View Full Version : American Auto will not survive this crisis..
Zachstar
12-06-08, 12:09 AM
Why? How could this be you ask?
Two words..
Electric Mini.....
Well you may be thinking. Oh jeez not this again. Just a small car with a battery and a motor.. Been there and done that...
Problem is this is not just any old clunker of a electric car.. It is a fully electric 150 mile in 2 hour charge BEAST!!
Expensive? Oh yes.. But it is LIGHTYEARS ahead of the Volt and it's high cost is due to the cost of batteries that are soon to rapidly fall due to about 20 different breakthroughs.
Take a look at this http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7760787.stm
As compared to the volt which MAY be out in 2010 after an extensive design process that will only result 40 miles per charge.
You want a reason why a bailout is useless? Here it is! Once the Mini-E, Zenn with EEstor, And various others hit the market. They will decimate the Volt's market as people want electric all the way to work and back and not for just 40 miles.
Short range, lack of space. I doubt it will be the slam dunk win you think it is...
Zachstar
12-06-08, 02:52 AM
Right now? No.. Gas is wayyy too cheap.
However, once recession (or depression) ends oil will skyrocket and this short term reprieve for the SUVs will end.
As for short range means little when the best thing the big 3 can come up with is a 40 mile electric.
Space? Minis are never known for space most use them for purposes that do not use the back seats. (Work drive, Sport, etc..) And also matters little when you got Zenn hot on the heels of it.
Toyota tore the big 3 a new one with a Hybrid that changed the face of high MPG driving. To this day they still do not have a hybrid that can compete. They shrugged off hybrid tech when they had a chance to take the lead and they are paying the price.
Its not only short range, it's the recharge time as well. Even a couple hour recharge means the vehicle is useless except for the short distance work commutes you mention.
I will agree that the Volt sounds worse by comparison but neither are going to be an adequate replacement for the internal combustion or hybrid vehicle.
Hylander_1314
12-06-08, 09:47 AM
As long as a hybrid or electric can pull my boat and fishing gear, and I can strap a deer to the hood from the hunt, I'd get one.
Onkel Neal
12-06-08, 10:11 AM
American Auto will not survive this crisis..
Wanna bet? ;)
Most people do not want an electric car. I sure don't.
SteamWake
12-06-08, 11:15 AM
A few other problems are overlooked as well as the short range and recharge time.
Inital investment costs are still to high compared to other small cars.
Speaking of small how the hell are you supposed to cram kids and all their crap into that little thing and maintain your sanity?
What about all the heavy metals used in the el cars construction. Many of which will not be recycled. What about that enviromental impact?
If you ever get in a crash god forbid those batteries ever get shorted out.... kabooom.
The life expectancy of such a car is about 100,000 miles under ideal conditoins. Once your past that the batteries will no longer take / hold a charge and the vehical is rendered useless. No use in trying to repair it... its shot, kaput, done.
Good luck on getting any kind of re-sale value out of it.
No Im sorry alot of things need to be considered and these cars while a decent stop gap are not the answer.
If the american public wanted these things then detriot would be stupid to not produce them. No Im afraid the american public by and large want their big honkin gas guzzeling vehicals. I see plenty of overgrown diesel dual axle trucks which typicall see no more work than hauling a sack of groceries home from the supermaket. Its their choice. Personally I find it stupid but it is their choice.
Its not supply and demand that puts the big 3 in jepordy. Its goverment regulation and the unions with their pensions that does.
Anyone remember when seat belts were an option? :hmm:
UnderseaLcpl
12-06-08, 11:21 AM
As long as no public funds go to developing/producing this junk, and no law ever says that I have to have a car like this.........whatever.
The American auto manufacturers already have one foot in the grave anyway and it is because they failed to produce something that people wanted to buy, so I guess it doesn't matter much, anyway. :dead:
GoldenRivet
12-06-08, 12:21 PM
The American auto industry needs to outgrow this muscle car mentality it has had since the 50s. i honestly cant understand (aside from a pure cash standpoint) why American cars like the trans am, mustang, and corvette are still even produced. These sports cars are produced for the purpose of (1) boosting buyer ego (2) burning fuel senselessly while their drivers hot rod all over town.
I don't see how an auto manufacturer can continue produce vehicles which boast anything less than 40-50 mpg and survive. My cobalt gets almost 30 miles per gallon and im still disappointed in its fuel economy.
given there are some parts of the USA where you just cant help it but have a "gas guzzler". Some people in Texas, Montana, Alaska and the like simply NEED trucks and four wheel vehicles to do their jobs out in the open country.
But its when i see people like this out driving around by themselves in a crew cab ford F-150 doing essentially nothing. There should be some sort of law... If you are driving around town in a big gas guzzling truck you had better be either (a) hauling a trailer with some sort of valuable cargo (b) hauling at least 2 other workers or (c) be able to prove beyond the shadow of doubt that you are en route to pick up the trailer or the workers.
But... You wont see a mini cooper hauling a cattle trailer to market so a few days later we can all have beef at the grocery store.
"All glory is fleeting"
"all things must end"
two quotes which come to mind when i think of the US Auto manufacturers.
I hate the fact that all those jobs will be lost, i really do.
I hope that the government see's fit to give all that "bailout money" to American based companies like "Aptera" who will be required to hire at least 75% of the displaced auto workers and they should be given a period of 5 years to mass produce an all electric, 4 seat vehicle which will sustain 70mph for a stretch of 250 miles... and it should be produced in numbers large enough to fill virtually every car dealership lot in the United States to 50% capacity.
theres your fossil fuel solution America.
these auto maker "dinosaurs" going extinct is probably a GOOD THING
SteamWake
12-06-08, 12:31 PM
why American cars like the trans am, mustang, and corvette are still even produced. These sports cars are produced for the purpose of (1) boosting buyer ego (2) burning fuel senselessly while their drivers hot rod all over town.
The answer is simple, its what the average consumer wants. Be it vanity, ego, or just thrills it is what they want. Simple as that.
If the gas prices rise again they will want something else. But in the meantime why wast money and resources on a product that very few want?
During the last fuel price spike you could buy those big SUV's for less than it cost to manufacture them. Now there back at their old prices again.
GoldenRivet
12-06-08, 12:55 PM
but is it not that sort of thinking that has brought us to this point?
"Oh gas prices are back down... everything is fine again!" :rock:
ummmmm.... anyone who ever said that cant see past the end of their nose!
gas prices will be up again... higher than ever, i promise you.
our strategy should not be reactionary in nature... we should be actively seeking a solution to our oil problem. not breathing a sigh of relief every time the prices relax a bit.
also... if you are going to quote me... quote the sentence fully...
"i honestly cant understand (aside from a pure cash standpoint) why American cars like the trans am, mustang, and corvette are still even produced.
But its when i see people like this out driving around by themselves in a crew cab ford F-150 doing essentially nothing. There should be some sort of law... If you are driving around town in a big gas guzzling truck you had better be either (a) hauling a trailer with some sort of valuable cargo (b) hauling at least 2 other workers or (c) be able to prove beyond the shadow of doubt that you are en route to pick up the trailer or the workers.
I've seen this line of reasoning a lot GoldenRivet so please don't feel that this is directed solely at you, but did you ever think that the person driving around alone in that F-150 might be doing so because the pickup is the only vehicle he owns, and he just might have other valid uses for it besides the one he's using it for at the moment?
I mean it'd be nice to have a stable of cars and trucks matched to our various transportation needs but the truth of the matter is that most of us can afford just one vehicle. It's a lot of money to put a 2nd car on the road. Cost of the vehicle, taxes, insurance, maintenance, parking, all of that is going to likely far outweigh the extra gas required to drive the truck all the time.
DeepIron
12-06-08, 01:02 PM
As an aside, US auto makers aren't the only ones feeling the pain... I saw on our local news channel last night that BMW sales fell 26% worldwide in the last quarter...
GoldenRivet
12-06-08, 01:10 PM
But its when i see people like this out driving around by themselves in a crew cab ford F-150 doing essentially nothing. There should be some sort of law... If you are driving around town in a big gas guzzling truck you had better be either (a) hauling a trailer with some sort of valuable cargo (b) hauling at least 2 other workers or (c) be able to prove beyond the shadow of doubt that you are en route to pick up the trailer or the workers.
I've seen this line of reasoning a lot GoldenRivet so please don't feel that this is directed solely at you, but did you ever think that the person driving around alone in that F-150 might be doing so because the pickup is the only vehicle he owns, and he just might have other valid uses for it besides the one he's using it for at the moment?
