China - A Titanic heading towards its Iceberg?

[SUBMAN1]

Heard on the radio this morning some eye opening things about this country. China seems to be in deep trouble in the coming decade due to multiple issues. One of those biggest issues has to do with their 1 child policy. This is causing problems on multiple fronts, not least being that there are no longer enough women in the country. Parents will kill of girl born in favor of trying again for a boy, and they even bribe their doctors (against the law) to tell them the sex prior to birth so that they may opt for an abortion if need be. I've heard this before, but I didn't hear of the consequences of such actions - in the next 10 years, there will be over 30 million men (To put this into perspective - Canada's entire population) and growing expenentially without the ability to marry - there will be no wifes for them! On top of this, the 1 child policy has created the majority population problem that will be over the age of 65 by this time, withless than half the entire population of the country under the age of 65 - and Chinas leaders have no idea how to combat this major issue. Most western countries have age population problems from the baby boomers, but Chinas problem is insane, and makes the Western world's problem minor in comparrison.

The results of the above 2 have caused a couple more issues even - One being that companies are wary of investing in China now, when a decade ago, you couldn't get them to stop investing in this country. This is beginning to create work shortages to those wishing to enter the cities work forces, with no jobs available to them. The second is that it has caused a brain drain. The brain drain is so bad, that over 2/3'rds of the students who go overseas to study, never return!

Things have got so bad, that China's leadership is up in arms about what to do about it. Go figure.

I haven't even begun to touch on the environmental problems they are also facing.

This is strange to hear when all I ever hear about this country is how big an economic powerhouse they have begun - that seems it will be a fleeting moment in time after listening to this.

-S

[geetrue]

Sounds like a cold country to come back to, especially if you are a student and watch the news
and find out that your country has been lying to you for x amount of years.

Then it gets real cold to go back to. People love freedom once they taste it.

As for China's needs whatever they need now they are going to need more later.

It's almost like they need a war or a famine to sweep the country ...

Looking at history in hindsight that is.

[samniTe]

maybe their best bet is expansion ;o

their army is the size of our population D;

[Heibges]

Heard on the radio this morning some eye opening things about this country. China seems to be in deep trouble in the coming decade due to multiple issues. One of those biggest issues has to do with their 1 child policy. This is causing problems on multiple fronts, not least being that there are no longer enough women in the country. Parents will kill of girl born in favor of trying again for a boy, and they even bribe their doctors (against the law) to tell them the sex prior to birth so that they may opt for an abortion if need be. I've heard this before, but I didn't hear of the consequences of such actions - in the next 10 years, there will be over 30 million men (To put this into perspective - Canada's entire population) and growing expenentially without the ability to marry - there will be no wifes for them! On top of this, the 1 child policy has created the majority population problem that will be over the age of 65 by this time, withless than half the entire population of the country under the age of 65 - and Chinas leaders have no idea how to combat this major issue. Most western countries have age population problems from the baby boomers, but Chinas problem is insane, and makes the Western world's problem minor in comparrison.

The results of the above 2 have caused a couple more issues even - One being that companies are wary of investing in China now, when a decade ago, you couldn't get them to stop investing in this country. This is beginning to create work shortages to those wishing to enter the cities work forces, with no jobs available to them. The second is that it has caused a brain drain. The brain drain is so bad, that over 2/3'rds of the students who go overseas to study, never return!

Things have got so bad, that China's leadership is up in arms about what to do about it. Go figure.

I haven't even begun to touch on the environmental problems they are also facing.

This is strange to hear when all I ever hear about this country is how big an economic powerhouse they have begun - that seems it will be a fleeting moment in time after listening to this.

-S

Yep. You can't have a "modern" country, without a modern form of government to go with it. It's like building a statue with feet of clay.

[elite_hunter_sh3]

let them wither with age... who needs a giant country stealing millions of jobs that are suposed to go to hard working europeans and North Americans....:shifty:

[tycho102]

China seems to be in deep trouble in the coming decade due to multiple issues.
China is in the equivalent of America's 1890's. They've got a massive "Louisana Purchase" of untamed rural area to cope, exploding population, stock market speculation ("robber barons"), industralization. Plus they have to deal with all the modern era issues with electrical production and transmission, international commerce, the intratubes, satellite surveillance, corporate espionage, copyright laws.


