Log in

View Full Version : Russia pulls out of key arms pact


Skybird
07-14-07, 05:01 AM
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/6898690.stm

The treaty was aiming at making surprising military attacks on other states impossible, and for that purpose was defining maximums for heavy weapons between the Atlantic and the Ural, negotiated in 1990 by 16 NATO states and 6 WP states participated. In 1999, 30 states negotiated over changes and amandements dealing with troops levels on national level, which should not be changed without consulatations with other states in the future. Russia ratified that treaty in 2004, but NATO states have refused to do so until today, demanding the Russian troops withdraw from Moldavia and Georgie as well.

Russia repeatedly threatened to put that treaty on ice if the NATO member would not follow the Russian example and ratify the treaty.

Recent diplomatic tensions over the ABM-system the US plan to establish in Poland and the Czech Republic did not help to ease the growing diplomatic rift. But the latter is not the reason for today'S news, but longterm changes in Russian policies (that I have forseen and predicted for some years now and back then earned nothing but laughter for ;) ). And it is nicely tied up in this BBC essay with which I agree very much:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/6236952.stm (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/6236952.stm)

It's no new cold war, but NATO and especially the US must learn that the times of Yeltzin's weakness and the raising of the oligarchs - helped by foreign and almost predatory investors - are over - you need to take Russia serious again. They reached that level faster then even I have estimated (I thought of 25-30 years, but now it is 18 years since German unification). The earlier you do, the earlier we will have a healing of relations with this competing neighbour again. Try to encircle them, isolate them with a ring of small tripwiring military bases even more and push them against the wall, and you must not be surprised if they start to push you back with growing anger and force. Europe must carefully assess if it really can afford such blows. My answer is No. Like it or not, but we need Russia more than Russia needs us. Plus: Russia's motivations and intentions maybe arwe that of a competitor, but they are transparent, and predictable. Taking that as a basis can form mutual trust. Trying to mutually cheat each other, cannot.

This should also be taken into account when still wanting to press for NATO memebership of Ukraine, and other political provocations.

Currently there is no heavy weight boxer of world format coming from the US. After Klitschko (Ukraine) lectured Lamon Brewster last weekend, almost all international top heavy weight boxers and title-holders are all - from the Slavic nations. :lol:

Happy Times
07-14-07, 05:16 AM
So what are you willing to give them? Give a finger and and you will loose your hand.

Skybird
07-14-07, 05:38 AM
No need for emotions and rethorics. NATO stopping to try lecturing them and stopping to place it's soldiers right on the Russian border would be good enough for a start. If I were the Russians and see it from there perspective, I would not only see little reason to trust NATO, but would feel almost betrayed.

It's not only our perspective that counts. We need to take into account their perspective, and how they must see things, as well.

Happy Times
07-14-07, 06:26 AM
No need for emotions and rethorics. NATO stopping to try lecturing them and stopping to place it's soldiers right on the Russian border would be good enough for a start. If I were the Russians and see it from there perspective, I would not only see little reason to trust NATO, but would feel almost betrayed.

It's not only our perspective that counts. We need to take into account their perspective, and how they must see things, as well.

They are also good at emotions and rhetorics. I dont mind if they get their conventional forces back up. Its only natural now that they have the money and a different borders with less "buffer zone". Its better than only having a nuclear deterrent. The fact is that the European side is the most secure they have, no need to stirr things up with Europeans. We are not a threat. I would concentrate on the Far East more. If they start flexing muscles for no reason they drive us in NATO also, if you look at the map im sure they dont want Finland in NATO.

XabbaRus
07-14-07, 09:24 AM
Quite frankly I can't blame them. The CFE treaty restrict the number of troops and equipment between the Atlantic and the Urals so pretty much restricts the Russians on how many forces they can have in THEIR own borders. Interestingly Russia ratified a revised treaty recently but NATO hasn't...

Yahoshua
07-14-07, 04:44 PM
For now I would call this a "Non-News" event that will be sorted out pretty soon via diplomatic channels. I'll start getting worried when they stop talking to eachother or when NATO starts making more aggressive diplomatic moves against Russia. But it's still something to keep our eye on.

XabbaRus
07-14-07, 05:26 PM
Well considering the US unilaterally pulled out of the ABM treaty I don't see why NATO are getting so upset. The CFE was obviously aimed at Russia. No one NATO country could take on Russia and I mean European countries. The CFE would impact Russia more in terms of trop deployment.

The way the news channels in the UK are talking about it you wold think Russia was going to invade at any moment. But then the news outlets in Britain are just so full of crap concerning Russia. You'd think that they were trying to bring back the cold war.

Kazuaki Shimazaki II
07-14-07, 10:36 PM
I agree. It was really hypocritical even at the start when they still had a Warsaw Pact. After decades of crowing about how their technological superiority will allow their inferior numbers to stop a Warsaw Pact attack, they suddenly turn all that around and say that equal forces (in numbers) on both sides is an even deal.

Yahoshua
07-15-07, 06:48 AM
Another day in political gaming that is creating unnecessary tension, nothing surprising.

Heibges
07-15-07, 11:39 AM
What happened to our "Peace Dividend"?

The Avon Lady
07-15-07, 11:58 AM
What happened to our "Peace Dividend"?
It lost interest? :88)

XabbaRus
07-15-07, 03:13 PM
It never existed.