Place your bets: Stock market bottom (Thread from 2009)

[Stormin Norman]

Where do you think the lowest point of the market will be before it begins to climb back up?

[bookworm_020]

Judging by the number of big institutions still going to the wall, or on the verge, it looks like it will get a lot worse before it gets better!:cry:

[Onkel Neal]

Never let it be said, I'm not afraid to make my prediction. :03:

[AVGWarhawk]

I think it is as low as it will go. In short and you will not hear it from Washington, it has already crashed. If Washington would stop brewing gloom and doom the markets will at least be stable and start a slow climb up. You have seen in the past few weeks, if the Fed farts funny the market takes a dump. Optimism is the operative word here.

EDIT: Todays news shows GM as doubtful in surviving. Markets will react.

[SteamWake]

Kind of supprised the poll stops at 5300, Im thinking more like 3000.

Espically if Obama doesent get off the doom and gloom platform.

Traders are extremly wary of the stimulous bill and the numbers dont lie.

[Onkel Neal]

Yeah, the top value has already been renedered moot by today's collapse.

I'm just waiting to see where Skybird applies his predictive powers :hmmm:

[Zachstar]

6300 but I dont see it lowering under 6000 unless GE,GM, AIG and about 30 other companies fall.

Stock is too cheap to pass up now. Even tho people are worried the chance to make 3-6 times what you invest if a recovery happens makes for HUGE short term gain possibilities.

Small companies wont see much in new investments but GE for instance... That will see some serious buys.

Edit: BTW keep in mind it was the growth of the Internet that got the economy as high as it was. These days getting on the net is easy in comparison. And the networks are allowing for insanely easy communication. So in reality the economy is MUCH stronger than the media likes to say it is.

[Aramike]

Going down...

You know what could fix the problem? Privatizing Social Security. That massive influx of cash would get investors on board so fast, the market would be back over 10K within a week! And Social Security wouldn't be broke any longer...

You heard it here first, folks.

[Zachstar]

And last.. Seniors do not want it and I do not want it. Its done gone dead poof third rail or however you like to put it.

[AVGWarhawk]

Going down...

You know what could fix the problem? Privatizing Social Security. That massive influx of cash would get investors on board so fast, the market would be back over 10K within a week! And Social Security wouldn't be broke any longer...

You heard it here first, folks.

Need to go back to stuffing cash in the old mattress:88) No more company pensions plans out there. We are told to invest in 401K for your retirement. This is a risk as you can see. I have lost over half of my investments. Uncle Sam said it would be a great idea. You are not taxed on it. Not until you are old and gray making the withdrawal. To old and gray to have enough energy to storm Capital Hill after you are taxed to death on your withdrawal that is:doh: Social Security will be zero by my retirement.

So today we see GM burp and utter the word bankruptcy....markets nose dive. What happened to the billions we gave GM a month ago?:06: Should have closed up shop then instead of prolonging the agony.

[SteamWake]

6300 but I dont see it lowering under 6000 unless GE,GM, AIG and about 30 other companies fall.

Serious doubt that GM can 'survive'

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,505130,00.html

[AVGWarhawk]

6300 but I dont see it lowering under 6000 unless GE,GM, AIG and about 30 other companies fall.

Serious doubt that GM can 'survive'

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,505130,00.html


The writing on the wall could be read 8 weeks ago concerning GM. Good news though, Walmart sales are up 5%. :88) China should be happy with that news!

[Tchocky]

The DJIA isn't the best predictor or prognostic indicator.

It's a snapshot of how a market is feeling at a very specific date and time. Stock markets are traditionally more panicky and flappable than the rest of the economy.

[AVGWarhawk]

The DJIA isn't the best predictor or prognostic indicator.

It's a snapshot of how a market is feeling at a very specific date and time. Stock markets are traditionally more panicky and flappable than the rest of the economy.

True but look at the series of snap shots.....trending downward for quite sometime now. Looking at the series of snap shots, it is a very good indication were the economy is and is heading.

