fusion is going along well actually. ITER is not but ITER is a political POS that is being built to make jobs and feel good speeches instead of the efforts surrounding the polywell and others such as focus fusion.

[Zachstar]

At least I have the balls to stand up for my country on this Website regardless of donations or 6.5% revenue.

I'll stand by my earlier post not, to insult anyone but to stand by my beliefs.

I didn't call anyone a dirty word or break a SS rule.

Just gave my opinion.

And I get a trash comeback from the ownerof this website.

I hope your proud of yourself Neal and got a chuckle dissing a SubSim supporter.

You'ii just have to excuse me for standing up for my country. :DL

Do you honestly think donating to subsim gives you any kind of upper hand or class here?

What if a hardline commie makes a donation? Or a Nazi?

[Sea Demon]

Nice try but polywell fusion got a huge boost of funding under Obama compared to Bush.

And solar can be a serious energy source IF more money flowed into research instead of feel good large projects.

Yes, polywell fusion research did get some funding recently. And that's good. But how about putting money into things we can start immediately. Like funding actual production of new power plants for current generation of energy. That hasn't seen a dime. And that's what we need. We could immediately begin power production using light water reactors and HTGR's for energy needs now. I'm happy for the research into polywell fusion, but will the environmentalists who fund democrats actually impede it's usage when ready? I tend to think so. Especially as history is a judge. And solar can be a good supplemental source of energy, but it's not going to power the full needs of our economy at current technology.

And yes, whether you like it or not, we still need oil. And we would have much more domestic inflow had we started ten years ago when they were using the same old argument you used above. The lesson....don't listen to liberals regarding energy policy. That turned out to be "delay, deny, then lay the blame ten years later".

I do like your thinking regarding fusion technology, but I have no confidence that your people will truly follow up on it. Even the funding done regarding this technology is in the millions. Not the billions it should be. As such, I'm happy Obama has looked at this as an option. But still the response is rather lackluster. The point is, Republicans want to put energy systems we need online now while researching alternatives. Although I do also wish they would also emphasize more research as well. Democrats aren't giving us anything in terms of energy projects that are needed now. Realistic ones that is.


P.S. After reading a little more into Polywell research, it appears EMC2 gives 2020 as the earliest we would be able to see any operational status. Not counting delays or overruns. Research is important into this area for sure. But in the meantime, we have to generate power now. This is why supporting democrats gives us no bang for the buck.

[Zachstar]

I am not going to turn this into a pub versus dem argument. Its pointless. You know where you stand and I know where I stand and the 2010 elections are not going to be very exciting either.

I am 100 percent against the construction of new fission reactors because of cost. And I mean cost because I fully understand that they are the safest and most powerful source of energy. But the money given to them by the government is extreme. No focus on tech to keep the current ones running better. Because even if I did support them nobody wants them in their backyard anymore and if THEY did it wont be in a location good for transportation of the power.

EMC2 is completely in its shell right now and anything you see on their website needs to be taken with a grain of salt. We wont know the real plans until next year. However, Yes 2020 is about the fastest we can hope they will get one of these online in. Yet that isn't long away and there is plenty of tech coming out of solar developments in the meantime to help ease the pressure slightly.

Yet in the long term it is the best option because paying back this debt is not going to be short term regardless if its pub or dem.

Pubs wont reduce the military budget by over 50 percent
Dems wont cut 100 percent of the social programs

So its fusion or no payback because of a little thing I like to call political reality.

[SteamWake]

Nice try but polywell fusion got a huge boost of funding under Obama compared to Bush.

And solar can be a serious energy source IF more money flowed into research instead of feel good large projects.

Funding research is one thing getting them built is quite another.

The US has been quite restrictive when it comes to building things like reactors. Or any kind of energy plant for that matter.

Hell we cant even draw off wells that are already tapped in the Gulf for cryin out loud.

So were hamstrung by... well ourselves.

Look what happened to the one person whom tried to take initative on alternative energy Tboon Pickens. Now hes stuck with a bunch of wind tubines and no where to put them because the costs of transmission lines are prohibitive what with all the regulations and enviromental restrictions involved not to mention the union labor that would be required.

Now that tax revenues are a record low these research grants will dry up as well.

Oh and solar... it aint there yet not on large scale. About the only real efficent use for solar right now is for hot water and small 'storage' systems. Im in the industry I have first hand knowledge. :yep:

[Zachstar]

Then why are you not mentioning the best use for photovoltaic panels? Reduction of grid use during peak AC use?

Solar panels are at their best when the sun in raging above. In the south it can be cloudy and hot at the same time but MANY areas in the west and north can seriously benefit from being able to just reduce the AC load on the grid per home by 50 percent.

I am against any kind of grand. "Catch and store" Solar programs. Batteries suck and will continue to suck until ultracapacitors become cheap and available enough for serious home use rather than cars and industry. Solar energy only needs to "Reduce" home electrical use to have a serious effect because during the night the utilities are just begging to move power around. Sometimes its better to send the power halfway across the nation at night!

[Zachstar]

A polywell reactor is FAR FAR different from any kind of traditional fission or fusion reactor.

