Malaysia airlines B777 missing

[CCIP]

Originally Posted by GoldenRivet

for starters, as great as flight aware is, its not always that accurate. I have reviewed flights of my own that have suddenly zigged out into then ext state when i canceled IFR or flight following. Other times i have seen places where my route just completely stopped tracking (usually with a change from one ARTCC to another ARTCC while en route) giving the appearance that my flight vanished at cruise altitude.

I wouldnt jump to the conclusion that just because the flightaware.com route ends at a specific point that this is an accurate indication as to where the aircraft went down.

Yeah, definitely. Both flightaware and flightradar24 rely on volunteers with receivers to get their data, in this case ADS-B data, and so often they'll only track the aircraft as far as those receivers (which are mostly consumer-level hardware) and publically-available data will allow. They also can only track flights with filed plans and their software assumes that the aircraft is flying as filed.

That rough map location seems reasonable though, because reports say the plane never contacted the Vietnam ARTCC.

And I am concerned because even with engines out or other similar failures, at least one of their communication systems should've given a report. Even Air France 447 was sending automated ACARS reports as it was going down (though there was no engine failure there, to be fair). The fact that nearly 7 hours after losing contact the airline still didn't know where the aircraft was is very troubling to say the least.

I'd think there were so many Eyes on flights in that area of the Globe that someone has a pretty good clue.

[Admiral Halsey]

How long can the bird stay in the air fully fueled? If nothing is heard from her when that time is up THAT'S when you should really start worrying.

[CCIP]

Originally Posted by Admiral Halsey

How long can the bird stay in the air fully fueled? If nothing is heard from her when that time is up THAT'S when you should really start worrying.

Well for one, it's unlikely to have been fully fueled - doesn't make sense economically (carrying extra fuel makes you burn more fuel), and usually airlines plan fuel carefully and have very good tools for getting it loaded right. Typically you just have the required fuel, plus 1 hour (or a little more) in reserve.

The last MAS statement was more than 4 hours after the flight was scheduled to arrive in Beijing and more than 8 hours after lost contact. It would be on the ground by now one way or another.

[CCIP]

Huh, latest statement from the airline includes...

There has been speculation that the aircraft has landed at Nanming. We are working to verify the authenticity of the report and others.

I wouldn't bet too much on it, but it is a glimmer of hope in a dim situation at least

[Admiral Halsey]

Originally Posted by CCIP

Well for one, it's unlikely to have been fully fueled - doesn't make sense economically (carrying extra fuel makes you burn more fuel), and usually airlines plan fuel carefully. Typically you just have the required fuel, plus 1 hour (or a little more) in reserve.

The last MAS statement was more than 4 hours after the flight was scheduled to arrive in Beijing and more than 8 hours after lost contact. It would be on the ground by now one way or another.

Well that sucks. Only thing I can really says is thank god it wasn't an A380. Just one of those crashing with all souls lost would be worse then Tenerife disaster.

[krashkart]

My prayer is out and I have a few more to go. The news will have more information for us soon.

[GoldenRivet]

Assuming they were on someones radar screen for it to just suddenly go away screams catastrophic circumstances which occurred suddenly.

consider this though, flying through a volcanic ash cloud ( There are current eruptions in the area) could have eroded off various comm and transponder antennas to a point of rendering them incapable of transmitting.

something to think about

It would have been dark... and ash does not show up on radar. The first indication of entering it would likely be static discharges and st elmos fire

[Admiral Halsey]

Originally Posted by GoldenRivet

Assuming they were on someones radar screen for it to just suddenly go away screams catastrophic circumstances which occurred suddenly.

consider this though, flying through a volcanic ash cloud ( There are current eruptions in the area) could have eroded off various comm and transponder antennas to a point of rendering them incapable of transmitting.

something to think about

It would have been dark... and ash does not show up on radar. The first indication of entering it would likely be static discharges and st elmos fire

Well as CCIP stated above even if the thing was fully fueled it would already be on the ground one way or another by now. Also aren't flights supposed to be routed around Volcanic ash and even be grounded if the circumstances call for it?

Originally Posted by Admiral Halsey

How long can the bird stay in the air fully fueled?

All the way to the crash site.

[GoldenRivet]

Originally Posted by Admiral Halsey

Well as CCIP stated above even if the thing was fully fueled it would already be on the ground one way or another by now. Also aren't flights supposed to be routed around Volcanic ash and even be grounded if the circumstances call for it?

as there is no moisture in volcanic ash, it is invisible to radar, thus it has to be tracked visually or by satellite. in the dark this is tough to do without infra red.

its all academic until they find pieces

i'd suppose it exploded

[GoldenRivet]

UPDATE [11:32am]: VN Express, Vietnam's largest news site, reports that Vietnam Emergency Rescue Center just announced it has found signal of the missing plane at 9.50am 120 miles South West of Ca Mau cape, the Southern-most point of Vietnam.

The signal is believed to be the ELT (Emergency Locator Transmittor) , which can be activated manually by the flight crew or automatically upon impact.

http://my.news.yahoo.com/mas-aircraf...023820132.html

If they are in fact picking up the ELT the transmitter cannot be far from the surface of the water... they are close to closing in on the location of the crash i think.

[CCIP]

Yeah, I'm also seeing reports that the Vietnamese navy possibly saw it go down near an island.

[GoldenRivet]

ccip

fsx? noticed the virtual airline sig

i was ironically downloading a 777-300 for fsx when i saw this thread

[Oberon]

I'm just browsing pprune, which is really the place to go for updates and information in a time like this, according to one member who alledgedly flew the area at around the same time:

We entered HCM FIR last night westbound at FL340, passing Moxon (the boundary with WSJC) at about 1720Z, transitted HCM and Phnom Penh and exited, passing overhead PNH at about 1810Z.

We experienced no problem with VHF Comms with HCM Centre, and VVTS CPDLC/ADS also worked fine. We encountered no adverse wx - in fact it was a beautiful clear NE monsoon night, though there was some limited scattered lightning visible way off to the SW.

121.5 was congested, with both HCM Centre and another MH flight trying to contact MH370. HCM Centre were also making repeated attempts to contact the aircraft on the normal Centre frequency.

Apparently the aircraft involved suffered a scrape in 2012 with another aircraft which resulted in the following wing damage:



There are also reports that Chinese state media has censored the name of a Muslim Chinese artist who had been at an art conference, and reports that an italian man called Luigi Maraldi who is on the published passenger list was not actually on the flight and had reported his passport stolen in Thailand in 2013.

Given that the weather conditions in the area were good, there were no other reports of volcanic ash and the crew had no time to broadcast a distress signal, we're likely looking at a sudden airframe disintegration.
This is either caused through deliberate or non-deliberate means, however at the moment, given the recent attack in Kunming, as well as the passport information that has come to light...I'm going to put my foot out there and say that we're looking at a terrorist incident.
I can't completely rule out an accidental loss of airframe through a previously unknown structural defect, but something about this just keeps bringing me back to a terrorist attack.