In this corner, "President" Musharraf

[Onkel Neal]

Pakistani authorities began a round up of 1,500 opponents from the military, judiciary and opposition parties, according to media and police sources, one day after Musharraf suspended the country's constitution and dismissed the chief justice.

Where are the human shields when we really need them?

Despite Bush's stated intention of fostering democracy in these type of dictatorships, the choice was made to support Musharraf (our most important ally in the war on terrorTM) out of sheer necessity, to stage the overthrow of the Taliban in Afghanistan. Now this. Where will this lead? Could this end up as a more militant Islamic Pakistan? Will the Taliban end up siezing power by proxy (I'm guessing they have a lot of sway with the militants)? Is Bhutto a legitimate threat to anchor some kind of real democracy in Pakistan, the non-extremist type? Will a cornered Musharraf ignite a wave of repression and bloodshed? What impact will this have on Bush's plan to run for a third term?

This whole episode reminds me of 1978. Can we please get our hostages (err, diplomates/spies) out now?


With respects to the other Pakistan thread. (http://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showthread.php?t=124508)

[Skybird]

I'm surprised. A thread like this - from you, Neal? :D

It's the choice between plague and cholera:

Give democracy to Pakistan, and the Islamic movement will take over the country, sooner or later.

Resist the Islamic movement and try to hold it down, and the price for that is dictatorship. It would make the pressure rising under the bed, adding monsters to the crowd with every night passing.

So, no matter the scenario, democracy has no bright future in Pakistan. It will only be a temporary symptom - eventually.

The red mosque incident, the judges rebelling against Musharaf, the worstening security situation, the constant border traficking, the further weakening of Musharaf by Bhutto's comeback, the supreme court overshadowing Musharaf's election ambitions, the internal conspiracies in the ISI and the military, and the massive sympathy of the latter two for the Taleban - all this were and are signals that Pakistan must be regarded as one of the most dangerous hotspots of today's world, and that the bomb already is ticking. I just can't tell you what the counter is reading.

But I can tell you that it is high time to win distance to Pakistan. Good relations with India is far more important for us. I rank it's importance as high as that of China. Pakistan is, in the end, a hostile nobody for us, an their only voice in world politics is their nuclear bomb, and their top export hit: their Quranic schools supplying the Islamic and non-Islamic world with a neverending stream of Islamic fanatics.

Musharaf personally never was of interest for me, that's why I always spoke of Pakistan, not of Musharaf. He had come, and he will go. the situation he entered and leaves behind, will remain.

The Bushish project of a "beacon of democracy" in the ME always has been a self-decepetion, and illusion. It cannot work and will never work, thus it is doomed to fail - always. It is not enough to have fertile seeds - you also need a fertile field, and suitable weather, and a competent farmer. The latter three conditions are not fulfilled. In an Islamic world, democracy always will lead to islam climbing to power - legally, and thus irresistably. See Egypt. See Iran. See Palestinians. In Islam, democracy simply has not the meaning and importance as it once had for us in the West - it just is a tool to secure enough power to finally overthrow the freedoms democracy is about, and replace them with Islam. These freedoms and islam are mutually exclusive. It is not freedom over Islam - it is Islam over freedom. It wants to rule, nothing less.

End of Islam lesson from me. Promised! ;) Wer Ohren hat, zu hören...

On the poll: no vote, I just can't say at this time. In the long run, the Islamic factions probably will win, in the immediate future, Musharaf maybe could win another handful of years to keep them down. But these imminent years - are an open game, and far from being a safe match. I am just sure that if Buttho is making it into power - it will play into the hands of the Islamists, ironically. that's why I am against her, no matter how democratic she appears to be. Remember that before the went into exile, corruption and nepotism was blossoming in her government. She is no saint.

