Obama opens up his lead

[Von Tonner]

This has got to be bad news for McCain. After Obama became the presumptive nominee he was expected to get an initial bump up in the polls, which he did, but not by much. He is now building on that and this is without him having all his ducks in a row yet, eg, full staff, organisers, door knockers, roll out, tv ads running, vp selected, appeal for contributions, fund raising etc, etc.

He now leads McCain by 15 points. What this also illustrates is that he is not so reliant on either both or one of the Clintons as some punters would suggest. Bill Clinton has only today come out by declaring his support for Obama while this Friday will be the first time that Hillary goes public with Obama.

If he can come up with a energy policy that the majority of Americans can buy into it will be that much more difficult for McCain to close him out. And while McCain can claim the surge is showing positive results in Iraq, that argument is undermined by the increase in violence in Afghanistan.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=agCTbSDJ83rc&refer=home

[SUBMAN1]

Are these the same polls that showed that Clinton would win this hands down? :D Propoganda.

Look at your source to. Bloomburg/LA Times. They are only showing their poll and they are a very left news source.

The other polls are showing about a 3% spread - within the margin of error. This is more normal - http://www.gallup.com/poll/108358/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Holds-Slight-Edge-46-vs-43.aspx

-S

http://media.gallup.com/poll/graphs/080624DailyUpdateGraph1_bnytfg5.gif

[AVGWarhawk]

http://i133.photobucket.com/albums/q62/avgwarhawk/Image.jpg

[Tchocky]

Bloomberg ain't biased.

Newsweek have similar (http://www.newsweek.com/id/142465) numbers, a 15-point lead for Obama. Most current polls show a smaller lead.

Any polling this far ahead isn't worth a lot in result forecasting, but it will shape the focus and location of heavy campaigning. Example - More people are identifying as Democratic than Republican, so John McCain is targeting disaffected Dems by spending more ad money in Denver than anywhere else. So it goes.

[SUBMAN1]

Bloomberg ain't biased. Bloomburg is owned by the LA Times. So how so? :D

-S

[STEED]

Polls are crap and should all be dismissed.

My 10p worth. :lol:

[SUBMAN1]

Polls are crap and should all be dismissed.

My 10p worth. :lol:And 10p on the money! :D

-S

[STEED]

Polls are crap and should all be dismissed.

My 10p worth. :lol:And 10p on the money! :D

-S

:lol:


People should read what these guys offer and watch them debating and so on, not base there vote on who is ahead in the polls.

My £2 worth. :D

[AVGWarhawk]

Polls are crap and should all be dismissed.

My 10p worth. :lol:And 10p on the money! :D

-S
:lol:


People should read what these guys offer and watch them debating and so on, not base there vote on who is ahead in the polls.

My £2 worth. :D

Intellectual thinking at it's best...absolutely Steed, following the polls like lemmings to the sea is ridiculous.

[PeriscopeDepth]

But interests who donate big money WILL take heed of these polls. And that will cost McCain.

PD

[Von Tonner]

Polls are crap and should all be dismissed.

My 10p worth. :lol:And 10p on the money! :D

-S
:lol:


People should read what these guys offer and watch them debating and so on, not base there vote on who is ahead in the polls.

My £2 worth. :D
Intellectual thinking at it's best...absolutely Steed, following the polls like lemmings to the sea is ridiculous.
Well if intellectual thinking placed a candidate in the White House then what is Bush doing there?

Like it or not, polls drive the 8 'o'clock news and get you noticed and get you elected. Good or bad, that is the real world of politics.

[mookiemookie]

I wonder if they polled this kid: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b9pFsoU4L0M

[geetrue]

Bloomberg ain't biased. Bloomburg is owned by the LA Times. So how so? :D

-S

15 points is a big lead, but who did they ask?

The Los Angeles Times is 90% owned by LDS (Later Day Saints) and you can't trust them.

[Von Tonner]

Bloomberg ain't biased. Bloomburg is owned by the LA Times. So how so? :D

-S
15 points is a big lead, but who did they ask?

The Los Angeles Times is 90% owned by LDS (Later Day Saints) and you can't trust them.

Refer previous Tchocky post, it is NOT only LA poll but right across the board of ALL polls. Yea, I understand - it hurts.

