Why NATO can't deliver peace in Afghanistan

[Skybird]

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,druck-556304,00.html

A long but good read, I think.


Forty nations are embroiled in an unwinnable war in Afghanistan. Anyone who travels through the country with Western troops soon realizes that NATO forces would have to be increased tenfold for peace to be even a remote possibility. ...
Last year, 1,469 bombs exploded along Afghan roads, a number almost five times as high as in 2004. There were 8,950 armed attacks on troops and civilian support personnel, 10 times more than only three years earlier. One hundred and thirty suicide bombers blew themselves up in 2007. There were three suicide bombings in 2004.
.

Related: "What's important is to kill the Germans":
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,554545,00.html


Haqqani: You just don't understand: There is no need for special orders anymore. The mujahedeen are just doing what they are responsible for doing. To kill and attack Germans is the goal and that is clear to everyone. The entire chain and network is responsible. ... Yes, we lost some key commanders such as Mullah Dadullah, Osmani or Mansoor Dadullah, but just look at the history of the Taliban between 1995 and 1996. Back then we also lost two important main commanders -- Mullah Mohammad and Mullah Borjan -- but we still took control of Kabul and almost all of Afghanistan. ... The holy Koran forbids committing suicide, but it does not forbid the fedayeen. There is a huge difference. Suicide is when a person kills himself without any ultimate goal, but fedayeen strive for the ultimate goal, Islam. ...

[bradclark1]

One or the other would be lost. I guess the lost has been chosen.

[Skybird]

One or the other would be lost. I guess the lost has been chosen.
Pardon? I don't get what you mean.

[jpm1]

i think the talibans can't rule a country as from what i've seen they have intolerable doctrines in particular concerning women so we should fight them . the problem is Bin Laden does the guy simply exists

[bradclark1]

One or the other would be lost. I guess the lost has been chosen.
Pardon? I don't get what you mean.
I've said numerous times that we are going to have to pick Afghanistan or Iraq to concentrate on. We can't do both so therefore we will lose one.

[Skybird]

And I was wondering about KIAs, and in what way what was to be expressed for what reason, and how to make sense of it. :D

[jpm1]

One or the other would be lost. I guess the lost has been chosen.
Pardon? I don't get what you mean.
I've said numerous times that we are going to have to pick Afghanistan or Iraq to concentrate on. We can't do both so therefore we will lose one.

withdrawal in Afghanistan is impossible for the US i mean what the opinion the US opinion would say if Bush (or the government) stopped searching the most probable Bin Laden's hideout a withdrawal in Iraq maybe could be possible because of the heavy losses there .??

And I was wondering about KIAs, and in what way what was to be expressed for what reason, and how to make sense of it. :D

as i've said before i think we can't let the country to talibans they are just unsensed fanatics even if the situation concerning Bin Laden is at least opaque i think we must stay and help the country to go foward a real democracy (personal opinion) but in the same time keeping in mind that a country history can be made by its inhabitants only so helping but never sending massive force

[Skybird]

as i've said before i think we can't let the country to talibans they are just unsensed fanatics even if the situation concerning Bin Laden is at least opaque i think we must stay and help the country to go foward a real democracy (personal opinion) but in the same time keeping in mind that a country history can be made by its inhabitants only so helping but never sending massive force

What you want to acchieve is one thing. What you actually can acchieve - is something different.

If I may refer you to some older essay of mine, it is almost two years old, so see it in that timeframe.

http://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showthread.php?t=101846

You said we should wage war since the Taleban behave badly over there (summing it up a bit).Let me remind of the quote by Helmut Schmidt with which the essay closes:
“The decisive factor is not the moral argument, but the
moral fundament of one's own policy. That's what counts,
not the externally presented argument.” (Helmut Schmidt)

[Skybird]

I forgot that I have changed my provider meanwhile, and the old website is no more active. Just in case you are interested, get it here:

http://rapidshare.com/files/118908081/Afghanistan.pdf.html (http://rapidshare.com/files/118908081/Afghanistan.pdf.html)

[jpm1]

I forgot that I have changed my provider meanwhile, and the old website is no more active. Just in case you are interested, get it here:

http://rapidshare.com/files/118908081/Afghanistan.pdf.html (http://rapidshare.com/files/118908081/Afghanistan.pdf.html)

please send me the file via email can't download jmar2252atyahoo.fr (jmar2252@yahoo.fr)

[Skybird]

done

[jpm1]

Thanks http://www.emoticonland.net/smileys/Expressions/expresss001.gif (http://www.emoticonland.net) i understand better the situation there's a pipeline project and Afghanistan is among the very rare passages possible . the other big problem is the drugs we need to eradicate the drug problem to start from sane basis but it would inevitably lead to a confrontation with the warlords armies their power being based on the heroin . but as you say it at the end the only solution to bring the country to democracy s to build hospitals to form teachers and for that we have to be there complex problem ..