[Aramike]

And last.. Seniors do not want it and I do not want it. Its done gone dead poof third rail or however you like to put it.Yeah, you're right. Why bother helping to fix the economy and build wealth when we can just put our future generations more deeply in debt. :doh:

Hmm, why don't you want it? Oh yeah, because Bush liked the idea. :damn:

[Zachstar]

Going down...

You know what could fix the problem? Privatizing Social Security. That massive influx of cash would get investors on board so fast, the market would be back over 10K within a week! And Social Security wouldn't be broke any longer...

You heard it here first, folks.
Need to go back to stuffing cash in the old mattress:88) No more company pensions plans out there. We are told to invest in 401K for your retirement. This is a risk as you can see. I have lost over half of my investments. Uncle Sam said it would be a great idea. You are not taxed on it. Not until you are old and gray making the withdrawal. To old and gray to have enough energy to storm Capital Hill after you are taxed to death on your withdrawal that is:doh: Social Security will be zero by my retirement.

So today we see GM burp and utter the word bankruptcy....markets nose dive. What happened to the billions we gave GM a month ago?:06: Should have closed up shop then instead of prolonging the agony.

A few points on this.

About the mattress comment. Yes the FDIC will never be able to pay everyone back but people using it to hold on a few thousand is safe. You WILL be paid back. Your money is doing far better for the economy in the bank than hidden under the bed.

I am sorry about your investments but HOLD do NOT feel tempted to sell. These idiots selling today are just throwing away hard earned money. The economy WILL recover. It will be slow but you seem coherent enough that you wont be TOO old by the time it happens :P

Yes GM needs to be let go. But before we let go GM we need to let go AIG or you likely WILL have jobless people storming the capital. many are already upset that AIG is getting 30 billion more with the same lame ass excuses and if it means the loss of all those jobs at GM to do it... Not good...

[AVGWarhawk]

Going down...

You know what could fix the problem? Privatizing Social Security. That massive influx of cash would get investors on board so fast, the market would be back over 10K within a week! And Social Security wouldn't be broke any longer...

You heard it here first, folks.
Need to go back to stuffing cash in the old mattress:88) No more company pensions plans out there. We are told to invest in 401K for your retirement. This is a risk as you can see. I have lost over half of my investments. Uncle Sam said it would be a great idea. You are not taxed on it. Not until you are old and gray making the withdrawal. To old and gray to have enough energy to storm Capital Hill after you are taxed to death on your withdrawal that is:doh: Social Security will be zero by my retirement.

So today we see GM burp and utter the word bankruptcy....markets nose dive. What happened to the billions we gave GM a month ago?:06: Should have closed up shop then instead of prolonging the agony.

A few points on this.

About the mattress comment. Yes the FDIC will never be able to pay everyone back but people using it to hold on a few thousand is safe. You WILL be paid back. Your money is doing far better for the economy in the bank than hidden under the bed.

I am sorry about your investments but HOLD do NOT feel tempted to sell. These idiots selling today are just throwing away hard earned money. The economy WILL recover. It will be slow but you seem coherent enough that you wont be TOO old by the time it happens :P

Yes GM needs to be let go. But before we let go GM we need to let go AIG or you likely WILL have jobless people storming the capital. many are already upset that AIG is getting 30 billion more with the same lame ass excuses and if it means the loss of all those jobs at GM to do it... Not good...

I have no issue with banks and FDIC. Stuffing the money in a mattress instead of the stock market. This is a stock market thread, no:06:

Hold back on the stock market:06: I just sent $2950.00 to my 401K plan last week. Great West handles my investments. Fortunate for me I have non-aggressive stocks so losses would have been worse. I have faith the markets will rebound. Always has:03: So, I give them more money to buy up when cheap:D

Yep, GM can go away. Something better will take it's place. Law of the jungle:03:

[geetrue]

I dont know how low the stock market will go, but I do know it will bounce back only to fall again. Then rise again and then fall again, only to rise again and then fall again till it looks like the back of a dragon.