Early versions will produce vast amounts of neutrons and will require a boiler system but quickly afterwards Pb11 use will mean almost no neutrons and produces electrical power directly.

The fundie anti-nukes (The ones that are against it because they think they are unsafe) will try like they always do but they have nothing to stand on to defeat it.

[Buddahaid]

And called the Mightiest Nation in the World.

When the USA's tummy is upset, the rest of the worlds bowels loosen.:haha:

FREEDOM is what we live by. 200+ yrs and a World Power that has helped other Nations be Free just so they can critisize us.

If Japan hadn't attacked Pearl Harbor I would be bilingual.

English\German.

The USofA will not be the Craphole your Masters tell you is tall cotton.

Peddle your socialist fish somewhere else.

What was that? I can't even connect it with the previous posts! Firewall I agree that Europe owes the US a debt for greatly helping to defeat Hitler. The actual debt was forgiven. The US also owes Britain and France a debt for the two years of fighting Hitler without direct US involvement. As far as the US becoming a craphole, if it does it's only our fault for building a society that has become used to living beyond it's means on credit debt, and for disassociating our monetary system from the gold standard. In the thirty's and forties, people didn't have credit cards and run up massive debt to live lives they couldn't afford. The standard of living for most was much lower and simpler. We have stepped out on a thin ledge of shaky credit and need to crawl back onto something more solid and realistic. Sorry if you don't like that but what we've been doing is unsustainable.

Buddahaid

[SUBMAN1]

No. We are 64 Trillion in debt (outstanding obligations) and rising.

Our country is bankrupt with a capitol B. Our way of living is at an end. Some of us will survive.

-S

[Zachstar]

Then log off the computer and go ready Ayn Rand for the thousandth time. Doom and gloom is silly here.

[SteamWake]

MANY areas in the west and north can seriously benefit from being able to just reduce the AC load on the grid per home by 50 percent.!

If you covered your entire roof, back yard, front yard, and your pets with solar voltaic cells. Turned your airconditioner off, unplugged your refrigerator, throw away your clothes dryer and give up hot water you might come close to your 'estimate'.

But that inital investment to be able to accomplish such a thing is well.. alot.

No Solar voltaic is not at that kind of efficacy yet.

I hear a lot of fanciful futuristic arguments. Fission, Solar Power, and so on. I believve if it could be done it would be done.... and for profit.

[Thomen]

Then why are you not mentioning the best use for photovoltaic panels? Reduction of grid use during peak AC use?


And who is goingto pay for the panels, the installation and all that other stuff that is needed? Those unfortunately do not come for free. I would love to reduce my power bill with cells, but rightnow, the incentivce is not very good considering how long it takes til they basically paid for themselves.

[geetrue]

Perhaps not this adminstration, but at some point in time, in a boardroom setting, the subject will come up;

"What would it cost to go to war with China versus say paying them what we owe them?" :hmmm:

[Zachstar]

If you covered your entire roof, back yard, front yard, and your pets with solar voltaic cells. Turned your airconditioner off, unplugged your refrigerator, throw away your clothes dryer and give up hot water you might come close to your 'estimate'.

But that inital investment to be able to accomplish such a thing is well.. alot.

No Solar voltaic is not at that kind of efficacy yet.

I hear a lot of fanciful futuristic arguments. Fission, Solar Power, and so on. I believve if it could be done it would be done.... and for profit.

What are you talking about? AC=Air conditioner.. You don't need THAT many cells to cut half of its use. Especially a modern one.

[Zachstar]

And who is goingto pay for the panels, the installation and all that other stuff that is needed? Those unfortunately do not come for free. I would love to reduce my power bill with cells, but rightnow, the incentivce is not very good considering how long it takes til they basically paid for themselves.

That will have to come with time. Right now the tech that is being made with is extremely expensive. The upcoming tech has solar tech being printed rather than traditional methods.

As for paying for them. Even for traditional panels many say if there is a substantial tax deduction or other benefit for getting them they will. Also note what I said earlier about home cooling. That is the time the grid is taxed the most and when companies have to pay for unpretty amounts from power. They will be very happy to help make things even sweeter for a mass rollout because it will mean less stress for them during peak hours.

Because you just set these things to get max use during peak hours and tied through a box into the AC rather than storage. They will be cheap to install.


Now is it a end all solution? Heck no because solar is not going to provide the power needed for massive growth. Yet it is a good investment that has results soon rather than a decade later with other forms of energy.

[SteamWake]

What are you talking about? AC=Air conditioner.. You don't need THAT many cells to cut half of its use. Especially a modern one.

My friend I work in this industry. In fact I am a professional.

I know how much current an air conditioner can draw, even a one with an extremly high seer.

Your solar cell sysem might be enough to run that AC through the night depending on where you live. But thats about it. Maybe a few light bulbs too in fact. Dont even think about roasting a chicken in a electric range that would sap the batterys before the chicken was done.

But thats about it.

Not to mention the banks of batteries and inverter system. Not cheap. The heavy metals involved is enough to give a tree hugger a cold sweat.

Im telling you solar to electric is just not there yet.

I see lots of 'cute' applications for solar electric systems. Lighted bus stops. School crossing signs etc. Ive even seen billboards with solar powered lighting systems (they quite often fail in the first year). Given the right conditions these novelties work quite well.

We installed a lighted pedestrian crossing system at a local campus here. Solar powered, led lamps for the 'warning' lights.

It failed miserabaly. Just too much traffic day and night the system could not keep up. We ended up running a circuit to a battery charger.

No solar to electric on a commercial scale is pie in the sky at this time.

[bookworm_020]

Maybe they would settle for a cents in the dollar repayment????:hmmm:

[SteamWake]

Maybe they would settle for a cents in the dollar repayment????:hmmm:

Perhaps shaving a small portion of your bill is possible but the up front costs are prohibitave. Furthermore there are ongoing costs. Those batterys arent cheap and they dont last forever. One good lightining strike can put you back to square one also. Yes there are ways to guard against that as well but more costs and there not gaurenteed, lightning finds a way sometimes.

If you really wish to save money / energy with solar again water heating is the best route at this time. Its passive, its reletively inexpensive, it works, and very rarely fails which is more than can be said about photo voltaic.

There are also systems that can use some of this heated water pumped through tubing in your floor for a nice space warming system. But that has to be designed from the ground up.

Forget trying to run an electric strip heat on a pv system... out of the question.

[August]

Perhaps shaving a small portion of your bill is possible but the up front costs are prohibitave. Furthermore there are ongoing costs. Those batterys arent cheap and they dont last forever. One good lightining strike can put you back to square one also. Yes there are ways to guard against that as well but more costs and there not gaurenteed, lightning finds a way sometimes.

If you really wish to save money / energy with solar again water heating is the best route at this time. Its passive, its reletively inexpensive, it works, and very rarely fails which is more than can be said about photo voltaic.

There are also systems that can use some of this heated water pumped through tubing in your floor for a nice space warming system. But that has to be designed from the ground up.

Forget trying to run an electric strip heat on a pv system... out of the question.

Still when I look at the progress that solar power has made in the past 30 years i'm encouraged about the future.

The wife and I hope to use solar in the retirement home we'll be building 20 years from now.

[SteamWake]

Still when I look at the progress that solar power has made in the past 30 years i'm encouraged about the future.

The wife and I hope to use solar in the retirement home we'll be building 20 years from now.

Indeed some signifigant advances have been made but the two main stumbling blocks as of right now are the pv cells themselves just dont produce enough current and the storage systems. Who knows maybe someone will have a break through tommorow.

In the meantime when you get ready to plan that home I know a good engineer ;)

[SUBMAN1]

I'd opt more for wind power. Seems the be the only thing you can install that actually generates a decent clip, but only on a windy day.

Solar - It will be a while before that is any use other than cutting down on your bill. I keep seeing all these breakthroughs on it, except when it comes down to manufacturing these breakthroughs. It can't be done cheaply enough yet to make it into your home.

-S

[Letum]

As it is, photo voltics are expensive, inefficant, degrade in power output
After a few years and need replacing after ~20 years.

Further more, there production is causing serious environmental problems. esp. in China.

Not a way to make or save money.
Great for calculators or street signs.

[CastleBravo]

The thing that is missed is how this kind of spending drives down the economies of all nations. When the US consumer is paying for debt little disposable income is available to buy products and services from other nations, which in turn disrupts their economies. Its a pernicious circle.

[August]

In the meantime when you get ready to plan that home I know a good engineer ;)

Engineer, you mean like the guy who drives the train?


:D Sorry I can never pass up that joke.

Speaking of engineering. If I were to set up a solar battery powered system up at our cabin in Maine what would i need?

I'm figuring powering 4ea 75 watt bulbs (mostly during night time hours) for 3-5 days. Solar panel efficiency isn't a big issue since we usually go 30 days between visits

[SteamWake]

Engineer, you mean like the guy who drives the train?


:D Sorry I can never pass up that joke.

Speaking of engineering. If I were to set up a solar battery powered system up at our cabin in Maine what would i need?

I'm figuring powering 4ea 75 watt bulbs (mostly during night time hours) for 3-5 days. Solar panel efficiency isn't a big issue since we usually go 30 days between visits

Dont really want to derail the thread any further so Ill pm you some links. For just a few lights (consider using compact fluorescents btw) you wont need all that much.

[Skybird]

Can the United States pay the money back?

Judging from the media coverage as well as past debates in this forum, the more interesting question is who in the US would even wish to do so. Living on tick seems to be taken as a God-given right by the US.

In the past 500 years, the vast majority of European powers had to reboot at one time or the other, due to total state bancruptcy that was the consequence of spending more than one could afford, and especially excessive military spending.

What is strange is that America could learn from these examples - but doesn't.

But with that strange habit it is not alone. Others repeat the very same economical and financial mistakes of the past as well. But no other causes so high waves by doing so.

They say there is something called evolution. more and more often, when looking at man's history, I doubt that. It always seems to be the same old stories that meanwhile got forgotten - and thus get repeated while assuming they are new.