Their male-dominated population is rapidly becoming a significant issue. I'm not entirely sure what the actual solution is but I have a few ideas of my own. One way or another, it's a cultural issue that they will have to directly* address before they can indirectly address.





* the use of physical force

[P_Funk]

Sounds like a cold country to come back to, especially if you are a student and watch the news
and find out that your country has been lying to you for x amount of years.

Then it gets real cold to go back to. People love freedom once they taste it.
I think you underestimate the powers of indictrination. I've spoken with enough chinese immigrant children to my country to see that they have love for China rooted into their brains. One girl I knew in first year uni was entirely white washed, I mean not a trace of an accent and she was real pretty and wore very hip clothing etc... Well me and a freind were sitting there talking about stuff, I guess it was ideologies and dictators and we mentioned Mau and she got all defensive about him. She said he did alot of great things for China. So me and my freind in a style that begs for the camera call-and-answered back and forth things baout Mau that were bad and how it diminished his country. Well rather than come back with a scathing criticism of our ideas she just put her hands on her ears, spoke desperately "I can't stand this", and ran away. I mean RAN.

This girl is barely connected to her former homeland and she's still totally full of crap. And I've seen others like her too. The truth to many people from China is whatever they were taught before they could walk.

[geetrue]

So me and my freind in a style that begs for the camera call-and-answered back and forth things baout Mau that were bad and how it diminished his country. Well rather than come back with a scathing criticism of our ideas she just put her hands on her ears, spoke desperately "I can't stand this", and ran away. I mean RAN.


That's an interesting observation ... I think you can multiply this personality with tens of millions of other people that don't want to hear the truth.

They don't want to believe that what they believe is a lie.

Because of her naturalness we can see what a spirit of lie really looks like.

[Heibges]

Or maybe folks just want to feel "great".

You could say the same thing about Stalin in Russia. After 60 years of programmed "De-Stalinization", he is more popular than ever.

Fact of the matter is that Mao got Westerners out of China, and that goes a long way.

Look at India. They would much rather build weapons than feed their own people.

You could even say folks feel much the same about Reagan. He moved all our jobs overseas, and killed the family farm, but he made America feel "great".

You have to wonder what the Germans really feel about Hitler?

[P_Funk]

Or maybe folks just want to feel "great".

You could say the same thing about Stalin in Russia. After 60 years of programmed "De-Stalinization", he is more popular than ever.

Fact of the matter is that Mao got Westerners out of China, and that goes a long way.

Look at India. They would much rather build weapons than feed their own people.

You could even say folks feel much the same about Reagan. He moved all our jobs overseas, and killed the family farm, but he made America feel "great".

You have to wonder what the Germans really feel about Hitler? I think that you make an error is considering Mao, Stalin, and Hitler all as equivalent. True they were all tyrants of the 20th Century but Hitler is not a national figure that is celebrated and sold in memorabilia and Stalin is regarded in a different way that Mao. China is the only nation of the three that still encorporates the cult of personality for Mao into its mandatory culture for all citizens. The practises of indoctrination are still present and he is regarded as a hero for the people. Now you can make whatever claims about the ruthless efficiency of Stalin but peope still recognize his true colours. The general feeling of Mao I get from delusional Chinese people is that he never did anything wrong. It was not that I denied he didn't do anything good that sent that girl running, it was the mountain of bad that I accused him of that she couldn't even contemplate. These three leaders were blurred together in our own propogandistic attempts to rally nationalism in our fights against them. But the reality is that they are all three distinct cultures and three distinct leaders that share only a timeframe with one another.

In the other thread about Hiroshima we talk about the good and evil of the decisions that the leaders made and how we understand the the difficulty of it. There is no grey in Mao's following. He is a clear cut demi-god figure and you don't question it. This isn't affection out of reason but a learned passion that isn't rational and is instinctually embedded in childhood far beyond recollection.

Thats my attempt at sounding like a Poli sci/sociology major.

[Heibges]

I agree about the cult of personality in China. Whether Mao happens to be in or out of favor, he is the founder of the PRC, so they have to build their legitimacy upon him. Much like Stalin first built the Cult of Lenin just so that he could later build the Cult of Stalin upon it. And then you have this wave revisitionist historians trying to say that Lenin was just a swell guy, especially compared to Stalin.

I'm not saying they are the equivalent, just that the types of endeavors they embarked upon made them very popular with their populations, despite other heinous acts they may have committed.

Those guys were popular for many of the same reason George Washington is popular in America.

I know a lot of Chinese folks here in San Francisco, and the scary things I hear from them is not so much that he didn't do anything wrong, but that they don't perceive what he did as wrong. But maybe that's the same thing?

But the idea that if 5 million folks had to die to free China from opium then so be it, is a fairly common opinion amongst Chinese immigrants that I know.

Mao accomplished what the Boxers had been unable to a hundred years before: getting the Westerners out.

This sort of makes him the George Washington of China.

[P_Funk]

This sort of makes him the George Washington of China.
Cept George washington then didn't walk up to Thomas Edison and shoot him in the head while sending the population of Harvard to work in the fields.:doh:

[Takeda Shingen]

Cept George washington then didn't walk up to Thomas Edison and shoot him in the head while sending the population of Harvard to work in the fields.:doh:

Especially since Edison was not born until 1847.

[August]

This sort of makes him the George Washington of China. Cept George washington then didn't walk up to Thomas Edison and shoot him in the head while sending the population of Harvard to work in the fields.:doh:

And Mao didn't voluntarily hand over the reigns of power to an elected sucessor after 8 years like Washington did either.

[P_Funk]

Cept George washington then didn't walk up to Thomas Edison and shoot him in the head while sending the population of Harvard to work in the fields.:doh:
Especially since Edison was not born until 1847.
It was the best I could think of. Give me a good 18th century american inventor then.:p

[Takeda Shingen]

Cept George washington then didn't walk up to Thomas Edison and shoot him in the head while sending the population of Harvard to work in the fields.:doh:
Especially since Edison was not born until 1847.
It was the best I could think of. Give me a good 18th century american inventor then.:p

Benjamin Franklin.

[Heibges]

NO, NOT BENJAMIN! :D

If a leader, is able to expel "the foreigner's", he is most likely to be pretty poplular with his population, was all I meant.

Look at Moses. His legend had lasted 3000 years.

[Rilder]

Sounds like there "Hawt asian chicks" are more attracted to americans and they don't wanna start giving all there wimminz to america so they mise well saboutage there race also as long as it stops americans from getting hawt asian chicks.

[peterloo]

Being a Chinese, mmm, I feel that some misunderstandings seems to place an obstacle between us

Last time, I wrote an essay, trying to settle down the problematic toys (products in general) problem (settle down IS NOT nullifying it) Seems that you guys are generous giving me chances to write argumentative essays... That's my strength
See http://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showthread.php?t=119711&page=2 (post 29) for interested parties :D

Topic 1: 1 child policy? Good or Evil
Should 1 child policy eliminated (I live in Hong Kong and excluded), I can predict Chinese population reach the 3 Billion mark right now. Imagine the face of Chinese leaders when the salvation comes (like the one in Great Leap Forward). That would totally eliminate the stability of the government and society, which comes first before the size of population. In fact, China doesn't have enough lands for 3 Billion people. :up:

Woman > Man is a trend that most of us observe. Unfortunately, traditional Chinese has a particular interest in man (I am not trying to devalue ladies in any way) and incidentally, when unmarried increase, the policy can even be more efficient as those unmarried won't give any burden in future generation as they don't have kids. This can be compared to a special interest of man by the Church. Knowing that man and woman are created equal by God, I don't understand why womans can't hold places within Church. :yep:

Topic 2: Brain Drain problem
It cannot be stopped. They've got choices. But in general, the education level of Chinese is constantly increasing, that's more important. So please don't say Chinese are illiterate. If they were illiterate, I wouldn't be using English to write this naggy essay but using Chinese instead. (lol) In fact, if we want to attract experts to stay in China, that's pretty easy to do. (by giving out benefits, for sure) :rock:


