McCain now beating Obama in 1 day in the polls? Wow!

[SUBMAN1]

Weird that he is getting so much of the vote so soon! This stuff usually doesn't show up for Republicans till election day! :D :up:

-S


Pollster John Zogby: "Is McCain making a move? The three-day average holds steady, but McCain outpolled Obama today, 48% to 47%. He is beginning to cut into Obama's lead among independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR voters. Joe the Plumber may get his license after all. "Obama's lead among women declined, and it looks like it is occurring because McCain is solidifying the support of conservative women, which is something we saw last time McCain picked up in the polls. If McCain has a good day tomorrow, we will eliminate Obama's good day three days ago, and we could really see some tightening in this rolling average. But for now, hold on."

[CCIP]

Well now, I wouldn't get my hopes up just yet. Considering the consistent pattern across polls, I wouldn't take one day's good sign as an overall good sign. There's just too much statistics pointing to the contrary right now.

That said, perhaps it's true that McCain is being under-sold in the press slightly. And I'm sure Arnie's speech has also buoyed McCain, at least for the day - which may be what's being reflected here.

[SUBMAN1]

Of course McCain is being undersold. A study already found that:

Study: Media coverage has favored Obama campaign

NEW YORK (AP) - John McCain (http://www.subsim.com/radioroom/http%3A%2F%2Fsearch.breitbart.com%2Fq%3Fs%3DJohn%2 520McCain%26sid%3Dbreitbart.com) supporters who believe they haven't gotten a fair shake from the media during the Republican's candidacy against Barack Obama (http://www.subsim.com/radioroom/http%3A%2F%2Fsearch.breitbart.com%2Fq%3Fs%3DBarack %2520Obama%26sid%3Dbreitbart.com) have a new study to point to.... Read on here - http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D945SHBG1&show_article=1

[SUBMAN1]

I forgot to mention CCIP - Nov 4th is only 1 day.

-S

[CCIP]

Well, perhaps given how much money Obama has spend on ads in the same media by comparison, that shouldn't be surprising. The media like stories, but they like money even more :damn:

[edit]

And I know you were gonna pull that one, but I'd say there's more factors working against this than just a one-day thing.

[SUBMAN1]

Like an athlete its when you peek that counts

-S

[Von Tonner]

Like an athlete its when you peek that counts

-S Go and lie down Subman in a dark corner for the next 3 days - your bigoted outlook on the world is about to implode. Reconcile yourself to an Obama presidency - I know it hurts for your limited outlook on the world and your own country but remember, through the pain comes comfort. Although, given your previous posts you could prove that saying wrong.

[Zachstar]

Like an athlete its when you peek that counts

-S Go and lie down Subman in a dark corner for the next 3 days - your bigoted outlook on the world is about to implode. Reconcile yourself to an Obama presidency - I know it hurts for your limited outlook on the world and your own country but remember, through the pain comes comfort. Although, given your previous posts you could prove that saying wrong.

Amen!

[Zachstar]

Ah Subman your early celebrating based on a proven bad poll company is helping drive out the dem vote (We had worried some Obama supporters might have stayed home thinking Obama was a sure win)

Thanks! :up: Enjoy the next 4-8 years of OBAMA!!

[Biggles]

The election day is not here just yet....anything can happen....



But I can always hope on a Obama/Biden victory!:D

[Zachstar]

The election day is not here just yet....anything can happen....



But I can always hope on a Obama/Biden victory!:D

You are absolutely right and that is why we have been asking our fellow supporters to assume Obama is down by 20 and act like we want to turn that into a win!

The only way we can lose tho is lack of voter turnout. So PLEASE get out the vote!

[SteamWake]

Go and lie down Subman in a dark corner for the next 3 days - your bigoted outlook on the world is about to implode. Reconcile yourself to an Obama presidency - I know it hurts for your limited outlook on the world and your own country but remember, through the pain comes comfort. Although, given your previous posts you could prove that saying wrong.

Freakin hilarious...

[Onkel Neal]

Like an athlete its when you peek that counts

-S Go and lie down Subman in a dark corner for the next 3 days - your bigoted outlook on the world is about to implode. Reconcile yourself to an Obama presidency - I know it hurts for your limited outlook on the world and your own country but remember, through the pain comes comfort. Although, given your previous posts you could prove that saying wrong.

Yeah.... you know, it's considered a personal attack to call someone a bigot here. If they declare they are a bigot or racist, it's one thing, or if they post what the moderators decide are racist remarks. But let's not start labeling people names just because they are not falling into line behind Lord Obama.

thanks
Neal

[goldorak]

Weird that he is getting so much of the vote so soon! This stuff usually doesn't show up for Republicans till election day! :D :up:

-S


Pollster John Zogby: "Is McCain making a move? The three-day average holds steady, but McCain outpolled Obama today, 48% to 47%. He is beginning to cut into Obama's lead among independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR voters. Joe the Plumber may get his license after all. "Obama's lead among women declined, and it looks like it is occurring because McCain is solidifying the support of conservative women, which is something we saw last time McCain picked up in the polls. If McCain has a good day tomorrow, we will eliminate Obama's good day three days ago, and we could really see some tightening in this rolling average. But for now, hold on."

Polls are a dime a dozen in the usa.
One poll doesn't give any insight into the will of the voters one way or the other.
Now if you get 90% of all polls on a national scale to say that Mc Cain gains on Obama its a little bit more interesting don't you think so ? :D

[Frederf]

I agree with Neal, Von Tonner's words were strictly uncalled for. SUBMAN1's comment was completely inoffensive.

[SUBMAN1]

Just a case of attacking the messenger, not the message. Pretty typical for a few around here.

-S

[AVGWarhawk]

It is obvious Von Tonner is in the bag for Obama. But hey, he is in South Africa, so what does it really matter. :D I do enjoy his opinion on things. I'm surprised Von Tonner, that is not like you to use a label. ;) At any rate, McCain needs to win all the swing states to beat Obama. I seriously do not think he will. This orchestrated campaign has worked well for the Dems. So Obama will win and he will start his let downs immediately starting Jan 1st. It will be nothing but, gosh, I did not know Bush made such a big mess so it will take longer to clean up. Gosh, I forgot I was hanging around Washington helping create the big mess along with the rest of them for the past two years. My first legislation is to assure my illegal aunt can stay in the country. Perhaps the first spreading the wealth will start with her as she is been eating .99 Ramin noodles everyday for the past 4 years. Taking care of family like I'm taking care of America. :up: Change we can believe in. Maybe I can get in one more gloom and doom infomercial before Tuesday. No worries, if I get caught with my pants down socializing with the Uni-bomber, I will get yet another bye. Life is good. Hope......:doh:

[SUBMAN1]

You must not also forget - Wall Street is scared of the redistribute the wealth comments, both from recently and in 2001. There is almost a guaranteed prolonged recession, if not even a depression if he takes office as money leaves the US in favor of more investor friendly countries.

-S

[Ivan Putski]

I remember the headlines once saying "DEWEY WINS".

[Zachstar]

You must not also forget - Wall Street is scared of the redistribute the wealth comments, both from recently and in 2001. There is almost a guaranteed prolonged recession, if not even a depression if he takes office as money leaves the US in favor of more investor friendly countries.

-S

Subman and Scare tactics.

It is like looking back at 2004 again!

[mookiemookie]

Firstly, there is a reason that pollsters include multiple days of interviewing in their tracking polls; a one-day sample is extremely volatile, and have very high margins for error.

Secondly, the Zogby polls have been particularly volatile, because he uses nonsensical party ID weightings (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/tracking-poll-primer.html), which mean that his weighting process involves making numbers doing naughty things that they usually don't like to do.

Thirdly, Zogby polls are generally a lagging rather than a leading indicator. This is because he splits his interviewing period over two days; most of the interviews that were conducted in this sample took place on Thursday night, with a few this afternoon. The reason this is significant is because lots of other pollsters were in the field on Thursday night, and most of them evidently showed good numbers for Obama, as he improved his standing in 6 of the 7 non-Zogby trackers.

Finally, there was no favorable news for McCain to drive these numbers. Polls don't move without a reason (or at least they don't move much).


I understand the McCainiacs are clinging to every last bit of hope, but this ain't it.

[Zachstar]

Well there is one ray of hope for them but this clouds it.

On freeperville they had hope that the polls were fake and would mean less Obama people coming out and voting expecting a big win.

Now this will only encourage us to vote and get our friends off the couch to vote!

So subman's joy is short lived at best.

[SUBMAN1]

I understand the McCainiacs are clinging to every last bit of hope, but this ain't it.This statement shows you are very worried. Good! Since this looks exactly like the stakes when Bush won in 2000, and again in 2004.

-S

[SUBMAN1]

How come this video so applies right now that its scary?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ilXVkgmJk2E

-S

PS. 100,000 Adoring admirers. Denver, and the whole world wait for signs of Peace! Obama plots his next course!

[mookiemookie]

How come this video so applies right now that its scary?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ilXVkgmJk2E

-S

PS. 100,000 Adoring admirers. Denver, and the whole world wait for signs of Peace! Obama plots his next course!
Wow...you've Godwin-ed your own thread.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Godwins_law

[stabiz]

Soon all this spam will be over, and maybe GT will be interesting again.

[Onkel Neal]

It is obvious Von Tonner is in the bag for Obama. But hey, he is in South Africa, so what does it really matter. :D I do enjoy his opinion on things. I'm surprised Von Tonner, that is not like you to use a label. ;) At any rate, McCain needs to win all the swing states to beat Obama. I seriously do not think he will.

I think Von Tonner was just a little aggratvated by all the "McCain" threads Subman posts. I didn't mean to sound like I was jumping on him, just wanted to check in on this topic as a preventative measure.

I think it's looking pretty slim McCain will pull this out. I understand that many "independants" are generally Republican leaning, but despite past elections tightening up in the last days, this one looks in the bag for Obama. The Obama supporters signed on the day he made his first speech--he has charisma and is a dynamic speaker, and his message is directed to those who will vote for someone who says what they want to hear. McCain is old and lackluster, and he isn't a conservative. There really isn't a candidate in this race for me.

[SteamWake]

It aint over till its over :rock:

[fatty]

How come this video so applies right now that its scary?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ilXVkgmJk2E

-S

PS. 100,000 Adoring admirers. Denver, and the whole world wait for signs of Peace! Obama plots his next course!