[Skybird]

but as you say it at the end the only solution to bring the country to democracy s to build hospitals to form teachers and for that we have to be there complex problem ..
Have I? ;)

I remember clearly that at the end I give a strong recommendation to pull our troops out there. what you mean was an option for the beginning, but Germany failed to militarily protect this strategy, and germ,any alos broke a lot of promises regarding support (all Western antions did not fulfill their promsies in full), while America has failed to even realise this strategy, and instead first forgot Afghanistan (in favour of Iraq), then approached it on military terms exclusivly. the americans meanwhile have learned (last but not least by Patreus' dogmatic changes in Iraq, that civil reconstrution would have been very important to achieve their goals, but their insight came too late. Nevertheless - the Germans haven't learned anything at all, and talk of a condition that even does not exist any longer, while the brutal and quckly detoriating reality gets actively rejected by german politicians. So, I criticise america here, but I criticise germany as well, and at least as strong as america.

You either do it in full, or you don't do it at all. Both america and Germany have failed in different fields, and on monumental scale, and both failed for different reasons, but both have failed. I can't see that we have anything to win over there anymore.

Get our troops out of afghanistan. I entitled the essay "Trapped in the Afghan maze", and after two years it still is the best description of the status quo I can think of. Get our troops out of this mess. This war could run for decades - and what for? WHAT FOR...?

[Brag]

Excellent article!


Afghanistan as a country on the map is strictly a fantasy. The best description is the Tribal Areas in Pakistan, which really belong to the area to the north. It's a jumble of groupings ruled by warlords and formerly vassals who gave lip service to a king.

These tribes simply don't put up with foreigners interfering with their affairs. I've been to the tribal areas along the Pakistani border, had tea in caves and even did some trout fishing. Pakistan had its agents in the area and they were very careful to do nothing that would upset the locals. This system has been in place for thousands of years. The only change has been the weapons in the hands of the locals.

The big mistake commited is that the Americans did not withdraw right away after trashing the Taliban. Now, militarily, it has become a lose-lose proposition. The only possible result of foreign armed intervention is further destabilisation of the region.

[jpm1]

the problem is heroin and the money of heroin which allows local warlords to purchase weapons maybe the solution can come from setting ones against each others and when they are enought weakened to put the final point with a coalition army

[Skybird]

Coalitions in Afghanistan never have a long life span. Nor are they truistworthy. As they have some kind of saying over there: "you can lease an Afghan, but you can't buy him". You need to stop approaching the situation from a western perspective and logic, jpm1. It is a completely different world (and time), and it follows rules the usual western citizen cannot even imagine.Stop thinking we need to do this or that for them, and bring them democracy and our imaginations fo how a soceity is being run. It means nothing there. It'S an archaic, feudal, patriarchalic, tribal society. It is what Europe was when the Gaulle and Teutonic tribes were fighting against Rome. the Gaulles were defeated, but the Teutons were teaching Rome what it means to be afraid of a foreign culture one does not understand, and whom one could not defeat militarily. Well, women were treated different (and much better) both by the Gaulles and Teutons, but you get my idea.

Democracy, anyone - there ? ;) May even be successful in that - and see fundamentalist Islam taking the ride on the vehicle named democracy and abandoning it once it has served it's purpose. You just read that essay of mine, you said. what was it that General Lebed has told the West? ;) "In that culture of theirs, we have nothing to win." Listen to the man, he knew it better than most people talking abiout Afghanistan. he fought the eye-to-eye as Spetznatz general, was declared three times MIA, and one time KIA. He understood the drives and motivations of the enemy better than most planners and analysts sitting in the control centres in America, and Potsdam. the opposition in Afghnaistan since long goes beyond that of the taleban only, I even claim that defeating the Taleban means nothing anymore. Internally, the Taleban are not even referred to so mujch in NATO. The resistance since at least 3 years also include gropwing opposition from Afghan tribes that in the past were hostile to the Taleban.

And be clear about this: it is a war driven not at least by religion. Democracy is no match for literal Islam. And no western idealism beats idealism of the kind motivated by religion. This even the european crusaders that initially wre just trying to recapture what was conquered by Islam had to learn.

[August]

And be clear about this: it is a war driven not at least by religion. Democracy is no match for literal Islam. And no western idealism beats idealism of the kind motivated by religion.

Now there is an interesting quote from a person who continually does whatever he can to destroy the idealism of western religion. :roll:

[Brag]

Skybird --You got it right!

[SUBMAN1]

And be clear about this: it is a war driven not at least by religion. Democracy is no match for literal Islam. And no western idealism beats idealism of the kind motivated by religion.
Now there is an interesting quote from a person who continually does whatever he can to destroy the idealism of western religion. :roll:

Funny thing is, Western religion is the only force that may be able to fix the problem permanently.

-S

[August]

Funny thing is, Western religion is the only force that may be able to fix the problem permanently.

-S

Can't say I agree with that. defends on what you mean by "fix" and "permanently".

[CCIP]

Funny thing is, Western religion is the only force that may be able to fix the problem permanently.

-S
Can't say I agree with that. defends on what you mean by "fix" and "permanently".

