Blockade Iran

[JgzMan]

http://tinyurl.com/6banz8 - Leads to a page discussing the posibility of a Blockade of Iran.

I would like to ignore the accuracy of the article, ignore the political implications, bypass the sane/insane judgements against public figures. I would like to discuss the tactical theory of blockading the Strait of Hormuz.

http://tinyurl.com/3dq96o - Wikipedia: Strait of Hormuz

I understand that Iran has three Kilo-class submarines, (project 636, as I recall) which, in a shallow enviornment could certainly threaten surface ships. I would assume that a blockade would consist of a CVNBG, probrably with a 688i or two. I would not particularly wish to be assigned to a ship on the outer edge of that formation, although I suspect the carrier itself would be as safe as houses.

Any thoughts on this?

[Letum]

...why?

[Steel_Tomb]

There would be no economical point to blockading Iran? The sanctions placed already have had a minimal effect on the country anyway, pointless.

[Platapus]

After reading the resolution, I can't imagine this having any chance of passing.

212 days and counting

[STEED]

What is there to gain from it?

[STEED]

Originally Posted by Mikhayl

Slightly off thread but not that much, and at least this one is fun
http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/in...ndecision-5768

June 5, 2008

Erm.

[Skybird]

Does nothing. Several Western nations as well as Russia, India and China already undermine existing sanctions. why assuming they will stop that in the future?

The Iranians can easily establish a "counter-blockade": by mining the straits.

The straits are small enough to fully cover them with Iranian ASMs. Do not assume that Silkworms are the best they have. China has had a high interest to let them have better stuff. and both nations have no interest to let anybody know about such deals. that Hezbollah had MILAN and Russian latest generation ATGMs also was completely missed by Israeli and american intel before the Lebanon war.

You can only threaten sanctions when negotiating from a position of strength. The Western position is the position of weakness in this match as long as the option of all-out military strikes is excluded. I do not wish to demand nuclear strikes, but thinking fact-oriented I am sure that a lasting dampening effect on Iran's program cannot be acchieved without nuclear strikes: delay - yes. interruption - no. I am not willing to engage in military action that is half-hearted from the beginning.

There are strategic concerns about Iranian retaliation options that lead beyond Iran, or Hormuz.

You either shut down the program by force, or you accept a nuclear Iran, both civilian and militarily. Iran knows that the EU is willing to accept a nuclear Iran if needed, thus it's diplomacy plays the "winning time"-game. europeans buy it happily. I also do not buy that American determination to go all the way for the prevention of a nuclear Iran, not after the debacle in Iraq and Afghanistan. So, only the Israelis are left, and they have a vital interest and motive to be far more determined than the US and the EU together. If they can handle the challenge or not, I do not comment on, due to lacking knowledge.

[Skybird]

By the way, the leaked internal Pentagon report about the miserable safety standards of US nuclear sites in Europe and a considerably high number of nuclear devices gone missing should supplement the popular finger pointing at others when nuclear proliferation is discussed. Can you imagine the outcry if a nuclear device blows up in Central Park, or in Tiergarten, and analysis shows that it was build in the US...?

[STEED]

Originally Posted by Mikhayl

It was a supposed-to-be-funny reply to Platapus' countdown, you bugger :p

Are French sense of humor. :rotfl:

[Oberon]

Originally Posted by Skybird

By the way, the leaked internal Pentagon report about the miserable safety standards of US nuclear sites in Europe and a considerably high number of nuclear devices gone missing should supplement the popular finger pointing at others when nuclear proliferation is discussed. Can you imagine the outcry if a nuclear device blows up in Central Park, or in Tiergarten, and analysis shows that it was build in the US...?

I've seen this film before...

[PeriscopeDepth]

Originally Posted by Oberon

I've seen this film before...

The movie was pathetic. Book was waaaay better, of course.

PD

[Stealth Hunter]

Tom Clancy is the MAN.

Skybird also raises a good point. The Iranian Naval Forces, if this blockade does pass, will do nothing more than mine the strait. Given that they already know about this, they're probably already preparing or are prepared to commence mine laying. I'd also imagine that the Russians are watching the situation very carefully to protect their oil investments.

However, I don't think this will pass. Blockading Iran would simply piss them off, and then they'd refuse to give us oil, and then oil prices would skyrocket to over $200 bucks a barrel.

[PeriscopeDepth]

Originally Posted by Stealth Hunter

Tom Clancy is the MAN.

Skybird also raises a good point. The Iranian Naval Forces, if this blockade does pass, will do nothing more than mine the strait. Given that they already know about this, they're probably already preparing or are prepared to commence mine laying. I'd also imagine that the Russians are watching the situation very carefully to protect their oil investments.

However, I don't think this will pass. Blockading Iran would simply piss them off, and then they'd refuse to give us oil, and then oil prices would skyrocket to over $200 bucks a barrel.

It wouldn't be just Iranian oil shipments affected. Insurance prices for shipping in the Gulf would skyrocket. They don't even have to mine the strait, all it would take is them publically declaring they've done so and a single ship exploding.

And they Russians can watch all they want, and that is all they would end up doing.

PD

[PeriscopeDepth]

Originally Posted by PeriscopeDepth

It wouldn't be just Iranian oil shipments affected. Insurance prices for shipping in the Gulf would skyrocket. They don't even have to mine the strait, all it would take is them publically declaring they've done so and a single ship exploding.

And they Russians can watch all they want, and that is all they would end up doing.

PD

I fear I might have sounded little bleak here. Despite the economic strife, make no mistake what would become of the Iranian Navy (assuming we decided to limit it to that).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Praying_Mantis

PD

[Skybird]

Destroying the Iranian navy may please the ego, but in no way is a critical objective - doing so achieves nothing decisive.