[mookiemookie]

RealClearPolitics average of all the polls shows Obama with a 6.9% lead over McCain

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/

[SUBMAN1]

RealClearPolitics average of all the polls shows Obama with a 6.9% lead over McCain

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/I guess that is not across all polls now is it? Hmmm... What happened to everyone saying this? I only see 2 that are double digit. The rest are inline with a 3% to 6% difference - probably well within the margin of error, and since repubs are typically the ones you see with no comment, figure it out.

-S

[FIREWALL]

Obama is just a toy for Omphra Winpray. :p

He'll lead us down a road that will go nowhere but to diaster.

McCain will probably use Condeleesa Rice as his trump card as VP and get the black and the women vote. :yep:

[August]

McCain will probably use Condeleesa Rice as his trump card as VP and get the black and the women vote. :yep:



Condi has already said she doesn't want the veep job.

[geetrue]

Did you see where Israel said they will just go ahead and attack Iran's nuclear power plants if Obama wins in November? Not only did they say they would attack ... they even said when they would attack.

Before Obama could take office.

I'll go find it for you if you don't believe ...

[Von Tonner]

RealClearPolitics average of all the polls shows Obama with a 6.9% lead over McCain

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/I guess that is not across all polls now is it? Hmmm... What happened to everyone saying this? I only see 2 that are double digit. The rest are inline with a 3% to 6% difference - probably well within the margin of error, and since repubs are typically the ones you see with no comment, figure it out.

-S
Over 100 odd and more polls across the country give Obama a lead off average 6 to 10% over McCain. I think 3 or 4 in that total give McCain a lead. LA Times, Gallup Rasmussen, Newsweek, USA Today AND even Fox News put Obama out in front. And remember, he is playing catchup to McCain. Refer my original post, once he is up and running McCain is going to have a fight on his hands that will make the headache that Hillary experienced a raving migraine.

[AVGWarhawk]

Polls are crap and should all be dismissed.

My 10p worth. :lol:And 10p on the money! :D

-S
:lol:


People should read what these guys offer and watch them debating and so on, not base there vote on who is ahead in the polls.

My £2 worth. :D
Intellectual thinking at it's best...absolutely Steed, following the polls like lemmings to the sea is ridiculous.
Well if intellectual thinking placed a candidate in the White House then what is Bush doing there?

Like it or not, polls drive the 8 'o'clock news and get you noticed and get you elected. Good or bad, that is the real world of politics.
How did Bush get in the White House? Did you take a look at the other candidates during that campaign or just the polls? I guess the polls put Bush there. Polls mean squat to me and those that surround me daily. No way, shape or form is a poll real world politics. The real data is gotten from the voting machines is the real world politic. Polls are nothing more than to swing those that just go with the flow. That is real world stupidity IMO.

[Schroeder]

Obama is just a toy for Omphra Winpray. :p

He'll lead us down a road that will go nowhere but to diaster.

Even worse than Bush jr. ?:hmm:

[AVGWarhawk]

RealClearPolitics average of all the polls shows Obama with a 6.9% lead over McCain

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/I guess that is not across all polls now is it? Hmmm... What happened to everyone saying this? I only see 2 that are double digit. The rest are inline with a 3% to 6% difference - probably well within the margin of error, and since repubs are typically the ones you see with no comment, figure it out.

-S
Over 100 odd and more polls across the country give Obama a lead off average 6 to 10% over McCain. I think 3 or 4 in that total give McCain a lead. LA Times, Gallup Rasmussen, Newsweek, USA Today AND even Fox News put Obama out in front. And remember, he is playing catchup to McCain. Refer my original post, once he is up and running McCain is going to have a fight on his hands that will make the headache that Hillary experienced a raving migraine.


Let's face it, this part of the campaign is just a formality. Obama will be in the White House. One part of me says let the man roll on in and take the reigns and the other part is apprehensive with his lack of experience. Either way, I think Obama is in for a rude awakening.

[FIREWALL]

McCain will probably use Condeleesa Rice as his trump card as VP and get the black and the women vote. :yep:



Condi has already said she doesn't want the veep job.



As is your habit, You didn't read ALL the article.