[Torplexed]

My advice is simple. Make sure there are ample paper shredders at the embassy and that they are of the cross-cut variety. ;)

[Lurchi]

I voted #3 - because this is what i hope will happen. Benazir Bhutto was rightfully elected by the People of Pakistan before being kicked out because of unproven allegation such as corruption. I think some of the old elites were just against her because of her social reforms and well ... she is a woman.

The fact that an islamic country voted for a female Prime Minister is proof enough that Pakistan and its people cannot be simply turned down as just another archaic islamic society - this country is different. To me it is pretty obvious that she has strong support among the ordinary people of Pakistan.

She must be a remarkably courageous person: Even though the Al-Quaed terrorists threatened her with death she nonetheless returned from Exile to her homecountry. To me it is pretty obvious that she deserves maximum support ...

[DanCanovas]

Pakistani authorities began a round up of 1,500 opponents from the military, judiciary and opposition parties, according to media and police sources, one day after Musharraf suspended the country's constitution and dismissed the chief justice.

Where are the human shields when we really need them?

Despite Bush's stated intention of fostering democracy in these type of dictatorships, the choice was made to support Musharraf (our most important ally in the war on terrorTM) out of sheer necessity, to stage the overthrow of the Taliban in Afghanistan. Now this. Where will this lead? Could this end up as a more militant Islamic Pakistan? Will the Taliban end up siezing power by proxy (I'm guessing they have a lot of sway with the militants)? Is Bhutto a legitimate threat to anchor some kind of real democracy in Pakistan, the non-extremist type? Will a cornered Musharraf ignite a wave of repression and bloodshed? What impact will this have on Bush's plan to run for a third term?

This whole episode reminds me of 1978. Can we please get our hostages (err, diplomates/spies) out now?


With respects to the other Pakistan thread. (http://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showthread.php?t=124508)


I didnt think you could run for a 3rd term in the US?

[Skybird]

I voted #3 - because this is what i hope will happen.

Interesting attitude to the poll question - which asked what you consider to be likely to happen over there. You answered with a wish instead.

You can wish for one thing, nevertheless eventually realise that another outcome is more realistic. So the follow-up question to you would be if you think your wish is likely to come true.

[Jimbuna]

No 1....A leopard never changes it's spots, or it's ways :nope:

[mapuc]

What about their nukes? If the Islamic should gain power

Markus

[Ishmael]

That's why I think it is so important to watch this documentary if you haven't already seen it, Simcha Jacobovici's "Quest For The Lost Tribe".

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0246878/

Produced in 1997-8 and released in 1999 by award-winning documentary filmaker Simcha Jacobovici, now producing "The Naked Archaeologist" series for the History Channel, it deals with the lost tribes of the Israelites, scattered by the Babylonians 3000 years ago.

Jacobovici had produced a documentary about the Falashas, the Ethiopian Jews in 1991. After it's release, he was contacted by a rabbi who said he had discovered people practicing Jewish traditions in the Golden Triangle Area of northern Burma/Thailand/southern China. So he decides to try to find all of the ten lost tribes of Israel using nothing but his knowledge as an archaeologist and biblical scholar and the Old Testament as a guide. Over the course of the program, he finds tribal remnants of Israelite populations in Burma, India, Tunisia and the Tribal region of Southern Afghanistan/Pakistani Northwest Frontier. Specifically, he links the Shinwari, Afridi, Ruveni and Gadun tribes to the Israelite tribes of Simeon, Ephraim, Reuven and Gad.

He also examines the Pushtun-Wali, the Law of the Pushtuns or Pathans, that predates Islam and compares it to Old Testament Torah and finds it eerily similar. He does most of this by actually traveling around the area in the time frame where the Taliban are taking over.

It's an incredible historical document which, if it can be proven(can you say DNA testing), could change the entire dynamic of the area and the Middle East on one stroke. For if his thesis is correct and can be proven, it would mean every member of those tribes, some six million strong, are all entitled under Israeli law to "The Right of Return".