Topic 3: Enviromental problem
Aah! This oldie. Seems that those Americans like to attack us using this excuse / reason. While China has already "surpassed" U.S.A to be the largest CO2 releaser, I've to point out, counting the amount of release instead of the average release of CO2 per head is an abuse to satistics. There are 1.3 Billion people in China. That the more people, the more CO2 is widely accepted among all of us, however, U.S.A. still refuses to take this into account while they do their maths. Including the no. of people in China, I've to tell, unfortunately, USA is the highest CO2 releaser per man, and the "legacy" made by U.S.A. is still remain intact. Chinese needs to "work" many times harder before they can even surpass and become the "champion" in emission of CO2 :|\\

Topic 4 (by P_Funk): I'm sorry, I've to tell, admiring and loving the founder of a country and treating him/her as a hero is something general, even he made mistakes. :cool: French loves Napoleon, doesn't they? (sorry I forgot how to spell him, tell me if I spelt him wrongly) yet he declared wars and lost thousands of men. The same goes to Germans' homage to Bismarck, who united German states and built a strong army, initiated the second industrial revolution and turned German to a center in scientific growth. Unfortunately, Bismarck indirected caused the 1st world war, and his treatment of France (by isolation) is still remembered by many French. No sooner had you reviewed all the founders of countries then you would discover that all of them do make mistakes, but their name lives forever in peoples' mind. Founders arn't God. They do commit mistakes! Remember the tale of Washington who cut down his dad's tree! Being a Chinese, if you think Mao never did anything wrong, that's normal. If you are a French, and you think Napoleon is a hero, instead of a villian who slaghtered men in different wars, that's acceptable. Now, don't mess with Mao anymore. You can't justify yourself if we compare him to Napoleon, can you?

Finally, PLEASE, think twice before you post anymore concerning Chinese. :sunny: I don't want to write long, and you don't want to read naggy essays. Remember, I'm quite proficient in writing this type of essays :smug:

If you want to argue, argue rationally. Don't try to flame in any way. Notwithstanding those flammers, Neal may lock this post or even put a ban on you. Remember!

[peterloo]

Some people may try to argue, finding "loopholes" and try to eliminate the validity of my points. So, I reserve this thread for blocking those loopholes (by nullifying those attacking points)

(reserved)

[Onkel Neal]

Peterloo, thanks for sharing your perspective :yep:

The nationalist attitude of "who is our enemy, we have to have an enemy, let's see, who fits the bill best now that our old enemy is our ally" should have died out in the 19th century. At the least, the average person should not subscribe to this thinking.

China is not our "inevitable adversary and eventual enemy".

[P_Funk]

Topic 4 (by P_Funk): I'm sorry, I've to tell, admiring and loving the founder of a country and treating him/her as a hero is something general, even he made mistakes. :cool: French loves Napoleon, doesn't they? (sorry I forgot how to spell him, tell me if I spelt him wrongly) yet he declared wars and lost thousands of men. The same goes to Germans' homage to Bismarck, who united German states and built a strong army, initiated the second industrial revolution and turned German to a center in scientific growth. Unfortunately, Bismarck indirected caused the 1st world war, and his treatment of France (by isolation) is still remembered by many French. No sooner had you reviewed all the founders of countries then you would discover that all of them do make mistakes, but their name lives forever in peoples' mind. Founders arn't God. They do commit mistakes! Remember the tale of Washington who cut down his dad's tree! Being a Chinese, if you think Mao never did anything wrong, that's normal. If you are a French, and you think Napoleon is a hero, instead of a villian who slaghtered men in different wars, that's acceptable. Now, don't mess with Mao anymore. You can't justify yourself if we compare him to Napoleon, can you?

I think that its fair to say that the cult of personality around Mao that comes out of China is a bit stronger and often more irrational in many people than say those that look to Napoleon as a hero. And secondly you can't dismiss the very strong culture controls that the Chinese government has been using for decades to instill these kinds of feelings of nationalism and adoration for their benevolent leader. To say that simply because he was at the head of your nation's current founding is not a reason to dismiss those that seem to be unable to come to terms with the actions that actualy took place. I mentioned that girl in college who said Mao was great but couldn't actually articulate why. She was very distressed by that. Why? Its a bit weirder than the normal hero worship. I have an affection for Pierre Trudeau but I don't go running to my room when someone says he isn't all I say he is.

[August]

Peterloo, thanks for sharing your perspective :yep:

The nationalist attitude of "who is our enemy, we have to have an enemy, let's see, who fits the bill best now that our old enemy is our ally" should have died out in the 19th century. At the least, the average person should not subscribe to this thinking.

China is not our "inevitable adversary and eventual enemy".

The only problem with that sentiment is that it will take both sides to believe it in order for it to work.

[August]

Topic 3: Enviromental problem
Aah! This oldie. Seems that those Americans like to attack us using this excuse / reason. While China has already "surpassed" U.S.A to be the largest CO2 releaser, I've to point out, counting the amount of release instead of the average release of CO2 per head is an abuse to satistics. There are 1.3 Billion people in China. That the more people, the more CO2 is widely accepted among all of us, however, U.S.A. still refuses to take this into account while they do their maths. Including the no. of people in China, I've to tell, unfortunately, USA is the highest CO2 releaser per man, and the "legacy" made by U.S.A. is still remain intact. Chinese needs to "work" many times harder before they can even surpass and become the "champion" in emission of CO2 :|\\

Per capita doesn't really mean much when you're talking about national pollution rates. Person A can pollute 10 times more than person C, but if there is only one person A and 1000 person C's on the same amount of land we still have more damage from the C's than the A's.

Every type of pollution has it's source. With China it's her inability to control her over population problem. You still have hundreds of millions of people living in poverty and already you've overtaken western nations in pollution output (and it ain't all about Co2). Were you to raise their overall standard of living to anything approaching western standards it would have dire effects for the entire planet.

[geetrue]

The generals and admirals in China talk about who their enemy is, correct?

The generals and admirals of America talk about who their enemy is, correct?

How often in a normal day, week or month does the others country come into focus for long range strategic planning?

This is a war of minds ... I say China is bent on being bigger and better than the USA ... It's a battle for what we think.
This battle is behind closed doors.

I say America is already the winner ... we do not take China too lightly and neither do we have to compete with China for anything.

When people in China fly anywhere they usually fly Boeing.
How long would it take for American's to fly in a Chinese built passenger plane?

It's a battle of the mind ... America is not playing catch up ...
China is ... :yep:

[peterloo]

Aah. Enviromental issue.

First, I must admit that China do have serious enviromental problem. A lake in China had algal bloom this June, causing water unsafe to drink and ending thousands of peoples' water supply. Sarcastic as it may seem, Beijing, uh, the capital, is listed is one of the MOST polluted city in the globe.

However, I should also point out corruption :down: and lack of awareness of government officials should be blamed for this. Notwithstanding the bribe offered by those firms (incl. foreign investors), they simply close their eye and neglect the consequence of allowing polluting firms to work. Lack of awareness puts the enviroment at stake as well.

You loves money, don't you? Unfortunately, some Chinese, I'd to say, loves money in the way that "the more, the better" concept dominates the brain and other ideas like responsibility are "removed" in order to "accomodate" this.

I don't think I can solve that corruption issue. As you know, corruption lives in China for a long time and its effect ... (uh) :cry:

Aah. Mao. I live in HK so I'm free from those "nationalist education". I think the girl maybe nervous, as Mao did both good stuff and bad stuff. Every Chinese knows about the goodies, but understanding that Great Leap Forward, Cultral Revolution, ... are attributed to him, uh, mixed feeling rises. She may not be able to explain, as she's fear of an argument from you, using the disasters under his rule as example

IMO why don't anyone argue about my stance on Bismarck, he is great in Germans' eyes, isn't it? (correct me if I'm wrong. )

Someone says the world is now entering the 2nd Cold War, with propaganda compaigns. Sometimes the enemies will have some common points, while they may use ways to devalue each others. This is the trend of the World right now.

[Camaero]

As long as we think of ourselves as "us" and "them" then there will always be a distrust of "them" and no good will ever come of it. It is too bad that people don't understand that there is no "them" but only an "us".