Russian IL-20 shot down over Med

[ikalugin]

CNN coverage:
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/09/17/p...utm_term=image
Ria coverage:
https://translate.google.ru/translat...%2F&edit-text=

[Dmitry Markov]

That rare case when CNN tells nearly the same as our MD ((((


This kind of action is in Israel's style - however they should warn our military of their strike and they did it only one minute before attack. Seems that Israel is showing their reaction to Russia-Turkey latest agreement. Wonder if an idea to shove our IL-20 under Syrian AA missiles was initiative of somebody in Israel's lower commanding link ( say a young commander of flight was taking decisions by situation and thought it was a good idea without taking into account international relations) or was it approved by their higher command and political leaders ?

[Catfish]

I was somehow not aware that Israel was at war with Syriah/Assad

[Jimbuna]

So the Syrians shot it down in error?

[sonicninja]

Originally Posted by Catfish

I was somehow not aware that Israel was at war with Syriah/Assad

It seems that Isreal pretty much strike whoever they feel like it on a weekly basis.

[Aktungbby]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

So the Syrians shot it down in error?

PERHAPS NOT

He stressed that the Russian Il-20 was shot down "as a result of the response to the attack of the Israeli aircraft of the Syrian air defense systems."
The Ministry of Defense of Russia reported that on September 17 at about 11:00 pm Moscow time the connection with the returning to the airbase Khemeymim Russian Il-20 aircraft, which was 35 kilometers from the Mediterranean coast. According to the ministry, around this time four Israeli F-16 fighters attacked Syrian targets in Latakia. According to the Defense Ministry of Russia, under the cover of a Russian plane, Israeli pilots placed it under attack from Syria's air defense facilities, the IL-20 was shot down by a S-200 missile. Fifteen Russian servicemen were killed.The Russian Defense Ministry noted that Israeli aircraft deliberately created a dangerous situation in the area of ​​Latakia, the means of controlling aviation could not help seeing the IL-20, as it was landing. At the same time, Israel did not warn the command of the Russian group of troops in Syria about the planned operation in the area of ​​Latakia. The Russian military department regards Israel's provocative actions as hostile and reserves the right to adequate response actions.

AND SO IT GOES...PUTIN'S FORAY INTO THE MEDITERRANEAN AND SYRIAN AFFAIRS IN SUPPORT OF ASSAD HAS NOW GOTTEN PRICEY....

[Jimbuna]

Some might say 'Karma can sometimes be a bitch'.

[ikalugin]

Short summary of the Russian narrative:
- SAA did the shot down.
- Israel is partially responsible due to reckless endangerment.
- We would react to it by posturing.
- Israel appologised and is cooperative, so no extreme response is needed.

[Bilge_Rat]

Originally Posted by Catfish

I was somehow not aware that Israel was at war with Syriah/Assad

not Syria per se, but against Iranian forces based in Syria and their proxies.

good background overview here:

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/09/w...-air-base.html

[Catfish]

^ Thanks Bilge_Rat, good link

[ikalugin]

Syria is a messy war. Good that we are not escalating this incident beyond what is nessesary.

[Skybird]

I assume the Israeli fighters used the radar silhouette of the Russian plane as cover against Assad's air defence when they flew another raid on Syrian targets. The Syrians, so the idea, would not endanger a plane by their allies. In fact, manouvers like this are nothing knew at all. Well, apparently something went wrong.

Well, its a war zone, and its a hot war, and somebody's plane, which is none of ours, got shot down. End of story. If Russia would have downed an Israeli plane - that would be a story with potential. But not this one. Or have Russia's interests in Syria become out interests recently?

There is a big hi-ho-hello about the Turkish-Russian "deal" about Idlib. What a nonsense. Its an ultimatum: get out in time, or die. Syria openly talks of Assad taking control of the region, and the enemy fighters either retreat (where to? Idlib is their last stronghold. Into Turkey? The Turkey that nevertheless is EU candidate?Oh my, please not, even if they get supported by Erdoghan ) and hand over their weapons, since they must not fear revenge by Assad'S regime... or staying there and getting wiped out in some time. A "deal"? Russia and Syria can end the war with an unconditional victory (something I thought would be impossible some years ago), and complete annihilation of their enemy. Who dares to think they will let this chance pass unused after they did since years what they must do to get where they are now - fighting without remorse and bombing into niravana all and everything in their way...?

Its blablabla. Erdoghan will soon find out at his cost. Russia still has an open bill with him over that downed Russian plane some time ago. And Russia will not pass on the chance to weaken Turkish ambitions in the Black Sea region while Turkey is weakened by a serious financial and economic crisis and in past month alone had to sell over one fifth of its gold reserves to keep afloat. Erdoghan is weakened, and Putin will make use of it. He would be stupid not to do so.

[ikalugin]

After Iblib is finished there would be the Kurd question.

[Skybird]

After Idlib is finished, Syria lays in ruins and Assad has full grab of power again. No Kurdish question there. Who could ask the Kurdish question, would be dead, or outside Syria.


For Turkey this question remains. And that is why Erdoghan wants to prevent the offensive so that the Turkish-supported miiltias that Erdoghan also uses against the Kurds, can survive and do not get lost as a weapon to supress the Kurds.



And that is a good reason why not to stop the offensive. The west playxed the syria game terribly wrong from all beginning on, and it is clear since years that any road to peace leads over a full victory of Assad and Russia. The longer the West supports anti-Assad militias, the longer the war will continue and the longer the suffering will go on. By stopping this support, the war gets shortened - and Erdoghan gets hit, which is in Europe's interest. But they do not want to hit Erdoghan, instead they once again play fould on the Turks.


European malice and self-deception at its best.


No I have not turned into a fan of Assad, and I know perfectly well what kind of slaughterer he is. I am just a realist, and I reject wishful day dreams that get paid for in even more civilians' blood. The smalller of two messes is right this: the smaller of two messes.


Interetsingly, if I may remind of this, when all this started years ago, Israel was agauinst removing Assad fro power. The known and predictable evil is better than the unknown, unpredictable evil. What would be if Assad wuold get killed, nobody can say, and that holds its own threats and risk. But the once euphemistically so-called Arab spring gives us an idea, maybe.

[Mr Quatro]

This is my little contribution to the civil war in Syria ... I'll be glad when it is over and all of the displaced peoples that have traveled off to other countries will be able come home again. In fact maybe the UN should kick them out and say go home when the war is over.