Covert Escalation in Iran

[PeriscopeDepth]

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSB65580520080629

Not surprising. This part did surprise me, however:

Clandestine operations against Iran are not new. U.S. Special Operations Forces have been conducting crossborder operations from southern Iraq since last year, the article said.
These have included seizing members of Al Quds, the commando arm of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, and taking them to Iraq for interrogation, and the pursuit of "high-value targets" in Bush's war on terrorism, who may be captured or killed, according to the article.


Would Brag like to chime in? :)


PD

[nikimcbee]

Interesting stuff. I hope it "works out" and doesn't cause the whole situation to escalate.

[Stealth Hunter]

I hope it doesn't. If the operations start failing, maybe he'll give up and we can quit pestering one another to give the Middle-Easterners some PEACE!:-?

[Skybird]

Not surprising at all. Things like this are running since the mid-80s - tells you something about the chances of "regime change". And if they put their trust into the jundallah, by far no unknown variable in Iran, then you cannot escape shaking your head in despair about this new american idiocy - don't they never learn from their mistakes? Have they forgotten how the CIA and the Pakistani created the Taleban during the Soviet occupation, sending them to fight the Russians? Look at the Taleban now.

[August]

The article by reporter Seymour Hersh,

Meaning it's based on unidentified "government sources" and not necessarily actual people...

[geetrue]

This is most interesting material you have provided PD ...

Please tell us more ... we get so little news where we live.

http://img.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2008/01_02/binMOS1201_228x461.jpg

[PeriscopeDepth]

Man who spied for Israel to be executed:
http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSDAH02094420080630?sp=true

PD

[Platapus]

I am not surprised that Israel has agents in Iran. I would be shocked if they didn't.

They are usually smart enough not to get caught though.

"As always if you are caught or killed, the Secretary will disavow all knowledge of your operation"

[SUBMAN1]

What scares me the most is Iran's declining population. Child birth out there used to be almost 7 per woman. This is how they did the mass suicide attacks against Iraq forcing Saddam to resort to gas to stop them, lest he be over-run. Current child birth rate is 1.7 per woman - not enough to maintain the current population.

This gives rise to Iran's agressive tendencies as of late. Are they rattling sabre's in an act prior to war? Iran has the man power to mount an offensive in the gulf if it wants to. In the future, it is clear that they will be of limited capacity due to its aging population - faster than any other western country including Europe!

Just some thoughts. I expect soemthing out of them soon.

-S

[PeriscopeDepth]

They are usually smart enough not to get caught though. $hit happens, I suppose.

And I just finished reading this blog article:
http://informationdissemination.blogspot.com/2008/06/exploring-israel-iran-option.html

Interesting highlight:
We believe if one was casting odds, the odds of Barak Obama or John McCain bombing Iraq in the first 100 days of their presidency is higher than Bush bombing in his remaining days. With that said, we believe Israel will likely bomb Iran during the Bush administration, and when it happens it will change the way the world looks at 21st century warfare. SUTER (http://informationdissemination.blogspot.com/2007/11/israel-hid-in-plain-sight-against-syria.html) will be small stuff compared to what we expect to see.

I can't say what, but I do think something will happen in the next few months. All parties have been making a fair amount of noise.

PD

[Platapus]

Actually it is the rate of population growth that is declining, not the population.

According to the US Census Bureau: Iran's current population is about 72 million. Iran's rate of population growth will continue to slow until it stabilizes above 90 million by 2050. More than two-thirds of the population is under the age of 30. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran#Demography)

So I don't think Iran is in any population problem (other than over population). Nor is the population considered aging. If anything the population is "under aged" which accounts for the increased disagreement with the conservative government.

As the old hardliners start dying off, the new generation will start filling the positions. Given enough time and no foreign interference Iran might just turn around by itself.

According to one of my professors (who is Iranian), other than a small radical population of college students and the hardliners, a large section of the population really does not have animosity toward the US. Like in the US, it is only the extremists that get the press it seems.

Strategically, this is not the time to attack Iran as it would only serve to codify the hardliner's policy in the minds of the citizens.

In the eight parliamentary elections since the revolution more and more moderates are being elected to office. Good changes are coming to the Republic... but slowly... but they are coming. In the amendment to the Iranian Constitution in 1989 even the religious requirements for the Supreme Leader were removed as the republic is readjusting the balance between religious and secular considerations.