At near the end of the article about the 3 women he could choose for running mates , " It's to early for anyone to commit as is usual practice."

At this early stage McCain is courting many canidates for VP.

But HE knows and SHE knows and the PARTY knows Rice will get him in the WhiteHouse.

[PeriscopeDepth]

McCain will probably use Condeleesa Rice as his trump card as VP and get the black and the women vote. :yep:


Condi has already said she doesn't want the veep job.


As is your habit, You didn't read ALL the article.

At near the end of the article about the 3 women he could choose for running mates , " It's to early for anyone to commit as is usual practice."

At this early stage McCain is courting many canidates for VP.

But HE knows and SHE knows and the PARTY knows Rice will get him in the WhiteHouse. Making a Bush admin player and former Chevron exec his VP will not play well with anyone, and would be a mistake.

And IMO, Rice topped out as President of Stanford. She is way out of her league.

PD

[August]

As is your habit, You didn't read ALL the article.

At near the end of the article about the 3 women he could choose for running mates , " It's to early for anyone to commit as is usual practice."

At this early stage McCain is courting many canidates for VP.

But HE knows and SHE knows and the PARTY knows Rice will get him in the WhiteHouse.

First off you didn't post an article, so no I didn't read what you didn't post. :roll:

Second I don't care what someone else wrote about his chances with her as veep. SHE has said she WILL NOT run. Anything else is useless speculation.

[AVGWarhawk]

Anyway, look at the poll in the who will be the next president thread. Hillary had everyone beat. :hmm:

[FIREWALL]

As is your habit, You didn't read ALL the article.

At near the end of the article about the 3 women he could choose for running mates , " It's to early for anyone to commit as is usual practice."

At this early stage McCain is courting many canidates for VP.

But HE knows and SHE knows and the PARTY knows Rice will get him in the WhiteHouse.

First off you didn't post an article, so no I didn't read what you didn't post. :roll:

Second I don't care what someone else wrote about his chances with her as veep. SHE has said she WILL NOT run. Anything else is useless speculation.


In your little world maybe. :doh:

[Iceman]

Change we can believe in...yea right lol. :) (http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1817679,00.html?imw=Y)

[AVGWarhawk]

http://i133.photobucket.com/albums/q62/avgwarhawk/004901c8d26b0ab8dc80bbe82c46.jpg

[AVGWarhawk]

Now what?


http://www.gallup.com/poll/108376/Gallup-Daily-Obama-McCain-Tied-45.aspx

[Tchocky]

Now what/ Well, a tie is just as relevant to Novembers election as a statistically insignificant lead.

Actually, that TIME article's last paragraph is a decent summation

Unlike McCain, however, no amount of careful brand positioning will stop an Obama presidency from signifying undeniable and historic change: he would be the first black President, the first Democrat in the White House since Bill Clinton and the first President of his generation. He has already revolutionized the way people donate to, and help organize, campaigns. All of which means that Obama faces a unique political challenge. As he tries to maintain the fervent grass-roots enthusiasm that has gotten him this far while appealing to enough independents to take him to the White House, the Illinois Senator must both disprove and prove the old adage that the more things change, the more they stay the same.

[Iceman]

Now what?


http://www.gallup.com/poll/108376/Gallup-Daily-Obama-McCain-Tied-45.aspx

Lol...let the debates begin...and then we can come back to the polls.

[SUBMAN1]

Now what?


http://www.gallup.com/poll/108376/Gallup-Daily-Obama-McCain-Tied-45.aspx

The 'No opinion' are likely republicans, so add them to the McCain camp.

-S

[Tchocky]

Now what?


http://www.gallup.com/poll/108376/Gallup-Daily-Obama-McCain-Tied-45.aspx
The 'No opinion' are likely republicans, so add them to the McCain camp.

-S thereby increasing the accuracy of the survey :-?

McCain isn't attracting full Republican support anyway, same way Obama isn't getting all the Dems.

As a colleague observed to me today, you know a campaign is worried about its poll numbers when it actually sends around a memo arguing that the polling involved was done badly. Well, that's what John McCain's campaign did today, distributing a memo we've made available for download in PDF form here. (http://media.salon.com/media/pdf/2008/06/la_times_survey_memo_625.pdf)

[Platapus]

Polls are just a data source. They are not intrinsically right or wrong. There are many variables in interpreting poll results and there are many biases (some intentional, many unintentional.

