EU (!) experts: Iran may have enough plutonium for weapon by the end of this year

[Skybird]

Gulp...

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,536914,00.html (http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,536914,00.html)

Mr. El-Baradei, Mr. Solana - any plan B ? Eventually...? Maybe...? Just in case? I'm just asking, you know...

[Stealth Hunter]

Look, if Iran was going to build a nuclear weapon, do you really think they'd announce their stockpiles of resources and go into details on test results for the news? No. The simple fact is this: nobody trusts the Middle-Easterners, and they always rave with suspicion about them. I'm not saying that I know if they are going to use it for nuclear power and nothing more, but then again, neither can anyone else... rightfully, anyway...:shifty:

[Onkel Neal]

Go, Iran, go! Build a lot of nukes, so a few can "disappear" and turn up as surprises elsewhere. :roll: Then the peaceniks will be begging the US to so something about it, whereas if the US acts before it's too late, they are aggressors.

[Kapitan_Phillips]

I hope they do build a weapon. Then it'll give us an excuse to point everything we've got at them. I'm sick and frigging tired of all this "ooo, look what so and so Middle Eastern country is doing!" I dont give two halves of a turd, anymore.

Bring what you got, Iran. We will if you try something, bitch. :p

[AkbarGulag]

Wolf Wolf Wolf.

[StarFox]

Honestly, while I am a bit concerned, as long as they dont threaten people, so what

but should that happen, I think something should be done....and if at all possiable...not by the United States, but the US could join some one else's fight...But I dont believe the US Starting anything is a good idea, were still struggling with the last stupid fight we picked

[CCIP]

Go, Iran, go! Build a lot of nukes, so a few can "disappear" and turn up as surprises elsewhere. :roll: Then the peaceniks will be begging the US to so something about it, whereas if the US acts before it's too late, they are aggressors.
I'm not sure they need to disappear to cause trouble, even. Seriously, it's Iran we're talking about - the Republican Guard with one of those puppies is enough of a headache!

I'm waiting for Israel to do something about it. I guarantee you it's not going to be a real threat for the US for a long, long time - but it could be a real danger to Israel almost immediately after they build it.

[bookworm_020]

Waiting to see what Israel reaction will be. Where did theose Viraga taking piolts go???:hmm:

[CCIP]

Waiting to see what Israel reaction will be. Where did theose Viraga taking piolts go???:hmm:

They crashed after grabbing the wrong stick :rotfl:

[StarFox]

Waiting to see what Israel reaction will be. Where did theose Viraga taking piolts go???:hmm:
They crashed after grabbing the wrong stick :rotfl:

thats one hell of a way to die.....

[Onkel Neal]

Waiting to see what Israel reaction will be. Where did theose Viraga taking piolts go???:hmm:

They crashed after grabbing the wrong stick :rotfl:

:lol: :lol: :lol:

[Platapus]

Just a few points.

Your post title is inaccurate. There is no indication that the Iranians are producing Plutonium. The referenced article discusses Uranium.


- Spiegel is an ultra conservative newspaper in Germany. So we are getting their particular political flavour on the reporting. Spiegel has its own agenda to consider.


- The article is using specific terms incorrectly. Whether this is intentional (to lead the reader to make a political inference) or unintentional (due to ignorance, which is rampant in journalism), the term “Highly Enriched Uranium” is misleading

--Highly Enriched Uranium is a specific term defined as any sample of Uranium in which the Isotopes of Uranium 235 make up 20% or higher of the sample.


--To make a Uranium nuclear device or weapon, “Weapons grade Uranium” is needed. This is also a specific term which is defined as any sample of Uranium in which the Isotopes of uranium 235 are 90% or greater of the sample.


--So while all Weapons Grade Uranium is Highly Enriched Uranium, not all Highly Enriched Uranium is Weapons Grade. Not by a long shot.


-The debate whether the Iranians are using P1, P2 or indigenous centrifuges continues. As every country who has ever tried Gas Centrifuge as a method of Uranium Enrichment has found, it aint easy. The United States sure did. In any rate, none of these specific centrifuge designs are interchangeable. One does not pull out a P1 and stick in a P2. They use different mountings and bearings. You would not even want to mix them in the same cascade.


-While obtaining the fissile material is important, it is not the only hurdles in producing a Uranium device/weapon. A lot of other research needs to be done and experimentation conducted concerning the non-fissile components. It has not been demonstrated that the Iranians are involved in this further research/experimentation.

I suppose we can always fall back on the Chaney/Rumsfield “logic” of “if we can’t prove it false, it is proven true.” But I hope not. We need to deal with facts, not fears.


I am always suspicious of information coming from exile groups. These groups have agendas. An exile group feeding us the information we expect in order to further their agenda is something to consider.

I think we need to continue just what we are doing with Iran.

Intel is watching them
IAEA is inspecting them

Let’s collect the facts, not the fears

[Skybird]

Just a few points.

Your post title is inaccurate. There is no indication that the Iranians are producing Plutonium. The referenced article discusses Uranium.


- Spiegel is an ultra conservative newspaper in Germany. So we are getting their particular political flavour on the reporting. Spiegel has its own agenda to consider.

You must be kidding. It is conensus to rank it as liberal at best. Most would say it is left. I think it has been left, but turned to the middle in recxent years. But ultra-conservative? :lol: Maybe if you yourself stand far enough in the left side.

The topic title expresses a possibility by saying that Iran may have enough materuial by the end of the year. Nothing else do the JRC experts say.


- The article is using specific terms incorrectly. Whether this is intentional (to lead the reader to make a political inference) or unintentional (due to ignorance, which is rampant in journalism), the term “Highly Enriched Uranium” is misleading

--Highly Enriched Uranium is a specific term defined as any sample of Uranium in which the Isotopes of Uranium 235 make up 20% or higher of the sample.


--To make a Uranium nuclear device or weapon, “Weapons grade Uranium” is needed. This is also a specific term which is defined as any sample of Uranium in which the Isotopes of uranium 235 are 90% or greater of the sample.


--So while all Weapons Grade Uranium is Highly Enriched Uranium, not all Highly Enriched Uranium is Weapons Grade. Not by a long shot.



Since specific terms from science and military in public media often get mixed up or used unprecisely, we have no reason to assume that the JRC is crewed by personell showing the same kind of lacking knoweldge or precision. It is their job to know these things, I would say.

-The debate whether the Iranians are using P1, P2 or indigenous centrifuges continues. As every country who has ever tried Gas Centrifuge as a method of Uranium Enrichment has found, it aint easy. The United States sure did. In any rate, none of these specific centrifuge designs are interchangeable. One does not pull out a P1 and stick in a P2. They use different mountings and bearings. You would not even want to mix them in the same cascade.


-While obtaining the fissile material is important, it is not the only hurdles in producing a Uranium device/weapon. A lot of other research needs to be done and experimentation conducted concerning the non-fissile components. It has not been demonstrated that the Iranians are involved in this further research/experimentation.

The JRC said themselves they used several different values for their variables describing a theoretic reality to calculate how long it would take the iranians.


I suppose we can always fall back on the Chaney/Rumsfield “logic” of “if we can’t prove it false, it is proven true.” But I hope not. We need to deal with facts, not fears.


that is true for the US. But for the EU as well were every unwelcomed possibility first get ignored by reflex, then gets ignored by decision.

I am always suspicious of information coming from exile groups. These groups have agendas. An exile group feeding us the information we expect in order to further their agenda is something to consider.
The IAEA confirmed claims made by Ahmadinejadh in November, and who would accuse the IAEA to be the first wanting war? It is these confirmed numbers of centrifuges that were feeded into the model of the JRC.

I think we need to continue just what we are doing with Iran.
I think that is the perfect recipe to acchieve nothing, giving them all time they need, and suddenly face ultimate defeat in this play of gamble. In fact you describe perfectly what the Iranians want. I think one needs to enforce much closer looks, and make a decision whther one accepts a nuclear armed iran - then go ahead as usual, or wether one accepts that not - then I expect a need for small nukes to take out too deeply-buried key installations. I hate the perspective, but this option might be the price of preventing Iranian nukes by waging war.

Just one thing will not work, not now and not in the future: sitting on the EU's hands, hoping for the best, not knowing what one wants, and doing nothing. That is exactly what has limited the West to just these two options: accepting nukes in Iran - or using nukes in Iran to prevent them. With conventional means alone, this is not to be acchieved. If there will be a war, i would not agree on it if it only is to buy time. The goal then must be to destroy that program once and forever.

[SUBMAN1]

Hey Skybird - weren't you just criticizing the US about 6 months ago for the idea that we may need to do something with Iran? I'm detecting a flip/flop going on here.

-S

[Ishmael]

Of course, It may also have something to do with this recent development:

http://www.energybulletin.net/40371.html


The long-delayed Iranian Oil Bourse (IOB) will start operations on Sunday, the official Iranian news agency IRNA said, citing the country's oil minister.
The exchange, based on the Gulf island of Kish, a free trade zone, opens with a whimper, rather than the promised roar. The IOB has long been touted by Iranian news agencies (http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=37468&sectionid=351020103) as a petrobourse for petroleum, petrochemicals and gas in various non-dollar currencies, primarily the euro, which would have a negative impact on the US economy and financial system. Yet trading will start on the bourse with two or three petrochemical products and Iranian rials will be used for all transactions.
Iran, the second-largest producer in OPEC, was originally expected to start its own oil-trading market in 2005. Yet the exchange has missed at least three announced opening dates and was further delayed by the complete elimination of internet connectivity to the country, which sparked conspiracy theories (http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/middle-east-internet-interruption-looks/story.aspx?guid=6FD0D324-8FF9-4900-BCA9-614914BA3E87&dist=SecMostCommented) over who would have felt threatened enough to cut the cables. The success of the bourse depends on unlikely cooperation with other OPEC members as well as a much-needed consensus from Gulf States.

IIRC, wasn't Saddam going to open one of these trading only in Euros right before we invaded?

[Skybird]

Of course, It may also have something to do with this recent development:

http://www.energybulletin.net/40371.html

Hinting at such things since long, but have not seen it in combination with the JRC estimations, since that is an institution delegated to the european commission.

---

My internet provider is about to terminate the cable link sometime this weekened, probably, and the new one will not switch on before tuesday or later next week. If my old call-by-call telephone modem does not work anymore, I will be away for some time. ;) With the new one I already have problems before the treaty evens begins - after four looser telephone companies in a row, this sets a new record. :nope:

[Herr_Pete]

Wow,1 or 2 weapons. As soon as it becomes public ( no doubt it will ) i dont want to think what america wil have aimed at them:o can't for get israel. they will have the lot aimed at iran. With a finger hovering over the fire button.

[Foxtrot]

we yet need to find those eeeevvvviiiiiilllllll and bbbbbaaaaadddddd Iraqi Weapons of Mass Destruction from north, south, east and west of Baghdad

[STEED]

Iran Could Have Enough Uranium for a Bomb by Year's End

New simulations carried out by European Union experts come to an alarming conclusion: Iran could have enough highly enriched uranium to build an atomic bomb by the end of this year.


Big deal lets run in to the night screaming off the top of our heads doing a mass panic routine. Care to note European Union which is far more corrupt than Iran, and that is saying somthing. :stare:

They know that total to total nuclear war is a no win situation meaning that really is going to mess up there plans for world domination. This is a clear cut case the EU is up to no good and is planning to pull another stinking lie out of it's stinking vile corrupt nest of vipers.

People of Europe the real and dangerous threat is the EU, they have picked up where Adolf Hitler left off. Bewared they are planning mass in enslavement and you will fall for there lies. Well I say all, which is not strictly true, but most will. It may or may not happen in your time but if you got kids it could happen in there time think about it.

[Skybird]

Iran Could Have Enough Uranium for a Bomb by Year's End

New simulations carried out by European Union experts come to an alarming conclusion: Iran could have enough highly enriched uranium to build an atomic bomb by the end of this year.


Big deal lets run in to the night screaming off the top of our heads doing a mass panic routine. Care to note European Union which is far more corrupt than Iran, and that is saying somthing. :stare:

They know that total to total nuclear war is a no win situation meaning that really is going to mess up there plans for world domination. This is a clear cut case the EU is up to no good and is planning to pull another stinking lie out of it's stinking vile corrupt nest of vipers.

People of Europe the real and dangerous threat is the EU, they have picked up where Adolf Hitler left off. Bewared they are planning mass in enslavement and you will fall for there lies. Well I say all, which is not strictly true, but most will. It may or may not happen in your time but if you got kids it could happen in there time think about it.
The threat is not nukes being fired from Iran. the thread is nukes that they sell, or hand around - the ones that start world travels in unidentified containers, for example, or make an appearance in Al Quaeda'S new propaganda video.

[STEED]

Don't trust what the EU tells you. :yep:

[DeepIron]

The threat is not nukes being fired from Iran. the thread is nukes that they sell, or hand around
They do have a background check and a mandatory waiting period tho'...

http://www.northrim.net/jhouck/images/sm_waiting.jpg



Right next to the sign that reads:

http://www.northrim.net/jhouck/images/must_be_evil.jpg

[Ishmael]

Why are we worried about Iran, who doesn't even have a nuclear weapon, and not about Pakistan who:

1. Already possess nuclear weapons.

2. Acquired them through the Pakistani ISI who funded the A.Q.Khan smuggling network.

3.created and funded the Taliban and provided them with safe haven in Waziristan.

4. worked with the aforementioned A.Q.Khan network, Turkish intelligence services, AIPAC, the Russian/Israeli mob and high officials in the US government, the democratic and republican parties to penetrate and obtain nuclear information and technology from the US Nuclear Weapons programs at Los Alamos and Livemore.

Here are some links to Sibel Edmonds interviews:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Cm-uRQmfUU (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Cm-uRQmfUU)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DHnIyGWEz_Y (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DHnIyGWEz_Y)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OQkx1246_d8 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OQkx1246_d8)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ZSujyVe5nI (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ZSujyVe5nI)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=52P_ur9F8ag (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=52P_ur9F8ag)

There are many more links on youtube. The material is out there.

[DeepIron]

Nah, I don't worry about Pakistan....

[Telephone ringing... ringing... ringing... ringing... finally picked up]

Customer support person (with a heavy accent): Hello and many greetings to you! My name is Bob. May I have your name and account number please?

Radical Muslim (with accent): Er, what? No, you may not have my name, infidel defiler! I just have a question about this warhead? Ok?

CS Bob: I'm very sorry sir. Do you have an account with us?

RM: No! Well, er, I did once. But that was a long time ago... I haven't used it in a while...

CS Bob: That is perfectly fine sir. If you would give me your name, I can look it up in our database...

RM: [curses in Arabic] All right. If that's the only way you can help me. Osama bin Laden. Little "b", capital "L". I had my account about 15 years ago.

CS Bob: Thank you Mr. bin Laden. Just a moment while I get your account information.

[Pakistani elevator music plays] 10 minutes later...

TS Bob: Thank you for holding sir. I have your account information. How may I assist you?

RM: Geez, it took long enough! I'm on my cell and this is costing me. Whaddayou guys use for a database? Microsoft?

CS Bob: Many apologies sir. I do not know what we use. I am just accessing your file from my terminal.

RM: It's probably a Microsoft product. Their crap is everywhere. Should be using Oracle...

CS Bob: Yes sir.

RM: Anyway I've got a nuclear bomb from your country and I can't get it to detonate and I need some help.

CS Bob: Very good sir. What model is the bomb you are having trouble with?

RM: Model? Criminy, I don't know. It's one of the smaller models I guess.

CS Bob: I will need the model number sir.

RM: Model number! geez... Ok, ok. Where is it located?

CS Bob: Well sir, depending on the model, it could be in one of several places. I can describe the location...

RM: [interruptng] Hey wait, look... this thing is round, kinda shaped like a beer can, painted in black and yellow stripes and is about 3 feet high with a button box on top. Does that help?

CS Bob: Yes, thank you sir. Please hold while I get some information.

[Pakistani elevator plays in the background] 5 minutes later...

CS Bob:Thank you for holding Mr. bin Laden. I am thinking you have a Shiva Model Type AX1129. That is the only model we've had with a button box on the top.

RM: Ok, so now can you help me? I mean I've tried everything and I just can't get this puppy to blow...

CS Bob: I will need the serial number please.

RM: What? Serial number! Man this really getting me steamed! All I want is a little information and it's like your putting me through a CIA interrogation at Guantanamo Bay. Geez...

CS Bob: [coldly formal] Pardon me SIR... I am trying to help you but I must have certain information to do so. The Shiva Model Type AX1129 was a mid-year run and there were changes made in the firing order sequencer. That is why I now need the serial number.

RM: Alright, alright. <sigh> Where is the serial number? Man this is more trouble than it's worth...

CS Bob: The serial number of the Shiva Model Type Ax1129 thermonuclear device is located on a small metal tag, attached to the cylinder, riveted just below the button box.

RM: Ok, just a minute, the bomb is in the other room. Can you hold a moment and I'll get the number. Just a sec...

[puts phone down and stomps off muttering in Arabic under his breath]

[a moment later]

RM: [picking up the phone] There's no tag. It's been removed...

CS Bob: That is unfortunate sir. I can only assist you if I have the proper information. Without the serial number, I cannot help you further. However our Technical Support Department can assist you.

RM: [exasperated] Oh for crying out loud! I can't believe this. Oh, alright then. Tranfer me to your technical support department will ya?

CS Bob: I'm sorry sir, you will have to call back tomorrow. Our technical support department is closed for the day. I can give you the num...

RM: [issuing a string of strong oaths in Arabic]: Forget it son of a diarrheatic camel! ! I've wasted too much time trying to get this piece of cr*p working and I can't call back tomorrow! Thanks for nothing! This'll be the last time I use a Pakistani weapon I'll tell you! I knew we should have gone Russian on this! Look "Bob", I know a lot people and there's no way I'll ever recommend your nukes again!

[slams phone]

[Ishmael]

That's really quite funny.

[DeepIron]

Glad you liked it Ishmael... ;)

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7261040.stm

How much longer will the Iranian people continue to put up with this guy? Yet another round of sanctions... If they would just allow the inspectors to do their job and quit butting heads with the West, things would probably work out...

http://www.northrim.net/jhouck/images/ahmadinejad.jpg