[SUBMAN1]

You are looking at old data man. Wake up to the new data (United Nations - source):

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/IK13Ak01.html

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/images/spengdem1.gif

As Jenkins reports, Iran's fertility rate has fallen to only 1.7 children per female, below the population replacement rate of 2.1.

-S

[Platapus]

be interested in finding out what they are basing their models on. That is one of the problems with modeling population that far out. :)

While it is true that there has been a population decrease of about 3 million from 2007 to 2008, and the birth rate is declining, the birth rate is between 16 and 17/1000 and the death rate is between 5.6 and 5.7/1000. The good news is that the infant mortality rate is decreasing from a high in 2003. (indexmundi.com)

They are still in the first generation since the Iran/Iraq war. It will take more than one generation to stabilize the population. But one can never tell about the future. Things change.

[MothBalls]

I can't say what, but I do think something will happen in the next few months. All parties have been making a fair amount of noise.

Yep. Even read a couple places Iran is digging graves near their borders for the enemy troops they plan on killing. Something like 300,000 of them.

I think it more likely the Bush/Cheny will drag us into it somehow before the end of term. There were a few Admirals that resigned a short while back after being briefed by Bush, that's a red flag. When your top level commanders think your nuts, time to take a step back. Remember back when the military leaders were the warmongers and the civilian government had to hold them back?

I think they should just take all of the leaders of these countries who want the war, put them and their families in a big cornfield in Kansas, give them all knives and guns, and ask them to fight the war on behalf of the people. I bet the bastards would come out of the field with a peace treaty.

[SUBMAN1]

be interested in finding out what they are basing their models on. That is one of the problems with modeling population that far out. :)Simple - births vs. deaths vs. women. No weird models. Iran is in a world of hurt from a future speaking perspective.

These numbers have a direct correlation to economy numbers as well, so that will fall with it.

-S

PS. This says it best:

A generation ago, it stood at 6.5. In other words, Iran presently has a bulge of military-age men as cannon-fodder. In a generation it will not be able to fill the ranks.

[CDR Resser]

I can't say what, but I do think something will happen in the next few months. All parties have been making a fair amount of noise.

PD
A saber only rattles when it is sheathed. I makes no noise when drawn.:up:

[Iceman]

then you cannot escape shaking your head in despair about this new american idiocy

Kinda like some old German idiocy huh Skybird?...your such a dork.

When some Ahole says he would wipe a country off the map...your a fool to turn your back on him...I think that is common sense.

[SUBMAN1]

then you cannot escape shaking your head in despair about this new american idiocy
Kinda like some old German idocy huh Skybird?...your such a dork.I second that. They should have never integrated East Germany with the West. The result was SB.

-S

[PeriscopeDepth]

Yep. Even read a couple places Iran is digging graves near their borders for the enemy troops they plan on killing. Something like 300,000 of them.
That is just a typical fire and brimstone press release from the Iranians, for the benefit of their populace. They are not actually doing that.
I think it more likely the Bush/Cheny will drag us into it somehow before the end of term. There were a few Admirals that resigned a short while back after being briefed by Bush, that's a red flag.
When Fallon left, a lot of people were speculating he was fired because he disagreed about Iran. But I don't think this admin would make a move on Iran now, it would ruin the election for the Republicans IMO. We will, I have no doubt, be given notice by the Israelis and help them where we can. I've been wrong before, though.
When your top level commanders think your nuts, time to take a step back. Remember back when the military leaders were the warmongers and the civilian government had to hold them back?
True enough.

PD

[Takeda Shingen]

then you cannot escape shaking your head in despair about this new american idiocy
Kinda like some old German idocy huh Skybird?...your such a dork.I second that. They should have never integrated East Germany with the West. The result was SB.

-S

We aren't going to be calling people names. If you want to argue points, then argue them, but you are both over the line right now. Step back, take a breath and realize that this is just a naval simulation forum. No minds are going to be changed here.

The Management

[Tchocky]

Interesting snippet from Gates on action against iran.