I would point out that these are June polls and have historically been not that accurate.

November is a long time away, we can't get excited/upset over every single poll over the next four months.

[JetSnake]

The polls typically show the democrat nominee ahead (Bush was behind in the polls during the past two elections and still won). The electoral votes are what counts anyway. Dukakis was 15 points ahead in the polls while he lost big time to Reagan. Take what you may, but pollsters typically poll in democrat areas. They have access to voter registration information and utilize it to skew results.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v470/Jetsnake/Obama_Sticker_01sa.jpg?t=1214435093

[AVGWarhawk]

November is a long time away, we can't get excited/upset over every single poll over the next four months.


Sure is more time.....to find more skeletons in Obamas and McCains closets. :roll: I hope it does not get ugly.

[Platapus]

Sure is more time.....to find more skeletons in Obamas and McCains closets. :roll: I hope it does not get ugly.

With all due respect to your position as a moderator......your hope is unreasonable.

It will continue to get ugly. I honestly don't think we have seen ugly yet. That is what American politics is. :down:

I wish it were different... I truly do :cry:

[Platapus]

Take what you may, but pollsters typically poll in democrat areas.


Do you have a citation for this or is this just your opinion?

[AVGWarhawk]

Sure is more time.....to find more skeletons in Obamas and McCains closets. :roll: I hope it does not get ugly.

With all due respect to your position as a moderator......your hope is unreasonable.

It will continue to get ugly. I honestly don't think we have seen ugly yet. That is what American politics is. :down:

I wish it were different... I truly do :cry:

I was being fictitious:rotfl: Of course it is going to get ugly. (Note)Position as a moderator has no meaning in this discussion. Just yesterday the media was taking pictures of McCains head because he had a small bandage on it. Our media hard at work looking for bandages on McCain...not much mentioned on Obama's smoking habit. I'm sure that will be along in the near future.

We really need to get some debates rolling.

[geetrue]

Those little township home meetings McCain has suggested have Obama running scared. He wants the big crowds supporting him like he had in Austin, Texas for the Texas primary, because with a big crowd they tend to take sides.

A small crowd is more reflective, more serious about the answers to important questions of Obama's ability to run a country the size of the USA.

McCain will shine in those debates ... he's a foxy old pro at handling the younger Obama.

Seventeen more weeks till we know for sure ...

[JetSnake]

barry has already declined to debate in no more than 1 or 2 town hall meeting for that reason. Even though they would not admit it, the guy knows he cannot dodge the unfriendly curve balls that will be pitched his way.

[Tchocky]

Neither man is an accomplished debater. McCain prefers to speak alone to small groups, Obama is a polished public speaker at rallies etc.

To those saying that polls mean nothing - That is true in teh sense that they don't tell us now, in June, how the November vote will go, but they do shape the campaigns.
Feel free to ignore polling data, I guarantee the campaigns and candidates will not.

[Von Tonner]

This is what McCain is going up against and what is been reflected by the polls todate:


Obama, D-Ill., already has displayed strategic and organizing political skills that no president has exhibited since Ronald Reagan (http://www.upi.com/topic/Ronald_Reagan/) in 1980. Obama's greatest disadvantage at the start of his primary contest with Sen. Hillary Clinton (http://www.upi.com/topic/Hillary_Clinton/), D-N.Y., was not the fact that he was African-American, but that he was a freshman senator going up against the acknowledged front-runner who had been a leading figure in the Democratic Party for 16 years.
Clinton proved to be an energetic, determined, resilient and tough campaigner who showed far greater strength in key industrial states and core Democratic constituencies than Obama did. Yet he out-organized her and out-strategized her throughout the campaign. Obama also showed cool nerve and decisiveness in refusing to be pressured or panicked by Clinton into putting her on the ticket as his running mate after she finally conceded defeat.
In contrast to both Bill Clinton and George W. Bush, Obama does not depend heavily on a political mastermind or Svengali in crafting his strategy. While he has a high-powered inner circle of advisers with whom he communes often and fruitfully, he is very clearly the captain of his own ship and charts his own course.
So far, Obama's broad strategic calls have been flawless and he has repeatedly shown a cool political head and great resilience in dealing with every kind of challenge and setback, from Clinton's comeback wins in New Hampshire and Pennsylvania to the revelations about his 20-year pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright.
These achievements would be impressive coming from a twice-elected governor of New York state like Franklin Roosevelt, a twice-elected governor of California like Ronald Reagan or a five-star general of the Army and former Supreme Allied Commander like Dwight D. Eisenhower (http://www.upi.com/topic/Dwight_D._Eisenhower/). Coming from a 46-year-old first-term junior senator, they are amazing.