Can you rationalize for me why this election can be related to the Nuremberg rallies moreso than any from the past?

[Zachstar]

How come this video so applies right now that its scary?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ilXVkgmJk2E

-S

PS. 100,000 Adoring admirers. Denver, and the whole world wait for signs of Peace! Obama plots his next course!

Lowest of low Subman. I await the day Neal finally bans your ass.

Tho I am sure it will be short lived as you hack your way back to spread this junk once again.

[Zachstar]

It is obvious Von Tonner is in the bag for Obama. But hey, he is in South Africa, so what does it really matter. :D I do enjoy his opinion on things. I'm surprised Von Tonner, that is not like you to use a label. ;) At any rate, McCain needs to win all the swing states to beat Obama. I seriously do not think he will.
I think Von Tonner was just a little aggratvated by all the "McCain" threads Subman posts. I didn't mean to sound like I was jumping on him, just wanted to check in on this topic as a preventative measure.

I think it's looking pretty slim McCain will pull this out. I understand that many "independants" are generally Republican leaning, but despite past elections tightening up in the last days, this one looks in the bag for Obama. The Obama supporters signed on the day he made his first speech--he has charisma and is a dynamic speaker, and his message is directed to those who will vote for someone who says what they want to hear. McCain is old and lackluster, and he isn't a conservative. There really isn't a candidate in this race for me.

Um.. Did you forget about Paris?

[Zachstar]

I understand the McCainiacs are clinging to every last bit of hope, but this ain't it.This statement shows you are very worried. Good! Since this looks exactly like the stakes when Bush won in 2000, and again in 2004.

-S

No Good as in worry means people will vote instead of sitting on their arses thinking an Obama win is automatic.

Bush win in 2000 was fake. PERIOD. You can spend 6 days trying to spin his victory but it has been debunked time and time again. Tho if you think it is not fake you can blame Bill for his antics close to election year and Gore for picking a turncoat VP.

Bush win in 2004. NOT a surprise, War fury was still abound. Kerry was no good on the campaign trail and the Swift boats were very effective EARLY. Bush winning by only a small margin was the only shocker there.

This election there IS no advantage for McCain. Sarah will only draw a few PUMAs out if any.

[Reece]

But let's not start labeling people names just because they are not falling into line behind Lord Obama.
:rotfl::rotfl::up:

[1480]

Fine. You want to vote for "change", god bless you. We have been given that right in this country, sort of. The left immediately screams 'more of the same' if McCain is voted into the POTUS spot. You know what, McCain, the two reasons why I will vote for him come 04 NOV 08 are this: the man knew who to pick to back him up, and I will never trust anyone who throws his grandma under the bus.

[nikimcbee]

Fine. You want to vote for "change", god bless you. We have been given that right in this country, sort of. The left immediately screams 'more of the same' if McCain is voted into the POTUS spot. You know what, McCain, the two reasons why I will vote for him come 04 NOV 08 are this: the man knew who to pick to back him up, and I will never trust anyone who throws his grandma under the bus.

I'm ready for the marxist messiah:up: . I have a large soviet flag ready and pictures of lenin. So when the thought police come around they will overlook me.

[nikimcbee]

http://mypetjawa.mu.nu/archives/obama_ascension_water_Marx.jpg

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jvxiG56M-eU

[nikimcbee]

oh, I already voted.:up:

[1480]

J you are a yag minov :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:

[Zachstar]

Fine. You want to vote for "change", god bless you. We have been given that right in this country, sort of. The left immediately screams 'more of the same' if McCain is voted into the POTUS spot. You know what, McCain, the two reasons why I will vote for him come 04 NOV 08 are this: the man knew who to pick to back him up, and I will never trust anyone who throws his grandma under the bus.

Right............ :rotfl:

[AVGWarhawk]

McCain has as much a chance as a fish does in the desert. I believe Obama will do his very best to get the little train that could back on the track. He will find it very hard. Obama does not scare me and his redistributing the wealth, etc. It is the likes of Pelosi and the Barney Franks on Capitol Hill that concerns me. I hope Obama finds the VETO stamp Bush left behind, gets a new ink pad for it and learns how to use it. Let's face it, it was not Bush that drove the country into the ground in the past two years. It was not the actions of Obama driving the country into the ground. It was the collective inaction on Capitol Hill that drove this country into the ground in the past two years. Sad really when daily the news has yet another Senator or Congressman taking illegal money for home repairs, trips or just a bribe. Another in an affair with a woman or man. :roll: I think they have way to much time on their hands to do other things other than looking at the issues and greating good legislation. In all reality, term limits need to be imposed. Each are required to be at every session of Congress, period. Christ, we all have to show up for work on time. If not, we get the boot. It is silly they get away with what they do and receive a paycheck for it. In all reality, there is no accountability.

[sonar732]

I've thought about the implications of a Mccain presidency. With a democratic controlled congress...he's hosed. No matter of legislation that he has been pushing during this campaign will be implemented due to Pelosi and Reid. The only reason why the economic stimulous packages and extra rebates passed during Bush's presidency is because the constinuants of a democratic congress told them they wanted money and weren't worried about what it would do to the defficit. The possible Palin V-P won't be able to strong arm the congress like Cheney did in the past.

There is word that the democrats will gain more seats than last the last election which will make the prospect of a comprimise between Mccain and the Congress almost as believable as me becoming hermit.

[Von Tonner]

Like an athlete its when you peek that counts

-S Go and lie down Subman in a dark corner for the next 3 days - your bigoted outlook on the world is about to implode. Reconcile yourself to an Obama presidency - I know it hurts for your limited outlook on the world and your own country but remember, through the pain comes comfort. Although, given your previous posts you could prove that saying wrong.
Yeah.... you know, it's considered a personal attack to call someone a bigot here. If they declare they are a bigot or racist, it's one thing, or if they post what the moderators decide are racist remarks. But let's not start labeling people names just because they are not falling into line behind Lord Obama.

thanks
Neal

I do not want to make waves here but consider the following.

What is a bigot: A bigot is a person who is intolerant of opinions, lifestyles, or identities differing from his or her own, and bigotry is the corresponding state of mind. Bigot is often used as a pejorative (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pejorative) term against a person who is obstinately devoted to prejudices even when these views are challenged or proven to be false or not universally applicable or acceptable.

What has Subman1 posted on these forums regarding Obama: http://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showthread.php?t=138285&highlight=obama+muslim

What did Powell say on people who claim Obama is a Muslim:

Powell also said he was troubled that some Republicans - he excluded McCain - continue to say or allow others to say that Obama is a Muslim, when he is a Christian. Such rhetoric is polarizing, he said.

"He's always been a Christian. But the really right answer is, what if he is? Is there something wrong with being a Muslim in this country? The answer's no, that's not America," Powell said. "Is there something wrong with some 7-year-old Muslim-American kid believing that he or she could be president?"

Subman1 I am sorry, has gone overboard in his attack on Obama.

Getting back to the definition of a bigot. Obama is not a muslim, so if Subman1 wants to continue with his allegation that he is - then yes, he is a bigot.

[SUBMAN1]

I do not want to make waves here but consider the following.

What is a bigot: A bigot is a person who is intolerant of opinions, lifestyles, or identities differing from his or her own, and bigotry is the corresponding state of mind. Bigot is often used as a pejorative (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pejorative) term against a person who is obstinately devoted to prejudices even when these views are challenged or proven to be false or not universally applicable or acceptable.

What has Subman1 posted on these forums regarding Obama: http://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showthread.php?t=138285&highlight=obama+muslim

What did Powell say on people who claim Obama is a Muslim:

Powell also said he was troubled that some Republicans - he excluded McCain - continue to say or allow others to say that Obama is a Muslim, when he is a Christian. Such rhetoric is polarizing, he said.

"He's always been a Christian. But the really right answer is, what if he is? Is there something wrong with being a Muslim in this country? The answer's no, that's not America," Powell said. "Is there something wrong with some 7-year-old Muslim-American kid believing that he or she could be president?"

Subman1 I am sorry, has gone overboard in his attack on Obama.

Getting back to the definition of a bigot. Obama is not a muslim, so if Subman1 wants to continue with his allegation that he is - then yes, he is a bigot.

You know whats funny about all this? You have consitently shown more intolerance than me in most threads, including this one. You are intolerant of my views, yet I am not of yours, and i don'[t attack you for your views. So who here does this label really qualify? It is definitely not me.

Hypocrisy at its finest.

-S

[Von Tonner]

I do not want to make waves here but consider the following.

What is a bigot: A bigot is a person who is intolerant of opinions, lifestyles, or identities differing from his or her own, and bigotry is the corresponding state of mind. Bigot is often used as a pejorative (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pejorative) term against a person who is obstinately devoted to prejudices even when these views are challenged or proven to be false or not universally applicable or acceptable.

What has Subman1 posted on these forums regarding Obama: http://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showthread.php?t=138285&highlight=obama+muslim

What did Powell say on people who claim Obama is a Muslim:

Powell also said he was troubled that some Republicans - he excluded McCain - continue to say or allow others to say that Obama is a Muslim, when he is a Christian. Such rhetoric is polarizing, he said.

"He's always been a Christian. But the really right answer is, what if he is? Is there something wrong with being a Muslim in this country? The answer's no, that's not America," Powell said. "Is there something wrong with some 7-year-old Muslim-American kid believing that he or she could be president?"

Subman1 I am sorry, has gone overboard in his attack on Obama.

Getting back to the definition of a bigot. Obama is not a muslim, so if Subman1 wants to continue with his allegation that he is - then yes, he is a bigot.
You know whats funny about all this? You have consitently shown more intolerance than me in most threads, including this one. You are intolerant of my views, yet I am not of yours, and i don'[t attack you for your views. So who here does this label really qualify? It is definitely not me.

Hypocrisy at its finest.

-S
Subman1 I have no quarrel with you as a person. The quarrel I have with you is your unsubstantiated posts which attack Obama. Such as he is a Muslim. Lets cut the crap here. Let me ask you directly: Do you argue that Obama a muslim? Let me just say, as an academic, I am in no way intolerant of opposing views, but those views must have some substance in fact. So, if you stand by your post that I referred to, substantiate your reason and belief for posting a thread that claims "Obama is a Muslim". If you cannot substantiate this claim, my next question is why did you post this? Does it not then give an inclination to you as a person? That you may may be a bigot i.e. perpetuating falsehoods when they have been disaproved by all accounts.

[SUBMAN1]

Subman1 I have no quarrel with you as a person. The quarrel I have with you is your unsubstantiated posts which attack Obama. Such as he is a Muslim. Lets cut the crap here. Let me ask you directly: Do you argue that Obama a muslim? Let me just say, as an academic, I am in no way intolerant of opposing views, but those views must have some substance in fact. So, if you stand by your post that I referred to, substantiate your reason and belief for posting a thread that claims "Obama is a Muslim". If you cannot substantiate this claim, my next question is why did you post this? Does it not then give an inclination to you as a person? That you may may be a bigot i.e. perpetuating falsehoods when they have been disaproved by all accounts.
Nice twist, but your previous posts were an attack on me personally. This post is just damage control and is in the wrong thread to discuss it.

-S

[Von Tonner]

Subman1 I have no quarrel with you as a person. The quarrel I have with you is your unsubstantiated posts which attack Obama. Such as he is a Muslim. Lets cut the crap here. Let me ask you directly: Do you argue that Obama a muslim? Let me just say, as an academic, I am in no way intolerant of opposing views, but those views must have some substance in fact. So, if you stand by your post that I referred to, substantiate your reason and belief for posting a thread that claims "Obama is a Muslim". If you cannot substantiate this claim, my next question is why did you post this? Does it not then give an inclination to you as a person? That you may may be a bigot i.e. perpetuating falsehoods when they have been disaproved by all accounts.
Not twist, but your previous posts were an attack on me personally. This post is just damage control and is in the wrong thread to discuss it.

-S

Whatever Subman1. You and I could "share a beer" given the good beer we brew here in SA and what I take to believe your love of beer. But I do notice you don't answer my question as to whether you believe Obama is a Muslim.

[SUBMAN1]

Whatever Subman1. You and I could "share a beer" given the good beer we brew here in SA and what I take to believe your love of beer. But I do notice you don't answer my question as to whether you believe Obama is a Muslim.As i said, wrong place to discuss it.

[Biggles]

Is it the right place to discuss this then?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/in_depth/629/629/7360265.stm

[SUBMAN1]

Is it the right place to discuss this then?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/in_depth/629/629/7360265.stmYes, but the 51% is a little high based on the polls that seem to be going across the US right now. Yesterday, it was McCain 48% to 47% for Obama.

-S

[Biggles]

You mean it dropped from 50+ for Obama to 47-48 overnight? Sounds very unlikely if you ask me. Although, I've never followed an american election with this interest earlier (I'm just 17 for christs sake!) so I'm not fully aware of what could be considered likely or not...

[SUBMAN1]

You mean it dropped from 50+ for Obama to 47-48 overnight? Sounds very unlikely if you ask me. Although, I've never followed an american election with this interest earlier (I'm just 17 for christs sake!) so I'm not fully aware of what could be considered likely or not...That's what Zogby reported as said in the very first post in this thread. This brought McCains 'average' back into the margin of error. Add in the reluctance of conservatives to participate in polls (myself included since I denied the gallop polls multiple times this year) and add another 8 to 10 points for McCain.

This puts things 'EXACTLY' the same as Bush in 2004. This puts this election almost at a toss up, though i think the Repubs have a nack for getting people out of the woodwork to vote on election day that the demo's don't.

-S

[Biggles]

Sorry I missed that.


I personally refuse to give a clear answer on who I think will win on Tuesday. I hate to be wrong you see:roll:

Who I want to win....

Well....personally...I'd rather see a change in world politics soon;)

[MothBalls]

This puts things 'EXACTLY' the same as Bush in 2004.

That would suck because 2004-2008 hasn't been fun at all in the USA.

Or do you mean mean McCain's brother is going to step in and manipulate the results in Florida?

[mookiemookie]

This puts things 'EXACTLY' the same as Bush in 2004. This puts this election almost at a toss up, though i think the Repubs have a nack for getting people out of the woodwork to vote on election day that the demo's don't.

-S

If Obama wins all the Kerry states from '04 (fivethirtyeight.com puts that chance at 95%), all he needs is either Ohio or Florida or Virginia plus Colorado to put it in the bag. Obama is leading in all of those states. Things looking "exactly like '04" does not work in McCain's favor here.

[donut]

Saturday, November 1, 2008 2:59 PM

By: Kenneth R. Timmerman Article Font Size http://www.newsmax.com/images/layout/minus.jpg (javascript:setActiveStyleSheet('default');) http://www.newsmax.com/images/layout/plus.jpg (javascript:setActiveStyleSheet('largeFont');)
http://images.newsmax.com/headline_vertical/AP060719027991.jpg

A former top deputy to Nation of Islam leader Louis Farrakhan tells Newsmax that Barack Obama’s ties to the black nationalist movement in Chicago run deep, and that for many years the two men have had “an open line between them” to discuss policy and strategy, either directly or through intermediaries.

“Remember that for years, if you were a politician in Chicago, you had to have some type of relationship with Louis Farrakhan. You had to. If you didn’t, you would be ostracized out of black Chicago,” said Dr. Vibert White Jr., who spent most of his adult life as a member and ultimately top officer of the Nation of Islam.

White broke with the group in 1995 and is now a professor of African-American history at the University of Central Florida in Orlando.

White said Obama was “part of the Chicago scene” where Farrakhan, Jesse Jackson, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright Jr. and radicals would go to each other’s events and support each other’s causes.

“Even though Chicago is the third-largest city in the country, within the black community, the political and militant nationalist community is very small. So it wouldn’t be uncommon for [Obama and Farrakhan] to show up at events together, or at least be there and communicate with each other,” White told Newsmax.

The Anti-Defamation League has denounced Farrakhan and his Nation of Islam as a “hate group.”

Farrakhan has called Jews “bloodsuckers,” “satanic” and accused them of running the slave trade. He has labeled gays as “degenerates.” In a 2006 speech, the ADL again condemned Farrakhan when he said: “These false Jews promote the filth of Hollywood that is seeding the American people and the people of the world and bringing you down in moral strength. … It's the wicked Jews the false Jews that are promoting lesbianism, homosexuality. It's wicked Jews, false Jews that make it a crime for you to preach the word of God, then they call you homophobic!"


Obama was careful to “denounce” Farrakhan’s comments – but not the man -- during the Democratic primary season earlier this year, but only after Hillary Clinton called him out for benefiting from Farrakhan’s support.

Farrakhan endorsed Obama in a videotaped speech to his followers at Mosque Miryam in Chicago in February. “You are the instruments that God is gonna use to bring about universal change, and that is why Barack has captured the youth,” Farrakhan said.

He told the crowd that Obama was the new “messiah.” See Video: Farrakhan Endorses Obama, Calls Him Messiah. (http://election.newsmax.com/obama_messiah.html)
Once the news media and the Clinton campaign got hold of those comments from Farrakhan, demands mounted from all sides that Obama “renounce” Farrakhan.

But as he has done repeatedly throughout this campaign, Obama was careful to parse his words.

“You know, I have been very clear in my denunciation of Minister Farrakhan's anti-Semitic comments,” he said during one appearance on “Meet the Press.” “I think that they are unacceptable and reprehensible.”

Obama hastened to point out that Farrakhan had been praising him as “an African-American who seems to be bringing the country together. I obviously can't censor him, but it is not support that I sought. And we’re not doing anything, I assure you, formally or informally with Minister Farrakhan.”

But Obama, once again, was less than candid.

In 1995, according to a profile of Obama that appeared in the Chicago Reader newspaper, Obama “took time off from attending campaign coffees to attend October’s Million Man March in Washington, D.C.”

At the time, Obama was running for the Illinois Senate from Chicago’s South Side, a seat he won after getting surrogates to challenge the signatures on nominating petitions for his chief rival, the incumbent Alice Palmer.

The march, which fell far short of attracting the million men it advertised, was organized by Farrakhan and by Obama’s then-pastor, the anti-white black nationalist Wright.

Obama spoke at length with the Chicago Reader upon his return from the Million Man March. “What I saw was a powerful demonstration of an impulse and need for African-American men to come together to recognize each other and affirm our rightful place in the society," he said.

“These are mean, cruel times, exemplified by a ‘lock ’em up, take no prisoners’ mentality that dominates the Republican-led Congress,” Obama said.

“Historically, African-Americans have turned inward and towards black nationalism whenever they have a sense, as we do now, that the mainstream has rebuffed us, and that white Americans couldn't care less about the profound problems African-Americans are facing."

“Black nationalism” is a current of thought and political action in the African-American community that has been championed by the likes of Farrakhan, Wright, Malcolm X, the Black Panthers and Khalid al-Mansour. Obama discussed his attraction to black nationalism at length in his 1995 memoir “Dreams of My Father.”

Obama further parsed his words in a Feb. 25, 2008, presentation to a Jewish community meeting in Cleveland, Ohio, where he insisted that Wright “does not have a close relationship with Louis Farrakhan.”

And yet, just months earlier, Wright’s Trumpet magazine gave Farrakhan its Lifetime Achievement Dr. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr. Trumpeter Award, saying that Farrakhan “truly epitomized greatness.”

That award was the fruit of a long and deep relationship between the two men, White told Newsmax. In 1984, Wright accompanied Farrakhan on his much-criticized trip to meet Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi, at a time when Gadhafi was considered an enemy of the United States.

Wright also accompanied Farrakhan and Jackson to Syria in 1986, where they successfully negotiated with Syrian strongman for the release of downed American pilot Robert O. Goodman.

Obama’s Speaking Style

In addition to the ideological affinity Obama expressed for the black nationalist movement, White believes that Obama owes much of his success as a public orator to speaking techniques that Farrakhan developed over the years, and exploited for years to great success.

“If you listen to the rhetoric and you take away Obama’s political jargon, you hear a religious tenor to it that is very much Nation of Islam-like. I don’t know if anyone has ever touched on it, but Obama’s speaking style is very Malcolm-like, very Farrakhan-like,” White said.

Any American who has listened to early radio or television interviews of Obama can hear how dramatically Obama’s speaking style has changed since he became a United States senator.

In clips dating from 2001 and even early 2004, Obama speaks haltingly and in long, rambling sentences packed with legalese and dense pseudo-academic rhetoric. But not today.

“As a former minister of the Nation of Islam, I know how they speak,” White told Newsmax. “I don’t know who was training Obama. But that style is not a ministerial style like in the Christian church. It’s a Nation of Islam style.”

White began in the late 1970s as a foot soldier in the Fruit of Islam, the military branch of Farrakhan’s Black Muslim group, then rose to become a minister of the Nation of Islam and a top deputy to Farrakhan himself.

Known initially as Brother Vibert L.X., and later as Minister V.L. Muhammad, he parted ways with Farrakhan not long after the Million Man March, after nearly 25 years within the organization.

White’s 2002 book “Inside the Nation of Islam” prompted death threats by Farrakhan loyalists, so he left Illinois and moved to Florida to teach at the University of Central Florida.

He told Newsmax that Obama’s remarkable speaking style, even his manner of standing at a podium to appear larger than life, is directly copied from Farrakhan.

“If the Nation of Islam can’t do anything else, it can train people how to speak. And nobody can outspeak a Muslim minister,” he said.

Earlier this year, a pro-Clinton blog run by former CIA officer Larry Johnson unearthed a 2004 photograph showing Michelle Obama and Farrakahn’s wife, Mother Khadijah Farrakhan, at an event hosted by Jackson’s Citizenship Education Foundation.


Newsmax queried Obama’s U.S. Senate office, his Chicago office and his campaign press office about his ties to Farrakhan, but did not receive a reply.

Ever since he appeared before the annual policy conference of the American-Israel Public Affairs Committee in June, Obama has attempted to convince the Jewish community that he is pro-Israel.

But his longstanding ties to Farrakhan, Wright and Palestinian activist Rashid Khalidi, among others, have disturbed many Jewish community leaders.

Sen. John McCain publicly chastised The Los Angeles Times on Thursday for not releasing a videotape the newspaper said it possessed of a 2003 dinner for Khalidi, where Obama reportedly accused Israel of carrying out a “genocide” against the Palestinians.

[SUBMAN1]

If Obama wins all the Kerry states from '04 (fivethirtyeight.com puts that chance at 95%), all he needs is either Ohio or Florida or Virginia plus Colorado to put it in the bag. Obama is leading in all of those states. Things looking "exactly like '04" does not work in McCain's favor here.

They said the same thing back then.

Anyway, here are the rest of the polls starting to catch up to yesterdays news - we are within the margin of error and rising:

Obama lead over McCain narrows to 8 points: poll

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE4A20EA20081103

[Stealth Hunter]

Eight points?

:rotfl:

Better get to work on bringing that lead down. He's got one more day to do so.;)

[Frederf]

I swear socialism is the trendy new communism. Where did this McCarthyist resurgence come from? Should we burn anyone who thinks the system could be a bit more fare as some sort of Salem witch? Why is fear such a Republican mainstay?

Understand that nearly any legislative policy is effectively a redistribution of wealth. There's nothing evil about redistribution of wealth. I guarantee you that at least 9/10 of both candidates' proposed legislation falls under the redistribution of wealth category. We must realize that the current distribution of wealth is just one possible version of the wealth distribution and very far from "fair", "normal", or "equitable."

Socialism like all "isms" are merely philosophical directions, not end points. No one person is a "pure" socalist falling on the theoretical endpoint of the spectrum. Accusing someone of being a "pure socialist" is ridiculous and irresponsible. America is a mixture of many different philosophical directions that combines to form a functional union.

We have elements of fascism, socialism, capitalism, nationalism, communism, etc,etc in our country. Now a lot of these philosophies have gotten a bad rap because someone abused some of these ideas to destructive ends. We have to be smarter than that and see how these ideas are merely tools to construct our society without inherit malice in any one of them.

Also this discussion of who's going to win the election is a bunch of puff-chested nonsense. "Anything could happen" or "The election isn't over yet!" are big WELL DUH!s. Gary Colman could be the write in President so possibility is a meaningless concept. We have to talk probability.

Speaking about probability, my impression based on incomplete data, is that Obama/Biden leads by a significant but not irreversible margin. I speak of the electoral college, the one that matters, not the popular vote (a.k.a. distraction statistic).

Also you and I both have to be well aware of how difficult and complex polling data is. If you don't have a decent background in population representation statistics, you're likely to have a hard time reaching any meaningful numbers. I do understand that the margin for error is rather large in these polls as the expected turn out and several other factors make this "uncharted waters" in terms of polling accuracy.

[goldorak]

Sorry I missed that.


I personally refuse to give a clear answer on who I think will win on Tuesday. I hate to be wrong you see:roll:

Who I want to win....

Well....personally...I'd rather see a change in world politics soon;)

I don't mind being wrong from time to time, so I'll stick my neck out and proudly announce that Obama will win the election. :p
There, I said it. :rotfl:

[JHuschke]

:up: I knew he could do it, just keep it up and he will be president in no time.

[AVGWarhawk]

Obama will win. I can not contest that. It does make me upset that the most resent damning evidence of Obama past is just coming to light. I hope it does not come back to bite us in the butt. :o

[Konovalov]

Like an athlete its when you peek that counts

-S
One day out and new Fox News Polls (http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,446288,00.html)give little encouragement for Senator McCain and his chances tomorrow. He is leaving his peeking to very very late in the game. :hmm:

[Fish]

Like an athlete its when you peek that counts

-S Go and lie down Subman in a dark corner for the next 3 days - your bigoted outlook on the world is about to implode. Reconcile yourself to an Obama presidency - I know it hurts for your limited outlook on the world and your own country but remember, through the pain comes comfort. Although, given your previous posts you could prove that saying wrong.
Yeah.... you know, it's considered a personal attack to call someone a bigot here. If they declare they are a bigot or racist, it's one thing, or if they post what the moderators decide are racist remarks. But let's not start labeling people names just because they are not falling into line behind Lord Obama.

thanks
Neal

I do not want to make waves here but consider the following.

What is a bigot: A bigot is a person who is intolerant of opinions, lifestyles, or identities differing from his or her own, and bigotry is the corresponding state of mind. Bigot is often used as a pejorative (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pejorative) term against a person who is obstinately devoted to prejudices even when these views are challenged or proven to be false or not universally applicable or acceptable.

What has Subman1 posted on these forums regarding Obama: http://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showthread.php?t=138285&highlight=obama+muslim

What did Powell say on people who claim Obama is a Muslim:

Powell also said he was troubled that some Republicans - he excluded McCain - continue to say or allow others to say that Obama is a Muslim, when he is a Christian. Such rhetoric is polarizing, he said.

"He's always been a Christian. But the really right answer is, what if he is? Is there something wrong with being a Muslim in this country? The answer's no, that's not America," Powell said. "Is there something wrong with some 7-year-old Muslim-American kid believing that he or she could be president?"

Subman1 I am sorry, has gone overboard in his attack on Obama.

Getting back to the definition of a bigot. Obama is not a muslim, so if Subman1 wants to continue with his allegation that he is - then yes, he is a bigot.

Also:

bigot
A person who is religiously attached to a particular computer, language, operating system, editor, or other tool (see religious issues (bword://!!GE5F8HNF7T,religious issues/)). Usually found with a specifier; thus, "Cray bigot", "ITS bigot", "APL bigot", "VMS bigot", "Berkeley bigot". Real bigots can be distinguished from mere partisans or zealots by the fact that they refuse to learn alternatives even when the march of time and/or technology is threatening to obsolete the favoured tool. It is truly said "You can tell a bigot, but you can't tell him much."

FOLDOG
;)

[Stealth Hunter]

Well, SUB, Obama is leading McCain by over 105 electoral votes. Guess your poll didn't mean much, eh?

[SUBMAN1]

Well, SUB, Obama is leading McCain by over 105 electoral votes. Guess your poll didn't mean much, eh?The headcount vote is split nearly evenly. To call anything at this point is crazy.

I call it a toss up so far. See my CNN post to follow the results.

-S

[Stealth Hunter]

Still, I'll wager that Obama's won.

[Onkel Neal]

Obama will win. I can not contest that. It does make me upset that the most resent damning evidence of Obama past is just coming to light. I hope it does not come back to bite us in the butt. :o

Well, we survived Clinton, we can make it through 4 years of Obama. It serve Republicans right, they (esp Bush) turned into spending Democrats and they did not close the border. They deserve to lose.

I may rethink my second career plans... may be a good time to lean on the govt for a living soon ;)

[stabiz]

Wow.

[Digital_Trucker]

I may rethink my second career plans... may be a good time to lean on the govt for a living soon ;)

As a person who currently leans on Social Security and the VA for survival, I guess I should be happy, too. Hope all you folks that are rejoicing in Barry's alleged victory are working hard to support us:D

[Thomen]

I may rethink my second career plans... may be a good time to lean on the govt for a living soon ;)
As a person who currently leans on Social Security and the VA for survival, I guess I should be happy, too. Hope all you folks that are rejoicing in Barry's alleged victory are working hard to support us:D

Don't count on me! I may join you guys soon.

[nikimcbee]

I may rethink my second career plans... may be a good time to lean on the govt for a living soon ;)

As a person who currently leans on Social Security and the VA for survival, I guess I should be happy, too. Hope all you folks that are rejoicing in Barry's alleged victory are working hard to support us:D

I should quit my new (high paying) job and go back to my unemplyment check. It was more than minimum wage pays.:rotfl:

[Jimbuna]

I only hope Obama can live up to allthe fancy talk and promises he made on the run up to the election :hmm:

[Biggles]

Sorry I missed that.


I personally refuse to give a clear answer on who I think will win on Tuesday. I hate to be wrong you see:roll:

Who I want to win....

Well....personally...I'd rather see a change in world politics soon;)

I don't mind being wrong from time to time, so I'll stick my neck out and proudly announce that Obama will win the election. :p
There, I said it. :rotfl:

Congrats, you were right!:p :rotfl:

[Blacklight]

I look at the title of this thread....

And now... I laugh.

:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:

[GlobalExplorer]

Is it still open? :confused:

[Jimbuna]

http://img229.imageshack.us/img229/7057/bump1ci1.gif


http://imgcash3.imageshack.us/img412/4774/thumbsuplargeon1.gif