I mean it'd be nice to have a stable of cars and trucks matched to our various transportation needs but the truth of the matter is that most of us can afford just one vehicle. It's a lot of money to put a 2nd car on the road. Cost of the vehicle, taxes, insurance, maintenance, parking, all of that is going to likely far outweigh the extra gas required to drive the truck all the time.
you're absolutely right. and im in agreement with you, and i made room for that in the "stipulation" you quoted...
if the individual has a truck as his only vehicle but he needs it because of his work situation (hauling trailers, hauling stuff in the bed, towing equipment etc) thats great... no problem. i understand that he would obviously have to drive it in town for needs other than work at times.
however if average Joe blow works as a shoe salesman, and he buys the same exact truck "just because"... well there is something amiss there, he doesn't need it, and he could have purchased something a little less opulent like a Toyota Corolla.
if one person had done this... it would translate to the difference in using about 1250 gallons per year and 500 gallons per year.
if say... a mere 250,000 drivers in the entire country opted for a fuel efficient vehicle over a truck (assuming they didnt NEED the truck for work)... that would translate to nationwide fuel savings of approximately 187,500,000 gallons of gasoline... or about $370 Million worth.
i dont know about you... but i sure think that $370M would be doing a lot of good to the economy if spread elsewhere right about now.
GoldenRivet
12-06-08, 01:14 PM
sorry guys... im very opinionated about this issue... and i mean nothing personal by what i type here :up:
but almost every American wants
1. to break away from dependency on foreign oil
2. to take better care of the environment even if in some small way
3. to be able to drive as much as we want for as cheaply as we can
the only problem is that there is a clear solution which will lead to all three of these things... and almost nobody in America actually wants to be a part of it.
this confuses me.
:nope:
None taken GR. We all want the same thing. I'm just not in favor of creating laws to force us to do it. If someone wants a truck or a muscle car it should be their right to have one if they can afford it.
MothBalls
12-06-08, 01:37 PM
Why? How could this be you ask?
Two words..
Electric Mini.....
Those aren't the two words you're looking for. What we need used to be a commodity item available everywhere. Now it's almost extinct.
It's these two words;
common sense
Zachstar
12-06-08, 03:00 PM
American Auto will not survive this crisis..
Wanna bet? ;)
Most people do not want an electric car. I sure don't.
No problem. Enjoy 4 dollar gas once the economy gets back on track.
Zachstar
12-06-08, 03:03 PM
As an aside, US auto makers aren't the only ones feeling the pain... I saw on our local news channel last night that BMW sales fell 26% worldwide in the last quarter...
Difference being that BMW has a wide range of motor that will ensure sales continue.
Once gas skyrockets again their sales will skyrocket. (Or we will be in a depression for which I highly doubt any auto will survive)
MothBalls
12-06-08, 03:23 PM
It's not just the big three. I wonder if we'll bail them out?
Toyota Reports October Sales
http://www.toyota.com/about/news/corporate/2008/11/03-1-sales.html
November 3, 2008 - Torrance, CA - Toyota Motor Sales (TMS), U.S.A., Inc., today reported October sales of 152,101 vehicles, a decrease of 25.9 percent from last October, on a daily selling rate basis.
Toyota Reports November Sales
http://www.toyota.com/about/news/corporate/2008/12/02-1-sales.html
December 2, 2008 - Torrance, CA - Toyota Motor Sales (TMS), U.S.A., Inc., today reported November sales of 130,307 vehicles, a decrease of 33.9 percent from last November, on a daily selling rate basis.
American Honda Reports November Sales
http://corporate.honda.com/press/article.aspx?id=4884
American Honda Motor Co., Inc., posted November sales of 76,233, a decline of 31.6 percent, compared to record November 2007 results. American Honda year-to-date sales of 1,342,680 represent a 5.8 percent decrease, based on the daily selling rate*.
Schroeder
12-06-08, 04:43 PM
@Mothballs
The difference is, they aren't fighting for their survival. They can stomach the reduced numbers in sales without goverment money.
Onkel Neal
12-06-08, 04:56 PM
American Auto will not survive this crisis..
Wanna bet? ;)
Most people do not want an electric car. I sure don't.
No problem. Enjoy 4 dollar gas once the economy gets back on track.
You be sure to call me when you buy an electric car, k?