Here is a prophecy from August 2008 ... looks like she is right so far and now it is March 2009: Stock market prophecy August 2008 (http://endtimespropheticwords.wordpress.com/2008/08/03/a-vision-re-the-american-economy-the-dow-jones-index/)


Today, upon awaking, I felt God whisper to me “The Dow”, and saw something significantly detrimental happen to it. Though I do not that much about economics at all, I know enough to know the Dow Jones is in some way a reflection of the financial health of the USA nation and is tied in with the stock market, though I do not understand the mechanisms at all. [See comments in the section below where this is explained}
Anyway, simply, I saw this Dow Jones go in a very negative manner, while retail prices (for what I thought was for every day consumer items like food, not just for gas etc) really went up considerably, at the same time as the Dow went down, so it was like two complete opposites I saw.
And I saw and it was like a large hand was upon the line of the Dow Jones graph, pushing the lines down considerably for what seemed a persistant time period (like not just one dip that would quickly correct itself).


P.S. Here's another poll on low will it go started monday on Fox news: How far will it go? (http://www.myfoxatlanta.com/dpp/news/nat_dpg_How_Far_Will_The_Dow_Fall2222935) (40% voted below 5,000)

This is a world problem and it is just a seed thought that a certain charismactic person will rise up to try and solve it, but that person has yet to prove himself.

Where does all of that money go anyway? You know the money that is not being invested in the stock market ... piggy banks, off shore banks, pillow banks, bail out banks, where does it all go?

[AVGWarhawk]

Where does all of that money go anyway? You know the money that is not being invested in the stock market ... piggy banks, off shore banks, pillow banks, bail out banks, where does it all go?



As far as the money you are talking about..bail out money. The banks purchased other banks on the first go around. Nobody was watching them. They used this money to say afloat and pay workers. Some went to nice get away trips. Some went to the investors. Some just disappears.

[geetrue]

That's good warhawk ... I needed that, but I was thinking more along the lines of the rich investor selling as soon as the stock takes a dip thinking that he can always purchase the stock at a lower price and recoup his investment.

Day traders have to work within a fraction of a dollar to make a profit ...

So with that in mind where do investors put there money when it is this bad?

I'm a old craps player ... when the table is cold you know it and walk away :yep:

[AVGWarhawk]

That's good warhawk ... I needed that, but I was thinking more along the lines of the rich investor selling as soon as the stock takes a dip thinking that he can always purchase the stock at a lower price and recoup his investment.

Day traders have to work within a fraction of a dollar to make a profit ...

So with that in mind where do investors put there money when it is this bad?

I'm a old craps player ... when the table is cold you know it and walk away :yep:


A lot do sell their investments if it dips. They might have lost their socks today but tomorrow it could be their shirts they lost. If he purchased at $2.00 today the company is to use that money to grow thus increasing the stock value. So, say the $2.00 stock today is $3.00 next month to purchase. The investor has made a $1.00+ his original $2.00 if he sells this stock after the month the company does well. If the company is faultering and the stock could be $1.00 to purchase that one month later after investing. The investor is now down $1.00 from the original $2.00 to purchase the stock. Some will pull out and figure at least I only lost half of my original two bucks. Some leave it knowing stocks do go up in most instances and during this time the stock is now only $1.00 the investor will purchase at this price. With any luck his $1.00 purchase will be $2.00 next month. He has doubled his $1.00! So yes, you can get more for less and take the risk of it dropping like a rock or growing.

Why do they put money in when it dips...simple, you can get more for your $1.00. You take the risk that the company and stock will grow from this figure. One can do quite well. At this point, the market is so unstable even the hardcore investors are leery of doing this. Investor confidence is going right down with the market.

Sure, I have lost but I will not fold up camp on my 401K. Early withdrawal is taxed somewhere in the neighborhood of 30%. No thanks. I think I lose it on my own. Washington is not getting 30% on my early withdrawal. I sit and wait. I ask Great West (my plan carrier) to look at foreign investments. I have a few but I think I will do better on foreign investing at this point. Nothing here is doing very well at all. Stocks will go up, always have. I think we are at the bottom and will float here a while. So, I pick up a few more on the 401K and wait until it picks up again. I sure don't look at my 401K everyday. That would only turn me old and gray before my time. I just look at my monthly statements.