"Gates warned of the consequences if the Bush Administration staged a pre-emptive strike on Iran, saying, as the senator recalled, 'We'll create generations of jihadists, and our grandchildren will be battling our enemies here in America.' Gates's comments stunned the Democrats at the lunch, and another senator asked whether Gates was speaking for Bush and Vice-President Dick Cheney."Gates's answer, the senator told me, was 'Let's just say that I'm here speaking for myself.' http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/justinwebb/2008/06/gutsy_gates.html

August - I wouldn't be so quick to disparage Mr Hersh. For every Dark Side of Camelot there's an Abu Ghraib, a My Lai, a KAL 007...

[August]

August - I wouldn't be so quick to disparage Mr Hersh. For every Dark Side of Camelot there's an Abu Ghraib, a My Lai, a KAL 007...

The Abu Ghraib story was not brought to light by Hersh, nor was My Lai. Both were made public by serving members of the US military. As for KAL 007 Hersh did make some accusations of CIA involvement, again based on mysterious and unidentified "government sources" but AFAIK they remain unsubstantiated.

Personally, i think Hersh is good at claiming credit for the risk of others and very good at making things up. I would not trust his reporting one single bit.

[SUBMAN1]

We aren't going to be calling people names. If you want to argue points, then argue them, but you are both over the line right now. Step back, take a breath and realize that this is just a naval simulation forum. No minds are going to be changed here.

The ManagementI apologize for my comments, but maybe we can also tone down the constant attacks, specifically on my country. It is non-stop.

-S

[Takeda Shingen]

I apologize for my comments, but maybe we can also tone down the constant attacks, specifically on my country. It is non-stop.

-S

Apology accepted, and no harm. I think that you bring a lot of great things to this forum. After all, you are SubSim's Mr. Tech Advice. Still, criticism of a goverment is not on the same level as a personal attack. There is a lot said on this forum about the US, EU, China, Russia, et al. It's all acceptable, so long as it remains 'country X's goverment is doing something stupid', and not 'forum member X is stupid'.

[Ishmael]

Actually, this war scenario was gamed by the US Navy a year or to ago and the first results were that the Red force(Iran) had an overwhelming victory over the Blue Force(US Navy) effectively annhillating all US Naval forces inside the Persian Gulf and closing the Hormuz Straits. Projected US casualties from the exercise ran into the tens of thousands. So, if you want to pay $10-15/gallon for gas and see the Fifth fleet lying on the bottom with the bones of it's crews, go ahead and attack. Meanwhile, the world will dump their petrodollar holdings so our troops in Iraq will have to walk to US bases in Germany while we take wheelbarrows full of cash just to buy a loaf of bread.

[Skybird]

Actually, this war scenario was gamed by the US Navy a year or to ago and the first results were that the Red force(Iran) had an overwhelming victory over the Blue Force(US Navy) effectively annhillating all US Naval forces inside the Persian Gulf and closing the Hormuz Straits. Projected US casualties from the exercise ran into the tens of thousands. So, if you want to pay $10-15/gallon for gas and see the Fifth fleet lying on the bottom with the bones of it's crews, go ahead and attack. Meanwhile, the world will dump their petrodollar holdings so our troops in Iraq will have to walk to US bases in Germany while we take wheelbarrows full of cash just to buy a loaf of bread.
I heared that wargame rumoured, with pretty much the results you describe, but I never knew for sure if the wargame was a reality, or just a rumour meant to make an impact on the politcal stage.
You have any details, or links?

[Tchocky]

I was immediately reminded of Millenium Challenge, Skybird. But I'm not sure it that's the one.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Challenge_2002

[Skybird]

I honstely don't now if the two are one and the same, I lived by the impression that they are two separate, but I could be wrong. About MC's idiotic ending I have read before. Sounds like good tactics to make sure one looses the next war. Why assuming the enemy is stupid and fulfills the role one's own tactic has scripted for him? Dogmatists should be fired from military command ranks. Books you can read - the enemy can read as well, tatctics you tried in the past - he likely will have tried to find a counter-tactic for.

[Skybird]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7486338.stm

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Adm. Mullen, warns against war with Iran, calling it "unpredictable" and "extremely stressful".

[Tchocky]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/06/30/AR2008063001940.html?hpid=sec-nation

"On five occasions he was ordered to either falsify his reporting on WMD in the Near East, or not to file his reports at all," Krieger said in an interview.