Here's another link to some commentary on the program:

http://www.nazarite.net/discovery/lost-tribes.html

[Zayphod]

What about their nukes? If the Islamic should gain power

Markus

<sarcasm>Get the CIA to find out who has the knowledge, and give them the option to get those people out of the country or terminate them, destroy any and all things that hold that information so when the crazy people take over, they won't have that knowledgebase available to them.</sarcasm>

BTW, I said that with the sarcasm tags for a reason, but I just wonder if that is seriously being considered at the CIA. It wouldn't surprise me.

[mapuc]

What about their nukes? If the Islamic should gain power

Markus

<sarcasm>Get the CIA to find out who has the knowledge, and give them the option to get those people out of the country or terminate them, destroy any and all things that hold that information so when the crazy people take over, they won't have that knowledgebase available to them.</sarcasm>

BTW, I said that with the sarcasm tags for a reason, but I just wonder if that is seriously being considered at the CIA. It wouldn't surprise me.

One thing I know for sure, is that the government(US) is monitoring the situation very carefully and if needed, they will take some special unit from Iraq and/or/Afghanistan to take contol over the Pakistans nukes.

Markus

[Skybird]

Estimates are they have around 45-50 nukes, and I would not assume they store them all in one place.

I would not put too much trust into conventional military options either - when these options have had 6, and 4 years time to demonstrate their inability to gain control of lesser threats in Iraq and Afghanistan. Lacking success should teach us some more modesty, don't you think? ;) Also, pakistan, as well as Iran, would be a far more difficult target to strike, or raid.

[DeepIron]

http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1680931,00.html?cnn=yes

Interesting Time article regarding the current state of US/Pakistani relations...

[CCIP]

It's the choice between plague and cholera

You nailed it right there! I don't think I can say anything beyond that; I can see it going either way at this point, but both available ways are not good. "Velvet revolution?" - not in that country. You can't get very velvety when extremism has been allowed to spread so far.

[Stealth Hunter]

GUYS!

If you have CNN, turn to it RIGHT NOW.

Musharraf is starting to arrest those who oppose him in a major scale, now. I guess a couple of people have been shot and killed already. Several others have been beaten, and more have been taken off by the police.

http://edition.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/asiapcf/11/04/pakistan/?iref=mpstoryview

[Foxtrot]

As I see that Benazir is not innocent either. She and her husband (aka Mr 10%) are involved in numerous financial scandals. Poland, France, Switzerland and UAE gave enough proofs related to their corrpution.
"Al-Zulfikar" terrorist group was ran by one of her brothers.
I seriously don't think that the rich girl is interested in country and its people. She probably wants to increase her bank balance a bit more.

One of her pretty and yummy family member talks (http://www.dawn.com/2007/10/22/nat3.htm) about her :hmm:

[Foxtrot]

One thing I know for sure, is that the government(US) is monitoring the situation very carefully and if needed, they will take some special unit from Iraq and/or/Afghanistan to take contol over the Pakistans nukes.

Markus

sounds like a nice plot for B-class Hollywood movie.

Any recommendation for actors? :p

[Happy Times]

What about their nukes? If the Islamic should gain power

Markus

That is the sum of all fears.

[Skybird]

"The fact of the matter is the Iranians may get 2.6 kilograms of highly enriched uranium," Biden said. "The Pakistanis have hundreds, thousands of kilograms of highly enriched uranium." Then he asked: "What is the greatest threat to the United States of America: 2.6 kilograms of highly enriched uranium in Tehran or an out-of-control Pakistan? It's not close."
(...)
Notorious autocrats such as Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak have returned -- after some initial and short-lived concessions to democratic protocol -- to ruthlessly suppressing every form of opposition. Criticism from Washington has been muted at best. The current situation in Pakistan is once again revealing to the world America's strategic shortcomings when it comes to promoting democracy in the region.


http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,515647,00.html

"Autocrats have returned." Okay, you must not like it. But what is the alternative? Democratically allowing Islamists into power?

Better prefer the autocrats, then. The alternative we cannot afford. That maybe is not nice. It maybe also is not just. And maybe it is not fair also.