http://www.upi.com/news/issueoftheday/2008/06/25/Analysis_Obama_shows_genius/UPI-89231214402963/

[NEON DEON]

15 points?

http://media.gallup.com/poll/graphs/080626DailyUpdateGraph1_pmntrdc.gif

[nikimcbee]

Anyway, look at the poll in the who will be the next president thread. Hillary had everyone beat. :hmm:

Who said she's out:rotfl: :roll: .

[Tchocky]

With the general qualifier of this being a general election poll in June, Obama is looking good in several key states (http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x4141.xml?ReleaseID=1188)

[SUBMAN1]

McCain is looking good in several key states.

And to debunk this Obama lead crap, here is a good writeup from the Wall Street Journal. Notice that in the surveys with 15 point leads, they only asked 22% of republicans? Hello? What a load of bunk!

The surveys are not Not biased! hahahahahaha!

Now here's the really funny part! - McCain pulled those numbers when only 22% of Repubs were polled! That tells me Obama is likely very far behind McCain!

Anyway, have at it:

-S

By JOHN FUND
June 27, 2008; Page A13

Some pundits claim John McCain has no chance of beating Barack Obama. "The current bundle of economic troubles should doom any Republican hoping to succeed George Bush," says NBC's Chris Matthews. "It's almost impossible to believe that another Republican could get elected," insists Katty Kay, the BBC's Washington-based correspondent. They need to better understand the rhythms of presidential campaigns and show more humility in a year that's been chock full of political surprises.


Some Democrats claim new polls by Newsweek and the Los Angeles Times showing Sen. McCain trailing by 15 points in each seal the deal on an Obama presidency. But both polls appear to be outliers. Other polls show the race to be close.


Both surveys polled registered, not likely, voters. Normally, only two-thirds of those end up casting ballots, and nonvoters lean Democratic. Second, Democrats had a 14-point advantage in Newsweek's sample, and a 17-point advantage in the Times poll, with Republicans making up only 22% of respondents. That's an unusually low number. Most other polls have the party ID gap with a significantly smaller Democratic edge.


Republicans shouldn't panic, but they should be worried. The McCain campaign reflects the candidate's impulsive nature and hasn't articulated a consistent reform agenda. President Bush's job rating has collapsed. One recent survey found only 53% of Republicans now approve of his performance. Sen. Obama will have so much money to spend he can microtarget millions of his supporters early and deliver absentee ballots – which are prone to abuse – to them.


This election reminds some of the 1980 race, when voters were clearly looking for a reason to vote the incumbent party out of the White House. Even so, Jimmy Carter kept even with Ronald Reagan well into October by painting him as risky and out of the mainstream. Then, in the home stretch, Reagan finally convinced voters he was sensible and trustworthy, and wound up winning by double digits.


Barack Obama is roughly in the same position as Reagan was back then. He is untested in foreign policy. His record in office clearly leans left, with the nonpartisan National Journal rating him the most liberal U.S. senator. When asked this month by ABC News when he had ever broken with liberal orthodoxy and taken risks with his base – as Bill Clinton did on trade, culture and welfare – Mr. Obama had little to say. At a meeting of Obama voters I attended this week, some bemoaned the fact that many of their friends backed him solely because of his cool "name brand" and vague message of change.


The McCain campaign can't expect to win the election on the strength of their man's personal appeal or character. He is most likely to win by engaging Mr. Obama on the issues, and forcing debates over competing visions of foreign policy, and the size and scope of government. Tackling concerns about energy and food costs are key.