GoldenRivet
12-06-08, 05:38 PM
I agree with Neal ... Sort of
I have always been of the opinion that a family that has two cars should ditch one car and replace it with an all electric vehicle.
All the running around town should be done in the electic car, all the long distance trips go to the gas powered car.
Think of the fuel savings... And the financial gains.
Skybird
12-08-08, 08:06 AM
Nobel economist Krugman has predicted the end of US car makers, since their problems are structural ones and are rooting too deep. He said that giving them tax billions now only buys them some additional months of time. By which he says it is effectively a waste of tax money.
Practically all car makers currently suffer losses, even Toyota, and all German car makers as well, who for too long built expensive, luxurious cars, and did not adapt to the needs of the changing world. Ironically, GM daughter Opel suffered the most of all German car makers, although after years of bad design they now have relatively modern cars on offer. their US mother is pulling them down with them.
The era of industry and machinery depending on fossil fuels necessarily and unavoidably will come to an end, and we already have entered the process of this change. The only question is whether we understand this and take the time we have left to adapt as best as possible, or if we continue to reject what we do not want to hear (for we do not like to change our old familiar ways) and thus are heading into a very bumpy ride through long times of crisis and conflict, when we have run out of the old ways and find ourselves lacking sufficient new ways. Seen that way, electric cars are the clever way to go for both producers and consumers, but they are just one piece in the greater puzzle. Whether some people like electric cars or not, is not really important. and the earlier they become a strong market factor, the earlier they will have left the days of technological childhood behind, and will have grown in reliability, quality and performance.
the current crisis in economy, finance, ecology should be understood as an opportunity to implement major changes, and getting away from fossil fuels and machinery depending on them.
...
the current crisis in economy, finance, ecology should be understood as an opportunity to implement major changes, and getting away from fossil fuels and machinery depending on them.
But the oil price is dropping... they'll say
there are untapped oil reservoirs... they'll say
the data are incoclusive... they'll say (reminds me of the tobacco industry and cancer thingy)
and so on
and the band continued to play as the Titanic was sinking...:hmm:
Skybird
12-08-08, 08:53 AM
Even when you substract the effects of speculation, the oil price dropped because of the turmoil on the financial markets, and the economic crisis this has started. Once this comes to en end (sooner or later, but maybe not as fast as many predict), oil will skyrocketing again. Maybe even earlier if OPEC makes enough cuts on production.
That there are untapped oil reserves, is questionable, and much hints at that we already are beyond peak oil. Saudi Arabia's reserves are the nation'S top priority number one state secret, and they were unable to boost their production further when there was demand. what we know for sure is that the major oil resource fields known are depleted, and winning oil there and in other places has become much, much more expensive and less productive. Also, there is the issue of emissions from burning fossil fuels. even if we would have more oil left, we must ask if it is to be desired to carry on turning it into emissions drifting around in the atmosphere, just to win electricity and for moving things and people from A to B.
The Titanic may sink right now or a bit later, but what we know for sure is it will not reach New York. The question is if we have time enough left to bring all passangers into safety by calling another ship and carrying them over and continue the trip with the other ship, then. The earlier we start doing so, the more time we have for the evacuation process. The longer we wait, the less time we have, and of course there is this critical time mark beyond which not all passengers will make it any more, and the longer you wait beyond that time mark before you get things started, the more passengers will not make it. Simple, isn't it. From one critical time stamp on, not a single one will make it anymore - then time simply has run out.
Schroeder
12-08-08, 11:09 AM
@Skybird
I think Diopos meant it ironically.;)
(Or did I miss something...again....):roll:
Frame57
12-08-08, 11:49 AM
Just more of the same...mass hysteria and market manipulation steeped in greed and powered by fear. Truth is off the pacific rim there is at least 400 years worth of crude awaiting extraction. Problem is, is that these hybrids are un-popular and they are not cost effective to produce, so unless you either force or scare people into them, they will not sell. Funny how OPEC dropped the prices when people tightened their belts...
Cobalt Goldenrivt? Pfft I got one of those stuck in my F150 tread the other day. Was annoying as hell hearing that click click click as I went down the road.
One thing most don’t realize with the newer vehicles is how fuel efficient they are. My F150 has a v8 4.6L and gets better mileage then the Ranger I had with a v6 4.0L. Not kidding one bit…..
And I could not live without a pickup.....
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