But it is realistic.

[Onkel Neal]

So what is happening in Pakistan? (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/7087570.stm)

Mock conflict? When did revolution and insurrection become wrestling? :)

[Skybird]

Pakistan is a mirror inside a mirror inside a mirror. In them, even looks can kill.

[Lurchi]

I still don't see a connection between free elections and a resulting islamist party government.

Those demonstrating attorneys and judges don't look like fundamentalists to me - more like well educated and therefore privileged citizens being pi$$ed by the fact that their constitution and right to vote was "suspended" for more than dubious reasons.

[Jimbuna]

I've never seen Imran Khan move as fast since he was last in the outfield during a Lords Test Match. (cricket to you heathens) ;)

[Onkel Neal]

I still don't see a connection between free elections and a resulting islamist party government.

Those demonstrating attorneys and judges don't look like fundamentalists to me - more like well educated and therefore privileged citizens being pi$$ed by the fact that their constitution and right to vote was "suspended" for more than dubious reasons.

That's what I've been thinking. Sure, there are sizeable factions of Islamic extremists in Pakistan, but I'm not sold that if they hold elections, it will turn into another Iran. Possible, but we'll have to take that risk, it's their country.

Latest news item, Musharraf vows elections will continue in January. Paging Florida state election officials, paging Florida state election officials, please bring your maginfying glasses as well.

[Dan D]

Law professor Andrew Hammel from Houston, Texas, who teaches American law to students in Germany, has received an email from a former colleague of his from Pakistan:
http://andrewhammel.typepad.com/german_joys/2007/11/update-from-pak.html

"... and take up the cause of the independence and restoration of the Pakistani judiciary at whatever level you can. It is important that Benazir Bhutto not been seen and heard as the main representative of the pro-democracy, secular minded civil society of Pakistan. The Pakistan Bar Council and the other lawyers’ associations are all united in opposing elections without the restoration of the judiciary. They must be heard. I will try and stay in touch though there are daily raids to pick up lawyers considered troublesome."

[Skybird]

You guys forget one thing. The head of their highest court who was battleing against Musharaf since years, and has been sacked one year ago, and was demanded back into power - is a known fundamentalist Muhammedan. He was demanded back into power by those lawyers and judges, who in the past have made very many sentences and calls in favour of islamic rules, and opposing Musharaf's "friendship" with the US. They may say "in the name of freedom and democracy", but what they really mean is "freedom as defined by Quranic law" and that is something totally different. and last but not least, this highly artificial creation the natiojn of Pakistan is - has been designed around and founded on Islamic principles, not Western or democratic ones.

When will shortsighted opportunism that does not lead beyond idealism and the immediate moment finally end? Have you guys learned nothing from the creeping mavement of Turkey towards fundamentalism, and the slow death of Kemalism? Egypt, anyone? Marocco? Algeria? The Palestinians? Iran? Indonesia? The raising of fundamentalism's ugly violent face everyhwere?

Are you really think that a push of any of these countries towards fundamentalism is being planned for and will be acchieved by just one election - the next one? And things are bright and safe if the next one will not show fundamentalists acchieving 55% of the votes immediately? Has nobody taken into account that a mere participation of fundamentlaists in law-making procedures is suffieint to pave the road for an ongoing Islmamization of a society? Look at turkey. Last but not least look at the deeply flawed US policy towards Pakistan for the past 35 years. Shortsightend opportunism, day to day living - no strategic realistic perspective. Where as our opponent thinks in centuries (now he plans in deacdes) in order to acchieve the strategic objective he wants to accheive - making the West it'S own, our nations and some of you people as well plan in months, years, an election term at best, and where your idealistic calls for "democracy in action" superficially have been met (in past years having STRENGHTENED fundamentalists, not weakening them in favour of democrats!) , you stop thinking, loose interest, and turn away, assuming that now everything is good.