That's what scares me. I keep trying to tease an answer out of Skybird, Subman and the likes on this issue and all I get is "fix". I'm honestly quite disturbed by the very idea of this "fix".

[PeriscopeDepth]

I don't think it has anything to do with religion, at least on our part.

When was the last time the US Army defeated an insurgency? And the time before that? Not advocating a course of action, just saying that maybe that's what we'd have to do. And we can't do that, for obvious reasons. So we shouldn't even be trying. All we're accomplishing is militarily irritating people and inviting a mushroom cloud over a major American city eventually. IMO.

PD

[jpm1]

Coalitions in Afghanistan never have a long life span. Nor are they truistworthy. As they have some kind of saying over there: "you can lease an Afghan, but you can't buy him". You need to stop approaching the situation from a western perspective and logic, jpm1. It is a completely different world (and time), and it follows rules the usual western citizen cannot even imagine.Stop thinking we need to do this or that for them, and bring them democracy and our imaginations fo how a soceity is being run. It means nothing there. It'S an archaic, feudal, patriarchalic, tribal society. It is what Europe was when the Gaulle and Teutonic tribes were fighting against Rome. the Gaulles were defeated, but the Teutons were teaching Rome what it means to be afraid of a foreign culture one does not understand, and whom one could not defeat militarily. Well, women were treated different (and much better) both by the Gaulles and Teutons, but you get my idea.

Democracy, anyone - there ? ;) May even be successful in that - and see fundamentalist Islam taking the ride on the vehicle named democracy and abandoning it once it has served it's purpose. You just read that essay of mine, you said. what was it that General Lebed has told the West? ;) "In that culture of theirs, we have nothing to win." Listen to the man, he knew it better than most people talking abiout Afghanistan. he fought the eye-to-eye as Spetznatz general, was declared three times MIA, and one time KIA. He understood the drives and motivations of the enemy better than most planners and analysts sitting in the control centres in America, and Potsdam. the opposition in Afghnaistan since long goes beyond that of the taleban only, I even claim that defeating the Taleban means nothing anymore. Internally, the Taleban are not even referred to so mujch in NATO. The resistance since at least 3 years also include gropwing opposition from Afghan tribes that in the past were hostile to the Taleban.

And be clear about this: it is a war driven not at least by religion. Democracy is no match for literal Islam. And no western idealism beats idealism of the kind motivated by religion. This even the european crusaders that initially wre just trying to recapture what was conquered by Islam had to learn.

i insist not because i do not agree with you i've read your article i agree everything you said but i've seen documentaries of these talebans they kill women in public just because they're suspected of adultery with another guy i canno't approve that if you were a woman in Afghanistan would you want to see the allied take their bags and take the plane back home :hmm:

[SUBMAN1]

That's what scares me. I keep trying to tease an answer out of Skybird, Subman and the likes on this issue and all I get is "fix". I'm honestly quite disturbed by the very idea of this "fix".Simple. Because if you don't change the mindset, you will never win. Atheism can't help you.

-S

[SUBMAN1]

One more reason why NATO can't deliver peace - Europe lacks any resolve, and the US cannot rely upon them. Figured I'd mention that since this is what CCIP is looking for. If Europe had resolve, this war would already be over, probably replaced be a marginally unstable peace.

-S

[joegrundman]

It's the Europeans fault :o

:lol:

[LtCmdrRat]

Gents, It is partisans war. Nobody in history won it( especially in Afganistan).
Only one way is to put "our son of bitch" into the power give him enough money, weapons and close eyes. "Americans can always be counted on to do the right thing...after they have exhausted all other possibilities." Sir Winston Churchill
There is another big problem in West World: political correctness is messing with common sense.
And can anyone put 20-21 century democracy in the world living according XiV century traditions?

PS About Democracy. I like Oscar Wilde definition of Democracy “Democracy means simply the bludgeoning of the people by the people for the people.”

[PeriscopeDepth]

And can anyone put 20-21 century democracy in the world living according XiV century traditions?

BINGO. Not anymore, at least.

PD

[LtCmdrRat]

May be we should leave them alone let them play their freaking games with each other.
But for sure without any even theoretical possibility to have WMD on their hands.

[Skybird]

The commander in Afghnaistan has changed soem days ago.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/nol/ukfs_news/hi/newsid_7430000/newsid_7432700/7432700.stm

The BBC's Alastair Leithead in Kabul says Gen McNeill's reputation in Afghanistan has been for straight talking and keeping out of politics. (...)

When he took over in February 2007 Isaf had 33,000 troops. Even though there are now 53,000 troops, Gen McNeill said that was still not enough.
"This is an under-resourced war and it needs more manoeuvre units, it needs more flying machines, it needs more intelligence, surveillance and recognisance apparatus," Gen McNeill said.

"I'm not just focused on the US sector, I'm talking about across the country."
He suggested that if counter-insurgency guidelines were strictly followed, 400,000 troops would be needed in Afghanistan.

How nicely in line with my estimations of 400-500 thousand from years ago. I wonder if those who laughed about me giving these numbers years ago still laugh today. ;)