It is all risk taking but can pay off. For example, my mom purchased $2000.00 worth of MetroMedia Channel 5. (years ago). This outfit eventually became FOX 5 or FOX as we know it today. The stock went ballistic and to purchased it quadrupled. She finally sold them and made $35,000.00 from the original $2000.00. She is a smart cookie. She turned around and purchased a beach house for $35,000.00 she made on the market. Sold it 5 years later for $140,000.00. Needless to say, this is just one of her many ventures in the market. Believe it or not, she was house mom. Watched the news and just chosen well in the market. She lives quite comfortably in her retirement.

[UnderseaLcpl]

My vote is for below 5300. As I write this, the DOW is at about 6600. Given the results of previous state intervention programs, and the fact that this latest stimulus package is the largest one yet, I think that such a level is very reachable.

The stimulus has yet to begin affecting the market, but when it does, the results will be the same as every other major economic spending initiative. The currency will inflate, and the measures taken to increase economic activity will fail, and we'll have stagflation.

Even when we do eventually recover, we'll have a leeching Federal Government that is almost a third larger than it was previously, and a seriously devalued currency, and the next crisis won't be long in coming.

[Rockstar]

Below 5300. Nobody has any confidence in the future or government role in economy. Like rats fleeing a sinking ship. When confidence is restored only then I think will see it bottom out. But CRISIS CATASTROPHY DISPAIR are the watchwords from our leader.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=washingtonstory&sid=aGJ_.gr_awkY


Everyone will be happy to know however I did use my credit card to purchase a new 6hp Mercury outboard for my 10 foot inflatable. That will jump start the economy right :yeah: . Spend spend spend.

[Onkel Neal]

Whoo hoo!

Dow jumps almost 500 points on bank plan (http://money.cnn.com/2009/03/23/markets/markets_newyork/index.htm?postversion=2009032312)

Stocks surged today, recharging the rally after the Treasury's plan to buy up billions in bad bank assets and a better-than-expected existing home sales report raised hopes that the economy is stabilizing. The Dow Jones industrial average gained 497 points, or 6.8 percent, according to early tallies, posting its biggest one-day point gain since November.


Let's hope this is the beginning of the end of the recession (I know, I KNOW, too early to tell...but not too early to hope;) )

Hopefully investors will begin to see that the time for buying back into the market is not going to get any better.

[geetrue]

I use to play an online stock market investment game where they give you one million dollars of pretend money to invest. I did okay around $25,000 a month in profits and then the game got to take up too much real time so I quit right before the bubble burst back in 2000, but I noticed then and since then that April around tax time is a bad time to invest.

The market goes up and down then for reasons I can only guess is due to profit taking to pay their taxes ...

So be careful in April :yep:

[Onkel Neal]

Nice, the market is over 8000 now. May not close there but nice to see it easing back up.

[SteamWake]

Nice, the market is over 8000 now. May not close there but nice to see it easing back up.

Cross your fingers, Obama has a press conference in an hour or two.

Every time he opens his yap the market tanks :06:

[Onkel Neal]

Still over 8000, gained 214 to 8427 :woot:

[Zachstar]

Cross your fingers, Obama has a press conference in an hour or two.

Every time he opens his yap the market tanks :06:

Guess you got proven wrong today.

[Onkel Neal]

But Obama was quiet today.

[AVGWarhawk]

Did he say something today? I do not know. I was at the Annapolis Naval Academy. It was quiet there also.

[UnderseaLcpl]

Heh...heh...heh...

No elation from me with the latest stock surge. Wise investors are simply fleeing the still-weakening dollar, and a GDP contraction that is now exceeding forecasts, by taking high-risk investments and hoping to win the inflation race.
They'll run for a while yet, but eventually they will have to latch on to what seems to be the most buoyant currency.

If we're lucky, we might see a decent "fool's rally" before the stimulus (and attendant monopoly money) kicks in and shoots the market and the currency to hell.

[Onkel Neal]

Say what?? :06: I didn't understand any of that....

[bookworm_020]

Some positive news from Australia! Unemployment is down!!:D

http://business.smh.com.au/business/surprise-jobs-boost-20090507-avyz.html

[August]

Say what?? :06: I didn't understand any of that....

I think it means we're screwed.

[Onkel Neal]

hmmm...:hmmm:ok, I can see that now.

[UnderseaLcpl]

Say what?? :06: I didn't understand any of that....

Sorry for not being clear enough. I'll provide my opinion in case you are interested, but it is kind of verbose, because I'm going to start with the basics. I'm sure you're familiar with them but others might not be.

The Dow has jumped almost 2000 points in just a couple months, with multiple false-starts and reversals, indicating heavy trading activity and investment. Normally, that is a good thing. Well, heavy trading activity isn't always such a good thing because it indicates market instability but it cannot be denied that investors are buying into the market, for some reason.

The worrisome thing is that the GDP has continued to contract, even exceeding forecasted contraction, and unemployment has risen. Normally, you would think that investors would shy away from the market in such circumstances, and most are. Historically, that is what they do.
Also, the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar has continued to decline more rapidly than many other currencies.
So why would investors be buying? And why is the trading so erratic?
Quite simply, many of the major investors can see what's coming and are trying to make hay while the sun shines.

Here's how it works. The value of the U.S. dollar is based upon the strength of the GDP, more or less. Each dollar is basically worth its' proportionate value in terms of quantity of dollars to Gross Domestic Product, sort of. GDP isn't the best measure because of how it is calculated, some economists prefer to use Purchasing Power Parity, which is calculated differently but means the same thing as GDP/dollars. Neither is perfect, but both are relatively good approximations.
Anyways, that's a function of supply and demand. If production of dollars outpaces economic value, they become worth less, and vice-versa. Inflation and deflation, in short.
The other major factor is the ratio of U.S. money supply/economy to foreign money supply/economy, or more precisely, the rate at which these values change relative to each other. If I gave you one dollar for 100 yen, and the next day one dollar was worth only 50 yen, I would have made a wise trade, because I got twice as much yen for my money, and each yen is also more valuable now.

Currency traders, and other investors, take all this into account. After all, it does one no good to make $100 from a $50 investment in the stock market if the dollars you spent to make the investment are only worth a quarter next week. You'd have more dollars, but you'd have less money, or purchasing parity.

Right now, the USD is weakening because the GDP (upon which its' value is based) is getting smaller, whereas the number of dollars is still increasing. Dollars are becoming worth less, and there is no real prospect for recovery in the immediate future. That weakness is exacerbated by the fact that other nations and their investors know that, and so place less value on dollars.

Wise (read professional, mostly) investors, are placed in a quandry by this situation. The U.S. dollar is in a bad way right now because the gap between money supply and GDP is widening. The Dems have spiced up the situation by throwing another trillion dollars into the mix, some printed, some borrowed. Both contribute to inflation of the currency. Even worse, they are expanding the size of the government by a third (future borrowing printing to finance that), and their economic recovery measures are so worthless that they no longer even fall under the principle of Keynesian economics, which also sucks.

These investors are just waiting to see which economy and currency experience a resurgence first. Until then, they are just treading water by investing in anything that looks like it might become more valuable in the short term, in order to accumulate soon-to-be-less-valuable dollars, which they can then dump on people who think the U.S. economy will recover because Barack has a fireside chat or something, the profits from which they will use to buy into the economy they see as having the most potential for resurgence.

I used the term "fool's rally" in my last post. That is what I am talking about here. Dedicated investors base their investments upon macroeconomic trends, but they occasionally buy heavily to increase the price of a stock and encourage further purchase of the same, driving the price up. Then they sell it before people realize that there is no market for that company's products/services and it posts a quarterly loss.

Investors are also pulling out of low-risk, low-yield investments because they do not expect the yield form those investments to appreciate faster than inflation depreciates their money. They are refocusing that capital into high-risk ventures while they can, in hopes of making a net gain in the fashion described above.

Does that make more sense?