but it is not you needing to face the longterm consequences of allowing fundamentlaists infleuncing laws and social life more and more through slowly improving their positions legally and democratically, but your children and children's children. Neither emotional calls nor calm arguments of reason, or hinting at historic examples and even recent political events worry you.

where neither reason nor emotion nor reflection makes people think beyond the immediate moment, it seems there is no remedy left. some of you mean it well, I'm sure. But you are well-meaning up to rejection of reality, trying to wish things for the better, assuming elections are a magic wand, and when you swing it, the fairy queen appears and all what is hard and ugly and unfriendly in the world, will just dissappear. This self-deception is what decides your fall, and in the end for many it is only an excuse not needing to raise and start a fight by their own vote, hand, action, deed. Phlagmatism it is called. So why should one even care anymore to defend you, since you even do not have the wish to be defended? If you want an islamic world, go ahead - pave islam the way by holding elections everywhere. that way, islam can legally grow in power and strength, with you by your own rules and laws being forbidden to oppose islam that way. Your own rules and procedures are being turned against you, you own constitutions prohibit you from self-defense. Here at the latest healthy reason would start to ask questions and analyse one's doubts. but you promise just to go on in the way that has brought us to this time and situation, and has helped to make Islam strong. More of the same, please! And when the pet you have feeded turns against you - and it will, I bet my lifetime's saving on that - and starts to bite, you will roll your eyes and look up to the sky and down to the ground, assuming you couldn't have known it. but you could have known it. You just didn't look far ahead enough in time - so the later outcome hits you by surprise.

Thats what is called "Blowback". at the time it hits you, it will be too late.

You think all this has nothing to do with Pakistan? And I am out of boundary of this thread?

Think twice.

[The WosMan]

I think the main thing here is if Pakistan does indeed turn into a situation similar to Iran back in the 1970s that we don't have a dryball president in office who doesn't do anything about it like Carter. The thing that really makes me worry is the fact that Pakistan is already a nuclear power. The world cannot afford to see Islamists take that country over. I for once agree with Skybird (holy hell) but I would rather take a dictator like Musharraf then watching an Ayatolla walk into power via elections. The Islamists are already master chess players and pros at using our own systems and ways against us.....this is one more step.

We have been trying to court the Islamists through diplomatic means for some time over there and trying to do it any way possible to avoid violence and putting pressure on Musharraf to do the same. This has failed as these folks only have a single minded ambition to get it and convert everyone to their way of thinking or die trying. Perhaps it is time we give them their wish. I hate to sound this way but deep down inside I can't help but think that what Musharraf needs to do is to round up the Islamists and make those folks disappear quietly. The only way to stop these people is to kill them.

[Jimbuna]

Islamists and nuclear weapons....one hell of a mixture, a recipe for disaster http://imgcash1.imageshack.us/img265/4009/shockedyi3.gif

[Onkel Neal]

ANALYSIS-Musharraf's wobbles fuel predictions of downfall (http://www.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUSISL244024)

[Tchocky]

I hate to sound this way but deep down inside I can't help but think that what Musharraf needs to do is to round up the Islamists and make those folks disappear quietly. The only way to stop these people is to kill them.
Sounds like an instant reciupe for Making Things Worse :-?

[Skybird]

I hate to sound this way but deep down inside I can't help but think that what Musharraf needs to do is to round up the Islamists and make those folks disappear quietly. The only way to stop these people is to kill them.
Sounds like an instant reciupe for Making Things Worse :-?
While leaving them untouched sounds like making things worse.

[Tchocky]

Allah be praised there are more than two options...

[Skybird]

Yes. We could kindly beg them to reform what by the most superior law there is in man's world is not allowed to be reformed, changed, deleted, supplemented, questioned, asked, analysed - but which is commanded to be taken as it is. :up: Good luck. Hope you are Hindu, since you will need another several dozens of lives to see it happen.

[Jimbuna]

Allah be praised there are more than two options...

Yep, kill, kill, or be killed :hmm: