Will Egypt follow Tunisia's lead? (merged)

[Vendor]

Cairo, Egypt (CNN) -- Thousands of people who filled the streets of Cairo on Tuesday hope their demonstrations against corruption and failing economic policies will cause upheaval in the government, like the similar protests in Tunisia that inspired them.But analysts caution that in Egypt, the protesters are up against a different set of challenges.

Juan Cole, a Middle East historian at the University of Michigan and blogger, describes Tunisia as "a little bit unique."

"There have been lots of civil wars. There's been lots of societies in turmoil. But this kind of phenomenon where you had crowds peacefully coming into the streets to demand a change in their own contract with their government -- in the Arab world proper, this is the first time it's happened and it's the first time since 1979 in the Middle East," Cole told CNN last week.

http://edition.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/af...ex.html?hpt=C1

Note: January 25, 2011 Updated 1828 GMT

[Oberon]

Will the Egyptian government come down? I doubt it, but it'll be a messy few days while the police restore order.
Algeria went up a few days back but the police cracked down on it hard, I imagine that we won't hear the end of that though.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereport...tests_the.html

Interesting points made in that article, comparing the situation in North Africa to the one in Central Europe circa 1989.

[Skybird]

I do not know mujch about Tunisia, I only transitted thorugh it, and very fast, so I do not comment. However, Egypt I repeatedly stayed in, though not as long as in Turkey and Iran. Last time was 2004, before in the mid- and late 90s. I think it is a mistake in case of Egypt to assume that more democrtacy and frfeedom there would lead to more demcoracy anmd freedom, I fear a religious radicalisation in the politcal landscape there. That the Muslim Brotherhood there immediately doubled their share in seats when Mubarak allowed slightly more freedom for opposition factions to candidate, should serve as a warning that should not be overheared. A more liberal political regime in Egypt I would only support if the weakenbing of the current regime is accompanied by sending the fundamentalists back under thewir stones, too. And I think these fundamentalists are too popular with huge parts of the population as if this would happen. A less Mubarakian, more religiously fundamentalistic Egypt would be a great concern for Israel and Saudi Arabia, for Israel: due to the huge influence the Brotherhood has in Egypt, for the Saudis: the brotherhood could turn into an even more powerful rival in the Saudi claim of being the keeper and representative of real Islam. Tensions are almost guaranteed between Saudi Wahabatism, and the MB. So far the brotherhood is tolerated in Saudi Arabaia, but the saudis keep a very sharp eye on it, and challenge them quite frequently.

[Vendor]

Tunisia is a country with many sides, not only that there is a previous Colonialism power that has made its mark, it might be worth a visit for study purposes .. sounds like I work at a travel agency,

[papa_smurf]

Similar protests have now spread to the Yemen, with thousands of protesters calling for Ali Abdullah Saleh, president for more than 30 years, to step down.

Where will these protests spread next


Source:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12295864

[Castout]

I hope Singapore but Singaporeans don't have pride nor courage needed. They would just bend their backs and cower. And it's much easier to control a small population in the size of a city.

Climate change is good for political change.

Israel won't be happy with Egypt situation since they would lose all their developed contacts within Hosni Mubarak government. But Egyptians will decide for Egypt. I hope whether the regime falls or not reform would be carried out nonetheless and the regime could hand its rod of power to another worthy successor and not to Mr Hosni son.

[MH]

Originally Posted by Castout

Israel won't be happy with Egypt situation since they would lose all their developed contacts within Hosni Mubarak government. But Egyptians will decide for Egypt. I hope whether the regime falls or not reform would be carried out nonetheless and the regime could hand its rod of power to another worthy successor and not to Mr Hosni son.

I really hope not.
There is no such thing as democracy in Arab coutures anyway.
The first that grabs the power just holds it or worse it will destabilize the country into civil war.
Making it good platform for terror organizations.
I just hope Egypt will not fall for islamic extremist because it will be sign to flash Israel Egyptian peace treaty down the toilet.

[Betonov]

Originally Posted by Castout

I hope Singapore but Singaporeans don't have pride nor courage needed. They would just bend their backs and cower.

It seems that our two nations are related

[Vendor]

Egypt will be reformed in the long term with or without support from the West, or they allied Arabs, which I believe

[commandosolo2009]

in Egypt, the government screws you, the regime blocks your fb, twitter, and myspace, and the police hurl rocks back atcha....


We've kissed reform a long time ago.... The only day maybe like Faruks stepping down the throne and ruling day.

Source: on the scene

[Vendor]

CAIRO -- Nobel Peace laureate Mohamed ElBaradei, Egypt's top democracy advocate and a key challenger to President Hosni Mubarak, returned to the country Thursday night after declaring he was ready to lead the grass-roots protest movement to a regime change.

Violence escalated outside the capital Cairo. In the flashpoint city of Suez, east of Cairo, rioters -- some wearing surgical masks or scarves over their faces to ward off tear gas -- attacked the main fire station in downtown and looted it before torching it with firebombs.

Firefighters jumped out windows to escape the flames, as heavy black smoke billowed from the burning building. In the northern Sinai area of Sheik Zuweid, several hundred bedouins and police exchanged live gunfire, killing a 17-year-old man.

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2011/01...est=latestnews


Note: Update record, Published January 27, 201

[MH]

Originally Posted by Vendor

CAIRO -- Nobel Peace laureate Mohamed ElBaradei, Egypt's top democracy advocate and a key challenger to President Hosni Mubarak, returned to the country Thursday night after declaring he was ready to lead the grass-roots protest movement to a regime change.

Acording to polls if Egypt was to hold free election Muslim Brothers would win.
That probably would make the election first and last one for a long time.
I really would like to see Egypt as democratic country but Arabs haven't learned the game yet.

[Skybird]

ElBaradei. Fan-tas-tic.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by MH

Acording to polls if Egypt was to hold free election Muslim Brothers would win.
That probably would make the election first and last one for a long time.
I really would like to see Egypt as democratic country but Arabs haven't learned the game yet.

Maybe they would even held elections again - if they do not need to fear the outcome.

Egypt is not Tunisia. Egypt has a strong fundamentalist movement, much stronger than there was/is any in Tunisia. The MB is deeply rooted in the structures of civilian society by maintaing a dense network of social wellfare, education and health caring. That'S why the regime always had a sharp eye and a ready fist on them.

But let'S not poaint the devil on the wall. The regime in Egypt is much stronger than that in Tunisia has ever been. Military and security are strong in numbers, too, and so far do not show any sign they would become disloyal to Mubarak. The real test will come in fall, at the elections. Mubarak shoulkd not push it to the limits by candidating again, but should install a loyal follower who would keep up the pressure on the Brotherhood. Even trying to install his son maybe would light a fire, so maybe he better gives up that idea as well.

Preventing the fundamentalism in Egypt breaking out all open must be seen as the Wests and Israel'S top interest.

I certainly do not expect EU politicians to understand this. And by what I heared from them said so far, especially from Germany dominus narcissimus of foreign policy, Guido Westerwelle, indeed they don't understand it at all.

[MH]

I don't doubt that Mubarak will stop those demonstrations from escalating.
He probably will make some changes and reforms but future of Egypt doesn't look promising anyways.
With Lebanon and Syria becoming proxy of Iran and Egypt possibly becoming hostile its looks like 70s again.
Damn Shi'its on the north and Sunni from the south and Israel in between lol