[Onkel Neal]

Yep, sure does, thanks. :salute:

[geetrue]

Here's advice for the average investor, but I still wonder where the big boys put their money when the table is cold:

http://moneyover55.about.com/od/howtoinvest/a/averageinvestor.htm (http://moneyover55.about.com/od/howtoinvest/a/averageinvestor.htm)




Study after study shows when the stock market goes up, people pour money into equity mutual funds, and when the market goes down, they pull money out. During bear markets, they pull even more money out. They continuously buy high and sell low. They chase trends, focused on what is happening right now. This irrational behavior causes their market returns to be substantially less than historical stock market returns.

What would cause investors to exhibit such poor judgment? After all, at a 12% return, their money would double every six years. Rather than chasing performance, an investor could simply have bought a single index fund, and earned significantly higher returns.

The problem is the human reaction, to good news or to bad news, is to overreact. This emotional reaction causes illogical investment decisions. This tendency to overreact can become even greater during times of personal uncertainty; near retirement, for example.

4 Truths To Follow To Increase Your Market Returns



When it comes to your investments, if you feel your emotions are getting the best of you, come back to the following truths:
Do nothing. A conscious and thoughtful decision to do nothing is still a form of action.
Your money is like soap. To quote Gene Fama Jr., a famed economist, “Your money is like soap. The more you handle it, the less you’ll have.”
Never sell equities in a down market. If your funds are allocated correctly (http://beginnersinvest.about.com/od/assetallocation1/a/aa102404.htm), you should never have a need to sell equities during a down market cycle. This holds true even if you are taking income. Just as you wouldn’t run out and put a for sale sign on your home when the housing market turns south, don’t be rash to sell equities when the stock market goes through a bear cycle. Wait it out.
Science works. It’s been academically proven that a disciplined approach to investing delivers higher market returns. Yeah, it’s boring; but it works.
Start following these truths now and become one of the few investors earning above average market returns.

[NEON DEON]

Invest in shotguns and canned goods:D

Dont forget to get a nice little bunker in Montana too.:woot:

[Onkel Neal]

So, looking back,

The DJIA hit a market low of 6,443.27 on March 6, 2009

And today, 16,267.

So, the poll choice 6300 was the closest.

Yes, this is an old thread, don't get the shakes. I find it interesting to look back and compare what we were saying about a current topic.

[GoldenRivet]

Happened not long after i opened a flight school - which relies pretty heavily on people parting with thousands of dollars in order to learn to fly - at a time when so few people were parting with anything of value.

The good part of the market crash is that it forced me to completely re-evaluate my career options, and landed me right in the middle of the highest paying job i've had yet, one in which i am frequently able to help people.

The bad part of the market crash is that i have been so busy with other things that gone from about 900 hours a year flying to about 30. :nope:

fun to look back :up:


sometimes

[STEED]

Stock markets are rigged!

[Wolferz]

Stock markets are rigged!

Ain't that the truth!
Recent revelations by a Royal Bank of Canada employee who deeply researched the phenomena of predatory stock brokers and their marriage to the big Wall Street banks and stock exchanges. He proved that the house always wins. Usually by nanoseconds. It's a technocratic screw job and whoever is closest to the servers gets the brass ring and all the money.:stare: I just read an article about it the other day and last night Jon Stewart had a guest author who has just published a book about it.
It's all legalized greed plain and simple. Insider trading is illegal unless it's done by a computer or our elected representatives. WTF?:hmmm:

[Mr Quatro]

Yeah, the top value has already been renedered moot by today's collapse.

I'm just waiting to see where Skybird applies his predictive powers :hmmm:

Skybird never did check in must of been an overcast day in Germany :woot:

[Wolferz]

Skybird never did check in must of been an overcast day in Germany :woot:

Solar panels need sun to charge the batteries.:O:

[STEED]

Ain't that the truth!
Recent revelations by a Royal Bank of Canada employee who deeply researched the phenomena of predatory stock brokers and their marriage to the big Wall Street banks and stock exchanges. He proved that the house always wins. Usually by nanoseconds. It's a technocratic screw job and whoever is closest to the servers gets the brass ring and all the money.:stare: I just read an article about it the other day and last night Jon Stewart had a guest author who has just published a book about it.
It's all legalized greed plain and simple. Insider trading is illegal unless it's done by a computer or our elected representatives. WTF?:hmmm:

HFT springs to mind.