Here Mr. McCain has an opening. On many core issues, the country still leans right of center. In last week's Washington Post poll, 50% of voters favored a smaller government with fewer services while 45% wanted a bigger government with more services – the same percentage breakdown as in June 2004.


In the Democratic primaries, Mr. Obama's ideas were rarely challenged. In the fall, they will be. "This election is remarkably fluid with two nonincumbents running," says pollster Scott Rasmussen. "Some 30% of voters say they could easily change their minds, and a third of independent voters aren't paying much attention yet."


There is evidence that fall campaigns, which tend to focus voters on big-picture issues, usually help Republicans. In 1976, Gerald Ford was seen as a goner during the summer but rallied to finish only two points behind Jimmy Carter. A dozen years later, Michael Dukakis led George H.W. Bush in June and July. He lost by eight points in the fall. In 1992, Bill Clinton had a 10-point lead around Labor Day. He won by only five and a half points. Even Bob Dole closed a 12-point Labor Day gap to only eight points by November 1996. If that history is a guide, a focused McCain campaign that clearly contrasts conservative and liberal approaches to the issues should have a good chance of winning.


After all, it isn't easy for Democrats to win in a two-person race for president. Since FDR's last victory in 1944, only one Democrat – Lyndon Johnson in 1964 – has won 50.1% or more of the popular vote. Both of Bill Clinton's victories were aided by Ross Perot's presence on the ballot.


Mr. Clinton's 1996 re-election offers another lesson. Facing a presidential defeat in addition to losses in Congress, Republicans boldly appealed to the public's fondness for divided government. They put out ads featuring a fortune-teller staring into a crystal ball showing over-the-top scenes of Biblical devastation, plague and conflict. An announcer warned: "Remember the last time Democrats ran everything? The largest tax increase in history. Government-run health care. More wasteful spending. Who wants that again? Don't let the media stop you from voting. And don't hand Bill Clinton a blank check."


It worked. Republicans kept control of Congress. Haley Barbour, then chairman of the Republican Party and now governor of Mississippi, said at the time that voters responded to the idea they needed an insurance policy against one-party rule. Independent voters may not like the idea of having the government completely controlled by the trio of Barack Obama, Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid.


If Republicans had a better sense of why Democrats so often slump during fall campaigns, more of them would come out of the tall grass where they've been hiding and earn a presidential victory the old-fashioned way – by focusing on the worth of their ideas. Their additional challenge this year is also convincing voters they've learned from the mistakes they made when they abandoned those ideas.

[Stealth Hunter]

Actually, CNN is even showing Obama with a significant lead over McCain... but these polls really don't mean a damn thing in the end. It will come down to November of this year... that's when polls and results will begin to matter the most.

[NEON DEON]

And yet Gallup still shows a dead heat again today.

http://media.gallup.com/poll/graphs/080627DailyUpdateGraph1_yjbrwsd.gif

[Platapus]

Before we get too excited about polls, let’s consider what a poll is, or more specifically a report of a poll’s results

1. It is what a polling organization chooses to report on

2. Some part of the data collected and any interpretation on

3. What some group of people said that

4. They might do in the future

What can effect the fidelity of a poll (it is not appropriate to talk about how “accurate” a poll is but how faithfully it reports the opinions of the interviewees.)?

4. People may change their minds in the future. What they truly intend today may not be what they do in the future

3. People may or may not tell the pollster what they truly think. People have been known to give false and misleading answers to polls. People do not always tell the truth about how they will vote.

2. The poll may be deliberately or accidently biased. Constructing a poll is not easy and it is not difficult to bias the questions. Choosing a representative group is harder than it sounds. Do you choose random people or do you plan for a mix of the cross section of the population.... or both... or neither?

The organization may deliberately or accidently misreport their findings. A lot of statistical crunching occurs in polls. As many of you know, it is easy to make statistics support pretty much any position.

Thats a lot of area where errors can be introduced.

As I said before, polls can only be one data point. One has to be careful on how much interpretation and analysis is based on such single data points.

Polls do appeal to the citizenry though :)

I would truly recommend not getting too spun up over any poll.

Polls are like the weather. If you don't like this one, just wait, another one will come along. :)